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Business

Excessive costs, few reductions and low stock await automotive customers

Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Car shoppers hoping to cash in on Memorial Day weekend sales events may want to rein in their expectations.

On top of reduced inventory due to a shortage of microchips — key parts needed for today’s autos to operate — and unrelenting consumer demand pushing prices higher, there are fewer incentives being offered by manufacturers and dealers.

The average incentive is $2,957, down from $4,825 in May 2020 and $3,878 in May 2019, according to a new forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.

“People will be in for a bit of a surprise,” said Ivan Drury, senior manager of insights at Edmunds.com. “There will be little to no negotiation on price.

“We’re seeing more people pay sticker price or above.”

At the start of the pandemic more than a year ago, when dealerships and manufacturing plants were shut down, chipmakers pivoted to focusing on the consumer electronics industry — i.e., computers and gaming consoles — and there are still kinks in their ability to meet the renewed demand from automakers.

Some automakers have idled manufacturing plants or cut back production of certain models, or stopped including certain high-end packages — things like navigation systems or blind-spot detectors — in vehicles that typically would have them, Drury said. 

“The shortage is really kicking the legs out from under the industry,” Drury said.

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In May, an estimated 33% of vehicles are selling within 10 days of arriving at a dealership, according to new estimates from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. That compares to 18% selling that fast in May 2019.

Additionally, car shoppers may struggle to find the car they really want. To that point, 40% of car shoppers say they’re facing that problem, according to a recent survey from Cars.com.

“If you’re picky, this may not be the right time to buy,” Drury said. “But if you’re open-minded … you’ll be in a better position.”

Of course, it’s uncertain when the squeeze on inventory will lessen.

“By the end of year, things will start to improve,” Drury said. “But we’ll be nowhere near normal levels.”

The average price paid for a new car is close to $40,000, according to Edmunds.com. For used cars, it’s above $23,000. Some of the increase in prices are due to consumer preferences shifting over the last decade to pricier pickup trucks and SUVs and away from lower-priced sedans and small cars. Improved technology and safety features add to the price, as well.

Discounts are averaging about 7% or 8%, said Kelsey Mays, assistant managing editor for Cars.com. That compares to past years when that average was 10% to 12%.

Among the incentives being offered: The Chevrolet Silverado 1500, which starts at about $29,000, has a decent discount of around $4,000, depending on the trim level, Mays said. The Toyota Camry, with a starting price of about $25,000, may come with a $1,000 discount, depending on the specifics.

The silver lining to the higher cost for used cars is that trade-ins are worth more, as well. And while there may be little price negotiation for the car you’re buying, you may be able to get more for your trade-in to bring down the amount you have to finance.

“Potential wiggle room for consumers is going to be with their trade-in,” said Mays at Cars.com. “Consumers should leverage those elevated values and get the most they can.”

There are also other ways to bring down the cost of your purchase. Depending on your credit score, you may be able to find a 0% (or close to it) financing deal on a new car. Otherwise, the average interest rate paid on a five-year new-car loan is 4.12%, according to Bankrate. For a three-year used car loan, it’s 4.42%.

“Shop the interest rate,” Drury said. “That’s where savings can come from.”

If you’re picky, this may not be the right time to buy. But if you’re open-minded … you’ll be in a better position.

Ivan Drury

Senior manager of insights at Edmunds.com

Unless paying with cash, you should get preapproved for a loan from a bank or credit union. While there’s no obligation to use the preapproval, you’ll at least be armed with a comparison when the dealership offers its loan terms.

Be aware that the longer you stretch out your loan — say, for 72 or 84 months — in an effort to afford the monthly payments, the more you’ll pay in interest (unless it’s 0%) and the greater the chance that you’ll end up trading in your car for a new one before you’ve paid it off.

And in that scenario, if the trade-in value is less than what’s owed on the loan, consumers often end up rolling that “negative equity” into the loan for their next car.

If you want a brand-new car but can’t find exactly what you want, you may want to consider leasing instead of making a purchase.

“It’s not a long-term commitment … and might be better than financing something over six years that you don’t like,” Drury said.

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Business

Low cost retail levels a comeback as buyers crave ‘treasure searching’

Buyers’ reflection can be seen in a window of a TJ Maxx store in Peoria, Illinois.

Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Any doubts that shoppers would return to discounters to browse shelves in search of bargains were allayed this week when TJX Companies and Ross Stores reported their first quarter earnings.

Sales of both companies surged above analyst estimates as consumers returned to their stores to search for new outfits, shoes, luggage and housewares as the lockdowns caused by pandemics wore off.

TJX and Ross cited pent-up demand from buyers, many armed with additional stimulus dollars in the past few months, but also a desire from many people to keep looking for good deals. The so-called treasure hunt in stores could be something that many consumers are craving for more than they were before the Covid health crisis.

“We believe the appeal of our fun treasure hunt shopping experience provides consumers with a compelling reason to shop with us,” said Ernie Herrman, CEO of TJX, on a teleconference on earnings. “In-store shopping doesn’t go away.”

“We see our stores as a desirable destination for stress-relieving consumers,” said Herrman, “and also a great place to shop when they’re looking for inspiration and discovering new things that are difficult to replicate online.”

“Our business model is now getting more resonance than it was before Covid,” he said.

A year earlier, TJX had more than halved net sales and posted a net loss in the first quarter as the pandemic forced the company to temporarily close more than 4,500 stores in the US and abroad. It was a devastating blow to the company that relies on in-store purchases. TJX has an online shoppable platform for some of its brands, including TJ Maxx, but not all.

Ross also posted a loss in the year-ago period when all stores closed from March 20, 2020 through the end of the quarter.

But this week, TJX made a comeback in the first quarter as net sales jumped nearly 130% from $ 4.41 billion last year to $ 10.09 billion and, according to Refinitiv, Wall Street estimates 8, Exceeded $ 62 billion. TJX is the parent company of Marshalls and TJ Maxx.

Although stocks fell after the blowout quarterly report, it was largely due to the ongoing fighting the company is facing outside of the United States. Due to Covid, TJX has still closed around 300 stores in Canada and Europe. In the second quarter, TJX forecast that its Canadian and European locations would remain closed for 17% and 7%, respectively, of the period.

TJX shares are down around 1% since the start of the year.

A pedestrian walks past a now hiring sign at the Ross Dress For Less store in San Rafael, California on April 2, 2021.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

Ross revenue in the first quarter more than doubled to $ 4.52 billion, compared to $ 1.84 billion a year ago. That surpassed Wall Street’s estimates for $ 3.87 billion.

CEO Barbara Rentler said the company is particularly optimistic about its chance to gain market share from the growing number of retail store closures and bankruptcies that have occurred in recent years. In addition to his business with Ross Dress for Less, Ross also owns DD’s discounts.

For the full fiscal year ending January 29, 2022, Ross predicts comparable revenue growth of between 7% and 9% compared to 2019.

Ross stock has fallen less than 1% since the start of the year.

“We still expect a sequel [market] Stock gains who believe that off-price gains are winning because they don’t have e-commerce, not in spite of everything, “said Simeon Siegel, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets.

It is true that these companies faced more problems than other retailers during the pandemic due to their lack of online presence. The off-price business has traditionally been focused on the store experience, not the internet. Ross does not have an ecommerce site. The discounter chain Burlington Stores phased out its website in early 2020.

But now that consumers are regaining the freedom and confidence to leave the home and store, it may not matter so much.

“Hunting for a bargain and finding a bargain has returned with a little vengeance,” said Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail, in an interview. “I think the value segment could actually find itself with a really good influx of customers.”

The positive results from TJX and Ross caused the Telsey Advisory Group to raise its expectations ahead of Peer Burlington’s earnings report, which is expected on May 27.

For the first quarter of 2021, Telsey now expects Burlington to post earnings per share of $ 1, after a previous forecast of 62 cents. Net sales grew around 127% year over year to $ 1.81.

While maintaining an outperform rating on Burlington shares, the company raised its target price from $ 320 to $ 370 in a statement to clients on Friday. Burlington stock closed at $ 321.44 on Thursday, up 22% year over year.

The department store chain Nordstrom, which operates the off-price chain Nordstrom Rack, will also publish its quarterly results after the bell on Tuesday.

– CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

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Business

Odometer Rollbacks: A Exhausting-to-Spot Nuisance for Automotive Consumers

A web search for “Vehicle Mileage Correction” found a number of companies that offer rollback services. Companies, at least superficially, advise against illegal tampering, but that doesn’t mean they won’t. One’s website states: “We urge all customers who use mileage adjustment services to have a legitimate cause for concern as it is illegal to change the mileage of your car and not give this information to potential buyers.”

The kilometer adjustment costs US $ 120 at one location. The instrument cluster must be removed and sent to the supplier, which will change the reading and send it back.

The mileage can also be changed using a tool that plugs into the OBD2 connector – a connector that allows mechanics to read service codes that report faulty components.

To see how difficult it could be to cut vehicle miles, I bought a $ 120 rollback tool – the most affordable of those on eBay – to try it out.

The device was for GM vehicles, so I tested it on a 2014 Equinox. The tool is only used to change the reading on an odometer. After switching on, a screen with the label “Cluster Calibrate” is displayed.

The tool correctly read the odometer reading as 78,624 kilometers, or approximately 48,855 miles, but two attempts to reset the odometer were unsuccessful. Tampering may be relatively straightforward, but it appears to require quality equipment. After testing, we disabled and discarded the tool as recommended by a police officer.

There are ways to detect tampering with the odometer, although it is not child’s play. For example, checking the frequently touched parts of the vehicle for excessive wear can provide clues as to the actual mileage. The pedals are good indicators: be suspicious of those in a car with moderate mileage, e.g. B. 45,000, have extreme wear or, since the pedals can be changed, show no wear. Both could indicate something wrong. Also, check out the inside of the door handles, steering wheel, armrests, and anything else that is regularly touched.

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Business

Value hikes forward, however client corporations hope customers will not discover

Shoppers search for items at a Costco wholesale store on August 4, 2020 in Colchester, Vermont.

Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images

Inflation is coming.

Look no further than Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble’s plans to hike prices this week to offset rising raw material costs. The cost of raw materials, which range from lumber to resin, is rising, and companies are taking steps to protect profits.

The price increases follow a year of increasing demand for a variety of items, from paper towels to peanut butter jars. Sales of packaged consumer goods rose 9.4% to $ 1.53 trillion last year, according to the Consumer Brands Association. Many manufacturers withdrew advertising and promotions to keep up with demand and gain market share without much marketing.

James Knightley, chief economist at ING International, predicts consumer prices will continue to rise in the near future, up nearly 4% year over year by May. The consumer price index, which indicates how much US consumers pay for a shopping cart, rose 2.6% in March compared to the same period last year, according to the Department of Labor.

The stocks are “too low”.

Low inventory levels help companies improve their pricing power, he said.

“According to the Institute for Supply Management, the latest survey found that 40% of manufacturers say their customer inventories are” too low, “” Knightley said. “This is further evidence that corporate pricing power is increasing.”

Food industry analyst Phil Lempert said numerous factors have increased costs for farmers who pick produce, factories that make packaged consumer goods, and meat packers who process beef, pork and chicken. The ports are congested, the truck drivers are scarce and the food workers have to try to distance themselves socially. That makes it harder to keep up with demand and ship items, from cereals to Italian cheeses, worldwide.

Price increases are secret

Moody’s analyst Linda Montag said she does not see higher prices as a competitive advantage as all consumer businesses face higher raw material costs. In addition to Coke and P&G, PepsiCo, Kimberly-Clark, General Mills and JM Smucker have dealt with price increases. And consumers may not even realize they are paying more for diapers or soda.

“Consumer companies across the board are very adept at implementing price increases without having to forego price increases of five to 10%,” Montag said in an interview.

Some of these methods include using new packaging, selling smaller packaging for the same price, or offering promotions that lower the price until consumers are used to the higher sticker price. Hedging positions also give some manufacturers such as Coke and Pepsi more flexibility to gradually increase their prices, as they do not feel the effects of higher raw material costs for several quarters.

More cash in consumers’ pockets means less risk

Price increases always carry the risk that the demand for these products will decrease. However, Moody’s analyst Chedly Louis said she doesn’t expect consumers to resort to private label products because consumers trust bigger brands during the crisis. This behavior is expected to last longer.

“There is potential for consumers to move to cheaper, lower margin products within P & G’s product portfolio. It’s still P&G, but it’s cheaper,” said Louis.

Many consumers also have more cash in their wallets from doing government stimulus checks and years without travel, sports games, and fine dining.

Not all companies have the same flexibility to raise prices. Piper Sandler downgraded Kraft-Heinz shares on Friday, citing the company’s relatively weak pricing power as the reason for the decision. Analyst Michael Lavery wrote that the company’s pricing power lags behind that of peers like General Mills, Mondelez, and Hershey, so rising prices could hurt demand.

Discounts are rare

Most retailers will pass the higher prices on to consumers. Lempert said grocers are juggling more expensive services like online grocery delivery or roadside collection, leaving little margin for profit margins to absorb higher grocery costs.

Grocery costs had already risen as retailers offered fewer discounts while shoppers cleared shelves last spring and bought more cooking utensils than usual in the months that followed. Phil Tedesco, vice president of Retail Intelligent Analytics at NielsenIQ, said that in a typical month, 31.5% of units will be sold through promotions. In March, only 28.6% of the units were sold through promotions.

“This has resulted in fewer opportunities for shoppers to take advantage of the in-store sale, and as a result, the total cost of food products has increased slightly,” he said.

JP Morgan analyst Ken Goldman wrote in a note to customers Monday that higher prices will help grocers, especially given tough comparisons with last year’s skyrocketing demand.

“Too much inflation is bad for grocers, but a gradual 2-3% (roughly the percentage that producers have to go through) with a shift in the mix towards higher-priced products is likely to help a lot right now,” he said.

– CNBC’s Melissa Repko contributed to this report.

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Business

How manufacturers woo on-line grocery buyers

Cure Hydration founder and CEO Lauren Picasso had to find creative ways to get the company’s fruit-flavored products into shoppers’ baskets due to the pandemic.

Source: Cure Hydration

The happy break from Cure Hydration came at an odd time.

Amazon-owned Walmart, CVS, and Whole Foods carried the startup’s fruit-flavored hydration powder during the pandemic. However, boxes and packets of the electrolyte drink were often left in the back of stores as busy workers tried to replenish the shelves with high-demand items like hand sanitizer and paper towels. The main seller, offering free samples at sporting events like triathlons or after class in gyms, stalled. Customers didn’t discover the brand when shopping online or didn’t see the brand as they raced down the aisles on trips to the store.

Instead, Lauren Picasso, founder and CEO of Cure Hydration, decided to try a different strategy to get their products into the shopping baskets: free samples tucked away in Walmart’s roadside pick-up orders.

“As an emerging brand, we wanted to find a way to reach customers who knew they weren’t browsing stores as often as they used to,” she said.

She said the samples increased sales, cost less, and were easier to scale in about 1,000 stores.

Add a sample to the list of pandemic-related changes that may persist. As more grocery shoppers use roadside pickup and delivery, consumer goods companies have had to experiment with new ways to get their products in front of people. Large retailers are trying to capitalize on rising demand by charging brands for access to their customers and data they’ve gathered about their preferences – while delighting customers with freebies.

The Walmart + home screen on a laptop in Brooklyn, New York on Wednesday, November 18, 2020.

Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images

One way to make money

For years, consumer goods companies have been paying retailers for prime real estate in stores that help them grab customer attention – like end caps, a product display at the end of an aisle. That equation has changed as more shoppers check their boxed purchases in a store’s parking lot after ordering them online.

Online grocery sales in the US rose 54% in 2020 and are projected to exceed $ 100 billion for the first time this year, according to eMarketer. The research firm said these habits will last the pandemic as shoppers see it as a more convenient way to shop even after vaccination. By next year, eMarketer expects more than half of the US population to be online grocery shoppers. It is estimated that online grocery sales will account for 11.2% of total U.S. grocery sales by 2023.

Walmart’s U.S. e-commerce sales increased 79% year over year in the past fiscal year. This is due to food orders but has not yet made a profit.

Sampling is a way of making money for Walmart. The retailer started a collection and delivery sampling program in 2014, but it’s gaining attention as more customer traffic shifts to the parking lot. The retailer charges businesses when their product is added to a curb or delivery order.

Walmart is looking for new sources of income as it creates additional costs associated with online ordering, such as buying and selling items online. B. Picking grocery orders from the shelves and shipping purchases to customers. At a recent investor meeting, Doug McMillon, CEO of Walmart, said he wanted to use his reach as the world’s largest retailer to grow other businesses, including advertising. He said it wants to monetize the data it collects on buyers.

Brands of all sizes

Even the big brands are taking note. General Mills has increased the number of samples paid for roadside collection at retailers like Walmart, Kroger and Target.

Jay Picconatto, director of brand commerce marketing at General Mills, said sampling at grocery collection was “something we wouldn’t even have touched two years ago or 18 months ago.” But when retail traffic collapsed last spring and retailers restricted the in-store demos, he said the company had sneaked in aggressively.

For example, some Walmart shoppers may have received a sample of Old El Paso taco seasoning with recipe cards all about Cinco de Mayo. Walmart handed out its Annie’s Fruit Snacks and Bunny Grahams at a Walmart drive-in movie event.

“Then we found, hey, it works and we actually like what happens,” he said. As more shoppers pick up groceries from the roadside, he said, “It’s a place where we want to keep playing.”

Alvis Washington, Walmart’s vice president of marketing, store design, innovation and experience, said its sampling program can help brands connect with the right customers. Personalization of the samples a customer receives is an important goal.

It can also be used to build customer loyalty with Walmart, Washington said. Some of its store parking lots have been turned into drive-in theaters and trick-or-treating sites. A special Mother’s Day event was held at a store near headquarters in Arkansas. It lit the sky above several stores for a drone show while on vacation.

At each event, the participants were surprised with a bag of samples. Washington said the company plans to roll this out to other Walmart and Sam’s Club stores. He described it as a “triple win” – making Walmart a more attractive shopping destination, providing a fun activity for customers, and enabling suppliers to “bring their new and innovative products to customers”.

He said Walmart could start charging an insertion fee for the pouch bags, as it does with its roadside sample collection business model, and the companies would cover the cost of the products.

Walmart also tested a welcome box for customers who join Walmart +, the subscription service that launched this fall. Each contains a Walmart + branded shopping bag and product samples. He said the retailer is expanding the program and plans to tailor the box more closely to customer preferences in the future.

A worker delivers groceries to a customer’s vehicle outside of a Walmart Inc. store in Amsterdam, New York on Friday, May 15, 2020.

Angus Mordant | Bloomberg via Getty Images

More for the money

Picasso said the new approaches to product discovery are simpler and cheaper. On a good day, she said, an in-store demo handed out about 300 samples – which cost about 50 cents per sample, including the fee for reserving space in a store and filling it. She said the cost of including a sample in a roadside pick-up order or a pouch bag varies by retailer, but is typically between 10 and 30 cents each.

“It’s much more economical to get into people’s hands in other ways,” she said.

Picasso said the company is retesting demo stations in some Whole Foods stores with a pandemic. Each pack of powder is individually wrapped, and users can take a cane and branded bottled water with them to safely try the product at home.

For other foods and beverages, however, she said the “ick” factor could outlast the pandemic as shoppers remain germ-conscious and don’t want to eat a chopped up granola bar.

Additionally, retailers are becoming increasingly sophisticated, allowing companies to add samples to some roadside pick-up orders, rather than others, based on a customer’s purchase history – a more focused approach than relying on the right strangers to come over and pick up a sample.

General Mills will continue to pay for shop displays, Picconatto said. However, he said the pandemic has changed “how we think about the balance between in-store levers and online levers” – especially as e-commerce accounts for a higher percentage of total sales.

“Ultimately, what is really important to us is getting on that shopping list,” he said.