Tag: Newsom

Categories
Politics

Betting markets swing in favor of Gavin Newsom

Betting markets swing in favor of Gavin Newsom

California Governor Gavin Newsom makes a gesture as he speaks during a press conference at the San Bernardino Unified School District Office after attending Juanita B. Jones Elementary School in San Bernardino on Friday, August 6, 2021.

Watchara Phomicinda | MediaNews Group | Getty Images

The campaign to remove California Governor Gavin Newsom lost so much momentum over the past month that bettors are now saying the over 85% chance fails.

Political betting website PredictIt said the Democrats’ chances of staying in office after being dismissed on Sept. 14 reached their highest level since early July last week.

On Thursday, a bet on a successful recall (that is, a bet that Newsom would be ousted) on PredictIt cost 10 cents, up from 26 cents a week earlier and a high of 34 cents in early August. By Sunday the price had risen slightly to 14 cents.

Correct bets on PredictIt cash in at $ 1, so a 10 cents bet pays 90 cents should the recall prevail. The price of a bet in favor of a recall hasn’t closed below 10 cents since May 20, according to PredictIt. The low of the campaign a few days earlier was 8 cents in May.

Newsom and the Democratic Party have tried to make up ground as polls have shown the GOP to be more enthusiastic about voting in the recall, despite California being a reliably blue state. The California governor has had a boost from celebrities and high profile politicians like Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. Democrats are far more likely to return ballots than Republicans.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the former California attorney general and former US state senator, will be campaigning for Newsom this week. President Joe Biden, who is struggling with low poll numbers after a difficult military exit from Afghanistan and rising Covid-19 infections in large parts of the United States, has announced that he will campaign for Newsom.

The governor’s rosier outlook in recent days is reflected in the polls. FiveThirtyEight’s survey average shows Newsom 10.4 percentage points ahead of recall efforts (53% to 42.6%), down from 5.6 points at the end of August. A poll by the Public Policy Institute of California last week found that 58% of likely voters would vote against the recall.

Recall efforts gained momentum during the Covid pandemic, as critics expressed dissatisfaction with the state’s aggressive bans, school closings, and rising crime. Some corporations and wealthy technology managers and investors also left California and went to states with lower tax rates.

Newsom made a gift to its opponents in November. While the pandemic was still raging and stores were closed, photos emerged of an unmasked Newsom attending a party at the Napa Valley high-end French Laundry restaurant. By April of this year, the recall had garnered 1.6 million signatures, surpassing the number required to trigger an election.

Newsom supporters have been raising money lately and flooding the California airwaves to fend off the challenge. According to CALmatters, opponents of the recall raised $ 68.9 million, or six times as much as the pro-recall site.

If more than half of the voters say “yes” to the dismissal, the next governor will be the one of the 46 substitute candidates who receives the most votes in the second part of the ballot.

The betting markets don’t have much confidence in any of them.

Bets on Larry Elder, a conservative radio talk show host, have dropped from 25 cents on Aug. 24 to 13 cents. A bet on YouTube star and real estate entrepreneur Kevin Paffrath, who is running for Democrat, costs 4 cents compared to 13 cents in mid-August. None of the other candidates are over 1 cent.

A bet on Newsom to keep the gig dropped to just 68 cents in early August. It now sells for 89 cents.

SEE: California Governor Newsom is being recalled as organizers file signatures

Categories
Business

Harm by Lockdowns, California’s Small Companies Push to Recall Newsom

Hurt by Lockdowns, California’s Small Businesses Push to Recall Newsom

Small businesses across the country have suffered from shutdowns that sometimes flare up as suddenly as the coronavirus itself. Restaurants, gyms, mom and pop shops and spas have closed, some after months of trying to stay there.

The pain in California was acute. By September, nearly 40,000 small businesses had closed in the state – more than any other state since the pandemic began, according to a report compiled by Yelp. Half had closed permanently, according to the report, far more than the 6,400 that had permanently closed in New York.

Few of the pandemic decisions Mr. Newsom faced have been easy. California has suffered tremendously from Covid-19 with more than 3.5 million cases and 47,000 deaths. Los Angeles County, one of the hardest hit locations in the recent virus spill, has more than 1.2 million cases and 19,000 deaths.

Dan Newman, a political strategist for Mr. Newsom, said the governor is focused on coronavirus vaccinations and reopening the state. Mr. Newman accused “state and national GOP partisans” of “assisting this Republican recall program in the hope of creating an expensive, distracting and destructive circus”.

Dee Dee Myers, director of the governor’s office for business and economic development, admitted the pandemic “has hit our small businesses hard,” citing several government programs offering help. These include the California Covid-19 Small Business Aid Program, the California Rebuilding Fund, and the Main Street hiring tax credit.

Ronna McDaniel, chair of the Republican National Committee, said in a statement that Mr. Newsom “has proven he is absolutely unqualified to run the state of California.”

Small business anger is particularly strong in places like Los Angeles County, where Mr. Newsom received 72 percent of the vote in 2018, and neighboring Orange County, a more conservative area. A local business owner leading the movement to open up California’s economy is Andrew Gruel, 40, a chef who owns Slapfish, a seafood restaurant chain.

Categories
Health

California has recognized first case of recent Covid pressure recognized in UK, Newsom says

California has identified first case of new Covid strain identified in UK, Newsom says

In this file photo dated June 30, 2020, Governor Gavin Newsom removes his face mask before giving an update during a visit to Pittsburg, California.

Rich Pedroncelli | AP

California health officials have identified the state’s first case of a new and contagious strain of Covid-19 that was originally discovered in the UK.

The patient is a 30-year-old male from San Diego county who showed symptoms on Sunday, San Diego county officials confirmed on Wednesday.

“I don’t think Californians should feel like this is anything strange. This is expected,” said White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci, on Wednesday during a live Q&A session with California Governor Gavin Newsom. Fauci said other states are likely to identify their own cases of the new strain soon.

Nathan Fletcher, a supervisor for San Diego County, said the patient was tested for Covid-19 Tuesday morning. Because he had not traveled, state officials believe there are other cases of the new strain in the county, Fletcher said at a press conference after Newsom announced the case.

Fletcher urged residents to follow public health instructions over the next few days to prevent further strain on the county’s hospitals, which are “under tremendous stress” from an onslaught of Covid-19 patients.

On Tuesday, Colorado health officials confirmed the first case of the B.1.1.7 variant of coronavirus. During a news conference Wednesday, Colorado Governor Jared Polis said the state is investigating a possible second case of the new tribe.

Officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said earlier Wednesday that the new tribe could put pressure on the country’s hospitals, which are already overwhelmed with Covid-19 patients.

Dr. Henry Walke, the agency’s Covid Incident Manager, said the new variant appears to be spreading “easier and faster than other strains”, but it doesn’t seem to make people sick or increase their risk of death.

A particularly worrying aspect of the Colorado case was that the patient had not traveled, “suggesting this variant was transmitted person-to-person in the United States,” Walke told reporters on a conference call.

Some good news: The new variant doesn’t appear to affect the vaccines’ effectiveness or make diagnosis difficult with existing tests, Fauci told Newsom. The UK has also found that people who were already infected with previous strains of Covid-19 do not appear to be re-infected with this new variant.

Researchers have yet to determine whether the new strain may be resistant to monoclonal antibody treatment, which has successfully helped some patients recover from the disease, Fauci said. Unlike vaccines, which trigger an immune response that attacks different parts of the virus, monoclonal antibodies target a very specific component, according to the country’s leading infectious disease expert.

Monoclonal antibodies have shown promising benefits if the virus is detected early enough. President Donald Trump attributed Regeneron’s treatment for feeling better “immediately” when he was infected and finally hospitalized with Covid-19 in early October.

“We know that about it now, but we’re following this extremely carefully,” said Fauci, adding that they are studying the exposure at the National Institute of Health and a number of laboratories across the country.

– CNBC’s Will Feuer and Amanda Macias contributed to this report.