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Why Coronavirus Vaccine Distribution is Taking Longer Than Anticipated

In Florida, less than one-quarter of delivered coronavirus vaccines have been used, even as older people sat in lawn chairs all night waiting for their shots. In Puerto Rico, last week’s vaccine shipments did not arrive until the workers who would have administered them had left for the Christmas holiday. In California, doctors are worried about whether there will be enough hospital staff members to both administer vaccines and tend to the swelling number of Covid-19 patients.

These sorts of logistical problems in clinics across the country have put the campaign to vaccinate the United States against Covid-19 far behind schedule in its third week, raising fears about how quickly the country will be able to tame the epidemic.

Federal officials said as recently as this month that their goal was to have 20 million people get their first shot by the end of this year. More than 14 million doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines had been sent out across the United States, federal officials said on Wednesday. But, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, just 2.8 million people have received their first dose, though that number may be somewhat low because of lags in reporting.

States vary widely in how many of the doses they’ve received have been given out. South Dakota leads the country with more than 48 percent of its doses given, followed by West Virginia, at 38 percent. By contrast, Kansas has given out less than 11 percent of its doses, and Georgia, less than 14 percent.

Compounding the challenges, federal officials say they do not fully understand the cause of the delays. But state health officials and hospital leaders throughout the country pointed to several factors. States have held back doses to be given out to their nursing homes and other long-term-care facilities, an effort that is just gearing up and expected to take several months. Across the country, just 8 percent of the doses distributed for use in these facilities have been administered, with two million yet to be given.

The holiday season has meant that people are off work and clinics have reduced hours, slowing the pace of vaccine administration. In Florida, for example, the demand for the vaccines dipped over the Christmas holiday and is expected to dip again over New Year’s, Gov. Ron DeSantis said on Wednesday.

And critically, public health experts say, federal officials have left many of the details of the final stage of the vaccine distribution process, such as scheduling and staffing, to overstretched local health officials and hospitals.

In one notable blunder, forty-two people in Boone County, W.Va., who were scheduled to receive the coronavirus vaccine on Wednesday instead were mistakenly injected with an experimental monoclonal antibody treatment.

The West Virginia National Guard, which is leading the state’s vaccine distribution effort, called the error “a breakdown in the process.” None of the recipients has developed any adverse effects so far.

“We’ve taken the people with the least amount of resources and capacity and asked them to do the hardest part of the vaccination — which is actually getting the vaccines administered into people’s arms,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, the dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health.

Federal and state officials have denied they are to blame for the slow rollout. Officials behind Operation Warp Speed, the federal effort to fast-track vaccines, have said that their job was to ensure that vaccines are made available and get shipped out to the states. President Trump said in a tweet on Tuesday that it was “up to the States to distribute the vaccines once brought to the designated areas by the Federal Government.”

“Ultimately, the buck seems to stop with no one,” Dr. Jha said.

These problems are especially worrisome now that a new, more contagious variant, first spotted in Britain and overwhelming hospitals there, has arrived in the U.S. Officials in two states, Colorado and California, say they have discovered cases of the new variant, and none of the patients had recently traveled, suggesting the variant is already spreading in American communities.

The $900 billion relief package that Mr. Trump signed into law on Sunday will bring some relief to struggling state and local health departments. The bill sets aside more than $8 billion for vaccine distribution, on top of the $340 million that the C.D.C. sent out to the states in installments in September and earlier this month.

That infusion of money is welcome, if late, said Dr. Bob Wachter, a professor and chair of the department of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco. “Why did that take until now when we knew we were going to have this problem two months ago?”

Michael Pratt, a spokesman for Operation Warp Speed, said that there will always be lags between the number of doses that have been allocated, shipped, injected and reported. “We’re working to make those lags as small as possible,” Mr. Pratt said.

Covid-19 Vaccines ›

Answers to Your Vaccine Questions

With distribution of a coronavirus vaccine beginning in the U.S., here are answers to some questions you may be wondering about:

    • If I live in the U.S., when can I get the vaccine? While the exact order of vaccine recipients may vary by state, most will likely put medical workers and residents of long-term care facilities first. If you want to understand how this decision is getting made, this article will help.
    • When can I return to normal life after being vaccinated? Life will return to normal only when society as a whole gains enough protection against the coronavirus. Once countries authorize a vaccine, they’ll only be able to vaccinate a few percent of their citizens at most in the first couple months. The unvaccinated majority will still remain vulnerable to getting infected. A growing number of coronavirus vaccines are showing robust protection against becoming sick. But it’s also possible for people to spread the virus without even knowing they’re infected because they experience only mild symptoms or none at all. Scientists don’t yet know if the vaccines also block the transmission of the coronavirus. So for the time being, even vaccinated people will need to wear masks, avoid indoor crowds, and so on. Once enough people get vaccinated, it will become very difficult for the coronavirus to find vulnerable people to infect. Depending on how quickly we as a society achieve that goal, life might start approaching something like normal by the fall 2021.
    • If I’ve been vaccinated, do I still need to wear a mask? Yes, but not forever. Here’s why. The coronavirus vaccines are injected deep into the muscles and stimulate the immune system to produce antibodies. This appears to be enough protection to keep the vaccinated person from getting ill. But what’s not clear is whether it’s possible for the virus to bloom in the nose — and be sneezed or breathed out to infect others — even as antibodies elsewhere in the body have mobilized to prevent the vaccinated person from getting sick. The vaccine clinical trials were designed to determine whether vaccinated people are protected from illness — not to find out whether they could still spread the coronavirus. Based on studies of flu vaccine and even patients infected with Covid-19, researchers have reason to be hopeful that vaccinated people won’t spread the virus, but more research is needed. In the meantime, everyone — even vaccinated people — will need to think of themselves as possible silent spreaders and keep wearing a mask. Read more here.
    • Will it hurt? What are the side effects? The Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine is delivered as a shot in the arm, like other typical vaccines. The injection into your arm won’t feel different than any other vaccine, but the rate of short-lived side effects does appear higher than a flu shot. Tens of thousands of people have already received the vaccines, and none of them have reported any serious health problems. The side effects, which can resemble the symptoms of Covid-19, last about a day and appear more likely after the second dose. Early reports from vaccine trials suggest some people might need to take a day off from work because they feel lousy after receiving the second dose. In the Pfizer study, about half developed fatigue. Other side effects occurred in at least 25 to 33 percent of patients, sometimes more, including headaches, chills and muscle pain. While these experiences aren’t pleasant, they are a good sign that your own immune system is mounting a potent response to the vaccine that will provide long-lasting immunity.
    • Will mRNA vaccines change my genes? No. The vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer use a genetic molecule to prime the immune system. That molecule, known as mRNA, is eventually destroyed by the body. The mRNA is packaged in an oily bubble that can fuse to a cell, allowing the molecule to slip in. The cell uses the mRNA to make proteins from the coronavirus, which can stimulate the immune system. At any moment, each of our cells may contain hundreds of thousands of mRNA molecules, which they produce in order to make proteins of their own. Once those proteins are made, our cells then shred the mRNA with special enzymes. The mRNA molecules our cells make can only survive a matter of minutes. The mRNA in vaccines is engineered to withstand the cell’s enzymes a bit longer, so that the cells can make extra virus proteins and prompt a stronger immune response. But the mRNA can only last for a few days at most before they are destroyed.

The task of administering thousands of vaccines is daunting for health departments that have already been overburdened by responding to the pandemic. In Montgomery County, Maryland, the local health department has recruited extra staff to help manage vaccine distribution, said Travis Gayles, the county health officer.

“While we’re trying to roll out vaccinations, we’re also continuing the pandemic response by supporting testing, contact tracing, disease control and all of those other aspects of the Covid response,” Dr. Gayles said.

Complicating matters, the county health department gets just a few days of notice each week of the timing of its vaccine shipments. When the latest batch arrived, Dr. Gayles’s team scrambled to contact people eligible for the vaccine and to set up clinics to give out the doses as fast as possible.

Over all, Maryland has given nearly 17 percent of its vaccine doses. In a Wednesday appearance on CBS, Gov. Larry Hogan attributed the slow process to challenges across the board — from the federal government not sending as many doses as initially predicted, to the lack of logistical and financial support for local health departments.

In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott and top state health officials say vaccines are available in the state but are not being distributed quickly enough to deal with a critical surge of Covid-19 cases that is pushing hospital capacity to the breaking point.

“A significant portion of vaccines distributed across Texas might be sitting on hospital shelves as opposed to being given to vulnerable Texans,” the governor tweeted Tuesday.

In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom on Wednesday encouraged people to be “humble” in the face of such a complicated task and said that the pace of vaccination would accelerate. California has administered 20 percent of the doses it’s received.

Hesitancy among people offered the vaccine may also be slowing the rollout. Gov. Mike DeWine of Ohio said in a news conference on Wednesday that roughly 60 percent of nursing home staff members offered the vaccine in the state had declined it. In Florida, some hospital workers offered the vaccine declined it, and those doses are now designated for other vulnerable groups like health care workers in the community and the elderly, but that rollout has not quite begun, said Justin Senior, chief executive officer for the Safety Net Hospital Alliance of Florida, a hospital consortium.

There are bright spots. Some states and hospitals are finding ways to speedily administer the vaccines they have received. West Virginia said on Wednesday that it had finished giving the first round of vaccine doses to willing residents and workers at all of the state’s 214 long-term-care facilities — putting the state far ahead of most other states that began vaccinating at these facilities under a federal program with CVS and Walgreens.

In Los Angeles, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, which employs some 20,000 people at several facilities, was vaccinating about 800 people a day, said Dr. Jeff Smith, Cedars-Sinai’s chief operating officer. He said Cedars-Sinai expected to vaccinate all of its staff members who have opted for the vaccine within a couple of weeks.

But other communities are falling short of that rapid clip. Dr. Smith said the medical community is worried about staffing shortages when hospitals have to both administer vaccines and treat Covid-19 patients.

In a news conference on Wednesday, Operation Warp Speed officials said they expected the pace of the rollout to accelerate significantly once pharmacies begin offering vaccines in their stores. The federal government has reached agreements with a number of pharmacy chains — including Costco, Walmart, and CVS — to administer vaccines once they become more widely available. So far, 40,000 pharmacy locations have enrolled in that program.

Most vaccines administered across the country to date have been given to health care workers at hospitals and clinics, and to older adults at nursing homes. Gen. Gustave F. Perna, the logistics lead of Operation Warp Speed, on Wednesday described them as “two very difficult, challenging groups” to immunize.

But public health officials warned that reaching these initial groups, who are largely being vaccinated where they live or work, is a relatively easy task. “This is the part where we’re supposed to know where people are,” said Dr. Saad B. Omer, the director of the Yale Institute for Global Health.

It may be more difficult, public health officials say, to vaccinate the next wave of people, which will most likely include many more older Americans as well as younger people with health problems and frontline workers. Among the fresh challenges: How will these people be scheduled for their vaccination appointments? How will they provide documentation that they have a medical condition or a job that makes them eligible to get vaccinated? And how will pharmacies ensure that people show up, and that they can do so safely?

“In the next phase,” said Dr. Jha of Brown University, “we’re going to hit the same wall, where all of a sudden we’re going to have to scramble to start figuring it out.”

Lucy Tompkins and David Montgomery contributed reporting.

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Business

FAFSA’s Anticipated Household Contribution Is Going Away. Good Riddance.

“The idea is that the university knows you well enough to expect something from you,” said Sara Goldrick-Rab, professor of sociology and medicine at Temple University and author of Paying the Price: College Costs, Aid, and Treason at the American Dream University. “You get these words very early in the relationship and they don’t really know you at all. It doesn’t build trust. “

Then comes the kicker: this expectation can only be the beginning. “College often expects students to pay more than the EFC,” said Robert Kelchen, associate professor of higher education at Seton Hall University and author of Higher Education Accountability.

For students applying to college straight out of high school, “family” in the EFC usually means parents, as it is almost impossible for students to work their way through college in a reasonable time.

However, the EFC does not consider families where parents believe a child should try to pull this off. Or when parents look wrongly at higher education because they see no value in it and then decide not to help. Or when students feel obliged to help parents, even (or especially) when parents cannot help them.

Alienation also complicates matters. “With LGBTQ students, people really start to understand the problem right away,” said Dr. Goldrick-Rab. “If a 19 year old comes out and is cut off, what is family?”

The EFC also does not take into account extended families and obligations to aging parents, aunts, brothers, or selected families.

“It rejects any responsibility that might lie elsewhere,” said Dr. Zaloom.

By putting the EFC’s final word in the language of charity, the federal financial assistance system seeks to soften the blow. Sure, powerful powers demand from parents whether they like it or not, but at least it’s some kind of gift. Law?

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Business

Why Some States Are Seeing Greater Income Than Anticipated Amid Job Losses

While Congress has debated aid to state and local governments for the past few weeks, some states have announced surprising news: Their finances are no longer looking quite as bad as they feared in the uncertain early days of the pandemic.

The states are still largely suffering from the economic crisis. But California now expects a one-time slump this fiscal year. Wisconsin said it might still be able to throw away some revenue in its rainy day fund. Maryland increased its forecast earnings for the second time this fall. And Minnesota is now forecasting a surplus.

This good news partly reflects poor economic expectations from six months ago; Even modest numbers look good now, compared to the worst fears written on national budgets this spring. And state officials say they will continue to need federal help as they expect the effects of the pandemic to drag on for years and hit local governments. After all, federal aid is part of what has spurred it on so far.

The states with rosier outlooks are also complicating Washington’s state aid political battle, which is likely to be pushed into the New Year after lawmakers dropped aid from a year-end stimulus agreement that is nearing completion. Republicans have called state aid a bailout for lavish blue states. But many states that look better now are among the most advanced tax structures in the country, and that’s part of what saved them this year.

This recession, unlike many before, has amassed its worst effects on low-wage workers. This means that national budgets, which depend most on wealthier residents to fund government, have not been so badly damaged by an economic crisis that left the wealthy largely unscathed.

“We have a recession for low-wage workers and we just have a strange situation for everyone else,” said Peter Franchot, the controller for Maryland, who last week saw an estimated revenue increase of $ 64 million for that fiscal year compared to September announced estimates (which are up $ 1.4 billion from May).

Forecasters and state officials said they didn’t see this in May and June when they drafted budgets envisioning a severe downturn that might more closely resemble the great recession – with widespread layoffs among manufacturing workers, with one collapsing Stock market and economic development The pain spread into employee offices and civic subdivisions.

In typical recessions in which unemployment rises sharply, government revenues also fall sharply. But the relationship between the two was much weaker this year. In fact, the inequality associated with the Covid recession has protected many states from worse fiscal ramifications.

But that doesn’t mean that everything is okay.

“Despite the progressive tax structure, despite the wealth we have in Maryland, despite the fact that we are back in a safe haven of tax revenue, the suffering is just totally unacceptable,” said Franchot, who has called Maryland to be next to that Congress to set its own incentive.

In California, where there is a progressive income tax, the state revenue generated through October this year was only marginally lower than the same period in 2019. Texas, which has no state income tax and is considered one of the least equitable tax systems in the country, has been in a more precarious position.

While Texas doesn’t rely on taxes from its volatile energy sector to fund its base budget, decreased oil and gas production and lower prices have also contributed to the decline in overall tax revenues.

Florida and Nevada, which are heavily dependent on tourism (which was hurt by the pandemic), also have no income tax. And Florida is one of the few states that never attempted to levy sales tax on online transactions following a 2018 Supreme Court ruling that expanded that power to states. (In Texas, the ability to tax e-commerce was a huge challenge at the moment, as it added about $ 1.3 billion last year.)

Since the pandemic began in March through October, tax revenues in 38 states have declined 5 percent or less year-on-year, according to the Urban Institute. When states made far more serious projections in the spring, they failed to fall back on previous experience and tried to be conservative in their estimates, said Lucy Dadayan, a senior research fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

“To be fair, they didn’t have any information,” Ms. Dadayan said. “Yes, the revenues are higher than the original projections made in the spring immediately after the pandemic. But that doesn’t mean that earnings are doing well. “

In all of these states, federal incentives have played an important role. It’s not that the crisis was excessive; The fact is that federal aid really worked.

Stimulus checks and additional unemployment benefits increased the consumption of laid-off workers, which in turn supported sales tax revenues. Most states also levy income tax on unemployment benefits. And all that federal support eased the burden on states of providing a safety net for families in trouble, even as federal dollars helped cover many of the state’s Covid expenses.

States that rely on higher income taxpayers have been helped by other unexpected disparities in this recession. Consumption has shifted from services that are difficult to consume in person during a pandemic to goods that are much more taxed (for example, you pay taxes when you buy a lawnmower but usually don’t pay taxes when you pay someone who mows your lawn).

In California, forecasters in March never expected the stock market to rise as much as it has before. This has increased capital gains, which are taxed in the state as regular income. And a number of lucrative IPOs – another unexpected trend in the midst of the recession – have also contributed to government revenues.

From August through October, California’s personal income, sales, and corporate tax revenue increased 9 percent over the same window last year, according to the California Legislative Analyst’s Office. That shows how well the wealthy fared this year. The resulting budget damage is also due to the fact that the state planned a budget for bad times in June.

“This is really a temporary situation,” said Gabriel Petek, “ the state legislative analyst who prepared the latest budget outlook. The budget effects of this downturn have been pushed into the coming years when the state expects deficits that could further burden the services.

“It turns out a bit that the state is doing fine financially, and it’s true that our sales picture is better than we thought,” said Petek. “But the only reason we’re in a better budget position is because of this one-off difference between what we collect this year and what we have accepted in the budget that we would collect.”

Like other states, California still doesn’t know how bad the winter flood of the pandemic will be. In the near future, states will no longer be able to fall back on one-off pots such as rainy day money. When the public health emergency ends, the federal government will cut additional payments to states to cover Medicaid. And local governments will continue to have problems as they rely on even less stable sources of income such as parking fees, public transport charges and hotel taxes.

States are still facing both sides of the inequality of the pandemic – the wealthy residents who have been stuck, bought stocks and new cars, but also the low-wage workers who are struggling.

“Even states with lots of rich people often have lots of low-income people,” said Tracy Gordon, senior fellow of the Tax Policy Center. State and local governments will ultimately be responsible for the safety net, she added, “and they are not built to absorb that risk.”