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‘X’ Marks the Spot: Officers Map a Route Out of the Pandemic

At their regular pandemic response meetings over the past year, officials in Suffolk County, N.Y., found themselves returning, again and again, to questions of geography.

“One of the common questions I used to get was, ‘Where is it bad?” said Dr. Harsha Rajashekharaiah, the senior project coordinator for the county’s Covid-19 response. “Where is the Covid transmission bad? Where is the testing bad? Where should we improve? Where should we invest our resources?”

To find answers, Dr. Rajashekharaiah used geospatial data, brandishing brightly colored maps that pinpointed the exact neighborhoods where cases were rising or where testing rates were lagging.

And after inoculations began, he started using digital mapping tools — commonly known as geographic information system, or G.I.S., software — to explore how vaccination rates varied across the county and how they correlated with a variety of demographic factors.

Several patterns soon emerged on the color-coded maps. In March, for instance, magenta splotches on the western side of the county made it clear that vaccination rates were low in neighborhoods with a high share of residents who did not speak English well. After he presented the map to his colleagues, they quickly added Spanish and Haitian Creole language assistance to their county vaccine hotline.

Over the next few months, as vaccination rates rose in these neighborhoods, portions of the map turned to yellow or even green. “I cannot sit here and conclude that our G.I.S. system is the reason that this has happened,” Dr. Rajashekharaiah said. But, he added, “G.I.S. has been a very, very powerful tool for us to communicate these barriers.”

Amid the highly uneven rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, many health officials and community organizations are drawing upon geospatial data to plan their vaccination campaigns and track their progress in fine-grained detail. Esri, a California-based company that makes widely used G.I.S. software, says that hundreds of organizations around the world — including many U.S. states and more than 20 national governments — are using its digital mapping tools to help them get shots into arms.

“G.I.S. and mapping tools have been really important to helping these health departments get people vaccinated — to be more organized in the process, more streamlined and strategic and even tactical,” said Dr. Este Geraghty, the chief medical officer of Esri.

By allowing officials to quickly spot vaccine deserts, pinpoint high-risk populations and target their resources more efficiently, digital maps have become crucial tools in the effort to ensure that vaccination campaigns leave no neighborhood behind.

Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Life Expectancy

As the virus raced across Wisconsin in the spring of 2020, officials in Milwaukee County became concerned about its unequal toll. In late March and early April, for instance, Black residents accounted for 69 percent of the Covid deaths in the county despite making up just 27 percent of its population, according to a University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee report.

These disparities were front of mind when the Covid-19 vaccines were finally authorized. “We wanted to make sure that we were equitably distributing this vaccine,” said David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive.

They began categorizing census tracts according to their vaccination rates and their scores on a national “social vulnerability index.” The index uses data on 15 different social, economic and demographic factors — including the age, minority status and education levels of residents, as well as local poverty and unemployment rates — to calculate how susceptible a given community would be in the event of some kind of disaster, like a hurricane or a pandemic.

Then the officials displayed the results online on a color-coded map. In mid-March, when the county first released it, much of the city of Milwaukee was colored dark orange, signaling that the area had high levels of social vulnerability but low vaccination rates.

On the other hand, the suburbs, where the population is wealthier and whiter, were shaded a pale yellow, indicating that they had low scores on the vulnerability index but climbing vaccination rates. “And so there was this story of the haves and have-nots, or two different cities,” said Dr. Ben Weston, who oversees the medical aspects of the county’s Covid-19 response.

County and city officials began pouring resources into deep orange neighborhoods, prioritizing those residents for vaccine appointments, adding more vaccination sites in those areas and creating pop-up sites and events at churches, food pantries, libraries, schools and cultural centers. They also started a community ambassador program — the Crush Covid Crew — to train volunteers from those deep orange census tracts to talk to their neighbors about the vaccines and dispel misinformation about them.

Although vaccination rates in the most vulnerable areas still lag behind, they have more than tripled since mid-March. “The darkest orange communities are now gone,” Dr. Weston said. “So we’re making progress.”

Updated 

Aug. 1, 2021, 11:42 a.m. ET

The Count Me In initiative in Georgia — which was created by Stacey Abrams, the former Georgia Democratic candidate for governor — has taken a similar approach. But instead of focusing on vaccination rates, it mapped vaccination sites across the state and then overlaid data on potential barriers to vaccination, including a lack of computer access and low rates of car ownership.

The map revealed numerous potential trouble spots, particularly in rural, southwest Georgia. “We saw this very large concentration of folks that had very limited vaccine access,” said Ali Bustamante, a senior research associate at the Southern Economic Advancement Project, which runs the initiative with the nonprofit organization Fair Count. “There were very few vaccination sites, while at the same time they were facing huge access constraints.”

The groups partnered with vaccine providers to send mobile clinics to some of these vaccine deserts and began an all-out canvassing effort, borrowing the tools of a political campaign to encourage people to get shots. Volunteers ultimately made 79,000 phone calls, delivered vaccine information to 17,000 doors and helped book 4,500 vaccine appointments. “Particularly in rural areas, we have seen the vaccination gap close considerably,” Dr. Bustamante said.

Geospatial data is also critical for logistics. Carto, a cloud-based platform for analyzing geospatial data, has helped dozens of logistics companies around the world optimize their vaccine storage and transportation networks to get the shots distributed more quickly and efficiently, said Luis Sanz, the company’s chief executive.

And in Clackamas County in Oregon, G.I.S. data has become the backbone of efforts to vaccinate people who are homebound. “Because we are a large county with somewhat rural areas, we do have some transportation issues and access is a challenge for many of our residents,” said Kim La Croix, a public health program manager for the county. “Those mass vaccination sites were just not accessible to homebound seniors and homebound people with mental, developmental or physical disabilities.”

Understand the State of Vaccine Mandates in the U.S.

When residents call or email the county to request an at-home vaccination, staff members log their location, which pops up on a digital map. Then, when assigning specific appointment slots, they review the map, which displays the number and type of vaccines that have been requested across the county. The goal is to reduce nurses’ travel time, maximize the number of shots they give in a day and to minimize waste, by ensuring that the number of doses a nurse gives in a shift matches the number of doses in a vial.

In low and middle-income countries, basic geospatial data — about how many people need to be vaccinated and where they live — has been critical to the success of prior mass vaccination campaigns. About a decade ago, for instance, government officials and global health experts realized that polio vaccination teams in northern Nigeria were using inaccurate, hand-drawn maps.

“There were missing settlements, wrong settlement names,” said Emilie Schnarr, the Nigeria project manager for the Geo-Referenced Infrastructure and Demographic Data for Development, or GRID3, program. “And that was one of the reasons children were being missed.”

Credit…Inuwa Barau et al., Journal of Infectious Diseases

Without reaching these children, the highly contagious polio virus was likely to continue circulating. So in the years that followed, the Nigerian government, in partnership with several global health organizations, used satellite imagery and local field teams to create detailed, high resolution maps, filling in missing buildings, settlements, and local points of interest.

The maps helped Nigeria eradicate polio, which the country finally achieved last year. And GRID3, which grew out of these efforts, recently distributed updated maps to local officials across Nigeria, who are using them to help plan and track their Covid-19 vaccination campaigns.

They’re not alone. In March, five organizations that specialize in geographic data and information management — Alcis, CartONG, Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team, iMMAP and MapAction — joined forces to launch the Geographic Information Management Initiative for Covid-19 Vaccine Delivery. Their goal is to help 15 low-income countries, including Haiti, Sudan and Bangladesh, fill gaps in their geospatial data and then harness that information to get vaccines out to their residents.

The work, the say, will be of use not just for this pandemic, but for the delivery of all sorts of essential services, ensuring that local health authorities know where their citizens live and can help them meet their needs.

“To be on the map is to be acknowledged,” said Ivan Gayton, the senior humanitarian adviser to the Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team. “Every community in the world should be able to put themselves on the map.”

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Health

White Home Dispute Exposes Fb Blind Spot on Misinformation

“The suggestion that we did not allocate resources to combat Covid misinformation and aid vaccine roll-out is simply not supported by the facts,” said Dani Lever, a Facebook spokeswoman. “With no standard definition of vaccine misinformation and with both false and true content (often shared by mainstream media) that may discourage vaccine adoption, we focus on the results – we measure whether people using Facebook have Covid Accept -19 vaccines. ”

Facebook executives, including CEO Mark Zuckerberg, have said the company has pledged to remove Covid-19 misinformation since the beginning of the pandemic. The company said it has removed over 18 million Covid-19 misinformation since the pandemic began.

Experts investigating disinformation said the number of parts removed from Facebook wasn’t as revealing, how many were uploaded to the site, or what groups and pages people saw misinformation spreading.

“You have to open the black box that represents your content ranking and content amplification architecture. Take that black box and open it for review by independent researchers and the government, ”said Imran Ahmed, executive director of the Center for Countering Digital Hate, a nonprofit dedicated to combating disinformation. “We don’t know how many Americans have been infected with misinformation.”

Ahmed’s group, using publicly available data from CrowdTangle, a program owned by Facebook, found that 12 people were responsible for 65 percent of the Covid-19 misinformation on Facebook. The White House, including Mr Biden, repeated that number over the past week. Facebook says it disagrees with the characterization of the “dozen of disinformation,” adding that some of their pages and accounts have been removed while others stop posting content that violates Facebook rules.

Renée DiResta, a disinformation researcher at Stanford Internet Observatory, urged Facebook to post more detailed data that would allow experts to understand how false claims about the vaccine affect certain communities in the country. The information known as “prevalence data” essentially examines how widespread a narrative is, e.g. B. What percentage of the people in a community see them on duty.

“The reason more detailed prevalence data is needed is because false claims are not spread equally among all audiences,” said Ms. DiResta. “To effectively counter certain false claims that communities see, civil society organizations and researchers need a better understanding of what is happening in these groups.”

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World News

Manitoba is now the worst sizzling spot in North America, with its hospitals overwhelmed.

The coronavirus is now spreading faster in Manitoba than any other province or state in Canada, the United States, or Mexico. Indigenous and colored people are disproportionately affected.

Figures released on Wednesday show that the Prairie Province of central Canada has reported an average of 35 new cases per 100,000 per day over the past two weeks. Canada as a whole averages 10 per 100,000 per day; the United States 7 per 100,000; and Mexico 2 per 100,000. The next higher states or provinces are Alberta with 16 and Colorado with 15.

Dr. Marcia Anderson, the leader of the Manitoba First Nation Pandemic Response Coordination Team for public health, told reporters Wednesday that from the beginning of the month through May 19, 61 percent of the cases in Manitoba were indigenous and other non-white people, despite being 37 Make up percent of the province’s population.

People of Southeast Asian descent are most disproportionately affected at 146 per 1,000 people, 13 times the rate among whites.

The surge in Covid-19 cases has overwhelmed intensive care units at Manitoba hospitals, forcing some patients to be evacuated by air to other provinces. Eighteen patients were flown to neighboring Ontario, including some to Ottawa, about 1,000 miles away. Saskatchewan, the province to the west, was due to receive an evacuated patient from Manitoba on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, a group of doctors urged the province to follow the example of Ontario and others by introducing a stay-at-home order and closing non-essential businesses. These steps have allowed other provinces to contain their recent waves of infections.

Shops in Manitoba were limited to 10 percent of capacity, and gyms and hair salons have been closed for several weeks. On Tuesday, Provincial Prime Minister Brian Pallister extended the restrictions on outdoor gatherings held last weekend. They now last until the end of this week.

Mr Pallister suggested Tuesday that the worsening situation in the province was not caused by too few restrictions, but rather by people not complying with the restrictions already in place.

“I no longer have much sympathy for people who knowingly and willingly violate public health rules,” he said.

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Health

Tips on how to Spot Despair in Younger Youngsters

Dr. Busman said she works with children who may say, “I don’t want to kill myself, but I feel so bad that I don’t know what else to do and say.”

When a child talks about wanting to die, ask what that child means and seek help from a therapist if you are concerned. Such a statement can be a real signal that a child is in need. So don’t fire them or write them down as something the child says just for attention, she said.

“Parents should take children’s symptoms very seriously,” said Jonathan Comer, professor of psychology and psychiatry at Florida International University. “In serious forms, they are snowballs over time, and starting earlier is associated with poorer lifespan outcomes.”

In a longitudinal study from 2016, Dr. Kovacs and her colleagues traced the course of depression from childhood and found recurring episodes later in life.

So, if you notice changes such as withdrawal from activity, irritability or sadness, fatigue or difficulty sleeping that last two weeks, you should consider having the child examined by someone who is familiar with mental health problems in children of this age. Start with your pediatrician who is aware of the resources available in your area.

Parents should insist on a comprehensive mental health assessment, said Dr. Busman, including capturing parent’s history, time with child, and conversation with school. An assessment should include questions about symptoms of depression as well as finding other problems, such as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder or anxiety, that may be causing the child’s distress.

Early treatment is effective, said Dr. Comer: “There is excellent evidence of family-centered treatment for depression in children – it focuses on family interactions and their effects on mood.” In children 3 to 7 years old, he said, versions of the parent-child Interaction therapy, known as PCIT, is used which essentially coach parents and help them emphasize and praise the positive about their children’s behavior.

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World News

China’s authorities bonds are in a ‘candy spot’ after unload, says portfolio supervisor

Chinese Treasuries are in a “sweet spot” after last year’s sell-off – and now offer higher yields and much lower volatility compared to US Treasuries, a portfolio manager said.

The yield on China’s 10-year government bond rose nearly 1 percentage point last year to a high of around 3.4% in November as the country was “way ahead” in getting the Covid-19 outbreak under control, said Wilfred Wee, portfolio manager at asset management firm Ninety One on Friday.

The yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds has settled at 3.2% to 3.3% in the past few weeks. In contrast, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries ranged from 1.65% to 1.75% despite the recent surge.

“I think China Fixed Income is in a (a) sweet spot for this part of the cycle,” Wee told CNBC’s Street Signs Asia.

China is clearly … way ahead in terms of treating Covid and is now facing some structural issues like debt overhang, trying to revitalize consumption, etc.

Wilfred Wee

Portfolio manager, ninety-one

“The Chinese bond market sold out last year and that was due to a better economy that came first during the crisis … I think China is clearly, and is, clearly ahead of the game when it comes to dealing with Covid. ” Now we are dealing with some structural problems like debt overhang, trying to stimulate consumption, etc., “he said.

China was the first country to report the coronavirus outbreak and the only major economy to grow over the past year when it expanded 2.3% year over year. According to estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US economy contracted 3.5% in 2020 compared to the previous year.

The prospect of better growth rates – and a pick-up in inflation – has led to higher US Treasury bond yields in recent weeks, narrowing the gap to their Chinese counterparts.

China’s “cleverness”

Still, China’s fiscal and monetary “caution” adds to the attractiveness of government bonds, said Daryl Ho, an investment strategist from Singapore Bank DBS.

“China set an example of fiscal caution by being one of the first economies to hold back further lost spending and launch debt relief efforts to curb systemic debt accumulation,” Ho said in a statement Thursday.

“This position is expected to continue through 2021, when the economy continues to recover, in stark contrast to countries that continue to spend wastefully due to poorer virus management results,” he added.

On the money front, Chinese policymakers have started tightening policies – “against the grain of restrained policies around the world,” said Ho.

With both fiscal and monetary policy in the US still loose, the Chinese yuan could appreciate, the strategist said. This would help investors protect the higher yields on Chinese bonds from currency fluctuations, added Ho.

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Health

How Scientists Are Making an attempt to Spot New Viruses Earlier than They Trigger Pandemics

In the summer, Dr. Michael Mina signed a contract with a cold storage company. With many of its restaurant customers closed, the company had freezers available. And Dr. Mina, an epidemiologist at Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, had half a million vials of plasma made from human blood come to his laboratory from around the country. The samples come from the carefree days in January 2020.

The vials that are now in three huge freezers in front of Dr. Mina’s laboratory are at the center of a pilot project for what he and his staff call the Global Immunological Observatory. You envision an immense surveillance system that can check blood from around the world for the presence of antibodies to hundreds of viruses at the same time. This will give scientists real-time detailed information on how many people have been infected with the virus and how their bodies have responded to the next pandemic.

It could even provide early notification, like a tornado warning. Although this surveillance system cannot directly detect new viruses or variants, it can show when large numbers of people are beginning to gain immunity to a particular type of virus.

The human immune system records the pathogens it has previously hit in the form of antibodies that fight against them and then stay lifelong. By testing for these antibodies, scientists can get a snapshot of what flu viruses you had, which rhinovirus pierced you last fall, even if you had respiratory syncytial virus as a kid. Even if an infection had never made you sick, this diagnostic method called serological tests would detect it.

“We’re all like little recorders,” said Dr. Mina to track viruses without even realizing it.

This type of immune system display is different from a test that looks for an active viral infection. The immune system starts producing antibodies one to two weeks after an infection starts. So the serology is retrospective, looking back at what you caught. Closely related viruses can also produce similar responses, producing antibodies that bind to the same types of viral proteins. This means that carefully designed assays are required, for example to differentiate between different coronaviruses.

But serology reveals things virus testing doesn’t, said Derek Cummings, an epidemiologist at the University of Florida. With a large database of specimens and clinical details, scientists can see patterns in how the immune system reacts in someone without symptoms compared to someone who has difficulty clearing the virus. Serology can also tell before an outbreak begins whether a population has robust immunity to a particular virus or whether it is dangerously low.

“You want to understand what has happened in a population and how well that population is prepared for future attacks from a particular pathogen,” said Dr. Cummings.

The approach could also detect events in the viral ecosystem that would otherwise go unnoticed, said Dr. Cummings. For example, the 2015 Zika outbreak was discovered by doctors in Brazil who noticed a group of babies with unusually small heads who were born seven to nine months after their mothers were infected. “A serological observatory might have picked this up beforehand,” he said.

Serological tests are often small and difficult to perform because they require blood draws from volunteers. For several years now, Dr. Mina and his colleagues came up with the idea of ​​a large and automated monitoring system using sample residue from routine laboratory tests.

“Had we set it up in 2019, when this virus hit the US, we would have had instant access to data that would have enabled us to see it floating around, for example, in New York City without doing anything else,” said Dr. Said Mina.

Updated

Apr. 15, 2021, 5:07 p.m. ET

Although the observatory could not have identified the new coronavirus, it would have detected an abnormally high number of infections from the coronavirus family, including those that cause colds. It may also have shown that the new coronavirus interacted with the patient’s immune system in unexpected ways, causing tell-tale markers in the blood. This would have been a signal to start genetic sequencing of patient samples to identify the culprit, and possibly have provided reasons to close the city earlier, said Dr. Mina. (Similarly, serology would not be able to detect the emergency of a new virus variant, such as the contagious coronavirus variants discovered in South Africa and England, before they spread elsewhere Leave standard genomic sequencing of virus test samples.)

The observatory would require agreements with hospitals, blood banks and other blood sources, as well as a system for obtaining consent from patients and donors. It also faces the problem of funding, noted Alex Greninger, a virologist at the University of Washington. Health insurance companies are unlikely to pay the bill, as serological tests are typically not used by doctors to treat people.

Dr. Mina estimated the observatory would cost about $ 100 million to go live. He pointed out that, according to his calculations, the federal government provided diagnostics company Ellume with more than twice as much to run enough rapid Covid tests to meet American needs for just a handful of days. A pathogen observatory, he said, is like a weather forecasting system based on a variety of buoys and sensors around the world that passively reports events where and when they occur. These systems were funded by government grants and are widely appreciated.

The predictive power of serology is well worth the investment, said Jessica Metcalf, Princeton epidemiologist and member of the observatory team. A few years ago, she and her staff found in a smaller survey that immunity to measles in Madagascar was threateningly low. In fact, there was an outbreak in 2018 that killed more than 10,000 children.

Now the half million plasma samples in Dr. Minas freezers, collected last year by plasma donation company Octopharma at sites across the country, underwent serological testing that focuses on the new coronavirus and is funded with a $ 2 million grant from Open Philanthropy. The tests had to wait for the researchers to set up a new robotic test facility and process the samples. Now they are working on their first batches.

The team hopes to use this data to show how the virus has made its way into the US week after week and how immunity to Covid has grown and changed. They also hope this will spark interest in using serology to shed light on the movement of many more viruses.

“The big idea is to show the world that you don’t have to spend big dollars doing this type of work,” said Dr. Mina. “We should let this happen all the time.”