Income inequality could worsen, the report said, which is at times linked to information inequality.
The “trust gap” between an informed public that believes in a government solution and a broader public that is deeply skeptical of institutions is growing, the report says.
Updated
April 8, 2021, 9:43 a.m. ET
The problem is made worse by technology. Algorithms, social media and artificial intelligence have replaced expertise in deciding what information is most widely disseminated, and this has left the public more vulnerable to misinformation.
However, the positive demographic change in the last few decades, when people moved from poverty to the middle class, had created “rising expectations”, said Maria Langan-Riekhof, the director of the strategic future group of the secret service council. Fears of falling incomes are growing around the world, however, a worrying trend coupled with changes in the way information is shared and social divisions have deepened.
“These concerns lead people to search for the security of trustworthy voices, but also for like-minded groups in their societies,” said Ms. Langan-Riekhof. “Layer these trends that I am describing and you will see the recipe for larger divisions and increasing fractions. We believe this is likely to continue and get worse. “
Over time, these trends could weaken democratic governments.
“At the same time as the population is becoming empowered and asking for more, governments are coming under more pressure from new challenges and limited resources,” the report said. “This widening gap points to greater political volatility, an erosion of democracy and an expanding role of alternative governance providers. In time, these dynamics could open the door to more significant changes in the way people govern. “
The global trend report has often examined possible future situations. The 2017 report considered one example of a pandemic that is throwing the world into economic chaos. It envisioned nationalist politicians undermining alliances, a drop in oil prices that led to disaster, and more isolated trading practices. She also forecast a pandemic (albeit in 2023, not 2020) that would limit travel, create economic problems, and exacerbate existing tendencies toward isolation.
The report has discussed pandemic risk for nearly two decades, said Gregory F. Treverton, a past chair of the National Intelligence Council who led the 2017 effort. According to the 2004 report, some experts felt it was “only a matter of time” before a pandemic, he said.
