Prime Minister Boris Johnson returns to Downing Street after a Cabinet meeting on December 8, 2020 in London, England.
Leon Neal | Getty Images News | Getty Images
The Brexit talks over the past few weeks have been dominated by numerous anonymous “sources” briefing reporters both in the UK and across the continent of the poor state of negotiations aimed at finalizing a post-Brexit trade deal.
Both sides have accused each other of not wanting to compromise on important issues, although the sticking points and “red lines” remain in relation to fishing rights, competition rules and the governance of a final agreement.
As UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson prepares to travel to Brussels this week for face-to-face meetings with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, there is hope of a breakthrough.
In the meantime, officials on both sides continue to be vocal about the efforts – and the remaining obstacles – before an agreement can be reached.
Johnson warned Tuesday the talks weren’t in a good place.
“You have to be optimistic, you have to believe that there is the power of sweet reason to get this thing over the line. But I have to tell you, it looks very, very difficult right now.” he told reporters.
Johnson will still travel to the Belgian capital this week (the timing is uncertain, but Wednesday or Friday were discussed as options) to meet his European counterparts and see if face-to-face meetings can help resolve the impasse between the negotiators .
Von der Leyen said on Monday that both sides have asked their negotiators to draw up a list of “the remaining differences to be discussed personally in the coming days.”
Britain wants to stress that it wants a deal. A no-deal scenario is likely to cause upheaval and higher business costs for companies and exporters on both sides of the English Channel.
Both sides have accused each other of making inappropriate demands. The UK feels that the EU has not understood its need for sovereignty over its own affairs and its future, while the EU believes it must do everything it can to protect the integrity of its internal market.
Some on the UK side have accused the EU of changing the goalposts late in the talks and making unfair demands.
British Health Secretary Matt Hancock implied the ball was in the EU court and said Tuesday that Johnson “went to great lengths to try to get a deal that works for both the UK and the EU. That deal.” may be feasible, but of course the EU has to want it, “he told Sky News.
War of words
France interfered in the war of words on Tuesday, and its minister for European affairs reminded negotiators of one of its beetle bears that an agreement should address – fishing rights.
While this is a small part of the economy in both the UK and the EU, the issue of fishing is emotionally important in countries like the UK, France and the Netherlands, where fishing communities live and where there is public pressure to defend them.
France’s Clement Beaune insisted that his country would not “sacrifice” its fishing crews in any trade deal. “When it comes to fishing, there is no reason to give in to UK pressure. We can make some effort, but sacrifice fishing and fishermen, no,” Beaune told RMC Radio, Reuters, reiterating that France will veto any deal who viewed it as a “bad” business.
What do analysts think of the prospect of getting a deal now when the time expires on December 31, when the post-Brexit transition period ends in the UK? Any agreement reached by the negotiators would have to be ratified by the EU Parliament so that time is short. Not all are bleak, with one telling CNBC on Tuesday that there is still time.
Steen Jakobsen, chief economist and CIO at Saxo Bank, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” that he “doesn’t understand all the fuss” about the current state of the talks. “Do not forget that the EU will not close deals until a minute before twelve, which means that we are far from the end date of these negotiations, which is the end of December,” he said, adding: “I think it is a classic EU Move.”
Jakobsen believed the UK and EU could “stop the clock” and continue talks beyond December 31 if necessary. “I agree with you that the calendar year is going to be a bit tricky, but there are ways you can do that, including stopping the clock that we saw before.”
“There are a number of diplomatic ways to play this game,” he said.
The EU Commission reaffirmed on Tuesday that it had not ruled out the possibility that talks could continue beyond the transition period, but the UK previously rejected this option. EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said Tuesday that a school or even a university of patience was needed, Reuters reported.
