polls – COOPER GENERAL NEWS

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia – Supporters of the Balderas party, one of the largest opposition parties, are taking part in an election campaign in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on June 16, 2021.

Michael Tewelde / Xinhua via Getty Images

Ethiopians will vote on Monday. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is campaigning for a message of unity amid conflict and looming famine in the north of the country.

The national elections, in which 547 members of the federal parliament will be elected and the chairman of the winning party becomes prime minister, should take place in August 2020, but have been postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Abiy, who received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his work in ending a 20-year post-war territorial dispute with Eritrea, called on the Ethiopians earlier this week to ensure “the first free and fair elections in the country”.

Monday is his first election test since taking office in 2018 due to mass protests against the former coalition government dominated by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

But despite Abiy pursuing a bold reformist agenda that included crackdown on corruption and the release of political prisoners, Abiy conducted military operations against the TPLF in the northern Tigray region last year after it seized military bases.

The ensuing conflict has resulted in mass casualties and displacement, although no formal death toll has been recorded, and has brought the region to the brink of famine, according to the United Nations. Meanwhile, allegations of human rights violations have tarnished the German government’s international reputation. The African Union opened an investigation this week to investigate these allegations.

Troubled polls

The legitimacy of the election was also called into question after parties in Oromia, Ethiopia’s most populous region, where Abiy is from, announced they would boycott it on allegations of government repression.

The Oromo Liberation Front announced in March that it would withdraw after the detention of party leaders and the alleged closure of their national offices. The Oromo Federalist Congress withdrew for similar reasons when prominent figures were jailed on terrorist charges.

The deductions coincided with a surge in deadly attacks in Oromia and parts of the northwestern Amhara region, attributed to a militant offshoot of the OLF.

Amhara militiamen who are fighting against the northern region of Tigray together with federal and regional forces will receive training on November 10, 2020 on the outskirts of the village of Addis Zemen north of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.

EDUARDO SOTERAS / AFP via Getty Images

The TPLF is now officially referred to as a terrorist organization whose leaders are either arrested, waging guerrilla warfare in Tigray or on the run.

“The biggest challenge for the elections is the uncertainty, especially in the west and south of Oromia, where the activities of ethnic militias are very much aimed at undermining the electoral process itself,” said Louw Nel, senior political analyst at NKC African Economics, in a Research note Thursday.

“Ethiopian security forces have tried to create the conditions for free and fair elections in the hardest hit areas and have been embroiled in abuses of their own.”

Uncertainty is also a cause for concern in the western region of Benishangul-Gumuz, fueled by competition for resources and long-standing ethnic animosities, stressed Nel.

Although dozens of parties have put forward candidates, only Ethiopian citizenship for social justice has a party leader with a sizable national profile – Berhanu Nega, who was elected mayor of the capital Addis Ababa in 2005 before being ousted by the TPLF-led government, and locked.

The National Electoral Body of Ethiopia announced on June 10th that elections in the Harar and Somali regions would no longer take place, along with a referendum on the establishment of a new state from several districts of the Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s Regional State.

This is in addition to the 40 constituencies and six regions where May elections were postponed due to disruptions in voter registration. While these polls are now scheduled for September 6th, the elections in war-torn Tigray will be postponed indefinitely, which, according to a recently published report by the political risk consultancy Pangea-Risk, “5.7 million people who mainly oppose the federal government, effectively disenfranchised.

Reputational risk

Abiy claimed victory in Tigray in November 2020, and the region is now under interim administration after the government declared TPLF prime ministry illegal. However, it is still battling a low-level insurrection, which the Pangea Risk report increases the risk of disproportionate war tactics by rebel groups.

“Persistent uncertainty, delayed elections and a seemingly botched round of telecommunications licenses are all signs of concern as Ethiopia struggles to recover from the pandemic and the economy slows to its lowest growth rate in nearly 20 years,” the report said .

The conflict in Tigray has damaged global reputations that could affect interest in the land as an investment location, a key tenet of Abiy’s privatization and economic liberation drive.

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia – People listen as employees of the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) explain how to vote under an overpass in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on June 17, 2021 in the upcoming general election on June 21, 2021.

YASUYOSHI CHIBA / AFP via Getty Images

“Companies that were once encouraged by the prospect of investing in a country led by a Nobel Peace Prize laureate who wanted to open it to the world are now at reputational risk when investing in a country plagued with war crimes and famine Connection, “said NKC’s Nel.

The government is currently planning to auction a 40% stake in Ethio Telecom, which is still attracting interest, with the ultimate goal of generating revenue through partial privatization and new licensing tenders while reducing the debt burden, partly through state-owned companies like Ethio Telecom .

“A relatively peaceful election will help rehabilitate Ethiopia and Mr. Abiy’s image,” said Nel.

“Violence before and after the elections will do the opposite, expose the country as broken and accelerate its isolation.”

President Joe Biden speaks at the White House in Washington, USA on April 27, 2021 on the government’s response to coronavirus disease (COVID-19).

Kevin Lemarque | Reuters

Americans broadly support the large-ticket spending proposals that defined President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office.

Polls show that many more Americans approve than disapprove of the $ 1.9 trillion coronavirus bill signed in March – by far its most significant legislative victory to date.

According to surveys, Biden’s $ 2 trillion infrastructure plan is already popular with majorities or multiple respondents.

As he flips the page for his first 100 days on Thursday, Biden prepares to unveil another massive spending package that targets family-related issues.

The White House has provided few details about this plan – but at least one poll shows that a sizable majority of Americans already support it.

Ever since Biden took office from former President Donald Trump in the midst of the pandemic, he has vowed to take swift and ambitious action to get the US out of the health crisis and overtake the damaged economy.

Despite efforts by Republicans to brand the spending proposals as high-profile boondoggles and harmful tax hikes, Biden’s offer seems to be paying off so far. According to the latest NBC News poll, the president’s overall approval rating is 53% above water, backed by American support for his dealings with Covid and the economy.

CNBC policy

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But Biden’s multi-trillion dollar spike in spending is still in its infancy. The $ 1,400 stimulus checks many Americans received as part of last month’s Covid bill are still being mailed out. Major lawmakers are calling for a tighter infrastructure proposal, and others have already resisted possible tax increases in the as yet undisclosed family plan.

“Amorphous spending proposals that promise a lot to people often get a lot of support,” said Steve Ellis, president of the impartial household guard Taxpayers for Common Sense.

“People see this as an advantage. They hear about the good things. They don’t necessarily hear about the problems.”

Covid answer

Recent polls from NBC, Reuters / Ipsos, CNBC and the Washington Post-ABC News consistently show that Biden gets his top marks for his handling of the pandemic.

The president’s Covid response was adopted by 69% in NBC’s national poll, compared with 27% who oppose it. This survey, conducted April 17-20 of 1,000 US adults, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

The latest Reuters / Ipsos result released on Tuesday had similar results: 65% support Biden’s work on the pandemic, 29% oppose it. The national public opinion poll polled 4,423 adults from April 12-16. According to Reuters, the credibility interval – described as a measure of the accuracy of the survey – was 2 percentage points for the entire sample.

Polls show that Americans still view coronavirus as one of the country’s most pressing problems. According to NBC’s latest report, they are more likely to seek solutions from the government: Fifty-five percent of respondents said the government should do more to solve problems and meet people’s needs, compared with 41 percent who said they are doing too much.

From the start, Biden emphasized that his administration’s ability to fight Covid depends on the passage of the $ 1.9 trillion stimulus plan, dubbed the American bailout. “Without additional government support, the economic and health crises could worsen in the coming months,” the White House said on the day of Biden’s inauguration.

The legislation included several major spending measures, including sending direct payments of $ 1,400 to most adults in the United States, $ 350 billion to state and local governments, and an increase in federal unemployment benefits.

Since Biden took office, the US has increased vaccine distribution and vaccination rates significantly.

When asked about the stimulus package itself in the Post-ABC survey, 65% of respondents said they support it, versus 31% who opposed it. The survey is based on telephone interviews with a random national sample of 1,007 adults conducted April 18-21. The error rate is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

In NBC’s survey, 46% of respondents said the Covid package is a good idea, a plurality that far outweighs the 25% who said it was a bad idea and the 26% who had no opinion .

Infrastructure push

Biden’s infrastructure proposal, priced at more than $ 2 trillion in its original form, is also popular with Americans, according to surveys.

The package would fund a range of projects that go well beyond repairing roads, bridges, ports and other structures that some call “traditional” transport infrastructure. The White House formulates the plan as a forward-looking investment that addresses climate change, the rise of China, racial injustice, and more.

A Monmouth University poll published Monday found that nearly two-thirds of respondents support the plan and the idea of paying for it in part by increasing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%.

Almost half of those surveyed by Monmouth said the federal government is not spending enough on transportation infrastructure, 49% compared with 23% who said the government is spending the right amount and 14% who said they are overpaying .

Monmouth’s survey was conducted April 8-12 by phone of 800 US adults. The results show an error rate of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

CNBC’s most recent All-America poll, which polled 802 adults nationwide from April 8-11, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5, found that few were affected by infrastructure plans and corporate tax increases supported.

However, the poll found that Americans overwhelmingly support almost all of the details of the plan when presented individually.

Infrastructure investments have historically been popular with both major political parties. But Republicans and some moderate Democrats have urged Biden to cut back significantly on the comprehensive package.

A group of GOP senators made a counter offer last week that cost less than a third of Biden’s proposal. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., Has criticized the Biden Plan as a “Trojan horse” for a progressive agenda.

However, poll results suggest that the ambitious White House outlines are resonating with large parts of the country at this early stage.

“The Biden government’s suspicion that spending programs are popular is borne out by these polls,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Independent Electoral Institute, in a press release on Monday.

“The key to maintaining this level of support is whether Americans can point to direct benefits in their own lives once these plans are put into action.”

Ellis told CNBC that “there isn’t much to grab or track” at this point.

“The devil will be in the details of this,” Ellis said.

The next phase

In a joint address to Congress on Wednesday evening, Biden is expected to come up with another massive spending plan that focuses on family issues.

The details are unclear, but Monmouth’s poll shows that Americans still have an appetite for more government spending.

The proposal will reportedly focus on expanding childcare, paid vacation, general preschool education and other priorities, and will cost around $ 1.5 trillion, citing sources familiar with the discussions, according to NBC.

According to reports, Biden could also try to fund the plan by raising taxes for millionaire investors and increasing the tax on capital gains from 20% to 39.6% for those Americans who earn more than $ 1 million.

Monmouth’s survey asked, “Biden is also expected to propose a large spending plan to expand access to health care and childcare and support paid vacation and tuition. Would you generally support or oppose this plan?”

64 percent of respondents said they supported it, 34 percent were against it, and only 2 percent said they didn’t know.

Multi-trillion dollar spending plans weren’t always seen as political winners, Ellis said. Comparing the current moment to the 2008 financial crisis, he said that when leaders were preparing recovery plans, “it was recognized that one trillion dollars is a threshold we do not want to cross.”

But the Covid packages that Trump first passed last year “blew it away,” said Ellis.

“Once you cross that threshold, it will normalize,” he said. “Most people don’t mind a trillion, let alone a trillion dollars.”