Tag: Collapse

Afghanistan Collapse and Strikes in Somalia Increase Snags for Drone Warfare Guidelines

Post author By
Post date August 29, 2021

WASHINGTON – The Biden government has almost completed its policy of regulating drone strikes and commando strikes outside conventional war zones, but the abrupt collapse of the Afghan government and a recent spate of strikes in Somalia have created new problems, according to current and former officials.

The government has hoped to have its playbook ready by the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. It was slated as part of a broader recalibration as President Biden seeks to end the “eternal war” on terrorism and realign national security policy as the world has changed since 2001.

But his team’s ability to meet that deadline is in doubt in the face of rapidly changing events and uncertainties about the future. Many of the same officials who would develop and approve an updated drone plan for Afghanistan are focusing on evacuation operations in the capital, Kabul, officials said.

In January, Mr Biden set out to develop his own overarching policy for drone strikes targeting terrorist threats from countries where the United States does not have troops. His new administration viewed with suspicion how in 2017 President Donald J. Trump relaxed an earlier version of such rules imposed by President Barack Obama in 2013.

The Biden team has spent more than seven months reviewing these two guidelines – including the resulting civilian casualty figures – and assessing the evolution of the global terrorist threat. Their deliberations centered on a hybrid approach that would pick up elements from both the Obama and Trump systems, officials said.

As conceived now, the Biden-era playbook would revert to a centralized cross-agency review of proposed strikes – a hallmark of the Obama approach – in countries where such operations are rare, they said. But for places where strikes are likely to be more routine, like Somalia and Afghanistan, it would remain part of the Trump approach of issuing “country plans” that set policy goals and objectives, and then giving commanders in the field more leeway to make their own decisions to carry out special strikes.

Still, the country plans are more restrictive than the Trump versions, officials said. For example, protections against the death of civilian bystanders under Mr Trump often offered adult men less protection than women and children, but Biden’s future plans would make the protections on par. The Biden rules are also designed to require the military to seek the approval of State Department heads of mission for strikes, they said.

But the recent riots in Afghanistan have made what the Biden team originally envisioned for that country obsolete. Administrative officials now need to develop a new playbook to resolve any future strikes there before Mr Biden can put the general policy in place, officials said.

The future of the attacks in Afghanistan is particularly important as Mr Biden and his team defended his decision to withdraw American ground forces by pledging to maintain a robust ability to combat any new or resurgent terrorist threats emanating from there.

“We are conducting effective counterterrorism missions against terrorist groups in several countries where we do not have a permanent military presence,” Biden said this month. “If necessary, we will do the same in Afghanistan. We have developed counter-terrorism capabilities that enable us to keep a close eye on the direct threats to the United States in the region and to act quickly and decisively when necessary. “

However, their original plan for Afghanistan was based on a scenario in which the United States, with the consent of President Ashraf Ghani, would launch air strikes in support of his administration’s efforts to resist transnational terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda and the Islamic State that did Use land as a base of operations. The Taliban would vie separately for control of the country, but would be at least superficially neutral in this conflict category.

Instead, Mr Ghani fled, the Afghan army abdicated abruptly, and the Taliban came to power as the de facto government. In light of the uncertainty about the Taliban’s intentions, including whether they will host terror camps again as they did in the 1990s, a playbook must now be developed for all future counter-terrorism operations in Afghanistan, officials said.

The current and former officials who were informed of the deliberations on the drone attack policy spoke of the delicate internal discussions only on condition of anonymity. Asked for comment, the New York Times National Security Council press office retransmitted a statement it had made in March on an article on the policy review, which was at an early stage at the time.

Updated

Aug 28, 2021, 7:25 p.m. ET

The Biden plans make sense to both raise standards for civilian protection and provide greater flexibility for different environments around the world, said Luke Hartig, who is the National Security Council’s chief anti-terrorism director on drone attack policy worked for the Obama administration.

But he added: “Afghanistan will have to be very fluid. I would hate to have to write a guide for Afghanistan now. “

But creating a bureaucratic system and planning drone strikes contradicts Mr Biden’s repeated statements that he wants to end the eternal war, said Jack Goldsmith, a Harvard Law School professor who frequently writes on national security legal policy.

Understanding the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan

Map 1 of 5

Who are the Taliban? The Taliban emerged in 1994 amid the unrest following the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan in 1989. They used brutal public punishments, including flogging, amputation and mass executions, to enforce their rules. Here is more about their genesis and track record as rulers.

Who are the Taliban leaders? These are the top leaders of the Taliban, men who for years have been on the run, in hiding, in prison and dodging American drones. Little is known about them or how they plan to rule, including whether they will be as tolerant as they say they are.

What is happening to the women of Afghanistan? When the Taliban was last in power, they banned women and girls from most jobs or from going to school. Afghan women have gained a lot since the Taliban was overthrown, but now they fear that they are losing ground. Taliban officials are trying to reassure women that things will be different, but there are indications that they have begun to reintroduce the old order in at least some areas.

“I’m not blaming them because I think real threats remain,” he added. “It’s better to have a system to deal with them than just let the Pentagon do what it wants. But creating a system for drone attacks doesn’t sound like the way to end the eternal war. “

The need for a new Afghanistan playbook has added to another unsolved problem that surfaced late in the deliberations on Biden-era politics: the uncertainty about how much leeway the military should have to launch attacks in defense of partner forces without the usual steps to take review.

This issue came into focus after the military’s Africa command launched three drone strikes against the al-Shabab militant group in Somalia in late July and early August, breaking a lull that had not been there for six months Had carried out more air strikes.

The hiatus followed a policy directive from the President’s National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, shortly after Mr Biden’s inauguration on January 20. Under the temporary rule, all drone strikes outside the battlefield zones had to be approved by the White House while the new government drafted its policy.

However, the policy included an exception for strikes in self-defense. And when the military resumed attacks against al Shabab, they invoked this exception instead of seeking prior White House approval.

The catch was that those at risk were Somali government forces that had marched out against Al Shabab, not Americans. Instead, the Africa Command described the attacks as “collective self-defense” by a partner force. She said this week that she carried out another such strike in defense of “our Somali partners”.

That the military can routinely bypass normal drone strike procedures by invoking the need to defend partner forces – including some that may be threatened by adversaries who are not part of the US Congress-approved war against al-Qaeda and theirs Descendants are – urged doubting whether the new policy would manage to control air strikes away from conventional battlefields more strictly, officials said.

As a result, the government has begun addressing the issue, including the ability to tighten the standards for when commanders can view a foreign unit as a partner and clean up the list of such groups. (The comprehensive list is classified, officials said.)

That problem was still unresolved, officials said when the case of Afghanistan threw the government’s anti-terrorist strike policy into major turmoil. But the evacuation of the Afghan army has made things easier in one respect: there seem to be no partner forces left to defend in this country.

Eric Schmitt contributed to the reporting.

Tags Afghanistan, Collapse, Drone, raise, Rules, Snags, Somalia, Strikes, Warfare

Politics

Intelligence Warned of Afghanistan Navy Collapse, Regardless of Biden’s Assurances

Post author By
Post date August 18, 2021

WASHINGTON – Geheime Einschätzungen amerikanischer Geheimdienste im Laufe des Sommers zeichneten ein zunehmend düsteres Bild der Aussicht auf eine Übernahme Afghanistans durch die Taliban und warnten vor dem schnellen Zusammenbruch des afghanischen Militärs, obwohl Präsident Biden und seine Berater öffentlich sagten, dass dies unwahrscheinlich sei so schnell, so aktuelle und ehemalige amerikanische Regierungsbeamte.

Im Juli wurden viele Geheimdienstberichte pessimistischer und stellten die Frage, ob afghanische Sicherheitskräfte ernsthaften Widerstand leisten würden und ob die Regierung in der Hauptstadt Kabul durchhalten könne. Präsident Biden sagte am 8. Juli, dass es unwahrscheinlich sei, dass die afghanische Regierung gestürzt werde und dass es keine chaotischen Evakuierungen von Amerikanern wie nach dem Ende des Vietnamkrieges geben werde.

Das Trommelfeuer der Warnungen im Sommer wirft die Frage auf, warum Beamte der Biden-Regierung und Militärplaner in Afghanistan auf den letzten Vorstoß der Taliban in Kabul, einschließlich des Versäumnisses, die Sicherheit am Hauptflughafen zu gewährleisten und Tausende weiterer Truppen zu hetzen, schlecht vorbereitet zu sein schienen zurück ins Land, um die endgültige Ausreise der Vereinigten Staaten zu schützen.

Ein Bericht im Juli – als Dutzende afghanischer Bezirke fielen und Taliban-Kämpfer mehrere Großstädte belagerten – legte die wachsenden Risiken für Kabul dar und stellte fest, dass die afghanische Regierung laut einer mit der Intelligenz.

Geheimdienste sagten voraus, dass es im Falle einer Eroberung der Städte durch die Taliban schnell zu einem kaskadenartigen Zusammenbruch kommen könnte und die afghanischen Sicherheitskräfte stark auseinanderfallen würden. Es ist unklar, ob andere Berichte während dieser Zeit ein optimistischeres Bild über die Fähigkeit des afghanischen Militärs und der Regierung in Kabul vermittelten, den Aufständischen standzuhalten.

Eine dem Kongress vorgelegte historische Analyse kam zu dem Schluss, dass die Taliban Lehren aus ihrer Übernahme des Landes in den 1990er Jahren gezogen hatten. Diesmal, so der Bericht, würde die militante Gruppe zunächst Grenzübergänge sichern, Provinzhauptstädte kommandieren und Teile des Nordens des Landes einnehmen, bevor sie in Kabul einmarschieren, eine Vorhersage, die sich als zutreffend erwies.

Aber wichtige amerikanische Entscheidungen wurden lange vor Juli getroffen, als sich die Geheimdienste einig waren, dass die afghanische Regierung bis zu zwei Jahre durchhalten könnte, was genügend Zeit für einen geordneten Austritt geblieben wäre. Als das Außenministerium am 27. April die Abschiebung von nicht unbedingt erforderlichem Personal aus der Botschaft in Kabul anordnete, lautete die allgemeine Einschätzung der Geheimdienste, dass eine Übernahme durch die Taliban nach Angaben von Verwaltungsbeamten noch mindestens 18 Monate entfernt sei.

Ein hochrangiger Verwaltungsbeamter, der unter der Bedingung der Anonymität sprach, um über die geheimen Geheimdienstberichte zu sprechen, sagte, dass die Geheimdienste selbst im Juli, als die Lage immer volatiler wurde, nie eine klare Vorhersage einer bevorstehenden Taliban-Übernahme gemacht hätten. Der Beamte sagte, dass ihre Einschätzungen auch nicht mit „hohem Vertrauen“ bewertet wurden, dem höchsten Grad an Sicherheit der Agenturen.

Noch eine Woche vor dem Fall Kabuls ergab die allgemeine Analyse des Geheimdienstes, dass eine Übernahme durch die Taliban noch nicht unvermeidlich war, sagte der Beamte. Beamte sagten auch, dass er und seine Adjutanten rund um die Zeit der Äußerungen von Herrn Biden im Juli, in denen er die afghanischen Führer aufforderte, „zusammenzukommen“, sie privat dazu drängten, Zugeständnisse zu machen, die den Geheimdienstberichten zufolge notwendig waren, um einen Zusammenbruch der Regierung abzuwenden .

Sprecherinnen der CIA und der Direktor des nationalen Geheimdienstes lehnten es ab, die Einschätzungen des Weißen Hauses zu diskutieren. Geheimdienstbeamte räumten jedoch ein, dass die Analysen ihrer Agenturen nüchtern gewesen seien und sich die Einschätzungen in den letzten Wochen und Monaten geändert hätten.

Während seiner Rede am Montag sagte Herr Biden, seine Regierung habe „für jeden Notfall geplant“ in Afghanistan, aber die Situation habe sich „schneller entwickelt, als wir erwartet hatten“.

Angesichts klarer Beweise für den Zusammenbruch der afghanischen Streitkräfte haben amerikanische Beamte begonnen, intern die Schuld zu geben, einschließlich Aussagen aus dem Weißen Haus, die auf ein Versagen der Geheimdienste hindeuten. Solche Fingerzeigen treten oft nach größeren Zusammenbrüchen der nationalen Sicherheit auf, aber es wird Wochen oder Monate dauern, bis ein vollständigeres Bild der Entscheidungsfindung in der Biden-Regierung entsteht, die in den letzten Tagen zu dem Chaos in Kabul geführt hat.

Geheimdienste haben lange einen endgültigen Sieg der Taliban vorhergesagt, noch bevor Präsident Donald J. Trump und Herr Biden beschlossen haben, ihre Truppen abzuziehen. Diese Schätzungen lieferten eine Reihe von Zeitplänen. Sie stellten zwar Fragen nach dem Willen der afghanischen Sicherheitskräfte, ohne Amerikaner an ihrer Seite zu kämpfen, sagten jedoch keinen Zusammenbruch innerhalb von Wochen voraus.

In den letzten Monaten wurden die Einschätzungen jedoch immer pessimistischer, da die Taliban laut aktuellen und ehemaligen Beamten größere Gewinne erzielten. In den Berichten dieses Sommers wurde der Kampfwille der afghanischen Sicherheitskräfte und die Fähigkeit der Regierung in Kabul, die Macht zu halten, in krassen Worten in Frage gestellt. Mit jedem Bericht über Massendestruktionen, sagte ein ehemaliger Beamter, sah die afghanische Regierung weniger stabil aus.

Ein weiterer CIA-Bericht vom Juli stellte fest, dass die Sicherheitskräfte und die Zentralregierung die Kontrolle über die Straßen nach Kabul verloren hatten, und stellte fest, dass die Lebensfähigkeit der Zentralregierung ernsthaft gefährdet sei. In anderen Berichten der Geheimdienst- und Forschungsabteilung des Außenministeriums wurde auch darauf hingewiesen, dass die afghanischen Streitkräfte im Kampf gegen die Taliban versagt haben und dass die sich verschlechternden Sicherheitsbedingungen nach Angaben von Regierungsvertretern zum Zusammenbruch der Regierung führen könnten.

„Geheimdienst ist nicht zu sagen, dass am 15. August der Sturz der afghanischen Regierung bevorsteht“, sagte Timothy S. Bergreen, ein ehemaliger Stabsdirektor des Geheimdienstausschusses des Repräsentantenhauses. „Aber was jeder wusste, ist, dass die Afghanen ohne die Verstärkung der internationalen Streitkräfte und insbesondere unserer Streitkräfte nicht in der Lage waren, sich selbst zu verteidigen oder zu regieren.“

Aktualisiert

August 18, 2021, 7:57 Uhr ET

Afghanistan erhielt in der im April veröffentlichten jährlichen Bedrohungsanalyse des Büros des Direktors des Nationalen Geheimdienstes wenig Aufmerksamkeit; Aber die kurze Diskussion war düster, da die Taliban zuversichtlich waren, einen militärischen Sieg erringen zu können.

„Die Taliban werden wahrscheinlich auf dem Schlachtfeld Gewinne erzielen, und die afghanische Regierung wird sich bemühen, die Taliban in Schach zu halten, wenn die Koalition ihre Unterstützung zurückzieht“, heißt es in dem Bericht.

Aktuelle und ehemalige Beamte sagten jedoch, dass die CIA zwar einen Zusammenbruch der afghanischen Regierung vorhergesagt habe, es jedoch oft schwierig sei, Analysten der Agentur dazu zu bringen, klar vorherzusagen, wie schnell dies geschehen würde, insbesondere wie es Mr. Trump und dann Mr. Biden machten Entscheidungen darüber, wie schnell Truppen abgezogen werden sollen.

Zwei ehemalige hochrangige Beamte der Trump-Administration, die einige der Einschätzungen der CIA zu Afghanistan überprüften, sagten, die Geheimdienste hätten Warnungen vor der Stärke der afghanischen Regierung und der Sicherheitskräfte abgegeben. Die Agentur weigerte sich jedoch, einen genauen Zeitrahmen anzugeben, und die Einschätzungen konnten oft auf verschiedene Weise interpretiert werden, einschließlich der Schlussfolgerung, dass Afghanistan schnell oder möglicherweise im Laufe der Zeit fallen könnte.

Scharfe Meinungsverschiedenheiten gab es auch in der Geheimdienstgemeinschaft. Die CIA sieht die Ausbildung der afghanischen Sicherheitskräfte seit Jahren pessimistisch. Aber der Defence Intelligence Agency und andere Geheimdienste innerhalb des Pentagons gaben laut aktuellen und ehemaligen Beamten optimistischere Einschätzungen über die Bereitschaft der Afghanen ab.

Militärische und geheimdienstliche Einschätzungen, die voraussagen, dass die Regierung in Kabul mindestens ein Jahr vor einer Machtübernahme durch die Taliban durchhalten könnte, wurden auf einer Prämisse aufgebaut, die sich als fehlerhaft erwies: dass die afghanische Armee kämpfen würde.

„Die meisten US-Bewertungen innerhalb und außerhalb der US-Regierung hatten sich darauf konzentriert, wie gut die afghanischen Sicherheitskräfte im Kampf mit den Taliban abschneiden würden. In Wirklichkeit haben sie nie wirklich gekämpft“, sagte Seth G. Jones, ein Afghanistan-Experte am Zentrum für strategische und internationale Studien in Washington, während des Taliban-Blitzes im ganzen Land.

Die Taliban-Übernahme in Afghanistan verstehen

Karte 1 von 5

Wer sind die Taliban? Die Taliban entstanden 1994 inmitten der Unruhen nach dem Abzug der sowjetischen Truppen aus Afghanistan 1989. Sie setzten brutale öffentliche Strafen ein, darunter Auspeitschungen, Amputationen und Massenhinrichtungen, um ihre Regeln durchzusetzen. Hier ist mehr über ihre Entstehungsgeschichte und ihre Bilanz als Herrscher.

Wer sind die Taliban-Führer? Dies sind die obersten Anführer der Taliban, Männer, die jahrelang auf der Flucht, untergetaucht, im Gefängnis und amerikanischen Drohnen ausgewichen sind. Sie tauchen jetzt aus der Dunkelheit auf, aber über sie oder ihre Regierungspläne ist wenig bekannt.

Wie haben die Taliban die Kontrolle erlangt? Sehen Sie, wie die Taliban die Kontrolle in Afghanistan übernahmen und in wenigen Monaten 20 Jahre Verteidigung zunichte machten.

Vor zwei Jahrzehnten spielte sich diese Dynamik in umgekehrter Richtung ab. Als Ende 2001 von den USA unterstützte afghanische Milizen begannen, den Taliban Territorium zu erobern, brachen die Taliban-Kämpfer relativ schnell zusammen, und sowohl Kabul als auch Kandahar fielen noch in diesem Jahr.

Einige Taliban ergaben sich, andere wechselten die Seiten, und eine weitaus größere Zahl verschmolz einfach mit der Bevölkerung, um mit der Planung eines 20-jährigen Aufstands zu beginnen.

Geheimdienstbeamte haben lange beobachtet, dass Afghanen kalte Berechnungen darüber anstellen, wer in einem Konflikt wahrscheinlich die Oberhand gewinnen und die Siegerseite unterstützen wird ehemalige Analysten.

Der Kern des amerikanischen Verlustes in Afghanistan war die Unfähigkeit, eine eigenständige Sicherheitskraft aufzubauen, aber dieser Fehler wurde noch dadurch verschlimmert, dass Washington nicht auf diejenigen hörte, die Fragen zum afghanischen Militär aufwarfen.

Ein Teil des Problems, so ehemalige Beamte, sei, dass die aufrichtige Haltung des Militärs häufig eine ehrliche und genaue Einschätzung der Leistung der afghanischen Sicherheitskräfte verhindert habe. Obwohl niemand blind gegenüber Desertionen oder Schlachtfeldverlusten war, zögerten amerikanische Kommandeure, die mit der Ausbildung des afghanischen Militärs beauftragt waren, zuzugeben, dass ihre Bemühungen fehlgeschlagen waren.

Selbst Militärs, die den Fähigkeiten der afghanischen Sicherheitskräfte skeptisch gegenüberstanden, glaubten, dass sie nach dem Abzug der Amerikaner noch eine Zeit lang kämpfen würden.

Seit Monaten ziehen Geheimdienstler Vergleiche zwischen den afghanischen nationalen Sicherheitskräften und der südvietnamesischen Armee am Ende des Vietnamkriegs. Es dauerte zwei Jahre, bis das Militär Südvietnams, bekannt unter dem amerikanischen Akronym ARVN, zusammenbrach, nachdem die Vereinigten Staaten Truppen und finanzielle Unterstützung abgezogen hatten. Optimisten glaubten, dass das afghanische Militär – mit amerikanischer Finanzierung – fast genauso lange bestehen könnte. Pessimisten dachten, es wäre viel kürzer.

„In den letzten zwei oder drei Jahren habe ich reumütig bemerkt, dass ANSF für ARVN afghanisch ist“, sagte Bergreen, der von 2003 bis 2021 auf dem Capitol Hill für Geheimdienstangelegenheiten arbeitete bis zum langfristigen Kampf. Aber ich glaube nicht, dass jemand damit gerechnet hat, dass sie so schnell dahinschmelzen.“

Die jüngsten diplomatischen Manöver der Taliban mit anderen Ländern in der Region, insbesondere China, hätten einer Taliban-Übernahme einen Hauch von Unvermeidlichkeit verliehen, die die afghanischen Regierungstruppen weiter demoralisierte, sagte Jones.

Am Ende, so Analysten, haben die Taliban mit der Strategie gewonnen, die sich während des jahrzehntelangen Krieges in Afghanistan so oft als erfolgreich erwiesen hat – sie überdauerten ihren Gegner.

„Ich bin nicht überrascht, dass es so schnell und umfassend war“, sagte Lisa Maddox, eine ehemalige CIA-Analystin. „Die Taliban haben sicherlich ihre Fähigkeit bewiesen, durchzuhalten, sich niederzukauern und zurückzukommen, selbst nachdem sie zurückgeschlagen wurden. Und Sie haben eine Bevölkerung, die so müde und konfliktmüde ist, dass sie die Siegerseite umdrehen und unterstützen wird, damit sie überleben kann.“

Tags Afghanistan, Assurances, Bidens, Collapse, Intelligence, Military, Warned

World News

The Afghan Navy Was Constructed Over 20 Years. How Did It Collapse So Shortly?

Post author By
Post date August 13, 2021

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan – The surrenders appear to be as quick as the Taliban can travel.

Under the pressure of an advance by the Taliban that began in May, the Afghan security forces have collapsed in more than 15 cities in the past few days. Officials on Friday confirmed it included two of the country’s main provincial capitals: Kandahar and Herat.

The swift offensive has resulted in mass surrenders, captured helicopters, and millions of dollars in American equipment displayed on grainy cellphone videos by the Taliban. Fierce fighting had been going on for weeks in the outskirts of some cities, but the Taliban eventually overtook their lines of defense and then invaded with little or no resistance.

This implosion comes despite the fact that the United States has poured more than $ 83 billion in weapons, equipment, and training into the country’s security forces over two decades.

Building the Afghan security apparatus was one of the key elements of the Obama administration’s strategy, which nearly a decade ago sought a way to surrender security and leave. Out of these efforts, an army modeled on the US military emerged, an Afghan institution that was to outlast the American war.

But it will likely be gone before the United States is.

As Afghanistan’s future seems increasingly uncertain, one thing is becoming abundantly clear: the United States’s 20-year effort to rebuild Afghanistan’s military into a robust and independent force has failed, and that failure is now happening in real time as the country is under control the Taliban gets caught.

How the Afghan military fell apart for the first time was evident not last week but months ago in an accumulation of casualties that began before President Biden announced that the United States would withdraw by September 11th.

It began with individual outposts in rural areas, in which starving and ammunition-poor soldiers and police units were surrounded by Taliban fighters and promised a safe passage if they surrender and leave their equipment behind, and the insurgents slowly gaining control over roads and then whole Districts existed. When the positions collapsed, the complaint was almost always the same: there was no air support, or supplies and groceries had run out.

But even before that, the systemic weaknesses of the Afghan security forces were evident, which on paper numbered around 300,000 people, but in the last few days, according to US officials, only amounted to a sixth of them. These shortcomings can be attributed to numerous problems arising from the West’s insistence on building a fully modern military, with all the necessary logistics and supply complexities, which have proven unsustainable without the United States and its NATO allies.

Soldiers and police officers have expressed deeper and deeper grudges against the Afghan leadership. Officials have often turned a blind eye knowing that the real number of Afghan forces was much lower than what the books said, skewed by the corruption and secrecy they tacitly accepted.

And when the Taliban gained momentum after the US withdrawal announcement, it only reinforced belief that it was not worth dying for the fighting within the security forces – for President Ashraf Ghani’s administration. In interview after interview, soldiers and police officers described moments of desperation and abandonment.

On a front line in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar last week, the Afghan security forces’ apparent inability to repel the Taliban’s devastating offensive was due to potatoes.

After weeks of fighting, a carton full of slimy potatoes should pass as a police unit’s daily ration. They had had nothing but tubers of various shapes for several days, and their hunger and tiredness wore them down.

“Those fries won’t hold those front lines!” Yelled one policeman, disgusted by the lack of support they received in the second largest city in the country.

That front line collapsed on Thursday and Kandahar was under Taliban control by Friday morning.

In recent weeks, Afghan troops have been consolidated to defend Afghanistan’s 34 provincial capitals as the Taliban focused on urban attacks from attacks on rural areas. But this strategy proved in vain when the insurgent fighters overran one city after another, captured around half of the provincial capitals of Afghanistan and encircled Kabul within a week.

“They are just trying to get us ready,” said Abdulhai, 45, a police chief who held the Kandahar Northern Front last week.

The Afghan security forces have suffered well over 60,000 deaths since 2001. But Abdulhai was not talking about the Taliban, but about his own government, which he felt was so incapable that it had to be part of a larger plan to cede territory to the Taliban.

The months of defeats seemed to peak on Wednesday when the entire headquarters of an Afghan army corps – the 217th – at Kunduz airport in the north of the city fell to the Taliban. The insurgents captured a disused attack helicopter. Images of a US-supplied drone seized by the Taliban were circulating on the Internet along with images of rows of armored vehicles.

Brig. General Abbas Tawakoli, commander of the 217th Afghan Army Corps, who was in a nearby province when his base fell, echoed Abdulhai’s sentiments as reasons for his troops’ defeat on the battlefield.

“Unfortunately, a number of MPs and politicians knowingly and unknowingly kindled the flame kindled by the enemy,” General Tawakoli said just hours after the Taliban released videos of their fighters raiding the general’s sprawling base.

“No region fell from the war, but from the psychological war,” he said.

This psychological war has taken place on different levels.

Afghan pilots say their leadership cares more about the condition of planes than about the people who fly them: men and at least one woman burned out from countless evacuation missions – often under fire – while the Taliban wages a brutal assassination campaign against them .

The remnants of the elite commandos, used to holding territory still under government control, are transported from one province to another with no clear destination and very little sleep.

The ethnically oriented militias, known as forces to reinforce the lines of government, have also been almost all overrun.

The second city to fall this week was Sheberghan in northern Afghanistan, a capital defended by a formidable force commanded by Marshal Abdul Rashid Dostum, a notorious warlord and former Afghan vice president who has survived for the past 40 years should of the war by cutting deals and changing sides.

Another prominent Afghan warlord and former governor, Mohammad Ismail Khan, surrendered on Friday.

“We are drowning in corruption,” said Abdul Haleem, 38, a police officer on the Kandahar frontline earlier this month. His special unit was half-strength – 15 out of 30 – and several of his comrades who stayed at the front were there because their villages had been captured.

“How are we supposed to defeat the Taliban with so much ammunition?” He said. The heavy machine gun, for which his unit had very few bullets, broke later that night.

On Thursday it was unclear whether Mr. Haleem was still alive and what was left of his comrades.

As the Taliban ransack the country almost continuously, their strength is in question. Official estimates have long been between 50,000 and 100,000 fighters. Now that number is even darker as the international armed forces and intelligence capabilities retreat.

Some US officials say Taliban numbers have risen due to the influx of foreign fighters and an aggressive conscription campaign in captured areas. Other experts say the Taliban got much of their strength from Pakistan.

Yet even in the midst of a possible total surrender by the Afghan government and its armed forces, troops are still fighting.

As in any conflict since the dawn of time, soldiers and police officers mostly fight for each other and for the subordinate leaders who inspire them to fight in spite of the hell that lies ahead.

When the Taliban invaded the outskirts of the southern city of Lashkar Gah in May, a hodgepodge of border guards held the line. The police officers who were supposed to defend the area had long since surrendered, withdrawn or been paid by the Taliban, as happened in many parts of the country over the past year.

Armed with rifles and machine guns, some in uniform, some not, the border guards beamed when their stubborn captain Ezzatullah Tofan arrived at their grenade-shattered position, a house abandoned during the fighting.

He always comes to the rescue, said one soldier.

When the Taliban were advancing into Lashkar Gah, provincial capital of Helmand Province, late last month, an outpost called their headquarters elsewhere in the city and asked for reinforcements. In an audio recording obtained from the New York Times, the commander in chief on the other end told them to stay and fight.

Captain Tofan bring reinforcements, he said, and should hold out a little longer. That was about two weeks ago.

On Friday, despite weary resistance from the Afghan military, repeated reinforcement flights and even American B-52 bombers, the city was in the hands of the Taliban.

Taimoor Shah and Jim Huylebroek contributed to coverage from Kandahar, Afghanistan. Najim Rahim and Fatima Faizi contributed from Kabul. Eric Schmitt contributed to the reporting.

Tags Afghan, Built, Collapse, Military, quickly, years

World News

Three extra main cities are underneath Taliban management, as the federal government’s forces close to collapse.

Post author By
Post date August 13, 2021

KABUL, Afghanistan – Three large cities in western and southern Afghanistan were confirmed to have fallen to the Taliban as the insurgent race for control of the country accelerated.

The Taliban captured Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand province, on Friday morning after a week-long battle that left parts of the city to rubble, hospitals full of wounded and dying, and residents asking what would come next under their new rulers. Hours earlier, the insurgents had captured Herat, a cultural center in the west, and Kandahar, the country’s second largest city, where the Taliban first proclaimed their so-called emirate in the 1990s.

The speed of urban collapse, combined with the announcement by American officials Thursday that they would evacuate most of the U.S. embassy, has compounded panic across the country as thousands attempt to flee the Taliban’s advance.

Only three large Afghan cities – including the capital Kabul – remain under state control, one is besieged by the Taliban. With the collapse of Lashkar Gah and Kandahar, the Taliban now effectively control southern Afghanistan, a powerful symbol of their resurrection, just weeks before the United States will withdraw completely from the country.

Last week, the Taliban took over Afghan cities in a swift offensive, placing them well-positioned to attack Kabul. The government’s armed forces appear to be on the verge of complete collapse. Some American officials fear that the Afghan government will not hold out for another month.

Helmand Province is an unstable area that has been largely controlled by the Taliban since 2015. In recent months, the Afghan government has struggled to hold its own there, and recent air strikes by the United States and the Afghan Air Forces in the region have failed to halt the Taliban’s offensive.

Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand, has been on the brink of disaster for more than a decade. Helmand has long been the home of the Taliban, which after the rise of the group in neighboring Kandahar in 1994 spread into the province and earned millions there from the illegal sale of opium poppies.

The fall of Lashkar Gah is a sad coda for the American and British military missions to Helmand, which together lasted over a decade. Both countries focused much of their efforts on securing the province, losing hundreds of troops there to roadside bombs and brutal shootings.

Kandahar in particular is a huge asset to the Taliban. It is the economic center of southern Afghanistan, and it was the birthplace of the uprisings in the 1990s and served as the militant capital for part of their five-year rule. By conquering the city, the Taliban can effectively proclaim a return to power, if not complete control.

On Friday, officials from Uruzgan and Zabul, two provinces long believed to be the Taliban’s heartland, said local elders in both are negotiating a full surrender of the territory to the insurgent group.

Taimoor Shah in Kandahar contributed to the coverage.

Tags cities, Collapse, control, forces, governments, Major, Taliban

World News

Collapse: Inside Lebanon’s Worst Financial Meltdown in Extra Than a Century

Post author By
Post date August 4, 2021

TRIPOLI, Lebanon — Rania Mustafa’s living room recalls a not-so-distant past, when the modest salary of a security guard in Lebanon could buy an air-conditioner, plush furniture and a flat-screen TV.

But as the country’s economic crisis worsened, she lost her job and watched her savings evaporate. Now, she plans to sell her furniture to pay the rent and struggles to afford food, much less electricity or a dentist to fix her 10-year-old daughter’s broken molar.

For dinner on a recent night, lit by a single cellphone, the family shared thin potato sandwiches donated by a neighbor. The girl chewed gingerly on one side of her mouth to avoid her damaged tooth.

“I have no idea how we’ll continue,” said Ms. Mustafa, 40, at home in Tripoli, Lebanon’s second-largest city, after Beirut.

Lebanon, a small Mediterranean country still haunted by a 15-year civil war that ended in 1990, is in the throes of a financial collapse that the World Bank has said could rank among the world’s worst since the mid-1800s. It is closing like a vise on families whose money has plummeted in value while the cost of nearly everything has skyrocketed.

Since fall 2019, the Lebanese pound has lost 90 percent of its value, and annual inflation in 2020 was 84.9 percent. As of June, prices of consumer goods had nearly quadrupled in the previous two years, according to government statistics. The huge explosion one year ago in the port of Beirut, which killed more than 200 people and left a large swath of the capital in shambles, only added to the desperation.

On Wednesday, Lebanon observed a day of mourning to mark the anniversary of the blast, and government offices and most businesses were closed for the occasion. Large crowds gathered around Beirut to commemorate the day and denounce their government, which has failed to determine what caused the explosion and who was responsible, much less to hold anyone accountable.

The blast exacerbated the country’s economic crisis, which was long in the making, and there is little relief in sight.

Years of corruption and bad policies have left the state deeply in debt and the central bank unable to keep propping up the currency, as it had for decades, because of a drop in foreign cash flows into the country. Now, the bottom has fallen out of the economy, leaving shortages of food, fuel and medicine.

All but the wealthiest Lebanese have cut meat from their diets and wait in long lines to fuel their cars, sweating through sweltering summer nights because of extended power cuts.

The country has long endured electricity shortages, a legacy of a state that has failed to ensure basic services. To cover the gaps left by the state power supply, residents rely on privately owned, diesel-powered generators.

But the currency collapse has undermined that patchwork system.

As imported fuel has gotten more expensive, power cuts from the grid have stretched from a few hours a day to as long as 23 hours. So demand for power from generators has risen, along with the cost of the fuel to run them.

The resulting price hike has turned a utility essential for business, health and comfort into a luxury many families can afford only in limited quantities, if at all.

Mustafa Nabo, from Syria, used to work long days on his electric sewing machine, powered by the grid and supplemental power from a generator.

Now, the price for generated power is nearly 10 times what it was before the crisis began, so he rushes to work as much as he can during the two hours he gets power from the grid. But less work means less money, and he has cut back on food.

“It is better to bring food than to pay for electricity,” Mr. Nabo said.

Across Lebanon, the fuel shortages have led to long lines at gas stations, where drivers wait for hours to buy only a few gallons, or none at all if the station runs out.

The supply of medicines has also become unreliable. The state is supposed to subsidize imports, but the crisis has strained that system, too.

At a pharmacy in Tripoli, a line stretched from the sidewalk to the cash register, where anxious shoppers sought medicines that are now scarce after long being easy to obtain, such as pain killers and blood pressure medications. Other products had disappeared altogether, such as drugs to treat depression.

One shopper, Wafa Khaled, cursed the government after failing to find insulin for her mother and paying five times as much as she would have two years ago for baby food and seven times as much for formula.

“The best thing for us would be for some foreign country to come occupy us so we could have electricity, water and security,” she said.

The crisis could do lasting damage to three sectors that have historically made Lebanon stand out in the Arab world.

In a country once billed as the Switzerland of the Middle East, the banks are largely insolvent. Education has suffered a blow as teachers and professors seek better opportunities abroad. And health care has deteriorated as reduced salaries have caused an exodus of doctors and nurses.

The emergency ward at the American University of Beirut Medical Center, among the country’s best, has gone to seven physicians, from 12, and lost more than half of its 65 nurses since July 2020, said Eveline Hitti, the head of the department.

They were driven out by waves of Covid-19, declining salaries and the explosion in the Beirut port last year, which flooded the ward with casualties.

“You ask yourself, why should I survive this?” said Rima Jabbour, the head nurse.

Now, Covid cases are increasing, as are food poisonings caused by poor refrigeration and alcohol overdoses.

The country’s political leaders have failed to slow the economic meltdown.

Officials have hampered the investigation into the port explosion, and a billionaire telecoms tycoon, Najib Mikati, is currently the third politician to try to form a government since the last cabinet resigned after the blast.

Mustafa Allouch, the deputy head of the Future Movement, a prominent political party, said, like many other Lebanese, that he feared that the political system, intended to share power between a range of sects, was incapable of addressing the country’s problems.

“I don’t think it will work anymore,” he said. “We have to look for another system, but I don’t know what it is.”

His greatest fear was “blind violence” born out of desperation and rage.

“Looting, shooting, assaults on homes and small shops,” he said. “Why it hasn’t happened by now, I don’t know.”

The crisis has hit the poor hardest.

Five days a week, scores of people line up for free meals from a charity kitchen in Tripoli, some equipped with cut off shampoo bottles to carry their food because they can’t afford regular containers.

Robert Ayoub, the project’s head, said demand is going up, donations from inside Lebanon are going down, and the newcomers represent a new kind of poor: soldiers, bank employees and civil servants whose salaries have lost the bulk of their value.

In line on a recent day were a laborer who had walked an hour from home because he couldn’t afford transportation; a brick layer whose work had dried up; and Dunia Shehadeh, an unemployed housekeeper who picked up a tub of pasta and lentil soup for her husband and three children.

“This will hardly be enough for them,” she said.

The country’s downward spiral has set off a new wave of migration, as Lebanese with foreign passports and marketable skills seek better fortune abroad.

“I can’t live in this place, and I don’t want to live in this place,” said Layal Azzam, 39, before catching a flight to Saudi Arabia from Beirut’s international airport.

She and her husband had returned to Lebanon from abroad a few years ago and invested $50,000 in a business. But she said that it had failed and that she worried they would struggle to find care if their children got sick.

“There’s no electricity. They could cut the water. Prices are high. Even if someone sends you money from abroad, it doesn’t last,” she said. “There are too many crises.”

Drone footage by David Enders and Bryan Denton. Hwaida Saad contributed reporting.

Tags century, Collapse, Economic, Lebanons, Meltdown, Worst

World News

Bitcoin mining problem drops after hashrate collapse in China

Post author By
Post date July 3, 2021

A bitcoin mine near Kongyuxiang, Sichuan, China on August 12, 2016.

Paul Ratje | The Washington Post | Getty Images

It just got a lot easier and more profitable to mine for Bitcoin.

The world has known for months that more than half of the world’s bitcoin miners would go dark if China cracked down on mining. Now that it has happened, the Bitcoin algorithm has adjusted accordingly to ensure miners’ productivity doesn’t drop any further from a cliff.

This adjustment – which went into effect early Saturday morning – also means more money will be available to the bitcoin miners who stay online.

“This will be a source of income for miners,” said bitcoin mining engineer Brandon Arvanaghi.

“They suddenly have a significantly larger piece of the pie, which means they are making more Bitcoin every day.”

Mining made easy

A bitcoin miner runs a program on a computer to try to solve a puzzle before someone else does. The solution to this puzzle completes a block, a process that both creates new bitcoins and updates the digital ledger to keep track of all bitcoin transactions.

China has long been the epicenter of bitcoin miners, with previous estimates suggesting 65 to 75% of the world’s bitcoin mining took place there, but government-led crackdown has effectively banned the country’s crypto miners.

“For the first time in the history of the Bitcoin network, we have completely stopped mining in a specific geographic region that affected more than 50% of the network, “said Darin Feinstein, Founder of Blockcap and Core Scientific.

More than 50% of the hashrate – the collective computing power of miners worldwide – has fallen off the network since its market high in May.

Fewer people mining means fewer blocks are being solved every day. It usually takes around 10 minutes to complete a block, but Feinstein told CNBC that the Bitcoin network has slowed to 14 to 19-minute block times.

Precisely for this reason, Bitcoin recalibrates and resets every 2016 blocks or roughly every two weeks about how difficult it is for miners to mine. On Saturday, the Bitcoin code automatically made mining easier by about 28% – a historically unprecedented decline for the network – and thus set the block times back to the optimal 10-minute window.

According to Mike Colyer, CEO of digital currency company Foundry, the Bitcoin algorithm is programmed to deal with an increase or decrease in mining machines. “It’s a self-regulating market that doesn’t need an outside committee to determine what to do. This is a very strong concept, ”he said.

Fewer competitors and fewer difficulties mean that any miner with a machine connected will see a significant increase in profitability and more predictable revenue.

“All bitcoin miners have the same economics and mine on the same network, so both public and private miners will see revenue growth,” said Kevin Zhang, former chief mining officer at Greenridge Generation, the first major US power plant to begin with mining on a grand scale behind the counter.

Assuming a fixed cost of electricity, Zhang estimates sales of $ 29 per day for those using the latest generation Bitmain miner, up from $ 22 per day before the change. Longer-term, although mining income can fluctuate with the price of the coin, Zhang also noted that mining revenues were only 17% lower from the Bitcoin price high in April, while the price of the coin was down about 50%.

Six month increase

It is difficult to predict how long the hashrate deficit will last. Barbour said it was entirely possible that Beijing could simply reverse its policies and this could only be a short-term hiatus.

If not, most mining crypto experts agree that it will take anywhere from six to 15 months for all of the idle and displaced mining hardware to migrate. “It will be a long time before the surplus finds a home,” said Barbour.

Gibbs believes the miners should generate higher revenues for at least the remainder of 2021.

“Every day, the Chinese miners around the world look for places where they can turn their machines on again. Space is very limited right now, ”said Colyer.

Part of the problem, according to Feinstein, is that even before mining stopped in China, there was a lack of infrastructure to accommodate the new-generation miners deployed monthly by Beijing-based manufacturer Bitmain.

Now that the market is inundated with an oversupply of used mining rigs, it’s hard to say how quickly countries can absorb the influx of equipment.

“Some mining companies built everything and were just waiting for these ASICs to plug in, which would only take a few days,” explained Arvanaghi.

“Others may need to build containers, expand warehouses, or increase their electricity capacity. We won’t see the hash rate hit what it used to be overnight, but we’ll see it rise again over the next few months, ”he continued.

Of all the possible destinations for this gear, the U.S. appears particularly well positioned to absorb this stray hashrate. CNBC is told that major U.S. mining operators are already signing contracts to patrol some of these homeless Bitmain miners.

Bitcoin mining in the US is booming and venture capital is flowing so they are ready to take advantage of miner migration, Arvanaghi told CNBC.

“Many US bitcoin miners who were funded when the price of bitcoin began to rise in November and December 2020 meant they were expanding their power capacity when the Chinese mining ban went into effect,” he said. “It’s great timing.”

However, Barbour believes that much smaller players in the US residential areas also have a chance to catch these surplus miners.

“I think this is a signal that bitcoin mining will inevitably be more distributed in the future,” said Barbour. “Fewer mega mines like the 100 megawatts we see in Texas and more small mines in small commercial and ultimately residential areas. It’s much more difficult for a politician to close a mine in a garage. “

Tags bitcoin, China, Collapse, Difficulty, drops, hashrate, Mining

Politics

Loss of life toll rises in Florida apartment tower collapse

Post author By
Post date June 28, 2021

This aerial view, shows search and rescue personnel working on site after the partial collapse of the Champlain Towers South in Surfside, north of Miami Beach, on June 24, 2021.

Chandan Khanna | AFP | Getty Images

The death toll has risen to nine people after a 12-story condominium building collapsed in Florida, Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava said at a press conference Sunday morning.

“We’ve identified four of the victims and notified the next of kin…We are making every effort to identify those others who have been recovered and additionally contacting their family members as soon as we are able,” Levine Cava said.

Champlain Towers South collapsed suddenly early Thursday morning in Surfside, Florida, just north of Miami Beach.

Search and rescue teams created a 125-feet-long trench at the rescue site on Saturday, which allowed authorities to recover additional bodies and human remains, Levine Cava said.

Miami-Dade police on Saturday night identified four of the deceased as Stacie Dawn Fang, 54; Antonio Lozano, 83; Gladys Lozano, 79; and Manuel LaFont, 54.

Authorities said 156 people remained missing as of Saturday.

Levine Cava and Surfside Mayor Charles Burkett told press on Sunday morning that searchers contained fire in the rescue site on Saturday and are continuing rescue operations. Teams from Mexico and Israel are aiding rescue efforts, according to Levine Cava and Burkett.

“We don’t have a resource problem. We’ve had a luck problem. We just need to start to get a little more lucky right now,” Burkett said on ABC News’ “This Week” on Sunday morning.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said at the press conference Sunday that debris will be moved from the rescue site to a separate location for forensic analysis.

Authorities are still investigating the cause of Thursday’s collapse. An engineer in a 2018 report warned of “major structural damage” in the condo building that collapsed. The report identified issues with waterproofing below the pool deck and “abundant cracking” in the underground parking garage.

Levine Cava on Saturday ordered a 30-day audit of all residential properties, five stories or higher, that are 40 years or older and fall under the county’s jurisdiction. The mayor encouraged cities to do their own building reviews as well.

Surfside has authorized a voluntary evacuation of residents of Champlain Towers North, the sister property of the collapsed building built. The town’s building inspector did not find any immediate causes of concern in the sister property, Levine Cava told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on Sunday morning.

Tags Collapse, condo, Death, Florida, rises, toll, Tower

Business

Greensill’s Collapse Inquiry and David Cameron’s Lobbying

Post author By
Post date May 12, 2021

He said he first became concerned about the financial health of his company in December when a German regulator said a bank acquired by Greensill Capital must cut its exposure to a client.

In business today

Updated

May 11, 2021 at 1:13 p.m. ET

The request “would be impossible for us to fulfill,” said Greensill.

Greensill’s business model has raised concerns and even allegations of fraud. The main offering has been supply chain finance, where a middleman advances payments to suppliers and the money is then returned by the buyer. It’s a long-established type of funding usually provided by banks, but Greensill added a twist. The suppliers’ invoices and other receivables were packaged in assets that were then sold to investors through funds. The company also financed companies on “future claims” based on transactions that had not yet taken place.

In the virtual hearing on Tuesday, Mr. Greensill vigorously defended the business model.

“Every asset we’ve ever sold has been properly described,” he said, adding that all investors would have had complete information about what they were buying.

But he admitted a little admission for mistakes he’d made. He told lawmakers that one of his company’s innovations is taking information directly from company accounts to make quick credit decisions. This “is absolutely the future, but the way I did it definitely had flaws,” he said without specifying what they were.

In March, when insurance coverage ran out, Credit Suisse closed Greensill’s $ 10 billion supply chain finance fund. The Swiss bank returned almost half of the amount to investors, but is still exposed to potential billions in losses.

“I am fully responsible for the collapse of Greensill Capital,” said Greensill, adding that he was “desperately sad” that more than 1,000 of its employees had lost their jobs. But he added, “It is deeply regrettable that we have been disappointed with our leading insurer, whose actions ensured the collapse of Greensill.”

The Financial Conduct Authority, the UK’s top financial regulator, said in a letter to the committee that it is “formally investigating” Greensill because some of the allegations of its failure are “potentially criminal in nature”. The agency also works with supervisory authorities in Germany, Australia and Switzerland, wrote Nikhil Rathi, the supervisory authority’s managing director.

Tags Camerons, Collapse, David, Greensills, Inquiry, lobbying

Business

European Tremendous League getting ready to collapse after condemnation

Post author By
Post date April 21, 2021

European Super League on the brink of collapse after condemnation

LONDON, ENGLAND – APRIL 20: Fans hold banners against Chelsea signing up for the newly proposed European Super League ahead of the Premier League game between Chelsea and Brighton & Hove Albion at Stamford Bridge on April 20, 2021 in London, England .

Chloe Knott – Danehouse | Getty Images Sports | Getty Images

LONDON – Plans for a breakaway elite football league in Europe have already disintegrated after widespread criticism and even threats of government interference.

The European Super League announced on Sunday is intended to keep up with the UEFA Champions League format, which is currently Europe’s best annual club competition.

Twelve of the richest teams in Europe signed up to be founding members of the new league, and JPMorgan backed them with $ 6 billion in debt funding.

However, the move sparked outrage from lawmakers, governing bodies, former players, fans, managers and experts, and many were concerned about the impact it would have on the structure of national competitions.

Many see it as a cynical and highly controversial project as the permanent members of the league could not be relegated.

Chelsea were the first club to signal Tuesday night that it was a jump ship. Fans protested the plans in front of the stadium in west London ahead of a Premier League match. Manchester City quickly followed suit with official confirmation of their withdrawal, and a few hours later England’s other four clubs withdrew.

UEFA President Aleksander Ceferin condemned the project and called it a “spit in the face” of all football fans. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson vowed to “thwart” it and likened it to a “cartel”.

The teams that initially agreed to play in the ESL included:

England: Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea and Arsenal.
Spain: Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid.
Italy: Juventus, AC Milan and Inter Milan.

On Monday evening, European Super League chairman Florentino Perez said plans to form the new runaway elite competition were designed to “save football”.

He defended himself against widespread criticism by claiming that changes were necessary because young people were “no longer interested in the sport”.

– CNBC’s Sam Shead and Sam Meredith contributed to this article.

Tags brink, Collapse, condemnation, European, League, Super

Business

Funding Agency’s Collapse Put Unseen Dangers on Full Show

Post author By
Post date April 1, 2021

Investment Firm’s Collapse Put Unseen Risks on Full Display

After the implosion of a little-known investment firm that last week weighed billions in losses on banks around the world, a big question is being asked all over Wall Street: How did they let this happen?

The answer could be because Archegos Capital Management, with the full support of at least half a dozen banks, placed bets on stocks without actually owning them.

Archegos used esoteric financial instruments called swaps, which get their name from the way they exchange one stream of income for another. In this case, Wall Street banks bought certain stocks Archegos wanted to bet on and Archegos paid the banks a fee. Then the banks paid Archegos the stock returns.

These swaps increased the fund’s purchasing power, but also created a two-pronged problem. Archegos has been able to build a lot more leverage on the stock prices of a few companies, including ViacomCBS and Discovery, than it could afford on its own. And since there are few regulations governing this type of business, there have been no disclosure requirements.

When those bets got sour last week after the stocks of some of the companies in question fell, it sparked a miniature crisis: the banks that made Archegos amass such large holdings angrily sold the stocks to protect their own balance sheets and the tide of cheap ones Shares pushed share prices even further down. And Archegos himself imploded.

The blind-side hit shuddered the financial system, stuck banks at losses that some analysts say could hit $ 10 billion. And for a time Wall Street feared that problems might cascade.

“The disclosure system doesn’t cover any of this,” said Dennis Kelleher, executive director of Better Markets, a monitoring group on Wall Street. “These derivatives are designed for synthetic exposures that de facto hide ownership.”

If banks add up their losses and shareholders are wise about the impact on their portfolios, the tactics used by Archegos will attract the attention of regulators and renew calls for further regulation of swaps and similar financial products called derivatives.

The Securities and Exchange Commission said it was monitoring the situation, and Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, said the Archegos collapse was “all set for a dangerous situation.”

“We need transparency and strong scrutiny to ensure that the next explosion in hedge funds does not affect the economy,” she said in a statement sent via email.

Recognition…Emile Wamsteker / Bloomberg News

Archegos was actually a family office set up by Bill Hwang, who previously ran a hedge fund that was involved in an insider trading case under his leadership. However, some Wall Street analysts calculated leverage – essentially trading borrowed money to increase their purchasing power – that was potentially eight times their own capital.

In this case, the leverage was shown in the form of swap contracts. In return for a fee, the bank undertakes to pay the investor what the investor would have received through the actual possession of a share over a certain period of time. When the price of a stock rises, the bank pays the investor. If it falls, the investor pays the bank.

In business today

Updated

March 31, 2021, 6:27 p.m. ET

Archegos focused its bets on the share prices of a relatively small number of companies. These included ViacomCBS, the parent company of the country’s most watched network; the media company Discovery; and a handful of Chinese technology companies. The banks that bought swaps alone held millions of shares in ViacomCBS.

Typically, large institutional investors are required by the SEC to publicly disclose their holdings at the end of each quarter. This means that investors, lenders, and regulators know when a single company has a large stake in a company.

However, the SEC disclosure rules typically do not apply to swaps, so Archegos did not have to report its large holdings. And none of the banks – at least seven known to have had ties with Archegos – saw the full picture of the risk the fund was taking, analysts say.

The use of equity-related derivatives has increased significantly in recent years. The number of equity derivatives outstanding – including swaps and a related instrument known as a forward – for US-listed stocks more than doubled from $ 50 billion at the end of 2015 to more than $ 110 billion in the first half of 2020, according to current news Data available, according to the Bank for International Settlements, an international consortium of central banks.

The use of swaps and other types of leverage can exceed profits when investments pay off. But when such bets go wrong, it can quickly wipe an investor out.

That happened last week. Several stocks that Mr. Hwang’s company had bet on began to fall, and banks demanded that he put up additional money or other assets. Known as “margin,” this is a cushion of cash that is designed to ensure that the bank does not lose money if stocks fall. When he was unable to do so, the banks tossed millions of stocks they had bought.

The impact on stock prices has been profound, with ViacomCBS down 51 percent and Discovery down 46 percent last week. The shareholders of these companies saw the value of their holdings decline. Those two stocks alone were wiped out with shareholder value of more than $ 45 billion. And banks lost money on stocks that had fallen in value. Kian Abouhossein, an analyst with JP Morgan, estimated that banks lost $ 5 billion to $ 10 billion in their dealings with Mr. Hwang.

Credit Suisse may have lost $ 3 to 4 billion, Abouhossein estimated. Japanese bank Nomura Securities has stated that it is exposed to losses of up to $ 2 billion. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have announced that they expect minimal losses – meaning it won’t seriously affect their financial results – but for such large companies that could still mean millions of dollars. Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Holdings Company, a unit of the Japanese financial conglomerate, reported a potential loss of around $ 270 million.

Analysts say the damage has been relatively minor, and while the losses have been large for some players, they are not large enough to pose a threat to the wider financial system.

But the episode will most likely revive a push to expand derivatives regulation that has been linked to many significant financial blows. During the 2008 crisis, insurance giant AIG nearly collapsed under the weight of the unregulated swap contracts it entered into.

The cascade of problems that began with Archegos was just the latest example of the ability of derivatives to increase invisible risk.

“During the 2008 financial crisis, one of the biggest problems was that many banks didn’t know who owed what to whom,” said Tyler Gellasch, a former SEC attorney who heads the Healthy Markets Association, a group advocating market reform. “And it seems this happened again.”

Matthew Goldstein contributed to the coverage.

Tags Collapse, Display, firms, Full, investment, put, risks, Unseen

Understanding the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan

Die Taliban-Übernahme in Afghanistan verstehen

Mining made easy

Read more about cryptocurrencies from CNBC Pro

Six month increase