Following a pandemic-induced surge in layoffs due to new restrictions in many states, unemployment claims are falling, aided by a decline in new coronavirus cases.
Initial unemployment benefits fell last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday, and were well below levels in December and early January.
The number of new coronavirus cases is down a third from two weeks ago, prompting states like California and New York to relax restrictions on indoor eating and other activities. This has given workers in the hardest hit industries some respite.
813,000 new state benefit claims were made last week, compared to 850,000 the previous week. Adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, the value for the last week was 793,000, which corresponds to a decrease of 19,000.
There were 335,000 new entitlements to Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a government-funded program for part-time workers, the self-employed, and others who are normally not eligible for unemployment benefits. That sum, which was not seasonally adjusted, fell from 369,000 the week before.
While claims remain extraordinarily high by historical standards, the improvement has raised hopes that layoffs will continue to slow as vaccinations spread and employers switch from laying off workers to adding workers.
“We’re stuck with this very high level of damage, but activity is picking up,” said Julia Pollak, employment economist at ZipRecruiter, an online job market. In fact, ZipRecruiter’s job postings are at 11.3 million, near the pre-pandemic 11.4 million level.
The improving pandemic situation has eased the burden on restaurants and bars, Ms. Pollak added. With nearly 10 million jobs deficit since the pandemic started and employers still cautious about hiring, the economy is facing major challenges.
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome H. Powell told the New York Business Club on Wednesday that policymakers should continue to focus on restoring employment, “Given the number of people who have lost their jobs and the likelihood that some struggle to find work in the post-pandemic economy. “
He found that employment for workers earning high wages had fallen by only 4 percent, but for the bottom quartile of those in work it was a “staggering 17 percent”.
Updated
Apr. 11, 2021 at 11:13 am ET
Many other signs of weakness remain. The Ministry of Labor reported that employers only created 49,000 jobs in January, underscoring the challenges facing the unemployed.
President Biden cited the poor performance to call for approval of a $ 1.9 trillion pandemic relief package. It would send $ 1,400 to many Americans, aid states and cities, and extend unemployment benefits, which is slated to run out to millions in mid-March.
The House Ways and Means Committee took an initial step on Wednesday when it began developing a measure that would continue emergency benefits through the end of August, increasing the weekly benefit premium from $ 300 to $ 400.
With the prospect of additional relief and a decrease in virus cases, some experts say a strong recovery is possible this year. Oxford Economics is forecasting economic growth of 5.9 percent in 2021, compared to a decline of 3.5 percent in the previous year.
According to economists at ZipRecruiter and another major online job board, Employers, employers are already putting out the welcome mat in certain areas.
Ms. Pollak said employer posts at ZipRecruiter in the past few days have offered hope. “We have seen employers exceed all of our expectations and show a lot of exuberance,” she said. “There are clear differences between different industries.”
In addition to strength in industries that benefit from the stay-at-home trend, such as B. Warehousing and deliveries, the recruitment of engineering, professional and business services has recently shown signs of life.
“Companies are looking to the future and are somewhat optimistic,” said Ms. Pollak.
AnnElizabeth Konkel, an economist at Indeed Hiring Lab, added that demand for pharmacists was up 23 percent year-over-year while openings for drivers were up 18 percent. “Everything is directly related to the pandemic,” said Ms. Konkel.
Nevertheless, there were regional differences. In cities like Washington, Seattle, Boston, and San Francisco, where many people work remotely, there were fewer vacancies in some areas than in places with more people back in the office.
“People don’t come to their local café on their way to work or stop at a store to pick up something when they work at home,” said Ms. Konkel, and that affects attitudes.
Restaurant openings have declined for a year, as have positions in arts and entertainment, hospitality and tourism.
At ZipRecruiter, the energy industry posted more jobs after heavy losses at the beginning of the pandemic. Manufacturing has also seen more openings lately.
“Some of the losers are finally coming back a bit,” said Ms. Pollak. “But so many industries are impossible to resume while the pandemic continues.”
