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Singapore, Thailand are weak to U.S. recession, economists say

Singapore is the most vulnerable and will be the first to be hit in Southeast Asia if the US goes into recession, says Maybank’s Chua Hak Bin.

Roslan Rahman | AFP | Getty Images

SINGAPORE — Asia won’t get off scot-free if the US falls into recession, but some countries in Southeast Asia will be hit harder than others, economists warn.

The tug-of-war between inflation and recession in the United States continues as the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance on rate hikes.

The US has already reported back-to-back quarters of negative growth in the first two quarters of 2022 – in what some see as a “technical” recession. Still, there is little consensus on when a full-blown recession might strike.

Economists told CNBC that Singapore and Thailand will most likely be hit first if the US slips into recession.

Singapore

Singapore is “more vulnerable” to a US recession than its regional peers because it is “very, very dependent,” said Chua Hak Bin, a senior economist at Maybank.

“I guess [it] Singapore will be first,” he said when asked which economies in Southeast Asia will be hit first if the US falls into recession. The island nation is likely to be first because of its export dependency and its small and open economy, Chua said.

Selina Ling, chief economist at OCBC Bank, agreed with this analysis.

“At first glance, I would rather assume the more open and trade-dependent Asian economies [Singapore]Taiwan and South Korea and maybe Thailand would be the usual suspects,” she said.

1. Connected

The country’s GDP growth has “historically been more closely correlated with US business cycles” due to its export-oriented economy, Maybank said in a late August report.

Singapore does not have a large domestic market and relies heavily on trade services for economic growth, Chua said. These include shipping activities and cargo operations.

The country’s trade-to-GDP ratio for 2021 was 338%, according to the World Bank. The trade to GDP ratio is an indicator of how open an economy is to international trade.

Singapore’s “correlation and dependence on foreign demand is very high,” Chua said. If the US slips into recession, this “dependency and causality” will hit the more export-oriented economies, he added.

Singapore is strongly connected to the rest of the world and a “shockwave” in any one country will definitely have a ripple effect across the city, Irvin Seah, senior economist at DBS Group Research, told CNBC.

Still, he doesn’t expect Singapore to fall into recession this year or next.

The Maybank report states that if the US slides into recession, the downturn will be “shallow rather than deep.”

However, Chua said the US could potentially face a “prolonged” recession and whether or not Singapore is also headed for a protracted recession will depend on China’s Covid reopening as China is the city-state’s biggest trading partner.

2. Export-oriented economy

Singapore is a big exporter of electrical machinery and equipment, but output in its electronics cluster fell 6.4% yoy in July, data from the Economic Development Board showed.

Production in the semiconductor sector fell 4.1%, while other electronic module and component segments shrank 19.7% on “lower export orders from China and China.” [South] Korea,” said the EDB, a government agency of Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry.

“China is the biggest export market for many ASEAN countries… But exports to China have been terrible,” Chua said, referring to the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations. “Because Singapore is so dependent on exports, [it] will feel it.”

3. Tourism

Seah, the economist at DBS, said he “doesn’t rule out the possibility” that Singapore will see at least a quarter of negative quarter-on-quarter growth. However, economic conditions for the country are normalizing, he added.

“We are definitely much stronger today than we were during the global financial crisis,” he said.

Thailand

Thailand will also be among the first to be hit if the US slips into recession, economists predicted, speaking to CNBC.

1. Tourism

The country relies heavily on tourism for its economic growth. Spending on tourists accounted for about 11% of Thailand’s GDP in 2019 before the pandemic. The country welcomed nearly 40 million visitors that year and generated more than $60 billion in revenue, according to the World Bank.

Only about 428,000 foreign tourists arrived in 2021 and the economy grew by just 1.5% – one of the slowest in Southeast Asia, according to Reuters.

Thailand could be next to fall into recession after Singapore, Chua said. However, a “wild card” will be the timing of China’s reopening – which could determine whether Thailand’s economy is “back to full swing,” he added.

Thailand's lifting of Covid curbs will boost travel and service industries: hospitality businesses

Chinese tourists have not returned to the Southeast Asian country, and that has left Thailand’s economy in “an even more precarious state,” said Seah of DBS Bank.

“As long as Chinese tourists don’t return, Thailand will keep fighting. Growth was weak, inflation high, [and] The Thai baht is under pressure.”

The Thai baht is currently hovering around 36 baht per US dollar, down 20% from three years ago before the pandemic.

2. Inflationary pressures

Thailand’s inflation rate hit a 14-year high of 7.66% in June, according to Refinitiv data.

The Bank of Thailand has only hiked interest rates once since 2018.

“Headline inflation is very high in Thailand, but core inflation is not that high, correlation is not that high. Of course, growth has been much weaker, so they see no urgency to tighten that aggressively,” Maybank’s Chua said.

He pointed out that Indonesia and the Philippines would likely be less affected by a possible US recession due to their “domestically focused economies”.

“Indonesia and the Philippines were better insulated from the slowdown in foreign demand and the US recession, with both economies continuing to expand even in 2008-09 during the global financial crisis,” the Maybank report said.

According to World Bank data, GDP growth in Indonesia and the Philippines was higher than in Singapore and Thailand during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

– CNBC’s Abigail Ng and Weizhen Tan contributed to this report.

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Health

CDC panel prepares to vote on Covid vaccine booster pictures for weak People

Marilyn Lurie, who suffers from frontotemporal dementia, is being monitored in the back yard of her home by elderly caregiver Olga Lopez after receiving her first dose of COVID-19 vaccine as part of a mobile vaccination program on July 16, 2021 in Los Angeles, California.

Mario Tama | Getty Images News | Getty Images

A key advisory group from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is preparing to vote on Friday on distributing Covid-19 vaccine booster shots to Americans with compromised immune systems.

The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices is due to meet on Friday to consider Covid booster vaccinations for such people, including cancer and HIV patients. On Thursday, the CDC updated their website to indicate that a vote is scheduled for the meeting on Friday around 1 p.m. ET.

The Food and Drug Administration is expected to approve a third Covid vaccination for immunocompromised populations on Thursday, a highly anticipated move designed to protect some of the most vulnerable Americans from the highly contagious Delta variant.

However, the FDA’s OK is not the final go-ahead. The CDC Advisory Committee must then make a recommendation on how to distribute the booster shots. If the CDC accepts the advisory group’s recommendation as expected, third shots could begin immediately.

Immunocompromised populations would be the first group in the US to receive a booster vaccination. Federal health officials are not currently recommending additional doses for the general public.

People with compromised immune systems make up only about 2.7% of the adult US population. Still, they account for around 44% of hospitalized breakthrough Covid cases, according to recent data from the CDC group. A breakthrough case is infection in a fully vaccinated person.

The Senior Medical Advisor to the White House, Dr. Anthony Fauci said last week that new data suggests that immunocompromised people are not generating an adequate immune response after receiving two doses of a Covid vaccine.

CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the FDA has worked closely with Pfizer and Moderna to give these vulnerable groups the opportunity to receive booster vaccinations.

“An extra dose could help increase protection for these people, which is especially important as the Delta variant is spreading,” she said during a Covid briefing at the White House. “This action is about ensuring that our most vulnerable, who may need an extra dose to improve their biological responses to the vaccines, are better protected from Covid-19.”

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Company provides closing OK to manage Covid vaccine booster pictures to susceptible Individuals

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday gave final approval to give Covid-19 booster vaccinations to recipients of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, hours after a key panel unanimously voted to allow third doses for immunocompromised Americans advocate.

“At a time when the Delta variant is on the rise, an extra dose of vaccine for some people with compromised immune systems could help prevent serious and potentially life-threatening COVID-19 cases in this population,” said CDC Director Dr . Rochelle Walensky in a statement.

The CDC’s decision and recommendation by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices followed the approval of the booster vaccination for immunocompromised patients by the Food and Drug Administration late Thursday. With the OK from both authorities, the booster doses could be given immediately.

“For the past almost a year and a half, I have cared for many patients with life-threatening and fatal diseases, and even post-vaccination,” who are immunocompromised, Dr. Camille Nelson Kotton, a transplant and infectious disease specialist at Massachusetts General Hospital, told the panel to strongly support boosters for those with weak immune systems. “They just suffer from a lack of good vaccination protection, we know that the vaccine is less effective in this population.”

Close-up of the Moderna vaccine at the Park County Health Department’s COVID-19 Vaccination Clinic for Seniors 80 and older on January 28, 2021 in Livingston, Montana.

William Campbell | Getty Images

FDA approval approved third doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines for “solid organ transplant recipients or those diagnosed with conditions believed to have equivalent levels of immunodeficiency.”

“New data suggests that some people with moderately to severely compromised immune systems do not always build the same level of immunity as people who are not immunocompromised,” said Walensky. “While immunocompromised people make up about 3% of the US adult population, they are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 because they are at greater risk of developing serious, longer-lasting illnesses.”

Authorities have not released a booster vaccination to anyone else fully vaccinated or to recipients of Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine, which is manufactured in the Janssen vaccines division.

“There is currently no data to support the use of an additional dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine following a Janssen Covid-19 primary vaccine in immunocompromised people. The FDA and CDC are actively working to provide guidance on this matter,” said Dr. Neela. from CDC Goswami wrote to ACIP in her presentation.

The CDC recommended a third dose for at-risk Americans 28 days or more after completing the first two rounds of shooting. Booster doses are also recommended for cancer patients and HIV patients after data showed that immune responses after the first two doses did not provide adequate protection against Covid-19 and its variants in these patients.

The additional recordings were recommended for Pfizer recipients aged 12 and over and for Moderna recipients aged 18 and over. The panel said it will revisit the recordings for younger Moderna recipients after the FDA clears the recordings for children.

Immunocompromised patients make up approximately 2.7% of the US adult population and 44% of breakthrough hospital-treated infections that make someone infected even after being fully vaccinated.

Studies suggest that a third dose of the vaccine might help people whose immune systems do not respond as well to a first or second dose. Five small studies cited by the CDC showed that 11% to 80% of people with compromised immune systems had no detectable antibodies to Covid after two shots.

Among immunocompromised patients who had no detectable antibody response, 33 to 50% developed an antibody response after receiving an additional dose, according to the CDC.

Patients at risk are also more likely to experience persistent Covid infections, the panel said. The data also suggests that they are likely to shed more viruses and potentially infect more people than those who are not immunocompromised.

Early data from small studies on the effects of booster doses in immunocompromised patients showed no serious side effects from a third vaccination with an mRNA vaccine and symptoms beyond those identified after the first two-dose dose.

Several countries, including Israel, the Dominican Republic, France, the UK and Germany, have either already started or are considering giving booster doses of Covid-19 vaccines.

Immunocompromised patients receiving a third dose should continue to wear a mask and social distancing, the panel said.

Survey data from hesitant immunocompromised patients show that, according to a panel presentation by Dr. Kathleen Dooling of the CDC still has many worried about the side effects of the vaccines and the speed at which the vaccines have been developed, as well as the general suspicion about the vaccines.

Around 10% of immunocompromised patients say they will “definitely not” receive a vaccine, another 9% say they are “unsure” or “probably not” and 44% say they will “definitely” get a vaccine. Those who hesitate are usually younger, belong to an ethnic or racial minority, or are female.

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Biden Officers Now Count on Weak People to Want Booster Pictures

WASHINGTON – Biden government health officials increasingly believe that vulnerable populations will need a booster dose even as research continues into how long coronavirus vaccines will remain effective.

Senior officials now say they believe that people over 65 or with compromised immune systems will most likely need a third vaccination from Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna, two vaccines based on the same technology that were used to vaccinate the vast majority of Americans until now. That’s a significant shift from a few weeks ago when the government said there wasn’t enough evidence to support boosters.

On Thursday, a key official with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the agency is looking into ways to give immune-compromised patients a third dose before regulators expand emergency approval for coronavirus vaccines, a move soon for Pfizer vaccination could be done.

Dr. Amanda Cohn, the chief medical officer of the CDC’s immunization division, told an agency advisory committee that officials are “actively seeking ways” to give certain people access to booster vaccinations “sooner than any possible change in government decisions”.

“So stay tuned,” she added.

The growing consensus within the government that at least some Americans need a booster dose is in part to do with research suggesting that the Pfizer vaccine is less effective against the coronavirus after about six months. More than half of those fully vaccinated in the United States to date have received Pfizer’s vaccine in two doses three weeks apart.

Pfizer’s ongoing global study of its clinical trial participants shows the vaccine’s effectiveness against symptomatic infections drops from a peak of 95 percent to 84 percent four to six months after the second dose, the company said.

Data from the Israeli government, which has fully vaccinated more than half of its population with doses of Pfizer since January, also suggests a downward trend in efficacy over time, though administrative officials view these data cautiously due to the large margin of error.

The latest figures from the Israeli Ministry of Health, released later this week, suggest that Pfizer’s vaccine was only 39 percent effective in preventing infections in the country in late June and early July, compared with 95 percent from January through April.

The vaccine remained more than 90 percent effective in preventing serious illnesses and almost as effective in preventing hospital stays. Israel began offering a third dose of Pfizer to citizens with severely compromised immune systems on July 12th.

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, who heads the infectious diseases division of the National Institutes of Health, said he was surprised at the apparently steep drop in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine suggested by the Israeli data. He said he wanted to compare it to data the CDC has collected from cohorts of thousands of people in the United States. “People raise their eyebrows a little,” he said.

While other questions abound, senior administrative officials said it was becoming increasingly clear that the vaccines would not provide unlimited immunity to the virus and that at least some people might need booster sessions nine months after their first vaccination. The government has already purchased more than enough vaccine to deliver the third dose of Pfizer and Moderna and has been quietly preparing to step up distribution efforts if necessary.

With so little data left public, many health officials and experts have spoken cautiously about booster vaccinations. Dr. Paul A. Offit, a member of the Food and Drug Administration’s external advisory committee of vaccine experts, said an increase in mild or moderate cases of Covid-19 in people who have been vaccinated does not necessarily mean that a booster is needed.

“The goal of this vaccine is not to prevent mild or mild, moderate infectious diseases,” he said. “The aim is to prevent hospitalization until death. At the moment this vaccine has withstood that. “

Updated

July 23, 2021, 10:06 p.m. ET

An early prospect of a third dose could also act as a deterrent against vaccination, warn other health experts. If Americans feel that immunity to the vaccines is short-lived, they are less likely to get their first vaccination.

“We don’t want people to believe that the vaccines are not effective when you talk about booster vaccinations,” said Dr. Fauci at a hearing before Congress on Tuesday. “You are highly effective.”

Among vaccine manufacturers, Pfizer has been particularly proactive in sharing its data with the government. But the government was stunned by the company’s public announcement earlier this month that it was planning to seek emergency FDA approval for a booster vaccination.

The company said early data from its booster study showed neutralizing antibody levels in clinical trial participants who received a third dose six months after the second was five to 10 times higher than those in recipients who received two doses.

Fearing that the American public would get the wrong news, the FDA and CDC responded with an unusual public statement: “Americans who have been fully vaccinated don’t need a booster right now.” They added, “We are prepared for booster doses, if and when science shows they are needed. “

Ordinarily, the FDA would approve the use of a booster, perhaps after a meeting of its external advisory committee. Then the CDC, which has its own advisory committee, would have to officially recommend it, said Dr. Offit.

Understand the state of vaccine mandates in the United States

But if the FDA fully licensed a vaccine, doctors would have much more leeway to prescribe a booster to their patients. Some health experts believe Pfizer could get this approval by fall this year.

At the CDC advisory board meeting on Thursday, Dr. Cohn, the medical director of the vaccines division, suggested that it might be possible to offer booster shots to people with compromised immune systems through a trial study or other means without waiting for the FDA

Dr. Camille Kotton, an infectious disease expert at Massachusetts General Hospital, told the panel that some patients, especially those who are more educated or “able to look after their own health care,” manage to get a third dose on their own, despite lack of green light from the government.

“Many took matters into their own hands,” she says. “I’m worried they might do this unattended,” she said, while the doctors’ hands are tied due to the lack of regulatory approval.

According to the CDC, people with a weakened immune system make up 2.7 percent of the population and include cancer, organ or stem cell transplants or HIV.

At the Senate Health Committee hearing Tuesday, several senators questioned administration health officials about how quickly they would act on the booster issue. Senator Mitt Romney, a Republican from Utah, said he was unhappy that officials couldn’t come up with a better schedule.

Senator Richard M. Burr, a Republican from North Carolina, noted that Israel is already offering a third chance to some of its most vulnerable citizens. “Why don’t we make the same decisions?” he asked.

Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the CDC, testified that scientists studied the effectiveness of the vaccines in tens of thousands of people, including nursing home residents and more than 5,000 key workers.

“Fortunately, we expect this to wear off, not go down,” she said of her effectiveness. “As we see that fade, we will – this will be our time to act.”

Pfizer is expected to soon publish its clinical studies on immunity declining and the benefits of booster shoots in articles in a peer-reviewed journal. Moderna hasn’t released any data on booster studies, officials said.

Johnson & Johnson’s single-use vaccine has so far played a minor role in the country’s vaccination campaign. Clinical trial data on the mode of action of this two-shot vaccine is expected next month.

Noah Weiland contributed the reporting.

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Attacked and Susceptible, Some Afghans Are Forming Their Personal Armies

KABUL, Afghanistan — The slaughter of students, mostly teenagers, at a tutoring center. The deaths of young athletes in a suicide bombing at a wrestling club. Mothers shot dead with newborns in their arms.

These relentless killings of Hazaras, a persecuted minority in Afghanistan, finally proved too much to bear for Zulfiqar Omid, a Hazara leader in the central part of the country.

In April, Mr. Omid began mobilizing armed men into militias to defend Hazara areas against the Taliban and the Islamic State affiliate in Afghanistan. He said he now commands 800 armed men at seven staging areas mustered into what he calls “self-protection groups.”

“Hazaras get killed in cities and on highways, but the government doesn’t protect them,” Mr. Omid said. “Enough is enough. We have to protect ourselves.”

As U.S. and NATO forces withdraw from Afghanistan, and talks falter between the Taliban and the American-backed government, ethnic groups across the country have formed militias or say they plan to arm themselves. The rush to raise fighters and weapons evokes the mujahedeen wars of the early 1990s, when rival militias killed thousands of civilians and left sections of Kabul in ruins.

A concerted and determined militia movement, even if nominally aligned with Afghan security forces, could fracture the unsteady government of President Ashraf Ghani and once again divide the country into fiefs ruled by warlords. Yet these makeshift armies may eventually serve as the last line of defense as security force bases and outposts steadily collapse in the face of a fierce onslaught of attacks by the Taliban.

Since the U.S. troop withdrawal was announced in April, regional strongmen have posted videos on social media showing armed men hoisting assault rifles and vowing to fight the Taliban. Some militia leaders fear the flagging peace talks in Doha, Qatar, will collapse after foreign troops depart and the Taliban will intensify an all-out assault to capture provincial capitals and lay siege to Kabul.

“For the first time in 20 years, power brokers are speaking publicly about mobilizing armed men,” the Afghanistan Analysts Network, a research group in Kabul, wrote in a June 4 report.

Hazaras have the most to fear from a return to power by the Taliban, which massacred thousands of the predominately Shiite group when the Sunni Muslim militants governed most of Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. The Taliban consider Hazaras heretics.

The most prominent Hazara militia commander is Abdul Ghani Alipur, whose militiamen in Wardak Province, a mountainous area that borders Kabul, have clashed with government forces. Mr. Alipur had been implicated in the shooting down of a military helicopter in March. In an interview, he denied any involvement, although an aide said at the time that Mr. Alipur’s militiamen had shot at the aircraft.

“If we don’t stand up and defend ourselves, history will repeat itself and we will be massacred like during the time of Abdul Rahman Khan,” Mr. Alipur said, referring to the Pashtun “Iron Emir” who ruled in the late 19th century, massacring and enslaving Hazaras. Afghan folklore says he displayed towers built from severed Hazara heads.

“They forced us to pick up guns,” Mr. Alipur said of the government, which has failed to protect Hazaras. “We must carry guns to protect ourselves.”

Over the past two decades, Hazaras have built thriving communities in west Kabul and in Hazarajat, their mountainous homeland in central Afghanistan. But with no militias of their own, they have been vulnerable to attack.

Hazara demands for an army escalated after up to 69 schoolgirls were killed in a bombing in Kabul on May 8. Less than a month later, three public transport minivans were bombed in Kabul’s Hazara neighborhoods, killing 18 civilians, most of them Hazara. Among them was a journalist and her mother, the police said. Since 2016, at least 766 Hazara have been killed in the capital alone in 23 attacks, according to New York Times data.

“Tajik have weapons, Pashtuns are armed,” said Arif Rahmani, a Hazara member of Parliament. “We Hazaras must also have a system to protect ourselves.”

Mahdi Raskih, another Hazara member of Parliament, said he had counted 35 major attacks against Hazaras in recent years — a campaign of genocide, he said. He said he had lost patience with government promises of protection for Hazara schools, mosques and social centers.

“If they can’t provide security, be honest and admit it,” Mr. Raskih said. “People believe the government feels no responsibility for them, so our people must pick up guns and fight.”

Hazara soldiers, police and intelligence officers have quit or have been forced out of the security forces because of discrimination, Mr. Raskih said, providing militias with a valuable source of trained men. Many Hazara politicians, including Mr. Ghani’s second vice president, Sarwar Danesh, have called on the government to stop what they call a genocide of Hazaras. Hundreds of Hazaras have taken to Twitter, at #StopHazarasGenocide, to demand government protection.

Even as some Hazaras mobilize, some Tajik and Uzbek groups never completely disbanded the militias that helped U.S. forces topple the Taliban in 2001. Other ethnic commanders have recently begun forming militias as the Taliban continue to overrun government bases and outposts.

Many of these power brokers are locked in an enduring struggle with the Ghani administration, vying for control, while trying to gain the upper hand in a post-withdrawal Afghanistan.

Nationally, one prominent leader to maintain a militia is Ahmad Massoud, 32, son of Ahmad Shah Massoud, a charismatic commander of the Northern Alliance that helped U.S. forces rout the Taliban in late 2001.

Ahmad Massoud has assembled a coalition of militias in northern Afghanistan. Calling his armed uprising the Second Resistance, Mr. Massoud is purportedly backed by a few thousand fighters and about a dozen aging militia commanders who fought the Taliban and the Soviets.

Some Afghan leaders say Mr. Massoud is too inexperienced to effectively lead an armed movement. But some Western leaders view him as a valuable source of intelligence on Al Qaeda and Islamic State groups inside Afghanistan.

Elsewhere, the roll call of regional leaders who appear to be mobilizing reads like a who’s who of the country’s civil war in the 1990s. But their forces are nowhere near as commanding now.

The brutal Uzbek strongman, Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum, has long maintained a private army of thousands from his base in Jowzjan Province. General Dostum, who has been accused of war crimes and sodomizing an Uzbek rival with an assault rifle, would nonetheless be a central figure in any armed uprising against the Taliban.

Another power broker whose actions are being watched closely, Atta Muhammad Noor, is a former warlord and commanding figure in Balkh Province, which includes Afghanistan’s commercial hub, Mazar-i-Sharif. He said on Tuesday that he would mobilize his militia forces alongside government troops to try to retake territory that had fallen to the Taliban in recent days after the insurgents’ rapid offensive in the north.

In Herat Province in the west, the former Tajik warlord Mohammed Ismail Khan, another Northern Alliance commander who helped defeat the Taliban, recently broadcast a raucous gathering of armed men on his Facebook page.

Mr. Khan told supporters that a half-million people in Herat were poised to take up arms to “defend you and keep your city safe” — a clear signal that he intended to mobilize his militia if peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban collapsed.

Also in Herat, Kamran Alizai, a Pashtun who leads the provincial council, said he commanded a large number of armed men ready to mobilize at a moment’s notice.

“I don’t want to tell you how many armed people I have, but everyone is armed in Afghanistan,” Mr. Alizai said.

If government forces were unable to hold Herat, he said, “We will stand by them and fight the Taliban.”

The Afghanistan Analysts Network reported that Abdul Basir Salangi, a former militia commander and an ex-police chief in Kabul, said in a speech in January that militias were forming in the Salang district in north-central Afghanistan in case talks collapsed. “Such talk has become more blatant since the U.S. troop withdrawal announcement,” the report said.

For Hazara militias, a wild card are thousands of Hazara former fighters of the Fatemiyoun Division, trained by Iran and deployed to Syria in 2014 through 2017, ostensibly to protect Shiite Muslim religious sites from the Sunni Muslim-dominated Islamic State. Others were sent to Yemen to fight alongside Houthi rebels against the Saudi-backed government.

Many Fatemiyoun fighters have returned to Afghanistan, raising fears they will be incorporated into Hazara militias, providing Iran a proxy force inside the country. But analysts and Hazara leaders say former Fatemiyoun have been turned away because of their Iranian ties and potential prosecution by the Afghan government.

In Kabul, many Hazaras say they are ready to take up guns. Mohammad, a shopkeeper who like many Afghans goes by one name, said he crossed a ditch flowing with blood when he ran from his shop to help after explosions rocked the neighboring Sayed Ul-Shuhada high school on May 8, killing the dozens of schoolgirls as they left for home.

“I’m 24, and there have been 24 attacks in my lifetime” against Hazaras, he said. In May 2020, he said, he was visiting his pregnant mother in a maternity ward when gunmen killed 15 people, including mothers cradling newborns.

Mr. Mohammad said several of his friends have recently joined militias led by Mr. Alipur and Mr. Omid.

“If this situation continues,” he said, “I’ll pick up a gun and kill whoever kills us.”

Asadullah Timory contributed reporting from Herat Province, Farooq Jan Mangal from Khost Province and Taimoor Shah from Kandahar Province.

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WHO says variant is the quickest and fittest and can ‘choose off’ most weak

Coronavirus security posters will be displayed in the window of the Sondheim Theater on June 14, 2021 in London, England. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has confirmed a four-week delay in the final relaxation of coronavirus restrictions amid concerns over the Delta variant of the virus and rising infection rates.

Rob Pinney | Getty Images

The highly contagious Delta variant is the fastest and strongest coronavirus strain to date and will “pick up” the most vulnerable people, especially in places with low Covid-19 vaccination rates, World Health Organization officials warned on Monday.

Delta, first identified in India, has the potential to be “more deadly because it is more efficient at transmitting between people and will eventually find those at risk who will become critically ill, hospitalized and potentially die”, said Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO emergency program, said at a press conference.

Ryan said world leaders and public health officials can help defend the most vulnerable by donating and distributing Covid vaccines.

“We can protect these vulnerable people, these frontline workers,” said Ryan, “and the fact that we didn’t, as General Manager (Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus) said time and again, is a catastrophic moral failure at a global level . “

The WHO said on Friday that Delta is becoming the predominant variant of the disease worldwide.

The agency declared Delta a “questionable variant” last month. A variant can be described as “worrying” if, according to the health organization, it has been shown to be more contagious, fatal, or more resistant to current vaccines and treatments.

Delta is now replacing Alpha, the highly contagious variant that swept Europe and later the United States earlier this year, said Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, in a recent interview.

Studies suggest it is about 60% more transmissible than alpha, which was more contagious than the original strain that emerged from Wuhan, China, in late 2019.

Delta has now spread to 92 countries, said Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO technical director for Covid, on Monday. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, it now accounts for at least 10% of all new cases in the United States and is on its way to becoming the dominant variant in the nation.

In the United Kingdom, Delta recently became the predominant variant, surpassing its native alpha variant, which was first discovered in the country last fall. The Delta variant now accounts for more than 60% of new cases in the UK

WHO officials said there are reports that the Delta variant also causes more severe symptoms, but that more research is needed to confirm these conclusions. However, there is evidence that the Delta strain may cause different symptoms than other variants.

“This special Delta variant is faster, it is fitter, it will intercept the more susceptible ones more efficiently than previous variants. So if people are left without a vaccination, they are even at another risk, ”Ryan said on Monday.

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Physician warns Southern states susceptible to Delta variant this summer time

Dr. Peter Hotez warned that southern US states could feel the effects of the highly transmissible Delta-Covid variant as early as this summer, in part due to low vaccination rates.

“I’m really holding my breath about the south and what’s happening this summer,” said Hotez, co-director of the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children’s Hospital.

“Here in the south, especially in Louisiana, Mississippi, we are seeing really low vaccination rates. And in many of these southern states, less than 10% of teenagers are vaccinated, so we have a real vulnerability here, ”said Hotez.

A new study in the UK found that Pfizer’s vaccine was 88% effective against the Delta variant, first discovered in India.

Vaccination rates vary across the US: More than 50% of the population in many northeastern states are now fully vaccinated, compared with only about 30% of the population in many southeastern states, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

On Tuesday, White House senior medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci, on the importance of vaccines in protecting against the Delta variant, which he believes is responsible for more than 6% of US coronavirus infections that scientists have genetically sequenced.

Hotez told CNBC’s “The News with Shepard Smith” that despite CDC warnings about an unexpectedly high number of cases of heart infections in 16- to 24-year-olds, he is still recommending Covid vaccinations for teenagers.

“I’m pretty confident that the possibility of severe Covid-19 from this new Delta variant is a much bigger problem, so I strongly recommend teenagers get their two doses of the vaccine,” said Hotez.

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Business

As Masks Mandates Carry, Retail Staff Once more Really feel Weak

Marilyn Reece, the senior bakery clerk at a Kroger in Batesville, Miss., Noted this month that more customers were walking through the store without a mask after the state mandate to wear face coverings was lifted. Kroger still needs them, but that doesn’t seem to matter.

When Ms. Reece, a 56-year-old breast cancer survivor, sees these shoppers, she prays. “Please, please, don’t make me wait for you because in my heart I don’t want to ignore you, I don’t want to refuse you,” she said. “But then I think I don’t want to get sick and die either. It’s not that people are bad, but you don’t know who they came in contact with. “

Ms. Reece’s increased concern is shared by retail and fast food workers in states like Mississippi and Texas, where governments lifted mask mandates before the majority of people were vaccinated and as new variants of the coronavirus emerge. It feels like a return to the early days of the pandemic when companies said customers were required to wear masks but there were no legal requirements and numerous buyers simply turned it down. Many employees say that their stores do not enforce the requirements and that they risk verbal or physical arguments when reaching out to customers.

“It has a huge false sense of security and it is no different now than it was a year ago,” said Ms. Reece, who is still unable to get a vaccine due to allergies. “The only difference we have now is that people are being vaccinated, but enough people have not been vaccinated that they should have overturned the mandate.”

For many people who work in retail, especially grocery stores and big box chains, the lifting of the mask is another example of how little protection and appreciation they have received during the pandemic. While they were hailed as essential workers, this rarely resulted in additional wages on top of their low wages. Grocery workers were initially not given a priority for vaccinations in most states, despite health experts advising the public to limit time in grocery stores because of the risk of new coronavirus variants. (Texas opened availability to everyone 16 and older on Monday.)

The issue has seriously gained in importance: on Monday, President Biden urged governors and mayors to maintain or reintroduce the order to wear masks if the nation grapples with a possible spike in virus cases.

The United Food and Commercial Workers union, which represents nearly 900,000 food workers, announced this month that at least 34,700 food workers across the country had been infected or exposed to Covid-19 and that at least 155 workers had died from the virus. The recent mass shootings at a grocery store in Boulder, Colorado have only further shaken workers and increased concerns for their own safety.

Diane Cambre, a 50-year-old ground supervisor at a kroger in Midlothian, Texas, said she had spent much of the past year worrying about bringing the virus home to her 9-year-old son and from interacting with it To fear customers who were frivolous about the possibility of getting sick. She wears a double mask in the store despite irritating her skin, already itchy from psoriasis, and changes as soon as she gets home.

After Texas Governor Greg Abbott said on March 2 that he would end the statewide mask mandate within the next week, Ms. Cambre said customers “walked in immediately without a mask and so on and it was quite difficult to get someone to wear one.” “Management is supposed to offer masks to people who don’t wear them, but if they don’t put them on, nothing else is done,” she said.

Asking customers to wear masks can lead to tense exchanges and even tantrums in adults pushing the cart.

“Some of our customers are dramatically vulnerable so they will start screaming, ‘I’m not wearing this mask,’ and you can tell they are very rude and very harsh in their voices,” said Ms. Cambre, a UFCW member, said. Monitoring the self-checkout aisles has been particularly difficult, she said, as customers who need help will request that they come by, making it impossible to stay within two meters.

At times when she’s been trying to explain the need for distancing, “they say,” OK, and that’s just a government thing, “she said.” It really is mentally challenging. “

Updated

March 30, 2021, 9:12 p.m. ET

A representative from Kroger said the chain “will continue to require everyone in our stores across the country to wear masks until all of our frontline grocers can get the Covid-19 vaccine,” and that they will workers who do one-time Make payments of $ 100, offering one-time payments, received the vaccine.

Because of different government and business mandates, some workers are concerned about further confrontations. The retail industry tried to address the problem last fall when a large trade group put together training to help workers manage and de-escalate conflicts with customers resisting masks, social distancing and capacity constraints. Denial of service for those without a mask or being told to leave has led to incidents over the past year such as slapping a cashier in the face, breaking an arm by a Target employee, and fatally shooting a Family Dollar security officer .

That month, a 53-year-old man in League City, Texas, near Houston, confronted an employee who refused to wear a required mask in a Jack in the Box employee and then stabbed a store manager three times as if from a report in The Houston Chronicle emerges. On March 14, a ramen shop in San Antonio with racist graffiti was destroyed after its owner criticized Mr. Abbott on television for lifting the mask mandate in Texas.

On March 17, a 65-year-old woman was arrested in a Texas City office depot after refusing to wear a mask or leaving the store just days after an arrest warrant was issued for her in Galveston, Texas because they had behaved similarly at a Bank of America location.

MaryAnn Kaylor, the owner of two antique stores in Dallas, including Lula B’s Design District, said lifting the mask mandate was very important to business and people’s behavior.

“He should have focused more on getting people vaccinated rather than trying to open everything up,” she said of Governor Abbott, noting that Texas has one of the slowest vaccination rates in the country.

“You still have cases in Texas every day and you still have people dying from Covid,” she said. “This complete removal of mandates is stupid. It shouldn’t have been based on politics – it should have been based on science. “

Some Texans have started to go to mask-friendly facilities. Ms. Kaylor said there were lists on Facebook of Dallas companies in need of masks and that people consulted her to find out where to buy groceries and make other purchases.

Emily Francois, a sales rep at a Walmart in Port Arthur, Texas, said customers ignored signs to wear masks and Walmart did not enforce the policy. So Ms. Francois stands six feet from non-masked buyers, though this annoys some of them. “My life is more important,” she said.

“I see customers walk in without a mask and they cough, sneeze, they don’t cover their mouths,” said Ms. Francois, who has worked at Walmart for 14 years and is a member of United for Respect, an advocacy group. “Customers who come into the store without a mask make us feel like we’re not worthy and unsafe.”

Phillip Keene, a Walmart spokesperson, said, “Our policy of requiring employees and customers to wear masks in our stores has helped keep them safe during the pandemic and we are not currently lifting these measures.”

Before the pandemic, Ms. Reece, the Mississippi Kroger employee, wore a mask to protect herself from the flu because of her cancer diagnosis, she said.

She said 99 percent of customers in her small store wore masks during the pandemic. “When they had to put it on, they put it on,” she said. “It’s like giving a child a piece of candy – that child will eat those candies if you don’t take them away.”

She is concerned about the potential harm from new varieties, especially those that don’t cover her mouth. “You just have to pray and pray that you won’t come within six or ten feet of them,” said Ms. Reece, who is also a UFCW member and has worked for Kroger for more than 30 years. “I know people want it to go back to normal, but you can’t just get it back to normal.”

Categories
Health

Weak Inmates Left in Jail as Covid Rages

On December 9th, Rae Haltzman, 65 years old and with high blood pressure, started vomiting but could not call for help. She lay with a blanket on the locked visiting room door and “waited for someone to come,” she wrote in a statement filed with the court. When she spotted a psychologist leaving the building, I knocked on the door and asked him to get a paramedic.

Ms. Haltzman was eventually hospitalized for nine days. After she was released on December 18, she was taken alone to a locked room “normally used for suicide surveillance or drug withdrawal cases,” she wrote. She was held there until January 2, despite the hospital’s infectious disease specialist saying there was no need to isolate her.

“I had panic attacks from being alone in the room for so long,” she said. “I felt like I was being punished for getting sick all the time.”

Another inmate, Denise Bonfilio, also fell acutely ill in the visiting room of the men’s prison. Her lips turned blue and she was taken to the hospital. She was found to be dehydrated but not admitted, and she returned to the room.

Due to her food allergies, Ms. Bonfilio was often unable to eat the meals provided, which may have contributed to her dehydration. In an interview, she described the treatment in the isolation room as “physically and emotionally brutal”.

“It was like surviving the fittest,” said Ms. Bonfilio.

The inmates had to order the items they needed from the inspector, recalled Ms. Torres, who was detained on December 23. “We literally bought halls, ibuprofen, and hot tea,” she said.

“We were all afraid,” said Mrs. Spagnardi. “We all thought we were going to die there and no one would know until they counted.”

Categories
Politics

Saudi fund susceptible after MBS actions in Khashoggi killing, ex-Obama official says

According to a former senior diplomat in the Obama administration, the actions of the Saudi crown prince in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi may have exposed the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund to repercussions.

The government of Biden released a previously classified intelligence report on Friday in which Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia approved the plan to assassinate Khashoggi in 2018.

The Saudi sovereign wealth fund, known as the Public Investment Fund, is managed by MBS. It appears to have played a role in the purchase of the plane that took Khashoggi’s murderer to Turkey, where the murder took place.

“If so, it could become a target for US human rights sanctions,” said Joel Rubin, former deputy assistant secretary of state. That, in turn, could “cause an economic earthquake,” he said.

“If the United States determines that Khashoggi’s murder was a targeted human rights violation, the perpetrators and supporters of that murder could be sanctioned under the Magnitsky Act,” said Rubin.

The Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act gives the President the power to impose economic sanctions, freeze U.S. assets, and refuse entry to the U.S. for foreigners who have committed human rights abuses or corruption, while Americans are prohibited from doing business with him or her . Magnitsky Law was used against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s cronies. Putin called it “a purely political, unfriendly act.”

Shortly after the secret service report was published on Friday, Foreign Minister Antony Blinken announced that the US had banned 76 people from Saudi Arabia. He called it the “Khashoggi Ban”. Blinken added that the US will not tolerate anyone who threatens or assaults activists, dissidents and journalists on behalf of foreign governments. However, no direct action has been taken against MBS.

The Saudi government rejected the results of the US report.

SWFs are widespread in oil-rich countries. They provide a haven where countries can store considerable wealth and keep that money in a self-controlled suitcase.

Funds such as the MBS-led Public Investment Fund help protect countries from oil price shocks that affect their annual budgetary positions while also making the country resilient to external financial pressures. The Public Investment Fund has assets of more than $ 360 billion and is the eighth largest sovereign wealth fund in the world by total assets.

“The Saudi fund, almost five decades old, is massive and guarantees the kingdom long-term financial stability,” said Rubin. “But it can also be a target for abuse, mismanagement and corruption.”

In 2018, NBC News learned that the CIA concluded that MBS was commanding the hit squad who lured Khashoggi to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, killed him and cut his body into pieces.

MBS is the heir to the Saudi crown. Rubin told CNBC that his domestic critics will see the public investment fund’s exposure to potential sanctions as another sign of his ruthlessness and willingness to both risk Saudi assets and put the country in international crosshairs for his personal agenda.

“The international private sector, which initially avoided Saudi Arabia after the assassination of Khashoggi, will see this as another setback for public relations work in engagements with Saudi Arabia,” said Rubin. “It could also open the fund to increased controls, lawsuits and legislative action against the fund’s activities from both overseas and Saudi Arabia.”

Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, told CNBC’s The News with Shepard Smith that President Joe Biden would not make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” as it would mean US economic and military ties to interrupt the Saudis.

Even so, Biden said in 2019, “We wanted to actually get them to pay the price and actually make them the pariah for who they are.”