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Infants and Toddlers Unfold Coronavirus in Properties Extra Simply Than Teenagers, Examine Finds

In most cases, the chain of transmission ended with the infected child, but in 27.3 percent of households, children passed the virus on to at least one other resident.

Updated

Aug 16, 2021, 11:26 p.m. ET

Young people were most likely to bring the virus into the home: children aged 14 to 17 made up 38 percent of all index cases. Children who were 3 or younger were the first to get the disease in only 12 percent of households – but they were most likely to spread the virus to others in their homes. The likelihood of household transmission was about 40 percent higher if the infected child was 3 years or younger than if they were between 14 and 17 years old.

The results could be due to behavioral differences between toddlers and teenagers, medical experts said.

“When we think about what the social behavior of teenagers outside the home is, they spend a lot of time together, are often confined, often touching or sharing a drink,” said Dr. Susan E. Coffin, an infectious disease specialist at Philadelphia Children’s Hospital who was not involved in the study.

These behaviors could lead teenagers to contract the virus and bring it home, she said.

On the other hand, while very young children are likely to have less social interactions outside of the home, they tend to be in close physical contact with others in their household and, in addition, frequently put their hands and other objects in their mouths, which contributes to the spread could be the virus. “Once they get it into the household, it can be easily spread,” said Dr. Coffin.

It’s also possible that the youngest children have higher levels of virus in them or have higher levels of virus shedding than teenagers, the researchers found. Some studies have shown that although young children rarely become seriously ill, they can carry similar or even higher levels of the virus than adults. Although viral load is not a perfect predictor of infectivity, the data suggest that children may be as contagious as adults.

But the dynamics of disease transmission are complex, and the exact role children play in spreading the virus remains uncertain.

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Politics

Rand Paul’s spouse purchased shares in Covid therapy maker Gilead as virus unfold

U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) listens to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, during a Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing to discuss the on-going federal response to COVID-19, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 11, 2021.

Greg Nash | Reuters

WASHINGTON — Republican Sen. Rand Paul and his wife had not bought or sold stock in an individual company in at least 10 years when Kelley Paul purchased shares of the drug company Gilead Sciences in early 2020.

The purchase came early in the novel coronavirus’ initial wave through the United States — and one day after the first U.S. clinical trial began for Gilead’s remdesivir as a treatment for Covid-19, according to records reviewed by CNBC.

That purchase and its timing made headlines Wednesday when the Kentucky senator disclosed it for the first time in a mandatory Senate filing — more than 16 months after the legal deadline for reporting it had passed.

Rand Paul has been one of the leading opponents of Covid mask mandates and other preventative measures, calling for people to “resist” them. YouTube suspended his official account Tuesday over his claims that masks don’t prevent infections. Paul called the suspension a “badge of honor.”

The purchase of up to $15,000 worth of Gilead shares was made three weeks before the World Health Organization declared Covid a pandemic. On Feb. 26, 2020, the day Kelley Paul bought the shares, there were only 14 confirmed cases of Covid in the United States.

The 2012 STOCK Act requires members of Congress to disclose the purchase and sale of individual stocks, bonds and commodity futures within 45 days of the transaction.

Other assets — such as mutual funds, EIFs and T-bills — are exempt from the 45-day requirement and need to be disclosed only once a year. The different reporting schedules prioritize the disclosure of trades that could be used to profit from nonpublic information.

Since 2012, Paul has disclosed 187 transactions involving mutual funds, EIFs, trusts and government bonds in his annual reports. But he has disclosed only one transaction in an individual stock: Gilead.

Paul’s office said he filled out a disclosure form about the Gilead purchase on time in 2020, but through an oversight it was not transmitted to the Senate records office.

It is not out of the ordinary for a U.S. senator such as Paul or his spouse to buy stock in a publicly traded company like Gilead. But for Rand and Kelley Paul, Gilead is the first and only individual stock that the lawmaker has reported he or his wife buying or selling during his 10 years in the Senate.

Paul is a member of the Senate health committee, which received a private briefing in January 2020 on the threat of the coronavirus from Trump administration officials. A Paul spokesperson said the senator did not attend any Covid committee briefings.

A prominent Washington ethics lawyer, who declined to be named because his clients are both Republican and Democratic elected officials, told CNBC, “If the [Securities and Exchange Commission] were conducting an insider trading investigation of this transaction they would see the sudden purchase of individual stocks when the subject of the investigation had not purchased individual stocks before and had recently had access to market-moving information as a huge red flag.”

Last year, federal prosecutors investigated stock sales made in advance of a coronavirus-fueled market plunge by and connected to Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C., Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., then-Sen. Kelly Loeffler, R-Ga., and Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif.

Those probes ended without charges being filed — but the investigations and details about the controversial trades were widely publicized at the time. Loeffler was defeated in a runoff election in January.

By not disclosing the purchase, Paul avoided becoming the subject of an investigation like the ones that targeted his fellow senators last year.

Paul’s disclosure Wednesday was first reported by The Washington Post. But the fact that the Gilead shares were the couple’s one and only stock buy in the last decade has not been reported until now.

A spokeswoman for Paul said the senator and his wife “lost money” on the Gilead stock.

While it’s true that the price of Gilead is lower now than when Kelley Paul bought the shares, she has not sold the Gilead stock yet, meaning she has not realized any losses or gains from it.

CNBC asked Paul’s spokeswoman, Kelsey Cooper, if the senator or his wife had bought or sold any stocks in the year since the Gilead purchase. She did not answer.

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The price of Gilead stock has fluctuated since Kelley Paul bought shares at $74.70, climbing as high as $83.99 and falling as low as $56.56.

Gilead shares were trading at $70.65 late Thursday.

Exactly how many shares Kelley Paul owns is unclear. Senators are required to report the value of transactions by them or their spouses only within a range of dollar values. In this case, Kelley Paul bought between $1,001 and $15,000 worth of shares, Sen. Paul’s disclosure said.

Last month, Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., disclosed stock and stock option trades valued at a total of between $894,000 and $3.5 million from January through May.

Like Paul, Tuberville made his disclosure after the expiration of the deadline set by the STOCK Act.

Tuberville’s trades included a Jan. 25 sale of stock put options for Alibaba Group Holding Limited, the giant Chinese e-commerce company. Tuberville is a leading critic of China.

A Tuberville spokeswoman told CNBC last month that the senator had not even known about the individual stock and stock option trades and therefore also had not known they needed to be disclosed by the STOCK Act’s deadline.

She said Tuberville has financial advisors who handle his stock trading. She would not identify those managers when asked who they were.

Correction: This article has been updated to reflect the correct spelling of remdesivir.

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Politics

Afghanistan conflict will unfold past borders as Taliban advances: negotiator

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The Taliban’s blitz of Afghan territory expanded on Wednesday, with the insurgents asserting control over nine of the country’s 34 provincial capitals.

Afghan and U.S. officials have warned of catastrophic violence in the war-torn country of 39 million as the deadline approaches for all U.S. troops to withdraw by the end of August.

Nader Nadery, a senior member of the Afghan Peace Negotiation Team, expressed grave concern over the rapidly worsening situation while speaking to CNBC on Wednesday.

“If the Taliban advances militarily, the region will be burned. This war will not be contained within the borders of Afghanistan,” Nadery told CNBC’s Capital Connection.

Asked what he saw as the most immediate danger to the international community, Nadery, who lived through decades of turmoil in Afghanistan, described a potential swell in terrorist activity far beyond the country fueled by a sense of victory over Western forces.

The fear is of “a consolidation of power of all the terrorist groups [under] the umbrella of Taliban and the space that the Taliban is providing for them,” Nadery said.

“The slogan now of every single terrorist group with the jihadist mind is ‘now that we have defeated the United States and its 42 allies in Afghanistan, we can go after them anywhere’,” Nadery added. “That slogan is a clear danger that will enable groups like the Daesh (ISIS), Al Qaeda and others to rally more people, because they’re on the march, they feel triumphant.”

“Members of the Taliban told us in our face that they have defeated the United States and the NATO allies,” he continued. “And that’s not going to be an easy slogan for them to give up, it will be a danger to any disenchanted young in the region and in a broader global arena, where they will join forces around that slogan, and this is not an easy danger.”

International terrorism spawning from a war-torn state is all too familiar. Al Qaeda grew in the 1990s as the group was provided a haven by Afghanistan’s Taliban government, providing a base to plan the September 11 attacks, which prompted the initial U.S. invasion of Afghanistan nearly 20 years ago.

The Taliban’s continued push for power across Afghanistan is also bolstered by the group’s recently gained international legitimacy, starting with the U.S.-Taliban peace deal and more recently its senior members’ visit to China that saw what appeared to be warming ties with Beijing.

“China, unfortunately, have given them [the Taliban] a red carpet just recently, those things need to be ended if we are to see a stable region,” Nadery said.

‘They’ve got to fight for themselves’

At the White House on Tuesday, President Joe Biden told reporters that he does not regret his decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan, despite shocking gains by the Taliban.

“Look, we spent over a trillion dollars over twenty years, we trained and equipped with modern equipment over 300,000 Afghan forces,” Biden said.

“Afghan leaders have to come together,” the president added. “They’ve got to fight for themselves, fight for their nation.”

In April, Biden ordered the full withdrawal of approximately 3,000 U.S. troops from Afghanistan by Sept. 11.

The Pentagon’s colossal task of removing servicemembers and equipment out of Afghanistan is nearly complete, with the U.S. military mission slated to end by Aug. 31.

Since the U.S. began its withdrawal from the war-torn country, the Taliban has made stunning battlefield advances despite being vastly outnumbered by the Afghan military.

On Wednesday, the Taliban seized three provincial Afghan capitals as well as a local army headquarters in Kunduz, according to the Associated Press. Wednesday’s gains give the Taliban approximately two-thirds control of the nation.

What’s more, the Taliban swiftly seized five provincial Afghan capitals over the weekend, taking three in one day alone.

An Afghan special force member attends a military operation against the Taliban fighters in Kandak Anayat village of Kunduz city, Afghanistan, July 23, 2021.

Ajmal Kakar | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images

At the Pentagon, spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Monday that while the Biden administration plans to continue to provide air support, there was not much else the U.S. military could do.

“We will certainly support from the air, where and when feasible, but that’s no substitute for leadership on the ground, it’s no substitute for political leadership in Kabul, it’s no substitute for using the capabilities and capacity that we know they have,” Kirby said.

Kirby added that while the Pentagon is concerned to see such advances by the Taliban, the Afghan military must now leverage the years of training from U.S. and NATO coalition forces.

“They have an Air Force, the Taliban doesn’t. They have modern weaponry and organizational skills, the Taliban doesn’t. They have superior numbers to the Taliban,” Kirby said. “They have the advantages, and it’s really now their time to use those advantages.”

Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby speaks at press conference at the Pentagon January 28, 2021 in Arlington,Virginia.

Yasin Ozturk | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

As the security situation in Afghanistan worsens, the State Department is looking at ways in which to downsize the U.S. Embassy in Kabul. There are approximately 600 U.S. troops protecting the embassy grounds.

“Obviously it is a challenging security environment and were we able, were we confident and were we comfortable having a larger staffing presence there we would,” State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters Tuesday when asked about the reduction in staff in Kabul.

“We are evaluating the threat environment on a daily basis. The Embassy is in regular contact with Washington with the most senior people in this building, who in turn are in regular contact with our colleagues at the [National Security Council] in the White House,” Price added.

Amanda Macias contributed to this report from Washington.

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Health

Charts present how far delta variant has unfold all over the world

A sign warning people to stay separated due to Covid-19 can be seen in Mevagissey, UK on July 29, 2021.

Finnbarr Webster | Getty Images News | Getty Images

More than a year after the Covid-19 pandemic, the world is struggling with a highly transmissible Delta variant, which has led to a renewed increase in infections in countries from the UK and the US. to those in Africa and Asia.

The Delta variant, which was first discovered in India last October, has been found in more than 130 countries around the world, according to the World Health Organization.

Delta is the most commonly transmitted variant of the coronavirus, which first appeared in China in late 2019, said Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, epidemiologist and technical director for Covid-19 at the WHO.

“The virus itself is, as it begins, a dangerous virus, a highly transmissible virus. The Delta variant is even more – it is twice more transmissible than the ancestral strain, it is 50% more transmissible than the Alpha strain, ”she said at a WHO press conference last week.

The alpha variant was first discovered in Great Britain

Globally, the number of reported Covid-19 cases exceeded 200 million on Wednesday and more than 4.2 million people have died from it, data compiled by Johns Hopkins University showed.

Delta variant prevalence

Delta is one of four “Concerning Variants” listed by the WHO. Such variants are considered to be more contagious, more resistant to current vaccines and treatments, or could cause more serious illness.

The delta variant has become the dominant Covid-19 pathogen in many countries.

According to genetically sequenced coronavirus samples collected by GISAID, around 65 countries have discovered cases of Covid caused by the Delta variant in the four weeks leading up to August 5.

GISAID is a platform for scientists to share information about viruses, and their data is widely used by the global scientific community, including the WHO.

Data on the prevalence of the Covid Delta variant likely underestimate the real situation as some countries do not share sequenced samples with GISAID, while others may not have the ability and resources to perform virus sequencing.

In 55 of these countries, the delta variant accounted for more than half of the virus samples submitted, according to data compiled by GISAID.

Effectiveness of the vaccine

The Covid Delta variant has not spared countries with some of the highest vaccination rates in the world.

Israel, where more than 62% of the population is fully vaccinated, reported an increase in daily cases last month as Delta became the dominant strain in the country.

When the Delta variant spread in Israel, the Ministry of Health found that the effectiveness of the Covid vaccine dropped to just 39% with two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech, although protection against serious illnesses remained high. The country has started giving booster shots to people over the age of 60.

But a study in the UK, where the Delta variant is also fueling a surge in infections, found that two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech or the AstraZeneca-Oxford University vaccine were almost as effective against Delta as against the Alpha variant.

The study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, used real world data and found that two doses of the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine were 88% effective against the Delta variant. That’s compared to 93.7% versus the Alpha strain, it said.

According to the study, the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine was found to be 67% effective against Delta, compared to 74.5% effectiveness against the Alpha variant.

However, vaccination progress has remained inconsistent around the world. Many poorer developing countries are lagging behind due to their lack of access to Covid-19 vaccines.

On Wednesday, WHO urged rich nations to stop distributing booster vaccines, highlighting global injustice in vaccines.

Aside from getting more people vaccinated, WHO’s Van Kerkhove said there are steps individuals can take to better protect themselves from the Delta variant. That includes wearing a mask, keeping your hands clean, and spending more time outdoors than indoors, she said last week.

“This won’t be the last variant of the virus you will hear us talk about,” she added. “The virus is likely to become more transmissible because viruses do just that – they evolve, they change over time, and so we have to do everything we can to contain it.”

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Vaccinated Folks Could Unfold the Virus, Although Hardly ever, C.D.C. Reviews

In another unexpected and unwelcome twist in the pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a report on Friday strongly suggesting that fully immunized people with so-called breakthrough Delta variant infections can pass the virus on to others as easily as unvaccinated people People.

The vaccines remain highly effective against serious illness and death, and the agency said infections are comparatively rare in people who have been vaccinated. But the reveal follows a number of other recent discoveries about the Delta variant that have turned scientists’ understanding of the coronavirus on its head.

In the new report, which should explain the agency’s sudden revision of its masking recommendations for vaccinated Americans, the CDC described an outbreak in Provincetown, Massachusetts this month that rose rapidly to 470 cases in Massachusetts alone by Thursday.

Three quarters of those infected were fully immunized, and the Delta variant was found in most of the genetically analyzed samples. Vaccinated and unvaccinated people who were infected carried high levels of the virus, the agency reported.

“High viral loads indicate an increased risk of transmission and raised concerns that, unlike other variants, people infected with Delta can transmit the virus,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC, on Friday.

The viral load data shows that even fully vaccinated people can spread the virus just as easily as unvaccinated people who become infected. “We believe this can be done on an individual level, which is why we have updated our recommendation,” said Dr. Walensky in an email to the New York Times earlier this week.

An internal agency document the Times received Thursday evening indicated even greater concern among CDC scientists, raising harrowing questions about the virus and its trajectory.

The delta variant is about as contagious as chickenpox, the document says, and universal masking may be necessary. Nevertheless, according to the agency, breakthrough infections are rare overall.

On Friday, the Kaiser Family Foundation reported that the breakthrough rate among fully vaccinated people in states that store such data is less than 1 percent.

The accumulated research on the variant messes up the country’s plans to return to offices and schools this fall, and enlivens tough questions about masking, testing, and other precautions that Americans had hoped were behind them.

Government officials and scientists alike are seriously concerned that the results could shake confidence in the vaccines and shake the nation’s delayed vaccination campaign if Americans mistakenly conclude that the vaccinations are not effective.

Concerned about the delayed campaign, President Biden has ordered all federal employees to be vaccinated or tested for viruses on a weekly basis. Support for vaccination regulations is growing at some companies and in some parts of the country.

Developing research into the Delta variant has humiliated scientists around the world who are now asking themselves new questions about the virus that they had not considered.

They do not understand the circumstances that can increase the likelihood of a breakthrough infection, nor who is most at risk. They don’t know for sure that the Delta variant causes more severe illness in unvaccinated people who become infected, although early data suggests it.

“We spent so much time, energy, and treasure last year trying to figure out this damn virus and how it works and what it does,” said Dr. Robert Wachter, chairman of the Department of Medicine at the University of California. San Francisco.

To learn how differently the Delta variant differs from the original virus is “just plain staggering,” he added. “The brain doesn’t like being pushed around like that.”

While breakthrough infections are rare, the new data suggest that those who were vaccinated may contribute to an increase in new infections – albeit likely to a far lesser extent than those who were not. Breakthrough infections have always been reckoned with, but until the arrival of the Delta variant, vaccinated Americans were not seen as drivers of its spread in the community.

“Delta teaches us to expect the unexpected,” said John Moore, a virologist at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York. “There are aspects of what we now know that we don’t see coming.”

Updated

July 30, 2021, 7:36 p.m. ET

The finding is frightening, but vaccines remain the only reliable shield against the virus in whatever form. Even with the Delta variant, the vaccines largely prevent infection and significantly reduce the likelihood of serious illness or death in the event of an infection.

Nationwide, about 97 percent of people hospitalized with Covid-19 are unvaccinated, according to the CDC.

“Full vaccination is very protective, even against Delta,” said Angela Rasmussen, researcher at the Organization for Vaccines and Infectious Diseases at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada.

“Masks are a wise precaution, but most of the transmission occurs among the unvaccinated and that is still the most at risk,” she added.

The accumulated research underscores the urgency to accelerate the rate of vaccination in the United States and reduce the number of people susceptible to serious illnesses. This week, the vaccination rate in the European Union exceeded that in the US for the first time.

About 58 percent of Americans 12 years and older are fully vaccinated. The rate of vaccination has slowed to just over 500,000 people a day, although it has swung up slightly in recent weeks as infections pick up again.

In the UK, where the variant seems to have subsided after an increase, vaccinations have been introduced by age and a much higher proportion of people over 50 are vaccinated than in the United States.

Understand the state of vaccine mandates in the United States

Vaccination rates are much more inconsistent across the United States, said Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. “The result is that what Delta is doing in the UK is not necessarily what it will be doing in places with very different vaccinations,” he said.

“Things are getting worse than they would have been,” without the variant, he added. “But they will be much better than they would have been without the vaccination.”

In its report on Friday, the CDC urged local and state officials in jurisdictions with even lower virus concentrations to consider precautions such as masking and restricting gatherings. The CDC internal document sounded more urgent, recommending that the agency “recognize that the war has changed”.

Indeed, the questions Americans now face seem almost inexhaustible, almost insoluble. Should companies allow employees to return to work when vaccinated people could occasionally spread the variant? What does this mean for shops, restaurants and schools? Are unmasked family celebrations off the table again?

With the number of daily cases averaging nearly 72,000 on Friday, the new data suggests vaccinated people with young children, aging parents, or friends and family with weak immune systems may need to wear masks to protect those around them – even in Communities with lower infection rates.

The Provincetown, Massachusetts outbreak germinated this month after more than 60,000 revelers celebrated the July 4th gathering in crowded bars, restaurants, guest houses and rental apartments, often indoors.

On July 3, there were no cases in the city or the surrounding district. By July 10, officials saw an increase and by July 17 there were 177 cases per 100,000 people. The outbreak has since spread to nearly 900 people across the country.

“Vaccines are like waders,” said Dr. Rasmussen. “They keep you dry when you wade through a river, but when you get too deep, water starts flowing over it. That seems to have happened with the Massachusetts eruption. “

Three-quarters of citizens linked to the outbreak reported a cough, headache, sore throat, or fever – symptoms of an upper respiratory tract infection – and 74 percent were known to be fully immunized.

Of the five people hospitalized, four were fully vaccinated – one with the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine and three with the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Two of the vaccinated patients had previous illnesses. The genetic analysis of 133 cases identified the delta variant in 119 cases and a closely related virus in another case.

Scientists even warned last year that the vaccines may not completely prevent infection or transmission. However, experts didn’t expect these infections to play a significant role in the fight against the virus, nor did they anticipate how quickly the Delta variant would rip across the country.

“Two months ago I thought we were over the top,” said Dr. Guardian. In San Francisco, the most heavily vaccinated city in the country, 77 percent of people over the age of 12 are vaccinated.

And yet the hospital he works in has grown significantly, from a Covid-19 case on June 1 to 40 now. 15 of the patients are in intensive care.

“When a 70 or 75 percent immunity doesn’t protect the community, I think it’s very difficult to extrapolate what happens to a place that is 30 percent vaccinated,” said Dr. Guardian. “Humility is perhaps the most important thing here.”

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Behind the Masks, a Thriller: How Usually Do the Vaccinated Unfold the Virus?

The recommendation that vaccinated people dust their masks off in some parts of the country was based, according to Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is largely based on a problematic finding.

New research showed that vaccinated people infected with the Delta variant carry tremendous amounts of the virus in their noses and throats, she said in an email in response to questions from the New York Times.

The finding contradicts what scientists had observed in vaccinated people who were infected with previous versions of the virus and who mostly appeared unable to infect others.

This conclusion dealt a severe blow to Americans: people with what are known as breakthrough infections – cases that occur despite being fully vaccinated – of the Delta variant can be just as contagious as unvaccinated people, even if they have no symptoms.

This means that fully vaccinated people with young children, aging parents, or friends and family with weak immune systems need to renew their vigilance, especially in communities with high transmission. Vaccinated Americans may need to wear masks not only to protect themselves but everyone around them.

In the US, there are an average of 67,000 new cases per day as of Thursday. If vaccinated people transmit the Delta variant, they can contribute to the increases – albeit likely to a far lesser extent than those who were not vaccinated.

The CDC has not yet released its data, frustrating experts who want to understand the basis for the change of heart with masks. But four scientists familiar with the research said it was imperative, and based the CDC’s advice, that those vaccinated again wear masks in public indoor spaces.

The study was conducted by a group outside the CDC, the scientists said, and the agency is working quickly to analyze and publish the results.

It is still unclear how common breakthrough infections are and how long the virus stays in the body in these cases, said Dr. Walensky. Breakthroughs are rare and unvaccinated people are responsible for the majority of virus transmission, she said.

Regardless, the data the CDC is reviewing suggests that even fully immunized people can be unwilling vectors for the virus. “We believe this can be done on an individual level, which is why we have updated our recommendation,” said Dr. Walensky in her email to the Times.

The conclusion also suggests that vaccinated people exposed to the virus should get tested even if they feel fine. (In the UK, vaccinated individuals who come into contact with a known case are required to isolate themselves for 10 days.)

The new data doesn’t mean the vaccines are ineffective. The vaccines are still effective in preventing serious illness and death as they were intended, and people with breakthrough infections very rarely end up in hospital.

Updated

July 29, 2021, 5:53 p.m. ET

According to data from the CDC, around 97 percent of people hospitalized with Covid-19 are unvaccinated. (Immunity to a natural infection can offer even less protection.)

Earlier versions of the virus rarely broke the immunization barrier, prompting the CDC to advise in May that vaccinated people could go mask-free indoors. But the usual rules don’t seem to apply to the delta variant.

The variant is twice as contagious as the original virus, and one study found that the amount of virus in unvaccinated people infected with Delta could be a thousand times higher than in people infected with the original version of the virus. The CDC data support this finding, said an expert familiar with the results.

Anecdotes of clusters of breakthrough infections are becoming more common, with groups of those vaccinated reporting runny nose, headache, sore throat, or loss of taste or smell – symptoms of an upper respiratory infection.

The overwhelming majority, however, do not need intensive care because the immune system created by the vaccine destroys the virus before it can reach the lungs.

Understand the state of vaccine mandates in the United States

“We’re still going to see a huge, huge impact on disease severity and hospitalization,” said Michal Tal, an immunologist at Stanford University. “That’s what the vaccine was really made for.”

The coronavirus vaccines are injected into the muscle, and most of the antibodies produced in response remain in the blood. Some antibodies can get into the nose, the main entry point for the virus, but not enough to block it.

“The vaccines – they’re beautiful, they work, they’re amazing,” said Frances Lund, a viral immunologist at the University of Alabama in Birmingham. “But they won’t give you that local immunity.”

When people are exposed to a respiratory pathogen, it can gain a foothold in the lining of the nose – without causing any further damage. “If you walked down the street and wiped people, you’d find people with viruses in their lining that were asymptomatic,” said Dr. Michael Marks, epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “Our immune systems fight these things most of the time.”

But the Delta variant seems to thrive in the nose, and its abundance could explain why more people than scientists expected are experiencing breakthrough infections and cold-like symptoms.

However, when the virus tries to snake its way into the lungs, the immune cells in vaccinated people are fired up and quickly clear the infection before it does any major damage. That means vaccinated people should be infected and contagious for a much shorter period of time than unvaccinated people, said Dr. Lund.

“But that doesn’t mean they can’t pass it on to someone else for the first few days when they’re infected,” she added.

To stop the virus right where it enters, some experts have recommended nasal spray vaccines that would prevent the intruder from entering the upper respiratory tract. “Vaccine 1.0 is designed to prevent death and hospitalization. Vaccine 2.0 should prevent transmission, ”said Dr. Valley. “We just need one more iteration.”

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How India is doing now after delta variant unfold

A health worker preparing the Covid vaccination syringe for a beneficiary at a vaccination center in Mandir Marg on July 21, 2021 in New Delhi, India.

Hindustan times | Hindustan times | Getty Images

The Delta variant was first discovered in India last October and resulted in a massive second wave of Covid-19 cases in the country.

Since then, the highly contagious strain has spread around the world.

The variant has usurped the previously dominant alpha variant, which was first discovered in Great Britain last fall, and triggered further waves of infections in Europe and a threatening increase in cases in the USA

In fact, the delta variant now accounts for 83% of all sequenced cases in the US, the director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Rochelle Walensky said Tuesday, a dramatic 50% increase the week of July 3rd means.

The World Health Organization has already warned that due to the estimated transmission benefit of the Delta variant, “it is expected to quickly overtake other variants and become the dominant circulating line” in the coming months.

In its latest weekly report on Wednesday, the WHO found that the prevalence of Delta among the specimens sequenced in the past four weeks in many countries worldwide including Australia, Bangladesh, Botswana, China, Denmark, India, Indonesia, Israel, Portugal, Russia , Singapore, South Africa and the UK

WHO map showing the global prevalence of variants

World Health Organization

But what about India, where the Delta variant first appeared in October?

The situation is still bad, data shows, but not as bad as it was when the second wave peaked in the country, when the daily new cases were above 400,000. On May 7, India reported a staggering 414,188 new infections and several thousand deaths.

Fortunately, cases have decreased significantly since then. On Thursday, India reported 41,383 new coronavirus infections and 507 new deaths, the Indian Ministry of Health tweeted the data.

The seven-day average of 38,548 new cases every day is a 3% decrease from the previous average, according to data from Johns Hopkins University and Our World in Data.

Meanwhile, the percentage change in the number of newly confirmed cases in the past seven days (compared to the number in the previous seven days) is sharp in parts of Europe and the United States.

In France, the percentage change in the number of new cases over the past seven days is 223% in France, 112% in Italy, while the percentage change in Germany is 50%. In the US, the percentage change over the past seven days is 58% higher than the previous seven-day period.

Nevertheless, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, India has the second highest number of registered Covid cases worldwide with over 31.2 million cases and almost 419,000 deaths, after the US.

During the first wave of the pandemic, India went into a nationwide lockdown in March 2020, which was only lifted in June last year with a series of easings over the following summer months.

However, when the second (and much tougher) wave hit in early 2021, Prime Minister Narendra Modi defied pressure to re-impose a national lockdown and left the responsibility to individual states as to whether they should reintroduce restrictions instead. A member of Modi’s economic advisory council defended the Modi government when it came under pressure in May, telling CNBC that state governments should have the final say on social restrictions.

Additionally, in order to tackle its Covid crisis, India has stopped exporting Covid vaccines (it makes a domestic version of AstraZeneca University Oxford called “Covishield”) and is not expected to resume exports until the end of the year the year.

Public health experts told the FT in late May that regional lockdowns, decreased social interaction and increasing levels of antibodies to Covid in the general population are helping to lower the infection rate in India. Vaccinations have also helped continue the downward trend in cases.

Exposure to Covid during the second wave was illustrated in the latest data showing the prevalence of antibodies to Covid in the general population.

A national blood serum poll that performed antibody tests (known as the Sero Poll) was released Tuesday and showed that two-thirds of the Indian population have antibodies to Covid, Reuters reported, although about 400 million of India’s 1.36 billion People did not have antibodies, the survey found.

Monitoring one of the largest vaccination campaigns in the world (India needs to vaccinate around a billion adults) is no easy task and the overall vaccination rate remains sluggish compared to other countries around the world.

Our World in Data figures show that 87.5 million people (around 6.3% of the total population, including children) are fully vaccinated, while 330.2 million people have received at least one dose of people who are fully vaccinated.

Inside together

On Tuesday, Modi expressed concern about a “significant” number of health care workers and frontline workers who have still not been vaccinated despite the vaccination program launched more than six months ago.

In a press release released by the government in which senior officials briefed on the Covid situation in India, Modi also spoke of the need to “remain vigilant about the situation in different countries,” noting that “mutations make this disease very unpredictable. and so we must all stand together and fight this disease. “

Chandrakant Lahariya, a New Delhi-based doctor who is also an expert on vaccines, public order and health systems, told CNBC that India is not out of the woods yet.

“The results of the fourth national sero survey … confirm what many had suspected: 67.6% of the total population and 62% of those who have not been vaccinated have developed antibodies (against Covid). Almost all age groups over 6 years have antibodies. This shows the extent of the virus spread in the second wave, “he noted.

“We know that [the] The vaccination rate is lower than expected and the Covid-compatible behavior is not optimal. With 400 million of the population still vulnerable, it would be like inviting the next wave ahead of time to abandon our vigilance. India needs to be fully prepared for each subsequent wave. What is happening in Indonesia, Vietnam or Great Britain is an alarm bell that no country can lose its vigilance and [that they] have to do everything in their arsenal, “he added.

The emergence of several significant varieties of concerns around the world (such as alpha, beta and delta), which then become widespread, “reaffirms how connected we are in this pandemic,” Lahariya continued.

“This is a reminder that we must view the challenges of a pandemic as one global community. It reminds us that we need all interventions and vaccine availability as our shared responsibility safe ‘must be repeated until it is understood at all levels, “he said.

Lahariya believed that more variants would emerge as the pandemic progressed. “We should be prepared for further variants until the pandemic is declared over.” Nobody knows where these variants will appear next.

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Health

Dr. Scott Gottlieb says U.S. is ‘vastly underestimating’ stage of Covid delta unfold

Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Friday that he believes the US is significantly under counting Covid Delta infections, making it difficult to know if the highly communicable strain is causing unexpectedly high hospital admissions and death rates.

“We just don’t know what the denominator is,” said Gottlieb in an interview with “Squawk Box”. “I think we are underestimating the extent of the Delta Spread right now because I think that people who are vaccinated may develop mild symptoms or develop a breakthrough case, by and large, not going out and getting tested. has been vaccinated and you are just catching a mild cold, don’t think you have Covid. “

Coronavirus cases in the United States have increased due to the Delta variant, with the seven-day average of new infections every day a CNBC analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University at 26,448. That’s 67% more than a week ago. The weekly average of new daily deaths has increased to 273 from a week ago, according to CNBC analysis.

“There is no clear evidence that this is more pathogenic, that it causes more serious infections. It is clearly more virulent, it is clearly more contagious” than previous strains of the virus, said Gottlieb, who sits on the board of directors at Covid vaccine manufacturer Pfizer.

If younger Americans get the Delta variant at a higher level compared to earlier points in the pandemic, it is because “younger people remain unvaccinated,” claimed Gottlieb. “When vaccinated people get infected and there are breakthrough infections, they don’t get as sick. They are protected from serious illnesses.”

Delta is now the most common strain of coronavirus in the United States, accounting for more than 57% of cases in the two weeks June 20 through July 3. This is the latest available window on the CDC website.

U.S. health officials have been sounding the alarm for weeks about the potential of the variant to reduce hard-earned advances in reducing infection rates that plummeted in the spring as the American vaccination campaign took off. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, by Friday 48.3% of the country’s population had been fully vaccinated and nearly 56% had received at least one dose.

The Covid vaccination rate is higher in the most vulnerable group of Americans: the elderly. According to the CDC, more than 79% of people aged 65 and over are fully vaccinated and nearly 89% have received at least one dose.

The vast majority of US states with currently high infection rates – defined as at least 100 new cases in the last seven days per 100,000 residents – have vaccinated fewer than 40% of their residents, according to a CNBC analysis completed earlier this week.

Los Angeles County officials responded Thursday to a surge in cases by reintroducing an indoor mask mandate for those who were fully vaccinated. LA County, the most populous county in the country, had lifted its previous mask requirement about a month ago, in conjunction with the lifting of most of its remaining pandemic restrictions by the state of California.

Gottlieb said he doesn’t expect many other state or local governments to follow LA County and put in place abated mitigation measures “because there won’t be much support for mandates at this point.”

“People who are worried about Covid have been vaccinated for the most part. I understand that not everyone could be vaccinated, but most of the people who are worried about this infection have been vaccinated,” said Gottlieb, who was the FDA in 2017 in the Trump administration until 2019.

“People who remain unvaccinated are not worried about the infection or want to wear masks. The bottom line is that this will only spread to the population,” he added.

Disclosure: Scott Gottlieb is a CNBC employee and a member of the board of directors of Pfizer, genetic testing startup Tempus, health technology company Aetion, and biotechnology company Illumina. He is also co-chair of the Healthy Sail Panel of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Royal Caribbean.

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World News

Warmth Wave Unfold Fireplace That Erased Lytton, British Columbia

TORONTO — Something strange was happening to the acacia trees in Lytton, British Columbia.

The small town in Western Canada had seen three days of extreme heat that each broke national temperature records by June 30, rising to 121 degrees. That morning at the Lytton Chinese History Museum, Lorna Fandrich noticed the green leaves dropping off the trees surrounding the building, she said, apparently unable to tolerate the heat.

Hours later, Lytton was on fire. A village of fewer than 300 people, nestled among mountain ranges, and prone to hot summers, the town was consumed by flames that destroyed 90 percent of it, killed two and injured several others, the authorities said.

Investigators are probing whether local rail traffic is responsible for starting the fire, which was exacerbated by the heat, amid temperatures that climate researchers say would virtually not be possible without human-caused global warming.

On Friday, when a path was finally cleared of downed power lines, bricks and other debris to make way for five buses taking residents to tour the town, the village was almost unrecognizable, the residents said.

Mounds of warped metal and disfigured wood poked out of gutted buildings. Whatever brick walls remained were often scarred by black scorch marks.

Matilda and Peter Brown saw that their house has been destroyed, leaving just the skeleton of a traditional Indigenous hut used to air dry salmon.

“That was our home,” Ms. Brown said through tears. “That was our sanctuary. Right now we have no place.”

The extreme heat wave that blasted through much of the Pacific Northwest at the end of June spurred widespread wildfires, a drastic spike in heat-related deaths and environmental devastation that wiped out millions of coastal wildlife.

Lytton was hit particularly hard, with temperatures ranging between 116 and 121 degrees. The fire left displaced residents and neighboring Indigenous communities wondering what could be salvaged among the ashes.

“Where many buildings stood is now simply charred earth,” the village of Lytton said in a July 6 statement.

Mr. Brown, who is from the Lytton First Nation, lost one of the family’s heirloom cedar baskets and some personal documents, stowed away in a gun safe.

Ms. Brown is a member of the Ts’kw’aylaxw First Nation, near the neighboring town of Lillooet, where she was leading an addiction counseling group at the time of the fire. She said she is taking time away from work to tend to this “nightmare.”

“I don’t want to be a wounded healer,” she added.

A dramatic scene unfolded June 30 when “someone banged on the office windows after hours” to alert town staff members of the fire, the village statement said. The mayor ordered a complete evacuation, while volunteer firefighters attempted to tame the roaring blaze in dry conditions that allowed it to tear through the town.

At the height of the heat wave, more than 90 crew members flew to British Columbia to help the wildfire service, battling flames over thousands of acres in challenging conditions for overheating equipment. Sudden deaths also rose sharply due to the heat. Emergency responders attended 777 that were reported to the provincial coroner’s office between June 25 and July 1, more than three times the number in the same period last year.

The heat wave in Canada presented an additional public health concern, as authorities were still grappling with the challenge of the coronavirus and Canadians just beginning to enjoy some of the pleasures of summer as restrictions ease.

Gordon Murray, president of the Two Rivers Farmers Market in Lytton, said feelings of grief, sorrow, anger and frustration aboard his bus on Friday were “overwhelming.”

More disconcerting still was just how localized the fire was, he said. He and his partner have been living in Lytton for about a decade, and could see their chimney and white fireplace from their vantage point on the bus. They also lost a cat to the fire.

“That was one of the strange things about it, is that the town is erased,” Mr. Murray said. “Literally, there’s an occasional chimney stack as a kind of exclamation point to the fact that the town is completely gone.”

Ten animal welfare workers were allowed behind the evacuation perimeter on July 8 to carry out a pet and livestock rescue. Forty-one animals were saved and were being assessed before they could be reunited with their owners, said Lorie Chortyk, a spokeswoman at the British Columbia Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals.

Ms. Fandrich, the museum owner, opted not to join the tour, “because it’ll be very emotional, and I think we’ll just wait until they let us go down on an individual basis,” she said.

Though she is not of Chinese heritage herself, she opened the museum in 2017, modeled after a traditional temple that once existed on that land to recognize the contributions and history of Chinese workers in British Columbia. It housed more than 1,600 artifacts, books and archives — all lost in the fire. The town’s history museum also burned down.

“We’ve lost two of the core parts of our history,” Ms. Fandrich said. “So that’s all gone.”

The nearby homes of her two sons were razed. Her daughter’s coffee shop was also destroyed.

The severity of the fires that scorched close to 1.7 million acres in Canada reported by its natural resources agency, occurred with temperatures that surpassed what researchers had ever seen in previous heat waves, according to a recent analysis by a team of international climate researchers.

On the province’s Salish Sea coast, Christopher Harley, a marine biologist and professor at the University of British Columbia, has been surveying the heat wave’s toll on the shoreline, estimating it to be in the billions. On a beach site visit Friday, he said the crunch of dead mussels beneath his feet was a bleak reminder of the devastation to wildlife.

“You start adding in the clams and the barnacles and the sea stars and the snails,” he said. “The true number, whatever it is, is going to be almost incomprehensible.”

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Health

Masks Once more? Delta Variant’s Unfold Prompts Reconsideration of Precautions.

Throughout the pandemic, masks were among the most controversial public health measures in the United States, symbolizing a bitter partisan divide over the role of government and individual freedoms.

Now, with a new variant of the coronavirus spreading rapidly around the world, masks are once again the focus of conflicting views and fears about how the pandemic will unfold and the constraints needed to cope with it.

The renewed concerns follow forest fire growth of the Delta variant, a highly infectious form of the virus first discovered in India and later identified in at least 85 countries. It now accounts for one in five infections in the United States.

In May, federal health officials said fully vaccinated people no longer need to mask themselves, even indoors. The council marked a fundamental change in American life and set the stage for a national reopening that continues to gain momentum.

But that was before the delta variant spread. Concerned about a global surge in cases, the World Health Organization reiterated its long-standing recommendation last week that everyone – including those who have been vaccinated – wear masks to contain the spread of the virus.

Los Angeles County health officials followed on Monday, recommending that “everyone, regardless of vaccination status, should wear masks as a precaution in public places indoors.”

Barbara Ferrer, the county’s public health director, said the new recommendation was because of the increase in infections, an increase in cases due to the worrying Delta variant, and the continued high numbers of unvaccinated residents, especially children, black and Latin American residents, and important workers.

About half of Los Angeles County’s residents are fully vaccinated, and about 60 percent have received at least one dose. While the number of positive tests in the county is still below 1 percent, the rate has increased, added Dr. Ferrer added, and the number of reinfections in residents who were previously infected and not vaccinated has increased.

As far as Los Angeles County has managed to control the pandemic, it was due to a multi-faceted strategy that combined vaccinations with health restrictions to curb new infections, said Dr. Ferrer. Natural immunity among those already infected has also kept transmission low, she noted, but it is not clear how long the natural immunity will last.

“We don’t want to go back to lockdown or disruptive mandates here,” said Dr. Ferrer. “We want to stay on the path we are currently on, which keeps the transmission by the community very low.”

Health officials in Chicago and New York City said Tuesday that they had no plans to re-examine masking requirements. Officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declined to comment but did not signal any intention to revise or re-examine the masking recommendations for fully vaccinated individuals.

“When the CDC made the recommendation To stop masking, it didn’t anticipate that we might be in a situation where we might need to recommend masking again, ”said Angela Rasmussen, researcher at the Vaccines and Infectious Disease Organization at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada .

“Nobody will want to do it. The people understandably accuse them of having moved the goal posts. “

But the Delta variant’s trajectory outside of the United States suggests that concerns are likely to increase.

Even Israel – which has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world and aggressively immunizes young adolescents and teenagers who qualify – has reintroduced the mask requirement in indoor public spaces and at large outdoor public gatherings after hundreds of new Covid-19 cases were discovered in the past few days, including in people who received both doses of the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine.

This isn’t the first time the world has been consumed by a more contagious variant of the coronavirus. The alpha variant rolled over the UK and brought the rest of Europe to a standstill earlier this year. Alpha quickly became the dominant variety in the United States by late March, but the rapid pace of vaccination slowed its spread and saved the nation a huge surge in infections.

But Delta is considered even more terrifying. Much of what is known about the variant is based on its distribution in India and the UK, but early evidence suggests it is perhaps twice as contagious as the original virus and at least 20 percent more contagious than Alpha.

Updated

June 29, 2021 at 5:38 p.m. ET

In many Indian states and European nations, Delta has quickly overtaken Alpha and has become the dominant version of the virus. It is well on its way to do the same in the United States.

Among the many mutations in the variant are some that can help the virus to partially evade the immune system. Several studies have shown that while the current vaccines are effective against Delta, they are slightly less effective than most other variants. In people who received only one dose of a two-dose regimen, protection against the variant is significantly reduced compared to effectiveness against other forms of the virus.

The WHO rationale for keeping masking is that while vaccines are very effective at preventing serious illness and death, it is not known to what extent vaccines prevent mild or asymptomatic infections. (CDC officials disagree and say the risk is minimal.)

The WHO claims that vaccinated people should wear masks in crowded, narrow and poorly ventilated areas and take other preventive measures like social distancing.

“What we are saying is, ‘Once you are fully vaccinated, keep playing it safe because you could end up being part of a chain of transmission. You may not be fully protected, ‘”said Dr. Bruce Aylward, a senior adviser to WHO, at a news conference last week.

Even in countries with relatively high vaccination rates, there has been an increase in infections from the delta variant. Great Britain, where around two-thirds of the population have received at least one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech or AstraZeneca vaccine and almost half two doses, is still struggling with a sharp increase in infections from the variant.

It is not certain which course the delta variant will take in the USA. The coronavirus infections have been falling for months, as have been hospital admissions and deaths. But dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease doctor, has described the variant as “the greatest threat” to eliminating the virus in the United States.

When CDC officials lifted masking recommendations in May, they cited research showing that fully vaccinated individuals are unlikely to become infected with the virus, even with asymptomatic infections.

But the partial immune evasion variant’s talent makes researchers nervous, as it suggests that fully vaccinated people sometimes get asymptomatic infections and unwittingly pass the virus on to others, even if they never get the disease.

The Delta variant can infect people who have been vaccinated, although its ability to do so is very limited, said Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. “If you’re in a fall-climbing place, wearing a mask indoors in crowded public spaces is a way to keep yourself from contributing to the spread of Delta,” he said.

Other scientists do not recommend that fully vaccinated people always wear masks indoors, but some are now suggesting that this may be appropriate depending on local circumstances – for example, anywhere the virus is circulating in high numbers or vaccination rates are very low.

“Masking in closed public spaces must continue after vaccination until we can all be vaccinated or get a new vaccine that is more effective against delta transmission,” said Dr. Ravindra Gupta, a virologist at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom.

Even now, around half of Americans are not vaccinated, and much of the country remains vulnerable to outbreaks of the virus and its variants. Vaccinations for children under the age of 12 are expected to be approved in autumn at the earliest.

In Saskatchewan, Canada, the reopening took place in stages tied to the vaccination rates of the population and the percentage of people vaccinated in specific age groups.

The province moves to step 3 of re-entry on July 11, but can maintain indoor mask requirements and congregation size restrictions, said Dr. Rasmussen from the University of Saskatchewan. The strategy “makes a lot more sense than just saying, ‘When you are fully vaccinated, take off your mask,'” she said.

However, some scientists fear that it will be nearly impossible to reintroduce masking requirements and other precautions, even in places where it might be a good idea.

“It’s hard to get that back,” said David Michaels, an epidemiologist and professor at the George Washington School of Public Health, referring to the CDC advice. But with the advent of the delta variant, it is also “extremely dangerous to continue the cultural norm that nobody wears a mask”.

Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, vice president of global initiative at the University of Pennsylvania, said introducing the variant should lead to a reconsideration of the mask requirement.

He still wears a mask in public places like grocery stores and even on crowded sidewalks. “We don’t even know the long-term consequences of a slight infection,” he said, referring to so-called long Covid. “Is it worth a little more insurance by wearing a mask? Yes.”

Monroe Harmon, 60, had coffee outside the Whole Foods Market in downtown Los Angeles Tuesday morning and said he thought a step back on masking requirements for everyone is a good idea.

“There are so many people who say they just want their lives back,” said Mr. Harmon, who works for a security company. “I think you kind of roll the dice if you decide, ‘I want my life back, I won’t wear a mask, I won’t distance myself.'”

Jill Cowan and Ana Facio-Krajcer contributed the coverage from Los Angeles.