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Biden to Elevate Minimal Wage for Federal Contractors to $15: Stay Updates

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Credit…Damon Winter/The New York Times

President Biden plans to sign an executive order on Tuesday raising the minimum wage paid by federal contractors to $15 an hour, the latest in a set of ambitious pro-labor moves at the outset of his administration.

The new minimum is expected to take effect next year and is likely to affect hundreds of thousands of workers, according to a White House document. The current minimum is $10.95 under an order that President Barack Obama signed in 2014. Like that order, the new one will require that the new minimum wage rise with inflation.

White House economists believed the increase would not lead to significant job losses, a finding in line with recent research on the minimum wage, and that it was unlikely to cost taxpayers more money, two administration officials said in a call with reporters. They argued that the higher wage would lead to greater productivity and lower turnover.

The White House also contends that although the number of workers directly affected by the increase is relatively small as a share of the economy, the executive order will indirectly raise wages beyond federal contractors by forcing other employers to bid up pay as they compete for workers.

Several cities have a minimum wage of at least $15 an hour, and several states have laws that will raise their minimum wage to at least that level in the coming years. There is so far little evidence on how a $15 minimum wage affects employment in lower-cost areas of such states.

Two years ago, the House of Representatives passed a bill to raise the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2025, but the legislation has faced long odds in the Senate. Mr. Biden sought to incorporate such a measure in his $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package so that it could pass on a simple majority vote, but the Senate parliamentarian ruled that it could not be included.

Mr. Biden’s executive order will also eliminate the so-called tipped minimum wage for federal contractors, which currently allows employers to pay tipped workers $7.65 an hour as long as their tips put them over the regular minimum wage. Under the new minimum, all workers must be paid at least $15 an hour.

The order will technically begin a rule-making process that is expected to conclude by early next year. The wage will be incorporated into new contracts and existing contracts as they are extended.

Traffic in Philadelphia last month. BP reported higher earnings on Tuesday, and said it expected demand for oil would continue to recover from the pandemic.Credit…Matt Rourke/Associated Press

BP reported a sharply higher profit for the first quarter of 2021 on Tuesday, signaling that after a grim 2020, oil companies’ earnings are recovering along with demand for their products.

BP said that underlying replacement cost profit, the metric most closely watched by analysts, was $2.6 billion, up from $791 million in the period year earlier. The London giant said that the price it received for its oil in the quarter was up more than 20 percent. BP described its trading and marketing of natural gas, where prices also increased, as “exceptionally strong.”

Citing strong economic growing in China and the United States, BP said that it expected the oil market to continue to recover from the effects of the pandemic.

Bernard Looney, the chief executive, has said he wants to use the cash from oil and gas operations to finance a shift toward electric power and other clean energy.

In the first quarter, the plan seemed to work well. The company raked in about $10.9 billion, a sum that included revenue from sales of fossil fuel businesses, among them a stake in a gas field in Oman. Because of divestments, BP’s oil production fell by 22 percent compared with the same period a year earlier.

At the same time, BP expanded into the offshore wind business. It entered into a partnership with Equinor, the Norwegian energy company that is developing wind farms off the East Coast of the United States, and is acquiring offshore wind acreage off Britain at what some in the industry considered high prices.

BP also said that, having met debt reduction targets, it would resume a program of buying back shares, a way to increase the price of BP stock; it had not bought back shares since the first quarter of last year, as its business was battered by the pandemic. In the second quarter the company plans to spend $500 million on such purchases.

Last summer, BP also cut its dividend for the first time since the Deepwater Horizon disaster a decade ago, to 5.25 cents a share. The dividend will remain at that level, the company said.

BP said it could generate a surplus with oil prices above $45 a barrel. Lately, prices have been considerably higher, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, at about $66 a barrel.

Nonprofit organizations “across the ideological spectrum” filed briefs supporting Americans for Prosperity Foundation, Justice Brett Kavanaugh noted. Credit…T.J. Kirkpatrick for The New York Times

A Supreme Court case argued on Monday has created strange bedfellows, which did not escape the attention of the justices.

The matter pits charities against the State of California over donor disclosure requirements, and it’s a dispute over a seemingly small technical issue that some say has serious implications for political donations. It has turned groups that are often on opposite sides of political fights into — tentative — allies, the DealBook newsletter reports.

Nonprofit organizations “across the ideological spectrum” filed briefs supporting the petitioners, the Koch-backed charity Americans for Prosperity Foundation, Justice Brett Kavanaugh noted. The foundation argues that California violates the constitutionally protected right to anonymous association by collecting major donor data and failing to protect it (the state’s website has experienced security breaches). Justice Kavanaugh cited a filing from the American Civil Liberties Union, the N.A.A.C.P. Legal Defense and Education Fund and others who all agreed that “a critical corollary of the freedom to associate is the right to maintain the confidentiality of one’s associations.”

“Certainly, we don’t see eye to eye with the petitioners in this case on every issue,” Brian Hauss of the A.C.L.U. said at a news conference after arguments at the court. In this case, the A.C.L.U. standing with the Americans for Prosperity Foundation because of what it calls California’s “systemic incompetence” in failing to protect nonpublic data. Legally speaking, however, it recognized a distinction between public disclosure and nonpublic disclosure. In other words, the brief didn’t argue for a general extension of anonymity.

Opponents say this is a case about “dark money.” Democratic senators argued in a brief that the foundation is advancing the matter as a way to make it easier for special interests to influence politics with untraceable money. “This case is really a stalking horse for campaign finance disclosure laws,” Justice Stephen Breyer said. A ruling is expected in June.

Shares in UPS were rising in premarket trading after the delivery company released first-quarter results that showed consolidated operating profit up 158 percent compared with a year ago.Credit…Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

  • U.S. stocks were little changed on Tuesday as investors digested more company earnings reports and awaited the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision on Wednesday. The S&P 500 drifted between gains and losses soon after the start of trading.

  • Tesla fell 2 percent even after the electric-car maker posted a quarterly profit of $438 million, its highest ever. UPS rose 11 percent after the parcel delivery company reported earnings that beat analysts’ expectations.

  • Alphabet, Microsoft and Visa are among companies also reporting earnings on Tuesday after the market closes.

  • By last Friday, a quarter of companies in the S&P 500 had published their first-quarter results, with 84 percent of them reporting earnings that were better than expected, according to FactSet. If this trend holds, it would be the highest percentage since FactSet started tracking the metric in 2008.

  • Most European stock indexes fell. The Stoxx Europe 600 declined nearly 0.3 percent.

  • HSBC rose 2 percent, becoming the best performer in the FTSE 100, after the bank said its pretax profits rose nearly 80 percent in the first quarter compared with last year. As the global economic outlook has improved, the bank released $435 million it had set aside for loan losses.

  • UBS dropped 3 percent after the Swiss bank said it lost $774 million in the first quarter from the collapse of the American hedge fund Archegos Capital Management.

Talasheia Dedmon enrolled her son Braylon in a college savings account through SEED for Oklahoma Kids, an effort to help a new generation climb the educational ladder and build assets. Credit…September Dawn Bottoms for The New York Times

An experiment called SEED for Oklahoma Kids, or SEED OK, is one of a growing number of efforts by cities and states — governed by Democrats and Republicans alike — to help a new generation climb the educational ladder and build assets

SEED OK is a far-reaching research project begun in Oklahoma 14 years ago to study whether creating savings accounts containing $1,000 for newborns would improve their graduation rates and their chances of going to college or trade school years later, Patricia Cohen reports for The New York Times.

Research about the Oklahoma project published this month by the Center for Social Development at Washington University in St. Louis, which created SEED OK, found that families that had been given accounts were more college-focused and contributed more of their own money than those that hadn’t been. And the effects are strongest among low-income families.

The 1,300-plus children who were chosen at random to be given accounts in 2007 had an average of $3,243 saved by the end of 2019. Among the control group — another 1,300 children who were randomly selected to take part but were not given any money — only 4 percent had an account.

Proposals at the federal level to establish savings accounts at birth, for college, homes, business or retirement savings, go back to the 1990s. Canada, Israel, South Korea and Singapore have established versions of the idea. Pennsylvania, Nebraska and Illinois are among the states that have created programs.

Technical problems marred the Small Business Association’s first attempt at accepting applications for the grant program.Credit…Zack Wittman for The New York Times

After months of delays and technical problems, the federal government finally opened a $16 billion grant fund for music club operators, theater owners and others in the live-event business on Monday.

Thousands of people hit the website for the Shuttered Venue Operators Grant program the moment it began accepting applications. Speed mattered: The money — awarded on a first-come-first-served basis — is widely expected to run out fast.

One applicant posted a screenshot showing that he was in line behind more than 6,000 others waiting for their turn to apply. “Hunger Games” memes — “May the odds be ever in your favor” — popped up in Twitter posts from desperate business owners venting their collective anxiety.

But this time, the system stayed up. As of 5 p.m. on Monday, the agency had received 6,040 grant applications, according to Andrea Roebker, an agency spokeswoman. Nearly 8,400 more had been created but not yet been completed.

Sarah Elger, chief executive of Pseudonym Productions, an events production company in Philadelphia, successfully submitted her application 16 minutes after she got access to the system.

“It was such a relief,” Ms. Elger said. She was one of thousands of business owners who had their hopes dashed earlier this month, when the Small Business Administration, the agency that runs the program, tried — and failed — to start taking applications. After four hours, the agency took the system offline for what turned into weeks of technology repair work.

Ms. Elger estimated that she uploaded more than 100 documents for her application, which she and her husband, Ricky Brigante, spent months preparing. They knew they would have to move quickly once the application website opened.

“We turned it into a game,” Ms. Elger said. “We had lots of folders on the desktop and raced through the uploads.”

The Small Business Administration said it would immediately start reviewing the applications, which are intended to yield grants for 45 percent of applicants’ prepandemic gross earned annual revenue, up to $10 million.

“We recognize the urgency,” said Barb Carson, the deputy associate administrator of the agency’s Office of Disaster Assistance. “With venue operators in danger of closing, every day that passes by is a day that these businesses cannot afford.”

The program, created in the $900 billion economic support package that President Donald J. Trump approved in December, is the first large direct-to-businesses grant program the Small Business Administration has ever run. The process, for both the agency and applicants, has for months been fraught with complexity and confusion.

John Russell, the executive director of the Montford Park Players, a nonprofit community theater group in Asheville, N.C., submitted his application on Monday afternoon. He is relying on the grant to help cover his group’s return to the stage.

After a full year of hosting only virtual events, the group is planning to open its first full in-person production, the Shakespeare play “The Comedy of Errors,” next month.

“We figured people are in the mood for comedy,” Mr. Russell said. The show’s actors are volunteers, but the production creates paid jobs for its director, stage manager, lighting designer, food vendors and others, as well as for the theater troupe’s support staff.

The Small Business Administration is also preparing to open a second grant program, the Restaurant Revitalization Fund, a $28.6 billion support fund for bars, restaurants and food trucks that was created in last month’s $1.9 trillion relief bill. That program is planning a seven-day test to help the agency avoid the kind of technical problems that plagued the venue program.

Lyft lost $1.8 billion last year as the pandemic cut into its revenue.Credit…Mike Blake/Reuters

Lyft will sell its unit devoted to developing autonomous vehicles to Woven Planet, a Toyota subsidiary, the companies announced on Monday. Woven Planet will pay $200 million in cash for Level 5, Lyft’s self-driving car initiative, and will follow up with additional payments of $350 million over five years.

Lyft is among several tech companies that have stepped back from developing autonomous vehicles over the last year as the technology has proved difficult to master and the pandemic has placed pressure on the company’s bottom lines. In December, Uber essentially paid Aurora, a self-driving truck start-up, to take its autonomous vehicle unit.

Some automotive executives have said they overestimated how soon the technology would be ready for the road. And although Waymo, the autonomous vehicle unit owned by Google’s parent company, Alphabet, has recently expanded its operations, the chief executive of Waymo stepped down earlier this month to pursue “new adventures.”

Lyft said unloading Level 5 would cut about $100 million in annual expenses, helping the company edge closer to profitability after the pandemic sliced into its revenue. Lyft lost $1.8 billion last year. The company is set to report earnings for the first three months of 2021 next month.

Lyft will still have a team focused on third-party self-driving technology and will continue to collect data from trips to help train autonomous systems, the company said.

“Not only will this transaction allow Lyft to focus on advancing our leading autonomous platform and transportation network, this partnership will help pull in our profitability timeline,” Lyft’s president, John Zimmer, said in a statement.

Categories
Politics

Democrats to drop minimal wage plan in Covid aid invoice

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) speaks on the second day of Trump’s second impeachment trial in Washington on February 10, 2021 with reporters in the Senate reception room.

Brandon Bell | Pool | Reuters

Senate Democrats will ditch plans to increase wages through tax penalties and other economic incentives that some lawmakers, according to someone familiar with the matter, have considered as an alternative to raising the federal minimum wage.

Some lawmakers last week released a “Plan B” in President Coven’s $ 1.9 trillion Covid stimulus plan that would have penalized companies that paid workers below a certain threshold.

The Senators released the backup plan Thursday and Friday after the Senate MP ruled that a proposed increase in the federal minimum wage to $ 15 an hour did not meet the requirements Democrats must meet to pass the stimulus bill without Republican support to adopt.

The “Plan B” advocated by Senate CFO Ron Wyden, D-Ore, and Senate Budget Chairman Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., Would have penalized billion dollar companies that weren’t enough workers paid with various tax incentives.

Legislators considered a number of penalties, including a 5% levy on a large company’s total wages, if workers earned less than $ 15 an hour.

The fate of the Biden government’s first major piece of legislation now rests in the Senate after the House passed its version of the law on a largely partisan basis early Saturday.

Democratic lawmakers say urgency is key to delivering the big incentive. They’re trying to get a final bill to Biden’s desk by March 14th when the unemployment assistance programs expire. The House bill includes direct checks for $ 1,400 for many Americans, funding for vaccine distribution, and $ 350 billion for state and local governments.

Senators are expected to seriously consider the bill starting this week and propose changes to the legislation they have received from the House of Representatives. Given the backlash with the MP and the tight schedule, party leaders are likely to choose to raise the federal minimum wage in future legislation.

This is likely to please certain outside groups, including the trade unions and the Business Roundtable, who had raised concerns that a protracted struggle for a wage increase would delay much-needed relief for workers and industries hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

Given that the lower chamber approved the bill increasing the minimum wage by $ 15 an hour, it is likely that the Senate will pass another version of the bill. The two chambers would then have to work out a final proposal in a conference committee.

Democrats, who have a thin majority in the House and Senate, decided to pursue the latest stimulus package without input from Republicans through a process known as budget balancing. Voting allows a bill to be passed by a simple majority, but it also limits the provisions that can be included in the legislation.

Some progressive lawmakers have urged the Biden administration – notably Vice President Kamala Harris – to override Senate MP Elizabeth MacDonough’s decision to rule out the minimum wage increase.

While some unions and corporate groups may be exonerated, any decision to postpone the wage increase is likely to upset the party’s progressive wing and again bring it into conflict with the democratic leadership.

California Deputy Caucus MP Ro Khanna and 22 other lawmakers again encouraged the President and Vice President to challenge the MP’s decision on Monday.

“This decision is a bridge too far. We were asked politely but firmly to compromise almost all of our principles and goals. Not this time,” said Khanna in a letter. “If we do not override the Senate MP, we will condone poverty wages for millions of Americans. Therefore, I urge my colleagues to urge the Biden administration to use the clear precedent to override this misguided decision. “

Administrative officials, including White House chief of staff Ron Klain, said there were no plans for Harris to override the MP. House spokeswoman Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., Said Friday she believes the House of Representatives would “absolutely” pass the relief bill if it comes back from the Senate without a minimum wage increase.

– CNBC’s Ylan Mui and Jacob Pramuk contributed to this report.

Categories
Politics

Democrats vow to penalize massive companies that do not pay $15 minimal wage

Senator Bernie Sanders (IV.T.), Chairman of the Budgets Committee, speaks during a U.S. Senate Budgets Committee hearing on large corporation wages on Capitol Hill in Washington February 25, 2021.

Stefani Reynolds | Reuters

Top Democrats are drafting new plans penalizing large corporations who pay their employees less than $ 15 an hour after a Senate official ruled Thursday that the party would not include a wage increase in its $ 1.9 trillion economic bills could.

Democrats, led by Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., And Ron Wyden, D-Ore., Vowed to make changes to the existing aid package that would penalize companies that pay workers below a certain hourly rate.

Sanders swiftly rejected the decision of Senate MP Elizabeth McDonough, who found Thursday night that a proposed $ 15 minimum wage scheme did not meet the stringent budgetary standards imposed as part of the budget reconciliation.

“I do not agree with today’s decision of the Senate MP,” said Sanders in a press release on Thursday. “In the days ahead, I’ll be working with my Senate colleagues to drive a change that will help big, profitable companies that don’t pay workers at least $ 15 an hour have tax deductions and small businesses receive.” Incentives they need to raise wages. “

“This change must be included in this draft reconciliation,” he added.

On Friday morning, Wyden, who is working closely with Sanders on the change, announced more details on “Plan B”.

He said his change, if adopted, would impose a 5% penalty on a large company’s total wage bill for workers earning less than a certain amount. Wyden added that the penalty would increase over time and include safeguards to prevent companies from attempting to outsource workers to avoid paying living wages.

“We couldn’t get in the front door or the back door, so we’ll try to go through the window,” said Wyden of the new plan. “As the talks continue, I believe that this ‘Plan B’ offers us a way to move forward and to achieve this through the reconciliation process.”

The US last raised the minimum wage in 2009 to USD 7.25 per hour.

Wyden, who also chairs the Senate Finance Committee, added that his amendment would give small businesses that pay higher wages to their workers a tax credit of 25% of wages up to $ 10,000 per year per employer.

A senior Democratic adviser confirmed Friday that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, DN.Y., is considering adding a provision to the bill in line with Sanders and Wyden’s proposals.

Though the Democrats made the MP’s decision clearer, Republican Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri is working to pass a new law aimed at raising the minimum wage for workers.

Hawley, who has faced heavy bipartisan criticism for voting to overthrow President Joe Biden’s election, announced on Wednesday a bill that would give low-wage workers a “bonus” through an automatic tax credit tax credit.

Hawley’s office touted the plan as better than a minimum wage hike because it “doesn’t pose a huge new burden on small businesses, many of which are still recovering from damaging closures.”

Senators will have the option to introduce changes to Biden’s $ 1.9 trillion stimulus plan after the House passes the legislation in a vote expected later on Friday in the lower chamber. Democrats hold a slim 50:50 majority in the Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris having the casting vote.

Still, the Senate bill debate is expected to be full of pitfalls, as a single democratic vote against the plan would stall it.

Categories
Politics

High Senate Official Disqualifies Minimal Wage From Stimulus Plan

The Republicans applauded their decision.

“This decision to strengthen reconciliation cannot be used as a means to pass major legislative changes – by either party – by simple majority,” said Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, the Republican chief on the Budgets Committee. “This decision will strengthen Senate traditions over time.”

While the majority tend to follow the advice of the MP, Democrats could also try to override their leadership by effectively insisting on including the wage increase in legislation anyway, or trying to rewrite the provision to include the Rules of the Senate. In 2001, then MP Robert B. Dove was unceremoniously ousted from his position after Republican leaders objected to his decisions.

But senior White House officials, including Ron Klain, the chief of staff, have publicly stated that Vice President Kamala Harris, in her role as Senate President, would not vote to override Ms. MacDonough. Ms. MacDonough, the first woman to hold the office, has maintained both the position and bipartisan respect under the leadership of both parties since her appointment in 2012.

Some Democrats privately grumbled Thursday night that Mr Klain’s comments in a television interview Wednesday in conjunction with Mr Biden’s public admission earlier that month that he did not believe the wage increase would survive made Ms. MacDonough the “permit structure” in essence gave kill the proposal, according to a Democratic aide who described his thinking on the condition of anonymity.

It was not clear whether the Democrats could have won a majority to defeat the MP. The Liberal Democrats, who have been calling for the removal of the 60-vote threshold, were concerned about the procedural defeat and asked Ms. Harris to intervene to change the decision.

“I’m sorry – an unelected MP cannot withhold 32 million Americans the raise they deserve,” California Democrat Ro Khanna wrote on Twitter. “This is a recommendation, not a decision. VP Harris must ignore and regulate a minimum wage of $ 15 to achieve this. We were chosen to deliver for the people. It’s time we did our job. “

Some Republicans have spoken out in favor of legislation that would gradually raise the minimum wage to $ 10 instead of $ 15.

Categories
Business

27 Locations Elevating the Minimal Wage to $15 an Hour

It started in 2012 with a group of protesters outside a McDonald’s calling for a minimum wage of $ 15 – an idea that even many liberal lawmakers viewed as fancy. In the years since then, their struggle has grown in importance across the country, including conservative states with low union membership and generally weak labor laws.

On Friday, 20 states and 32 cities and counties will raise their minimum wages. In 27 of those places, the lower wage limit will hit or exceed $ 15 an hour, according to a National Employment Law Project report released Thursday that supports minimum wage increases.

The strength of the movement – an electoral move to increase the Florida minimum wage to $ 15 by 2026, which was passed in November – could once again put pressure on Congress to raise the federal minimum wage from $ 7.25 an hour, elected since 2009 Joseph R. Biden Jr. has endorsed $ 15 an hour at the federal level and other working group changes, such as ending the practice of lower minimum wages for workers such as restaurant workers who receive tips.

But even without action by Congress, labor activists said they would continue their campaign at the state and local levels. By 2026, 42 percent of Americans will be Work in a location with a minimum wage of at least $ 15 an hour. This is based on an estimate by the Economic Policy Institute given in the NELP report.

“These record increases in wages in states are the result of years of advocacy from workers and years of marching in the streets and organizing their peers and their communities,” said Yannet Lathrop, researcher and policy analyst for the group.

Wage rates rise as workers struggle in a recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic that has left millions of people unemployed.

“The Covid crisis has really exacerbated inequalities in society,” said Greg Daco, chief US economist for Oxford Economics. “This has given more strength to these movements that want to make sure everyone benefits from a strong job market in the form of sustainable salaries.”

Workers during the pandemic were exposed to vacations, wage cuts and working hours. Low-wage service workers have not been able to work from home, and the customer-centric nature of their work puts them at higher risk of contracting the virus. Many retailers gave workers wage increases – or “hero wages” – at the start of the pandemic to quietly end the practice over the summer, although the virus continued to rise in many states.

“The coronavirus pandemic has driven many working families into deep poverty,” said Anthony Advincula, communications director at Restaurant Opportunities Centers United, a nonprofit focused on improving wages and working conditions. “This increase in the minimum wage will be a tremendously welcome boost for low-wage workers, especially in the hospitality industry.”

Mary Kay Henry, international president of the Service Employees International Union, said the labor movement would make it a priority in 2021 to get even more workers to $ 15 an hour or more.

“There are millions more workers who need more money in their pockets,” she said, adding that the election of Mr. Biden and elected Vice President Kamala Harris would intensify efforts. “We have an incredible opportunity.”

Because many of the hourly service workers are Black, Hispanic, Native American, and Asian, people of color can benefit most from minimum wage increases. A 2018 study by the Economic Policy Institute found that workers of color were far more likely to receive poverty-level wages than white workers.

“It is the most dramatic act of creating racial equality,” said Ms. Henry.

Some economists say raising the minimum wage will benefit the economy and could be an important part of the recovery from the pandemic recession. This is in part because lower-income workers typically spend most of the money they make and that spending is mostly made where they live and work.

Kate Bahn, director of labor policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, said post-2007-09 recession growth was anemic for years as wages stagnated and the labor market slowly found its way back.

“It has been widely recognized that the weak wage growth we have seen over the past 30 years and since the Great Recession reflects structural imbalances in the economy and structural inequality,” said Ms. Bahn.

Many corporate groups counter that an increase in the minimum wage will harm small businesses already affected by the pandemic. According to the National Restaurant Association, more than 110,000 restaurants closed permanently or long-term during the pandemic.

An increase in the minimum wage could lead employers to lay off some workers in order to pay others more, said David Neumark, an economics professor at the University of California at Irvine.

“There is a lot of research that suggests that raising the minimum wage can lead to job losses,” he said. “Many workers are being helped, but some are injured.”

A 2019 study by the Congressional Budget Office found that a minimum wage of $ 15 would raise wages for 17 million workers who earned less than that and potentially another 10 million workers who made a little more. According to the study’s median estimate, 1.3 million other workers would lose their jobs.

In New York, the Senate Republicans had urged Democrat Governor Andrew M. Cuomo to stop the increases that came into force on Thursday on the grounds that they could be the “last straw” for some small businesses.

While raising the minimum wage above a certain point could result in job losses, Ms. Bahn of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth argued, “We are a long way from that point.”

Economic research has shown that recent minimum wage increases have not resulted in huge job losses. In a 2019 study, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that wages for recreational and hospitality workers in the boroughs of New York bordering Pennsylvania that had a lower minimum had risen sharply while employment growth continued . In many cases, higher minimum wages are introduced over several years to give companies time to adjust.

Regardless of whether there is federal action, more state electoral initiatives will seek to raise the minimum wage, said Arindrajit Dube, an economics professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

“Basically, people think this is a question of fairness,” said Dube. “There is widespread support for the idea that people who work should be paid a living wage.”

Jeanna Smialek contributed to the reporting.