Tag: Variant

Categories
Politics

False Experiences of a New ‘U.S. Variant’ Got here from White Home Process Pressure

False Reports of a New ‘U.S. Variant’ Came from White House Task Force

Reports of a highly contagious new variant in the United States released on Friday by several news outlets are based on speculative statements by Dr. Deborah Birx and are inaccurate according to several government officials.

The flawed report arose recently at a meeting at which Dr. Birx, a member of the White House’s coronavirus task force, presented diagrams of the escalating cases in the country. She suggested to other members of the task force that a new, more transferable variant originating in the US could explain the surge, as did another variant in the UK.

Their hypothesis made it a weekly report sent to the state governors. “This fall / winter rise was almost twice as fast as the spring and summer rise. This acceleration suggests that there may be a US variant that has evolved here, on top of the UK variant that is already spreading in our communities and potentially 50% more transferable, ”the report said. “Aggressive attenuation must be used to match a more aggressive virus.”

CDC officials in dismay tried to remove the speculative statements, but were unsuccessful, according to three people familiar with the events.

CDC officials disagreed with their assessment and asked to have them removed, but they were told no, according to a frustrated CDC official who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation.

Dr. Birx could not be reached immediately for comment.

News of a possible new variant appeared on CNBC Friday afternoon and quickly spread to other branches. In response to media inquiries about the variant, the CDC issued a formal statement refuting the theory.

“Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are monitoring all emerging variants of the coronavirus, including the 5,700 samples collected in November and December,” said Jason McDonald, an agency spokesman. “So far, neither CDC researchers nor analysts have seen any particular variant emerge in the US,” he said.

Variants in circulation in the US include B.1.1.7, which was first identified in the UK and is now driving a surge and overwhelming hospitals. The variant has been discovered in a handful of states, but the CDC estimates it currently accounts for less than 0.5 percent of cases in the country.

Another variant that circulates in small amounts in the US, known as B 1.346, contains a deletion that can make vaccines less effective. “But I didn’t see anything about increased transmission,” said Michael Worobey, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona who discovered this variant.

This variant has been in the US for three months and also accounts for less than 0.5 percent of cases. Therefore, it is unlikely to be more contagious than other variants, according to a CDC scientist who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak about the matter.

All viruses evolve and the coronavirus is no different. “Because of the scientific understanding of viruses, it is very likely that many variants will develop simultaneously around the world,” said McDonald of the CDC. “However, it may take weeks or months to determine if there is a single variant of the virus that is causing Covid-19 to fuel the surge in the US, much like the UK.”

Carl Zimmer reported from New Haven and Noah Weiland from Washington DC

Categories
Health

U.S. Is Blind to Contagious New Virus Variant, Scientists Warn

U.S. Is Blind to Contagious New Virus Variant, Scientists Warn

Experten warnen davor, dass die Vereinigten Staaten ohne ein robustes System zur Identifizierung genetischer Variationen des Coronavirus schlecht gerüstet sind, um eine gefährliche neue Mutante aufzuspüren, und lassen die Gesundheitsbeamten blind, wenn sie versuchen, die schwerwiegende Bedrohung zu bekämpfen.

Die Variante, die jetzt in Großbritannien auf dem Vormarsch ist und die Krankenhäuser mit neuen Fällen belastet, ist in den USA derzeit selten. Aber es könnte in den nächsten Wochen explodieren und neuen Druck auf amerikanische Krankenhäuser ausüben, von denen einige bereits kurz vor dem Bruch stehen.

In den Vereinigten Staaten gibt es kein landesweites System zur Überprüfung des Coronavirus-Genoms auf neue Mutationen, einschließlich derjenigen, die von der neuen Variante getragen werden. Ungefähr 1,4 Millionen Menschen testen jede Woche positiv auf das Virus, aber Forscher führen nur eine Genomsequenzierung durch – eine Methode, mit der die neue Variante definitiv erkannt werden kann – an weniger als 3.000 dieser wöchentlichen Proben. Und diese Arbeit wird von einem Flickenteppich aus akademischen, staatlichen und kommerziellen Labors geleistet.

Wissenschaftler sagen, dass ein nationales Überwachungsprogramm in der Lage sein würde, festzustellen, wie weit verbreitet die neue Variante ist, und dabei zu helfen, aufkommende Krisenherde einzudämmen, was das entscheidende Zeitfenster verlängert, in dem schutzbedürftige Menschen im ganzen Land geimpft werden könnten. Das würde mehrere hundert Millionen Dollar oder mehr kosten. Während dies wie ein steiler Preis erscheinen mag, ist es ein winziger Bruchteil der 16 Billionen US-Dollar an wirtschaftlichen Verlusten, die die Vereinigten Staaten aufgrund von Covid-19 schätzungsweise erlitten haben.

“Wir brauchen eine Art Führung”, sagte Dr. Charles Chiu, ein Forscher an der University of California in San Francisco, dessen Team einige der ersten Fälle der neuen Variante in Kalifornien entdeckte. „Dies muss ein System sein, das auf nationaler Ebene implementiert wird. Ohne diese engagierte Unterstützung geht es einfach nicht. “

Mit einem solchen System könnten Gesundheitsbeamte die Öffentlichkeit in den betroffenen Gebieten warnen und neue Maßnahmen einleiten, um mit der Variante fertig zu werden – beispielsweise die Verwendung besserer Masken, Kontaktverfolgung, Schließung von Schulen oder vorübergehende Sperrungen – und dies frühzeitig tun, anstatt zu warten Eine neue Welle überflutete Krankenhäuser mit Kranken.

Die eingehende Biden-Administration ist möglicherweise offen für die Idee. “Der gewählte Präsident unterstützt ein nationales Testprogramm, das dazu beitragen kann, die Verbreitung von COVID-19 zu stoppen und Varianten zu finden”, sagte TJ Ducklo, ein Sprecher des Übergangs. „Das bedeutet mehr Tests, mehr Laborkapazität und Genomsequenzierung. Dies ist wichtig, um COVID-19 zu kontrollieren und die USA darauf vorzubereiten, zukünftige Krankheitsbedrohungen zu erkennen und zu stoppen. “

Experten verweisen auf Großbritannien als Vorbild dafür, was die USA tun könnten. Britische Forscher sequenzieren das Genom – das heißt das gesamte genetische Material in einem Coronavirus – aus bis zu 10 Prozent der neuen positiven Proben. Selbst wenn die USA nur ein Prozent der Genome aus dem ganzen Land oder etwa 2.000 neue Proben pro Tag sequenzieren würden, würde dies ein helles Licht auf die neue Variante sowie andere möglicherweise auftretende Varianten werfen.

Aber die USA verfehlen dieses Ziel jetzt weit. Im vergangenen Monat haben amerikanische Forscher laut GISAID, einer internationalen Datenbank, in der Forscher neue Genome von Coronaviren teilen, nur einige hundert Genome pro Tag sequenziert. Und nur wenige Staaten waren für den größten Teil der Bemühungen verantwortlich. Kalifornien liegt mit 8.896 Genomen an der Spitze. In North Dakota, wo bisher mehr als 93.500 Fälle aufgetreten sind, haben Forscher kein einziges Genom sequenziert.

Im März startete Großbritannien das, wonach sich viele amerikanische Experten sehnen: ein gut geführtes nationales Programm zur Verfolgung von Mutationen des neuen Coronavirus. Das Land investierte 20 Millionen Pfund – ungefähr 27 Millionen US-Dollar – in die Schaffung eines wissenschaftlichen Konsortiums, das Krankenhäuser im ganzen Land einbezog und ihnen Standardverfahren für den Versand von Proben an spezielle Labors gab, in denen ihre Viren sequenziert wurden. Mithilfe von Cloud Computing analysierten Experten die Mutationen und fanden heraus, wo jede Linie des Virus auf einen Evolutionsbaum passt.

“Was Großbritannien mit der Sequenzierung getan hat, ist für mich der Mondschuss der Pandemie”, sagte Emma Hodcroft, eine molekulare Epidemiologin an der Universität Bern in der Schweiz, die Nextstrain, ein in Seattle ansässiges Projekt zur Verfolgung von Krankheitserregern, mitgestaltet hat. “Sie haben beschlossen, Sequenzierung zu machen, und sie haben einfach ein absolut unglaubliches Programm von Grund auf neu erstellt.”

Das intensive Programm Großbritanniens zur Verfolgung der genetischen Entwicklung des Coronavirus ist wahrscheinlich der Grund, warum es im vergangenen Monat als erstes Land die neue Variante namens B.1.1.7 identifiziert hat. Großbritannien hat bisher 209.038 Coronavirus-Genome sequenziert – fast zwei Drittel aller weltweit sequenzierten. Die USA, ein fünfmal größeres Land, haben nur 58.560 Genome sequenziert.

In den USA hat eine Konstellation von Labors, hauptsächlich an Universitäten, seit dem Frühjahr Coronavirus-Genome analysiert. Viele von ihnen geben ihre eigenen bescheidenen Mittel aus, um die Arbeit zu erledigen. “Es kommt alles auf diese Basisbewegungen an, um es in Gang zu bringen”, sagte Kristian Andersen, Virologe am Scripps Research Institute in San Diego, dessen Labor an der Spitze dieser Bemühungen steht.

Aktualisiert

6. Januar 2021, 19:09 Uhr ET

Dr. Andersen und andere Wissenschaftler beleuchteten den Weg des Coronavirus, der sich über den Globus und die Vereinigten Staaten ausbreitete. Einige der frühen Fälle in den Vereinigten Staaten stammten aus China, dem Geburtsort des neuartigen Coronavirus, aber es waren Reisende aus Europa, die die meisten Fälle in viele amerikanische Städte brachten.

Nach diesen ersten Erfolgen wurde das Screening jedoch nur in geringem Umfang fortgesetzt. “Es hat sicherlich nicht zu einer Revolution in der genomischen Überwachung geführt”, sagte Dr. Andersen.

Im Mai haben die Zentren für die Kontrolle und Prävention von Krankheiten Dutzende von Labors in den USA in einem Konsortium zusammengeführt. Es ist bekannt als SARS-CoV-2-Sequenzierung für das Notfallkonsortium für öffentliche Gesundheit, Epidemiologie und Überwachung oder SPHÄREN.

Wissenschaftler, die an SPHERES teilnehmen, sagen, dass dies ein guter Anfang war. “Es ist ein wirklich nützliches Netzwerk für Wissenschaftler, Akademiker und Forscher, um sich in den USA gegenseitig zu helfen”, sagte Dr. Hodcroft. Labore, die sich an der Sequenzierung von Coronavirus-Genomen beteiligen wollten, konnten sich von anderen Labors beraten lassen, anstatt das wissenschaftliche Rad neu zu erfinden.

Es handelt sich jedoch nicht um ein nationales Programm mit einem klaren Mandat und Ressourcen, um sicherzustellen, dass Mutationen in den USA sorgfältig überwacht werden. “Als Land brauchen wir eine genomische Überwachung”, sagte Dr. Andersen. “Es braucht ein Bundesmandat.”

Die CDC lehnte es ab, die Wissenschaftler, die SPHERES betreiben, für ein Interview zur Verfügung zu stellen. “CDC arbeitet mit staatlichen Laboratorien für öffentliche Gesundheit, Wissenschaft und Handel zusammen, um die Kapazität zur Überwachung häuslicher Stämme zu erhöhen und wöchentlich Tausende von Proben zu sequenzieren”, schrieb Brian Katzowitz, ein Sprecher der Agentur, in einer Erklärung.

Der Coronavirus-Ausbruch >

Wissenswertes zum Testen

Verwirrt von den Bedingungen zum Testen von Coronaviren? Lasst uns helfen:

    • Antikörper: Ein vom Immunsystem produziertes Protein, das bestimmte Arten von Viren, Bakterien oder anderen Eindringlingen erkennen und genau daran binden kann.
    • Antikörpertest / Serologietest: Ein Test, der für das Coronavirus spezifische Antikörper nachweist. Ungefähr eine Woche, nachdem das Coronavirus den Körper infiziert hat, beginnen Antikörper im Blut zu erscheinen. Da die Entwicklung von Antikörpern so lange dauert, kann ein Antikörpertest eine laufende Infektion nicht zuverlässig diagnostizieren. Es kann jedoch Personen identifizieren, die in der Vergangenheit dem Coronavirus ausgesetzt waren.
    • Antigen-Test: Dieser Test erkennt Teile von Coronavirus-Proteinen, die als Antigene bezeichnet werden. Antigen-Tests sind schnell und dauern nur fünf Minuten. Sie sind jedoch weniger genau als Tests, bei denen genetisches Material aus dem Virus nachgewiesen wird.
    • Coronavirus: Jedes Virus, das zur Familie der Orthocoronavirinae-Viren gehört. Das Coronavirus, das Covid-19 verursacht, ist als SARS-CoV-2 bekannt.
    • Covid19: Die durch das neue Coronavirus verursachte Krankheit. Der Name steht für Coronavirus Disease 2019.
    • Isolierung und Quarantäne: Isolation ist die Trennung von Menschen, die wissen, dass sie an einer ansteckenden Krankheit leiden, von denen, die nicht krank sind. Quarantäne bezieht sich auf die Einschränkung der Bewegung von Personen, die einem Virus ausgesetzt waren.
    • Nasopharyngealabstrich: Ein langer, flexibler Stab mit einem weichen Tupfer, der tief in die Nase eingeführt wird, um Proben aus dem Raum zu entnehmen, in dem die Nasenhöhle auf den Hals trifft. Proben für Coronavirus-Tests können auch mit Tupfern entnommen werden, die nicht so tief in die Nase reichen – manchmal auch als Nasentupfer bezeichnet – oder mit Mund- oder Rachenabstrichen.
    • Polymerasekettenreaktion (PCR): Wissenschaftler verwenden PCR, um Millionen Kopien von genetischem Material in einer Probe zu erstellen. Mithilfe von PCR-Tests können Forscher das Coronavirus auch dann nachweisen, wenn es knapp ist.
    • Viruslast: Die Menge an Viren im Körper einer Person. Bei Menschen, die mit dem Coronavirus infiziert sind, kann die Viruslast ihren Höhepunkt erreichen, bevor sie Symptome zeigen, wenn überhaupt Symptome auftreten.

Am Mittwoch kündigten die Gensequenzierungsunternehmen Helix und Illumina eine Zusammenarbeit an, um die Entstehung von B.1.1.7 mit Unterstützung der CDC zu verfolgen. Die Unternehmen sequenzieren bis zu 1.000 Genome pro Woche. Karen Birmingham, eine Sprecherin von Illumina, wies jedoch schnell darauf hin, dass das Pilotprogramm weit entfernt von einer nationalen Anstrengung sei. “Wir begrüßen die genomische Überwachung in den USA viel umfassender und koordinierter”, sagte sie.

Dank des robusten britischen Systems zur genetischen Überwachung konnten Wissenschaftler besser verstehen, wie gefährlich die neue Variante ist. Eine ernüchternde Studie, die am Montag von Forschern des britischen Sequenzierungskonsortiums veröffentlicht wurde, ergab, dass die Sperrung des Landes im November die Übertragung gewöhnlicher Varianten des Coronavirus gut beschleunigte, die Verbreitung von B.1.1.7 jedoch nicht aufhielt.

Epidemiologen messen die Ausbreitungsrate eines Virus mit der sogenannten Reproduktionszahl. Wenn die Fortpflanzungszahl 1 ist, bedeutet dies, dass jede infizierte Person sie im Durchschnitt an eine andere Person weitergibt. Eine wachsende Epidemie hat eine Fortpflanzungszahl von mehr als 1, während eine schwindende Zahl weniger als 1 beträgt. Die britischen Forscher schätzten, dass andere Coronaviren als B.1.1.7 während der Sperrung eine Fortpflanzungszahl von 0,95 hatten, während B.1.1.7 dies getan hatte eine Reproduktionszahl von 1,45.

Die Geschwindigkeit, mit der B.1.1.7 häufiger geworden ist, deutet darauf hin, dass es einige biologische Merkmale aufweist, die eine bessere Ausbreitung von einem Wirt zum anderen ermöglichen. Laborexperimente haben gezeigt, dass einige seiner Mutationen es dem Virus ermöglichen können, sich erfolgreicher an Zellen in den Atemwegen zu binden.

Am Montag gab die britische Regierung bekannt, dass das Land in eine noch strengere nationale Sperrung geraten werde als im November. “Sie dürfen nicht gehen oder außerhalb Ihres Hauses sein, außer wenn dies erforderlich ist”, sagte die Regierung in einem Gutachten.

Es ist noch zu früh, um zu wissen, wie sich B.1.1.7 auf die amerikanische Pandemie auswirken wird – und vor allem, ob es die US-Krankenhäuser wie die in Großbritannien überwältigen wird. Die meisten Menschen, die sich infizieren, geben das Virus nicht an andere weiter. Ein kleiner Teil der Menschen ist für einen Großteil seiner Übertragung in sogenannten Super-Spreading-Ereignissen verantwortlich. Sie landen zur richtigen Zeit am richtigen Ort, um viele Menschen gleichzeitig zu infizieren.

Wenn die neue Variante jedoch dieselbe Flugbahn wie in Großbritannien einschlägt, wird sie in den kommenden Wochen die gängigeren, weniger ansteckenden Varianten übertreffen. “Es könnte in den nächsten Monaten das dominierende Virus werden”, sagte Nathan Grubaugh, Virologe an der Yale University.

Eines ist jedoch sicher. Mitarbeiter des öffentlichen Gesundheitswesens können die Variante nur stoppen, wenn sie sie sehen können. Dr. Grubaugh und andere Wissenschaftler erstellen benutzerdefinierte Tests für B.1.1.7. die PCR verwenden, eine schnelle und kostengünstige Technologie, mit der auf jede Variante des Coronavirus getestet werden kann.

Dr. Grubaugh sagte jedoch, dass es weitaus besser wäre, wenn die Forscher nicht lange nach der Ankunft einer gefährlichen neuen Variante in den USA um diese Tests kämpfen müssten. “Es ist insgesamt nur ein Pflaster für unseren Mangel an genomischer Überwachung”, sagte er.

Ein landesweites Überwachungsprogramm Die Entwicklung des Coronavirus zu verfolgen, würde es Forschern nicht nur ermöglichen, die Ausbreitung von B.1.1.7. zu beobachten, sondern auch andere, möglicherweise noch gefährlichere neue Mutationen, die in seiner Linie auftreten. Neue Varianten könnten menschliche Zellen noch effizienter infizieren oder, schlimmer noch, Impfstoffen oder antiviralen Medikamenten ausweichen.

“Nur weil wir es nicht eingerichtet haben, heißt das nicht, dass wir es nicht tun können”, sagte Dr. Hodcroft. “Wir müssen nur wirklich entscheiden, dass dies etwas ist, was wir wollen.”

Sie betonte, dass der einzige Weg, diese gefährlichen neuen Fehler zu finden, darin bestehe, ständig nach ihnen zu suchen. “Sie tauchen nicht am ersten Tag auf und stellen sich vor und sagen: ‘Hey, schau mir zu!'”, Sagte sie. „Wir brauchen eine Weile, um das herauszufinden. Und wir brauchen länger, wenn wir nicht suchen. “

Categories
World News

UK Lockdown: Colleges, Schools to Shut as Coronavirus Variant Rages

UK Lockdown: Schools, Colleges to Close as Coronavirus Variant Rages

LONDON – Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed a tough new national lockdown on Monday as the UK’s desperate race to vaccinate its population could be overtaken by a fast-spreading variant of the coronavirus that was on track to overwhelm the country’s beleaguered hospitals .

After several days of alarmingly high and escalating case numbers, Mr Johnson ordered schools and colleges in England to close their doors and switch to distance learning. He appealed to the British to stay home for all but a few necessary purposes, including essential work and the purchase of food and medicine.

The nationwide restrictions, officials warned, will remain in place until at least mid-February.

The decision was a new setback for Mr Johnson as the arrival of two vaccines after nine months and severe criticism of his handling of the pandemic appeared to offer a way out of the crisis.

On the day the first doses of a vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University were given, the good news was drowned out by the reintroduction of the kind of sweeping restrictions put in place last spring when the pandemic first threatened to spiral out of control.

In the past few weeks, the new, highly transmissible variant of the virus has caught on in London and the south-east of England, causing the number of cases to rise alarmingly to nearly 60,000 a day and putting hospitals under acute pressure.

On Sunday, Mr Johnson admitted that current controls of daily living were inadequate. However, the first announcement of a full lockdown came not from England but from Scotland, where the first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has consistently moved further and faster to tame the pandemic.

In Edinburgh, Ms Sturgeon said that mainland Scotland people must be required to stay at home and work from wherever possible, while places of worship would be closed and schools were largely operated by distance learning.

Mr Johnson followed on Monday evening to announce the lockdown in England that many predicted.

“It is clear that we must do more together to get this new variant under control while our vaccines are rolled out,” Johnson said in a televised address.

While the coming weeks may be some of the toughest, he believed Britain “is entering the final phase of the struggle because with every push that goes into our arms we tilt the odds against Covid and in favor of the British people. ”

The people of England have been encouraged to comply with the new rules immediately, although some of the new restrictions won’t take effect until Wednesday morning and a vote in Parliament will likely take place, specifically recalled on the same day.

Ministers had celebrated the deployment of the AstraZeneca vaccine, which is not only cheaper than Pfizer-BioNTech’s but also much easier to store. They said it could help turn the tide in Britain’s fight against the virus.

However, the UK is in a race to roll out its mass vaccination program before its overloaded health service is overwhelmed by the new variant. Covid-free treatment is already being postponed again, and pictures of ambulances piling up in some hospitals’ parking lots last week highlighted the challenge facing the country’s tired health workers.

Updated

Jan. 6, 2021, 3:48 p.m. ET

The government has raised its Covid warning for the first time and warns of a “material risk that health services will be overwhelmed”. There were more than 26,000 Covid-19 patients in hospitals as of Monday, up 30 percent from the previous week, Johnson’s office said. And cases are increasing rapidly across the country, it said.

Mr Johnson has set an ambitious goal for the country’s vaccine campaign: to have a first dose of the vaccine to the most vulnerable populations by mid-February. If the government does this, the restrictions could be lifted.

Most Britons are already exposed to severe restrictions in everyday life. Non-essential shops, pubs and restaurants are already closed in much of England, where those who live by the strictest rules in the areas are not allowed to mix between households.

Now all parts of England will be under these curbs and schools will be closed to most students.

However, some restrictions will be a little less onerous than those imposed last March when the virus marched relentlessly across Europe and the country was first put into lockdown.

This time around, people in England are still allowed to meet someone else to exercise together outside, and the places of worship remain open, as are the playgrounds. Elite professional football games continue, although some games had to be canceled recently after players became infected.

For critics, developments on Monday showed Mr Johnson’s tendency to postpone decisions until the last moment, in part to balance public health issues with concerns of many of his ruling Conservative Party about the devastating economic impact.

On Sunday, after Mr Johnson used a BBC interview to warn that new restrictions were likely, opposition Labor Party leader Keir Starmer called for immediate new national restrictions.

But on Monday morning, Mr Johnson initially appeared to be resisting being forced to take a quick decision, insisting that the government still measure the impact of the toughest restrictions already in place on a hospital visit. He acknowledged that “tough” weeks were ahead and said there was “no question” that tougher measures would be announced “in due course”.

Even within his own Conservative Party, pressure mounted when a senior lawmaker and former health minister, Jeremy Hunt, wrote on Twitter that it was “time to act” and “schools, close borders and immediately ban any confusion. ”

The main lesson from dealing with the pandemic was that “Countries that act early and act decisively save lives and quickly get their economies back to normal,” Hunt said.

Medical experts said that given the rapid spread of the new variant, Mr Johnson had no choice but to take more draconian measures. Some said the prime minister was already behind the curve given the number of cases and hospital admissions skyrocketed over the past week.

“He’s running late,” said Devi Sridhar, director of the global public health program at the University of Edinburgh. “The situation is bad with the new variant. You have to manage boundaries, pause schools, and stop mixing between households. “

The government’s scientific advisory body known as SAGE recommended on December 22nd that the UK consider a national lockdown and close schools and universities. The variant is on the way to become dominant in many parts of the country.

New infections have risen to almost 60,000 per day, twice as many as a few weeks ago.

Hospital admissions in London have doubled every week since early December, wrote Christina Pagel, director of clinical operations at University College London, on Twitter. The UK already has the highest death toll in Europe, with 75,024 deaths, and medical experts are warning that it will rise again after more modest growth in the summer.

Others expressed concern about the constant changes in the message of a government that often seemed to respond to fast-moving events rather than anticipating them.

After the national lockdown last year, the government promised to do everything possible to keep schools open. However, the return of students on Monday after the winter break was confusing as some schools had to close in areas with high infections while some school principals decided to do it themselves. In some cases it was because too many employees were sick, in others it was reports that children might be more susceptible to the new variant than to the original virus.

A teachers’ union called on all elementary schools to switch to distance learning in the first two weeks of January, with the exception of classes aimed at vulnerable children and the families of key workers.

After days of chaos over school policy, Mr Johnson reluctantly and belatedly agreed to the proposal on Monday.

“Parents whose children were in school today reasonably wonder why we didn’t make that decision sooner,” he said, adding, “the answer is simply that we have done everything in our power to make schools keep open. “

Categories
Health

Extra circumstances of latest Covid variant discovered within the U.S., threatening to worsen nation’s outbreak

More cases of new Covid variant found in the U.S., threatening to worsen nation's outbreak

A man is given a COVID-19 nasal swab test at the Tom Bradley International Terminal at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) amid a coronavirus surge in southern California on December 22, 2020 in Los Angeles, California.

Mario Tama | Getty Images

Three US states have now identified cases of the new coronavirus strain in people with no travel history, a sign that the variant could already unwittingly spread among Americans.

Florida health officials announced Thursday that they had found the first case of Covid-19 in the state with the new, more contagious variant of the virus. The man, who lives in the county north of West Palm Beach, is in his twenties and has no travel history, the Florida Department of Health said in a Twitter post.

The Florida man was among the first to be diagnosed with the new variant B.1.1.7, which was first identified in the UK. California has now identified at least four cases of the new strain in San Diego County in men with no reported travel history. The cases came just days after Colorado health officials discovered the first cases in people who had not traveled.

“I’m not surprised you have a case and probably more cases in California,” said White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci told Governor Gavin Newsom on Wednesday after announcing that state health officials had found her first case. “We’ll likely see reports from other states.”

U.S. health officials have said the variant’s arrival in the nation comes as no surprise, although if it is allowed to spread uncontrollably it could make matters worse. While the evidence suggests that the new strain is easier and faster to transmit compared to previous versions of the virus, it is not believed to cause more serious diseases in infected people, and current vaccines should continue to work against it, according to the Officials from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention held a conference call Wednesday.

Nevertheless, the new variant threatens to worsen the situation if more people are hospitalized due to its spread, according to experts. December was the deadliest month of the pandemic in the U.S. as hospitals reached capacity and the much-anticipated vaccine rollout ended slower than expected.

According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the nation reported more than 6.3 million new infections and more than 77,500 deaths in December. On the way into 2021, a little more than 125,000 people with Covid-19 are currently being hospitalized – more than twice as high as in mid-April last year. This comes from data from the COVID Tracking Project, which is carried out by journalists at The Atlantic.

Another cause for concern: The first cases of the new variant were found in the most populous states in the country amid a busy vacation travel season, Mercedes Carnethon, vice chairman of preventive medicine at Northwestern University, told MSNBC on Friday.

TSA officials said they screened 1.28 million passengers at US airports on the Sunday after Christmas. This is the highest number since Covid stopped traveling in mid-March.

“We can be sure that from the photos we all saw at TSA checkpoints on vacation, we have traveled millions of people between these destinations,” Carnethon said. “We can be pretty sure that this variant is everywhere now.”

The latest findings from Imperial College London also show that the new variant appears to affect people under the age of 20 more than older adults. Part of that shift, however, could be because schools stayed open during a period of lockdown orders, the study says.

The age gap could be an issue as younger people are more likely to be key workers in the community than the first to be vaccinated, Carnethon said.

“I think the priority, I think, needs to be to reinforce the basic messages we know about how to stop community transmission,” Carnethon said. “As we know, our vaccination strategy begins with strengthening our infrastructure for healthcare workers. However, this is not necessarily the population that is causing the coronavirus to spread to the community.”

Categories
Health

What Scientists Know About How the Coronavirus Variant Spreads

What Scientists Know About How the Coronavirus Variant Spreads

A more contagious form of the coronavirus has entered the United States.

In the UK, where it was first identified, the new variant became the predominant form of the coronavirus in just three months, accelerating that nation’s rise and filling its hospitals. It could do the same thing in the United States, exacerbating an unstoppable surge in deaths and overwhelming the already strained health system, experts warned.

One variant that is spreading more easily also means that people must follow religious precautions such as social distancing, mask-wearing, hand hygiene, and improved ventilation – undesirable news for many Americans who are already scrubbing against restrictions.

“The bottom line is that everything we do to reduce transmission is reducing transmission of all variants, including this one,” said Angela Rasmussen, a Georgetown University virologist. But “it may mean that the more targeted measures that aren’t like a full lockdown aren’t as effective.”

What does it mean for this variant to be transferable? What makes this variant more contagious than previous iterations of the virus? And why should we worry about a variant that spreads more easily but doesn’t seem to make anyone sick?

We asked experts to weigh the evolving research on this new version of the coronavirus.

Many variants of the coronavirus have emerged since the beginning of the pandemic. However, all evidence so far suggests that the new mutant, named B.1.1.7, is more transmissible than previous forms. It first appeared in the UK in September, but already accounts for more than 60 percent of new cases in London and neighboring areas.

The new variant appears to infect more people than previous versions of the coronavirus, even if the environments are the same. It is not clear what gives the variant this advantage, although there is evidence that it could infect cells more efficiently.

It’s also difficult to say exactly how much more transmissible the new variant can be, as scientists haven’t yet done the necessary laboratory experiments. Most of the conclusions were drawn from epidemiological observation and “there are so many possible biases in all the data available,” warned Muge Cevik, an infectious disease expert at the University of St Andrews in Scotland and a scientific advisor to the UK government.

Scientists initially estimated that the new variant was 70 percent more transferable, but a recent model study put that number at 56 percent. Once the researchers sift through all of the data, the variant may only be 10 to 20 percent more transmissible, said Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle.

Still, said Dr. Bedford, it is likely to catch on quickly and become the predominant form in the United States by March. Scientists like Dr. Bedford closely follows all known variants to determine any further changes that could change their behavior.

The new mutant virus can spread more easily, but in every other way it seems little different from its predecessors.

At least so far, the variant does not seem to make people sick or lead to more deaths. Still, there is cause for concern: a more transmissible variant increases the death toll just because it spreads faster and infects more people.

“With that in mind, it’s just a numbers game,” said Dr. Rasmussen. The effect is amplified “in countries like the US and UK where the health system is really at its breaking point”.

The routes of transmission – through large and small droplets and tiny aerosolized particles floating in crowded interiors – have not changed. This means that masks, limiting time with others, and improving indoor ventilation will all help contain the spread of the variant, as it does with other variants of the virus.

Updated

Apr. 31, 2020, 10:44 am ET

“By minimizing exposure to viruses, you reduce the risk of infection and overall transmission,” said Dr. Rasmussen.

Some preliminary evidence from the UK suggests that people infected with the new variant tend to have greater amounts of the virus in their nose and throat than people infected with previous versions.

“We’re talking in the 10-fold to 10,000-fold range,” said Michael Kidd, clinical virologist for Public Health England and clinical advisor to the UK government who has investigated the phenomenon.

There are other explanations for the finding: Dr. Kidd and his colleagues did not have access to information about when, for example, people were tested for their disease, which could affect what is known as their viral load.

However, the finding offers a possible explanation for why the new variant is spreading more easily. The more viruses infected people have in their noses and throats, the more they are expelled into the air and onto surfaces when they breathe, speak, sing, cough or sneeze.

As a result, situations where people are exposed to the virus are more likely to develop new infections. Some new data suggests that people infected with the new variant spread the virus to more of their contacts.

For previous versions of the virus, contact tracing suggested that about 10 percent of those who are in close contact with an infected person – for at least 15 minutes within six feet – inhaled enough virus to become infected.

“With the variant we could expect 15 percent of it,” said Dr. Bedford. “Right now, risky activities are getting riskier.”

The variant has 23 mutations compared to the version that broke out a year ago in Wuhan, China. But 17 of those mutations appeared suddenly after the virus deviated from its youngest ancestor.

Every infected person is a melting pot that gives the virus the opportunity to mutate as it reproduces. With more than 83 million people infected worldwide, the coronavirus is accumulating mutations faster than scientists expected at the start of the pandemic.

The vast majority of mutations offer no benefit to the virus and die out. However, mutations that improve the fitness or transmissibility of the virus have a greater chance of prevailing.

At least one of the 17 new mutations in the variant contributes to their greater contagion. The mechanism is not yet known. Some data suggest that the new variant may bind more tightly to a protein on the surface of human cells and infect them more easily.

It is possible for the variant to bloom in the nose and throat of an infected person, but not, for example, in the lungs. This may explain why patients are more likely to spread it but not develop more serious diseases than from previous versions of the virus. Some influenza viruses behave similarly, experts say.

“We must view this evidence as preliminary and accumulative,” said Dr. Cevik on the growing data on the new variant.

However, the studies to date indicate that the transmission of the variant must urgently be restricted. She added: “Overall, we need to be much more careful and investigate the gaps in our mitigation efforts.”

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Discovery of Virus Variant in Colorado and California Alarms Scientists

Discovery of Virus Variant in Colorado and California Alarms Scientists

“I would expect a similar trend,” said Trevor Bedford, evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle. The variant is currently likely to make up less than 1 percent of cases, but it could make up the majority of cases by March.

The variant has 23 mutations compared to the original virus that was discovered in Wuhan, China. Seventeen mutations have occurred since the virus strayed from its youngest ancestor, said Muge Cevik, an infectious disease expert at the University of St Andrews in Scotland and a scientific advisor to the UK government.

The speed at which the virus took on so many changes worries scientists who expected the coronavirus to evolve much more slowly.

Current vaccine candidates should continue to protect people from disease, several experts said. However, the appearance of the new variant, which contains at least one mutation that weakens the body’s immune protection, makes it likely that vaccines will need regular adjustments, much like they do in order to remain effective against the influenza virus.

Scientists still aren’t sure how much more easily the mutant spreads. Initial estimates were around 70 percent higher transferability, but since then the number has been revised to 56 percent and could drop even further, said Dr. Cevik.

But with each new person it infects, the coronavirus also has more chances of mutating and therefore more chances of showing up with mutations that give it an advantage – by making it more transmissible or less susceptible to the immune system, for example.

“When you’ve had enough of huge amounts of viral replications around the world, you’re going to get lots of different varieties,” said Dr. Dan Barouch, a virologist at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston.

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Extra Contagious Coronavirus Variant Present in Colorado

More Contagious Coronavirus Variant Found in Colorado

A case of the contagious variant of coronavirus, first discovered in the UK, was found in Colorado on Tuesday, Governor Jared Polis said. It is the first confirmed case of the variant in the United States.

The variant was discovered in a man in his twenties with no travel history, Mr Polis said. The man was isolated in Elbert County, southeast of Denver, he said.

“We don’t know much about this new variant of Covid-19, but scientists in the UK are warning the world that it is far more contagious,” Polis said in a statement. “The health and safety of Coloradans is our top priority and we will monitor this case as well as any Covid-19 indicators very closely.”

Scientists are concerned about these variants, but not surprised by them. It is normal for viruses to mutate, and most of the mutations in the coronavirus have been shown to be minor.

“This shouldn’t be a cause for panic,” said William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard University. “But it is an occasion to redouble our efforts to prevent the virus from getting a chance to spread.”

Earlier this month, British researchers observed that the variant was becoming more common in parts of the UK. Your subsequent research suggests that the variant known as B.1.1.7 spreads more easily than others in circulation.

It is not yet clear why B.1.1.7 transmits more easily. The line has accumulated 23 mutations since splitting off from other coronaviruses. The researchers are studying some of the mutations to see if the viruses can enter cells more easily or make more copies of themselves.

There is no evidence that an infection with B.1.1.7 is more likely to lead to a severe case of Covid-19 or increase the risk of death. However, the speed at which the variant appears to be spreading could lead to more infections – and therefore more hospitalizations.

The UK government reacted to the emergence of B.1.1.7 by restricting the movement of people and the size of the gatherings. In a preliminary study, UK researchers found that schools may need to be closed and vaccination programs aggressively accelerated to prevent a huge surge in cases.

Countries around the world have introduced stricter protocols for travelers entering from the UK. A new rule in the United States requiring incoming travelers from the UK – including American citizens – to provide proof of a negative coronavirus test upon entry went into effect on Monday.

It is not clear where B.1.1.7 originated. The UK has the largest system for sequencing the coronavirus genomes, which is why the variant may have been found there first. Cases of the variant have also been identified in France, Spain and other European countries, as well as Lebanon and Singapore. Health officials in Ontario, Canada, said Saturday that they had identified two cases of the variant in a couple with no known travel history or exposure.

With the United States sequencing far fewer genomes than the UK, American scientists suspected that the variant may already have been undetected in the country. It seems they were right.

The fact that the Colorado man identified on Tuesday had no travel history raises the worrying possibility that B.1.1.7 is already well established in his community – and perhaps elsewhere as well. “It didn’t teleport across the Atlantic,” said Dr. Hanage.

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Coronavirus Variant Is Certainly Extra Transmissible, New Research Suggests

Coronavirus Variant Is Indeed More Transmissible, New Study Suggests

A team of British scientists published a worrying study on Wednesday of the new variant of coronavirus sweeping the UK. They warned that the variant was so contagious that new control measures, including closing schools and universities, may be required. Even that might not be enough, they said, saying, “It may be necessary to speed up the introduction of vaccines significantly.”

Nicholas Davies, lead author of the study, said the model should also serve as a warning to other countries where the variant may have already spread.

“The preliminary results are pretty convincing that faster vaccination is going to be a really important matter for any country dealing with this or similar variants,” said Dr. Davies, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, in an interview.

The study, published by the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, has not yet been reviewed by a scientific journal. The study compares a number of models as predictors of data on infection, hospital stays, and other variables. Other researchers are testing the variant in laboratory experiments to see if it is biologically different.

The study found no evidence that the variant was more deadly than others. However, the researchers estimated that it was 56 percent more contagious. On Monday the British government released an initial estimate of 70 percent.

Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health who was not involved in the study, said it provided a compelling explanation of the variant’s past and possible future.

“The overall message is solid and in line with what we’ve seen from other sources of information,” he said in an interview. “Is that important? Yes. Is there any evidence of increased transmission? Yes. Will that have an impact in the next few months? Yes. These are all pretty solid. “

The variant, which British researchers became aware of earlier this month, has spread rapidly in London and eastern England. It contains 23 mutations, some of which can be more contagious.

Dr. Davies and colleagues found more evidence that the variant actually spreads faster than others. For example, they ruled out the possibility that it was becoming more common in some regions of the UK because people in those places were more moving and more likely to come into contact with one another. Data recorded by Google showing the movements of individual cell phone users over time showed no such difference.

The researchers built various mathematical models and tested each one as an explanation for the spread of the variant. They analyzed which model of spread best predicted the number of actually confirmed new cases, as well as hospitalizations and deaths.

The researchers concluded that the variant can, on average, spread to more people than other variants. Dr. Davies warned that their estimate of 56 percent more contagious is still crude as they are still collecting data on the recent spread of the variant. “I think if we get more of that corner we will be safer,” he said.

Despite the data he and his colleagues have so far, he is confident that the new variant must be taken very seriously. “I think that given all the evidence, it is a strong case,” he said.

Updated

Apr. 27, 2020, 6:19 am ET

Dr. Davies and his colleagues then predicted what the new variant would do over the next six months and built models that took different constraints into account. Without a broader roll-out of vaccines, they warned, “Cases, hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths in 2021 could exceed those in 2020.”

Closing schools through February could buy the UK some time, the researchers noted, but lifting those additional restrictions would then result in a significant recovery in cases.

Dr. Davies and his colleagues also considered the protection vaccines offer. Vaccine experts are confident that coronavirus vaccines can block the new variant, although this needs to be confirmed by laboratory experiments that are currently being carried out.

To study the effects of the current vaccination rate, the researchers created a model that vaccinated 200,000 people each week. This pace was too slow to have much of an impact on the outbreak. “That kind of pace wouldn’t really help loosen control measures,” said Dr. Davies.

When they increased the vaccinations to 2 million a week, they saw a decrease in the peak load for intensive care units. Whether the UK can increase vaccinations by a factor of 10 is unknown.

As of Tuesday, the variant had not been identified in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “Given the low proportion of US infections sequenced, the variant could already be in the US without being detected,” they warned.

The United States is vaccinating its citizens more slowly than expected. This could potentially become a problem if the variant spreads in the UK to the US.

“You need to be able to remove any obstacles to transmission as quickly as possible,” said Dr. Hanage.

Dr. Davies warned that the model he and his colleagues analyzed, like any model, was based on a number of assumptions, some of which could prove to be incorrect. For example, the rate at which infected people die from Covid-19 may continue to decline as doctors improve care for hospital patients. There are still uncertainties as to whether and by how much the new variant is more contagious in children.

They also didn’t consider other tools to stop the spread of the variant, such as an aggressive program to test people and isolate those infected. “That’s a limitation of the paper,” said Dr. Davies. Researchers are now starting to analyze new possibilities like this.

Nevertheless, Dr. Davies and his colleagues in the conclusion of their study: “There is an urgent need to examine which new approaches may be necessary in order to sufficiently reduce the ongoing transmission of SARS-CoV-2.”

Commenting on the new estimates, Alessandro Vespignani, director of the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University in Boston, who was not involved in the study, said: “Unfortunately, this is another turn in the plot.”

“While we were all excited about the vaccine,” he added, “there is a potential for a change in the epidemiological context that will make our next few months much more complex and dangerous to navigate.” Evidence is mounting that the variant is more transmissible, and this implies that even greater efforts are likely to be needed to keep its spread under control. “

Dr. Hanage warned that the model had some flaws. The researchers assumed that anyone under the age of 20 had a 50 percent chance of spreading the disease. Although this might be true for younger children, Dr. Hanage, it’s not for teenagers. “That’s the weakest part of their model,” he said.

Nevertheless, the study offers an important insight into the possible future of the country. “It’s not a forecast, it’s not a prediction, it doesn’t mean this is going to happen,” he said. “They say that if you don’t take it seriously, it can happen very easily.”

Benjamin Mueller contributed to the reporting.

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