KAFR KANNA, Israel – Mansour Abbas, a conservative Muslim, is an unlikely political partner for the leaders of the Jewish state.
He is a proponent of political Islam. He heads an Arab party stemming from the same religious stream that gave birth to the militant Hamas movement. And for most of his political life, he never thought of supporting the right-wing parties that have led Israel for the most part for the past four decades.
If Abbas has his way, he could help appoint the next Israeli prime minister after next month’s general election, even if that means a right-wing alliance will come back to power. Tired of the peripheral role of Israel’s Arab parties, he hopes that his small Islamist group, Raam, will keep the balance of power after the elections and prove to be an inevitable partner for any Jewish leader who wants to form a coalition.
“We can work with anyone,” said Abbas in an interview on the campaign in Kafr Kanna, a small Arab town in northern Israel, at the point where, according to the Christian Bible, Jesus turned water into wine. In the past, “Arab politicians have been spectators in Israel’s political process,” he said. Now he added: “Arabs are looking for a real role in Israeli politics.”
The move of Mr Abbas is part of a wider change within the Arab political world in Israel.
Accelerated by the election campaign, two trends converge: On the one hand, Arab politicians and voters increasingly believe that in order to improve the lives of Arabs in Israel, they must seek power within the system rather than exerting external pressure. Regardless, mainstream Israeli parties recognize that they need to attract Arab voters to win a very close election – and some are willing to work with Arab parties as potential coalition partners.
Both trends are due to political pragmatism rather than dogma. And while the moment has the potential to give real power to Arab voters, it could backfire: Abbas’ actions will split the Arab vote, as will the overtures of Jewish-led parties, and both factors could increase the number of Arab legislators in the EU lower next parliament.
But after a strong performance in the last election, in which Arab parties won a record 15 seats, becoming the third largest alliance in parliament with 120 seats and still being excluded from the ruling coalition, some are looking for other options.
“After more than a decade with Netanyahu in power, some Arab politicians have suggested a new approach: if you can’t beat him, join him,” said Mohammad Magadli, a well-known Arab TV host. “This approach is brave, but also very dangerous.”
Palestinian citizens of Israel make up more than a fifth of the Israeli population. Since the founding of the state in 1948, they have always sent a handful of Arab legislators to parliament. But these lawmakers have always fought to make a difference.
Jewish leaders have not seen Arab parties as acceptable coalition partners – some right-wing denigrate them as enemies of the state and seek the suspension of Arab lawmakers from parliament. Arab parties have generally felt more comfortable in the opposition, rarely supporting center-left parties, whose influence has waned since the beginning of the century.
In some ways, that dynamic has deteriorated in recent years. In 2015, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu referred to the danger of a relatively high Arab turnout: “Arab voters flock to the polling stations in large numbers,” he warned on election day in order to scare his base for voting. In 2018, his government passed new laws downgrading the status of Arabs and officially designating Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people only. And in 2020, even his centrist rival Benny Gantz refused to form a government based on the support of Arab parties.
But a year later, when Israel goes to its fourth election in two years of political blockade, that paradigm changes rapidly.
Mr Netanyahu is now vigorously campaigning for Arab voters. Yair Lapid, a centrist candidate for the prime ministry, said he could form a coalition with Arab lawmakers despite belittling them early in his career. Two left-wing parties have promised to work with an alliance of Arab lawmakers to advance Arab interests.
According to polls, a majority of Israel’s Palestinian citizens want their lawmakers to play a role in government. Abbas says Arab politicians should gain influence by supporting parties that promise to improve Arab society. Another prominent Arab politician, Ali Salam, the Mayor of Nazareth, Israel’s largest Arab city, has expressed support for Mr Netanyahu, arguing that despite his previous comments, the Prime Minister is genuinely interested in improving Arab life.
“It used to be a sin in Israel’s political system to work with Arab parties or even Arab voters,” said Nahum Barnea, one of Israel’s best-known columnists. But Mr. Netanyahu has suddenly made Arabs “a legitimate partner for any political maneuver”.
“In a way, he opened a box that hopefully won’t be able to be closed from now on,” added Barnea.
Mr. Netanyahu’s transition was one of the most notable. He pledged more resources for Arab communities and the fight against endemic crime in Arab neighborhoods. And he has started to call himself “Yair’s father” – a reference to his son Yair, who also speaks lovingly about the Arab practice of referring to someone as the parent of their firstborn child.
At a turning point in January, he announced a “new era” for Arab Israelis at a rally in Nazareth and made a qualified apology for his earlier comments on Arab voters. “I apologized then and I apologize today,” he said before adding that critics “twisted my words.”
Critics say Mr. Netanyahu woos Arab voters because he needs them to win, not because he genuinely cares about them. This month he also agreed to add a far-right party to his next coalition whose leader wants many Arabs to be banned from running for parliament. And he has ruled out the formation of a government that depends on Mr. Abbas’ support.
Next month’s elections are expected to be as close as the previous three.
Mr. Netanyahu is currently on trial on corruption charges. If he stays in power, he could pursue laws that protect him from prosecution.
“What interests Netanyahu is Netanyahu,” said Afif Abu Much, a prominent commentator on Arab politics in Israel.
Likewise, Arab politicians and voters have not filed all complaints about Zionism and Israeli politics in the occupied territories. However, there is a growing awareness that problems in the Arab community – gang violence, poverty and discrimination in access to housing and land – cannot be solved without Arab politicians shaping politics at the highest level.
“I want different results, so I have to change the approach,” said Abbas. “The crises in Arab society have reached a boiling point.”
However, Mr Abbas’ plan could easily fail and undermine the little influence of Arab citizens.
In order to run on his new platform, Mr. Abbas had to withdraw from an alliance of Arab parties, the Joint List, whose remaining members are not convinced that they are cooperating with the Israeli right. And that split could dilute the collective power of Arab lawmakers.
Support for Mr Abbas’ party is currently close to the 3.25 percent threshold the parties need to secure entry into parliament. Even if his party scrapes over the line, there is no guarantee that a candidate for Prime Minister will need or seek the party’s support to secure the 61 seats required to form a coalition.
Mr Netanyahu, despite his previous incitement to Arabs, could also pull Arab voters away from Arab parties and reduce their influence. Even more could stay at home, disaffected by the divisions within the Arab parties and their inability to bring about meaningful change or to boycott a state whose authority they reject.
“I don’t believe in or trust any of them,” said Siham Ighbariya, a 40-year-old housewife. She became known for seeking justice for her husband and son, who were murdered at home by an unknown murderer in 2012.
“I’ve looked at all of them,” Ms. Ighbariya said of the Arab political class. “And nothing happened.”
For some Palestinians, participation in the Israeli government is a betrayal of the Palestinian cause – a criticism Abbas understands. “I have this deep personal conflict within me,” he admitted. “We have been in a conflict for 100 years, a bloody and difficult conflict.”
But it was time to move on, he added. “You have to be able to look into the future and create a better future for everyone, both Arabs and Jews.”
