Categories
World News

Russia, Putin and Alexei Navalny: What occurs subsequent?

Riot police during an unauthorized rally in support of Alexei Navalny in central Moscow on February 2, 2021.

Mikhail Tereshchenko | TASS | Getty Images

The arrest of opposition leader Alexei Navalny in Russia has been widely awaited by Russian observers, but experts say what comes next will likely depend on the dynamics of the protests in support of Navalny, whether the West decides to punish Russia and how the Kremlin does responded to growing unrest in the country.

Navalny, who is widely regarded as one of Putin’s most prominent critics, was sentenced to three and a half years in prison on Tuesday for breaking parole. The allegations he and his team made were fabricated and politically motivated.

The judge said the year Navalny has already spent under house arrest (around 10 months) will be deducted from his prison sentence. Navalny’s defense team has announced that it will appeal the court ruling.

Protests against Navalny’s first imprisonment in mid-January and immediately after his return from Germany to Russia, where he had been treated for nerve agent poisoning since last summer, were carried out over the last two weekends in Russia and again outside the US on Tuesday in the Moscow Court, where the Judgment was made.

The verdict was widely condemned by Western governments, but the US and Europe did not threaten further sanctions against Russia for the time being, as both demanded the immediate and unconditional release of Navalny.

US Senator Mitt Romney, R-Utah, indicated in a tweet that further sanctions could be imposed on Russia, which is already operating under Western restrictions due to the annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and, among other things, has entered the US Meddles in 2016 elections.

Timothy Ash, a leading emerging markets strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, believes more sanctions will come.

“We may not see this promotion this week, it may take weeks / months, but I think when it comes we will be surprised by its scope / scope,” Ash said via email.

“This is not a case of a step-by-step approach, but an overall picture, a common approach to countering the Russian threat. And hit Russia hard from the start – to make it clear to Putin, we know what you’re doing, we know when you get your card we know all you understand is power, and here it is. “

Ash said he expected “a rolling approach to roll back Putin’s offensive campaign against western liberal market democracies.”

More protests?

The scale and extent of the West’s reaction against Russia remains to be seen, but this could also affect the dynamism of the pro-navalny protests in Russia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said police had the right to use harsh methods to break off protests by supporters of Navalny who had gathered outside the Moscow court where the hearing took place.

Peskov also said calls from Navalny’s allies for Russians to take to the streets after he was jailed on Tuesday were a provocation, Reuters reported. More than 1,400 supporters of Navalny in 10 cities were arrested on Tuesday, according to the OVD-Info monitoring group.

The US, Germany and France are among the Western nations that have condemned the violence against protesters in Russia and called for Navalny to be released immediately.

Russia has rejected this criticism, defended the police’s response to protests and accused Western countries of double standards.

“With regard to the events in Russia and not only in Navalny, the reporting of the West is selective and one-sided,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in a press conference on Wednesday, Tass news agency reported.

“The hysteria we heard about the Navalny trial is far exaggerated,” he added.

Daragh McDowell, Russia’s chief analyst at risk analysis firm Verisk Maplecroft, said the conviction and imprisonment of Navalny would “represent a massive blow to the opposition that has lost one of its most effective organizers and communicators.”

The movement continued to suffer as other members of the Navalny National Organization were also arrested and detained. Whether the protests can continue at their current level is unknown.

“The key question is whether the current wave of protests sparked by Navalny’s arrest has reached a point where they will support themselves and continue even if he and his team are removed from the field. The decision to imprison him , will certainly likely be hit. ” at least a short-term spike in street protests, accompanied by a corresponding increase in arrests and aggressive police brutality, “noted McDowell.

Political stalemate

Experts warn Putin of concern that the protests so far also reflect general public dissatisfaction with the Russian ruling class, widespread corruption and kleptocracy, and a decline in living standards.

McDowell said a “major cause for concern for the Kremlin should be that the protests sparked by Navalny’s arrest are more the result of longer-term social and economic stagnation … the protesters are driven less by Navalny’s political program than by them driven are a general feeling of being fed up with the status quo. “

Although there is allegedly a lack of political alternatives to Putin, whom McDowell viewed as not in immediate danger of falling, “his political regime is based less on active support than on tolerance and acceptance, and it appears that the Russian population is rapidly approaching its limits.”

Protesters hold a banner reading “FREE NAVALNY” as around 2,500 supporters of Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny protest to demand his release from Moscow prison on January 23, 2021 in Berlin.

Omer Messinger | Getty Images News | Getty Images

This sentiment was confirmed by Christopher Granville, executive director of EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, but warned of a possible “stalemate” between the Kremlin and the opposition.

“The main cause of the current political ferment in Russia is Vladimir Putin’s long reign, which is entering its final phase. Far from eliminating uncertainties (even at the expense of more acute short-term turbulence), this final is now more likely to drag on.” social tension and polarization, “he said in a note on Tuesday.

Granville said its discouraging outlook for Russia, which also negatively impacted the country’s economic growth prospects and valuations of the country’s assets, “stems from a key feature of Alexey Navalny’s challenge to Putin’s ruling establishment: stalemate.”

“The support base of either side in Russian society is too solid to allow for quick or easy victories. Removing Navalny from the board of directors, be it by murder or, as before, by imprisonment, is not a ‘solution’: far from a cult of personality being the movement he’s galvanized marks a generation change. The Putin base, still a plurality, is now cemented by rational fears of instability, “he said.

Categories
World News

Professional-Navalny Protests Sweep Russia in Problem to Putin

MOSCOW – From the frozen streets of Russia in the Far East and Siberia to the grand squares of Moscow and St. Petersburg, tens of thousands of Russians gathered on Saturday in support of imprisoned opposition leader Aleksei A. Navalny at the largest nationwide showdown in years of the Kremlin and his opponents.

The demonstrations did not immediately pose a serious threat to President Vladimir V. Putin’s rise to power. But their broad scope and the remarkable defiance shown by many demonstrators signaled widespread weariness in the face of the stagnant, corruption-torn political order that Putin had been two of For decades.

The protests began to unfold in the eastern regions of Russia, a country with eleven time zones, and they moved like a wave across the country despite a heavy police presence and a host of threatening warnings from state media to stay away.

On the island of Sakhalin, north of Japan, hundreds gathered in front of the regional government building and sang, “Putin is a thief!” The protests spread to the sub-Arctic city of Yakutsk, where it was located minus 60 degrees Fahrenheit and to rallies attended by thousands in cities across Siberia. Hours later, when night fell in Moscow, people threw the police down with snowballs and kicked a car belonging to the domestic secret service.

By late evening in Moscow, more than 3,000 people had been arrested in at least 109 cities, according to OVD-Info, an activist group that tracks arrests during protests.

Mr Navalny’s supporters claimed success and promised further protests over the coming weekend – although many directors of his regional offices had been arrested.

“If Putin believes the scariest things are behind him, he is very wrong and naive,” Leonid Volkov, a top aide to Mr. Navalny, said in a live broadcast on YouTube from an unknown location outside of Russia.

The protests came six days after Mr Navalny, a 44-year-old anti-corruption activist, was arrested on a flight from Germany on arrival in Moscow, where he had been recovering for months from poisoning by a military-grade nerve agent. Western officials and Mr Navalny have described the poisoning, which took place in Siberia in August, as an assassination attempt by the Russian state. The Kremlin denies this.

Now facing years of imprisonment, Mr Navalny urged supporters across the country to take to the streets this weekend, despite officials not allowing protests. The Russians responded with the most widespread demonstrations the nation has seen since at least 2017 – tens of thousands in Moscow and St. Petersburg, and thousands in several cities in the east, including Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, Tomsk, Omsk and the Pacific port of Vladivostok.

“There was this heavy feeling that Russian public opinion was hardened in cement, as if it was stuck in a dead, hidden ball,” said Vyacheslav Ivanets, a lawyer in the Siberian city of Irkutsk who participated in the protests. “Now I feel like the situation has changed.”

Mr Navalny, for a long time Putin’s loudest domestic critic, has used his populist touch on social media and his humorous, harsh and simple language to distinguish himself as Russia’s only opposition leader with a following in a broad cross-section of society. His status among Putin critics continued to rise in recent months as he survived the nerve agent attack and then returned to Russia despite facing almost certain arrest.

This arrest on Sunday, the demonstrators said, helped spark pent-up dissatisfaction with Putin’s economic stagnation and widespread official corruption.

But Putin’s Kremlin has outlasted protests before – and there have been few immediate indications that this time around would be any different. Russia’s state media quickly made it clear that there was no chance the Kremlin would come under pressure and condemned the protests as a nationwide “wave of aggression” that could result in prison sentences against some participants.

“Attacking a police officer is a criminal offense,” said a state television report. “Hundreds of videos were shot. All faces are on them. “

In Washington, the State Department said Saturday that it “strongly condemns the use of tough tactics against protesters and journalists” in Russia. The Russian State Department countered by alleging that the United States helped “incite radical elements” to join the unauthorized protests and that American officials were facing “serious talk” with Russian diplomats.

Some protesters admitted that despite the importance of Saturday’s protests, it would take far more people to change course in national politics. In neighboring Belarus, many more people protested for weeks against the authoritarian President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko – a close ally of Putin – without removing him.

“I’m a little disappointed, honestly,” said Nikita Melekhin, a 21-year-old nurse in Moscow. “I expected more.”

The police presented a monumental demonstration of violence in the streets, but largely avoided large-scale violence. In Pushkin Square in central Moscow, the focal point of the rally in the capital, riot police, wielding batons, repeatedly pushed the crowd in an attempt to disperse them, but avoided the use of tear gas or other more violent methods to control the crowd .

They pre-arrested most of Mr. Navalny’s best employees and arrested his wife, Yulia Navalnaya, in a protest Saturday before releasing them hours later.

However, videos circulated on social media recorded notable clashes between protesters and police – an indication of a new fearlessness among some Russians and uncertainty about what lies ahead. Protesters were seen throwing snowballs at police on several occasions, despite prosecutors having requested years of imprisonment for people who threw objects at officers.

Singing “shame” protesters in Moscow also threw snowballs at a passing government car. After it stalled, people stormed and stepped on the car owned by the Russian secret service. The driver sustained an eye injury in the attack, state news media later reported.

The state news media reported that at least 39 Moscow police officers were injured in the events on Saturday. There were also videos of officials viciously beating and kicking individual protesters, including outside the Moscow prison where Mr Navalny was incarcerated.

The question now is whether the intensity of the clashes will continue to shake the Russians – or keep them from responding to the Navalny team’s call for more protests.

Opinion polls in recent months – of uncertain value in a country saturated with state propaganda where people are often afraid to speak up – have shown that Mr Putin is not a great challenge to his popularity from Mr Navalny, whose name has never been approved was appearing on a presidential election. Mr Putin refuses to speak his name publicly.

A November poll by the Levada Center, an independent and highly respected electoral organization, found that only 2 percent of respondents named Mr Navalny as their first choice when asked who they would vote if there were presidential elections the following Sunday. Fifty-five percent named Mr. Putin.

Even so, Mr Navalny’s dramatic return to Russia last Sunday – and his video report on Putin’s alleged secret palace, viewed more than 70 million times on YouTube – raised the opposition leader’s notoriety across the country.

“I’ve never been a big believer in Navalny, and yet I understand very well that this is a very serious situation,” said Vitaliy Blazhevich, 57, a university professor, in a telephone interview about why he was working for Mr. Navalny in Khabarovsk city on the Chinese border.

“There is always hope that something will change,” said Blazhevich.

Vasily Zimin, a 47-year-old partner in a Moscow law firm, trudged through mud and said he had come to protest the rampant corruption during Putin’s reign.

“How can you say, ‘I can’t take any more of this’ while sitting on your couch?” he said.

Ivan Nechepurenko and Andrew E. Kramer reported from Moscow. Oleg Matsnev and Sophia Kishkovsky contributed to the research.

Categories
World News

Former ambassador warns expiration of key nuclear treaty with Russia would make the U.S. ‘worse off’

The Biden government has urged the renewal of the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with Russia for five years, which expires on February 5. The nuclear deal regulates and limits how many nuclear weapons each country can have. Russian officials said Friday they welcomed the news.

Michael McFaul told CNBC’s “The News with Shepard Smith” that the expiry of New START with Russia would “put the US in a worse position”.

“We would lose our ability to review, look inward and look at the Russian nuclear arsenal,” said McFaul, who served as US ambassador to Russia from 2012 to 2014. “Do you remember Ronald Reagan always saying,” Trust but check? “I say don’t trust, just check, and the new START contract allows us to do that. I think it’s the right decision by the new Biden team to renew it.”

Joel Rubin is a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Legislative Affairs, where he has worked with members of Congress on various national security issues, including nuclear safety. He agreed with McFaul and told The News with Shepard Smith that the deal would stabilize relations between the two nuclear powers.

“The Trump administration has tried to leverage the delay in the renewal of the treaty but has received nothing in return, which puts the entire treaty at risk,” said Rubin, who was also the policy director for Plowshares Fund, the country’s leading nuclear security company Foundation, endowment. “We need stability between the US and Russia, which together own more than 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons. The renewal of New START will do that.”

Relations between Moscow and the US have been shaped by massive cyberattacks against federal authorities, interference in US elections and the recent arrest of Russian opposition leader Alexie Navalny. President Joe Biden will ask his Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, to review Russia’s interference in the 2020 election, according to the Washington Post.

McFaul told host Shepard Smith that he believes the reaction against Russia will likely be sanctions, but that the Biden administration has a choice when it comes to penalties against Russia.

“The simple thing is to sanction a number of unnamed colonels, FSB, the successor group to the KGB, and tick the box,” McFaul said. “The bolder move would be to sanction some of those who make the Putin regime possible, including some economic oligarchs who support Putin.”

Rubin added that the US should also work closely with European and Asian allies to pressure Russia to change and address its internal repression and aggressive international behavior, “rather than pushing them away and easing diplomatic pressure on Russia, like the Trump administration did. “”

McFaul told Smith he wasn’t sure President Joe Biden would want to spend the political capital to toughen up on Russia as the U.S. faces domestic political issues, including Covid and an economic crisis. McFaul added, however, that he believes Biden could do both.

“I think you could run and chew gum at the same time. I think you should be able to do both at the same time, but we’ll have to wait and see what they do,” McFaul said.

Rubin told The News with Shepard Smith that the time had come for the US to be “persistent” on Russia and President Vladimir Putin.

“We should not be afraid of Moscow, nor should we go to Moscow, nor should we expect that we can improve relations between the US and Russia through the diplomacy of children’s gloves,” said Rubin.

Categories
World News

Russia Seeks to Divert Youths From Lure of Navalny Protests

The seemingly sisyphic efforts of the Russian authorities to get social networks to remove pro-navalny content, however, have made it clear what is increasingly becoming a major security gap for the Kremlin: the availability of inexpensive, fast, and mostly uncensored internet access in almost all Countries populated corner of the country’s 11 time zones.

The government has tried, and for the most part failed, to contain the internet. For example, last year ended the two-year effort to block the Telegram messaging network, a ban that users could quickly bypass.

On Friday, the Russian telecommunications authority Roskomnadzor announced that YouTube, Instagram and the Russian social network VKontakte had begun canceling “calls for children to participate in illegal mass events” on the orders of the Russian attorney general.

Facebook, which owns Instagram, denied removing content.

“We have received requests from the local regulatory authority to restrict access to certain content that encourages protest,” Facebook said in a statement. “Since this content does not violate our community standards, it stays on our platform.”

The other social networks did not immediately respond to requests for comments.

The biggest problem, the regulator said, was TikTok, the Chinese-owned app that hosts seconds-long viral videos, often musically themed. Videos tagged with the hashtag #Navalny on the network had been viewed more than 800 million times by Friday.

In a clip that was “liked” more than 500,000 times, a young woman teaching pithy English gave tips on how to sound like an American – “I’ll call my lawyer!” – when arrested during the protests.

“The highest level of activity continues on the social network,” Roskomnadzor said in a statement referring to TikTok. “New appeals appear, which in some cases are artificially spread.”

Categories
Politics

Biden nationwide safety advisor requires Russia to launch Navalny

A file photo dated September 29, 2019 shows Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny during a rally in support of political prisoners on Prospekt Sakharova Street in Moscow, Russia. Alexei Navalny is passed out in hospital after allegedly being poisoned, according to his press secretary.

Sefa Karacan | Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

WASHINGTON – President-elect Joe Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan called for the immediate release of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who was arrested at a Moscow airport on Sunday after his arrival.

The previous Sunday, Navalny flew from Berlin to Russia, where he had recovered for almost six months since being poisoned last summer. He was arrested at passport control.

Last week, Russian authorities issued an arrest warrant for Navalny alleging that he had violated the three and a half year suspended sentence he received in 2014 for embezzlement.

“Mr. Navalny should be released immediately and the perpetrators of the outrageous attack on his life must be brought to justice,” Sullivan wrote on Twitter.

The White House and State Department did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

Sullivan’s call for Navalny to be released comes days before President-elect Joe Biden takes office. Biden’s new government is expected to increase pressure on Russia.

After the poisoning of Navalny last year, Biden vowed “to work with our allies and partners to hold the Putin regime accountable for its crimes,” and accused President Donald Trump of not being tough enough.

A non-partisan group of US senators had urged the Trump administration to impose sanctions on Russia in response to the poisoning of Navalny. Trump, who is leaving office on Wednesday, did not do so.

The United Kingdom and the European Union, close allies of the United States, swiftly imposed targeted sanctions on six Russians and a government research center in October.

On the return flight to Moscow, Navalny told reporters that he was feeling great and that the trip home was “the best moment in five months.”

“I feel great. I’m finally going back to my hometown,” he said, according to a Reuters report.

Last year, Navalny was medically evacuated to Germany from a Russian hospital after falling ill after reports that something had been added to his tea. Russian doctors treating Navalny denied that the Kremlin critic had been poisoned, blaming his comatose condition for low blood sugar levels.

In September, the German government announced that the 44-year-old Russian dissident had been poisoned by a chemical agent on nerves and described the toxicological report as “clear evidence”. The nerve agent was in the Novichok family, which was developed by the Soviet Union.

Following the test results, the White House said it was “deeply concerned” by the matter and called the poisoning “utterly reprehensible.”

“The United States is deeply concerned about the results released today,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Ullyot said in a written statement at the time. “The poisoning of Alexei Navalny is completely reprehensible. Russia has used the chemical nerve agent novichok in the past,” he said, referring to the poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter in England in 2018.

The Kremlin has repeatedly denied a role in the poisoning of Navalny and Skripal.

Navalny’s arrest Sunday faces another strain on relations between European leaders and Russian President Vladimir Putin and comes while the Kremlin works to secure a gas pipeline project, Nord Stream 2, to Germany.

Categories
World News

Aleksei Navalny Says He’ll Return to Russia on Sunday

MOSCOW – Aleksei A. Navalny, the Russian opposition leader who has been recovering in Germany for months from a nerve agent attack widely believed to be carried out by the Russian state, said on Wednesday that he would return to prison on arrival this weekend despite the threat from Russia will.

Mr Navalny said on social media posts that he bought a ticket for a flight to Moscow that Sunday. His announcement that he would return came just two days after the Russian prison authorities petitioned a court to detain Mr. Navalny for violating a previous suspended sentence.

“You are doing everything to scare me,” Navalny said in an Instagram post on Wednesday, referring to the Russian authorities. “But I don’t care what you do. Russia is my country, Moscow is my city and I miss it. “

Mr Navalny was poisoned by a military-grade nerve agent in Siberia in August. He and Western officials said this was an assassination attempt by the Russian government. He fell into a coma and was flown to Berlin for treatment.

He said on Wednesday that he now believes he is well enough to return to Russia. He bought tickets from the low-cost airline Pobeda and planned to return to Moscow on Sunday.

“Come meet me!” he said.

Categories
Politics

AG William Barr says Russia behind SolarWinds hack, contradicts Trump

WASHINGTON – Outgoing Attorney General William Barr said Monday that the massive SolarWinds hack by US government agencies “certainly” appears to be Russia’s job, which President Donald Trump contradicts.

Barr identified Russia as the likely perpetrator of the cyber attack and sided with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the rest of the National Security Institute, but contradicted the president.

Barr made the remarks during an impromptu press conference just two days before he was due to leave his job.

After several days of silence over the sweeping violation of government and private sector networks, Trump downplayed the severity of the attack in two tweets over the weekend. He suggested with no evidence that it could be China, not Russia, to blame.

“The cyber hack is far bigger in the fake news media than it is in reality,” wrote Trump. “I’ve been given full information and everything is well under control. Russia, Russia, Russia is the primary chant if something happens because Lamestream is petrified, for largely financial reasons, to discuss the possibility that it could be China (it can be !). “”

Trump also suggested without evidence that the hack could have affected the election software in the November presidential election. This was the latest in a series of increasingly far-fetched conspiracy theories put forward by the president in his refusal to accept that he lost the November 3rd election.

Pompeo’s first public comments on the attack came during a radio interview on Friday night on “The Mark Levin Show”.

“This has been a very significant effort and I think it is the case that we can now say fairly clearly that it was the Russians who took part in this activity,” said Pompeo.

Several news outlets have also reported that White House officials prepared a public statement on the cyberattacks late last week, transferring responsibility for the hack directly to Russia. But at the last minute they were forbidden from releasing it.

More than a week after the first breach was reported, both U.S. government agencies and private sector companies affected by the attack are still working to get a full picture of the extent of the breach and the potential harm to U.S. cyber infrastructure and critical ones Develop information systems.

The initial investigation revealed that the breach was malicious code hidden in a software update from widely used IT management company SolarWinds. Russia has denied any involvement in the attack.

The three lead agencies responsible for investigating the attack and protecting the nation from cyber threats – the FBI, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence – announced last week that they were one have formed joint command in response to what has been termed a “major and ongoing cybersecurity campaign” against the United States.

Trump’s refusal to acknowledge either the full extent of the attack or his likely perpetrators fits his pattern over the past four years as he downplayed Russia’s malicious actions around the world.

As part of this pattern, Trump has ignored and dismissed U.S. intelligence assessments of Russia’s guilt for several major operations, particularly the 2016 cyberattacks and disinformation campaign that harmed Trump’s then-opponent Hillary Clinton.

Categories
World News

Pompeo Says Russia Was Behind Cyberattack on U.S.

They injected malware that would give them widespread access to computer systems after government agencies and corporations installed the updates. From there, they were able to build “back doors” that allowed them to come and go, steal data, and – although it does not seem to have happened yet – modify data or launch destructive attacks.

“This was a very common cybersecurity event,” said Brad Smith, president of Microsoft Corporation, in an interview on Thursday evening. “And I would argue that this is more than just espionage. It is the creation of a broad vulnerability in the supply chain that requires a different type of response. It has created a vulnerability to the world in a way that other spying techniques do not. “

Mr. Smith called it “a moment of reckoning”.

While Mr Trump began his tenure with a strong cybersecurity team in the White House, his third national security adviser, John R. Bolton, ousted them and eliminated the post of cyber czar with direct access to the president. The new National Defense Approval Act, which Mr Trump threatens to veto for other reasons, would re-create such a post. This is one of several recommendations from a non-partisan Cyberspace Solarium commission that issued a report earlier this year before the Russian attack became known.

But by the time Mr. Pompeo, who headed the CIA for the first two years of the Trump administration, made his assessment in an interview on “The Mark Levin Show,” the administration had all but ignored the attack in public – perhaps it realized that it was an administration, which came into office after Russia interfered in the 2016 elections, fell victim to one of Russia’s best-executed cyberattacks.

“This has been a very significant effort,” said Pompeo, adding, “we’re still unwrapping exactly what it is.” He said he expected most of the details to be kept secret.

He didn’t mention that the hackers had come to his own place of work – the State Department – nor did he say if they were just in unclassified rooms. Nor did he mention the fact that the Treasury Department and American nuclear laboratories like Los Alamos were hit.

“We failed to scare off the Russians,” said Delaware Senator Chris Coons, a Democrat close to Mr Biden, on Thursday. “We’ll see Putin stop this action if we stop him,” he said. “It’s just as aggressive for our intelligence and military systems as anything in my life.”