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U.S. could by no means attain ‘true herd immunity,’ says Dr. Scott Gottlieb

U.S. may never reach 'true herd immunity,' says Dr. Scott Gottlieb

Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Friday he believes the United States may struggle to achieve “true herd immunity” to Covid, suggesting there will be coronavirus infections in the years to come.

However, the former commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration stressed that new cases alone should not be the metric that gets the greatest focus as more people are vaccinated against Covid.

“I don’t think we should think about achieving herd immunity. I don’t know that we will ever achieve real herd immunity where this virus simply no longer circulates,” said Gottlieb at “Closing Bell”. “I think it will always be circulating at low levels. That should be the goal of keeping virus levels down.”

Gottlieb, who serves on the board of directors at Covid vaccine maker Pfizer, expects the US to make significant strides toward that goal in the coming weeks.

“I think we’ll reach a point this summer where the spread of this virus will be extremely low. We’ll likely see the cases collapse pretty soon sometime in May. We’re already seeing it in parts of the country.” said Gottlieb.

Even so, according to Gottlieb, the US could flatten about 5,000 to 10,000 new coronavirus cases per day this summer, partly due to how commonplace Covid testing has become. “We’re going to see a lot of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections,” he said.

“I think the bottom line is that vaccination is dramatically reducing the susceptibility of the American population, and that’s what we really need to focus on,” said Gottlieb, who headed the FDA in the Trump administration from 2017 to 2019.

“We shouldn’t just focus on cases. There will be cases, but we should focus on how many people are hospitalized and get this virus. That will drop dramatically when we introduce the vaccines,” he said.

Public health experts have stressed throughout the pandemic that the more people in a population have immunity protection for a particular virus, the less easily it will spread. While vaccines have been shown to reduce transmission, Gottlieb isn’t the first to point out that achieving permanent herd immunity is likely to be a challenge for Covid.

The Chief Medical Officer of the White House, Dr. Anthony Fauci, has estimated that 75% to 85% of the population vaccinated against Covid would create an “umbrella” of immunity. “That could even protect the vulnerabilities that weren’t vaccinated or where the vaccine wasn’t effective,” he told CNBC in December, shortly after the FDA approved Pfizer’s emergency use of Pfizer.

About 41% of the US population have now received at least one dose of Covid vaccine, and 27.5% are fully vaccinated, according to the latest information from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. CDC data show that a total of more than 220 million doses were administered.

Gottlieb previously said that the US could theoretically get to a point where Covid, like other diseases like polio and smallpox, will be eradicated. “It is possible. We do not seem ready to do this and take the collective action that is required,” he told CNBC on April 16.

“It will take people who practice a civic virtue to get vaccinated, even if they individually feel low risk of infection,” he said. “Because even if they are at low risk, they can still get and transmit the infection, and you cannot eradicate a disease where you have a significant contingent of people who will continue to catch and transmit it.”

Disclosure: Scott Gottlieb is a CNBC employee and a member of the boards of directors of Pfizer, genetic testing startup Tempus, health technology company Aetion Inc., and biotech company Illumina. He is also co-chair of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Royal Caribbean’s Healthy Sail Panel.

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Dr. Scott Gottlieb on Fauci, Paul alternate on face masks

Dr. Scott Gottlieb on Fauci, Paul exchange on face masks

Americans should continue to wear face masks at this point in the pandemic to protect themselves from coronavirus transmission, said Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Friday.

Hopefully the guidelines should change in the coming months.

“We have to be careful this month. I don’t think this is the time to start lifting … the simpler remedies like wearing masks, things like that,” said the former Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration on ” Squawk Box “. “”

Gottlieb’s comments came in response to a heated exchange between the White House Medical Director, Dr. Anthony Fauci, and GOP Senator Rand Paul from Kentucky. In a Senate committee hearing, Paul, an ophthalmologist before going into politics, suggested to Fauci that it was “theater” to advise people to wear masks even after vaccinating against Covid.

“You want to get rid of the hesitation about the vaccine? Tell them they can stop wearing their mask after they get the vaccine,” Paul said, claiming there was a “practically 0% chance” that someone would was vaccinated, could get Covid-19. The senator had Covid a year ago.

Fauci forcibly pushes back against Paul and says: “I have a completely different opinion than you.” The nation’s leading expert on infectious diseases stressed that the presence of new variants of the virus makes it important to wear face masks in public, even for those who have been vaccinated.

Gottlieb, who headed the FDA in the Trump administration from 2017 to 2019, said March was a “difficult” month in the pandemic battle. New infections have declined dramatically since their peak in January, but he said the downward trend has started to plateau despite more Americans receiving Covid shots.

“In April and May things may look a lot clearer, and it’s obvious we can take our masks off,” said Gottlieb, who serves on Pfizer’s board of directors and one of the EU-approved two-shot Covid vaccines manufactures US for emergencies. “It’s not that obvious right now.”

At the same time, Gottlieb agreed with Paul’s view that there was something to give Americans to look forward to when they were vaccinated. Paul said to Fauci, “Give them a reward instead of telling them that Nanny State will be there for three more years and that you will have to wear a mask forever.”

Gottlieb said he’s not sure if public health experts, including Fauci, are suggesting that people wear masks for eternity. However, Gottlieb emphasized: “There must be light at the end of the tunnel.”

“I think we need to recognize that if the population is vaccinated and the general vulnerability of the population decreases, we can take more risks. This includes going out without masks and doing things in congregation environments,” said the ex-FDA- Boss said.

Nearly 23% of the US population have received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Just over 12% of the population is fully vaccinated. Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two doses for complete protection, while the vaccine recently approved by Johnson & Johnson is a single shot.

A number of states have lifted or eased restrictions on businesses in the pandemic in the past few weeks. Some governors, like Tate Reeves, governor of Mississippi, and Greg Abbott, governor of Texas, both Republicans, have also given up their state’s mask mandates.

While Gottlieb has previously said that mask requirements should be the final measure to mitigate Covid, the doctor said he sees a scenario in the not-too-distant future where Americans won’t need them in public.

“If infection rates go low this summer, which I think they will, and we have fully vaccinated 50% or 60% of the adult population, we won’t be wearing masks on the beach on July 4th. We won’t.” probably wearing masks indoors when we don’t want to, “said Gottlieb.

As the fall and winter roll around bringing in colder weather, coronavirus cases could increase, Gottlieb said, adding that “we may get some of the mitigation back on track”. However, he said, “I think a lot of people will still be wearing masks, probably me too, when I travel this winter.”

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100 million in U.S. can be inoculated by April, Gottlieb says

100 million in U.S. will be inoculated by April, Gottlieb says

President Joe Biden, according to Dr. Scott Gottlieb achieved his goal of vaccinating 100 million Americans early in his first 100 days in office.

“We will probably have 100 million Americans vaccinated by the beginning of April,” said Gottlieb, who was FDA chief during the Trump administration. Biden’s 100th day in office is April 30th.

While there aren’t enough Covid vaccines right now to meet demand, the nation will soon have the exact opposite problem. On Wednesday, Biden announced plans to purchase an additional 100 million doses of Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot vaccine. In addition to the doses of Pfizer and Moderna, it is more than enough to vaccinate any American.

Gottlieb said that he believes “the bigger problem” will be when demand subsides. To fuel demand in the US, he told CNBC’s The News with Shepard Smith that officials need to make the vaccine “more accessible,” and that includes running clinics where people don’t pre-register for a vaccine need time.

Nearly 33 million Americans are now fully vaccinated, which is roughly 13% of all adults in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The agency released new guidelines for the vaccinated Americans on Monday, but Gottlieb told host Shepard Smith the guidelines were too narrow.

“I think we need to prescribe a way in which people can begin to safely resume their normal lives and give instructions to people to do so and not be so prescriptive,” said Gottlieb.

Disclosure: Scott Gottlieb is a CNBC employee and a member of the boards of directors of Pfizer, genetic testing startup Tempus, health technology company Aetion Inc., and biotech company Illumina. He is also co-chair of the Healthy Sail Panel for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Royal Caribbean.

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Dr. Scott Gottlieb on Pfizer’s efforts on a 3rd Covid vaccine shot

Dr. Scott Gottlieb on Pfizer's efforts on a third Covid vaccine shot

Pfizer board member Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Thursday that the company is researching two different methods to provide vaccination protection against new coronavirus variants.

In an interview on Squawk Box, Gottlieb said the first approach focused on whether a booster shot using the current formulation of the two-dose vaccine would provide additional defense. Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech announced a test that was not examined until early Thursday.

“There is reason to believe that just boosting the existing vaccine against these new variants will give you extra protection,” said Gottlieb, a former Food and Drug Administration commissioner in the Trump administration.

The second endeavor is to modify the existing vaccine so that stronger immunity to virus mutations can be achieved, explained Gottlieb. The companies announced in a press release on Thursday that they are discussing the launch of this research study with regulators.

While new coronavirus variants affect public health officials, particularly the contagious strain first found in South Africa, Gottlieb said any change to the vaccine formulation would offer broad protection.

“What you want to do is not necessarily develop a vaccine that is specifically against [B.1.351], the change we’ve seen in South Africa, “said Gottlieb, who headed the FDA from 2017-2019.” You want to develop a protein sequence that is sort of a consensus sequence and that incorporates enough of the changes we’ve seen around the world that you have a vaccine that protects no matter what the virus does against itself. “

It is widely believed that the virus variant discovered in South Africa poses a greater challenge to existing vaccines than other new strains, such as the one originally discovered in the UK

For example, Johnson & Johnson reported that their vaccine was 72% effective in preventing symptomatic Covid in the US and 57% in South Africa, where the B.1.351 strain dominates. However, the vaccine provided 85% protection against severe Covid throughout the trial. Part of this has also been carried out in regions of Latin America where different variants exist.

The U.S. FDA is expected to use J & J’s vaccine soon after the agency’s emergency vaccine board meeting scheduled for Friday.

Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, which already have an emergency approval in the US, were tested in large phase three studies before the new variants were discovered. However, Pfizer and BioNTech conducted a study examining the variant found in South Africa. This indicated some reduction in antibody production, even though the vaccine was still neutralizing the virus.

In addition, Moderna has said that its two-dose vaccine appears to produce a weaker immune response against the South African variant, while adding that the antibody response remains at levels believed to provide protection.

Moderna announced Wednesday that it has shipped an optimized version of its vaccine to the National Institutes of Health to start various studies on variant protection. Similar to Pfizer, the company will also be testing a lower-dose booster shot of its current two-dose formulation.

Limited available doses have been a barrier to covid shots being given to more people once government approval has been granted. In the U.S. in particular, that situation has improved as companies ramp up production, and Gottlieb noted that J & J’s possible approval of the single-dose vaccine will also help expand access.

Should a booster shot be needed to ensure better protection against variants, Gottlieb was confident that the dosage might be available. “I don’t think we have to ration supplies if we want to give people a third booster in the fall,” he said.

“The challenge will be to think about the new vaccine variant and whether and when you would switch to this vaccine and how much you would produce,” said Gottlieb. “That will be a decision you need to make before these new variants of vaccines are likely to get approved. You may not want to switch all of your manufacturing, but you want to switch some of it.” He added, “You will likely have to make that decision sometime this summer.”

Disclosure: Scott Gottlieb is a CNBC employee and a member of the boards of directors of Pfizer, genetic testing startup Tempus, healthcare technology company Aetion, and biotech company Illumina. He is also co-chair of the Healthy Sail Panel of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Royal Caribbean.

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Recipients cannot let guard down, says Dr Scott Gottlieb

U.S. needs to vaccinate 3 million people per day to hit goal

Dr. Scott Gottlieb on Thursday warned coronavirus vaccine recipients not to abandon their guards immediately and urged CNBC to adhere to public health measures such as wearing masks.

The former commissioner for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said the advice is especially important to older Americans who are at higher risk of death or serious illness from Covid-19.

“I think for an elderly person who is susceptible to this virus, wait some time after the second shot until you probably have full protective immunity,” Gottlieb told Squawk Box. “I don’t think people should feel completely safe after the first shot.”

Both Covid vaccines, which have received emergency clearance from the FDA, require two doses. Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech developed one of the vaccines while Moderna makes the other. Gottlieb is on the Pfizer board of directors.

Around 10.3 million Americans received their first Covid shot on Wednesday morning, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. About 29.4 million cans were distributed.

The shaky vaccine comes as the nation continues to see high levels of coronavirus infections and more deaths from Covid-19. According to a CNBC analysis of the data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, the 7-day average of new daily cases in the country is 245,306. An average of 3,360 Americans have died of Covid each day in the past week. This is the second highest number ever recorded.

Vaccine recipients still need to take public health precautions as the US outbreak remains so significant and “infections are everywhere,” Gottlieb said. “If you are a vulnerable person, it is still very advisable to continue wearing a mask and taking precautions even after you had the second shot and believe you have complete protective immunity to the vaccine.”

“That doesn’t mean you have to hibernate and avoid seeing family,” added Gottlieb, who headed the FDA in the Trump administration from 2017 to 2019. “Maybe you can lean forward in this regard but wear a mask. Be more careful with these interactions, because in a high-circulation environment you are still at risk.”

With more and more Americans being vaccinated, Gottlieb should lower overall infection rates in the United States and significantly reduce the intensity of the epidemic. At this point, he said it made more sense to “loosen” some precautions.

“Hopefully this will be summer, spring, when these new variants fail to gain a foothold here in the US and change our trajectory,” he said, referring to the coronavirus strains originally found in the UK and South Africa believed to be more transmissible.

Researchers in Ohio said Wednesday they had discovered two new variants that likely originated in the United States

Last week, Gottlieb warned Americans that a return to pre-pandemic life was unlikely in 2021. For example, he told CNBC that public places may still require that the temperature be taken before entry.

“I just think that if you drive through an airport now after 9/11, things will be different, just as they are,” he said last week. “I don’t think masks will be mandatory next fall and winter when we can increase the vaccination rate and when these new varieties go away or don’t prevail. But I think a lot of people will want to wear masks, and that’s fine. “

Disclosure: Scott Gottlieb is a CNBC employee and a member of the boards of directors of Pfizer, the genetic testing startup Tempus, and the biotech company Illumina. He is also co-chair of the Healthy Sail Panel of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Royal Caribbean.

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U.S. doubtlessly going through ‘perpetual an infection’ of Covid, says Gottlieb

U.S. potentially facing ‘perpetual infection’ of Covid, says Gottlieb

Dr. Scott Gottlieb emphasized the importance of getting as many people as possible vaccinated and warned of a potentially bad spring and summer without protective immunity, as new variants of Covid are emerging worldwide.

“If we can’t achieve more protective immunity among the population, we could face a situation where we have some kind of continuous infection in the spring and summer as those variants take hold here,” said the former FDA chief in the Trump- Administration in an interview on CNBC’s “The News with Shepard Smith” Thursday evening.

Ohio State researchers found a new strain of Covid in the United States with mutations that scientists had not seen before. They also revealed that they had found a different strain identical to the highly communicable one from the UK. The researchers say these mutations “likely make the virus more contagious”.

Gottlieb warned that the variants could turn a relatively quiet spring and summer into a summer when we have more infections because these variants are now in circulation and spread more easily even in the warm months when we shouldn’t . I didn’t spread a lot of coronavirus. “

Long-time professor at Harvard University, Dr. David Edwards, echoed Gottlieb’s views on the timing and importance of an effective vaccine rollout.

“Time is of course important when facing an organism,” said Edwards, founder of FEND, a nasal hygiene mist developed for the coronavirus pandemic. “Our main goal this winter should still be to vaccinate as many people as possible with the very powerful vaccines we have today.”

The U.S. has distributed 30.6 million vaccines and placed 11 million of them in the arms of the people, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. However, an ensemble forecast compiled by the CDC predicted an additional 92,000 Americans will die from Covid in the next three weeks.

The United States has suffered 8,400 deaths in the past two days and nearly 40,000 deaths in less than two weeks of 2021, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins data. The pandemic kills an average of more than 3,300 Americans a day.

Gottlieb told host Shepard Smith that he was “encouraged” and “confident” by Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose vaccine that the company can scale its manufacturing to support the introduction of Covid vaccines in the US

“The early data looked encouraging,” said Gottlieb. “One of the things we saw in the data was that the antibody response continued to rise even after about two and a half months.”

Disclosure: Scott Gottlieb is a CNBC employee and a member of the boards of directors of Pfizer, the genetic testing startup Tempus, and the biotech company Illumina. Pfizer has signed a manufacturing agreement with Gilead to manufacture Remdesivir. Gottlieb is also co-chair of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Royal Caribbean’s Healthy Sail Panel.

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‘That is already within the U.S.,’ says Dr. Gottlieb

'This is already in the U.S.,’ says Dr. Gottlieb

Former FDA chief Dr. Scott Gottlieb warned that the highly contagious new mutation of Covid-19 found in the UK was “already in the US” with more than 40 countries banning entry and exit to the UK for 48 hours or more.

“I don’t think a travel ban will currently prevent this mutated strain from reaching the United States,” said Gottlieb. “We’re going to have an epidemic and it’s going to spread over the next three or four weeks. We’re going to peak and then infection rates will go down when the vaccinations are introduced.” “”

The new variant of Covid-19 is forcing parts of the UK back into lockdown. The government has placed the toughest restrictions in London and other areas of south-east England, and families can no longer gather as planned for Christmas. In an interview on CNBC’s “The News with Shepard Smith” Monday night, Gottlieb stated that the new mutation is likely due to selective pressure on the virus itself.

“As the virus continues to spread around the world, we will see more of these variants. It is therefore important that the population is vaccinated and that these infections are eradicated,” said Gottlieb. “The more infections you have, the more likely these variants are to spread.”

Scientists in the UK suggested that the variant of Covid makes the virus 50% more transmissible. However, there is currently no evidence that it is making the disease worse. Both Eli Lilly and Regeneron, who make the antibodies to treat Covid, said their drugs should be effective against the variant. Ugur Sahin, chief executive of BioNTech, said his company would investigate the mutation, but viewed the situation with “a certain degree of sobriety,” according to Reuters. BioNTech is Pfizer’s partner for the Covid vaccine. Gottlieb explained to Shep Smith why he believes vaccines will have to adapt at some point.

“The question is whether this virus will alter surface proteins in such a way that either the vaccines or previous immunity can be avoided, and there is no evidence that it currently does, but over time it will develop a way that it probably can avoid previous infections or vaccines to some extent so we will likely have to adjust our vaccines over time, “Gottlieb said.

The first deliveries of Moderna’s Covid vaccine hit hospitals in the United States today. Moderna’s vaccine is the second after Pfizer to be approved by the FDA. Moderna’s rollout is expected to double as the company plans to ship six million doses this week, compared to Pfizer’s 2.9 million doses last week. Pfizer’s vaccine requires a temperature of minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit or minus 70 degrees Celsius. Moderna can store its vaccine at minus 4 degrees Fahrenheit for up to six months.

Gottlieb said the current logistics for vaccine distribution are “good” but that some challenges may arise as the population receiving the vaccine expands.

“I think the challenge will be the last mile when trying to get these vaccines out into the community,” said Gottlieb. “Right now, in December, we are largely distributing these vaccines to healthcare workers through medical facilities, academic hospitals, and community hospitals. They know how to distribute a vaccine and how to find their healthcare workers.”

Disclosure: Scott Gottlieb is a CNBC employee and a member of the boards of directors of Pfizer, the genetic testing startup Tempus, and the biotech company Illumina. Pfizer has signed a manufacturing agreement with Gilead to manufacture Remdesivir. Gottlieb is also co-chair of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Royal Caribbean’s Healthy Sail Panel.