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Russia might invade Ukraine ‘within the blink of a watch’: Ukrainian international minister

If Russia decides to invade Ukraine, as feared by Western officials and experts, it could happen very quickly, said the Ukrainian Foreign Minister.

“Putin has not yet decided whether to conduct a military operation,” Dmytro Kuleba told CNBC on Thursday. “But if he does, things will happen in no time.”

In recent months, concerns have increased that Russia is planning military action against Ukraine. It follows Russian troop movements on the border and increasingly aggressive rhetoric against Kiev from Moscow.

However, Putin pointed his finger the other way and said in late November that Russia was concerned about military exercises in Ukraine near the border that threatened Moscow.

He has insisted that Russia be free to move troops into its own territory and has denied claims that the country may be preparing to invade Ukraine, calling such notions “alarmist”.

Ukraine and its allies in the US and Europe, as well as the NATO military alliance, disagree. All have warned Russia against aggressive action against Ukraine, but there are few signs of tensions easing.

“We [still] have Russian troops on our border. We have them in our occupied areas of Crimea and Donbass, and according to our assessments and assessments by our partners, and they agree, Russia already has the capacity to conduct offensive operations in the region … and we see that they continue to build up their forces “Kuleba told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble.

Ukrainian soldiers participate in a rehearsal of an official ceremony for the handover of tanks, armored personnel carriers and military vehicles to the Ukrainian Armed Forces as the country celebrates Army Day in Kiev, Ukraine, Dec. 6, 2021.

Gleb Garanich | Reuters

He added that Ukraine “was attacked by Russia at the lowest point of our strength in 2014,” referring to Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, a move of international condemnation and far-reaching sanctions against Russian business and state officials triggered. Russia is also accused of supporting pro-Russian uprisings in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine. However, it denies playing any role there.

Last week, US President Joe Biden spoke to his counterpart Vladimir Putin and warned the Russian head of state of an attack on Ukraine.

Experts say the US is running out of time to prevent further hostilities between neighboring countries, but how far the West will go to defend Ukraine is uncertain: Ukraine is not a member of NATO and not a member of the EU, despite it this strives to join both.

Russia vehemently rejects Ukraine’s possible future NATO membership and sees this as an expansion of the military alliance to its doorstep.

At his meeting with Biden, Putin was expected to ask the U.S. president for assurances that NATO – which has expanded greatly in the past 25 years to include many countries in Europe, including the former Soviet states in the Baltic States – would never expand would become Ukraine. No such assurances were given.

Kuleba said that if Ukraine had been a member of NATO in 2014 then “Putin would take care of his affairs” and there would have been “no war, no destruction” in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine and thousands of people living in the Eastern Ukraine died the conflict could have been spared.

When asked if Ukraine’s allies did enough to help, Kuleba said, “As long as Russian troops stay in Crimea and Donbass, neither of us is really doing enough. We can only judge by the bottom line. And that bottom line should be the trigger. ” Russia from Ukraine. However, it would have been much worse if we hadn’t had these relationships with our partners and our partners hadn’t changed their attitude towards Russia, “he said.

The EU is also concerned about Russia’s “aggressive” stance towards Ukraine and has warned Moscow that if invaded, it will pay a “heavy price”.

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On Wednesday, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told CNBC that “the military build-up around Ukraine is underway. So the big question is, what are they really up to?”

“Is it something you are trying or planning to attack Ukraine? Or is it just a bluff to negotiate a deal out of this situation? And we have to look very carefully at that.” She said.

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Biden administration has plans to require most international guests to be vaccinated.

The Biden administration is developing plans to require all foreign travelers to the United States to be vaccinated against Covid-19, with limited exceptions, according to an administration official with knowledge of the developing policy.

The plan, first reported by Reuters, will be part of a new system to be put in place after the current restrictions on travel into the country are lifted, but officials have yet to determine when that might be done.

President Biden has been under pressure for months to ease restrictions on people wishing to travel to the United States, particularly as other countries, including England, Scotland and Canada, relax their own measures.

But White House officials have said in recent days that there is no plan to lift current restrictions anytime soon, in light of the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant.

“Given where we are today,” Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, told reporters last week, “with the Delta variant, we will maintain existing travel restrictions at this point.”

That stance was reiterated on Wednesday evening by White House officials who said that there was no timetable yet for requiring foreign travelers to be inoculated.

“The interagency working groups are working to develop a plan for a consistent and safe international travel policy, in order to have a new system ready for when we can reopen travel,” the administration official, who was not authorized to publicly detail the plan, wrote in an email. “This includes a phased approach that over time will mean, with limited exceptions, that foreign nationals traveling to the United States (from all countries) need to be fully vaccinated.”

Travelers from Iran, China, Brazil, the United Kingdom, South Africa, India, the Republic of Ireland and Europe’s Schengen area — spanning 29 countries, city-states and micro-states — are currently barred from entering the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control, unless they are a U.S. citizen or they spend 14 days before arrival in a country that is not on that list.

The United States began restricting travel by foreigners in January 2020, when former President Donald Trump cut off some travel from China in the hope of preventing the spread of the virus. That effort largely failed.

But health officials pressed the Trump administration to expand travel bans to much of Europe during the first surge of the pandemic in the spring of 2020, and more countries have been added to the ban as the original virus and several variants have spread rapidly from country to country.

This week, the Biden administration said that it would keep in place Title 42, a public health rule that allows the government to turn back people attempting to enter the United States from its southern border.

The decision, confirmed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday, amounted to a shift by the administration, which had been working on plans to begin lifting the rule this summer, more than a year after it was imposed by the Trump administration.

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Dwell Updates: On Communist Celebration’s Centenary, Xi Jinping Warns In opposition to International Interference

Here’s what you need to know:

Credit…Ng Han Guan/Associated Press

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China’s leader, Xi Jinping, struck a confident posture on Thursday as he hailed the Communist Party’s role in leading his country toward greater prosperity, while warning foreign aggressors against attempts to undermine Beijing’s rise.

“For one hundred years, the Communist Party of China has united and led the Chinese people, writing the most magnificent epic in the history of the Chinese nation for thousands of years,” Mr. Xi said.

The centenary comes as China faces mounting international criticism over the Communist Party’s crackdown in Hong Kong and on Muslim minorities in the far western region of Xinjiang. Mr. Xi struck a nationalistic note as he described the party’s resolve to protect its interests.

“The Chinese people have never bullied, oppressed, or enslaved the people of other countries. They have not in the past, not now, nor ever will in the future,” he said.

“At the same time, the Chinese people will never allow any foreign forces to bully, oppress, or enslave us,” he added. “Whoever deliberately wants to do this will surely face bloodshed at the Great Wall of steel built by the flesh and blood of more than 1.4 billion Chinese people.”

The crowd of performers gathered on the square responded with loud cheers and thunderous applause.

Since becoming general secretary of the Communist Party in late 2012, Mr. Xi, 68, has made it increasingly clear that he sees himself as a transformative leader — in the footsteps of Mao and Deng — guiding China into a new era of global strength and rejuvenated one-party rule. And by many measures he is already the most powerful leader since Deng or even Mao, and presides over an economy and a military much stronger than in their times.

Few Chinese leaders from recent decades are more steeped in the Communist Party’s heritage than Mr. Xi.

He was born into a revolutionary family, endured the upheavals of Mao Zedong’s era, and began his career as a party official when Deng Xiaoping and other leaders opened up market reforms.

Before Mr. Xi came to power, many in China thought that he would be a milder figure, because his father, Xi Zhongxun, was a revolutionary veteran who in the early 1980s oversaw the beginnings of market reforms in Guangdong Province.

Xi Zhongxun had suffered decades of confinement and persecution after Mao turned against him, and his family was torn apart during Mao’s Cultural Revolution. Like millions of other youths at that time, the younger Mr. Xi was sent to labor in the countryside, and he spent seven years in a dusty village in northwest China.

But after coming to power, he pursued scorching crackdowns against official corruption and domestic dissent, and applied harsh measures to bring areas like Xinjiang and Hong Kong firmly under Chinese control.

Mr. Xi appears driven by the conviction that for China to secure lasting stability and prosperity, the Communist Party must reassert its control, and he must remain in command of the party.

In 2018, he abolished the two-term limit on the Chinese presidency, opening the way to remain in office — as president, party leader and chairman of the Chinese military — for many years to come. His next big step in that journey will be next year, when a Communist Party congress appears likely to acclaim him for a third term as party leader.

Performers gathering around a Communist Party flag during a gala show in Beijing on Monday ahead of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party.Credit…Ng Han Guan/Associated Press

China’s Communist Party on Thursday is celebrating the 100th anniversary of its founding, an event at which it is expected to argue that the country can keep ascending only if the party remains firmly in power.

The centenary is symbolically important for Xi Jinping, China’s leader, who is almost certain to claim a third five-year term as party leader next year.

In a speech, he asserted that China would never have achieved its present-day prosperity and power without the party’s struggles against foreign oppression and domestic exploitation.

The celebrations made virtually no mention of China’s setbacks over the past decades of Communist Party rule — such as Mao’s Cultural Revolution and the deadly crackdown against protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989.

Instead, the day’s stagecraft was focused on conveying an image of China as confident and secure while much of the world struggles to shake off the pandemic.

There was no military parade, unlike the enormous show of force that marked the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China in 2019. But it featured a military flyover at Tiananmen at the opening, together with a 100-gun salute.

Organizers assembled a carefully picked crowd at Tiananmen Square — of party members, workers, students and others — to listen to Mr. Xi’s speech.

Children rehearsing in Tiananmen Square before a parade marking the 100th  anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party.Credit…Roman Pilipey/EPA, via Shutterstock

BEIJING — China’s ruling Communist Party kicked off a tightly choreographed ceremony celebrating its 100th anniversary on Thursday with a 100-gun salute, as thousands of performers assembled on Tiananmen Square.

“For 100 years the Chinese Communist Party has led in the Chinese people in every struggle, every sacrifice, every innovation,” Mr. Xi said near the start of his speech from a deck on the Gate of Heavenly Peace. “In sum, around one theme — achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

In a rousing opening, the performers chanted slogans celebrating the party’s leadership, as Mr. Xi Jinping and other leaders watched.

“Listen to the party, be grateful to the party, and follow the party,” they shouted. “Let the party rest assured, I’m with the strong country!”

The streams of Communist Party youth groups in color-coordinated uniforms had filed on to the square from all directions at the beginning of ceremony as dawn rose.

They mostly wore polo shirts in lime green, pale orange or bright red. Most wore black or white trousers, but some of the young women were in matching poodle skirts that would not have looked out of place in the 1950s. A military brass band in dress blues filed into the back of the Great Hall of the People.

Thursday’s festivities did not include a military parade like the one in 2019 that celebrated the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, but the military still provided a backdrop. Squadrons of helicopters flew over carrying red banners and forming the figure 100, followed by fighter jets, including the country’s most advanced fighter jet, the J-20.

A few police officers stood on sidewalks in the downtown area around the square, which was closed to traffic. But the security was mostly unobtrusive, with numerous surveillance cameras perched like overweight pigeons on almost every pole.

Coronavirus precautions were understated for an outdoor event drawing many thousands of people to Tiananmen Square. The folding yellow and orange chairs in the main area of the square were not quite socially distanced, but still separated: 15 inches in between each chair.

The seated crowd extended only about three-quarters of the distance from the Forbidden City’s entrance gate, with Mao’s portrait back to the monolith in the heart of the square. But for the Communist Party’s elite, red chairs were mounted on viewing stands at the front of the square..

A military brass band played and a youth choir sang as a military honor guard brandished the national flag. Youths and rows of attendees behind them waved small, red Communist Party flags in a careful choreography.

Rain was expected later in the day, but for now, the sun was shining and the temperature rising through the low 70 degrees Fahrenheit.

Toni Li, a local professor who has been coming to July 1 anniversaries since she was a girl, said that the chair arrangement had reduced the density of the crowd from previous years. But since Beijing has not had any virus cases for months, she was unconcerned about any risk of infection at the gathering.

“I don’t worry about that; it’s safe here,” she said.

Visitors in front of a portrait of Xi Jinping at the National Art Museum during the exhibition “100 years toward greatness” on Wednesday.Credit…Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times

As the Communist Party of China celebrates the country’s rise, its international reputation continues to plummet, according to a new survey.

Large majorities in countries in North America, Europe and Asia have unfavorable views of China, the survey, by the Pew Research Service, found. They included 88 percent in Japan, 80 percent in Sweden and 76 percent in the United States.

Of 17 major countries and territories surveyed, a majority of respondents held favorable views of China in only two: Greece, at 52 percent, and Singapore, at 64 percent. Even in those two countries, majorities overwhelmingly agreed that China does not respect the personal freedoms of its own people.

Negative views of China are now at or near historic highs, even though perceptions of how China has handled the coronavirus pandemic have improved since last year. That appears to reflect its successes in containing the crisis, even as some of the nations in the survey bungled their efforts, including the United States and Britain.

The findings suggest that China’s economic and diplomatic behavior in recent years has played a bigger role in hardening views. China’s crackdowns in Hong Kong and Xinjiang have, for example, drawn widespread condemnation.

Countries like Australia have also faced economic coercion after criticizing China’s actions. As a result, 78 percent of Australians now have an unfavorable view, compared with only 32 percent who did in 2017.

Only a few weeks ago, the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, urged party leaders to “strive to create a credible, lovable and respectable image of China.”

The survey shows the scale of the challenge: In all the countries except Singapore, overwhelming majorities had little or no confidence in Mr. Xi’s handling of world affairs.

Keith Bradsher’s hotel room in Beijing, with the knapsack made for the centenary perched on the bed.Credit…Keith Bradsher/The New York Times

BEIJING — To cover the Communist Party’s anniversary celebration on Thursday, I have had to take three coronavirus tests in four days. I’ve been confined to a government-approved hotel. Officials have repeatedly checked my vaccination record, as well as my cellphone, for signs of a problematic travel history.

In China, major political events routinely feature suffocating security measures. But the pandemic has added a new dimension to the party’s preparations. China’s approach to virus outbreaks has been largely successful, though often draconian. And in the weeks leading up to the party’s centennial celebrations, the authorities have taken no chances.

Reporters invited to cover the event at Tiananmen Square in Beijing were told that we must stay at a hotel in the city’s northeast starting on Wednesday morning.

I could enter the hotel only after I had scanned two QR codes with my cellphone, indicating that I had not been anywhere with a recent Covid outbreak. At check-in, in addition to my passport, the clerk took copies of my vaccination certificate — two jabs in Shanghai of the Chinese-made Sinopharm vaccine — and the negative result of my most recent coronavirus test, on Tuesday.

I was directed to a conference room, where another official handed me a knapsack made for the centenary in the same hue of light-blue canvas worn by Mao’s soldiers during World War II. It contained a seat cushion, a fan, a souvenir notebook, a folding umbrella and a light- blue raincoat.

A nurse in a white protective suit with a face shield swabbed the back of my throat for yet another coronavirus test. Then a hotel employee took me up the elevator and told me that I would not be allowed to leave my floor on my own until after the centenary. I had to call the hotel operator to ask to be escorted down in the elevator for my meals. Lunch on Wednesday included beef, green peppers and broccoli served buffet style in the cafeteria.

The event starts at 8 a.m. on Thursday at Tiananmen Square, only a 20-minute drive away. Reporters had to gather in the hotel lobby at 2:45 a.m. for a 3 a.m. departure, and were warned that nobody would be allowed to go to a bathroom at the site from 7:30 a.m. onward.

Banners display messages celebrating the centenary of the Chinese Community Party and the anniversary of Hong Kong's handover to China atop a building in Hong Kong.Credit…Anthony Kwan/Getty Images

Hong Kong was wrapped in an extensive security bubble on Thursday as the city marked three political anniversaries that have helped transform it from a freewheeling international center of trade and finance to an increasingly constrained Chinese city.

Police officers fanned across the city to clamp down on any unauthorized gatherings and prevent people from gathering in Victoria Park, where the annual July 1 march traditionally begins.

July 1 is both the 24th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to Chinese control and the 100th anniversary of the founding of China’s ruling Communist Party. And just over one year ago, late on June 30, 2020, Beijing imposed a sweeping national security law on Hong Kong.

With Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s chief executive, in Beijing to participate in the party anniversary celebration, her chief deputy, John Lee, led a morning flag-raising ceremony in the same spot along Victoria Harbor where the 1997 handover was conducted after more than 150 years of British colonial rule.

Opera singers performed the national anthem as helicopters flew overhead and a flotilla of boats performed a water salute. Officers marched in goose-step, a distinctive style used by the Chinese army that replaced British style marching in the city this year.

Mr. Lee, a former police officer who was promoted last week to chief secretary, the city’s second most powerful leader, hailed Beijing’s leadership. “The central government’s original aspirations for Hong Kong remains unmoved and solved problems for Hong Kong,” he added.

Outside the convention center where Mr. Lee spoke, police surrounded four protesters who tried to march with a banner that read, “Free all political prisoners.”

“We just want to speak up, encouraging people to not give up and keep speaking up for justice in Hong Kong,” said Raphael Wong Ho-ming, the head of the leftist group League of Social Democrats, which organized the protest.

“At the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, we urge the CCP to keep its promises to give its power to the people.”

In the year since the security law came into effect, many of the city’s most prominent opposition politicians have been arrested, with dozens still held in jail. The electoral system was transformed, with directly elected seats cut and security agencies given vast power to vet candidates. Apple Daily, the city’s largest pro-democracy newspaper, was forced to close last week, and RTHK, the once proudly independent public broadcaster, has been gutted.

The law also authorized Chinese security agencies to openly operate in Hong Kong. In a rare interview this week, Zheng Yanxiong, director of the national security office in Hong Kong, issued a stern warning to the city’s judges, whose reputation for independence has come under pressure since the security law took effect.

The power of the independent judiciary is authorized by China’s legislature, Mr. Zheng told East Week, a pro-Beijing magazine. “It must implement the nation’s will and the nation’s interest, otherwise it will lose the premise of that authorization,” he said.

The Communist Party’s grip has grown increasingly visible in Hong Kong, where it was once outlawed. Mrs. Lam’s trip to Beijing for the anniversary is the first by a Hong Kong chief executive for the event. And the anniversary has been publicized on buses, trams and a set of commemorative stamps in Hong Kong.

A flag-raising ceremony on National Security Education Day in Hong Kong in April. Schoolchildren are now being taught to watch for dissent.Credit…Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times

In addition to the centenary of the party’s founding, July 1 also marks the anniversary of Hong Kong’s handover from Britain to China in 1997.

The passage of a contentious national security law in 2020 ushered in one of the most transformative years in the city’s history since the end of British colonial rule.

With each day, the boundary between Hong Kong and the rest of China fades faster.

The Chinese Communist Party is remaking this city, permeating its once vibrant, irreverent character with ever more overt signs of its authoritarian will. The very texture of daily life is under assault as Beijing molds Hong Kong into something more familiar, more docile.

Now, neighbors are urged to report on one another. Children are taught to look for traitors. Officials are pressed to pledge their loyalty.

Hong Kong had always been an improbability. It was a thriving metropolis on a spit of inhospitable land, an oasis of civil liberties under iron-fisted rule. After its return to China in 1997, the city was promised freedoms of speech, assembly and the press unimaginable in the mainland, in an arrangement Beijing called “one country, two systems.”

Hong Kong had always been an improbability. It was a thriving metropolis on a spit of inhospitable land, an oasis of civil liberties under iron-fisted rule. A former British colony that returned to China in 1997, the city was promised freedoms of speech, assembly and the press unimaginable in the mainland, in an arrangement Beijing called “one country, two systems.”

Freedoms once at the core of Hong Kong’s identity are disappearing. The government announced that it would censor films deemed a danger to national security. Some officials have demanded that artwork by dissidents such as Ai Weiwei be barred from museums.

China’s new might has also declared itself in Hong Kong’s business world. For decades the mainland’s economy had raced to catch up with that of Hong Kong, the financial hub so proud of its global identity that its government billed it as “Asia’s world city.”

Now, China’s economy is the booming one and officials are bending Hong Kong’s global identity increasingly toward that one country.

Posing for a photo in a Red Army costume at a new theme park in Yan’an.Credit…Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times

The anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party has given the country’s leaders an opportune moment to encourage citizens to visit sites central to the party’s founding.

At these sites, schoolchildren are told how the Red Army, later renamed the People’s Liberation Army, was created. Tourists gaze at an ensemble of chairs used by Xi Jinping, China’s leader, and other guests when they visited Mao’s home. Retirees take selfies with flower-adorned statues of Mao and Zhu De, the Red Army commander.

The centennial has also prompted China’s biggest property developers to cash in as they jazz up typically staid “red tourist” attractions, like dull exhibition halls and cave dwellings, and make them friendlier for the era of Instagram and TikTok.

This month, Dalian Wanda, a property developer, unveiled a Communist Party theme park in Yan’an. In it, mascots dressed in Red Army costumes parade down “Red Street,” a long shopping boulevard where visitors can take pictures and buy snacks and souvenirs.

The pilgrimages are in keeping with Mr. Xi’s call for Chinese citizens to learn from the party’s history. Even before he came to power in 2012, Mr. Xi said every “red tourist” attraction was equivalent to a “lively classroom that contains rich political wisdom and moral nourishment.”

With international borders still shut because of the coronavirus, Trip.com, a travel website that is popular in China, said this month that the number of bookings for “red tourism” attractions had more than doubled in the first half of the year from a year earlier. The company said it expected the numbers to climb ahead of the centennial celebration next week.

Beyond fueling party devotion and lore, “red tourism” has been good for business. In 2023, the industry’s revenues are expected to reach $153 billion, according to the Qianzhan Research Institute, a data consultancy. That represents an average annual compound growth rate of 14.1 percent from 2019 to 2023. Wanda said it was planning a second “red” attraction.

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Biden’s technique on the Russia-to-Germany gasoline pipeline complicated and wishes rationalization, says international coverage professional

Michael O’Hanlon, a Brookings Institution senior fellow, said he thinks the Biden administration’s decision to waive sanctions on a Russian company overseeing the construction of a controversial Russia-to-Germany gas pipeline was about improving relations with Germany.

“I believe they’re essentially deferring to Chancellor [Angela] Merkel to figure out some kind of a strategy that she thinks may work, and maybe get Russia to behave better over Ukraine and other places… But if that’s the strategy, I’d like to hear it explained and defended, not just sort of swept under the rug,” said O’Hanlon.

The Russia-to-Germany gas pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2, would bring natural gas from Russia to Germany and run under the Baltic Sea. Critics from both sides of the political aisle expressed concern that Russia could use the pipeline to gain leverage over European nations. 

Republican Senator Rob Portman slammed the decision and has said it was “contrary to our national interests, and at an especially volatile period, helps Russia while hurting Ukraine and our European Union allies.”

New Hampshire Democrat Jeanne Shaheen said in a statement that “completion of this pipeline poses a threat to U.S. security interests and the stability of our partners in the region.”

The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

O’Hanlon told CNBC’s “The News with Shepard Smith” that he agreed with the critics. 

“It’s confusing why you would give Russia more leeway, more leverage, and also the ability to bypass Ukraine in shipping gas into Europe,” said O’Hanlon. “It doesn’t smack me to be a good decision.”

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Health

Singapore’s overseas minister says Covid will not go away fully

Crowds thronged Singapore’s Orchard Road shopping belt to prepare for the festive season on December 12, 2020 amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

Zakaria Zainal | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

SINGAPORE – Covid-19 is “permanent” and subsequent waves of infection will occur normally in the coming years, Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan told CNBC.

“Covid-19 is endemic to humanity, which means it will never go away completely,” Balakrishnan told CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia on Monday.

“And the reason it won’t go away completely is because it’s spread around the world, has sufficient critical mass, the rate of mutations and new variants continues, and the level of human immunity increases and decreases as well,” said he said.

The minister, who was a doctor before entering politics, also warned that now could be a “more dangerous time” for vaccinated people who might be complacent, as well as those who are not vaccinated and have no protection against Covid.

Balakrishnan said vaccination is critical and that people who have received Covid shots develop fewer symptoms and have fewer serious illnesses, even when infected. However, vaccination alone is not the panacea for an “exponential explosion” in Covid cases.

That means measures such as social distancing and border restrictions may have to “come and go” in response to waves of Covid infection over the next two years, the minister said.

Singapore tightened social restrictions over the weekend after the number of cases increased in the community. Cumulatively, the country confirmed more than 61,300 cases and 31 deaths on Sunday, data from the Ministry of Health showed.

Balakrishnan said around 20% of Singapore’s population has been vaccinated, but the government has no defined threshold for achieving “herd immunity”. He explained that with the emergence of new variants of Covid, the level of protection required in a community will change so that the disease no longer spreads quickly.

It is likely that immunity to vaccinations will also decrease over time. So the point is, you can’t wait to say that you have reached the magical figure and suddenly you are immune and the mask has taken off and there are no restrictions.

Vivian Balakrishnan

Singapore’s Foreign Minister

“As new variants evolve and these new variants actually appear to be more contagious than the original strain, the level of herd immunity will mathematically change,” Balakrishnan said.

“It’s likely that immunity to vaccinations will also wear off over time. So the point is, you can’t expect to have reached the magical figure and suddenly be immune and mask off and not have any restrictions,” said he added.

Singapore-Hong Kong travel bubble

Singapore is a Southeast Asian city-state with no domestic air travel market. The country has reached an agreement with Hong Kong – a city that also has no domestic flight market – to create a travel bubble that will allow travelers to skip the quarantine.

When CNBC asked if the program should start on May 26th, Balakrishnan said, “As of now, the plan is yes, but we have to see how the situation develops over the next few days.”

The launch of the air travel bubble – originally scheduled for November 2020 – has been postponed several times after a surge in coronavirus cases in Hong Kong.

The two cities announced last month that the program will begin with one flight per day to each city with up to 200 travelers per flight.

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Business

Philippines targets overseas funding with Singapore-style tax regulation

A new Singapore-inspired tax bill will lower corporate taxes and boost foreign investment in the Philippines, Treasury Secretary Carlos Dominguez told CNBC as the country seeks to accelerate its economic recovery.

The Philippines’s so-called Business Recovery and Business Tax Incentives Act (CREATE), which came into force last month, aims to provide financial relief to businesses in need while increasing the country’s competitiveness in the region, he told CNBC on Tuesday.

The law lowers the corporate income tax rate – formerly the highest among Southeast Asian countries at 30% – to 25% for large companies and 20% for small companies.

It also unifies the government’s inbound investment program, bringing it closer to financial centers like Singapore, and giving the president more powers to give non-tax incentives to businesses, Dominguez said.

“We have modeled our program on the Singaporean system,” he said, referring to his coordinated strategy of attracting foreign investment and creating incentives.

“In the past we had 13 independent investment promotion agencies in the country that were poorly coordinated,” he continued.

People wearing protective masks are seen walking on a busy street in Manila, Philippines on March 20, 2021.

Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images

“Now we’re coordinating them and making sure these agencies offer incentives that are transparent, time-bound, performance-driven and that attract the investments we actually want in this country.”

The reduced corporate tax is the latest in a series of tax reforms introduced by President Rodrigo Dutertes PDP Laban Party since taking office in 2016.

The finance secretary said the plans would return cash to distressed small and medium-sized businesses, which can then invest in jobs and economic growth again. However, critics have questioned the merits of reducing already stressed public finances as the country battles the coronavirus pandemic.

“We estimate the portion we are giving up will be around 1 trillion pesos ($ 20.65 billion) over a 10-year period. However, we believe this is a time to do so,” Dominguez said.

Businesses need fiscal incentives, number one. Second, that it will attract more investment into our country over a long period of time

Carlos Dominguez

Minister of Finance of the Philippine Government

“Companies need fiscal incentives, number one. And second, that they will attract more investment into our country over a long period of time,” he said.

The Philippines have so far maintained their BBB ratings from Fitch Ratings, BAA2 from Moody’s and BBB + from Japan’s Rating and Investment Information Agency (R&I). This is despite the global downturn and its disproportionate impact on emerging markets.

“Not just the rating agencies, but the people who actually put their money where their mouth is, have invested in the long-term profitability and prospects of the Philippines,” he said, citing the strong bond trading activity.

The Finance Secretary’s comments come as the Philippines faces a surge in cases in its capital, Manila. Dominguez said the country’s resources are currently “sufficient” to handle the surge, adding that by the end of this year it had ordered enough vaccines to vaccinate its 70 million adult population.

“This Covid contagion is just a slip-up in our history. We still have our solid fundamentals, which represent our very strong fiscal and monetary system in the Philippines,” said Dominguez.

“We have a very young and talented workforce and so far we have improved the infrastructure. So this CREATE (law) will only add to our ability to attract more investment into this country.”

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Business

China’s Anger at Overseas Manufacturers Helps Native Rivals

Tim Min once drove BMWs. He considered buying a Tesla.

Instead, Mr. Min, the 33-year-old owner of a Beijing cosmetics startup, bought an electric car made by Tesla’s Chinese rival, Nio. He likes Nio’s interior and voice control functions better.

He also sees himself as a patriot. “I have a very strong affinity for Chinese brands and very strong patriotic emotions,” he said. “I loved Nike too. Now I see no reason for it. If there’s a good Chinese brand out there to replace Nike, I’ll be very happy about it. “

Western brands like H&M, Nike and Adidas have come under pressure in China for refusing to use cotton from the Xinjiang region, where the Chinese government has waged a widespread campaign to suppress ethnic minorities. The buyers vowed to boycott the brands. Celebrities dropped their advertising contracts.

However, foreign brands are also increasingly pressured by a new generation of Chinese competitors who manufacture high quality products and sell them through clever marketing to an increasingly patriotic group of young people. There is a term for it: “guochao” or Chinese fad.

HeyTea, a $ 2 billion milk tea startup with 700 stores, plans to replace Starbucks. Yuanqisenlin, a four-year low-sugar beverage company valued at $ 6 billion, aims to become China’s Coca-Cola. Ubras, a five year old company, wants to replace Victoria’s Secret with the non-Victoria’s product: non-wired, athletic bras that emphasize comfort.

The anger over Xinjiang cotton has given these Chinese brands another chance to win over consumers. When celebrities severed ties with overseas brands, Li-Ning, a Chinese sportswear giant, announced that Xiao Zhan, a boy band member, would become its new global ambassador. Almost everything Mr. Xiao wore in a Li-Ning advertisement sold out online within 20 minutes. A hashtag about the campaign was viewed more than a billion times.

China is experiencing a consumer brand revolution. The younger generation is more nationalistic and is actively looking for brands that can adapt to this confident Chinese identity. Entrepreneurs are rushing to build names and products that resonate. Investors are turning to these startups as tech and media companies’ returns decline.

When patriotism becomes a selling point, Western brands are put at a competitive disadvantage, especially in a country where global corporations are increasingly forced to follow the same policies as Chinese corporations.

China’s consumer protests are “a historic turning point and will have a long-term impact on Chinese consumers,” said Min. “Chinese consumers don’t want to eat the same crap that foreign brands have given them. It is important that foreign brands respect Chinese consumers as much as they respect Chinese brands. “

Foreign brands are far from finished in China. Its drivers helped make a jump into Tesla deliveries. IPhones are still very popular. Campaigns against foreign names have come and gone, and local brands that put too much emphasis on politics risk unwanted attention when the political winds change quickly.

However, the interest in local brands shows a clear shift. After Mao, the country produced few consumer goods. The first televisions that most families owned in the 1980s came from Japan. Pierre Cardin, the French designer, reintroduced fashion in 1979 with his first show in Beijing, bringing color and flair to a nation that wore blues and grays during the Cultural Revolution.

Chinese people born in the 1970s or earlier remember their first sip of Coca-Cola and their first bite of a Big Mac. We saw movies from Hollywood, Japan and Hong Kong for both the cabinets and makeup and the plot. We hurried to buy Head & Shoulders shampoo because the Chinese name Haifeisi means “seaworthy hair”.

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April 6, 2021, 7:10 p.m. ET

“We’ve gone through the European and American fad, the Japanese and Korean fad, the American streetwear fad, and even the Hong Kong and Taiwan fad,” said Xun Shaohua, who founded a sportswear company in Shanghai that competes with Vans and Converse.

Now could be the time for the fad in China. Chinese companies make better products. China’s Generation Z, born between 1995 and 2009, do not share the same attachment to foreign names.

Even People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s traditionally incumbent official newspaper, relies on branding. With Li-Ning, the company launched a streetwear collection in 2019. In the same year it published a report on Baidu, the Chinese search company called “Guochao Pride Big Data”. They found that when searching for brands in China, more than two-thirds were looking for native names, up from only about a third ten years ago.

As with so much in China, it can be difficult to say how much the Guochao Movement involves in politics. Building homemade brands fits in perfectly with the Communist Party’s desire to make the country more independent. The officials also want the Chinese to buy more: private household consumption only accounts for around 40 percent of Chinese economic output, much less than in the US and Europe.

Patriotism aside, entrepreneurs argue that their ventures are built on solid business foundations. There were similar trends in Japan and South Korea, where strong brands are now based. Local actors know better the capabilities of the country’s supply chains and how to use social media.

Mr. Xun’s sports brand has half a million followers on Alibaba’s Taobao marketplace and sells at the same prices as Vans and Converse, or even slightly higher. He said his brand competed by making shoes that would better suit Chinese feet and offering locally preferred colors like mint green and fuchsia. He sells exclusively online and works with Chinese and overseas brands and personalities, including Pokemon and Hello Kitty. At 37, he is the only one in his company who was born before 1990.

Guochao fashion has also revived older Chinese brands like Li-Ning. For many years, discerning city dwellers considered the brand, created by a former world champion gymnast of the same name, ugly and cheap. The characteristic red and yellow color combination after the Chinese flag was derisively referred to as “eggs fried with tomatoes”, an everyday Chinese dish. Li-Ning lost money. The shares lost.

Then the company presented a collection at New York Fashion Week in early 2018. Its angular look, combined with bold Chinese characters and embroidery, caused quite a stir at home. Shares have increased nearly tenfold since then. Now, Li-Ning’s high-end collections average between $ 100 and $ 150, just like Adidas’.

As ambitious as these businessmen are, almost everyone I’ve spoken to admitted that the Chinese brands still couldn’t compete with mega-brands like Coca-Cola and Nike.

Alex Xie, a marketing consultant who works with companies in China, used the sportswear industry as an example. Nike has a long lead over Chinese brands in research and development. It has a deep network of relationships in the sports world. It works closely with athletes to develop better shoes, sponsors many events and teams, including China’s national soccer, basketball and athletics teams.

“It just has a much closer relationship with its customers than any Chinese brand,” he said.

But for these western megabrands, the cotton dispute in Xinjiang is a major challenge that could help their Chinese rivals. While previous outrage over Western brands like the National Basketball Association and Dolce & Gabbana passed pretty quickly, this battle could go on, many people said.

“In the past, some Western brands have failed to understand or disregard Chinese culture, mainly due to a lack of understanding,” said Xun. “This time it’s a political problem. You have violated our political sensitivities. “

Then, like any savvy Chinese entrepreneur who knows which issues are sensitive, he asked, “Couldn’t we talk about politics?”

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World News

Chinese language overseas minister requires ‘non-interference’ between China, U.S.

The flags of China, the United States, and the Chinese Communist Party are displayed in a flag booth in the Yiwu Wholesale Market in Yiwu, Zhejiang Province, China on May 10, 2019.

Aly Song | Reuters

BEIJING – Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Sunday the US must lift “unreasonable restrictions” in order for the two countries’ relations to move forward under President Joe Biden’s administration.

Wang’s remarks come from the fact that tensions between the US and China have escalated in recent years under former President Donald Trump, whose term of office ended in January. So far, the Biden government has maintained a tough stance on China – calling the country a more assertive “competitor” – and has raised concerns about Beijing’s stance on Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet.

China’s central government regards these issues as part of its internal affairs.

“With regard to China-US relations, I believe that both sides must first uphold the principle of non-interference in each other’s internal affairs,” said Wang. This emerges from an official English translation of his Mandarin-language statements at a press conference that took place alongside the annual “Two Sessions” parliamentary session in Beijing, the country’s largest political event of the year.

Biden-Xi call

In a two-hour phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping in February before the New Year holidays, Biden had expressed “fundamental concerns” about Beijing’s actions on issues such as Hong Kong, according to the White House. At the same time, the two heads of state and government also discussed how to fight the coronavirus pandemic by working together on climate change and preventing the spread of weapons.

Wang said Sunday the two countries could also work together on the economic recovery from the pandemic, citing the call as a positive foundation for rebuilding bilateral ties.

“We stand ready to work with the United States to pursue the outcome of this important phone call and to put China-US relations on a new path of healthy and steady growth,” he said.

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Health

China topics some vacationers to anal swabs, angering international governments.

China is requiring some travelers arriving from overseas to receive an invasive anal swab test as part of its coronavirus containment measures, which has outraged and shocked several foreign governments.

Japanese officials said Monday they had formally asked China to exclude Japanese citizens from the test, adding that some who received it complained of “psychological distress”. And the US State Department most recently said it registered a protest with the Chinese government after some of its diplomats were forced to undergo anal swabs, despite Chinese officials denying it.

It is not clear how many such swabs have been administered or who is subject to them. Chinese state media have acknowledged that some arrivals in cities like Beijing and Shanghai are required for the tests, although reports said requirements may vary depending on whether travelers were rated as high-risk.

Chinese experts have suggested that traces of the virus could survive longer in the anus than in the respiratory tract, and that samples of the former could prevent false negative results. China has put some of the toughest containment measures in the world, including blocking most foreign arrivals, and has largely suppressed the epidemic.

Lu Hongzhou, an infectious disease specialist at Fudan University in Shanghai, told the state-controlled tabloid Global Times that nasal or throat swabs could cause “nasty reactions” that could result in below-average samples. He admitted that stool samples could replace anal swabs to avoid similar discomfort.

Other experts – including in China – have questioned the need for anal testing. The Global Times quoted another expert, Yang Zhanqiu, as saying that nasal and throat swabs are still most effective because the virus is transmitted through the airways.

Benjamin Cowling, professor of public health at the University of Hong Kong, said in an interview that even if someone tested positive on an anal swab but not a breath swab, he or she probably wouldn’t be very contagious.

“The value of detecting people with the virus is in stopping transmission,” said Professor Cowling. “If someone has an infection but is not contagious to anyone, we didn’t have to recognize that person.”

A spokesman for China’s foreign ministry said this week the government will make “science-based adjustments” to its containment policies.

Professor Cowling said he did not know what the scientific rationale for the existing policy was. “I suppose there is some evidence leading to this decision, but I haven’t seen that evidence,” he said.

Categories
Politics

Blinken Proposes a Overseas Coverage Not ‘Disconnected From Our Each day Lives’

WASHINGTON – Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken used his first major address on Wednesday to rally a constituency for President Biden’s foreign policy at a time when Americans are focused on the coronavirus pandemic, the economy and other domestic issues .

The 28-minute speech, delivered in a largely empty State Department reception room, was intended to demonstrate that the most pressing issues of diplomacy were matters that directly affect Americans.

From defending democracy to fighting climate change to managing the nation’s relations with China – “the greatest geopolitical test of the 21st century,” he said – Blinken outlined eight foreign policy priorities for the Biden government. He said they have to be faced both domestically and abroad, “or we’ll be left behind.”

Mr Blinken’s remarks were a companion to the White House’s release of what is known as the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, a 24-page document intended to serve as the first foreign policy blueprint until administrative officials come up with their first official national security strategy, a Congressional strategy, which is required Report to be released by each White House later this year.

Briefing reporters of the document, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the guidelines are based on the idea that the United States must be able to compete for “great powers” at the same time as rival powers such as China and Russia are being defended against cross-border threats such as pandemics, climate change and terrorism.

The key to this, Sullivan said, was rebuilding the American economy, democracy and alliances to operate “from a position of strength” worldwide.

Neither Mr Blinken nor Mr Sullivan made any new political announcements. And while the guidance document was intended for government officials, Mr Blinken attempted to connect with average Americans in a speech he would have given to an audience well beyond the Beltway without pandemic restrictions.

“I know that foreign policy sometimes feels disconnected from our daily lives,” said Blinken. “It’s either just about major threats like pandemics, terrorism, or it disappears from view.”

“Those of us who engage in foreign policy have not always done a good job of relating it to the needs and aspirations of the American people,” Blinken said. As a result, he said, “Americans have asked tough but fair questions about what we do, how we lead – in fact, whether we should lead at all.”

(His immediate predecessor, Mike Pompeo, frequently lectured in the U.S. to students, factory workers, and religious groups – though critics noted that he also selected venues and audiences that may be related to his suspected future political aspirations.)

Although Mr Blinken said several countries – including Russia, Iran and North Korea – presented serious challenges, he made it clear that China was America’s main competitor.

Repeating Mr. Biden’s campaign promise to alternate between competitive, collaborative and potentially confrontational positions on China on various issues, he said strong alliances are the best way to balance Beijing. “Where we withdrew, China filled in,” said Blinken.

But he offered few details, a vagueness that warned some former State Department officials that adapting to Beijing’s global influence would require expensive diplomatic and development efforts.

“We cannot confront China cheaply,” said Brett Bruen, former professional diplomat and White House official in the Obama administration.

Mr Pompeo had routinely singled out China during the Trump administration, calling it a rampant human rights abuser whose communist leaders had invaded foreign territories and were unable to stop the spread of the coronavirus.

Mr. Blinken repeatedly drew contrasts with the previous administration and President Donald J. Trump’s bombastic “America First” approach. “Real strength isn’t noise or bullying,” he said.

On immigration, Mr. Blinken said the government would continue to secure US borders but also pursue a “just decent solution” to the plight of the thousands of desperate Central Americans trying to enter the United States.

He also noted the deep rifts that have occurred in American politics and helped spark the January 6th uprising at the Capitol. “There is no question that our democracy is fragile,” he said.

However, Mr Blinken also acknowledged that previous administrations – including the Obama presidency in which he served – had failed ordinary Americans at times.

On Free Trade, “We haven’t done enough to understand who would be negatively affected and what it would take to adequately offset their pain or enforce agreements already on the books and help more workers and small businesses to fully benefit of them, ”he said.

Some liberal critics see Mr Blinken as too supportive of previous military interventions, admitting that “we need to remember what we have learned about the limits of violence in order to build lasting peace” – particularly in Afghanistan and the near by East.

“The day after a major military intervention is always more difficult than we imagined,” he said.