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World News

Planet set to hit crucial temperature restrict quickly

A family walks across dry cracked earth that used to be the bottom of Lake Mendocino on April 22, 2021 in Ukiah, California.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

The likelihood of the planet reaching a key temperature limit within the next five years has doubled, according to a study by climate scientists, with the world on track to witness the hottest year on record in that same time frame.

“There is about a 40% chance of the annual average global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5° Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above the pre-industrial level in at least one of the next five years — and these odds are increasing with time,” the World Meteorological Organization said on Thursday. The WMO, a specialized agency of the United Nations, said this had doubled from 20% in the last decade.

That 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level is the lower target of the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement. The climate accord is widely recognized as critically important to avoid an irreversible climate crisis.

In 2020 — one of the three hottest years on record — the global average temperature was 1.2 °C above the pre-industrial baseline, the WMO reported in April. The Paris Agreement aims to keep the rise in global temperature significantly below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels this century.

“There is a 90% likelihood of at least one year between 2021-2025 becoming the warmest on record,” the WMO said in its press release.

Between now and 2025, high latitude regions like Europe, the northern U.S. and Canada, and Russia, as well as the Sahel in Africa, are likely to become wetter and the Atlantic is expected to see more tropical cyclones compared to the recent past, which the WMO defines as the 1981-2010 average. 

“These are more than just statistics,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement. 

“Increasing temperatures mean more melting ice, higher sea levels, more heatwaves and other extreme weather, and greater impacts on food security, health, the environment and sustainable development,” he said.

Still, the WMO says that it is “very unlikely,” with just a 10% probability, that the five-year mean annual temperature of the planet will be 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels for the entire 2021-2025 period. The 90% likelihood refers to that temperature rise in any one of the next five years.  

Speaking about the report, senior Met Office scientist Leon Hermanson told BBC News on Thursday: “We’re approaching 1.5 C – we’re not there yet but we’re getting close. Time is running out for the strong action which we need now.”

Worse extreme disaster events

Governments around the world have launched ambitious targets to cut carbon emissions and major energy companies are now beginning to feel the impact of the climate movement as some heavyweight investors pressure firms to decrease their fossil fuel use.

But substantially lowering emissions will be an extremely challenging endeavor, scientists warn. The WMO notes that the Paris Accords’ “nationally determined contributions,” or states’ commitments to emissions reductions, “currently fall far short of what is needed to achieve this target.”

And energy demand is expected to rise dramatically in the coming years as the world’s population continues to grow, with most of that need still set to be met by fossil fuels, according to the Energy Information Administration.

The COP26 Summit scheduled for November of this year in Glasgow, Scotland is being described by many in the scientific and policymaking community as a crucial “make or break” moment for governments to stem what many warn will be a climate disaster as sea levels and global temperatures rise. 

In the U.S. alone, intensifying rainfall fueled by climate change has caused nearly $75 billion in flood damage in the past thirty years, Stanford University researchers found in a study published in January. Those researchers warned that passing warming levels outlined in the global Paris Climate Accord will worsen extreme disaster events.

And developing nations are most exposed to climate risk — especially those in coastal areas and those highly dependent on predictable weather patterns for agricultural production.

Morgan Stanley in 2019 reported that climate-related disasters have cost the world $650 billion over the last three years, with North America shouldering most of the burden.

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World News

COP26 president says ‘coal should go’ if planet to fulfill local weather targets

Justin Merriman | Bloomberg Creative Photos | Getty Images

This year’s COP26 climate change conference must bring coal a thing of the past, according to UK lawmakers, who will formally negotiate at the summit.

In a comprehensive speech on Friday, COP26 President-elect Alok Sharma wanted to highlight the importance of ending international coal financing, a goal he called a “personal priority”.

“We call on the countries to give up coal power and win the G-7 as a pioneer,” he said. “At the same time, we are working with developing countries to support their transition to clean energy.”

“The days of coal, which provides the cheapest form of energy, are in the past and must remain in the past,” he added.

Sharma said science understands that “coal has to go” to sustain the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The goal was set in the Paris Agreement on Climate Change during the 2015 COP21 Summit in the French capital.

The agreement, described by the United Nations as a legally binding international treaty on climate change, aims to “limit global warming to well below 2, preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels”.

The COP26 summit is due to be hosted by the UK and will take place in the Scottish city of Glasgow between November 1st and 12th. It was originally supposed to take place a year earlier, but has been postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

The UK’s official COP26 website said it would “bring parties together to accelerate action to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change”.

In his remarks on Friday, Sharma continued: “The reality is that renewable energies are cheaper than coal in most countries. The coal business, as the UN Secretary-General has said, is going up in smoke. It’s old technology.”

“So let’s make COP26 the moment we leave it where it belongs in the past and, of course, help workers and communities transition by creating good green jobs to fill the void.”

While some will view Sharma’s ambitions as commendable, coal still provides more than a third of the planet’s electricity generation, according to the International Energy Agency.

According to an analysis by the IEA, global coal consumption decreased by 4% in 2020, but that decrease “was mainly concentrated in the first few months of the year”.

“By the end of 2020, demand had risen above pre-Covid levels due to Asia, where economies recovered quickly and December was particularly cold,” added the IEA.

In the US, coal continues to play an important role in power generation. Preliminary figures from the US Energy Information Administration show that natural gas and coal accounted for 40.3% and 19.3% of utility-scale electricity generation in 2020, respectively.

Sharma’s comments come at a time when plans for a new coal mine in Cumbria, a county in northwest England, are proving extremely controversial, not least because Britain will host COP26. The fate of the project is to be determined.

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Health

How Hospitals Can Assist Sufferers and the Planet

This article is part of our new series on the Future of Healthcare, which examines changes in the medical field.

As climate change evolves from a model of the future to a reality of the present, health systems across the country are facing tough questions. What should doctors do when forest fires, rising floods, or other natural disasters endanger their ability to care for patients? How can these institutions be resilient in the face of these disasters?

For Ramé Hemstreet, these are not abstract questions. Mr. Hemstreet is Vice President of Operations and Chief Sustainable Resources Officer for Kaiser Permanente, the California-based healthcare system. The state is already addressing the effects of climate change: During the Northern California wildfires in 2017 and 2019, Kaiser Permanente had to evacuate more than 100 patients from a Santa Rosa facility and find a way to care for the surrounding communities.

“The climate crisis is a human health crisis and we already live that in California,” said Hemstreet.

For the past decade, Mr. Hemstreet and his colleagues at the company have attempted to remove it from fossil fuels in an attempt to largely reduce the company’s contribution to climate change. However, it has also become clear that fossil fuel dependency is an obstacle to health care as the effects of climate change are increasingly part of the lived experience of many Americans.

Hospitals and health systems across the country are trying to answer the key question of how to care for patients when climate change threatens their ability to keep hospitals open. Many of the changes to improve resilience are not lean, technically advanced responses to crisis. Rather, they often represent sensible solutions: relocation of technical equipment from basements, in which floods could damage them, to higher floors; Arranging patient transfers before disasters; Improving energy efficiency; better air filters; and more backup systems and redundancies, just in case.

Since 2012, Boston Medical Center has reduced its energy use by nearly 40 percent and its greenhouse gas emissions from all energy sources by 90 percent while caring for more patients. Some of these savings can be attributed to a CHP power and heat plant that is 35 percent more efficient than the electricity supplier, who uses their energy needs separately. The hospital also bought enough solar power from a solar farm in North Carolina to cover all of its electricity.

BMC, the largest safety net hospital in New England serving the uninsured and underinsured community in the Boston area, has expanded its sustainability efforts beyond renewable electricity and heating, including a rooftop garden in the hospital that grows about 6,000 pounds of food a year for its pantry, stationary meals, and a hospital farmers’ market, and a biodigester that converts food waste into water.

Robert Biggio, an engineer who served in the Merchant Navy and is now senior vice president of facilities and support services for the hospital, learned resilience on the high seas. “People can’t reach you on a ship in the middle of the sea,” he said. “You don’t have a choice to be resilient.”

While it is often argued that sustainability and climate friendliness are too expensive, all system upgrades – including a cogeneration power plant and a cooling system with chilled water circuit instead of an expensive new tower – have saved BMC, a non-profit, significant amount of money.

“Waste reduction is more efficient and also improves resilience,” said Biggio. “They go hand in hand.”

Healthcare in the United States is responsible for an enormous amount of waste and a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions. For every hospital bed, the American healthcare system produces about 30 pounds of waste every day. Overall, it accounts for around 10 percent of national greenhouse gas emissions.

Much of the waste comes from the shift towards disposable items for single use, apart from personal protective equipment, which is intended for single use only. Many hospitals use outside companies to clean and reprocess many of these items. Kaiser Permanente has committed to recycling, reusing or composting 100 percent of its non-hazardous waste by 2025.

In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, hospitals need to have backup power, usually provided by diesel generators. These run on fossil fuels and produce particulate matter known as PM 2.5, which contributes to asthma and other diseases. The air quality in hospitals, which have to test their generators regularly, is often poor.

A recent study found that colored people are more exposed to PM 2.5 from all sources compared to whites, and black Americans are most affected. As a result, these communities, which often do not have access to health care, are more likely to suffer the health consequences of this exposure. PM 2.5 is also responsible for 85,000 to 200,000 deaths per year in the US (according to the study), and long-term exposure to PM 2.5 correlates with hospitalization from Covid-19.

During the fire season and heatwaves, power may go out or utilities may turn off power to avoid sparks or system-wide blackouts. Both mean that hospitals have to be operated with their generators.

That hospitals are partially responsible for this pollution is an unacceptable irony, said Hemstreet.

Kaiser Permanente has been buying supply-scale renewable energy since 2015 and signed a contract in 2018 to purchase 180 megawatts of wind and solar energy and 110 megawatts of battery storage, which is currently under construction. Since 2010, the company has installed 50 megawatts of solar power in its systems and is installing a 9-megawatt-hour battery on the company’s campus in Ontario, California, which can be used to completely take most of the system off the grid.

In New York City, space constraints and less sunshine make ambitious installations difficult, but heatwaves present a similar challenge – the possibility of power outages and rolling outages that turn off air conditioning, with higher temperatures putting some older adults and the sick, in particular, at risk.

Like BMC, NYU Langone Health has built a cogeneration power plant for air conditioning powered by electricity, heat and steam. It’s 50 percent more efficient than electricity, according to Paul Schwabacher, senior vice president of facility management at NYU Langone.

Construction of the CHP plant was in progress prior to Hurricane Sandy in 2012, which was an eye-opening experience for the hospital system. During the storm, the flood reached the lower floors of the hospital, leaving 15 million gallons of contaminated water. More than 300 patients had to be evacuated from the hospital, including newborns in the intensive care unit who were carried down many flights of stairs by doctors and nurses.

The hospital was closed for two months after the storm. During that time, about 100 electricians were working on repairs, Schwabacher said. “We made lemonade,” he said, adding that they did repairs that would have been much more difficult with the hospital open, like cleaning all of the air ducts. They also rebuilt and expanded the emergency room, which was flooded during the storm.

Since then, the hospital has built a new building and restored older ones.

However, NYU Langone’s biggest effort towards resilience is new flood barriers around campus designed to protect against a storm surge seven feet above the level caused by Hurricane Sandy. The campus also has a 12-foot steel storm barrier on the loading ramp that can be raised hydraulically or manually. Valves on drains and sewers to prevent backflows outside the streets from being flooded; and steel gates and doors to contain the flood at critical points throughout the facility.

But building walls are not going to keep the effects of climate change away. This will be due to the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions across society, Schwabacher said.

“We are very, very confident that we will be protected, but we know that the next disaster will be different from the last.”