Starting Friday, a mix of conservative politicians, commentators, and activists will be arriving in Orlando, Florida for the annual Conservative Political Action Conference, commonly known as the CPAC. Over the past few years, the event has been a reliable barometer for the Republican Party grassroots, clarifying how its most devout members define the institution now and what it should look like in the future.
For the party leadership, these questions have become particularly urgent after the loss of former President Donald J. Trump’s election in November, not to mention the riots in the Capitol that Trump supporters waged last month. The party has hardened over the past four years into a party enlivened by anger, complaint and, most importantly, loyalty to Mr. Trump. The coming days will tell whether this is likely to stay that way.
What influence does Trump have on the event?
The former president is expected to deliver the conference closing address on Sunday at 3:40 p.m. Eastern. However, his presence will be felt throughout the event. Recent polls show that a majority of Republicans mistakenly believe the election was stolen from Mr. Trump, and this year’s agenda shows that issues like election fraud will be at the fore.
On Friday morning, panelists including Alabama’s Mo Brooks, who enthusiastically supported Mr. Trump’s fraud allegations, will gather on stage for a 35-minute section entitled “Election Protection: Why Judges and Media Refuse to Examine the Evidence”. That topic will be taken up again on Sunday morning when speakers discuss what they call the “failed states” of Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada – states won by Joseph R. Biden Jr. in November and where Trump’s legal efforts end USA to topple results sputtered.
The 45th President won’t be the only Trump to show up. On Friday afternoon, Donald Trump Jr. will speak under the vague banner of “Reigniting the Spirit of the American Dream”. He is introduced by Kimberly Guilfoyle, his girlfriend and a former Fox News personality.
In other words, when it comes to older Mr. Trump, expect this year’s CPAC to feel similar to the last four – from the number of times his name is called to the eagerness of the audience, of the man hear for yourself.
Which topics are on the agenda?
As Conservatives look for a message to rally before the 2022 midterm elections, the CPAC agenda is a preview of the tough battle that awaits. The agenda includes panels on debt, abortion, education, big tech, and breaking culture. With so many segments anchored in the 2020 elections, the conference seems to be less about mapping the party’s future than about reinvigorating its past.
Except for a certain day. There is no mention of January 6 anywhere on the agenda – not the pro-Trump march in Washington, the chants of “Stop the Steal,” or the demonstration that turned into a riotous mob that stormed the Capitol. Prominent Republican politicians have tried to limit the uprising to Antifa and other leftist movements or groups, and CPAC will show how conservative voters view the events of that day almost two months later.
Who is looking at 2024?
A lecture space at CPAC is prime property for ambitious Republicans. This year, some of those looking to claim the cloak of a post-Trump GOP managed to get one. With the event taking place in his state, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has perhaps the most coveted spot on the agenda alongside Mr. Trump himself – he will deliver the conference’s opening address on Friday at 9 a.m.
Other rumored candidates for 2024 are Senator Ted Cruz from Texas, who will speak on Friday at 10:50 am on the “Bill of Rights, Liberty and Cancel Culture”. Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton, who will speak about “Keeping America Safe” at 12:55 pm that day; and Senator Rick Scott of Florida, who stands up at 2:55 pm for a discussion on “Unlocking Our Churches, Our Votes, and Our Social Media Accounts.”
Mr. Scott is immediately followed by Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri, whose speech is simply titled “Remarks.”
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem will anchor the lineup on Saturday. He will speak on the Bill of Rights at 1:35 pm and she will speak to the audience at 3:50 pm. No topic is listed for her speech.
Over them, of course, is Mr. Trump. If the popularity of the former president persists with the grassroots, the 2024 election could center on whether or not he opts for running. If so, few Republicans are likely to ask for the nomination. If he doesn’t, the contestants will put as much energy into getting his support as they will into their Iowa floor game.
And so, by 2024, hopefuls at CPAC will likely deliver their speeches in a familiar mode: in front of an audience of one.
Who won’t be there?
The Republican Party, which plans to retake the White House in 2024 and won’t speak at CPAC that year, is as telling as whoever.
The most notable absence on the line-up is former Vice President Mike Pence. He has held back since January 6 when some rioters demanded his execution and Mr. Trump refused to take action to stop the mob. Politico first reported that Mr Pence had declined an invitation to speak at CPAC.
Also off the agenda is Nikki Haley, a former governor of South Carolina who served as ambassador to the United Nations under Trump. Ms. Haley is another rumored contender for 2024, and her absence from the Conservative conference could signal an attempt to take a more moderate stance in the party in the years to come.
