Tag: Severe

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Fauci warns extra extreme Covid variant might emerge as U.S. instances close to 100,000 each day

Fauci warns more severe Covid variant could emerge as U.S. cases near 100,000 daily

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, listens during a Senate hearing on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions in the Dirksen Senate office building in Washington, DC, the United States, on July 20, 2021.

Stefani Reynolds | Reuters

Dr. Anthony Fauci, Senior Medical Advisor to the White House, warned that a more severe variant of Covid could emerge as the U.S. average of daily new cases is now nearing 100,000 per day, exceeding the transmission rate last summer, before vaccines were available.

Fauci said in an interview with McClatchy published on Wednesday evening that the US could be “in trouble” if a new variant overtakes Delta, which already has a viral load 1000 times higher than the original Covid strain.

Delta has turned the U.S. response to the pandemic on its head as it has been shown to infect even people who are vaccinated. Moderna warned Thursday that breakthrough infections are becoming more common as the Delta variant continues to spread.

However, vaccines still offer strong protection against serious illness and death, and the vast majority of new infections occur in unvaccinated individuals. Moderna, for example, said Thursday that the booster shot it is developing creates a robust immune response against Delta.

Fauci warned in the interview that the US is “very happy” to have vaccines that have been proven against the variants, suggesting that if even heavier strains emerge, this may not be the case.

“If another shows up who has just as high transferability but is also much more severe, we could really get into trouble,” Fauci told McClatchy. “People who don’t get vaccinated mistakenly think it’s just about them. But it’s not. It’s about everyone else too.”

The US reports a seven-day average of nearly 94,000 new cases as of Aug. 4, up 48% from a week, according to Johns Hopkins University. Separate from the average, the US actually topped 100,000 new cases a day on Monday and Tuesday.

Fauci predicted that the total number of new cases could eventually reach between 100,000 and 200,000 cases per day as the Delta variant spreads.

The recent surge in Covid has hit unvaccinated people the hardest, and Fauci said there are around 93 million eligible, unvaccinated people nationwide.

“You protect the vulnerable targets, who are unvaccinated people, by vaccinating them,” Fauci said at a briefing at the White House Thursday morning. “And when you do that, you are very, very severely blocking the development of variants that could be problematic.”

“If we do this in the immediate, medium and long term, and do the mitigation now, we will reverse the delta rise,” added Fauci.

When asked if the vaccines still prevent 99% of Covid deaths and 95% of hospital admissions, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky suggests that this conclusion is based on data from January to June. The CDC is working to update these [figures] in the context of the delta variant, “she said.

In a series of interviews conducted by CNBC in July, several health officials reiterated Fauci’s concern about the emergence of a new variant. Dr. Stephen Morse, professor of epidemiology at Columbia University’s Irving Medical Center, said in an email that “the cycle of new variants repeats itself as long as the virus infects people and circulates in the population, opening up opportunities for the virus to develop.” “. . “

“I would be very surprised if Delta were last in line,” said Morse.

And Dr. Barbara Taylor, dean and professor of infectious diseases at UT Health San Antonio, added that future variants “that increase transmission will have the advantage” as things move forward.

“As long as we have an active spread of disease around the world, we will continue to see new variants because we give the virus the opportunity to evolve,” Taylor said in an email.

Although vaccinations are well below pandemic highs, the U.S. reports an average of about 677,000 daily vaccinations for the past week through Wednesday, up 11% from the previous week, according to CDC data. The country peaked in mid-April with a reported average of 3 million vaccinations per day, but the rate of first doses being given has increased in recent weeks, driven by states with severe outbreaks and low vaccination rates.

President Joe Biden said in May that he wanted 70% of the eligible population to receive at least one dose of vaccine by July 4th. The US reached its destination on Monday, CDC data showed, about a month late.

– CNBC’s Nate Rattner contributed to this report.

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California shuts down main hydroelectric plant amid extreme drought

California shuts down major hydroelectric plant amid severe drought

In this aerial view, houseboats sit on Lake Oroville at low tide as the California drought emergency worsens in Oroville, California on July 25, 2021.

Robyn Beck | AFP | Getty Images

SANTA MONICA, Calif. – California closed a large hydropower plant on Lake Oroville when the water level fell near the minimum required to generate electricity, state water authorities said.

It is the first time since the power plant opened in 1967 that the state has shut down the Hyatt power plant due to a lack of water.

The blackout could trigger even more blackouts this summer as the state grapples with a historic drought and record-breaking heat waves.

Officials said the record low water level at Lake Oroville, an artificial water reserve in Northern California, was due to the drought aggravated by climate change.

Though California is experiencing constant drought, climate change has fueled high temperatures and arid soils, which significantly reduced water runoff to the reservoirs this spring, resulting in the lowest levels ever recorded at Lake Oroville, officials said Thursday.

“This is just one of many unprecedented impacts we are experiencing in California as a result of our climate-induced drought,” Karla Nemeth, director of the state’s water resources division, said in a statement.

Nemeth said the department anticipated the shutdown and planned a loss of water and network management. Officials have warned that the facility will no longer be able to generate electricity if the water level drops below 640 feet above sea level.

Dry land is visible in a section that is usually underwater on the shores of Lake Oroville, which is the second largest reservoir in California and has a capacity of nearly 35, according to daily reports from the state Department of Water Resources near Oroville, California % hat, 06/16/2021.

Aude Guerrucci | Reuters

Lake Oroville’s water levels are expected to reach 620 feet above sea level by the end of October. Nemeth said the state’s water board was working to “save as much water as possible”.

Although the facility is no longer generating electricity, officials said they will dump some water from the dam into the Feather River to help maintain the river’s temperature requirements.

Governor Gavin Newsom urged California residents in July to reduce household water use by 15% in order to maintain water supplies. Network operators have also urged residents to limit electricity usage to avoid blackouts as forest fires scorched the state, including the Dixie Fire, which has been burning for more than three weeks and decimated the gold rush town of Greenville.

“Falling reservoir levels are another example of why it is so important for all Californians to conserve water,” said Nemeth.

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Health

Pfizer-BioNTech’s vaccine will get barely weaker over time, firm knowledge exhibits, however stays robust in stopping extreme illness.

Pfizer-BioNTech’s vaccine gets slightly weaker over time, company data shows, but remains strong in preventing severe disease.

The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine’s effectiveness wanes slightly over time, according to newly released data from the companies, but remains strong in preventing severe disease. With coronavirus cases surging again in many states, the findings may influence the Biden administration’s deliberations about delivering a booster shot.

The vaccine had a sky-high efficacy rate of about 96 percent against symptomatic Covid-19 for the first two months, the study showed, but then declined about 6 percent every two months after that, falling to 83.7 percent after six months. Against severe disease, its efficacy held steady at about 97 percent. The data was posted online on Wednesday and has not been published in a scientific journal.

Despite the decline, the data confirm that the vaccine gives potent protection against Covid-19. Still, the study raises questions about how much protection two doses will provide in the months to come. Adding to these concerns is the rise of the Delta variant, which makes vaccines somewhat less effective against infection. The variant became dominant only after the study ended. But recent studies have also shown that vaccines remain strongly protective against the worst outcomes of Covid-19 caused by the Delta variant.

The findings come from 42,000 volunteers in six countries who participated in a clinical trial that Pfizer and BioNTech began last July. Half of the volunteers got the vaccine while the other half got a placebo. Both groups received two shots spaced three weeks apart. The researchers compared the number of people in each group who developed symptoms of Covid-19, which was then confirmed by a P.C.R. virus test.

When the companies announced their first batch of results, the vaccine showed an efficacy against symptomatic Covid-19 of 95 percent. In other words, the risk of getting sick was reduced by 95 percent in the group that got the vaccine compared to the group that got the placebo.

That result — the first for any Covid-19 vaccine — brought an exhilarating dose of hope to the world in December when it was riding what had been the biggest wave of the pandemic. Since then, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has made up the majority of shots that Americans have received, with more than 191 million doses given so far, according to the Centers for Disease Control.

After the first analysis, the Pfizer and BioNTech researchers continued to follow the volunteers. The research became more challenging as time passed, because volunteers who got the placebo could ask to get the vaccine once it was authorized in their country.

Understand the State of Vaccine Mandates in the U.S.

For the new study, the researchers followed the volunteers for six months after vaccination, up to a cutoff date of March 13. Looking over that entire period, the researchers estimated the vaccine’s efficacy at 91.5 percent against symptomatic Covid-19. (The study did not measure the rate of asymptomatic virus infections.)

But within that period, the efficacy did gradually drop. Between one week and two months after the second dose, the efficacy was 96.2 percent. In the period between two and four months, the efficacy fell to 90.1 percent. And between four months and six months, the efficacy hit 83.7 percent.

Each estimate came with a margin of uncertainty. But over the six months of the trial, there was a clear decline in efficacy.

The new study comes on the heels of data from Israel suggesting that the Pfizer-BioNTech’s protection may be waning there. But experts have pushed back against a rush to approving a booster there. The data have too many sources of uncertainty, they say, to make a precise estimate of how much effectiveness has waned. For example, the Delta-driven outbreak hit parts of the country with high vaccination rates first and has been hitting other regions later. “Such an analysis is still highly uncertain,” said Doron Gazit, a physicist at Hebrew University who analyzes Covid-19 trends for the Israeli government.

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Pfizer Covid vaccine 39% efficient in Israel, prevents extreme sickness

Pfizer Covid vaccine 39% effective in Israel, prevents severe illness

People will be given a dose of the Pfizer BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine at a Covid-19 mass vaccination center on Rabin Square in Tel Aviv, Israel on Monday January 4, 2020.

Kobi Wolf | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine is only 39% effective in Israel, where the Delta variant is the dominant strain, but still offers strong protection against serious illness and hospitalization, according to a new report from the country’s health ministry.

The efficacy figure, based on an unspecified number of people between June 20 and July 17, is down from a previous estimate of 64% two weeks ago and is in conflict with data from the UK that showed the Vaccination was 88% effective against symptoms, disease caused by the variant.

However, the two-dose vaccine still works very well in preventing serious illness, showing 88% effectiveness against hospitalization and 91% effectiveness against serious illness, according to Israeli data released Thursday.

“We have to keep in mind that these vaccines can become less effective over time,” said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, professor of infectious diseases at the University of Toronto.

He stressed that the syringes are still highly effective in preventing serious infections and helping hospital systems not get overwhelmed in the colder months. “We are still in the Covid era and anything can happen,” he said.

“We have to be prepared and we have to be agile that at some point people will need a booster,” he added. “This close monitoring, which is happening in places like Israel, the UK and other parts of the world, will be very helpful in moving policy forward when and when we need boosters.”

The Delta variant, which is already present in more than 104 countries, worries US health officials as they detect more breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated people, even though they are milder.

The Chief Medical Officer of the White House, Dr. Anthony Fauci said people who are fully vaccinated should consider wearing masks indoors as a precaution against the rapidly spreading variant in the US

“Of course we don’t want to see that,” said Fauci on Wednesday, referring to the so-called breakthrough infections. “This virus is very different from the viruses and variants that we have previously experienced. It has an exceptional ability to transmit from person to person.”

Dr. Paul Offit, who advises the FDA on Covid vaccines, said that while the vaccines still offer great protection against serious illness and death, they may not work as well against mild cases or the transmission of the disease to others.

He urged more Americans to get vaccinated, saying Delta was a highly contagious virus and the vaccinations would help people get seriously ill. Currently, less than half of the US population is fully vaccinated, according to data compiled by the CDC.

“This is rich and fertile soil for the virus to continue to reproduce and keep creating variants that may become increasingly resistant to vaccines or natural infections,” he said.

The report from Israel, which began vaccinating its people before many other countries, is likely to back up the arguments made by drug manufacturers that people will eventually need to be given a booster to protect themselves from new variants.

Pfizer said earlier this month that immunity is waning from its two-dose vaccine and is now planning to seek approval from the Food and Drug Administration for a booster dose. However, federal officials say that fully vaccinated Americans do not currently require additional vaccinations.

In a statement to CNBC, Pfizer said it remains confident that its two-dose regimen will protect against the coronavirus and its variants.

Still, it said a third dose might help after analysis from its Phase III study showed a decrease in effectiveness against symptomatic infections after four to six months.

“Initial data from a third dose of the current vaccine shows that a booster dose given at least 6 months after the second dose induces high neutralization titers against wild-type and beta that are 5 to 10 times higher than after two primary doses. “Said the company.

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There’s a ‘Extreme Blood Scarcity’ within the U.S., Purple Cross Says

There’s a ‘Severe Blood Shortage’ in the U.S., Red Cross Says

As many Americans return to prepandemic lifestyles, hospitals are facing a new issue: a desperate need for blood.

Over the past few months, hospitals have seen a rise in trauma cases, organ transplants and elective surgeries, prompting a national blood shortage, the American Red Cross said last week.

The lack of blood is so great that some hospitals are pumping the brakes on the pace of elective surgeries and “delaying crucial patient care,” until blood supply levels rebound, Chris Hrouda, president of Red Cross Biomedical Services, said in a statement.

“The Red Cross is currently experiencing a severe blood shortage,” Mr. Hrouda said, adding that the organization was working to distribute more blood than expected over the past three months. “But we can’t do it without donors. Every two seconds, someone in the U.S. needs blood.”

The demand for blood is not new. There was also a shortage last year when blood donation centers were forced to close because of the coronavirus pandemic.

But in some ways, it seems more dire than before. During last year’s shortage, for example, Brian Gannon, chief executive of the Gulf Coast Regional Blood Center in Texas, said his organization had one or two days’ worth of Type O red blood cells, down from a normal supply of three to four days’ worth.

In recent weeks, Type O blood supply has been down to half a day’s worth, according to the Red Cross, which said there was also an “emergency need” for the donation of platelets, half of which go to patients undergoing cancer treatments.

Dr. Merlyn Sayers, president and chief executive of Carter BloodCare, based in Texas, called the need for blood a “national crisis.”

“Carter BloodCare dreads reaching the point, with blood inventories so jeopardized, that patients needing transfusion cannot be confident that the blood is there for them,” Dr. Sayers said.

The blood shortage is a result of two challenges caused by the pandemic — closing and reopening, Dr. Sayers said.

“In the first place, the pandemic, for more than a year, imposed conditions, such as social distancing, that were inimical to blood donation,” Dr. Sayers said, adding that many businesses that typically supported blood donation campaigns at workplaces had closed. “And now, with the gradual emergence from restrictions, hospital demands for blood have increased dramatically as patients who understandably avoided hospitalization for fear of Covid are presenting for treatment.”

The Red Cross said patients who did not seek care during the height of the pandemic in the United States were showing up in hospitals with “more advanced disease progression,” which in some cases requires more blood transfusions.

In addition to patients who delayed seeking treatment for fear of the virus, another possible reason for the increased demand for blood is that as cities reopen, more people are exposed to potential dangers leaving their homes.

The Red Cross said hospitals across the country had been responding to an “atypically high” rise in trauma cases and emergency room visits. The organization said it had seen demand from hospitals with trauma centers increase by 10 percent this year, compared with 2019.

“Where there’s more people on the road, there’s probably more accidents. We did quarantine for a long time,” said Cameron Palmer, a community development coordinator with the Gulf Coast Regional Blood Center in Houston. “Having more people on the road can cause more accidents, which can cause people to need more transfusions.”

The Gulf Coast Regional Blood Center is still making its collection calls, but hospitals have had a greater need for blood, Mr. Palmer said.

“It’s not really a shortage. It’s more of a usage,” he said. “It’s just that our hospitals are now asking for more than expected.”

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Firefighters put together for extreme wildfires in West after document season

Firefighters prepare for severe wildfires in West after record season

Firefighters work to stop the Loma fire from spreading outside Via del Cielo in Santa Barbara, California, USA. This image was published on May 21, 2021.

Mike Eliason | Santa Barbara County Fire Department | Reuters

From igniting controlled burns to removing vegetation, U.S. firefighters are undergoing massive preparations for a wildfire year they expect to be even worse than last year’s record season.

Fires broke out earlier this year, scorching the West as it grapples with the worst drought in the recorded history of the US Drought Monitor. Hot and dry temperatures in the preseason due to climate change, along with a high supply of dry scrub, have prepared the states for more severe and more frequent fires each year.

Firefighters in Arizona are already fighting two massive fires fueled by hot temperatures and gusty winds. Conditions are so dry that officials said firefighters fighting the fire accidentally started new fires that were started by their equipment.

California, suffering from drought and depleted water reservoirs, also had an early start to its season. A fire in May forced the evacuation of hundreds of people in western Los Angeles. Five of the six largest fires in the state’s history occurred last year and burned more than 4 million acres.

“The fire season has been extended to a full year of fire in many parts of the country,” said Bill Avey, USDA Forest Service’s National Fire and Aviation Director.

“Managing a year-long season is becoming increasingly difficult for the USDA and the entire forest fire management community,” said Avey.

Clouds of smoke rise from a flame as wildfire rages in Arizona, United States on June 7, 2021, in this image from social media.

Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management | Reuters

As the fire season becomes longer, states face the growing challenge of adequately preparing for and responding to a year-on-year increase in the number of climate change-fueled disasters.

California will have its largest fire department ever this year and has already completed dozens of fuel reduction projects such as controlled burns. The state’s largest utility company, PG&E, has also announced it could turn off electricity more often this year to help curb fire hazards in Northern California.

And earlier this month, Governor Gavin Newsom called for a record $ 2 billion budget for forest fire preparation and an expansion of the aircraft fleet to fight the fires.

California has responded to more than 2,875 forest fires that burned more than 16,800 acres since early 2021, according to Alisha Herring, a communications officer for the state fire department Cal Fire.

“This is a significant increase in both fires and hectares compared to 2020,” said Herring.

A sign will be posted next to an empty space on May 27, 2021 in Chowchilla, California.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

This year, the Forest Service has 15,000 firefighters and personnel ready to put out fires, as well as up to 34 air tankers, more than 200 helicopters and 900 engines for an unprecedented season, Avey said.

Last month, President Joe Biden said the Federal Emergency Management Agency will double the funds available to prepare cities and states for climate disasters such as fires and hurricanes from $ 500 million in 2020 to $ 1 billion this year.

But the increase in FEMA funding was less than what some disaster management experts argue to prepare for weather events. Last year, the United States had 22 disasters, each with more than $ 1 billion in record losses, according to the White House.

“Now is the time to prepare for the busiest time of year for disasters in America,” said the president after a briefing at FEMA headquarters.

Hilary Franz, Washington state commissioner for public land, said the state is preparing for a particularly heavy fire season by securing additional air resources through treaties and regional and national agreements.

Almost 85% of forest fires are due to human activity, including unsupervised debris fires, cigarettes, power tools, and arson. The risk is increased as more and more people build in wilderness areas at risk of fire. Experts have urged federal officials to better manage forests and city or state building codes that require fire-resistant materials to build homes.

“The vast majority of forest fires are caused by human activity,” said Franz. “The more people practice fire protection and avoid starting fires outdoors, the better our chances of avoiding a devastating forest fire season.”

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Experiences of Extreme Covid or Demise After Vaccination Are Uncommon, however Not Surprising

Reports of Severe Covid or Death After Vaccination Are Rare, but Not Unexpected

In the past few months, a constant headline hit has highlighted the amazing effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines in the field, particularly mRNA vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna. Studies have shown that the vaccines are more than 90 percent effective in preventing the worst outcomes, including hospitalization and death.

But alongside this good news, there have been rare reports of severe Covid in fully vaccinated people.

For example, on June 3, Napa County announced that a fully vaccinated woman who was more than a month after her second Moderna vaccination had died after being hospitalized with Covid. The over 65-year-old woman with previous illnesses had tested positive for the alpha variant identified for the first time in Great Britain.

While these cases are tragic, they are unusual – and not unexpected.

“I am very sad that she had such a serious illness that she actually died,” said Dr. William Schaffner, medical director of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases and vaccines expert at Vanderbilt University. But, he noted, “we expected the occasional breakthrough infection to occur.”

Such cases shouldn’t prevent people from getting vaccinated, scientists said. “There is no vaccine in history that has ever been 100 percent effective,” said Dr. Paul Offit, the director of the Vaccine Education Center at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. “This is your best chance to avoid serious, critical illness. But as with everything in medicine, it is not perfect. “

Severe Covid is rare in fully vaccinated people. In a paper released last month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said they had received reports of 10,262 breakthrough infections as of April 30. That’s only a tiny fraction of the 101 million Americans who have been vaccinated to that date, though the agency noted that these are likely to be a “significant minority” of breakthrough infections.

Of these groundbreaking cases, 10 percent of patients were hospitalized and 2 percent died – and in some of those cases, patients were hospitalized or died of something unrelated to Covid-19. The average age of the deceased was 82 years.

Updated

June 11, 2021, 2:36 p.m. ET

Older adults, who are at higher risk of Covid complications, are also more likely to develop breakthrough infections as they are known to build weaker immune responses to vaccines. People with compromised immune systems or other chronic health conditions may also be at increased risk.

Some of the variants – especially Beta, which was first identified in South Africa – may be more likely to evade vaccine-induced protection. But beta isn’t common in the United States right now, noted Dr. Conductor.

The alpha variant that infected the Napa County woman is highly contagious, but vaccines offer good protection against it – as well as against the original strain of the virus.

“Breakthrough infection stories, while exceptionally rare, can be confusing to the public,” said Dr. Napa County’s health officer Karen Relucio in an email. “We know that with stories like this one could be tempted to question the effectiveness of vaccines.”

But the vaccines are highly effective, she stressed. In Napa County, the breakthrough infection rate in fully vaccinated people is just 0.04 percent, she said.

Nationwide, the rate is even lower. According to the California Department of Health, there were 5,723 breakthrough cases in more than 17.5 million fully vaccinated residents as of June 2, a rate of 0.032 percent. Of these cases, only 7 percent are known to have been hospitalized and 0.8 percent to have died. In these cases, too, it is unclear whether Covid was the main cause of death.

Breakthrough infections are likely to decline as more people are vaccinated and community transmission rates decline. “The virus will find fewer and fewer people to become infected – it will be more difficult for the virus to get through the population,” said Dr. Conductor. “These are great vaccines. So that the vaccines work optimally – individually and collectively – as many people as possible must be vaccinated. “

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Teenagers Are Not often Hospitalized With Covid, however Circumstances Can Be Extreme

Teens Are Rarely Hospitalized With Covid, but Cases Can Be Severe

The researchers also counted Covid-19 hospital stays in children ages 12 to 17 from March 1, 2020 to April 24, 2021. The data comes from Covid-Net, a population-based surveillance system in 14 states that covers about 10 percent of Americans.

Updated

June 5, 2021 at 4:28 p.m. ET

The number of adolescents hospitalized with Covid-19 decreased in January and February of this year, but rose again in March and April. From January 1, 2021 to March 31, 204 young people are expected to have been hospitalized mainly for Covid-19. Most children had at least one underlying medical condition, such as obesity, asthma, or a neurological disorder.

The rate could have increased this spring due to the more contagious variants of the coronavirus floating around, as well as the reopening of schools that brought children together indoors and looser adherence to precautions like wearing masks and social distancing, the researchers said .

None of the children died, but about a third were admitted to intensive care and 5 percent required invasive mechanical ventilation. About two-thirds of adolescents admitted to the hospital were Black or Hispanic American, reflecting the greater risk the virus poses to these populations.

The researchers compared the numbers for Covid-19 to hospital admissions for flu in the same age group during the 2017-18, 2018-19, and 2019-20 flu seasons. From October 1, 2020 to April 24, 2021, adolescent hospital admission rates for Covid-19 were 2.5 to three times the rate of seasonal flu in previous years.

The data adds urgency to the drive to get more teenagers vaccinated, said Dr. Walensky, who added that she was “deeply concerned” with the numbers.

The Food and Drug Administration approved the Pfizer BioNTech coronavirus vaccine for children ages 12 to 15 on May 12. The vaccine was approved for all elderly people in December.

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Extreme Covid Is Extra Typically Deadly in Africa Than in Different Areas

Severe Covid Is More Often Fatal in Africa Than in Other Regions

People in Africa who are seriously ill with Covid-19 are more likely to die than patients in other parts of the world, according to a report published Thursday in the medical journal The Lancet.

The report, which is based on data from 64 hospitals in 10 countries, is the first comprehensive look at what is happening to critically ill Covid patients in Africa, the authors say.

The increased risk of death only applies to seriously ill people, not to everyone with the disease. Overall, the disease and death rates from Covid appear to be lower in Africa than in the rest of the world. However, if the virus spreads faster in Africa, as in other regions, these results suggest that the death toll may worsen.

Among 3,077 critically ill patients admitted to African hospitals, 48.2 percent died within 30 days, compared with a global average of 31.5 percent, according to the Lancet study.

The study was observational, which meant the researchers tracked patients’ progress but did not experiment with treatments. The work was done by a large team called The African Covid-19 Critical Care Outcomes Study Investigators.

For Africa as a whole, the death rate among seriously ill Covid patients could be even higher than the study, the researchers said, as much of their information came from relatively well-equipped hospitals and 36 percent of those facilities in hospitals were South Africa and Egypt, which had better ones Resources than many other African countries. In addition, with a mean age of 56, the patients in the study were younger than many other critically ill Covid patients, suggesting that death rates outside the study may be higher.

The other eight countries in the study were Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Libya, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger and Nigeria. Leaders from 16 other African nations had also agreed but ultimately refused to participate.

Reasons for the higher mortality rates are a lack of resources such as surge capacity in intensive care units, devices for measuring patient oxygen levels, dialysis machines and so-called ECMO devices for pumping oxygen into the bloodstream of patients whose lungs are so impaired that even a ventilator is used not enough to keep them alive.

However, the study’s authors suggested that the available resources were obviously not being used. Proning – placing patients on their stomachs to make it easier for them to breathe – was under-used and only performed on about a sixth of the patients who needed it.

Almost 16 percent of hospitals had ECMO, but fewer than 1 percent of patients offered it. Although 68 percent of the sites had access to dialysis to treat kidney failure, which is common in severe Covid cases, only 10 percent of critically ill patients received it. Half of the patients who died never received oxygen, but the study’s authors said they had little data to explain why.

A Lancet editorial by experts who were not involved in the study said, “It is common in Africa to have expensive equipment that is inoperable due to poor maintenance or a lack of skilled labor.” According to a report by Tropical Health and Education Trust from 2017, around 40 percent of medical equipment in Africa was out of order.

Another factor is that few doctors in Africa have pulmonary and critical care training that is considered essential to treating Covid patients.

As in other studies, chronic diseases such as diabetes, high blood pressure and diseases of the heart, kidneys or liver increased the risk of dying from Covid. This study was the first to involve a large proportion of HIV patients, which nearly doubled the risk of death. The report said, “Our data suggest that HIV / AIDS is a major risk factor for Covid-19 mortality.” However, the authors also said they had no data on how the severity of HIV infection was related could affect the risk.

An unexpected finding from the study was that, unlike Covid patients in the rest of the world, men in Africa are no more likely to die than women. This finding suggests that African women are at higher risk than women in other regions.

The authors suggested that women in Africa “may face barriers to access to care and limitations or prejudices in care when they are seriously ill”.

The editorial asked if new variants could cause the high mortality rate noted in the study, but also said, “This is a question that could take a long time to answer in a continent with severe sequencing deficiencies.”

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Israeli information counsel mass vaccinations led to drop in extreme Covid instances, CDC examine finds

Israeli data suggest mass vaccinations led to drop in severe Covid cases, CDC study finds

An Israeli health worker from Maccabi Healthcare Services prepares to administer a dose of the Pfizer BioNtech vaccine in Tel Aviv on February 24, 2021.

Jack Guez | AFP | Getty Images

Data from Israel, which vaccinated the vast majority of its elderly population with the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine, suggests that mass vaccination has prevented people from getting seriously ill, according to a new study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

While clinical studies have shown the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine to be 95% effective at preventing Covid-19, the Israeli data provide early insight into the vaccine’s effectiveness in an uncontrolled, real-world setting.

The study, published Friday in the CDC’s weekly report on morbidity and mortality, found that among the most vaccinated portion of the Israeli population, the percentage of patients requiring ventilation has dropped dramatically, suggesting a reduction in the serious illness.

“Taken together, these results suggest a reduced rate of severe COVID-19 after vaccination,” wrote researchers from Ben Gurion University in the Negev, Tel Aviv University and Maccabi Healthcare Services.

Israel launched its national vaccination campaign in December, prioritizing people aged 60 and over, healthcare workers and people with comorbid illnesses. By February, according to the researchers, 84% of the population aged 70 and over had been fully immunized with the Pfizer-BioNTech two-shot vaccine. Only 10% of the population under the age of 50 had been vaccinated at any one time, the researchers said.

The researchers compared the number of Covid-19 patients aged 70 and over who needed a mechanical ventilator with those under 50 who needed a ventilator. The researchers said they needed a ventilator, a medical tool that helps patients breathe, to measure severe Covid-19.

Between October and February, the number of patients aged 70 and over who needed a ventilator decreased. At the same time, the number of people under the age of 50, a generally unvaccinated population, who needed a ventilator, the study found. The country began using gunshots on mostly elderly people on December 20. A second round of shooting followed three weeks later.

The researchers noted some limitations to the study. Israel put in place a strict national stay-at-home order on Jan. 8, weeks after the vaccination campaign began, which could have resulted in a decline in seriously ill patients who would have needed ventilators. The introduction of new variants of the coronavirus could also have affected the data.

The researchers said their results are preliminary, “important evidence of the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing severe cases of COVID-19 at the national level in Israel”.

“Getting COVID-19 vaccines to eligible individuals can help limit the spread of disease and potentially reduce the incidence of serious diseases,” they write.