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Health

‘X’ Marks the Spot: Officers Map a Route Out of the Pandemic

At their regular pandemic response meetings over the past year, officials in Suffolk County, N.Y., found themselves returning, again and again, to questions of geography.

“One of the common questions I used to get was, ‘Where is it bad?” said Dr. Harsha Rajashekharaiah, the senior project coordinator for the county’s Covid-19 response. “Where is the Covid transmission bad? Where is the testing bad? Where should we improve? Where should we invest our resources?”

To find answers, Dr. Rajashekharaiah used geospatial data, brandishing brightly colored maps that pinpointed the exact neighborhoods where cases were rising or where testing rates were lagging.

And after inoculations began, he started using digital mapping tools — commonly known as geographic information system, or G.I.S., software — to explore how vaccination rates varied across the county and how they correlated with a variety of demographic factors.

Several patterns soon emerged on the color-coded maps. In March, for instance, magenta splotches on the western side of the county made it clear that vaccination rates were low in neighborhoods with a high share of residents who did not speak English well. After he presented the map to his colleagues, they quickly added Spanish and Haitian Creole language assistance to their county vaccine hotline.

Over the next few months, as vaccination rates rose in these neighborhoods, portions of the map turned to yellow or even green. “I cannot sit here and conclude that our G.I.S. system is the reason that this has happened,” Dr. Rajashekharaiah said. But, he added, “G.I.S. has been a very, very powerful tool for us to communicate these barriers.”

Amid the highly uneven rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, many health officials and community organizations are drawing upon geospatial data to plan their vaccination campaigns and track their progress in fine-grained detail. Esri, a California-based company that makes widely used G.I.S. software, says that hundreds of organizations around the world — including many U.S. states and more than 20 national governments — are using its digital mapping tools to help them get shots into arms.

“G.I.S. and mapping tools have been really important to helping these health departments get people vaccinated — to be more organized in the process, more streamlined and strategic and even tactical,” said Dr. Este Geraghty, the chief medical officer of Esri.

By allowing officials to quickly spot vaccine deserts, pinpoint high-risk populations and target their resources more efficiently, digital maps have become crucial tools in the effort to ensure that vaccination campaigns leave no neighborhood behind.

Coronavirus Pandemic and U.S. Life Expectancy

As the virus raced across Wisconsin in the spring of 2020, officials in Milwaukee County became concerned about its unequal toll. In late March and early April, for instance, Black residents accounted for 69 percent of the Covid deaths in the county despite making up just 27 percent of its population, according to a University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee report.

These disparities were front of mind when the Covid-19 vaccines were finally authorized. “We wanted to make sure that we were equitably distributing this vaccine,” said David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive.

They began categorizing census tracts according to their vaccination rates and their scores on a national “social vulnerability index.” The index uses data on 15 different social, economic and demographic factors — including the age, minority status and education levels of residents, as well as local poverty and unemployment rates — to calculate how susceptible a given community would be in the event of some kind of disaster, like a hurricane or a pandemic.

Then the officials displayed the results online on a color-coded map. In mid-March, when the county first released it, much of the city of Milwaukee was colored dark orange, signaling that the area had high levels of social vulnerability but low vaccination rates.

On the other hand, the suburbs, where the population is wealthier and whiter, were shaded a pale yellow, indicating that they had low scores on the vulnerability index but climbing vaccination rates. “And so there was this story of the haves and have-nots, or two different cities,” said Dr. Ben Weston, who oversees the medical aspects of the county’s Covid-19 response.

County and city officials began pouring resources into deep orange neighborhoods, prioritizing those residents for vaccine appointments, adding more vaccination sites in those areas and creating pop-up sites and events at churches, food pantries, libraries, schools and cultural centers. They also started a community ambassador program — the Crush Covid Crew — to train volunteers from those deep orange census tracts to talk to their neighbors about the vaccines and dispel misinformation about them.

Although vaccination rates in the most vulnerable areas still lag behind, they have more than tripled since mid-March. “The darkest orange communities are now gone,” Dr. Weston said. “So we’re making progress.”

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Aug. 1, 2021, 11:42 a.m. ET

The Count Me In initiative in Georgia — which was created by Stacey Abrams, the former Georgia Democratic candidate for governor — has taken a similar approach. But instead of focusing on vaccination rates, it mapped vaccination sites across the state and then overlaid data on potential barriers to vaccination, including a lack of computer access and low rates of car ownership.

The map revealed numerous potential trouble spots, particularly in rural, southwest Georgia. “We saw this very large concentration of folks that had very limited vaccine access,” said Ali Bustamante, a senior research associate at the Southern Economic Advancement Project, which runs the initiative with the nonprofit organization Fair Count. “There were very few vaccination sites, while at the same time they were facing huge access constraints.”

The groups partnered with vaccine providers to send mobile clinics to some of these vaccine deserts and began an all-out canvassing effort, borrowing the tools of a political campaign to encourage people to get shots. Volunteers ultimately made 79,000 phone calls, delivered vaccine information to 17,000 doors and helped book 4,500 vaccine appointments. “Particularly in rural areas, we have seen the vaccination gap close considerably,” Dr. Bustamante said.

Geospatial data is also critical for logistics. Carto, a cloud-based platform for analyzing geospatial data, has helped dozens of logistics companies around the world optimize their vaccine storage and transportation networks to get the shots distributed more quickly and efficiently, said Luis Sanz, the company’s chief executive.

And in Clackamas County in Oregon, G.I.S. data has become the backbone of efforts to vaccinate people who are homebound. “Because we are a large county with somewhat rural areas, we do have some transportation issues and access is a challenge for many of our residents,” said Kim La Croix, a public health program manager for the county. “Those mass vaccination sites were just not accessible to homebound seniors and homebound people with mental, developmental or physical disabilities.”

Understand the State of Vaccine Mandates in the U.S.

When residents call or email the county to request an at-home vaccination, staff members log their location, which pops up on a digital map. Then, when assigning specific appointment slots, they review the map, which displays the number and type of vaccines that have been requested across the county. The goal is to reduce nurses’ travel time, maximize the number of shots they give in a day and to minimize waste, by ensuring that the number of doses a nurse gives in a shift matches the number of doses in a vial.

In low and middle-income countries, basic geospatial data — about how many people need to be vaccinated and where they live — has been critical to the success of prior mass vaccination campaigns. About a decade ago, for instance, government officials and global health experts realized that polio vaccination teams in northern Nigeria were using inaccurate, hand-drawn maps.

“There were missing settlements, wrong settlement names,” said Emilie Schnarr, the Nigeria project manager for the Geo-Referenced Infrastructure and Demographic Data for Development, or GRID3, program. “And that was one of the reasons children were being missed.”

Credit…Inuwa Barau et al., Journal of Infectious Diseases

Without reaching these children, the highly contagious polio virus was likely to continue circulating. So in the years that followed, the Nigerian government, in partnership with several global health organizations, used satellite imagery and local field teams to create detailed, high resolution maps, filling in missing buildings, settlements, and local points of interest.

The maps helped Nigeria eradicate polio, which the country finally achieved last year. And GRID3, which grew out of these efforts, recently distributed updated maps to local officials across Nigeria, who are using them to help plan and track their Covid-19 vaccination campaigns.

They’re not alone. In March, five organizations that specialize in geographic data and information management — Alcis, CartONG, Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team, iMMAP and MapAction — joined forces to launch the Geographic Information Management Initiative for Covid-19 Vaccine Delivery. Their goal is to help 15 low-income countries, including Haiti, Sudan and Bangladesh, fill gaps in their geospatial data and then harness that information to get vaccines out to their residents.

The work, the say, will be of use not just for this pandemic, but for the delivery of all sorts of essential services, ensuring that local health authorities know where their citizens live and can help them meet their needs.

“To be on the map is to be acknowledged,” said Ivan Gayton, the senior humanitarian adviser to the Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team. “Every community in the world should be able to put themselves on the map.”

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Business

The Pan America Marks a New Period for Harley Davidson

Recent years have not been kind to Harley-Davidson. Its sales have sagged, its core customers have aged, and its push toward the electric future, while newly serious, has underwhelmed so far.

In 2019, the last full year unaffected by the coronavirus, Harley shipped 218,000 motorcycles, earning $424 million in net income on $5.36 billion in revenue, healthy enough but well off its glory days. Results from the first quarter of 2021 suggest the company, which is based in Milwaukee, may be turning a financial corner, but the reality is that not enough new buyers are entering the market to offset the riders aging out of it. Harley recently made its innovative LiveWire electric model the flagship of a free-standing brand, but electric sales won’t contribute to the bottom line until there’s a more affordable model that sells in higher volume.

The company openly acknowledged these headwinds as far back as 2018, when Matt Levatich, who was the chief executive, laid out his “More Roads to Harley-Davidson” strategy. A key part of this blueprint would be to poach customers from other brands, which meant branching out from Harley’s traditional (some might say stereotypical) beefy cruisers.

Perhaps the most daring proposal was a high-tech, high-performance “adventure touring” motorcycle named the Pan America, to be powered by a new Revolution Max engine, already in development. The response was skepticism — that any Harley would be too heavy and too expensive.

The Pan America was delayed a year, during which Mr. Levatich resigned under pressure from the company’s board and after five years of falling sales. He was replaced by another board member, Jochen Zeitz, who was previously the chief executive of Puma.

Mr. Zeitz grabbed the handlebar, replacing the “More Roads” strategy with a hard-nosed approach he called “Hardwire.” He cut overhead and staff, closed some foreign subsidiaries, reduced the number of U.S. dealers and cut inventories. Additionally, he reduced the pace of new model introductions and spun off an electric bicycle division.

The plan looked like retrenchment, and some industry observers wondered if the Pan America would even be released. But the new chief was just as determined to enter this market. The result, hitting dealerships now, is a bike that is definitely not your dad’s Harley-Davidson cruiser. The audacious 1,250-cubic-centimeter Pan America Special is a shot across the bow to the European manufacturers that have long dominated this niche market.

“Before you launch into a new category, you always get the doubters and the cynics, but I don’t really care about them,” Mr. Zeitz said in an interview. “Adventure and touring are in Harley-Davidson’s DNA,” he added. “We have not been active in the adventure touring market because we didn’t have a bike, but we sure have the history. We would not have been able to build this bike if it wasn’t in the DNA of the company.”

The adventure touring category traces its roots to 1980 when BMW began selling the R 80 G/S — a model inspired by motorcycles raced in the Paris-Dakar rally. Fast-forward 40 years and BMW’s R 1250 GS is still a best seller. You’ve seen them parked in front of your local cafe — tall, brawny motorcycles with knobby tires, often accessorized with rugged aluminum side cases. They’re motorcycles that seem to say, “Today I’m just having a latte, but tomorrow I’m heading for Tierra del Fuego.”

Fans just call them “ADV” bikes. They’re all flagship models that can hold their own on the autobahn, with long-travel suspensions capable of handling fire roads or worse; they all have advanced anti-lock brakes and traction control.

Another European manufacturer, KTM, sells a Super Adventure model that’s even taller. Ducati, known for sport bikes, offers its take on the category with the Multistrada. When Ducati recently introduced adaptive cruise control to motorcycles, it did so on the Multistrada V4 S Sport.

In February, Mr. Zeitz hosted a much-ballyhooed virtual launch of the Pan America on the company’s YouTube channel. To the surprise of skeptics, the weight (the base model is 534 pounds) and the price (from $17,319) seemed competitive. (Those figures were 200 pounds and $2,000 lighter than Harley-Davidson’s most popular heavy cruisers and touring bikes.)

Today in Business

Updated 

May 28, 2021, 12:54 p.m. ET

Of course adventure bikes aren’t ridden virtually. The asphalt, gravel, mud and sand they must take in stride are all too real. So once the coronavirus threat had abated, the company offered test drives at a remote camp in the Mojave Desert, about 100 miles north of Los Angeles. First impressions were made over hundreds of miles of paved and unpaved roads, jeep trails and an infamous stretch of treacherous deep sand.

The model provided was the Pan America Special (which is expected to outsell the base model about two-to-one). The Special has a more expansive electronics package and semiactive suspension. As tested, the bikes weighed about 574 pounds and carried a price tag of about $21,500.

The response this time was far from underwhelming.

“I didn’t really have doubts that the engineers could do a good job,” said Kevin Duke, the editor in chief at Thunder Press, who has been writing about motorcycles for 25 years. “But I was skeptical that they could enter a new market segment and be that good right out of the box.”

Mr. Duke was so impressed by his test ride that it changed his attitude about the company. “The news about Harley for the past couple of years has been quite pessimistic,” he said. “With the older demographic aging out, there was no real hint at what the company could do to gain market share, but this really changes it. The new motor is that good.”

Harley-Davidson calls itself the Motor Company. True to that slogan, engineers acknowledge that they created the motor first and then asked themselves what they could do with it.

The only thing the Revolution Max has in common with other Harley engines is that it’s a V-twin. It produces 150 horsepower and revs to 9,500 r.p.m. — roughly double the red line of its cruiser cousins. Forget the laconic “potato-potato” exhaust note of those slow-revving traditional cruisers; this one roars.

The new motor features a balance shaft so effective that engineers admitted to putting a little vibration back in so it would feel “like a Harley.” It features computer-controlled variable valve timing that is more sophisticated than anything else in the market. The result is a motor that’s ferocious when used aggressively but docile when it has to be, at slow speeds on tricky terrain.

Like the other motorcycles in this class, the Pan America offers a range of ride modes that adjust throttle response, anti-lock brake settings and traction control for rain, “street” or “sport” road settings, as well as two off-road settings. Owners can also create their own ride modes.

Harley raised the stakes with a first for any motorcycle: The Special’s semiactive suspension continuously adjusts to suit the weight of rider, passenger and luggage; terrain encountered; and riding style.

Adventure touring bikes need extra ground clearance and long-travel suspension. As a result, seat heights reach 37 inches — they’re intimidating, even for tall riders. A $1,000 Adaptive Ride Height option on the Pan America Special lowers the suspension as the motorcycle comes to a stop. It is a game changer for shorter or less-experienced riders.

Off-road performance drives bragging rights in the ADV category. But another thing that these motorcycles have in common with Land Rovers and Mercedes-Benz G-wagons — besides being rangy, rugged and expensive — is that they’re driven on paved roads 99 percent of the time.

ADV bikes are just as fun to ride on a winding road as any sport bike. Many motorcyclists graduate to ADVs when their knees, wrists and shoulders can no longer handle a crouched riding position. And unlike conventional road motorcycles, ADVs give riders the option of striking off on paths less taken. That’s why ADVs are popular in Europe (where Harley-Davidson would love to increase its market share of 3 to 4 percent) and becoming more popular here.

Before embarking on the Pan America project, Harley-Davidson surveyed its customers. Many of them already owned or were considering an adventure motorcycle. The Pan America gives those customers a made-in-America option. (The Revolution Max engines are manufactured in Milwaukee; the motorcycles are assembled in York, Pa.) Another upside to a Harley that the European makers can’t match: its extensive dealer network.

Every Harley dealer, roughly 600 of them, will carry the Pan America — a decision made easier because customers raced to put down deposits before the machines hit sales floors.

Under Mr. Zeitz, Harley-Davidson has been careful to build dealer enthusiasm. Dealers who hit certain targets have already cycled through Harley’s training camp in the Mojave, so they’ll be able to talk the talk when a new kind of customer walks through the door.

When those customers ride away, whether it’s to Starbucks or South America, the Pan America will be right at home.