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Shares prepared to shut out highly effective 2020 as dangers loom in January

Traders work on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

NYSE

At the end of trading next Thursday, the bull market will be ready to run through 2021, but likely at a slower pace.

January is the month Wall Street tradition says sets the tone for the year – “this is January, this is the year,” as the saying goes. This January could be challenging as the spreading pandemic slows the economy and the all-important Georgia Senate runoff takes place on January 5th.

Joseph Biden is sworn in as president on January 20th.

“It’s a year-end autopilot market,” said Sam Stovall, CFRA chief investment strategist. Three out of four years there will be a year-end Santa rally in the market, but Stovall is also waiting to start trading in the first five days of January for signs of how the market might trade in 2021.

If the market is higher in the first five days, history shows the S&P 500 is up 82% for the full year, with an average gain of 12.5%.

“There are things that we might be worried about in January. If it were real worries, the market would already react or already step on water,” said Stovall. “What scares me is that the market is building itself. It’s a correction in the search for a catalyst and we don’t yet know what the catalyst is.”

Some strategists expect a pullback earlier in the year, but the consensus is that the market will end higher in 2021. The average expectation for the S&P 500 by the end of 2021 is 4,056, according to a CNBC poll of strategists.

Stovall said the market has gotten expensive and there are signs of foam. The 12 month value for money for S&P 500 companies is 41% premium versus the average multiple of 16.7 dating back to 2000.

“I don’t really believe that the first few days of January should set the direction for the market for the year’s balance sheet,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist, State Street Global Advisors. “If indeed [stocks] Doing a rally is more of a sign of strength. But if they hiccup I wouldn’t throw in the towel. “

The outcome of the Georgia races is a wild card for stocks and regardless of the outcome, it could trigger a market reaction. Should there be a surprise and the Democrats win both seats, the Senate would be split evenly between Republicans and Democrats. This would mean the elected Vice President Kamala Harris cast the votes.

Some strategists say the market could sell out if the Democrats win, as investors fear the party would have the votes to pass the Biden-favored tax hikes. On the flip side, a GOP win could spark a relief rally.

But Stovall said the market could rebound towards a Democratic victory if investors considered the prospect of a bigger infrastructure and stimulus package, favored by the Democrats.

Arone said uncertainty over the current $ 900 billion stimulus package approved by Congress last week could be cause for concern if President Donald Trump decides to veto or not sign the bill.

The president criticized the package, saying individuals should be given more than the $ 600 that would go to many adults and children as part of the relief.

The law extends unemployment benefits to millions of Americans, and those benefits will expire on December 31st unless signed up.

“We face deadlines rather than just being a political matter,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “There are actual deadlines for services that expire. Because of the deadlines, the market assumes that they will be exceeded.”

But the concern will hang over the market until it is resolved.

Quiet trading is expected in the coming four-day holiday week. There are few economic reports; Jobless claims on Thursday are being closely monitored. The following week, the December jobs report is expected to show a weaker labor market, with some estimates suggesting only about 100,000 jobs or fewer added.

9 month old bull

The S&P 500 starts the final week of the year up around 15% for 2020, but from the March low, the index has risen around 65%. The bull market turned nine months old this past week.

According to CFRA’s Stovall, that nine-month gain is more than double the average nine-month gain of 32.2% for all bull markets since WWII. Over the remainder of the bull markets, their average growth was only 20.3%, showing a slowdown in the profit rate.

“After those typical jackrabbit starts, the bull market advance rates typically slowed and saw lower average annual rates for the remaining bull market runs,” noted Stovall. Based on previous bull markets, he said returns could slow to around half of their current profit for the remainder of the bull run.

Calendar for the week ahead

Tuesday

9:00 am S&P / Case-Shiller real estate prices

Wednesday

8:30 a.m. Advanced Leading Indicators

9:45 am Chicago PMI

10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

Thursday

8:30 a.m. unemployment claims

Friday

New Year

Markets closed

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Business

Shares making the most important strikes after the bell: Roku, Amgen & extra

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Check out the companies making headlines after Wednesday’s bell:

Herman Miller – The office furniture company’s shares rose 0.8% on a better-than-expected result. Herman Miller reported earnings per share of 89 cents, beating a FactSet estimate of 56 cents per share. The company’s sales also increased 7% over the previous year.

Roku-Roku shares rose more than 3% after the company announced it would be transporting HBO Max on its platform.

Amgen – Amgen rose 0.3% after the biotech company increased its quarterly dividend from $ 1.60 per share to $ 1.76 per share.

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Business

Stay Market Updates: Shares Rise as Brexit Talks Are Prolonged

Here’s what you need to know:

Credit…Brendan Mcdermid/Reuters

Exxon Mobil announced on Monday that it would reduce methane and other greenhouse gas emissions from its exploration and production operations over the next four years.

The company said it would reduce emissions by 15 to 20 percent by 2025 compared with 2016 levels.

More significantly, the company said it would eliminate “routine” flaring by 2030 in an effort to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions generated when companies burn unwanted natural gas that is released during oil production.

The company stopped well short of the kind of targets set by BP and other European oil companies that have pledged to reduce emissions by much more and have said they would gradually move away from oil and gas as they invest more in renewable energy.

“We respect and support society’s ambition to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, and continue to advocate for policies that promote cost-effective, market-based solutions to address the risks of climate change,” Exxon’s chief executive, Darren Woods, said in a statement.

Exxon said that “meaningful decreases” in emissions of greenhouse gasses “will require changes in society’s energy choices coupled with the development and deployment of affordable lower-emission technologies.”

Rory Gamble, the president of the United Automobile Workers union, which agreed on changes meant to root out corruption at the union.Credit…Rebecca Cook/Reuters

The Justice Department and the United Automobile Workers union have reached a tentative agreement on changes meant to root out corruption at the union without putting it under government control.

The United States attorney for the eastern district of Michigan, Matthew J. Schneider, and the president of the union, Rory Gamble, are scheduled to announce details of the agreement Monday afternoon.

Mr. Schneider has been investigating corruption at the U.A.W. for several years and has secured guilty pleas by more than a dozen people, including two former union presidents.

Gary Jones, who became U.A.W. president in 2018 and resigned while under investigation a year later, in June plead guilty to tax fraud and improperly using union funds. He was accused of using more than $1 million in union funds for luxury travel and personal purchases.

Dennis Williams, who served as president from 2014 to 2018, pleaded guilty in September to conspiring with other union officials to embezzle union funds. He and Mr. Jones are awaiting sentencing.

Others who have pleaded guilty include three former executives of Fiat Chrysler and a senior union official, Joe Ashton, who once held a seat on the board of General Motors. In November, Mr. Ashton was sentenced to 30 months in prison.

Rihanna at a show for the Savage x Fenty collection in 2018.Credit…Nina Westervelt for The New York Times

Savage x Fenty, the lingerie company that the pop singer Rihanna helped found, has hired Goldman Sachs to raise $100 million in financing, sources with direct knowledge of the deal told the DealBook newsletter.

The company wants the money for new initiatives that may include new lines like athletic wear and expanding in Europe.

The high-flying lingerie brand generates about $150 million in revenue, but is not yet profitable, said the sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the information was confidential.

The valuation it is seeking in the funding round could not be determined, A representative for Goldman Sachs declined to comment, while Savage x Fenty did not respond to requests for comment.

Rihanna’s business ventures have challenged the traditional playbook of fashion and beauty brands, taking an inclusive approach in an industry for which exclusivity is the norm. Her Fenty Beauty line, which she produces with a subsidiary of LVMH, introduced with 40 shades of foundation for a wide range of skin tones. The makeup brand packed the shelves of LVMH-backed Sephora, and paved the way for a Rihanna fashion line with the French luxury empire.

Rihanna started Savage x Fenty in 2018, aiming it at a broad range of body types. It is partly owned by Techstyle Fashion Group, the venture-backed company behind the actress Kate Hudson’s athleisure line Fabletics. Rihanna frequently promotes the brand on Instagram, where she has 87.5 million followers. Earlier this year, Savage x Fenty was accused of deceptive marketing, which it denies.

Savage x Fenty’s launch came as Victoria’s Secret stumbled. The brand that once dominated the lingerie industry had begun to turn off its customers with garments that emphasized sex appeal over comfort. Last year, Victoria’s Secret canceled its fashion show amid dwindling viewership. In what seemed a direct shot at its rival, Savage x Fenty held a body-positive extravaganza at the Barclays Center last year, returning again this year with “a forceful display of inclusivity” that streamed on Amazon.

Britain’s most modern operating power plant, known as Sizewell B, near Sizewell, a fishing village about 100 miles northeast of London. Credit…Dylan Martinez/Reuters

The British government said on Monday that it would enter formal negotiations with EDF, the French utility, to build a new nuclear power station on the east coast of England.

The plant, known as Sizewell C, would have an estimated price tag is 20 billion pounds, or about $27 billion. Negotiations with EDF, which owns most of the British nuclear power system, would cover financing and other arrangements.

In moving ahead with talks, the government is acknowledging that although Britain is investing heavily in clean energy sources like offshore wind, there may also be a need to construct new nuclear power plants to provide stable sources of power to achieve its ambitious climate goals of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, which is likely to require electrifying large parts of the economy.

Nuclear attracts criticism as expensive compared to renewables and for the risk of accidents and long-term toxic waste problems, but it has the advantage of providing very large and steady amounts of low carbon power that would be available when the wind stops. The Sizewell C plant could supply power for six million homes.

Finding a workable financing solution will be crucial. The government said it would “explore a range of financing options” for the plant, including a proposal that might have consumers pay costs of the plant in advance of its operation through charges on their bills, as well as the use of public money to finance construction. A plan by Hitachi, the Japanese company, to build a nuclear installation in Wales collapsed in 2019, in part over financing issues.

The plant would be near Britain’s most modern operating power plant, known as Sizewell B, in the vicinity of Sizewell, a fishing village about 100 miles northeast of London. It is likely to draw protests from local environmentalists who worry that the plant will threaten important wildlife habitat.

The plant would be similar to another installation that EDF and a Chinese partner are building at Hinkley Point in southwest England. The hope is that experience gained at Hinkley Point will translate into lower costs for Sizewell.

Senator Angus King wrote to the heads of several streaming services on Monday, asking them to consider lifting subscription fees.Credit…Gabriella Demczuk for The New York Times

What if Netflix and the other major streaming services were available free during the holiday season? Wouldn’t that keep people home in the coming weeks, reducing the further spread of the coronavirus?

Senator Angus King, independent of Maine, made that proposal in a letter on Monday to the heads of Netflix, Amazon, Disney, WarnerMedia and Apple.

“Americans are faced with even further social isolation — and increased free time — during the holidays,” Mr. King wrote in the letter. “This is a risk; it could also be an opportunity for creative, socially responsible thinking.”

The streaming services did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

In the past week, there has been an average of more than 200,000 new coronavirus cases a day in the United States, up nearly 30 percent from the average two weeks ago. And while the first health workers may start receiving shots of a new vaccine on Monday, the country faces a devastating winter if people become less vigilant, health officials say.

In an interview, Mr. King said that many people had “pandemic fatigue,” and his proposal was intended to encourage a safe activity, especially for those who don’t have the means to subscribe to streaming services.

“It’s a way to basically lift people’s spirits a bit and mitigate the heartbreak of not being able to be with family and friends at an important holiday,” he said.

Peter Vlitas, a travel industry executive, used the CommonPass app on a United Airlines flight to Newark from London in October.Credit…The Commons Project Foundation

In the coming weeks, major airlines including United, JetBlue and Lufthansa plan to introduce a health passport app, called CommonPass, that aims to verify passengers’ coronavirus test results — and perhaps soon, vaccinations.

CommonPass notifies users of local travel rules — like having to provide proof of a negative virus test — and then aims to check that they have met them. The app will then issue confirmation codes, enabling passengers to board certain international flights, Natasha Singer reports in The New York Times.

“This is likely to be a new normal need that we’re going to have to deal with to control and contain this pandemic,” said Dr. Brad Perkins, the chief medical officer at the Commons Project Foundation, a nonprofit organization in Geneva that developed CommonPass.

Electronic vaccination credentials could have a profound effect on efforts to control the virus and restore the economy. They could prompt more employers and college campuses to reopen. And developers say they may also give some consumers peace of mind by creating an easy way for movie theaters, cruise ships and sports arenas to admit only those with documented virus vaccinations.

But the digital passes also raise the specter of a society split into health pass haves and have-nots, particularly if venues begin requiring the apps as entry tickets. The apps could make it difficult for people with limited access to vaccines or online verification tools to enter workplaces or visit popular destinations. Civil liberties experts also warn that the technology could create an invasive system of social control, akin to the heightened surveillance that China adopted during the pandemic — only instead of federal or state governments, private actors like employers and restaurants would determine who can and cannot access services.

In October, United tested CommonPass on a flight to Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey from Heathrow Airport in London. United and four other airlines plan to start using it soon on some international flights.

Internet users worldwide received a jarring reminder on Monday about just how reliant they were on Google, when the Silicon Valley giant suffered a major outage for about an hour, sending many of its most popular services offline.

At a time when more people than ever are working from home because of the pandemic, Google services including Calendar, Gmail, Hangouts, Maps, Meet and YouTube all crashed, halting productivity and sending angry users to Twitter to vent about the loss of services. Students struggled to sign into virtual classrooms.

As users scrambled to figure out what was going on, Google disclosed the outages on a status dashboard that shares information about its various services. Downdetector, a website for tracking internet outages, also showed that Google was offline. Google’s search engine continued to work for some people.

But about an hour after the outages began, the services started working again.

Google initially provided limited information about what occurred, and it was not immediately clear how many users were affected by the outage. Several of Google’s products have more than a billion global users, including Android, Chrome, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Play, Search and YouTube.

Later, the company attributed the problem to an “authentication system outage” that lasted for approximately 45 minutes starting at 7:32 a.m. Eastern time.

“All services are now restored,” Google said in a statement. “We apologize to everyone affected, and we will conduct a thorough follow up review to ensure this problem cannot recur in the future.”

Today, at 3.47AM PT Google experienced an authentication system outage for approximately 45 minutes due to an internal storage quota issue. This was resolved at 4:32AM PT, and all services are now restored.

— Google Cloud (@googlecloud) December 14, 2020

Product outages were once fairly common for growing internet companies. But as Google, Facebook and others have become larger, building complex networks of interconnected data centers around the world, the incidents have become less common. Google has privately financed undersea cables to move data between continents and improve performance in the event problems occur in a certain location.

The reliability of the systems have become increasingly important as people and businesses depend on the services, whether to search for information online, find directions, send email or get access to private documents stored on Google’s servers. Some users reported their appliances not working because they were linked to Google’s line of home products.

During lockdowns, schools have leaned on Google services to teach students forced to stay home. “At least we have an excuse for not doing our homework,” one person wrote on Twitter.

The incident is likely to provide fodder for those who say the biggest technology companies have grown too powerful and deserve more oversight. In the United States, Google and Facebook are facing antitrust lawsuits. In the European Union, new regulations will be introduced on Tuesday to limit the industry’s power.

William Dixon, a cybersecurity expert at the World Economic Forum, said the outage highlighted the fragility of the world’s digital networks.

“What you have is an increasingly smaller number of technology providers that are systemically important,” said Mr. Dixon, who used to work on cybersecurity issues for the British government. “If there is one issue, then the cascades of that are quite significant.”

Michel Barnier, the European Union’s chief negotiator on Brexit, speaking to reporters Monday morning in Brussels. Talks with Britain on a trade deal are continuing. Credit…Francois Walschaerts/Reuters

  • Stocks rose on Monday, rebounding from last week’s slump as negotiators trying to secure a Brexit trade deal and U.S. fiscal stimulus package were given a little more time to reach an agreement.

  • The S&P 500 rose about 0.6 percent in early trading, while the Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.8 percent and the FTSE 100 in Britain was flat. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 closed 0.3 percent higher and the Shanghai composite index rose 0.7 percent.

  • The British pound strengthened against other major currencies, rising 1.1 percent against the euro and 1.4 percent against the U.S. dollar after Britain and the European Union decided on Sunday to extend talks on a trade deal. Britain voted to leave the European Union in a referendum over four years ago and formally did so on Jan. 31, entering a transition period that will end in 17 days’ time.

  • Last week, the pound suffered its steepest drop in three months after signs that Britain would not reach an agreement with its largest trading partner before the end of the year, which would lead to higher tariffs as well as trade and economic disruption.

  • In the United States, Congress has given itself another week to come to an agreement on package of measures to provide some relief to unemployed Americans and hard-hit businesses. A bipartisan group of lawmakers who have been working for a month on a $908 billion proposal met through the weekend. They plan to introduce a final product on Monday.

As the European Union has become the global leader in tech regulation, Google and other American tech giants have increasingly focused on Brussels in hopes of choking off even stiffer rules before they spread.

In Europe, the tech companies are spending more than ever, hiring former government officials, well-connected law firms and consulting firms, Adam Satariano and Matina Stevis-Gridneff reported in The New York Times. They funded dozens of think tanks and trade associations, endowed academic positions at top universities across the continent and helped publish industry-friendly research by other firms.

American lawmakers and regulators, too, have become much more aggressive in curbing the power of the technology industry’s biggest companies. Last week, federal and state officials accused Facebook of illegally crushing competition. In October, the Justice Department accused Google of illegally protecting its monopoly over search.

In the first half of 2020, Google, Facebook, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft declared spending a combined 19 million euros, or about $23 million, equal to what they had declared for all of 2019 and up from €6.8 million in 2014, according to Transparency International, a group that monitors E.U. lobbying.

“The budgets are really unrivaled — we’ve never seen this kind of money being spent by companies directly,” said Margarida Silva, a researcher at Corporate Europe Observatory, a group that tracks lobbying in Brussels. The totals are probably much higher, she noted, because disclosure rules do not capture all the spending on law firms, academic partnerships and activities in individual countries.

The spending is less than in the United States, but the growing influence industry is alarming European Union officials who believe that Big Tech is contributing to a Washingtonization of Brussels, giving money and connections an upper hand over the public interest.

Janet Yellen, Mr. Biden’s pick for Treasury secretary, has long argued for emissions reduction as an economic imperative.Credit…Kriston Jae Bethel for The New York Times

WASHINGTON — Even as President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. confronts the immediate task of accelerating the pandemic recovery, he has placed the longer-running climate challenge at the center of his administration’s economic priorities.

The pandemic recovery, too, will have climate-minded undertones, The New York Times’s Jim Tankersley and Lisa Friedman report.

Three of Mr. Biden’s picks for top roles — Janet L. Yellen as Treasury secretary, Brian Deese for National Economic Council director, and Neera Tanden, the nominee to head the White House Office of Management and Budget — are preparing to weave efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and accelerate clean energy production into the economic stimulus legislation that his team is planning. Climate change is also expected to play a heavy role in a broader infrastructure initiative that could be one of Mr. Biden’s best hopes for a major bipartisan bill in his first year in office.

The climate battle is also likely to influence his economic approach more broadly, with his team preparing to use the government’s vast regulatory powers to reduce emissions via wind and solar energy, electric cars and other initiatives — an approach that Mr. Biden’s team insists will create jobs.

Those close to Mr. Biden said he was purposefully putting what scientists believe is the world’s largest looming crisis at the heart of the agencies most responsible for promoting the country’s economic security.

“Historically we have looked at climate change as an environmental issue,” said Christy Goldfuss, a former head of the White House Council on Environmental Quality under President Barack Obama. What Mr. Biden has done, she said, “is center climate policy in his economic team.”

People lined to find assistance with their unemployment claims in Frankfort, Ky.Credit…Bryan Woolston/Reuters

The federal program that covers gig workers, part-time hires, seasonal workers and others who do not qualify for traditional unemployment benefits has kept millions of Americans afloat.

Established by Congress in March as part of the CARES Act, the program, known as Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, has provided over $70 billion in relief.

But in carrying out the hastily conceived program, states have overpaid hundreds of thousands of workers — often because of administrative errors. Now states are asking for that money back, Gillian Friedman reports in The New York Times.

The notices come out of the blue, with instructions to repay thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars. Those being billed, already living on the edge, are told that their benefits will be reduced to compensate for the errors — or that the state may even put a lien on their home, come after future wages or withhold tax refunds.

Many who collected payments are still out of a job, and may have little prospect of getting one. Most had no idea that they were being overpaid.

“When somebody gets a bill like this, it completely terrifies them,” said Michele Evermore, a senior policy analyst for the National Employment Law Project, a nonprofit workers’ rights group. Sometimes the letters themselves are in error — citing overpayments when benefits were correctly paid — but either way, she said, the stress “is going to cost people’s lives.”

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World News

Dow futures rise as shares try to bounce again from shedding week

Traders work on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

NYSE

US stock futures rose early Monday as markets indicated a rebound from a lost week.

Investors are weighing updates on the introduction of the Covid-19 vaccine and the coronavirus stimulus stalemate in Washington

Dow futures indicated an opening gain of more than 180 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures also traded in positive territory.

Last week, stocks saw their first week of downturn in several months as lawmakers continued a stalemate over a Covid-19 bailout package.

The S&P 500 fell nearly 1% in its first negative week in three years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.57% for its first negative week in three and the Nasdaq Composite lost nearly 0.7% for its first negative week in four.

Next week is expected to be market-moving with the launch of the Pfizer vaccine and a Federal Reserve policy meeting. Tesla is also joining the S&P 500 on Friday.

Following the Food and Drug Administration’s emergency approval for Pfizer’s vaccine, Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield signed the drug so that vaccinations could officially continue for those aged 16 and over.

The US has started shipping the cans from a Pfizer facility in Michigan to hundreds of distribution centers around the country. The FDA is expected to publish its assessment of Moderna’s vaccine this week.

The Covid-19 vaccine launches on some of the darkest days of the pandemic in the United States. More than 2,300 coronavirus-related deaths were recorded on Saturday, after over 3,300 deaths on Friday. New infections keep exploding. More than 219,000 cases were reported on Saturday.

The surge in cases coincides with months of debates in Washington over another round of Covid relief. A non-partisan group has proposed a $ 908 billion limit. Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has opposed the proposal, instead calling for an agreement that eliminates corporate liability and funding provisions from state and local governments. These two issues are major sources of disagreement between Republicans and Democrats.

“Politically, the debate continues on more tax legislation that is badly needed for much of the population, but will also create an even bigger ‘wall of money’ for consumers when the economies are fully reopened,” said Raymond James’ Tavis McCourt towards customers on Sunday.

“It is very clear that the economy is slowing as the local stalemate persists, but the impact on the stock market has so far been limited. Whether this will continue through Q1 is unclear, but we expect withdrawals to be limited unless the vaccine changes significantly. ” History, “he added.

The Fed begins its two-day meeting on Tuesday, the last central bank meeting in 2020. Economists have speculated that the Fed might make changes to its bond program. The Fed is currently buying at least $ 80 billion a month from Treasuries, and Fed officials at their last meeting discussed what they could do to change that program.

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Business

Reside Market Updates: Shares Decline Amid Covid Restrictions and Rising Instances

Here’s what you need to know:

Credit…Andrew Testa for The New York Times

Businesses in Britain and the European Union are bracing for the economic disruption of Brexit, which threatens to clog ports and disrupt trade across the English Channel on Dec. 31 if leaders do not reach a compromise to settle their future trading relationship.

But the economic breakup could have a relatively limited impact on trade with the United States, trade experts said.

Because the United States does not have a free-trade agreement with the European Union, Britain’s departure from the bloc will do little to alter its trading relationship with the United States. Following Brexit, the terms of trade between the United States and Britain will continue to be governed by the rules of the World Trade Organization, as they were before.

The direct effect on the two trade partners “should be minimal given there’s no change in tariffs,” said Christopher Rogers, a global trade and logistics analyst at Panjiva.

Still, he said, significant customs disruptions between Europe and Britain could have knock-on effects for supply chains, if, for example, it takes British businesses that are exporting to the United States longer to source components from abroad. Goods are piling up at some British ports, as trucks and rail have failed to keep up with companies trying to stockpile ahead of Brexit.

Britain’s trading terms with the United States may not get much worse, but they also appear unlikely to get better.

The two countries have been carrying out negotiations for a free-trade deal since May. But with the election of Joseph R. Biden Jr., the prospects for that agreement, which many Britons saw as a source of post-Brexit strength, have been greatly diminished.

The congressional authority that gives trade deals an easier path to approval by Congress, called trade promotion authority, is set to expire this summer, and Mr. Biden has promised not to enter into any major new trade agreements until the United States has made major investments at home.

Boeing 737 Max aircraft in a lot at Boeing Field in Seattle. The plane was grounded worldwide almost two years ago.Credit…Lindsey Wasson/Reuters

Gol Airlines, a Brazilian carrier, said it planned to start flights aboard the Boeing 737 Max on Wednesday, making it the first airline to fly passengers on the plane since it was grounded worldwide almost two years ago.

The first flights will be on domestic routes to and from Gol’s hub in São Paulo, with the company expecting all seven of the Max planes in its fleet to be updated and cleared to fly by the end of the month. A Gol spokeswoman declined to provide further details.

“Our first priority is always the safety of our customers,” Celso Ferrer, vice president of operations and a commercial pilot at Gol, said in a statement. “Over the past 20 months, we have watched the most comprehensive safety review in the history of commercial aviation unfold.”

The Max was banned worldwide in March 2019 after a total of 346 people were killed in two crashes aboard the plane. In the United States, the Federal Aviation Administration last month became the first regulator to allow the plane to fly again, after required modifications are made. The agency was recently joined by regulators in Brazil, while the European aviation authority has suggested that it plans to lift its ban within weeks. Relatives of those killed in the crashes criticized the decision to allow the plane to fly again, arguing that it remains unsafe.

The lifting of the ban allows Boeing to restart sales and deliveries in earnest after its passenger airline business was pummeled by the grounding and the pandemic. The plane maker on Tuesday reported a net decline of 61 orders last month. Boeing’s backlog of orders, most of them for the Max, stood at 4,240, down more than a thousand from the start of the year after accounting for fulfilled orders.

Still, airlines are still interested in acquiring the plane. Last week, the company announced it had agreed to sell 75 Max jets to Ryanair, the low-cost European airline. Like RyanAir, Gol is among the biggest customers for the Max. The airline’s fleet is composed of 127 Boeing planes and it has an order for 95 Max jets scheduled for delivery over a decade starting in 2022.

Brian Chesky, Airbnb’s co-founder, in 2018. It’s usually not regular people, employees or even pre-I.P.O. investors who get a windfall from initial public offerings.Credit…Eric Risberg/Associated Press

A dirty secret of initial public offerings is that even the coolest ones may make only a handful of people rich — and it may not be regular people, employees or even fancy pre-I.P.O. investors who get a windfall.

DoorDash and Airbnb are expected to have spectacular first sales on public stock exchanges this week and start trading at far higher levels than anticipated even a few weeks ago.

But buying stock in relatively young and unproven companies — which usually describes technology companies selling their stock to the public for the first time — is often a coin-toss bet. Even the professional investors who buy stock in hot companies before they go public don’t always get rich, unless they throw their money around early and get lucky. Companies you might have heard of like Uber, Lyft, Snapchat and Slack were at best meh I.P.O. investments.

Look at Airbnb. Among the investors who got a special chance to buy Airbnb stock nearly four years ago, each $10,000 of stock they bought will be worth about $11,500 if Airbnb starts selling its shares to the public for $60 each. Nice!

But if your aunt had invested $10,000 nearly four years ago in a simple fund that mirrored the ups and downs of the S&P 500 stock index, she would now have $15,600. Even nicer.

The pandemic hurt business for Uber and Lyft, but their stocks were losers before then. Uber’s stock price has bounced back and is now up 30 percent since the spring, and still anyone who bought Uber shares in its 2019 I.P.O. — and even the professional investors who bought its stock in the four years before that — would have made far more money buying an index fund. Uber employees who were hired before the I.P.O. and were paid partly in stock also would have been better off getting paid in an index fund.

People who bought Snapchat’s stock in its 2017 initial public offering had to wait more than three years to not lose money on their bet. Slack just sold itself at a share price not much higher than its first public stock sale last year.

These are cherry-picked examples. There are companies whose stock prices have soared since their I.P.O.s and made people rich — Zoom Video is a prominent example in technology. And the people who have already bet on the restaurant delivery app DoorDash stand to make a big profit when the company goes public this week.

Will Airbnb be a winning I.P.O.? It depends. It definitely will be for the venture capital firm Sequoia, which bet on Airbnb early. And it’s certainly faring better than people expected when travel froze early this year. But no one can confidently predict whether its share price will shoot to the moon like Zoom’s has since its 2019 I.P.O. or will plunge as Lyft’s did after it went public.

That’s the lesson. Cool companies don’t always make good investments. The people screaming on Robinhood about their splurge on a hot I.P.O. may not know what they’re talking about.

By: Ella Koeze·Source: Refinitiv

  • Stocks were unsteady on Tuesday, as the spread of coronavirus cases and restrictions on people’s movement and businesses outweighed optimism about the rollout of a vaccine.

  • The S&P 500 was flat by midday after recovering from an earlier dip. The Stoxx Europe 600 and Britain’s FTSE 100 also recouped small losses and were slightly higher.

  • In the United States, rising numbers of virus cases has led California to impose new stay-at-home orders in large swathes of the state. In New York, the number of people hospitalized with the coronavirus is rising and could lead to another ban on indoor dining.

  • In Europe, countries are struggling to emerge from a second wave of the pandemic. The infection rate in France is threatening plans to ease restrictions before the holidays, and in Greece, the lockdown was extended until early January.

  • But on a brighter note, Britain on Tuesday started a mass vaccination campaign, delivering the first shots of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine. “There is finally some clear light at the end of a very dark tunnel,” James Pomeroy, an economist at HSBC, wrote in a note to clients. “And that cheer should be seen in some of the economic data in the coming year too.”

  • Tesla said on Tuesday it would sell as much as $5 billion in shares, its third return to markets in 10 months, and use the money for more investments including factory construction. Tesla’s shares were down nearly 3 percent. This year, the electric carmaker’s shares have risen about 670 percent, and later this month, the company will join the S&P 500.

Google’s offices in London. Britain’s top antitrust regulator recommended a new tech watchdog.Credit…Ben Stansall/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Governments around the world have been grappling with ways to crimp the power of the biggest tech companies. In the United States, the Justice Department recently filed an antitrust case against Google. The European Union has issued antitrust violations and enacted stiffer data-protection laws. The Australian government is pushing new rules to make Google and Facebook pay for certain content.

But many question whether the tactics are adequate, particularly if a lengthy enforcement and legal process slows down action against the fast-moving and deep-pocketed companies.

On Tuesday, Britain’s top antitrust regulator recommended a new approach. The Competition and Markets Authority released recommendations for creating a new regulator called the Digital Markets Unit that will focus on the biggest technology platforms. The regulator would be able to fine companies up to 10 percent of global revenue.

The idea of creating a tech industry regulator has gained momentum among academics and policymakers around the world. The aim is to treat giants like Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft more like the biggest companies in banking and health care — with dedicated regulators that have the expertise in the subject matter to serve as a watchdog and act quickly to address wrongdoing, akin to the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Food and Drug Administration.

Britain is perhaps the furthest along. The new regulator would be responsible for enforcing a legally binding code of conduct intended to prevent the biggest companies from using their dominance to exploit consumers and business, or to box out emerging competitors. Officials said only companies of a certain size would fall under the rules, which would be tailored to specific types of businesses. Google and Facebook may face certain restrictions related to digital advertising, while Amazon would have others related to e-commerce.

To improve competition, the regulator could force companies to share certain data with rivals, and it would review acquisitions.

The proposals build on recommendations made by a British panel of experts last year and are part of a process by the government to enact regulations for the digital economy by next year. Britain is preparing to leave the European Union, which next week will release its own draft laws to increase oversight of the tech industry across the 27-nation bloc.

British authorities have raised specific concerns about the digital advertising market dominated by Google and Facebook. In July, the Competition and Markets Authority published a 437-page investigation that concluded the two companies have such scale and unmatched access to user data that “potential rivals can no longer compete on equal terms.”

Goldman Sachs has reached a deal to buy out the minority partner in its Chinese securities joint venture, which could make it the first global bank to assume full ownership of its securities business in mainland China since the Communist Party took control of foreign-owned enterprises in the country in the 1950s.

In a memo to employees on Tuesday, the Wall Street bank said it had reached a definitive agreement to buy a 49 percent stake in Goldman Sachs Gao Hua still held by its local partner, Beijing Gao Hua Securities. Goldman Sachs did not disclose a price for the transaction.

The deal follows a pledge by Chinese leaders in 2017, amid worsening trade relations with the United States, to relax or remove limits on foreign bank ownership. The move was part of an unsuccessful effort by China to enlist Wall Street in heading off President Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on Chinese goods.

Goldman Sachs could be the first to take full control of its China securities business, depending on regulatory approval and how quickly the deal is completed.

JP Morgan Chase already has full ownership of its futures business in China, but still has a joint venture for other activities on the mainland. Other investment banks, like JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, UBS and Nomura, are in various stages of raising their stakes in their Chinese securities operations.

Commercial banks, by contrast, have avoided raising their stakes in commercial banking operations in mainland China above 25 percent. Doing so would subject those operations to further global banking regulations.

Goldman Sachs had announced on March 27 that it had obtained regulatory approval to raise its stake in Goldman Sachs Gao Hua from 33 percent to 51 percent. Tuesday’s memo was reported earlier by The Wall Street Journal.

With movie theaters largely shut across the United States, traditional movie companies like Warner Bros. are being forced to evolve.Credit…Aaron P/Bauer-Griffin, via Getty

Last week, when Jason Kilar, WarnerMedia’s chief executive, announced that 17 more Warner Bros. movies would each roll out on HBO Max and in theaters simultaneously. To prevent the news of the 17-movie shift from leaking (and to make the move speedily rather than get mired in the expected blowback), WarnerMedia kept the major agencies and talent management companies in the dark until roughly 90 minutes before issuing a news release, report Brooks Barnes and Nicole Sperling.

The surprise move left agencies on a war footing. Representatives for major Warner Bros. Talk of a Warner Bros. boycott began circulating inside the Directors Guild of America. A partner at one talent agency spent part of the weekend meeting with litigators. Some people started to angrily refer to the studio as Former Bros.

The 97-year-old studio, the ancestral home of Humphrey Bogart (“Casablanca”) and Bette Davis (“Now, Voyager”), suddenly finds itself at the uncomfortable center of a Hollywood that is changing at light speed. Even before the pandemic, streaming services like Netflix, Apple TV+ and Amazon Prime Video were upending how movies get seen and their creators are compensated. Now, with theaters struggling because of the coronavirus and the public largely stuck at home, even traditional film companies are being forced to evolve.

It’s not that all actors and directors are against streaming. Plenty of big names are making movies for Netflix. But last week’s move by Warner Bros. raised fundamental financial questions. If old-line studios are no longer trying to maximize the box office for each film but instead shifting to a hybrid model where success is judged partly by ticket sales and partly by the number of streaming subscriptions sold, what does that mean for talent pay packages?

How studios compensate A-list actors, directors, writers and producers is complicated, with contracts negotiated film by film and person by person. But it boils down to two checks. One is guaranteed (a large upfront fee) and one is a gamble: a portion of ticket sales after the studio has recouped its costs.

If a film flops, the second payday never comes. If a film is a hit, as is often the case with superheroes and other fantasy stories, the “back end” pay can add up to wheelbarrows full of cash.

A garage at the Aurora office in Palo Alto, Calif.Credit…Jason Henry for The New York Times

Uber, which spent hundreds of millions of dollars on a self-driving car project that executives once believed was a key to becoming profitable, is handing the autonomous vehicle effort over to a Silicon Valley start-up, the companies said on Monday.

Uber will also invest $400 million in the start-up, called Aurora, so it is essentially paying the company to take over the autonomous car operation, which had become a financial and legal headache. Uber is likely to license whatever technology Aurora manages to create.

The deal amounts to a fire-sale end to a high-profile but star-crossed effort to replace Uber’s human drivers with machines that could drive on their own. It is also indicative of the challenges facing other autonomous vehicle projects, which have received billions in investments from Silicon Valley and automakers but have not produced the fleets of robotic vehicles some thought would be on the streets by now.

Aurora’s chief executive, Chris Urmson, said Aurora’s first product will not be a robot taxi that could help with Uber’s ride-hailing business. Instead, it will likely be a self-driving truck, which Mr. Urmson believes has a better chance of success in the near term because long-haul truck driving on highways is more predictable and does not involve passengers.

In a statement, the Uber chief executive, Dara Khosrowshahi, said he was looking forward to bringing Aurora technology to market “in the years ahead.” Uber declined to comment further on the agreement.

  • Rashida Jones, a senior vice president for news at MSNBC and NBC News, will become the first Black woman to take charge of a major television news network. Her promotion, announced by Cesar Conde, the chairman of NBCUniversal News Group, is another big shake-up in the network’s management ranks. She will succeed Phil Griffin, the MSNBC president whose left-leaning shows yielded big ratings in the Trump years and minted media brands like “The Rachel Maddow Show” and “Morning Joe,” will depart on Feb. 1 after a 12-year tenure, the network said on Monday.

  • The Japanese advertising giant Dentsu Group plans to cut roughly 6,000 jobs as it grapples with the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. In a securities filing in Tokyo on Monday, Dentsu laid out details of its restructuring strategy, which will cost 88 billion yen (about $850 million) to carry out over two years and includes trimming its 48,000-person international work force by 12.5 percent. The timeline will vary by location, the company said.

Patrick Gaspard, a former aide to President Barack Obama, U.S. ambassador to South Africa and executive director of the Democratic National Committee, has emerged as the leading candidate to be nominated as labor secretary under President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr., according to people with knowledge of the discussions.

Mr. Gaspard announced last week that he would step down as the head of the Open Society Foundations, founded by the liberal megadonor George Soros, at the end of the year, fueling speculation in Washington that he was poised to join the incoming administration. He has a background in labor organizing, including a senior leadership position for the Service Employees International Union, which he held before joining the Obama administration.

His potential nomination would give Mr. Biden, who calls himself a “union guy,” a labor secretary with union roots. He would also add to the list of Black cabinet appointees, a key goal of Mr. Biden’s transition team as it seeks to fulfill Mr. Biden’s campaign promise of diversity in the top leadership of his administration.

Born in the Democratic Republic of Congo to Haitian parents, Mr. Gaspard immigrated to the United States in early childhood, grew up in New York and attended Columbia University before leaving to work on Jesse Jackson’s 1988 presidential campaign. He worked for years in New York City politics and on Howard Dean’s 2004 Democratic presidential bid, and he was an aide to former Mayor David Dinkins. After Mr. Dinkins died last month, Mr. Gaspard wrote on Twitter, “He taught me that you don’t need to be loud to be strong.”

Mr. Gaspard worked for years as an organizer and rose through the Service Employees International Union to become its national political director before joining Mr. Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign. In the Obama White House, Mr. Gaspard served as director of political affairs, before helming the Democratic National Committee and being confirmed as Mr. Obama’s ambassador to South Africa.

Allies of Senator Bernie Sanders, independent of Vermont and Mr. Biden’s chief rival for the Democratic nomination this year, had pushed hard for Mr. Sanders to be selected as labor secretary. But Mr. Biden’s short list for the job does not appear to include Mr. Sanders.