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Health

The Unknowability of Different Individuals’s Ache

Every Christmas Eve, too late, he told me about it again. The eight-year-old PFY had stepped on an old can that severed his tattered shoe. The stab wound became infected with tetanus – fatal even now in 10 percent of cases, far more in rural Ireland around the middle of the century. The nearest hospital was hours away and nobody in my father’s fishing village owned a car. Eventually a wealthy man came to drive PJ, but too late: in the back seat, his body already stiff and his jaws locked, PJ died, rigid, sprawled on the laps of my 13-year-old father and father.

Every time my father told the story, I looked out of his eyes at his dying little brother, who was only 8 years old. PJ’s body had become his coffin. That must have been so terrifying. My father must have felt so helpless.

From a helpless boy, my father went from being an intimidating man, partly through determination. He had no control over PJ’s death and not much over my mother’s. Yet the anger that caused his faint became a motivational energy that turned into physical strength. He’s managed to work so hard and steadily, to be so selfless and steadfast in saving money, that he paid for my way through an Ivy League college.

Most of all, however, his strength must have been demonstrated in the way he had to endure his physical suffering for so long. When he was over 70 years old, he was continually and unpredictably sidelined by upset stomach or bowel problems that no doctor could adequately treat or even diagnose. The persistence of his illnesses should have made me more concerned about him. Instead, he became the father who wept wolf. I couldn’t or wouldn’t put myself in his tormented body; and to the extent that I could get into his thoughts, I decided that his sickness was made worse by his tendency to brood.

It wasn’t until after my father’s suicide that I learned that depression can cause chronic gastrointestinal distress, just as stress can cause back pain or sadness. I doubt any doctor explained this to my father sufficiently. The mere suggestion that his suffering might have had a “psychosomatic” component made him protest that what was happening to him wasn’t just “inside his head”. Of course not. And yet the brain is just as much a part of the body as the intestine. In addition to sensing physical pain, the brain can also help trigger painful physical responses.

If my father had a better understanding of the mind-body connection, would that have saved him? I can not say it. But although I could imagine his emotional or psychological suffering, I was reluctant to empathize with him physically. I could put myself in his eyes as he looked down at his dying brother. But I resisted his aching body. And maybe that’s because we think depression so much in our heads, even though it can be in the flesh and blood and organs too – I tried to get him to change his perception. What I should have urged was better medical care for his body with all the pain.

Maura Kelly is working on memoirs about her father. She encourages anyone experiencing a mental illness to go to an emergency room, call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline (1-800-273-8255), or visit the National Alliance on Mental Illness website (nami.org).

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Health

‘On That Fringe of Concern’: One Lady’s Battle With Sickle Cell Ache

NASHVILLE — She struggled through the night as she had so many times before, restless from sickle cell pain that felt like knives stabbing her bones. When morning broke, she wept at the edge of her hotel-room bed, her stomach wrenched in a complicated knot of anger, trepidation and hope.

It was a gray January morning, and Lisa Craig was in Nashville, three hours from her home in Knoxville, Tenn., preparing to see a sickle cell specialist she hoped could do something so many physicians had been unable to do: bring her painful disease under control.

Ms. Craig, 48, had clashed with doctors over her treatment for years. Those tensions had only increased as the medical consensus around pain treatment shifted and regulations for opioid use became more stringent. Her anguish had grown so persistent and draining that she sometimes thought she’d be better off dead.

She was willing to try just about anything to stop the deterioration of her body and mind — and her hope on this day in January 2019 rested in a Nigerian-born physician at Vanderbilt University Medical Center who had long treated the disease, which mostly afflicts people of African descent.

That morning, she slipped on a cream-colored cardigan and a necklace with a heart-shaped pendant. She played some Whitney Houston before sliding behind the wheel of her black S.U.V. Her husband, in the passenger’s seat, punched their destination into his phone’s navigation system.

“Live as if everything is a miracle,” reads a framed quote on Ms. Craig’s beige living room wall, and that’s exactly what she was hoping for.

People with sickle cell, a rare, inherited blood disorder caused by a mutation in a single gene, typically endure episodes of debilitating pain as well as chronic pain. Roughly 100,000 Americans and millions of people globally, mostly in Africa, have the disease. Red blood cells that carry oxygen become stiff and curved like crescent moons, clogging blood vessels and starving the body of oxygen.

Promising developments in gene therapy have given people with the disease hope that a cure is on the way for an illness that often causes organ failure and premature death. But the first such therapy is more than a year from regulatory approval. It will almost certainly be extremely expensive, cannot reverse the disease’s damage to tissues and organs, and may come too late for people whose bodies are so battered by the disease that they might not survive the grueling treatment.

Most people with sickle cell are searching for something far more basic: a way to prevent or manage the disease’s devastating complications — strokes, depression and, above all, pain.

That search can be rocky, as I learned following Ms. Craig over two and a half years of struggle and heartache. I joined her on doctor’s visits, shared meals with her family, parsed her medical records, sat in on a therapy session and tagged along as she ran errands around Knoxville and relaxed at home. I saw moments of anger, sadness and agony, but also determination, joy and love.

Her efforts to find relief were complicated by a national opioid epidemic and the coronavirus pandemic, as well as the challenges of navigating a medical system that often mistreats Black people like her. At the same time, doctors were changing how they treated sickle cell as emerging research suggested that narcotics could actually worsen pain.

Ms. Craig felt doctors were prone to stereotyping her as an addict cadging narcotics and didn’t believe in the extremity of her suffering.

Racist myths persist in medical care, like the idea that Black people tolerate more pain than white people. Such stereotypes have led Black patients to receive poor care, extensive research suggests. That can be especially problematic for sickle cell patients like Ms. Craig, who describe rushing to the emergency room in agony and waiting hours to be seen, only to be sent home still in pain after doctors tell them that their lab results are fine and they should not be suffering.

Biopsies can detect cancer, X-rays a broken bone. But there is no definitive clinical test to determine when a sickle cell patient is suffering a pain crisis.

“This is the essence of the problem,” said Dr. Sophie Lanzkron, the director of the Sickle Cell Center for Adults at the Johns Hopkins Hospital. “There is no objective measure of crisis. The gold standard is the patient tells you, ‘I am having a crisis.’”

The intensity of the disease as well as the subjectivity of treatment mean that a visit to a new doctor can feel like the cruelest game of roulette. And the weight of that pressure bore down on Ms. Craig as she parked at Vanderbilt and hobbled into the elevator. Would the doctor help her?

“Chest hurts,” she told her husband.

“You’ll be all right,” he assured her.

The throbbing pounded the little girl’s body. It was in her arms and legs, and it often made her sob.

Lisa’s parents were baffled. Her mother gave her warm baths and body rubs, and took her to the doctor frequently. But the pain persisted.

Then one day in the late 1970s, when Lisa was about 5, her parents drove her from their home in Knoxville to the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn. Doctors ran tests and discovered the cause: sickle cell disease.

At the time, widespread screening for the illness in newborns was still about a decade away. Lisa was the only person in her extended family ever to have it diagnosed.

“That was something that was unheard-of,” she said.

Her mother was often her protector, coddling her when the pain set in, while her father urged her to carry on.

Flare-ups of pain made her miss out on slumber parties, ice skating and plenty of school. But for all the restrictions, no one ever questioned whether her pain was real.

At the East Tennessee Children’s Hospital where she was treated, the rooms were decorated with ocean- or circus-themed wallpaper. Nurses gave her games and puppets and tried to make her smile.

“Pain medication was given because people believed I was in pain,” she wrote in her journal decades later.

The medicines gave her relief, but also set her body on a path complicating her treatment decades later: She needed opioid painkillers to live comfortably.

A crisis was brewing in society that complicated efforts to treat pain caused by sickle cell: the spread of addiction to opioids fueled in large part by reckless, even criminal marketing of the drugs by major pharmaceutical companies.

Research showed that people with sickle cell were no more likely to become addicted to opioids than other chronic pain sufferers, and that their use of narcotics had not skyrocketed as it had in the general population.

In March 2016, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released stringent guidelines on prescribing narcotic painkillers, though it carved out exceptions for sickle cell.

A few months later, Ms. Craig’s doctors began cutting back on the amount of intravenous narcotics she was given for pain crises. She argued that the reduced doses were not working. Her hematologist, Dr. Jashmin K. Patel, urged her to take hydroxyurea, a chemotherapy drug that is a standard treatment for the disease, saying it would reduce her pain, according to medical records. Ms. Craig had tried it, but had an unusually severe reaction, with mouth sores, hair loss and vomiting, so she stopped. She said she felt that the doctor wasn’t taking her complaints about the side effects seriously. (Most patients can take the drug successfully.)

“Why do you dear doctor still bully me to take it,” Ms. Craig wrote in her journal on Sept. 17, 2017.

She didn’t want a doctor who preached to her, she wrote, but one who listened, because as someone “who deals with how MY body works with this disease don’t you think my expertise outweighs yours.”

Over the past decade, even some of the best-informed sickle cell specialists have begun reconsidering their reliance on long-term opioid therapy. They have found little evidence to suggest that sickle cell patients who regularly take opioids see their quality of life improve. And their concern about long-term reliance on narcotics is especially high in patients like Ms. Craig, who are living well into middle age with a disease that used to kill its sufferers in childhood or early adulthood.

Dr. Lanzkron at Johns Hopkins said her patients would “end up on these ridiculous doses” and “still have the same level of pain.”

“It’s a terrible treatment,” she said.

So the specialists started trying to teach people with sickle cell how to lessen and tolerate pain with techniques including therapy, meditation and hypnosis.

Ms. Craig had tried everything — warm baths, elevating her feet, steady breathing. She hated feeling dependent on pills. Yet she dreaded the way a simple ache crescendoed to feel like a thousand bee stings or a hand smashed in a door.

In July 2018, her need for relief led to conflict during a visit with Dr. Patel. Alarm bells began ringing in Ms. Craig’s head when the doctor stepped into the room accompanied by a stenographer.

Dr. Patel said she was concerned that Ms. Craig was not taking hydroxyurea as she was supposed to, according to medical records reviewed by The New York Times. She told Ms. Craig that she was not going to increase her pain medication, noting in the file that Ms. Craig had called two weeks earlier for a refill.

Ms. Craig said in an interview that she had never asked for an increase in medication and that Dr. Patel was twisting her words and ignoring her concerns. Neither Dr. Patel nor the practice where she worked responded to requests for comment.

Voices were raised, feelings hurt. Eight days later — on July 18, 2018 — Ms. Craig got a letter from Dr. Patel saying she was no longer welcome at the practice, “because of your lack of cooperation in your medical treatment, non-compliance with treatment recommendations and frequent narcotic requests before agreed time-frame.”

After she was kicked out of Dr. Patel’s practice, Ms. Craig went to Dr. Wahid T. Hanna, a veteran oncologist at the University of Tennessee Medical Center, who had treated dozens of sickle cell patients.

By December 2018, familiar tensions arose. Dr. Hanna grew suspicious of her request for narcotics. She had gone through the 120 Oxycodone pills that he had prescribed a month earlier and wanted a refill.

On several visits, Dr. Hanna repeated a refrain as if he were saying it for the first time: He was puzzled that she had pain because she had a generally less severe version of sickle cell.

“So really, I don’t have any justification why should you have pain,” he told her on one of those visits.

“I’ve always had pain,” she replied, according to a recording Ms. Craig’s husband took of the meeting.

Months earlier, Tennessee had enacted some of the nation’s most stringent restrictions on doctors prescribing opioids during a deadly epidemic, though there were exceptions for sickle cell patients.

“My question is, with the way the state is regulating the narcotics and all that, we could be questioned,” Dr. Hanna said. “We could be red-flagged.”

If Ms. Craig had pain, Dr. Hanna said it might have been from arthritis or the heavy periods she complained of. Those could be managed without opioids, he said.

“We do this every time I come, and I’m not understanding,” Ms. Craig said.

“I’m saying this because we can be questioned,” Dr. Hanna said, and if the authorities asked him whether he saw a lot of pain in someone with her kind of sickle cell, “I’d say usually I don’t.”

“You can’t say 100 percent that it’s not possible,” Ms. Craig said.

“I want to take care of you, but I want to do it right,” he said.

In that moment, Dr. Hanna said in a later interview, “I did not know whether her pain requirements were genuine or not.”

Her red blood cell count was stable and her iron was low — metrics that, Dr. Hanna said, suggested that her sickle cell was not that severe. But experts who treat sickle cell say that iron and hemoglobin levels do not indicate how severe the disease is.

Still, Dr. Hanna reduced her narcotic dosage, encouraged her to use over-the-counter pain medicines and scheduled her for an iron infusion, which he told her would make her “feel like a different person.”

Days after another disappointing visit to Dr. Hanna in December 2018, Ms. Craig sat on a light green leather couch beneath a painting of an ocean in her therapist’s office, choking back tears.

“Putting up with somebody belittling me and making me feel less than is not worth it,” she told her therapist.

It was difficult enough to control her physical pain, but reining in the mental anguish proved equally troublesome.

A former preschool teacher who speaks with wide-eyed animation, Ms. Craig has not been able to work full time since 2005 because of her unpredictable pain. She finds purpose where she can, taking care of her family, picking up the occasional odd job, babysitting for relatives and friends.

She exercised as her doctors advised, took 15 minutes a day to “be selfish” as a friend suggested and wrote prayers on brown slips of paper that she sealed in a jar. She listened as her therapist explained that there was no shame in trying to get prescriptions to relieve pain.

But all around, the signals told Ms. Craig otherwise: the constant stream of news about the opioid crisis and, one evening shortly before her Vanderbilt visit, a heated discussion with an aunt at the family dining room table.

“You can’t just come on in there and just say: ‘Look, this is the drug I take. And I know this’ll work,’” said her aunt, Nanette Henry Scruggs, who used to work at a hospital.

“The hospitals tell people all the time to be your own advocate,” Ms. Craig said.

Times were changing, her aunt explained, because doctors had overmedicated pain patients and now risked losing their licenses.

“You don’t understand it because you have the disease,” Ms. Scruggs said.

“And you don’t understand it because you don’t,” Ms. Craig fired back, her voice straining with emotion. “And you’re not the one that they look at and go, ‘Oh, she’s just exaggerating her pain.’ When I want to saw my own freaking legs off, that’s a problem!”

Many sickle cell patients feel frustrated that doctors don’t believe patients know what works. Often, that’s narcotic doses much higher than the average person requires. Yet asking for specific medications can fuel distrust, compounded by many doctors’ lack of familiarity with sickle cell.

Only one in five family physicians said they were comfortable treating sickle cell, according to a 2015 survey. Even hematologists rarely specialize in it, with a greater focus on cancers of the blood, which are more prevalent.

Ms. Craig lamented that sickle cell patients did not seem to get the sympathy given to people with other devastating illnesses. Somebody needed to change that, she told her aunt, “and I’m going to be that somebody.”

“Sickle cell patients are not abusing, are not the major cause of people overdosing,” Ms. Craig told her.

“I’m not saying that,” her aunt said, later adding, “She’s thinking I’m against her.”

“I’m not saying you’re against me, but you’re definitely not standing shoulder to shoulder with me,” Ms. Craig said.

Ms. Craig was now worked up, and her husband, Jeremy, urged her to calm down. He has long been her champion, but Ms. Craig worried her disease was a drag on her family. Jeremy, 45, their daughter, Kaylyn, 19, and their son, Mason, 15, have endured her at her weakest and angriest. They accompany her on middle-of-the-night emergency room runs and wake up when she paces their single-story brick home in the middle of the night because of pain.

Still, they have always looked out for her. Her husband first learned that she had sickle cell when they were dating and she told him that she was having a pain crisis. He drove her to the emergency room at 2 a.m., kissed her on the forehead and told her he loved her. She was sold. And because he was white, there was a lower chance that he would carry the sickle cell mutation, meaning it was less likely that their children would have the disease — something she also found appealing.

For Mr. Craig, simply watching his wife suffer was not an option. He always looked for solutions and thought he’d come up with one as he scrolled through his cellphone one evening in their dim living room: marijuana.

“I think you should try it,” he said.

Ms. Craig waved him off, but he insisted that it would be safe to try in states where it was legal.

“What if it works?” he asked.

“What if it doesn’t,” she replied. “I’m done talking to you about that whole situation.”

“If we go to Washington State,” he insisted.

“I’m not going,” she said, cutting him off. “To me, that feels like an addict.”

Still, she was desperate for help as her relationship with Dr. Hanna deteriorated. A social worker suggested she consult specialists at Vanderbilt.

She made the appointment. Just a few days before the visit, she made her fourth trip to the emergency room in six weeks for a pain crisis. The doctor gave her intravenous Tylenol and four oxycodone tablets. After four hours, she was still in pain and left the hospital, as she had many times, without relief.

“I want to be extremely honest with u and let you know I am tired,” she wrote to me on Facebook at 1:16 a.m., after getting home from the emergency room. “I feel beaten down by these doctors as if I am an addict.”

She was hurtling, she said, toward “a dangerous level of depression.”

Ms. Craig fidgeted and sweat beaded around her lip, forehead and eyes. It was Jan. 18, 2019, and, at last, she sat in an exam room at Vanderbilt.

Dr. Adetola A. Kassim strolled in, chomping gum. He shook hands with her and her husband.

“So what brings you?” he asked.

For half an hour, Ms. Craig guided him through her arduous journey: hip replacement, seizures, blood clots. Pain crises usually came right before her period, she told him, and he said that researchers were exploring whether there was a link between sickle cell pain and menstruation.

Dr. Kassim, who heads Vanderbilt’s adult sickle cell program, is a native of Nigeria who has specialized in treating the disease for more than 20 years. As he listened to her medical history and symptoms, he contemplated the riddle of treating her.

“What you’ve had over the years is an interplay of your disease with other chronic health problems,” he told her. “I’m going to think about it carefully because you’re a little complicated.”

He told Ms. Craig that he needed to run tests to figure out the underlying causes of her chronic pain. Did she, for instance, have arthritis? Since hydroxyurea had so many side effects for her, he wanted to try another drug, Endari.

And he wanted to manage her pain with sparing narcotic use. He worried she was susceptible to hyperalgesia, a condition in which prolonged opioid use can alter patients’ nerve receptors and actually cause more pain.

In many ways, he was echoing Dr. Hanna. She needed to take fewer narcotics. Sickle cell probably was not the cause of some of her pain. But he never questioned whether she was hurting. He listened. He laid out a plan.

“You can’t just come in one day and be like a cowboy,” Dr. Kassim said in a later interview. “You’ve got to win their trust and begin to slowly educate them.”

After she left his office that day, Ms. Craig leaned her head on her husband’s shoulder. “I feel like we should have come here a long time ago,” she said.

Three months after her first visit with Dr. Kassim, pain radiated through her lower back, left hip, elbows and knees. She was out of hydrocodone, and her next refill was more than a week away.

“Continue alternating between Aleve and extra strength Tylenol,” Karina L. Wilkerson, a nurse practitioner in Dr. Kassim’s office, counseled her in an email, prescribing a muscle relaxer and telling her: “Rest, heat and hydrate.”

Days later, the pain was so unrelenting that Ms. Craig went to the emergency room and got a dose of intravenous narcotics.

She felt as if history was repeating itself. She was trying to wean herself from opioids, to rely mostly on over-the-counter meds, to use heat and ice, but it was not working.

“I feel like I’m a junkie,” she said in an interview, her voice cracking.

The pain returned a day after she left the hospital. With four days until her next visit to Dr. Kassim, she sent another message to ask whether there was anything more to be done, careful not to request hydrocodone. A nurse wrote that she could be prescribed more muscle relaxers, but “we cannot fill any narcotics for you before your appointment.”

Ms. Craig felt as if she was back where she started. Dr. Kassim was friendly, attentive and knowledgeable, yet she was still enduring pain.

“A part of me knew we’d be back in this position,” she said, “that it was too good to be true.”

One day last May, Ms. Craig had spent a lot of time on her feet at a family gathering after a relative’s death. As she settled in for the evening, a family friend dropped off two children she had agreed to babysit, and she braced for the inevitable result of a busy day: pain.

In the past, she would have taken a hydrocodone earlier in the day as a maintenance dose. But she had been seeing Dr. Kassim for more than a year, and although pain continued to gnaw at her, she was starting to buy into his advice. She had paid close attention to Facebook groups and news from medical journals with the latest developments on sickle cell. In her 48th year battling the disease, her perspective was changing.

She had come to realize that no matter how much hydrocodone she took or how well versed her doctor was in the disease, her pain did not disappear — and that the medical consensus had shifted against relying mainly on narcotics.

“It’s like a defeated acceptance,” she said.

In the wee hours of the morning after the family gathering, she began to hurt. Her hips throbbed. She tried to sleep on her left side, then her right. She lay on her back and elevated her feet. Nothing worked.

Still, she held off on the narcotics. Most people with sickle cell remember a crisis when their pain was “at a zillion and you were sitting in that emergency room, waiting for them to call you, and all you wanted to do was pass out,” she said. “We live on that edge of fear.”

She held off until about 11 a.m., when she took a hydrocodone. It provided enough relief to keep her out of the hospital — just the kind of progress Dr. Kassim wanted from her.

He sought to address the underlying triggers of her pain: sickle cell, worn joints, her menstrual cycle, nerve damage and prolonged opioid use. The main thing, he said, was to stabilize her quality of life. That goal motivated her.

But the spread of the coronavirus has interfered with their plan.

Dr. Kassim told Ms. Craig during a visit in February of last year that he wanted her to get an M.R.I. to better understand the underlying causes of her pain. But the pandemic hit, and she was not able to get that imaging until December. It revealed some of the pain triggers that Ms. Craig will have to get under control: a bulging disk in her back, and arthritis in both hips and her left shoulder.

She held off going to physical therapy for fear of catching Covid-19, but is now planning to go since she has been vaccinated. She has tried to tolerate the pain and avoid the hospital, but not always successfully. There were three visits in a week last June and a five-hour wait during a September visit.

Through the past year, she has grown more resolute, trying to raise awareness and support for people with the disease in Knoxville. She had masks made with the words “sickle cell” printed across the front. She has resolved to live with the disease, not suffer from it.

“It’s just my life,” she said. “The one I’ve been dealt.”

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Business

U.S. Economic system Rebounds as Ache Brought on by Pandemic Eases: Stay Updates

Here’s what you need to know:

The economy picked up speed last quarter, shaking off some of the lingering effects of the pandemic as consumer spending grew, bolstered by government stimulus checks and an easing of restrictions in many parts of the country.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that the economy expanded 1.6 percent in the first three months of 2021, compared with 1.1 percent in the final quarter last year.

On an annualized basis, the first-quarter growth rate was 6.4 percent.

Gross domestic product,

adjusted for inflation and

seasonality, at annual rates

Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation

and seasonality, at annual rates

“This was a great way to start the year,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “We had the perfect mix of improving health conditions, strong fiscal stimulus and warmer weather.”

“Consumers are now back in the driver’s seat when it comes to economic activity, and that’s the way we like it,” he added. “A consumer that is feeling confident about the outlook will generally spend more freely.”

Looking ahead, economists said they expected to see even better numbers this quarter.

“It’s good news, but the better news is coming,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “There’s nothing in this report that makes me think the economy won’t grow at a gangbusters pace in the second and third quarter.”

The expansion last quarter was spurred by stimulus checks, he said, which quickly translated into purchases of durable goods like cars and household appliances.

“This demonstrates the value of government intervention when the economy is on its knees from Covid,” he added. “But in the coming quarters, the economy will be much less dependent on stimulus as individuals use the savings they’ve accumulated during the pandemic.”

Cumulative percent change in

G.D.P. from the start of the

last five recessions

Final quarter

before

recession

5 quarters

into recession

Cumulative percent change in G.D.P.

from the start of the last five recessions

Final quarter

before

recession

5 quarters

into recession

Overall economic activity should return to prepandemic levels in the current quarter, Mr. Anderson said, while cautioning that it will take until late 2022 for employment to regain the ground it lost as a result of the pandemic.

Still, the labor market does seem to be catching up. Last month, employers added 916,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 6 percent, while initial claims for unemployment benefits have dropped sharply in recent weeks.

Tom Gimbel, chief executive of LaSalle Network, a recruiting and staffing firm in Chicago, said: “It’s the best job market I’ve seen in 25 years. We have 50 percent more openings now than we did pre-Covid.”

Hiring is stronger for junior to midlevel positions, he said, with strong demand for professionals in accounting, financing, marketing and sales, among other areas. “Companies are building up their back-office support and supply chains,” he said. “I think we’re good for at least 18 months to two years.”

Spending on goods like automobiles led the way in the first quarter, but demand for services like dining out should revive in the second quarter, said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. “I think we will see a surge in services spending,” she said.

As more Americans become vaccinated, many economists expect a decline in new unemployment claims.Credit…James Estrin/The New York Times

Initial jobless claims fell last week to yet another pandemic low in the latest sign that the economic recovery is strengthening.

About 575,000 people filed first-time claims for state unemployment benefits last week, the Labor Department said Thursday, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised figure. It was the third straight week that jobless claims had dropped.

In addition, 122,000 new claims were filed for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a federal program that covers freelancers, part-timers and others who do not routinely qualify for state benefits. That was a decline of 12,000 from the previous week.

Neither figure is seasonally adjusted. On a seasonally adjusted basis, new state claims totaled 553,000.

“Today’s report, and the other data that we got today, signals an improving labor market and an improving economy,” said Daniel Zhao, senior economist with the career site Glassdoor. “It is encouraging that claims are continuing to fall.”

Although weekly jobless claims remain above levels reached before the pandemic, vaccinations and warmer weather are offering new hope. Most economists expect the slow downward trend in claims to continue in the coming months as the economy reopens more fully.

But challenges lie ahead. The long-term unemployed — a group that historically has had a more difficult time rejoining the work force — now make up more than 40 percent of the total number of unemployed. Of the 22 million jobs that disappeared early in the pandemic, more than eight million remain lost.

“The labor market is definitely moving in the right direction,” said AnnElizabeth Konkel, an economist at the online job site Indeed. She noted that job postings as of last Friday were up 22.4 percent from February 2020.

Still, she cautioned that industries like tourism and hospitality would probably remain depressed until the pandemic was firmly under control. She also stressed that child care obligations might be preventing people ready to return to work from seeking jobs.

“We still are in a pandemic — the vaccinations are ramping up but there is that public health factor still,” Ms. Konkel said. “We’re not quite there yet.”

Microsoft will decrease the share of money it charges independent developers that publish computer games on its online store, starting in August, the company said on Thursday.

Developers will keep 88 percent of the revenue from their games, up from 70 percent. That could make Microsoft’s store more attractive to independent studios than competitors like Valve’s gaming store, called Steam, which typically starts by taking a 30 percent cut. Epic Games’ store takes 12 percent.

“We want to make sure that we’re competitive in the market,” said Sarah Bond, a Microsoft vice president who leads the gaming ecosystem organization. “Our objective is to have a leading revenue share and really a leading platform.”

The share of revenue that developers get to keep has come under greater scrutiny across the tech industry. Google and Apple have faced antitrust questions for the 30 percent fees they charge developers whose programs appear in their app stores.

Last year, Epic sued Apple and Google separately, claiming they violated antitrust laws by forcing developers to use their payment systems. Epic had tried to bypass the fees by letting customers pay for items in its Fortnite video game directly through Epic. That caused Apple and Google to boot Fortnite from their app stores.

Apple and Google have since reduced fees for some developers. Epic’s lawsuit against Apple is set to head to trial on Monday in U.S. District Court in Oakland, Calif.

A Shell recharging station for electric vehicles in the Netherlands. Despite investments in renewable energy, Shell’s profit last quarter was largely the result of rising oil and gas prices.Credit…Koen Van Weel/EPA, via Shutterstock

Strong profit increases from two of Europe’s largest energy companies, Royal Dutch Shell and Total, demonstrated that what really matters for the financial performance of these companies remains the price of oil and natural gas.

Their recent investments in clean energy, described by company officials as essential for the future, remain marginal.

Total said that adjusted net income rose by 69 percent compared with the period a year earlier, when the effects of the pandemic were beginning to kick in, to $3 billion, while Shell said that what it calls adjusted earnings rose by 13 percent to $3.2 billion.

The main factor in the improved performance by both companies was a roughly 20 percent rise in oil prices along with an increase in natural gas prices, leading to higher revenues. During a news conference to discuss the results, Jessica Uhl, Shell’s chief financial officer, said that a $10 jump in oil prices would translate into a $6.4 billion increase in cash for the company’s coffers on an annual basis.

Shell, which cut its dividend last year for the first time since World War II, confirmed that it would increase the payout for the quarter by 4 percent, to about 17 cents a share.

Both companies have tethered their futures to generating and distributing renewable sources of energy. Shell in February said its oil production had peaked in 2019, and it has been investing in various clean energy ventures, including a network of 60,000 charging stations for electric vehicles. And Total has, among other things, invested in options to build offshore wind farms off Britain.

In its earnings statement, Total took the lead among the oil majors in providing details on its investments in renewable energy like wind and solar. The company said these businesses brought in $148 million for the quarter, measured as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. This figure was about 2 percent of the overall total for the company of $7.3 billion, according to analysts at Bernstein, a research firm.

Although Airbus reported a quarterly profit after a full-year loss for 2020,  “the market remains uncertain,”  said Guillaume Faury, the company’s chief executive.Credit…Chema Moya/EPA, via Shutterstock

Airbus announced Thursday that it had returned to a profit in the first quarter following a 1.1 billion euro loss last year because of the coronavirus pandemic, but its top executive warned that the economic toll would continue.

“The first quarter shows that the crisis is not yet over for our industry, and that the market remains uncertain,” Guillaume Faury, chief executive of the world’s largest airplane maker, said in a statement.

Airbus booked a net profit of 362 million euros ($440 million) between January and March, compared with a loss of 481 million euros a year earlier, as cost-cutting measures — which included more than 11,000 layoffs announced last year for its global operations — bolstered the bottom line. Revenue fell 2 percent to 10.5 billion euros.

Airbus delivered 125 commercial aircraft to airlines in the three-month period, up from 122 a year earlier. Over all, Airbus delivered 566 aircraft to airlines in 2020, 40 percent less than expected before the pandemic.

Airbus has previously warned that the industry might not recover from the disruption caused by the pandemic until as late as 2025, as new virus variants delay a resumption of worldwide air travel.

Given the uncertain outlook, Airbus won’t ramp up aircraft deliveries this year. The company said it expected to deliver 566 aircraft on back order from airline companies, the same number as last year.

It maintained its forecast for an underlying operating profit of two billion euros for the year.

As of

Data delayed at least 15 minutes

Source: Factset

Stocks on Wall Street jumped on Thursday, rising with European stock indexes, amid indications that the economy is moving toward a recovery to prepandemic levels.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that the U.S. economy expanded 1.6 percent in the first three months of 2021, compared with 1.1 percent in the final quarter last year, or 6.4 percent on an annualized basis.

A day earlier, the Federal Reserve said that the outlook was improving and that it would continue to provide substantial monetary support, easing investors’ concerns that it would soon start easing the stimulus efforts it launched a year ago when the Covid-19 crisis forced a near shutdown of many parts of the economy.

“While the level of new cases remains concerning,” Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said, “continued vaccinations should allow for a return to more normal economic conditions later this year.” The central bank kept interest rates near zero and said it would continue buying bonds at a steady clip.

The S&P 500 rose 0.7 percent. Market sentiment continued to rise after President Biden detailed more of his spending plans — which total $4 trillion — to fund expanded access to education and reduce the cost of child care, among other things.

Oil prices rose. Futures of West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, climbed more than 2 percent to above $5 a barrel.

The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.3 percent as a measure of economic confidence for the eurozone surged higher.

  • Facebook shares rose nearly 6 percent after the company said on Wednesday that profit nearly doubled to $9.5 billion in the first quarter as advertising revenue and user numbers increased.

  • Apple shares rose about half a percent after the iPhone maker’s profit more than doubled to $23.6 billion in the first quarter. The company also said it would buy back $90 billion of its own stock, part of its continued program to return much of its earnings to shareholders.

  • Qualcomm, which makes chips for smartphones, rose nearly 6 percent after the company said its revenue increased 52 percent in the first three months of the year compared with the previous year.

  • Airbus shares rose 2.7 percent after the French plane maker said it had returned to a profit in the first quarter following a 1.1 billion euro loss last year. But the company’s chief executive added that the crisis was not over for the industry.

Amazon announced raises for half a million employees in its warehouses, delivery network and other fulfillment teams.Credit…Chang W. Lee/The New York Times

Amazon will increase pay between 50 cents and $3 an hour for half a million workers in its warehouses, delivery network and other fulfillment teams, the company said on Wednesday.

The action follows scrutiny of Amazon from lawmakers and an unsuccessful unionization push that ended this month at its large warehouse in Alabama. In 2018, Amazon raised its minimum pay to $15 an hour. In recent months, it has publicly campaigned to raise the federal minimum to $15, too.

Amazon has been on a hiring spree during the pandemic. As more customers ordered items online, the company added 400,000 employees in the United States last year. Its total work force stands at almost 1.3 million people.

Amazon typically revaluates wages each fall, before the holiday shopping season. But this year, it moved those changes earlier, said Darcie Henry, an Amazon vice president of people experience and technology. The new wages will roll out from mid-May through early June. Ms. Henry said the company was hiring for “tens of thousands” of open positions.

Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and chief executive, recently told shareholders in his annual letter that he recognized the company needed “a better vision for how we create value for employees — a vision for their success.” He said that Amazon had always striven to be “Earth’s Most Customer-Centric Company,” and that now he wanted it to be “Earth’s Best Employer and Earth’s Safest Place to Work” as well.

Amazon is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on Thursday.

Gary Gensler’s tenure leading the Securities and Exchange Commission is off to a rocky start: Alex Oh, who he named just days ago to run the regulator’s enforcement division, has resigned following a federal court ruling in a case involving one of her corporate clients, ExxonMobil.

In her resignation letter on Wednesday, Ms. Oh said the matter would be “an unwelcome distraction to the important work” of the enforcement division.

Ms. Oh’s resignation letter followed a ruling on Monday from Judge Royce C. Lamberth of the Federal District Court for the District of Columbia over the conduct of Exxon’s lawyers during a civil case involving claims of human rights abuses in the Aceh province of Indonesia.

According to Judge Lamberth’s ruling, Exxon’s lawyers claimed without providing evidence that the plaintiffs’ attorneys were “agitated, disrespectful and unhinged” during a deposition. He ordered Exxon’s lawyers to show why penalties were not warranted for those comments.

The ruling did not single out any lawyers by name. Ms. Oh was one of the lead lawyers for Exxon.

The judge’s order also granted the plaintiffs’ motion that Exxon pay “reasonable expenses” associated with litigating their request for sanctions and with an accompanying motion to compel additional testimony from Exxon related to the deposition.

Ms. Oh’s resignation letter did not mention the Exxon case by name, but a person briefed on the matter confirmed that the ruling from Judge Lamberth had prompted her to step down.

Ms. Oh, a former federal prosecutor in Manhattan who worked for the elite firm Paul, Weiss for nearly two decades, was picked by Mr. Gensler to oversee the S.E.C.’s 1,000-attorney enforcement division on April 22. The same day, she filed a notice with the court in the Exxon case saying she had withdrawn from the matter because she had resigned from the firm to join the federal government.

The civil litigation involving Exxon is nearly two decades old and involves allegations by the plaintiffs that Exxon’s security personnel “inflicted grievous injuries” on them. The lawsuit was brought under the federal Alien Tort Claims Act, which enables residents of other countries to sue in the United States for damages arising from violations of U.S. treaties or “the law of nations.”

Mr. Gensler said in a news release that Melissa Hodgman, who had been the enforcement division’s acting chief since January, will return to that position. Ms. Hodgman has been an enforcement attorney with the agency since 2008. He thanked Ms. Oh for her “willingness to serve the country.”

Ms. Oh could not immediately be reached for comment.

Brad Karp, chairman of Paul, Weiss, said the firm would not comment on the matter because it involved ongoing litigation. “Alex is a person of the utmost integrity and a consummate professional with a strong ethical code,” he added.

Ms. Oh is a highly respected lawyer, but her selection had been criticized by the Revolving Door Project, a good-government group, because she had been in private practice for so many years and had defended some of the largest U.S. companies.

  • Apple said on Wednesday that its profits more than doubled to $23.6 billion in the most recent quarter. Apple said its revenues soared by 54 percent to $89.6 billion. As usual, the main driver of Apple’s success was sales of the iPhone, which rose by 66 percent to $47.9 billion, its steepest increase in years. In the latest quarter, iPhones accounted for 54 percent of Apple’s revenues.

  • Facebook said on Wednesday that revenue rose 48 percent to $26.2 billion in the first three months of the year, while profits nearly doubled to $9.5 billion. Advertising revenue, which makes up the bulk of Facebook’s income, rose 46 percent to $25.4 billion. Nearly 3.5 billion people now use one of Facebook’s apps every month, up 15 percent from a year earlier.

  • Ford Motor said on Wednesday that the global shortage of computer chips will take a greater toll on its business than previously expected and would likely cut its vehicle production in the second quarter by about half. Ford expects the shortage to lower its operating profit this year by $2.5 billion, to between $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion. The company made a $3.3 billion profit in the first quarter, a turnaround from a year ago when the company lost $2 billion as the coronavirus pandemic was starting to shut down much of the world’s economy.

Increased supply-chain and freight costs for cereal makers could translate into higher retail prices for customers.Credit…Sara Hylton for The New York Times

Before the pandemic, when suppliers raised the cost of diapers, cereal and other everyday goods, retailers often absorbed the increase because stiff competition forced them to keep prices stable.

Now, with Americans’ shopping habits having shifted rapidly — with people spending more on treadmills and office furniture and less at restaurants and movie theaters — retailers are also adjusting, Gillian Friedman reports for The New York Times.

The Consumer Price Index, the measure of the average change in the prices paid by U.S. shoppers for consumer goods, increased 0.6 percent in March, the largest rise since August 2012, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Procter & Gamble is raising prices on items like Pampers and Tampax in September. General Mills, which makes cereal brands including Cheerios, is facing increased supply-chain and freight costs that could translate into higher retail prices for customers.

At the beginning of the pandemic, companies were focused on fulfilling demand for toilet paper, cleaning supplies, canned food and masks, said Greg Portell, a partner at Kearney, a consulting firm. The government was watching for price-gouging, and customers were wary of being taken advantage of.

Now that the economy is beginning to stabilize, companies are starting to rebalance pricing so that it better fits their profit expectations and takes into account inflation. “This isn’t an opportunistic profit-taking by companies,” Mr. Portell said. “This is a reset of the market.”

Gary Gensler, the chair of the Securities Exchange Commission, has some expertise with cryptocurrencies.Credit…Kayana Szymczak for The New York Times

For many cryptocurrency supporters and investors, regulatory approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the United States represents the holy grail. It would allow the crypto-curious to get exposure to Bitcoin without having to buy the tokens themselves, signifying that digital assets are really, truly mainstream.

But it’s not meant to be — yet. On Wednesday, the Securities and Exchange Commission delayed a decision on a Bitcoin E.T.F. proposal from the investment manager VanEck, saying it needs more time but offering no other explanation.

Delay is not denial, and it may be a good sign, Todd Cipperman, the founder of the compliance services firm CCS, told the DealBook newsletter. When considering the concept of a crypto E.T.F. in 2018, the S.E.C. raised questions about investor protection issues and put a “wet blanket on the whole idea,” he said.

Now, crypto is much bigger, and Gary Gensler, who taught courses about blockchain technology at M.I.T., is chair of the S.E.C. His expertise doesn’t guarantee success for crypto E.T.F.s, but it will be easier for an expert in the field to approve them, Mr. Cipperman suggested.

The S.E.C. gave itself until mid-June, with the option to take more time, but it must decide before year’s end. The regulator has rejected every proposal to date, starting with the first Bitcoin E.T.F. pitch in 2013, presented by the Winklevoss twins, which was eventually dismissed in 2017 (and again in 2018). There are several E.T.F. proposals on the table now, including one from the traditional finance giant Fidelity.

Canada is moving faster, approving all kinds of crypto E.T.F.s, after allowing its first Bitcoin E.T.F. in February. Hester Peirce, an S.E.C. commissioner and vocal crypto champion, told DealBook earlier this month that she has been “mystified” by her agency’s response to some prior applications, which met the standards in her view. With more players now engaging in the process, approval could be looming — eventually.

The acceleration of the vaccine rollout will allow more Americans to return to restaurants.Credit…Ariana Drehsler for The New York Times

The first-quarter economic recovery was powered by spending. Specifically, by spending on stuff.

Consumer spending rose 2.6 percent in the first three months of the year, with a 5.4 percent increase in spending on goods accounting for most of the growth. Americans ramped up spending on cars, furniture, recreational vehicles and other long-lasting items, as well as on clothes and food. Spending on services, which has slumped throughout the pandemic, rose by a more modest 1.1 percent.

Services spending is likely to pick up in the second quarter, as the acceleration of the vaccine rollout allows more Americans to return to restaurants, airplanes and other activities that they avoided during the pandemic. The data released Thursday by the Commerce Department largely predates that surge.

What the first-quarter data does capture is the impact of two rounds of relief checks from the federal government. After-tax personal income, adjusted for inflation, jumped 12.7 percent in the first quarter, with the government payments accounting for most of the increase. There was a similar jump in income when the first round of relief checks hit last year, which was followed by a similar surge in spending on goods.

“To some extent, when people have money, they’re going to spend it,” said Ben Herzon, executive director of IHS Markit, a forecasting firm. “If they’re not spending on services because they’re not going to movies or amusement parks, they’re going to derive utility from goods.”

He said he expected goods spending to ease in the second quarter as services spending begins to rebound more strongly.

Americans still have plenty of cash to spend. Households were sitting on a collective $4.1 trillion in savings in the first quarter, up from $1.2 trillion before the pandemic began — although such aggregates can obscure the fact that many families have seen their finances wiped out by the crisis.

Ample savings and rising consumer optimism are giving businesses the confidence to bet on the future as well. Business investment rose 2.4 percent in the first quarter and is now above its prepandemic level. The housing market has been juiced by low interest rates and strong demand; residential construction spending rose 2.6 percent in the first quarter.

Categories
Business

Powell to Testify as Concentrate on Financial Ache Persists: Reside Updates

Here’s what you need to know:

Credit…Al Drago for The New York Times

After it rocketed higher last year, the United States’ official unemployment rate has fallen to 6.3 percent. But top economic officials are increasingly citing a different figure, one that puts the jobless rate at a far higher 10 percent.

The higher figure includes people who have stopped looking for work, and the disparity between the official rate and the expanded statistic underlines the unusual nature of the pandemic shock and reinforces the idea that the economy remains far from a full recovery.

The reality that labor market weakness lingers, a year into the pandemic, could come up again as Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, testifies before Congress starting on Tuesday. Mr. Powell is set to speak before the Senate Banking Committee at 10 a.m. Tuesday, then before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics tallies how many Americans are looking for work or are on temporary layoff midway through each month. That number, taken as a share of the civilian labor force, is reported as the official unemployment rate.

But economists have long worried that by relying on the headline rate, they ignore people they shouldn’t, including would-be employees who are not actively applying for jobs because they are discouraged or because they are waiting for the right opportunity.

Now, key policymakers are all but ditching the headline statistic, rather than just playing down its comprehensiveness. In an alternate unemployment figure, they’re adding back people who have left the job market since last February, along with those who are misclassified in the official report.

“We have an unemployment rate that, if properly measured in some sense, is really close to 10 percent,” Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said on CNBC last week. And a week earlier, Mr. Powell cited a similar figure in a speech about lingering labor market damage.

“Published unemployment rates during Covid have dramatically understated the deterioration in the labor market,” Mr. Powell said recently. People dropped out of jobs rapidly when the economy closed, and with many restaurants, bars and hotels shut, there is nowhere for many workers who are trained in service work to apply.

Mr. Powell will be testifying as Democrats look to pass $1.9 trillion in new economic relief, an effort that has raised concerns in some quarters about the potential for higher inflation. Mr. Powell has said he and his colleagues do not expect inflation to move much higher persistently, and has typically pushed for additional government support to help the economy through the pandemic.

Rates on longer-term government bonds — which serve as benchmarks for things as varied as mortgages and credit-card debt — have been grinding higher and investors will also be watching carefully for any hints at how the Fed is interpreting that increase.

A closed restaurant in Tampa, Fla. The Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, will testify before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday about the economic recovery.Credit…Eve Edelheit for The New York Times

The S&P 500 was set for a fourth straight of day losses on Tuesday. Stock futures indicated the index would fall 0.8 percent when the market opens, following European stock markets lower. Tech stocks have suffered some of the heaviest losses, and futures of the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, dropped 1.4 percent.

Stocks have dropped recently as a rise in U.S. inflation expectations and bond yields has raised concerns that the Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy sooner than expected, upending the easy-money policies that have helped bolster stocks during the pandemic.

The central bank’s policymakers have said they would look past a short-term rise inflation and keep supporting the economy, but investors will be listening for more details when Jerome H. Powell, the central bank chair, testifies before the Senate Banking Committee later on Tuesday and the House on Wednesday.

The official unemployment rate in the United States has fallen to 6.3 percent, but top economic officials are increasingly citing a figure that puts the jobless rate at 10 percent. The disparity reinforces the idea that the economy remains far from a full recovery.

  • Premarket trading indicates that tech stocks will continue their decline. On Monday, the information technology sector of the S&P 500, which includes Apple and Microsoft, dropped 2.3 percent, leading losses in the overall index. And the Nasdaq fell 2.8 percent.

  • Tesla shares dropped nearly 9 percent in premarket trading on Tuesday, after falling about 9 percent on Monday as Bitcoin prices also tumbled. Over the weekend, Elon Musk tweeted that prices of Bitcoin and Ether, the two largest cryptocurrencies, “do seem high.” A few weeks ago, the electric carmaker said it bought $1.5 billion in Bitcoin, sending prices of both soaring.

  • The Stoxx 600 Europe fell 1 percent, with tech stocks dropping the most.

  • The unemployment rate in Britain rose to 5.1 percent for the three months ending in December, 1.4 percentage points higher than it was a year earlier, official statistics showed on Tuesday. Job losses have fallen particularly hard on young people: The number of employees on company payrolls has declined by 726,000 in the past year, nearly three-fifths of these workers were under 25.

  • HSBC shares fell 1.8 percent in London after Europe’s largest bank said its pretax profit dropped 34 percent last year. It also announced plans to increase investments in Asia as it was “moving the heart of the business” there, including relocating some senior executives. The bank also said it would start paying dividends again.

Shoppers at the Macy’s flagship store in Manhattan’s Herald Square on Black Friday. <br />The retailer posted a net loss of $3.9 billion for the year that ended Jan. 31.” class=”css-11cwn6f” src=”https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/02/23/business/23econ-brf-macys/merlin_180519234_59704f20-46e2-42a5-bcb6-2ed11cacbd9d-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale” srcset=”https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/02/23/business/23econ-brf-macys/merlin_180519234_59704f20-46e2-42a5-bcb6-2ed11cacbd9d-articleLarge.jpg?quality=90&auto=webp 600w,https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/02/23/business/23econ-brf-macys/merlin_180519234_59704f20-46e2-42a5-bcb6-2ed11cacbd9d-jumbo.jpg?quality=90&auto=webp 1024w,https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/02/23/business/23econ-brf-macys/merlin_180519234_59704f20-46e2-42a5-bcb6-2ed11cacbd9d-superJumbo.jpg?quality=90&auto=webp 2048w” sizes=”((min-width: 600px) and (max-width: 1004px)) 84vw, (min-width: 1005px) 60vw, 100vw” decoding=”async”/><span aria-hidden=Shoppers at the Macy’s flagship store in Manhattan’s Herald Square on Black Friday. 
The retailer posted a net loss of $3.9 billion for the year that ended Jan. 31.Credit…Gabby Jones for The New York Times

Macy’s, the department store company that also owns Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury, said on Tuesday that its net sales in 2020 tumbled 29 percent to $17.3 billion, highlighting the toll that the pandemic has taken on mall chains and apparel stores.

The retailer, which is based in New York, swung to a net loss of $3.9 billion for the year that ended Jan. 31, from a $564 million profit the prior year. But the company said it “anticipates 2021 as a recovery and rebuilding year,” particularly after a better than expected fourth quarter and holiday selling season, which was profitable even as sales dropped by 19 percent.

With its hundreds of stores, Macy’s is often viewed as a barometer for the health of department stores, malls and American consumers. Even before the pandemic hit, Macy’s was under strain. Last February, the company said that it planned to close about 125 of its least productive stores over three years and cut about 2,000 corporate and support function positions. Sales in 2019 had fallen to $24.6 billion from $25 billion a year earlier, though it was profitable at the time.

On the second day of the DealBook DC Policy Project, we will hear from more policymakers and business leaders about the challenges for the coronavirus vaccine rollout, the future of financial regulation and the outlook for bipartisanship in polarized times.

Here is the lineup (all times Eastern):

12:30 P.M. – 1 P.M.

Karen Lynch took over CVS Health this month as the pharmacy chain takes center stage in efforts to fight the pandemic. It is working with the government to distribute the coronavirus vaccine in its stores, as well as in nursing homes and assisted-living facilities. To aid in those efforts, the company hired 15,000 employees at the end of last year, staffing up to deal with what President Biden has called “gigantic” logistical hurdles to the vaccine rollout.

2:30 P.M. – 3 P.M.

At the center of the recent meme-stock frenzy was the online brokerage firm Robinhood, which has attracted millions of users with commission-free trades but drew outrage among its users when it halted trading in GameStop and other stocks at the height of the mania.

Vlad Tenev, Robinhood’s chief executive, is fresh from facing hours of hostile questioning at a congressional hearing last week about his company’s business practices. Joining him to discuss what regulators should now do — if anything — is Jay Clayton, the veteran Wall Street lawyer who led the Securities and Exchange Commission during the Trump administration. From the beginning of his tenure, Mr. Clayton said that his mission was protecting “the long-term interests of the Main Street investor.”

5:30 P.M. – 6 P.M.

Senator Mitt Romney, Republican of Utah, crossed party lines to vote to convict President Donald J. Trump on articles of impeachment, twice. He is also drafting a bill with Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas, that would raise the minimum wage while forbidding businesses to hire undocumented immigrants. This is typical of Mr. Romney’s approach, speaking to concerns on both sides of the aisle in an era of stark partisan divisions.

HSBC’s headquarters in Hong Kong. The bank, which is based in London, derives more than half of its revenue from China.Credit…Jerome Favre/EPA, via Shutterstock

HSBC is deepening its focus on Asia as it looks to unload some of its troubled Western operations, the bank said on Tuesday.

Noel Quinn, the chief executive, said the bank would invest $6 billion to expand its wealth management and wholesale banking business in Hong Kong, China and Singapore over the next five years. He also said he was considering relocating some of the bank’s top executives to Hong Kong because it would be “important to be closer to growth opportunities.”

Underscoring the turn toward Asia, the bank, which is based in London, also said it was considering the sale of its U.S. retail banking network and was in talks with potential buyers for its French consumer banking unit.

HSBC, which derives more than half of its revenue from China, has come under increasing political pressure from China and Britain over its business operations in Hong Kong, the former British colony. Pro-Beijing lawmakers in the city have publicly pressured it to embrace the Communist Party’s firmer grip on Hong Kong. When some executives have pledged support to Beijing, British members of Parliament have hammered the bank.

The political focus on HSBC is unlikely to ease and any future public statement about plans to move top executives to Hong Kong could prompt further criticism from British lawmakers.

“We haven’t firmed up our plans yet,” Mr. Quinn said on a call with reporters. “But the majority of executives will remain in London.”

HSBC, which reported its profit before tax in 2020 fell by 34 percent to $8.8 billion compared with a year earlier, blamed the pandemic for its financial performance.

Ardagh’s can-making business has grown by working with several seltzer-based beverage companies, like White Claw and Truly Hard Seltzer.Credit…Richa Naidu/Reuters

The company that makes the aluminum cans used by LaCroix, White Claw and other beverage giants is spinning off that business in a deal that values the new company at $8.5 billion, the company announced Tuesday.

The deal by the Ardagh Group, which is based in Luxembourg, would be in the form of a merger with a special-purpose acquisition vehicle, or SPAC, backed by an affiliate of the Gores Group, a private equity firm based in California.

It is a bet on the continued growth of the can business, as companies increasingly weigh the environmental consequences of their products. Nestlé announced the sale of its water business for $4.3 billion this month, in part a move to shift away from water packaged in plastic. Aluminum cans are far easier to recycle than plastic bottles.

Ardagh will retain a roughly 80 percent stake in the company after the deal. Investors are contributing a $600 million private placement, while Gores is putting in $525 million in cash. The new company, Ardagh Metal Packaging, will issue $2.65 billion of new debt. Those proceeds will go to Ardagh.

The deal, involving an already-public company carving off a unit with the backing of a SPAC, is the latest twist on a SPAC transaction. The Gores Group’s experience in SPACs was part of its appeal to Ardagh as a buyer, said Ardagh’s chair, Paul Coulson.

The Gores SPAC, named Gores Holdings V, is the seventh such deal the group has done. “You don’t really want to be going to a surgeon and have him perform his first surgery,” Mr. Coulson said.

Ardagh generates more half its roughly $7 billion in annual sales from making cans for beverage companies. This past year, sales by the unit grew 2 percent, fueled by beverage sales and environmental awareness, while earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortization grew 8 percent. Ardagh will keep its glass packaging business.

For beverage companies, cans have become an increasingly important tool for branding, providing colorful and sleek packaging.

When Ardagh acquired its canning operation in 2016 for $3 billion, it did most of its business with legacy brands like large soda and beer companies. It has since worked with younger and faster-growing seltzer-based brands like White Claw, LaCroix and Truly Hard Seltzer to help charge its growth. To prepare for further expected expansion in the United States, it bought a factory in Huron, Ohio.

Globally, the company is considering growth in Europe and Brazil, where beer sales remain strong as consumers are increasingly shifting from tap to cans.

Shelly Ross found herself in a bureaucratic nightmare after requesting a second loan via PayPal for Tales of the Kitty, her San Francisco cat-sitting business.Credit…Anastasiia Sapon for The New York Times

Nearly a month into the second run of the Paycheck Protection Program, $126 billion in emergency aid has been distributed by banks, which make the government-backed loans, to nearly 1.7 million small businesses.

But a thicket of errors and technology glitches has slowed the relief effort and vexed borrowers and lenders alike, Stacy Cowley reports for The New York Times.

Some are run-of-the-mill challenges magnified by the immense demand for loans, which has overwhelmed customer service representatives. But many stem from new data checks added by the Small Business Administration to combat fraud and eliminate unqualified applicants.

Instead of approving applications from banks immediately, the S.B.A. has held them for a day or two to verify some of the information. That has caused — or exposed — a cascade of problems. Formatting applications in ways that will pass the agency’s automated vetting has been a challenge for some lenders, and many have had to revise their technology systems almost daily to keep up with adjustments to the agency’s system. False red flags, which can require time-consuming human intervention to fix, remain a persistent problem.

Numerated, a technology company that processes loans for more than 100 lenders, still has around 10 percent of its applications snarled in error codes, down from a peak of more than 25 percent, said Dan O’Malley, the company’s chief executive.

Nearly 5 percent of the 5.2 million loans made last year had “anomalies,” the agency revealed last month, ranging from minor mistakes like typos to major ones like ineligibility. Even tiny mistakes can spiral into bureaucratic disasters.

If confirmed, Wally Adeyemo will be a pivotal player in America’s economic diplomacy efforts.Credit…Leah Millis/Reuters

Wally Adeyemo, President Biden’s nominee for deputy Treasury Secretary, plans to emphasize the importance of rebuilding the United States’ alliances to combat China’s unfair trade practices and halt foreign interference in the country’s democratic institutions at his confirmation hearing on Tuesday, according to a copy of his prepared remarks, which were reviewed by The New York Times.

His remarks highlight the importance that the Biden administration is placing on multilateralism as it seeks to undo many of the economic policies put in place by former President Donald J. Trump.

Mr. Adeyemo will tell members of the Senate Finance Committee that Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen has asked him to focus on national security matters at the department. If confirmed, he will be a pivotal player in the country’s economic diplomacy efforts.

“We must reclaim America’s credibility as a global leader, advocating for economic fairness and democratic values,” Mr. Adeyemo will say.

Mr. Adeyemo is expected to be introduced at the hearing by Senator Elizabeth Warren, the progressive Democrat from Massachusetts. Ms. Warren, who established the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau before joining the Senate, worked with Mr. Adeyemo, who served as her first chief of staff.

Mr. Adeyemo will discuss the nexus between economic and national security, arguing that “Made in America” policies will make the country more competitive around the world. If confirmed, he is expected to conduct a broad review of Treasury’s sanctions program, which the Trump administration used aggressively, but often haphazardly, against Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and other countries.

“Treasury’s tools must play a role in responding to authoritarian governments that seek to subvert our democratic institutions; combating unfair economic practices in China and elsewhere; and detecting and eliminating terrorist organizations that seek to do us harm,” Mr. Adeyemo, a former Obama administration official, will say.

Born in Nigeria, Mr. Adeyemo emigrated with his parents to the United States when he was a baby and settled in Southern California outside Los Angeles. At the hearing, he will also talk about his working-class upbringing and the need to ensure that low-income communities and communities of color, which have been hit hardest by the pandemic, receive relief.

The coronavirus pandemic dealt a big blow to WeWork’s business.Credit…Kate Munsch/Reuters

Adam Neumann, the flamboyant co-founder of WeWork, and SoftBank, the Japanese conglomerate that rescued the co-working company in 2019, have in recent weeks made significant headway toward settling their drawn-out legal dispute, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. That battle has stalled SoftBank’s efforts to take WeWork public.

As part of its multibillion-dollar bailout of WeWork, SoftBank offered to pay $3 billion for stock owned by Mr. Neumann and other shareholders. Several months later, after the coronavirus pandemic had emptied WeWork’s locations, SoftBank withdrew the offer. Mr. Neumann then sued SoftBank for breach of contract.

SoftBank was already a big investor in WeWork when it withdrew plans for an initial public offering in 2019. Now, SoftBank has plans to combine WeWork with a publicly traded special-purpose acquisition company, a type of deal that has recently become a popular way of quickly bringing private companies public. The legal dispute between Mr. Neumann and SoftBank is a threat to such a deal because it leaves unresolved the question of how much control SoftBank has over WeWork.

The settlement talks, which were reported earlier by The Wall Street Journal, could still fall apart, the two people said. Under the terms being discussed, SoftBank would buy half the number of shares that it had originally agreed to, one of the people said. As a result, it would pay $1.5 billion, not $3 billion. Mr. Neumann would get nearly $500 million instead of almost $1 billion, but he would retain more of his shares.

Under Mr. Neumann, WeWork grew at a breakneck pace and was using up so much cash that it was close to bankruptcy before SoftBank stepped in. Under the management team SoftBank installed, WeWork has tried to cut costs by slowing its growth and negotiating deals with the landlords it rents space from.

When movie theaters reopen in New York City, masks will be mandatory, and theaters must assign seating to patrons to guarantee proper social distancing.Credit…Angela Weiss/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Movie theaters in New York City will be permitted to open for the first time in nearly a year on March 5, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo announced at a news conference on Monday.

The theaters will only be permitted to operate at 25 percent of their maximum capacity, with no more than 50 people per screening. Masks will be mandatory, and theaters must assign seating to patrons to guarantee proper social distancing. Tests for the virus will not be required.

Movie theaters were permitted to open with similar limits in the rest of the state in late October, but New York City was excluded out of concern that the city’s density would hasten the spread of the virus there.

The virus has battered the movie theater industry. In October, the owner of Regal Cinemas, the second-largest cinema chain in the United States, temporarily closed its theaters as Hollywood studios kept postponing releases and cautious audiences were hesitant to return to screenings. AMC Entertainment, the world’s largest movie theater chain, has increasingly edged toward bankruptcy.

The economic effects of the pandemic have been particularly felt in New York City, one of the biggest movie markets in the United States. Theaters in the city closed in mid-March, as the region was becoming an epicenter of the pandemic in the country.

While other indoor businesses, including restaurants, bowling alleys and museums, had been allowed to open in the city, Mr. Cuomo had kept movie theaters closed out of concern that people would be sitting indoors in poorly ventilated theaters for hours, risking the further spread of the virus.

Theaters that open will be required to have enhanced air filtration systems. Public health experts say when considering indoor gatherings, the quality of ventilation is key because the virus is known to spread more easily indoors.

Mr. Cuomo’s announcement was applauded by the National Association of Theater Owners.

“New York City is a major market for moviegoing in the U.S.; reopening there gives confidence to film distributors in setting and holding their theatrical release dates, and is an important step in the recovery of the entire industry,” the association said in a statement.

In a statement, AMC’s chief executive, Adam Aron, said the company would open all 13 of its New York City theaters on March 5.

The move came just days after Mr. Cuomo said that indoor family entertainment centers and places of amusement could reopen statewide, at 25 percent maximum capacity, on March 26. Outdoor amusement parks will be allowed to open with a 33 percent capacity limit in April.

The governor also said that the state was working on guidelines to allow pool and billiards halls to reopen after the state lost a lawsuit from pool hall operators. Those establishments will be allowed to reopen at 50 percent capacity with masks required, he said.

Cases in New York remain high despite climbing down from their January peak. Over the last seven days, the state averaged 38 cases per 100,000 residents each day, as of Sunday. That is the second-highest rate per capita of new cases in the last week in the country, after South Carolina.

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Health

Intense Power Coaching Does Not Ease Knee Ache, Research Finds

The idea made so much sense that it’s rarely been questioned: exercise to strengthen the muscles around the knee will help patients with osteoarthritis and make moving the inflamed joint easier and less painful.

Nearly 40 percent of Americans over 65 have knee osteoarthritis, and tens of millions of patients have been instructed to do these exercises. In fact, the American College of Rheumatology and the Arthritis Foundation recommend weight training regularly to improve symptoms.

Stephen Messier, professor of biomechanics at Wake Forest University, believed in the guidance. However, he decided to test the recipe in a rigorous 18-month clinical trial with 377 participants. The verdict appeared in a study published in JAMA this week: Weight training didn’t appear to relieve knee pain.

One group lifted heavy weights three times a week while another group tried moderate strength training. A third group received “healthy living” counseling and instruction on foot care, nutrition, medication, and better sleep practices.

Dr. Messier had expected that the group doing the heavy lifting would do the best and that those participants who received advice only would see no improvement in knee pain. However, the results were the same in all three groups. All reported a little less pain, even those who only received advice.

Some pain relief can be expected in the exercising patient. But why should those who haven’t trained also report improvement? “It’s an interesting dilemma we’ve gotten into,” said Dr. Messier.

A simple placebo effect could explain why they felt better, he said. Or it could be something that scientists call regression of the mean: arthritis symptoms tend to fluctuate and subside, and people tend to seek treatments when the pain peaks. If it decreases, as it would have been anyway, they attribute the improvement to the treatment.

“The natural history of osteoarthritis of the knee includes the growth and decrease of symptoms,” said Dr. Adolph Yates, vice chairman of orthopedic surgery at the University of Pittsburgh Medical School, unrelated to the study. “It is what makes the study of osteoarthritis knee interventions difficult.”

Dr. David Felson, professor of medicine at Boston University, argued that the study did not find any strength training to be useless. Instead, the trial showed that very aggressive weight training wasn’t helpful and could actually be harmful, he said, especially if the arthritic knees are bent in or out as usual.

Strong muscles can act like a vise, putting pressure on tiny areas of the knee that carry most of the load while walking. When Dr. Felson looked at the study data, he saw evidence that the high-intensity group had slightly more pain and poorer function.

Patients tend to resist the advice to exercise at all, said Dr. Robert Marx, Professor of Orthopedic Surgery at Weill Cornell Medical College in New York City: “You want a reason not to exercise and you asked, ‘Will it improve my arthritis? Will it improve my x-rays? ‘”

He tells them that the answer to their questions is no, but that exercise stabilizes the joints. While it’s not as effective for pain as anti-inflammatory drugs, “it’s a piece of arthritis treatment.”

For Dr. Messier, who has researched arthritis and exercise for over 30 years, the new findings are a bit of a departure. His first study, published in JAMA in 1997, found that exercise groups ended up having less pain than the control group, but that wasn’t really because the participants got better. It was because the control group got worse.

He also noted that half of the participants in his study were overweight or obese. “What if we added weight loss to the workout?” he asked.

He tried this in another study published in JAMA in 2013, which showed that a combination of weight loss and exercise provided more pain relief than either alone.

But he had long wondered if the intensity of the strength training was important. In previous studies, participants had used weights that lagged far behind what they could actually lift. The studies only lasted six to 24 weeks, and the patients showed only modest improvements in pain and function.

Despite the new, unexpected results, Dr. Messier still encourages patients to exercise, saying that doing so can prevent an inevitable decline in muscle strength and mobility. But now it seems clear that strength training with heavy weights offers no particular benefit, rather than a moderate intensity routine with more reps and lighter weights.

Arthritis is a chronic degenerative disease of the entire joint. “It’s busy,” said Dr. Messier. “It’s not just cartilage deterioration.”

But, he added, he believes the best non-pharmaceutical intervention for knee arthritis pain is 10 percent weight loss and moderate exercise.

Dr. Messier now plans to have his next study combine weight loss with exercise in people at risk for knee osteoarthritis in the hopes of preventing this debilitating disease from occurring.

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Health

Immediately the Man Couldn’t See. Was His Chest Ache Related?

Amazed at the detailed pictures in front of him, the man asked if the clots could be removed. They couldn’t, Wang told him; What has been done has been done. But it was important to find out where these clots came from, otherwise it could happen again. Blood clots like this usually come from either the heart or the arteries that run from the heart to the brain and eye. The CT done in the hospital showed his carotid artery. No clots there. You would have to look into the heart. Wang added that up to 40 percent of strokes fail to find the source of the clot.

The most effective way to see the heart in action is to have an echocardiogram, Wang told the man. Most of the time the echo is normal. However, when something does come up, it is often important information.

A second stroke is most likely within a few days of the first. That patient was still in that window. Wang sent the patient to the emergency room at Yale New Haven Hospital and sent a message to the doctor on duty. It seemed clear to him that this was indeed some kind of emergency.

Joshua Hyman was a fourth year medical student just starting an ultrasound elective in the emergency room. The attending physician Dr. Karen Jubanyik suggested seeing this new patient who was there for an Echo. Jubanyik gave the student a brief overview of the case. Hyman introduced himself to the patient, then asked if it was okay for him to look at his heart. It would not be the official response, Hyman told the patient, it was just a way for him, a student, to learn.

The patient agreed, and Hyman rolled the bulky machine into the tiny cubicle. He squirted gel on an ultrasound probe and placed it a few inches below the patient’s left collarbone, just behind the sternum, in the space between the third and fourth ribs. He was still learning this technology, but he loved how it can give you information about what is going on in a patient’s body faster and sometimes better than anything else. When the probe is in this position, you can usually see the light gray muscles of the two chambers on the left side of the heart pressing around a dark black center that is the blood. This is the best way to see the business side of the heart. where blood from the lungs is injected into the bloodstream.

What he saw instead took his breath away. In the middle of the dark pools of blood moved a huge bright ball that raced back and forth across the screen with every heartbeat. What was that? Hyman froze the picture and took a measurement. A normal heart is about the size of a fist. This hitting circle was the size of a kiwi fruit.

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Business

A Week Into Brexit, the Ache for U.Okay. Companies Has Arrived

“The things that turn out to be problematic are the things that we expected to be problematic,” Ms. Jones said. “Merchandise is all about the speed and accuracy with which people prepare the right documents.”

Many UK companies – at least 150,000 according to the UK Tax Service – have never traded outside the European Union and therefore have no experience of dealing with customs systems.

The situation in Northern Ireland is an additional wrinkle. Northern Ireland will remain partially in the European Union’s internal market, an exception that avoids a border with the Republic of Ireland but creates a border in the Irish Sea. Logistics experts say Trader Support Service, a free government service that helps businesses fill out customs forms to ship goods from England, Wales and Scotland to Northern Ireland, is overwhelmed.

Some companies anticipated cross-border problems with Europe and stocked up on stocks – such as auto parts and pharmaceuticals – before the end of the Brexit transition period. This has kept cross-border shipments at a fraction of their normal levels. In the next few weeks, when these stocks run out, business will pick up and delays exacerbated.

Another new problem facing large retailers with international locations is “rules of origin” which determine whether a product leaving the UK is “British enough” to qualify for duty free trade with the European Union. International retailers using UK locations as distribution centers are now finding that they cannot automatically re-export their products to their stores in the European Union without paying tariffs – even if the product is off the block.

For example, a company could not import jeans from Bangladesh or cheese from France into a hub in England and then forward it to a store in Ireland without export duties. The UK retail consortium said at least 50 of its members have faced such tariffs. Debenhams, a large but now bankrupt department store chain, has closed its Irish website due to confusion over trading rules.

As companies strive to catch up on the rule changes, what is Britain doing with the sovereignty and freedom it secured before leaving the European Union? The government has to decide how much it wants to deviate from the European rules, where it might want to deregulate and whether it wants to pay the price.

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Health

Moderna Covid vaccine unwanted effects: Fatigue, complications, muscle ache

Tony Potts, a 69-year-old retiree who lives in Ormond Beach, will receive his first injection as a participant in a Moderna-sponsored Phase 3 COVID-19 clinical vaccine trial on August 4, 2020 at Accel Research Sites in DeLand, Florida.

Paul Hennessy | NurPhoto | Getty Images

Fatigue, headaches, and muscle aches are the most common side effects of Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine, along with some rare symptoms such as persistent nausea or vomiting and facial swelling that are likely caused by the gunfire. That is based on new data released Tuesday by Food and Drug Administration.

On the positive side, people over 64, who are also among the most severely affected by the disease, were generally better tolerated than younger people.

Vaccine side effects are common. It’s actually an immune response that indicates the shots are working as intended, doctors say. Many doctors advise the public to prepare for some more severe side effects than usual with the Covid-19 injections than, say, a typical flu shot, and possibly to take a day or two off to recover.

Moderna’s vaccine, which was approved by FDA officials on Tuesday, is more than 94% effective and safe enough to meet agency requirements for an emergency, according to the report. However, the regulator’s analysis found that the vaccine was associated with common and unpleasant, but not necessarily dangerous, side effects.

More than 9 out of 10 participants who received the vaccine felt pain at the injection site, nearly 7 out of 10 felt tired, and about 6 out of 10 had a headache or muscle pain, the FDA said.

More than 44% of people who received the vaccine reported having joint pain and over 43% reported having chills. The FDA found that more serious “serious side effects” occurred in 0.2% to 9.7% of participants, “occurring more often after the second dose than after the first. Like Pfizer’s Covid vaccine that the FDA approved last week, Moderna’s vaccine also requires two shots, separated by a few weeks.

According to the FDA, nearly 15% of vaccine participants had a fever after the first or second dose.

Some side effects were tough to shake, although most were resolved within a week, the FDA said. Less than 6% reported symptoms that lasted for at least a week after the shot, but that were similar to the placebo group. Some of the study participants had a fever that lasted for more than a week. Seven were in the vaccine group and four were given the placebo, the FDA found.

The FDA said there were seven “serious adverse events” in the study, but none of them were fatal. Four were attributed to the vaccine by investigators and Moderna, including persistent nausea and vomiting, facial swelling, and rheumatoid arthritis.

The FDA staff also recommended that people receiving the vaccine be monitored for possible cases of Bell’s palsy. This isn’t necessarily a side effect, but it’s worth looking out for now that four of the 30,000 participants in the study contract this condition, which causes half of your face to fall off.