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Egypt Denied an Oxygen Failure Killed Covid Sufferers. We Discovered That It Did.

EL HUSSEINEYA, Egypt – A scream pierced the night from the balcony of an Egyptian hospital. A nurse yelled that patients in the intensive care unit in Covid were gasping for air.

Ahmed Nafei, who was standing outside, passed a security guard, stormed in and saw that his 62-year-old aunt was dead.

Angry, he took out his cell phone and started filming. It appeared that the hospital had run out of oxygen. Monitors beeped. One nurse was clearly desperate and crouched in a corner when her colleagues tried to resuscitate a man with a manual ventilator.

At least four patients died.

Mr Nafei’s 47-second video this month about the chaos at El Husseineya Central Hospital, about two and a half hours northeast of Cairo, went viral on social media.

As the outrage grew, the government denied the hospital had run out of oxygen.

An official statement released the following day concluded that the four deceased had suffered “complications” and denied that the deaths were “in any way related” to anoxia. Security officers interrogated Mr. Nafei and officials accused him of breaking rules that prohibit visiting and filming in hospitals.

However, an investigation by the New York Times found otherwise.

Witnesses, including medical staff and patient relatives, said in interviews that oxygen pressure had fallen to steeply low levels. At least three patients, and possibly a fourth, died of a lack of oxygen. A detailed analysis of the video by doctors in Egypt and the United States confirmed that the chaotic scene in the intensive care unit indicated an interruption in oxygen supply.

The fatal lack of oxygen was the end result of a cascade of problems in the hospital, our research found. By the time the patients suffocated in the intensive care unit, an ordered oxygen release was hours too late and a backup oxygen system had failed.

“We will not bury our heads in the sand and pretend everything is fine,” said a doctor at the hospital on condition of anonymity because he feared arrest. “The whole world can admit there is a problem, but not us.”

The government’s rush to deny the episode is just the latest example of the lack of transparency in its response to the Covid crisis, which has sparked cynicism and distrust of its public assurances.

For many Egyptians, Mr Nafei’s video offered a rare and uncensored look at the real toll of the coronavirus at the height of Egypt’s second wave of pandemics.

The government admitted that four people died in intensive care that day, January 2, but denied that it was due to a lack of oxygen.

The Ministry of Health’s statement stated that the deceased patients were mostly elderly, that they died at different times, and that at least a dozen other patients, including newborns in incubators, were connected to the same oxygen network and unaffected. These factors confirmed “the lack of a link between the deaths and the alleged lack of oxygen”.

Medical staff confirmed that the hospital’s oxygen supply was not completely depleted, but said the pressure was dangerously low. In the intensive care unit, it is even worse and not enough to keep the patients alive. The pressure may have been lower because the intensive care unit’s oxygen vents were at the end of the network or because of other inefficiencies in the pipeline.

Updated

Jan. 18, 2021, 5:26 p.m. ET

Efforts by hospital staff to correct the shortage were thwarted by further mishaps. When they tried to switch the intensive care unit oxygen supply from the hospital’s main tank to the reserve reserve, the reserve system appeared to be overloaded and failed.

Earlier in the day, aware that they were running out of breath, hospital officials had requested more oxygen from the Ministry of Health. But the van that was due in the afternoon was more than three hours late.

“If it had arrived by 6 p.m., none of this would have happened,” said the hospital doctor.

The medical experts who analyzed the video, including six doctors in the United States and Egypt, discovered details that aid in the determination of oxygen failure.

In the video, none of the patients appear to be connected to the central oxygen line.

A doctor uses a portable tank, which is usually used in an emergency and only temporarily. And just a few feet away, a group of nurses are trying to resuscitate a patient with a manual pump that does not appear to be connected to an oxygen source.

“There is no oxygen tube attached to the airbag,” said Dr. Hicham Alnachawati, a New York emergency doctor who worked in intensive care units in hospitals. It doesn’t happen. It’s impossible if you don’t have oxygen. “

Another doctor who checked the video, Dr. Bushra Mina, the Egyptian-American head of pulmonology at Lenox Hill Hospital who has cared for hundreds of Covid-19 patients in New York, noted the “urgency” of the doctor and nurses in the video “Trying to Oxygenate the Patients.” supply or supplement. “

“It can be overwhelming, even in the US where you have a lot of resources,” said Dr. Mina. “Imagine Egypt where resources are limited and you exceed your capacities.”

The oxygen crisis at El Husseineya Central Hospital may not have been the only one.

Signs of shortages in other hospitals flooded social media for a week. A hospital director on social media urged people to donate portable oxygen tanks, citing a “critical need”. A patient in another hospital filmed himself in the isolation ward and said, “We don’t have enough oxygen.” And a video of a scene similar to the one Mr. Nafei saw was posted online.

These claims could not be independently verified.

“Is there a real problem?” asked Ayman Sabae, a researcher with the Egyptian Personal Rights Initiative, a human rights group. “Nobody but the government can claim to have this information.”

The government’s record during the crisis has not instilled confidence that it aligns with the Egyptians.

President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has denounced critics of the government’s coronavirus efforts as “enemies of the state”. His security services expelled a foreign journalist who questioned the official toll. Prosecutors have warned that anyone who spreads “false news” about the coronavirus can face a prison sentence of up to five years.

And the government has waged a bitter feud with doctors who earlier revolted in the pandemic over lack of protective equipment. Some of the doctors were thrown in jail.

“They’re trying to control the narrative, they’re trying to make sure things look like they’re under control, and part of that is controlling the information that is being shared with the public,” Sabae said. “I have no problem with that if the government gives us credible information that we can rely on.”

When the El Husseineya Central Hospital video came out instead, the answer was to tell the Egyptians not to believe what they were seeing.

“This is not a scene showing a lack of oxygen,” said Mamdouh Ghorab, the governor of Al Sharqiya, the governorate that also includes El Husseineya Central Hospital. He spoke on a pro-government television show that did not interview or invite witnesses to question the official narrative.

Even the official numbers are suspect. Egypt has reported over 150,000 Covid cases and over 8,000 deaths, remarkably low numbers for the region and for a country of over 100 million people.

However, outside experts and even some government officials say both numbers are a huge undercount, largely due to the lack of comprehensive testing and because the laboratories that run tests don’t always report their results to the government.

Although the lack of oxygen at El Husseineya Central was denied, officials began taking steps to address the problem and tacitly acknowledged it.

Health Minister Hala Zayed recognized a shortage of oxygen delivery trucks and delays in distribution. President Sisi called on the government to double oxygen production to meet the surge in demand.

The government appears to have taken another action in response to the video of the crisis in El Husseineya Central. Visitors must now leave their phones at the door.

Mona El-Naggar reported from El Husseineya and Yousur Al-Hlou from New York. Video by Arielle Ray and Ben Laffin.

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Health

Twins With Covid Assist Scientists Untangle the Illness’s Genetic Roots

What Ms. Burkett and Ms. Miller experienced was not the norm. Many of the conditions that can increase a person’s risk for severe Covid – obesity, heart disease, diabetes, smoking – are heavily influenced by the environment and behavior, not just genetics. A person’s history of fighting off other coronaviruses such as those that lead to colds can also affect their likelihood of developing a serious case of Covid.

Some researchers have also suggested that the amount of coronavirus a person ingests could have an impact on the severity of the condition, a trend that has been documented in other infections.

Updated

Jan. 18, 2021, 11:13 p.m. ET

“It makes the difference if your immune system is actually able to suppress the infection or if it is much more difficult to fight it when all of your cells are infected at the same time,” said Juliet Morrison, a virologist at the University of California in Riverside.

Michael Russell, 29, wonders if he tracked down more of the virus in the days after meeting his family on July 4 than his twin brother Steven did this summer.

Both brothers began to develop symptoms shortly after the celebration ended, around the time Steven returned to his home in Arlington, Virginia. The virus saddled Steven with a sore throat and a headache – a “mild, cold-like” illness, he said.

A few days later, Michael, who lived at home with his parents, had much more severe symptoms: a sore throat, chills, shortness of breath and fatigue, which banished him to his bed for a whole day. About two weeks passed before he could smell or taste the cinnamon-dusted popcorn that he regularly consumes.

The twins’ parents also had bad Covid symptoms, so Michael had to isolate himself with two other infected adults. Sitting together in the same house could have exposed him to a larger dose of the virus, the brothers said. But they added, that’s just a guess.

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Covid Vaccine Effort: The Push to Attain Cautious Medical Staff

“If that doesn’t get you in line, I don’t know what will,” Georgia’s Governor Brian Kemp said last month.

Houston Methodist, a Texas hospital system with 26,000 employees, gives employees who take the vaccine a bonus of $ 500. “Vaccination is not yet mandatory for our employees (but it will be at some point),” wrote Dr. Marc Boom, the hospital’s general manager, emailed staff last month.

In an interview last week, Dr. Boom, the bonuses are “one of the many strategies to get people going”. He added, “I think we will get there. But I am not naive enough to believe that there are no people who are deeply resilient. “

At Norton Healthcare, a healthcare system in Louisville, Kentucky, workers who refuse the vaccine and then catch Covid-19 will generally no longer be able to take the paid medical vacation Norton has been offering to infected employees since the beginning of the pandemic. Instead, unvaccinated workers will have to use their regular paid time off from next month if, with limited exceptions, they contract Covid-19.

Atlas Senior Living, which has 29 assisted living facilities and other communities in the Southeast, offers workers up to four days of extra paid time off when they are vaccinated. (Some hourly workers at Atlas had not yet paid any time off as part of their standard services.)

Atlas has tried to avoid “roging people who refused to take it,” and has focused on education and the rewards of paid free time, said Scott Goldberg, Atlas co-executive director.

Juniper and Atria officials said their decision to require employees to be vaccinated was not due to widespread reluctance from their employees. Both chains make exceptions for pregnant workers who are allergic to vaccine ingredients or have other compelling reasons to refuse the vaccine.

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Business

Small companies welcome extra assist in Biden’s Covid reduction plan

A normally busy main street in Livingston, Montana after Governor Steve Bullock ordered restaurants, bars and theaters to close on March 20, 2020 in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

William Campbell | Corbis via Getty Images

As President-elect Joe Biden presents his comprehensive $ 1.9 trillion economic plan and response to the pandemic, small business advocates welcome additional help for a main drag that continues to be hammered by Covid.

Biden’s US bailout plan includes $ 15 billion in grants for the hardest hit businesses and $ 35 billion in funding programs for small businesses.

“An economy that is fully open and recovering relatively quickly will save countless businesses and jobs on Main Street and give new entrepreneurs the spark to start and stop new businesses,” said Karen Kerrigan, President and CEO of SBE Council , in a statement. She added that the small business recovery is an integral part of the macroeconomic recovery.

“It is clear that certain industries and areas of the country are harder hit than others and initiatives that focus on those sectors and communities will result in a more balanced recovery,” said Kerrigan.

The assistance provided by Biden would be on top of the current Paycheck Protection program, which reopened this week with new fraud protection and an emphasis on serving smaller businesses that may have missed help when the program was launched last year. Community lenders started offering first-time loans on Monday and PPP loans for the second drawing on Wednesday. The staggered opening continues on Friday for lenders with assets under $ 1 billion. It opens Tuesday for all other lenders.

At Sunrise Banks in St. Paul, Minnesota, demand for help from smaller businesses has been high since the program opened on Monday. CEO David Reiling praised the Small Business Administration’s decision to let community lenders take the lead in this round. The incoming requests for assistance are low, but show that micro and sole proprietorships are in need.

“The vast majority will be sole proprietorships and these loans will cost maybe a few thousand dollars. In some cases, our lowest value today was $ 250,” said Reiling.

In addition to helping small businesses, Biden’s proposal includes $ 1,400 direct payments to individuals, a national vaccination strategy, and a minimum wage of $ 15 an hour.

Biden’s call to more than double the current federal minimum wage met with both criticism and praise. Pew Research found that 67% of Americans are in favor of increasing their wages to $ 15 an hour.

The International Franchise Association was delighted with the vaccination strategy and helping businesses, but said the wage increase could be counterproductive.

“Our goal is to ensure that small businesses can continue to care for their communities and their employees. However, asking for some workers to more than double wages will hurt businesses in trouble and likely slow recovery,” said Matt Haller , IFA senior vice president of government and public affairs, in a press release.

Small business confidence fell in December as Covid-19 cases spiked and Main Street awaited the changing of the guard in DC. The monthly index of the National Federation of Independent Business fell 5.5 points to 95.9. It’s below the NFIB’s historical average of 98 as fewer small businesses expect sales to rise or the economy to improve over the next six months. In addition, there is still uncertainty for small business owners in the New Year.

“Concerns about economic policies in the new government and the increasing spread of Covid-19, which is leading to new government-mandated business closings, leave owners pessimistic about future conditions in the first half of 2021,” said chief economist William Dunkelberg.

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Health

Israel is launching Covid immunity passports for vaccinated residents

A health care worker administers a Covid-19 vaccine at Clalit Health Services in the ultra-Orthodox Israeli city of Bnei Brak on January 6, 2021.

JACK GUEZ | AFP | Getty Images

Israel was praised for deploying what is currently the fastest Covid-19 vaccination campaign in the world.

Less than a month after receiving the first shipment of the Pfizer BioNTech jab, the 9 million country has vaccinated around 20% of its population, and more than 72% of those over 60 have already received their first dose of the shot. The Israeli Ministry of Health aims to have 5.2 million of its citizens vaccinated by March.

The vaccinations, say the authorities, will help the country gradually end its strict lockdown, and soon with the help of a new document: a Covid-19 vaccination certificate or the so-called “green brochure”.

Essentially an immunity pass announced by the Ministry of Health earlier this week. The “green leaflet” is given to people who have received two doses of the vaccine.

“The Ministry of Health will issue the vaccine certificate after receiving the second dose,” the Israel Ministry of Health said on its website. “It will take effect 7 days later, without the day the vaccine is given.”

The brochure would offer vaccinated individuals significant freedom from Covid-19 security restrictions. People who keep it would no longer have to do the following:

  • Go into isolation after coming into contact with an infected person.
  • After international trips, go to a Covid “red zone” or to countries with very high infection rates.
  • Must be tested before entering certain tourist areas known as “green islands”.

However, they would still need to wear a mask in public and maintain social distance, stay two meters away from others and avoid social gatherings.

Vaccinated people holding the booklet would be “entitled to loose restrictions in travel destinations around the world,” the ministry website said.

Evidence of vaccination data would be registered in the Department of Health’s database and recovered patients who have not been vaccinated are not eligible for the brochure, according to the website.

In this aerial photo, taken in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Monday January 4, 2020, people are queuing outside a Covid-19 mass vaccination center in Rabin Sqaure. Israel plans to vaccinate 70% to 80% of its population by April or May. Health Minister Yuli Edelstein has said.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Israel’s lockdown is due to be lifted January 21, but an increase in cases over the past few weeks means it may be extended. The country hit a record high of 9,997 cases on Wednesday, about twice as many as at the end of December. Israel had 523,885 confirmed cases of the virus and 3,846 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.

The vaccination campaign encountered further obstacles in the Arab and Orthodox Jewish communities in the country, where there is a higher degree of vaccination skepticism. Israel has also been targeted by human rights groups for failing to expand its vaccination campaign to Palestinian territories.

The Palestinian Authority has reached an agreement with AstraZeneca and expects to receive its first doses of this vaccine in March. However, she has sharply criticized Israel for shirking its responsibility for providing aid. Israeli officials have said that this should be left to the Palestinian Authority.

According to local Israeli news reports, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held talks with officials on Tuesday about how to gradually lift the lockdown and introduce the green brochure. No start date was given.

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Does Double-Masking Assist Sluggish the Unfold of Covid?

Football coaches do it. The elected presidents do it. Even academically savvy senators do. As coronavirus cases continue to rise around the world, some of the country’s most famous people have begun doubling down on masks – a move that researchers say is increasingly being backed by data.

Double masking is not necessary for everyone. But for people with thin or thin face coverings, “When you combine layers, you get pretty high levels of efficiency” by preventing viruses from leaking out of the airways and into the airways, said Linsey Marr, virus transmission expert at Virginia Tech and author of a recent commentary describes the science behind mask wearing.

Of course there is a compromise: at some point we run the risk of making it too difficult to breathe, she said. But there is plenty of room to breathe before mask wearing approaches this extreme.

A year after the Covid-19 pandemic, the world looks very different. More than 90 million confirmed coronavirus infections have been documented worldwide, leaving millions dead and countless others with lingering symptoms in ongoing economic hardship and closed schools and businesses. New variants of the virus have emerged that bring about genetic changes that appear to improve their ability to spread from person to person.

And while several vaccines have now cleared regulatory hurdles, injections adoption has been stuttering and slow – and there’s still no definitive evidence that gunshots will have a significant impact on how quickly and by whom the virus spreads.

Through all of these changes, researchers have kept the line with masks. “Americans don’t have to wear masks forever,” said Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease doctor at the University of California at San Francisco and author of the new comment. But for now they have to stay and offer protection to both those wearing the mask and the people around them.

The case for masking spans several areas of science, including epidemiology and physics. A host of observational studies have shown that the widespread use of masks can curb infection and death on an impressive scale, in settings as small as hair salons and at the country level. A study that tracked government policies that make face coverings mandatory in public found that known Covid cases with mask-wearing rules increased and decreased almost in lockstep. Another who followed coronavirus infections among health care workers in Boston saw a drastic decrease in the number of positive test results after masks became a universal part of the workforce. A study in Beijing found that face masks were 79 percent effective at blocking transmission from infected people to their close contacts.

Recent work by researchers like Dr. Marr now lay down the basis of these links on a microscopic scale. The science, she said, is pretty intuitive: respiratory viruses like the coronavirus, which move between people in spit and spray marks, need clear piping to get into the airways, which are overcrowded with the types of cells that the viruses infect. Masks that cover the nose and mouth prevent this invasion.

It’s not about making a mask airtight, said Dr. Marr. Instead, the fibers that make up masks create a random obstacle course that air – and any contagious cargo – must navigate.

“The air must follow this tortuous path,” said Dr. Marr. “The great things it bears will not be able to follow these turns.”

Experiments testing the ability of masks to block incoming and outgoing spray showed that even relatively simple materials, such as fabric covers and surgical masks, can be at least 50 percent effective in either direction.

Several studies have reinforced the notion that masks seem to protect people around the mask wearer better than mask wearers themselves. “That’s because you stop it at the source,” said Dr. Marr. Based on the latest research, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has found that there are great benefits for those who wear masks too.

The best masks remain N95, which are designed with ultra-high filtration efficiency. However, they are still in short supply for health workers who need them to safely treat patients.

Layering two less specialized masks can provide comparable protection. Dr. Marr recommended wearing face masks over surgical masks, which are typically made from more filter-friendly materials but fit more loosely. An alternative is to wear a cloth mask with a pocket that can be filled with filter material, as is the case with vacuum bags.

However, wearing more than two masks or applying masks that can already filter very well quickly leads to falling yields and makes normal breathing considerably more difficult.

Other improvements can improve the fit of a mask, e.g. B. Ties that secure the fabric at the back of the head instead of relying on ear loops to allow masks to hang and gape. Nose bridges, which can help the top of a mask fit tighter, also provide a protection boost.

Achieving great fit and filtration “is really easy,” said Dr. Gandhi. “It doesn’t have to contain anything special.”

No mask is perfect, and wearing a mask does not prevent other public health measures such as physical distancing and good hygiene. “We have to be honest that the best answer is one that requires multiple interventions,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, a public health expert at Johns Hopkins University.

Wearing masks is uncommon in some parts of the country, partly due to the politicization of the practice. However, experts found that the model behavior of heads of state and government could help turn the tide. In December, President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. pleaded with Americans to wear masks during his first 100 days in office and said he would make it compulsory in federal buildings as well as on planes, trains, and buses crossing state lines .

A comprehensive review of the evidence for masking published this month in PNAS magazine concluded that masks are a key tool in reducing community transmission and are “most effective at reducing the spread of the virus with high compliance.”

Some of the messages may also require more empathy, open communication, and voice recognition that “people don’t wear masks,” said Dr. Nuzzo. Without more patience and compassion, simply doubling the limits to “fix” poor compliance will backfire: “No policy will work if no one adheres to it.”

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Pfizer to briefly scale back Covid vaccine deliveries to Europe

A picture taken on January 15, 2021 shows a pharmacist holding a vial of undiluted Pfizer BioNTech vaccine for Covid-19 with gloved hands, which is stored at -70 ° in a super freezer at Le Mans hospital in northwestern France became country runs a vaccination campaign to fight the spread of the novel coronavirus.

Jean-Francois Monier | AFP | Getty Images

LONDON – Pfizer will temporarily reduce the number of doses of its coronavirus vaccine shipped to Europe.

The Norwegian Public Health Institute received a message from Pfizer “shortly before 10 a.m.” on Friday, according to a statement by the agency published shortly thereafter. The NIPH statement said supplies of the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine would be reduced from next week “and for an upcoming period”.

“In week 3, Pfizer predicted 43,875 doses of vaccine. Now we appear to be receiving 36,075 doses,” the statement said.

NIPH said the temporary reduction in shipments was “related to an upgrade in production capacity”. “The temporary reduction will affect all European countries,” he added.

Pfizer later confirmed the interruption in supplies in a statement. “As part of normal productivity improvements to increase capacity, we need to make changes to the process and facility that require additional regulatory approvals,” he said.

Pfizer added that while this would “temporarily affect shipments from late January to early February, it will significantly increase the doses available to patients in late February and March”.

Meanwhile, Pfizer said there could be fluctuations in orders and shipping schedules at its facility in Puurs, Belgium, “in the near future”.

Albert Bourla, CEO of Pfizer, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday that he was confident of “dramatically increasing” production of the vaccine this year, with the goal of producing up to 2 billion doses.

Bourla also said that Pfizer currently has more doses of its vaccine available than are being used.

The European Union announced last week that it was doubling its inventory of Pfizer BioNTech vaccines.

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said the deal would allow the EU to buy an additional 300 million cans on top of its existing inventory. The EU executive has already been criticized for not buying more of the vaccine.

Rollouts have been slow in many EU countries including France, Germany and the Netherlands, and this latest news is likely to weigh on vaccination programs in those countries. Canada has also confirmed that its deliveries will be delayed, but said it was hoped that this would not affect its vaccination program.

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WHO says Covid vaccines aren’t ‘silver bullets’ and relying totally on them has harm nations

On January 13, 2021, employees are storing coffins in the mourning hall of the crematorium in Meißen (East Germany), some of which are marked with “risk of infection” while others are scrawled in chalk, amid the new pandemic of the coronavirus COVID-19. Cremation.

Jens Schlueter | AFP | Getty Images

The World Health Organization said Friday that coronavirus vaccines are not “silver bullets” and that it has harmed nations to rely on them solely to fight the pandemic.

Some countries in Europe, Africa and America are seeing an increase in Covid-19 cases “because we are not generally able to break the chains of transmission at the community level or in households,” said WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus during a message Conference from the agency’s headquarters in Geneva.

With 2 million deaths around the world and the spread of new virus variants in multiple countries, world leaders must do whatever it takes to contain infection “through best public health measures,” Tedros said. “There is only one way out of this storm and that is to share the tools we have and to use them together.”

The coronavirus has infected more than 93.3 million people worldwide and killed at least 2 million people since the pandemic began about a year ago. This is based on data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The virus continues to accelerate in some regions, and countries are reporting that their oxygen supplies are “dangerously low” for Covid-19 patients, the WHO said.

Some countries, including the US, have focused heavily on the use of vaccines to control their outbreaks. While vaccines are a useful tool, they won’t end the pandemic on their own, Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s health emergencies program, told the news conference.

“We warned in 2020 that if we were to rely solely on vaccines as the only solution, we could lose the very controlled measures that were available to us at the time. And I think so to some extent is the case, “said Ryan. The addition of the colder seasons and recent holidays may also have played a role in spreading the virus.

“Much of the transmission has happened because we are reducing our physical distance … We are not breaking the chains of transmission. The virus is taking advantage of our lack of tactical commitment,” he added. “We’re not doing as well as we could.”

Dr. Bruce Aylward, a senior adviser to the WHO Director General, echoed Ryan’s comments, saying vaccines are not “silver bullets”.

“It can get worse, the numbers can go up,” he said. We have vaccines, yes. However, we have limited stocks of vaccines that are slowly being introduced around the world. And vaccines aren’t perfect. They don’t protect everyone from every situation. “

In the United States, the vaccination rate is slower than officials hoped. More than 31.1 million doses of vaccine had been distributed in the U.S. as of 6 a.m. ET Friday, but just over 12.2 million vaccinations had been given, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The cases are now increasing rapidly. The United States records at least 238,800 new Covid-19 cases and at least 3,310 virus-related deaths every day, based on a 7-day average calculated by CNBC using Johns Hopkins data.

On Thursday President-elect Joe Biden unveiled a comprehensive plan to combat the coronavirus pandemic in the United States. While his government will invest billions in a vaccine campaign, it will, among other things, expand testing, invest in new treatments, and work to identify new strains.

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New Covid variant first present in UK might develop into dominant pressure in U.S. by March, CDC says

The director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Robert Redfield, holds up a CDC document that reads “COVID-19 Vaccination Program Interim Playbook for Jurisdiction Operations” while speaking during a Senate Subcommittee on Appropriations hearing on Capitol Hill Washington, United States, Sept. 16, 2020 .

Andrew Harnik | Reuters

A more contagious strain of the coronavirus, first found in the UK late last year, could become the dominant strain in the United States by March as the nation seeks to vaccinate people against the disease, according to a new study by the Centers for Disease Control fights contraception.

“The modeled trajectory of this variant in the USA shows Rapid growth in early 2021, which will become the predominant variant in March, “according to the CDC study published on Friday.

The researchers warned that increasing its spread could place a greater strain on the country’s hospitals and require greater public health action to curb transmission of the virus until enough people are vaccinated. Increased surveillance of the mutating viruses, coupled with better compliance with public health measures such as masks, hand washing and physical distancing, could help slow the spread of the virus.

“These measures will be more effective if taken sooner rather than later to slow the initial spread of variant B.1.1.7. Efforts to prepare the health system for further spikes in certain cases are warranted,” the researchers said.

So far, according to CDC data, which were last updated on Wednesday, the country has only found 76 Covid-19 cases with the highly infectious variant B.1.1.7. However, many of the identified cases involved people with no travel history, suggesting that the variant is spreading undetected in the community.

Global health experts have claimed that while the new strain found in the UK and a similar strain found in South Africa are more contagious, they do not appear to make people sick or make a person more likely to die.

However, more cases could ultimately lead to additional hospital stays if the nation is already home to record Covid-19 patients. The rapid transmission of the new variants could require more people to be vaccinated in order to achieve something called herd immunity, the researchers said.

Herd immunity is when enough of the population is immune to a disease, either through vaccination or natural infection, which makes it unlikely to spread and protect the rest of the community, the Mayo Clinic says.

The US has been sluggish in its vaccination efforts and missed its target of vaccinating 20 million people by the end of last year. The US has delivered more than 31.1 million doses to date, but only administered 12.3 million of them, according to CDC data.

There is also concern that the new variants, particularly the strain found in South Africa, may be more resistant to monoclonal antibody treatments, which have been shown to reduce the chances of someone ending up in hospital if infected early enough.

The CDC study

The agency’s investigation found that while the current prevalence of the variant in the US is still unknown, the analysis makes up less than 0.5% of cases. The US has not yet discovered the variant found in South Africa or any other strain identified in Japan in travelers from Brazil, the researchers said.

In their model, the researchers estimated that the variant was 50% more transmissible than the current strains. They also estimate that between 10% and 30% of people already have immunity to pre-existing infections and will be given 1 million doses of vaccine daily starting this month.

Although the prevalence of strain B.1.1.7 is estimated to be low due to its high transferability, it is likely to grow rapidly in early 2021, as the model showed. Even with vaccines, the variant will continue to spread, although the drugs showed the greatest effect in reducing the transmission of the strain in places where the disease was already regressing.

“Early efforts that can limit the spread of variant B.1.1.7, such as universal and increased adherence to public health containment strategies, will leave more time for ongoing vaccinations to achieve higher population immunity,” said it in the study.

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A brand new Covid variant has been found — this is what we all know to this point

A patient arrives at 28 de Agosto Hospital in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil on January 14, 2021 amid the novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. Manaus faces a lack of oxygen and sleeping places as the city has been overrun by a second surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths.

MICHAEL DANTAS | AFP | Getty Images

LONDON – A new variant of coronavirus identified in Brazil has heightened concern among public health experts, leading to warnings that more new strains are likely to emerge.

The news of the variant in Brazil comes after two separate mutant strains of the virus were discovered in the UK and South Africa earlier this year.

Researchers are urgently investigating the variants of Covid that are believed to have similar characteristics in order to better understand the threat they pose.

Viruses mutate naturally, and there is no evidence that the newly discovered strains have more serious disease outcomes.

However, the Covid variants are believed to be more transmissible than the original variant that triggered the pandemic, and this could lead to higher numbers of serious infections and additional deaths.

Health officials have recommended washing hands, physically distancing yourself, and using personal protective equipment to prevent the virus from spreading.

What is known about the variant found in Brazil?

Earlier this month, the Japanese National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) announced that it had discovered a new variant of Covid in four travelers from the Brazilian state of Amazonas on January 2.

A man in his forties who was found to be asymptomatic when he arrived in Japan was hospitalized because his breathing condition was deteriorating. A woman in her thirties reported a sore throat and headache, a man between 10 and 19 years of age had a fever, and a young woman over 10 was asymptomatic.

This variant of the virus belongs to the strain B.1.1.248 and, according to the NIID, has 12 mutations in the spike protein. Spike proteins are used by the virus to enter cells in the body.

On January 14, 2021, nurses chatting outside 28 de Agosto Hospital in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil amid the novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic.

MICHAEL DANTAS | AFP | Getty Images

NIID said it was difficult to immediately determine how contagious the new strain is and how effective vaccines against it are.

To date, Brazil has registered more than 8.3 million Covid cases and 207,000 virus deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. The South American country is the second largest country for Covid-related deaths worldwide after the US.

Travel ban

The UK on Friday imposed a ban on travelers from South America (and Portugal and Cape Verde) to deter people from bringing the new variant into the country.

The country’s Secretary of Transportation, Grant Shapps, told the BBC this was a precautionary measure. He added that scientists believe the coronavirus vaccines will work on the new variant.

“We looked very closely at this particular mutation, unlike many other thousands, and realized that there might be a problem, not so much that the vaccine isn’t working. In fact, scientists believe it will work, just the fact is more spreadable, “said Shapps, according to Reuters.

On Thursday, British chief advisor Patrick Vallance told ITV that there was a “slightly greater risk” of the vaccine’s effectiveness with regard to the Covid variant identified in Brazil.

What about the mutant strains in the UK and South Africa?

On December 14th, the UK health authorities reported a variant to the WHO identified as SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01. It is unclear how the new strain came about, but preliminary results have shown that it is highly infectious.

It originally appeared in the south east of England, but has since been the dominant variety in much of the UK and has spread to more than 50 other countries. Numerous nations then imposed bans on travelers from Great Britain.

Healthcare professionals wearing personal protective equipment (PPE) enter a makeshift ward devoted to treating possible COVID-19 coronavirus patients at the Steve Biko Academic Hospital in Pretoria on January 11, 2021.

Phill Magakoe | AFP | Getty Images

Independently of this, the national authorities in South Africa announced the detection of the variant 501Y.V2 on December 18. Preliminary studies have shown that variant 501Y.V2 also increases portability. It has since reportedly been found in at least 20 other countries.

The variants that emerged separately both share a genetic mutation in the spike protein.

What happens next?

Studies are currently ongoing to understand the transferability and severity of the newly discovered variants of Covid, as well as their possible effects on vaccines.

After approximately 10 months of relative inactivity, “we have seen a remarkable evolution of SARS-CoV-2 with a repeated evolutionary pattern in the worrying SARS-CoV-2 variants from the UK, South Africa and Brazil.” Dr. Trevor Bedford, a virologist and associate professor at the University of Washington, said Thursday via Twitter.

Bedford, who also works with Fred Hutch’s vaccines and infectious diseases division, warned that the hypothesis was “highly speculative” at the time. “But separately, the fact that we’ve seen three worrying variants since September suggests that more are likely to follow.”

To date, more than 93.2 million people worldwide have contracted Covid-19 with 1.99 million deaths.

Professor Devi Sridhar, Chair of Global Public Health at the University of Edinburgh, said on Friday the world has “become the playground of the virus to mutate and develop (especially) in countries that have allowed higher prevalence”.