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Business

Markets Slip as Britain Will get a New Prime Minister and Vitality Worries Develop

If the financial markets are sending a message to Britain’s new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, it is a worrying one.

Ms Truss, who was elected the next prime minister by Conservative Party members on Monday, faces enormous economic challenges as energy prices soar and the cost of living becomes increasingly unaffordable. As the outlook dims and a recession becomes more likely, the pound is at its lowest since March 2020 and nearing its lowest since 1985 against the dollar.

Elsewhere in Europe, markets started the week on shaky ground after Russian energy giant Gazprom said on Friday it would not resume natural gas flows between Russia and Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline as expected on Saturday. Natural gas prices soared and stocks plummeted.

Last month, the British pound fell 4.5 percent against the US dollar, its worst month in nearly six years, as the economic outlook worsened. Households have been told to expect their energy bills to rise by 80 percent in October and industry groups have warned there could be large-scale shutdowns by companies unable to afford the energy bills. The Bank of England has hiked rates by the most in 27 years, and traders are betting rates would need to rise much more to combat inflation, which has hit 10.1 percent despite forecasts of a recession become more frequent.

The pound was little changed at around $1.15 on Monday when Ms. Truss was announced as the new prime minister with a widely anticipated result. It has been steadily declining for over a year (since hitting $1.42 in June 2021) and is less than 1 percent from its lowest level since 1985. Yields on UK government debt, a measure of the cost of borrowing, have also skyrocketed. The 10-year bond yield approached 3 percent, its highest since early 2014.

Decision not to restart Russian gas flows through Nord Stream 1 Concerns have increased about Europe’s winter energy supply and how much consumption may need to be curtailed to avoid blackouts.

Dutch benchmark natural gas futures rose as much as 35 percent Monday morning and 24 percent late in the morning.

The euro was 0.3 percent weaker against the dollar on Monday, falling to 99 US cents on Monday. It fell below parity for the first time in two decades in mid-July and stayed around that level. The common currency has fallen nearly 13 percent against the dollar this year as an energy crisis loomed and the dollar appreciated as the Federal Reserve sharply hiked interest rates in the United States.

On Monday, the leading German index DAX fell by 2.7 percent and the Euro Stoxx 600 by 1.2 percent. In the UK, the FTSE 100 fell 0.6 percent.

In the United States, stock markets were closed for the Labor Day holiday.

Categories
Politics

Betting markets swing in favor of Gavin Newsom

California Governor Gavin Newsom makes a gesture as he speaks during a press conference at the San Bernardino Unified School District Office after attending Juanita B. Jones Elementary School in San Bernardino on Friday, August 6, 2021.

Watchara Phomicinda | MediaNews Group | Getty Images

The campaign to remove California Governor Gavin Newsom lost so much momentum over the past month that bettors are now saying the over 85% chance fails.

Political betting website PredictIt said the Democrats’ chances of staying in office after being dismissed on Sept. 14 reached their highest level since early July last week.

On Thursday, a bet on a successful recall (that is, a bet that Newsom would be ousted) on PredictIt cost 10 cents, up from 26 cents a week earlier and a high of 34 cents in early August. By Sunday the price had risen slightly to 14 cents.

Correct bets on PredictIt cash in at $ 1, so a 10 cents bet pays 90 cents should the recall prevail. The price of a bet in favor of a recall hasn’t closed below 10 cents since May 20, according to PredictIt. The low of the campaign a few days earlier was 8 cents in May.

Newsom and the Democratic Party have tried to make up ground as polls have shown the GOP to be more enthusiastic about voting in the recall, despite California being a reliably blue state. The California governor has had a boost from celebrities and high profile politicians like Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. Democrats are far more likely to return ballots than Republicans.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the former California attorney general and former US state senator, will be campaigning for Newsom this week. President Joe Biden, who is struggling with low poll numbers after a difficult military exit from Afghanistan and rising Covid-19 infections in large parts of the United States, has announced that he will campaign for Newsom.

The governor’s rosier outlook in recent days is reflected in the polls. FiveThirtyEight’s survey average shows Newsom 10.4 percentage points ahead of recall efforts (53% to 42.6%), down from 5.6 points at the end of August. A poll by the Public Policy Institute of California last week found that 58% of likely voters would vote against the recall.

Recall efforts gained momentum during the Covid pandemic, as critics expressed dissatisfaction with the state’s aggressive bans, school closings, and rising crime. Some corporations and wealthy technology managers and investors also left California and went to states with lower tax rates.

Newsom made a gift to its opponents in November. While the pandemic was still raging and stores were closed, photos emerged of an unmasked Newsom attending a party at the Napa Valley high-end French Laundry restaurant. By April of this year, the recall had garnered 1.6 million signatures, surpassing the number required to trigger an election.

Newsom supporters have been raising money lately and flooding the California airwaves to fend off the challenge. According to CALmatters, opponents of the recall raised $ 68.9 million, or six times as much as the pro-recall site.

If more than half of the voters say “yes” to the dismissal, the next governor will be the one of the 46 substitute candidates who receives the most votes in the second part of the ballot.

The betting markets don’t have much confidence in any of them.

Bets on Larry Elder, a conservative radio talk show host, have dropped from 25 cents on Aug. 24 to 13 cents. A bet on YouTube star and real estate entrepreneur Kevin Paffrath, who is running for Democrat, costs 4 cents compared to 13 cents in mid-August. None of the other candidates are over 1 cent.

A bet on Newsom to keep the gig dropped to just 68 cents in early August. It now sells for 89 cents.

SEE: California Governor Newsom is being recalled as organizers file signatures

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World News

Asia markets combined following massive miss in U.S. jobs knowledge

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US employment data released on Friday fell far short of expectations as the economy added just 235,000 jobs in August. Economists polled by Dow Jones had sought 720,000 new hires.

Meanwhile, in line with estimates, the unemployment rate fell from 5.4% to 5.2%.

“In our view, the setback in the labor market recovery and the rise in serious Covid infections will cause the FOMC to wait before announcing it will reduce its monthly security purchases. We now expect the FOMC to reduce its monthly security purchases by 10 billion at its November 3rd meeting, “Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts wrote in a Monday note.

US markets are closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

Currencies and oil

The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback versus a basket of its competitors, hit 92.164 after falling over 92.4 recently.

The Japanese yen was trading at 109.81 per dollar, stronger than the 110.1 levels seen against the greenback last week. The Australian dollar changed hands at $ 0.7433 after falling below $ 0.732 last week.

Oil prices were lower on the morning of Asian trading hours, with international benchmark Brent crude oil futures falling 0.91% to $ 71.95 a barrel. The US crude oil futures fell 0.88% to $ 68.68 a barrel.

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World News

Dow jumps 200 factors, S&P 500 hits report as Powell prepares markets for Fed’s bond taper this 12 months

Traders work on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, USA, 19 August 2021.

Wang Ying | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images

Shares rose on Friday, heading for a successful week as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell prepared the markets for the central bank to pull back on some of its monetary stimulus and said it will likely begin its monthly bond purchases in the amount of $ 120 billion this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 244 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to hit a record 4,505.16. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.1% to hit a record 15,102.70.

The three most important stock averages will all close the week in the green. The Dow is up 0.9% since weekday, while the S&P 500 is up 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite is up 2.5%.

The 10-year government bond yield featured in Powell’s speech this week eased slightly after the Fed chief made it clear that rate hikes would not follow immediately after the tapering ended.

“The timing and pace of the impending reduction in bond purchases will not be a direct signal of the timing of the rate hike, for which we have formulated a different and much more stringent test,” said Powell.

Powell also said inflation is solidly around the central bank’s 2% target rate, one of the targets of the Fed’s dual mandate. However, it “has a lot of ground to overcome” to meet its other goal of maximum employment, although there has been “clear progress” along the way, Powell added. The Fed has used the phrase “significant further progress” as a measure of when it will start tightening monetary policy.

Based on statements from other Fed officials, a reduction in the announcement could be made at the Fed meeting on September 21-22.

The financial market reaction on Friday is a sign that the central bank has so far been successfully preparing investors for their monthly $ 120 billion in 2013. Markets seem relieved that the Fed is not planning to hike rates anytime soon, said Michael Arone, Chief Investment Strategist for the US SPDR business at State Street Global Advisors.

“Rate hikes are far, far away and investors are excited about them,” he said. “I think Powell deserves credit for mastering asset reductions and avoiding a tantrum. The market appears to be well prepared for the reductions to begin.”

The speech also signaled that the Fed is not nearly as nervous about prices as some in the market and in Washington, said Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge.

“Powell spends most of the speech addressing inflation concerns,” he said of the speech, adding that Powell “is addressing concerns about rate hikes and telling markets that the threshold for rate hikes is much higher than a cut.”

Cornerstone Wealth’s chief investment officer, Cliff Hodge, noted that Powell held firm to the Fed’s view that increased inflation is temporary, despite the fact that the Department of Commerce on Friday reported the largest increase in consumer spending since 1991. The PCE index rose 4.2% in July on the same date last year and 0.4% on the previous month.

“He successfully threaded the needle to communicate that the taper is likely to begin this year while reiterating the idea that the taper is not a tightening,” Hodge said. “We believe that this September, subject to further setbacks from the Delta variant, is likely to result in a number of blowout jobs and set the table for the official reduction announcement at the FOMC meeting in September.”

Energy stocks led the S&P higher after being hit hardest on Thursday. Occidental Petroleum was up 7%, Cimarex Energy was up 6% and Marathon Oil was up 5%.

Workday’s shares were up 11% after reporting strong earnings and subscription income currently, up 23% year over year. Gap rose nearly 2% after the apparel retailer’s quarterly earnings report beat sales and bottom line, while Peloton stocks fell after the exercise equipment maker’s fourth quarter financial results missed Wall Street’s estimates. The peloton fell 8%.

The three major US indices closed the regular trading session lower on Thursday. The Dow had a four-day winning streak while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both broke a five-day winning streak.

Market participants also observed new developments in Afghanistan that appeared to weigh on investor sentiment. The Pentagon confirmed Thursday that explosions near Hamid Karzai International Airport in Afghanistan killed 13 US soldiers and injured 18.

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“The markets don’t like uncertainty and uncertainty in Afghanistan is high and feels like it is rising,” said Bob Doll, chief investment officer of Crossmark Global Investments.

The indices are on track to end the month higher. The Dow was up 1.4% in August. The S&P 500 is up 2.5% this month and the Nasdaq Composite is up 2.9%.

– Jeff Cox, Patti Domm, and Yun Li contributed to this report.

Categories
World News

Asia-Pacific markets rise; Hong Kong’s Hold Seng in bear territory

SINGAPORE – Asia Pacific stocks rose in trading Monday morning as investors look to the Hong Kong opening after the Hang Seng index plunged into a bear market last week.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.99% in early trading while the Topix index rose 1.29%.

Kospi from South Korea gained 0.78%. In Australia, the S & P / ASX 200 climbed 0.31%.

MSCI’s broadest index for Asia Pacific stocks outside of Japan traded 0.23% higher.

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Investors will be watching the Hong Kong market, which opens at 9:30 a.m. HK / SIN after the Hang Seng index fell more than 20% from its mid-February high through heavy losses last week as regulatory uncertainty over the outlook continues to cloud for Chinese technology companies.

Other factors that could weigh on investor sentiment include concerns about a possible withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus by the US Federal Reserve and the continued proliferation of the Delta-Covid-19 variant.

Currencies and oil

The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback versus a basket of its competitors, hit 93.485 after its recent surge from below 93.2.

The Japanese yen was trading at 109.85, stronger than levels above 110 against the greenback last week. The Australian dollar was trading at $ 0.7142 after falling above $ 0.729 last week.

Oil prices were higher on the morning of Asian trading hours, with international benchmark Brent crude oil futures rising 0.6% to $ 65.57 a barrel. US crude oil futures rose 0.48% to $ 62.44 a barrel.

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Health

David Roche on China Covid outbreak hitting progress, markets

Medical personnel work on the sixth round of covid-19 test since late July in Nanjing in east China’s Jiangsu province on Sunday, August 08, 2021.

Feature China | Barcroft Media | Getty Images

China has tightened Covid-19 measures to combat an uptick in daily cases — a move that could hold back the country’s economic growth and hit its stock markets, said veteran strategist David Roche.

Investor sentiment toward Chinese stocks has been dampened by Beijing’s regulatory crackdown on sectors including technology and after-school tutoring.

“Markets have got into the mode of thinking Covid is very … bad, but economic recovery (is) taking away lockdowns, removing social restrictions — that’s kind of the world recipe at the moment,” Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Tuesday.

“Well it’s very much not the world recipe in China for good reasons, and therefore markets have to come to terms with the fact that there are economic costs not only within China, but globally as a result of this,” he added.

I think China is in the process of exiting its big recovery story from Covid …

David Roche

president and global strategist, Independent Strategy

The country’s National Health Commission reported 143 new Covid cases in mainland China on Monday — the highest number of daily infections since January, according to Reuters. Chinese state media attributed the latest resurgence in infections to the highly transmissible delta variant.

Chinese authorities last week ordered mass testing in Wuhan city — where the coronavirus was first detected — and imposed widespread movement restrictions in major cities including Beijing.

Some economists have raised concerns about China’s “zero tolerance” approach to Covid, which refers to the country’s aggressive clampdown on any flare-ups in Covid cases. The approach, which includes strict lockdowns and mass testing, helped China keep previous outbreaks under control before the latest resurgence.

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But the delta variant is more contagious and could be more difficult to contain — and that could hurt economic recovery in China, economists have warned.

“If lockdowns and vaccination progress do not allow local economies to reopen by mid-August or early September we will need to revisit our 8.8% 2021 GDP forecast,” economists from Australian bank ANZ wrote in a Tuesday report.

China effect on the global economy

Any disruptions in the Chinese economy could affect global economic growth, said Roche.

The strategist explained that broader lockdowns across China could interrupt global supply chains – much of which are located in the country.

That could hit international trade, increase the costs of some goods, and raise inflation expectations around the world, he added.

Roche expects China’s year-on-year growth in the third quarter to slow to between 2% and 3% from the second quarter’s 7.9% expansion.

Over the longer term, China’s economic growth will settle at around 5% to 6%, according to Roche.

“I think China is in the process of exiting its big recovery story from Covid, which of course is ahead of the world … and is now converging with a long-term growth trajectory which is much, much lower than what people became used to in China,” he said.

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World News

Asia markets fall after Dow drops in a single day amid Covid resurgence fears

SINGAPORE – Asia Pacific stocks fell in trading Tuesday morning after Wall Street stocks tumbled overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting more than 700 points.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 lost 0.63% while the Topix index lost 0.79%. South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.31%.

Mainland stocks were lower in early trading, with the Shanghai composite falling 0.56% while the Shenzhen component lost 0.18%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was near flattening.

The S & P / ASX 200 in Australia lost 0.37%.

MSCI’s broadest index for Asia Pacific stocks outside of Japan was down 0.19%.

On Tuesday, China left its corporate and household credit benchmark rate unchanged – the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) remained constant at 3.85%, while the five-year LPR was also left at 4.65%. According to Reuters, the majority of traders and analysts in a quick poll expected that both the one-year and five-year LPR would not change.

The markets in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are closed on Tuesday for public holidays.

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Wall Street decline

Overnight in the States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 725.81 points to 33,962.04 while the S&P 500 lost 1.59% to 4,258.49 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.06% to 14,274.98.

The losses on Wall Street came as concerns grew over the potential impact of a Covid resurgence on the global economic recovery. Several countries in Southeast Asia are struggling with infection resurgence, and Goldman Sachs recently lowered its 2021 growth projections for most of the region.

Currencies and oil

The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback versus a basket of its competitors, hit 92.849 after a recent rebound from below 92.8.

The Japanese yen was trading at 109.48 per dollar, stronger than levels above 110.5 against the greenback last week. The Australian dollar changed hands at $ 0.7339, up from $ 0.738 yesterday.

Oil prices were higher on the morning of Asian trading hours, with international benchmark Brent crude oil futures rising 0.52% to $ 68.98 a barrel. US crude oil futures rose 0.74% to $ 66.91 a barrel.

Categories
Business

Asia’s greatest and worst inventory markets in Might battle Covid: India, Vietnam, Taiwan

Pedestrians wearing protective masks walk past the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai, India, on Thursday, Jan. 21, 2021.

Dhiraj Singh | Bloomberg | Getty Images

India stocks were among Asia-Pacific’s top-performing markets in May, even as the country continues to grapple with tens of thousands of new cases every day.

For the month, the Nifty 50 rose 6.5% while the BSE Sensex was up 6.47%.

“The old phrase ‘go away and sell in May’ wasn’t true — at least for this month,” said Tuan Huynh, who is chief investment officer for Europe and Asia-Pacific at Deutsche Bank International Private Bank. “In the Indian case, I think it is relatively surprising.”

“The markets seem to like to differentiate between economic and obviously corporate earnings development versus then the rise of the new cases,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Tuesday.

India has registered more than 28 million infections so far and is the second worst-hit country in the world in terms of caseload, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Daily cases have eased from the record high of over 400,000 at the start of May — but continue to hover above 100,000. That’s still quite high compared to other countries in the world.

U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs is “overweight” on India, and expects stocks there to outperform.

“Markets tend to, as they say, live in the future and not in the present,” Timothy Moe, co-head of Asia macro research and chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC last week.

He pointed out that there’s a “very concerning humanitarian crisis” in terms of a Covid surge in India. However, “the market is basically looking through that and expecting the rate of infections to come down, which indeed has taken place.”

Asia’s best and worst performers

Meanwhile, Vietnam was Asia-Pacific’s best-performing market in May — the VN Index jumping 7.15% for the month.

The gains came despite Vietnam’s Covid situation taking a turn for the worse in recent weeks. State-run media reported that social distancing measures were imposed in the country’s business hub Ho Chi Minh City starting Monday this week.

Elsewhere, stocks in Taiwan took a beating in May as rising cases of domestic infections prompted tighter restrictions.

The Taiex in Taiwan was Asia-Pacific’s worst performing market in May, and fell 2.84% for the month.

Taiwan was once hailed internationally for its initial response to the pandemic, which enabled life in Taiwan to remain largely undisturbed compared to elsewhere. However, a recent spike in infections has resulted in measures such as mandatory mask-wearing and limits on indoor and outdoor gatherings.

Total infections in both Vietnam and Taiwan remain comparatively low globally. Vietnam has reported more than 7,300 cases while Taiwan has seen at least 8,511 infections, according to Hopkins data.

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Business

Immediately’s Enterprise and Markets Information: Dwell Updates

Daily Business Briefing

May 27, 2021Updated just nowCredit…Yuri Gripas/Reuters

Exxon Mobil was dealt a stunning loss at its annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday from an unlikely opponent: a small new activist investor focused on climate change, Engine No. 1. The hedge fund won at least two seats on the oil giant’s 12-member board. It may yet claim a third nominee when the counting is over.

For corporate America, the DealBook newsletter reports, the upset victory for Engine No. 1 and its allies is a clear sign that company boards and leaders need to pay attention to environmental, social and governance issues (known as E.S.G.) — or suffer rebukes.

Exxon was the first activist campaign for Engine No. 1, which was founded last year by an energy and tech investor, Chris James. Its head of active engagement is Charlie Penner, a veteran hedge fund executive who helped lead campaigns against companies like Apple while at Jana Partners.

Engine No. 1 began agitating against the oil giant in December, calling on the company to diversify away from fossil fuels and reduce its carbon emissions. But it began work on the campaign last March, courting large investors like public pension funds that held far larger stakes in Exxon, and thus had more sway. That’s how it parlayed a stake of just 0.02 percent into getting its preferred nominees on the company’s board.

Exxon’s shares rose 1.2 percent Wednesday.

The fund’s campaign was a bet on a confluence of events, according to two people with knowledge of the matter, including longstanding investor dissatisfaction with Exxon’s corporate governance and a growing appreciation on Wall Street for E.S.G.

That position appeared to be supported after the Exxon meeting. In a note explaining why it backed some of Engine No. 1’s board candidates, BlackRock — which owns nearly 7 percent of Exxon — said the company’s directors “need to further assess the company’s strategy and board expertise against the possibility that demand for fossil fuels may decline rapidly in the coming decades.”

Exxon had largely played down Engine No. 1’s concerns, and pressured the firm to drop its challenge after a much bigger hedge fund, D.E. Shaw, called off a campaign. But Engine No. 1 persisted, and also benefited from timing: It began its campaign while oil prices were still depressed by the pandemic. Had oil not rebounded in recent months, Engine No. 1 executives believed, all four of its proposed directors might have been elected, the people with knowledge of the matter said.

Exxon’s loss was just one sign on Wednesday that Big Oil is facing a climate reckoning. A Dutch court ruled that Royal Dutch Shell must speed up its efforts to cut its carbon emissions. And Chevron shareholders backed a proposal to compel the company to help customers reduce their own emissions.

Read moreAn Exxon Mobile oil refinery in Channahon, Ill. Shareholders say the oil giant should invest more heavily in renewables like wind and solar energy.Credit…Tannen Maury/EPA, via Shutterstock

Big Oil was dealt a stunning defeat on Wednesday when shareholders of Exxon Mobil elected at least two board candidates nominated by activist investors who pledged to steer the company toward cleaner energy and away from oil and gas.

The success of the campaign, led by a tiny hedge fund against the nation’s largest oil company, could force the energy industry to confront climate change and embolden Wall Street investment firms that are prioritizing the issue, The New York Times’s Clifford Krauss and Peter Eavis report.

Engine No. 1, the hedge fund leading the campaign, was seeking to defeat four of the company’s 12 director candidates. Its victory is a sharp rebuke to Darren W. Woods, Exxon’s chairman and chief executive, and is the culmination of years of efforts by activists to force the oil giant to change its environmental policies and approach. Engine No. 1 and its allies had argued that Exxon’s stance on climate change and the oil and gas business was not just bad for the planet but that it would hurt the company’s profits in the future as governments required businesses to reduce and eventually eliminate emissions of greenhouse gases.

Gregory Goff, former chief executive of Andeavor, a refiner, and Kaisa Hietala, an environmental scientist and former executive at Neste, a Finnish energy company that produces biofuels, were the two nominees declared winners. The company said the final results would not be publicly available Wednesday, and an independent inspector will determine the timing of an announcement.

“This isn’t really about ideology, it’s about economics,” Chris James, founder of Engine No. 1, said. “And economics is what has driven the adoption of some of the alternative fuel sources versus fossil fuels. We want there to be an acceptance of change.”

“We welcome the new directors,” said Mr. Woods, the Exxon head. “While there is still more to do, we are proud of the progress we have made to reduce emissions and clear plans for further reductions.”

“This signals a new era for the role of corporations in climate change and a new era for corporate governance,” said Erik Gordon, a University of Michigan business professor.

The vote reveals the growing power of giant Wall Street firms that manage the 401(k)s and other investments of individuals and businesses to press chief executives to pursue environmental and social goals. Some of these firms are run by executives who say they see climate change as a major threat to the economy and the planet. The loss of at least two seats on its board will almost surely energize activists to pressure Exxon, other oil companies and businesses in various industries that they believe are not doing enough to address climate change.

Read moreThe audience at an AMC theater in Manhattan in March. Shares in AMC have risen sharply this week.Credit…Evan Agostini/Invision, via Associated Press

U.S. stock futures fell slightly on Thursday before fresh data is released later in the day on state unemployment benefit claims and durable goods sales. The jobless claims are expected to fall for a fourth week to the lowest level since before the pandemic.

Investors will be watching jobs data closely in the United States, as a measure of how the economic recovery is progressing and how much monetary stimulus the economy still needs.

The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to keep inflation stable and reach full unemployment, and recent data has shown a sharp rise in prices. Policymakers say the increase is likely to be temporary, but they have been “talking about talking” about when the central bank will be ready to slow down its bond-buying program. The monetary stimulus has helped keep stock prices high.

That said, the strength of the labor market is being vigorously debated. In April, job gains slowed sharply and some employers have complained about struggling to fill vacancies even as millions of people remain unemployed.

Randal K. Quarles, the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision, said on Wednesday that he thought the central bank should start discussing how and when to slow its big bond purchases.

  • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.1 percent, creeping up for a sixth day and touching another record high.

  • Oil prices fell. Futures of West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, dropped 0.8 percent to $65.70 a barrel.

  • Shares in Eli Lilly fell 1 percent in premarket trading after the drugmaker said in a regulatory filling that it had received a subpoena from the Department of Justice for documents concerning its manufacturing plant in Branchburg, N.J. Reuters has reported about accusations of irregularities in quality control at the plant, where Lilly makes a Covid-19 treatment.

  • Shares in AMC, the big movie theater chain, dropped 6 percent and was one of the most traded stocks in premarket trading, while shares in video game retailer GameStop fell 4 percent. AMC shares have jumped 62 percent this week and GameStop rose 37 percent as the popular “meme stocks” picked up steam again.

  • Shares in Royal Dutch Shell fell 1.4 percent on Thursday after a Dutch court ruled on Wednesday that Shell, Europe’s largest oil company, must speed up its reduction of carbon dioxide emissions to tackle climate change. The court said Shell was “obliged” to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of its activities by 45 percent at the end of 2030 compared with 2019.

  • Exxon Mobil shares slipped in premarket trading after shareholders of the largest oil company in the United States elected at least two board candidates nominated by activist investors who pledged to move the company away from oil and gas to cleaner energy.

Read moreA job fair organized by High Road Restaurants in New York. New claims for state jobless benefits fell to their lowest weekly level since before the pandemic.Credit…Justin Lane/EPA, via Shutterstock

  • Initial claims for state jobless benefits fell last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

  • The weekly figure was 420,000, a decline of 34,000 from the previous week and the lowest weekly total since before the pandemic. New claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a federally funded program for jobless freelancers, gig workers and others who do not ordinarily qualify for state benefits, totaled 93,500, a slight decline from the prior week. The figures are not seasonally adjusted.

  • New state claims remain high by historical levels but are less than half the level recorded as recently as early January. The benefit filings, something of a proxy for layoffs, have receded as business return to fuller operations, particularly in hard-hit industries like leisure and hospitality.

  • More than 20 Republican-led states have said they will abandon federally funded emergency benefit programs in June or early July, saying the income is deterring recipients from seeking work as some employers complain of trouble filling jobs. Those programs include not only Pandemic Unemployment Assistance but also extended benefits for the long-term unemployed.

  • In a separate report, the government on Thursday issued its second reading for U.S. growth in the first three months of the year. It said that the economy expanded by 6.4 percent in the first quarter, the same rate as reported last month.

California’ s CA Notify app is based on the Apple-Google software. About 65,000 people have used it to notify others of possible exposures to the virus.Credit…Paresh Dave/Reuters

When Apple and Google collaborated last year on a smartphone-based system to track the spread of the coronavirus, the news was seen as a game changer. The software uses Bluetooth signals to detect app users who come into close contact. If a user later tests positive, the person can anonymously notify other app users whom the person may have crossed paths with in restaurants, on trains or elsewhere.

Soon countries around the world and some two dozen American states introduced virus apps based on the Apple-Google software. To date, the apps have been downloaded more than 90 million times, according to an analysis by Sensor Tower, an app research firm. Public health officials say the apps have provided modest but important benefits.

But Natasha Singer of The New York Times reports that some researchers say the two companies’ product and policy choices have limited the system’s usefulness, raising questions about the power of Big Tech to set global standards for public health tools.

Computer scientists have reported accuracy problems with the Bluetooth technology. Some of the app users have complained of failed notifications, and there has been little rigorous research on whether the apps’ potential to accurately alert people of virus exposures outweighs potential drawbacks — like falsely warning unexposed people or failing to detect users exposed to the virus.

“It is still an open question whether or not these apps are assisting in real contact tracing, are simply a distraction, or whether they might even cause problems,” Stephen Farrell and Doug Leith, computer science researchers at Trinity College in Dublin, wrote in a report in April on Ireland’s virus alert app.

Read moreMs. Guzman and Vice President Kamala Harris with President Biden when he signed an extension of the Paycheck Protection Program in March.Credit…Doug Mills/The New York Times

Isabella Casillas Guzman, President Biden’s choice to run the Small Business Administration, inherited a portfolio of nearly $1 trillion in emergency aid and an agency plagued by controversy when she took over in March. She has been sprinting from crisis to crisis ever since.

Some new programs have been mired in delays and glitches, while the S.B.A.’s best-known pandemic relief effort, the Paycheck Protection Program, nearly ran out of money for its loans this month, confusing lenders and stranding millions of borrowers. Angry business owners have deluged the agency with criticism and complaints.

Now, it’s Ms. Guzman’s job to turn the ship around. “It’s the largest S.B.A. portfolio we’ve ever had, and clearly there’s going to need to be some changes in how we do business,” she said in an interview with The New York Times’s Stacy Cowley.

“The S.B.A. needs to be as entrepreneurial as the small businesses we serve,”
she added. “What I really, truly mean by that is that a more customer-first approach.”

The S.B.A. is by far the smallest cabinet-level agency, with an annual operating budget that is typically less than half of what the Defense Department spends in a day. It was long viewed within the government as a sleepy backwater.

But when the pandemic sent unemployment claims soaring, Congress responded with a plan to give businesses money to keep their workers employed. Just seven days after President Donald J. Trump signed the $2.2 trillion CARES Act in late March 2020, the Small Business Administration began accepting applications for the Paycheck Protection Program.

Despite lots of speed bumps — including confusing, often-revised loan terms and several technical meltdowns — the program enjoyed some success. Millions of business owners credit it with helping them survive the pandemic and keep more workers employed.

Read moreWarehouses are sprouting up in fields in the Lehigh Valley, part of a boom driven by the area’s proximity to New York.Credit…Erin Schaff/The New York Times

In recent decades, the area in and around Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley has evolved from its agricultural and manufacturing roots to also become a health care and higher education hub.

Now there’s a new shift, The New York Times’s Michael Corkery reports.

Huge warehouses are sprouting up like mushrooms along local highways, on country roads and in farm fields. The boom is being driven, in large part, by the astonishing growth of Amazon and other e-commerce retailers and the area’s proximity to New York, the nation’s largest concentration of online shoppers, roughly 80 miles away.

But the warehouses are being built at such a dizzying pace that many residents worry the area’s landscape, quality of life and long-term economic well-being are at risk.

E-commerce is fueling job growth, but the work is physically taxing, does not pay as well as manufacturing and could eventually be phased out by automation. Yet the warehouses are leaving a permanent mark. There are proposals to widen local roads to accommodate the thousands of additional trucks ferrying goods from the hulking structures.

Developers are confident in the industry’s growth, however, particularly after the pandemic. Big warehouse companies like Prologis and Duke Realty are investing billions in local properties. Many of the warehouses are being built before tenants have signed up, making some wonder whether there is a bubble and if some of these giant buildings will ever be filled.

“People are calling it warehouse fatigue,” said Dr. Christopher R. Amato, a member of the regional planning commission. “It feels like we are just being inundated.”

But some, like David Jaindl, a third-generation farmer, said the concerns in the area about warehouses were unwarranted.

“They are certainly good for our area,” said Mr. Jaindl, who is developing land for several new warehouses. “They add a nice tax base and good employment.”

Manufacturing jobs in the Lehigh Valley pay, on average, $71,400 a year, compared with $46,700 working in a warehouse or driving a truck. The region is still home to large manufacturing plants that produce Crayola crayons and marshmallow Peeps candies.

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Business

Marqeta information S-1 as worth tops $16 billion on non-public markets

Marqeta is headquartered in Oakland, California.

Yalonda M. James | San Francisco Chronicle | Hearst Newspapers via Getty Images

Marqeta has grown into one of the hottest companies in digital commerce, although few consumers have ever heard of it.

His name becomes much better known. The company went public on Friday and announced in its prospectus to investors annualized revenue growth of 123% to $ 108 million in the first quarter, while net loss rose to $ 12.8 million from $ 14.5 million last year . USD decreased.

In 2020, annual sales more than doubled to $ 290.3 million and the company posted a loss of $ 47.7 million.

Marqeta was founded in 2010 and is based in Oakland, California. The company sells payment technology designed to detect potential fraud and ensure the proper routing of funds. The company issues bespoke physical cards that look like credit and debit cards and that DoorDash or Instacart contractors use to make checkout purchases in restaurants or supermarkets.

Many of Marqeta’s top customers have had record years as the pandemic shifted commerce to mobile devices. In addition to food delivery companies, Marqeta supports Square’s debit card for small business owners and the popular Cash app for peer-to-peer payments. Affirm and Klarna, who provide small dollar credit to consumers for purchases like bicycles and televisions, use Marqeta’s technology to move money around with their installment loans.

Larry Albukerk, who brokers pre-IPO shares on EB Exchange, said Marqeta shares traded for $ 33 to $ 35 per share on the secondary market. Based on a total of 484.4 million Class A and B shares as listed in the prospectus, the company values ​​the company at approximately $ 16 billion to $ 17 billion.

A year ago, Marqeta raised capital valued at around $ 4.3 billion.

“It’s definitely one of the hottest companies in the private markets,” said Alburkerk, who also owns several shares in Marqeta. “It’s been stable over the past two years and has recently become one of the most sought-after stocks to buy in front of the public.”

Albukerk said Marqeta is at the top with Stripe and Plaid on fin-tech stocks that investors seek, but Marqeta is the only one of the three to trade regularly because the other two companies are more restrictive on property transfers.

Marqeta competes on one side of the payment technology market with older providers such as Fiserv and FIS and on the other hand with modern providers such as Adyen and Stripe. Marqeta differs most through its card issuing service, which allows customers to create a very special physical or virtual card for their business partners.

The company says in the Risk Factors sections of its prospectus that its expansion in 2020 mirrored that of its customers in the e-commerce and grocery and grocery delivery sectors. As the economy reopens, spending patterns may change.

“Our net sales growth has increased over the past few periods as additional consumers have used these services,” the company said. “If this trend in consumer demand and spending patterns slows or reverses, as housing restrictions ease and the pandemic subsides, our net sales growth may be adversely affected.”

Marqeta was ranked 33rd on CNBC’s Disruptor 50 list last year.

CLOCK: Jason Gardner, CEO of Marqeta, on the partnership with Goldman