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Moody’s Analytics on Covid outbreaks in Asia, Fed fee hikes in 2023

Asian countries need to tame the current waves of the coronavirus outbreak to prepare their economies for future rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, an economist said Monday.

Fed officials said last week that rate hikes could happen as early as 2023, diverging from earlier comments in March that said the US Federal Reserve doesn’t expect a hike until at least 2024.

Higher US rates would attract overseas investors, and central banks in other countries may have to raise their own rates in defense. Raising interest rates could help countries prevent too much capital from leaving their economies, but increasing interest rates too quickly increases the risk of an economic slowdown.

“The Asian countries need to get Covid under control so that once the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates, the economies here have an advantage and can make the transition,” said Steve Cochrane, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Moody’s Analytics CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia”.

Cochrane predicted that the US Federal Reserve could hike rates by 25 basis points once per quarter starting in 2023. The so-called dot plot of the expectations of individual Fed members indicated two rate hikes this year.

Asian countries need to get a grip on Covid so that as soon as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the economies have an advantage here and can also handle the transition.

Steve Cochrane

Chief Economist APAC, Moody’s Analytics

Many economies in Asia, including Japan, Taiwan and Malaysia, have seen a renewed spike in Covid cases in recent months – which has forced authorities to impose stricter social distancing measures. The new waves of infection come as vaccination progress in the region lags behind that in the US and Europe.

The World Bank said in a report this month that economic output in two-thirds of East Asian and Pacific countries will remain below pre-pandemic levels through 2022. Factors dampening potential economic growth in these countries include widespread Covid outbreaks and a collapse in global tourism, the bank said.

Cochrane noted that Covid outbreaks across the region are “stilling” domestic demand and keeping inflation moderate.

The economist said several Asian countries, including China, South Korea and Singapore, are stepping up Covid vaccinations. “It looks good, but it has to go on,” he said.

But other countries, including Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines, have not effectively controlled the outbreak and do not yet have strong immunization programs, Cochrane added.

– CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this report.

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Covid Lab-Leak Idea Renews ‘Achieve-of-Perform’ Analysis Debate

In the United States, “there are no biosafety rules or regulations that have the force of law,” he said. “And this is in contrast to every other aspect of biomedical research.” There are enforceable rules, for example, for experiments with human subjects, vertebrate animals, radioactive materials and lasers, but none for research with disease-causing organisms.

Dr. Relman, who also supports the need for independent regulation, cautioned that legal restrictions, as opposed to guidelines or more flexible regulations, could also pose problems. “The law is cumbersome and slow,” he said. At one point in the evolution of laws relating to biological warfare, for example, Congress prohibited the possession of smallpox. But the rule’s language, Dr. Relman said, also seemed to ban possession of the vaccine because of its genetic similarity to the virus itself. “To try to fix it took forever,” he said.

The current H.H.S. policy also doesn’t offer much guidance about working with scientists in other countries. Some have different policies about gain-of-function research, while others have none at all.

Dr. Gronvall of Johns Hopkins argued that the U.S. government cannot dictate what scientists do in other parts of the world. “You have to embrace self-governance,” she said. “You’re not able to sit on everyone’s shoulder.”

Even if other countries fall short on gain-of-function research policies, Dr. Lipsitch said that shouldn’t stop the United States from developing better ones. As the world’s leader in biomedical research, the country could set an example. “The United States is sufficiently central,” Dr. Lipsitch said. “What we do really does matter.”

Ironically, the pandemic put deliberations over such issues on hold. But there’s no question the coronavirus will influence the shape of the debate. Jesse Bloom, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, said that before the pandemic, the idea of a new virus sweeping the world and causing millions of deaths felt hypothetically plausible. Now he has seen what such a virus can do.

“You have to think really carefully about any kind of research that could lead to that sort of mishap in the future,” Dr. Bloom said.

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I’ve Recovered From Lengthy Covid. I’m One of many Fortunate Ones.

Times Insider explains who we are and what we do, and gives a behind-the-scenes look at how our journalism comes together.

I recently met a friend for lunch, one of my first social outings in New York since Covid-19 drove the world into loneliness 15 months ago. We laughed and shared a bottle of Prosecco. We didn’t wear masks. We hugged. Twice. When we said goodbye after our three-hour Gabfest, a woman said as she passed us on the street: “It’s so nice to see people happy again.”

There are signs everywhere that a normal life, or whatever it is in a post-pandemic world, is emerging again. But for the tens of thousands of people who have contracted the coronavirus and continue to have symptoms, the euphoria is short-lived. I was diagnosed with Covid-19 in April 2020 and suffered from chest pain, fatigue, fever, night sweats and other illnesses for almost 10 months that lasted long after the virus was cleared from my body. I wrote about the experience for Times Magazine earlier this year, wondering if I would ever feel like myself again.

Fortunately, I seem to be back to normal. But I was restless when I got my second vaccination three weeks ago and worried about how my body would react. I sobbed when the nurse stabbed me with a syringe; The next day I curled up in a ball on my bed, overwhelmed with the chills and fever. Researchers suspect that the vaccine may help the immune system fight off any residual virus. But the truth is we still don’t know that much about Covid.

This month, a study that tracked the health insurance records of nearly two million people in the United States who contracted the coronavirus last year found that nearly a quarter of them – 23 percent – were seeking medical treatment for new conditions, including nerve and muscle pain, high cholesterol, high blood pressure, and fatigue. It affects people of all ages, including children, and people who did not show symptoms of the virus also experienced problems.

Doctors are only just beginning to study the long-term effects of the virus. In February, the National Institutes of Health announced a $ 1.15 billion initiative to identify the causes of long-term Covid, as well as protocols to prevent and treat those whose symptoms persist. Dr. Francis S. Collins, director of the NIH, said at the time that given the number of people infected, “the public health implications could be profound”.

I got a look at it when I was writing about my experience. And what I saw was a fellowship in pain. We received emails from readers who had suffered from Covid for a long time or knew relatives who were suffering and did not know how to help. “Your incredibly factual and personal story really hit like a sledgehammer,” wrote one reader. Another reader said: “Sometimes I feel so alone in it, and when I saw your piece I felt seen, understood and less alone.”

The article was read by more than half a million online readers in the first week alone, from Tanzania to France, Japan, Brazil, India and beyond. I got calls and emails from doctors spreading it to their patients. It was cited as essential reading at a meeting of medical professionals at Stanford University Medical School. This awareness has been a boon to long-time Covid sufferers who worried that people were viewing their seemingly random symptoms as psychological rather than physiological.

Updated

June 21, 2021, 5:36 p.m. ET

“I hope your article helps doctors see that we are not all ‘on our heads’ with anxiety,” wrote one reader.

People emailed me a lot of advice. I was told to stop eating sugar, eat gluten-free, and avoid dairy products. One reader suggested acupuncture. Another recommended a vitamin cocktail with D and zinc, others encouraged breathing exercises and homeopathic medicine. Eliminating unnecessary stressful situations made me feel better. But maybe that would have been helpful, whether I had Covid or not. That way, the virus is a smart teacher.

What I find most worrying, however, is the helplessness that so many people still feel more than a year later as the country seems to joyfully wake up from its coronavirus slumber. A man wrote me a letter in January about his daughter who fell ill last summer and found little comfort. I wrote her (as well as the over 200 readers who contacted me) an email wishing her a speedy recovery. When I emailed her father last month to see how the family was doing, he said little had improved.

“It expresses a feeling of hopelessness that is so heartbreaking to us,” he wrote.

It’s heartbreaking to me too. I am grateful to hug friends and have long lunches. But with too many others the pain persists.

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Questioning if the Covid Vaccine Labored? Get the Proper Check, on the Proper Time

Now that tens of millions of Americans are vaccinated against the coronavirus, many are wondering: Do I have enough antibodies to keep me safe?

For a vast majority of people, the answer is yes. That hasn’t stopped hordes from stampeding to the local doc-in-a-box for antibody testing. But to get a reliable answer from testing, vaccinated people have to get a specific kind of test, and at the right time.

Take the test too soon, or rely on one that looks for the wrong antibodies — all too easy to do, given the befuddling array of tests now available — and you may believe yourself to still be vulnerable when you are not.

Actually, scientists would prefer that the average vaccinated person not get antibody testing at all, on the grounds that it’s unnecessary. In clinical trials, the vaccines authorized in the United States provoked a strong antibody response in virtually all of the participants.

“Most people shouldn’t even be worrying about this,” said Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale University.

But antibody tests can be crucial for people with weak immune systems or those who take certain medications — a broad category encompassing millions of people who are recipients of organ donations, have certain blood cancers, or who take steroids or other drugs that suppress the immune system. Mounting evidence suggests that a significant proportion of these people do not produce a sufficient antibody response after vaccination.

If you must get tested, or just want to, it’s essential to get the right kind of test, Dr. Iwasaki said: “I feel a little bit hesitant to recommend everybody getting tested, because unless they really understood what the test is doing, people might get this wrong sense of not having developed any antibodies.”

Early in the pandemic, many commercial tests were designed to look for antibodies to a coronavirus protein called the nucleocapsid, or just N, because after infection, those antibodies were plentiful in the blood.

But these antibodies are not as powerful as those required to prevent virus infection, nor do they last as long. More important, antibodies to the N protein are not produced by the vaccines authorized in the United States; instead, those vaccines provoke antibodies to another protein sitting on the surface of the virus, called the spike.

If people who were never infected are vaccinated and then are tested for antibodies to the N protein instead of to the spike, they may be in for a rude shock.

Credit…David Lat

David Lat, a 46-year-old legal writer in Manhattan, was hospitalized for Covid-19 for three weeks in March 2020, and he chronicled most of his illness and recovery on Twitter.

Over the following year, Mr. Lat was tested for antibodies numerous times — when he went to his pulmonologist or cardiologist for follow-ups, for example, or to donate plasma. His antibody levels were high in June 2020 but steadily fell over the following months.

Updated 

June 20, 2021, 9:45 p.m. ET

The decline “didn’t worry me,” Mr. Lat recalled recently. “I had been told to expect that they would naturally wane, but I was just happy that I was still positive.”

Mr. Lat was fully vaccinated by March 22 of this year. But an antibody test on April 21, ordered by his cardiologist, was barely positive. Mr. Lat was stunned: “I would have thought a month after being immunized, I would have antibodies through the roof.”

Mr. Lat turned to Twitter for an explanation. Florian Krammer, an immunologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, responded, asking Mr. Lat which test had been used. “That’s when I looked at the fine print on the test,” Mr. Lat said. He realized it was a test for antibodies to the N protein, not to the spike.

“It seems that by default, they just give you the nucleocapsid one,” Mr. Lat said. “I never thought to ask for a different one.”

In May, the Food and Drug Administration recommended against the use of antibody tests for assessing immunity — a decision that has drawn criticism from some scientists — and provided only bare-bones information about testing to health care providers. Many doctors are still unaware of the differences between antibody tests, or the fact that the tests measure just one form of immunity to the virus.

Rapid tests that are commonly available deliver a yes-no result and may miss low levels of antibodies. A certain type of lab test, called an Elisa test, may offer a semi-quantitative estimate of antibodies to the spike protein.

It’s also important to wait to be tested at least two weeks after the second shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines, when antibody levels will have risen enough to be detectable. For some people receiving the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, that period may be as long as four weeks.

“It’s the timing and the antigen and the sensitivity of the assay — these are going to be very important,” Dr. Iwasaki said.

In November, the World Health Organization set standards for antibody testing, allowing for comparison of different tests. “There’s a lot of good tests out there now,” Dr. Krammer said. “Little by little, all these manufacturers, all these places that run them are adapting to international units.”

Antibodies are just one aspect of immunity, noted Dr. Dorry Segev, a transplant surgeon and researcher at Johns Hopkins University: “There’s a lot happening under the surface that antibody tests are not directly measuring.” The body also maintains so-called cellular immunity, a complex network of defenders that also responds to invaders.

Still, for someone who is vaccinated but immunocompromised, it may be very helpful to know that protection against the virus isn’t what it should be, he said. For example, a transplant patient with poor antibody levels might be able to use test results to convince an employer that he or she should continue to work remotely.

Mr. Lat has not sought another test. Just learning that the vaccine most likely has given him a fresh increase of antibodies, despite his test results, was reassurance enough: “I trust that the vaccines work.”

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Covid Lab-Leak Principle Renews “Achieve-of-Operate” Analysis Debate

In the United States, “there are no biosafety rules or regulations that have the force of law,” he said. “And this is in contrast to every other aspect of biomedical research.” There are enforceable rules, for example, for experiments with human subjects, vertebrate animals, radioactive materials and lasers, but none for research with disease-causing organisms.

Dr. Relman, who also supports the need for independent regulation, cautioned that legal restrictions, as opposed to guidelines or more flexible regulations, could also pose problems. “The law is cumbersome and slow,” he said. At one point in the evolution of laws relating to biological warfare, for example, Congress prohibited the possession of smallpox. But the rule’s language, Dr. Relman said, also seemed to ban possession of the vaccine because of its genetic similarity to the virus itself. “To try to fix it took forever,” he said.

The current H.H.S. policy also doesn’t offer much guidance about working with scientists in other countries. Some have different policies about gain-of-function research, while others have none at all.

Dr. Gronvall of Johns Hopkins argued that the U.S. government cannot dictate what scientists do in other parts of the world. “You have to embrace self-governance,” she said. “You’re not able to sit on everyone’s shoulder.”

Even if other countries fall short on gain-of-function research policies, Dr. Lipsitch said that shouldn’t stop the United States from developing better ones. As the world’s leader in biomedical research, the country could set an example. “The United States is sufficiently central,” Dr. Lipsitch said. “What we do really does matter.”

Ironically, the pandemic put deliberations over such issues on hold. But there’s no question the coronavirus will influence the shape of the debate. Jesse Bloom, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, said that before the pandemic, the idea of a new virus sweeping the world and causing millions of deaths felt hypothetically plausible. Now he has seen what such a virus can do.

“You have to think really carefully about any kind of research that could lead to that sort of mishap in the future,” Dr. Bloom said.

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Covid Proved the C.D.C. Is Damaged. Can It Be Fastened?

MacCannell says he did everything he could to get the crisis under control: he and his team developed protocols to help public health labs launch new sequencing programs; developed plans to collaborate with commercial laboratories, which have a much larger overall capacity; and set up a consortium of scientists across the country to collaborate and pool resources. But those efforts are only stopgaps, he admits, and in any case, the approval and funding required to get started was delayed by many months. “There was a big gap between what we expected and what we actually saw,” says MacCannell. “Not just at the federal level, but at every step from there.”

Genomic surveillance is one of many shortcomings that plague the disease surveillance system that the CDC presides over. These deficiencies are invisible to anyone who does not work in the field, because at first glance the system makes sense. Public health emergencies identified at the local level are reported to state health officials and then passed on to the CDC as necessary, where officials analyze the information, issue guidelines, and coordinate federal action. There is a special system for the 120 or so “reportable diseases” – like Lyme disease and hepatitis – all of which agree are serious enough to warrant immediate action, and another for “syndromic surveillance,” according to the epidemiologist Search the emergency room in real time can search data on symptoms of concern. But under this broad structure there is often chaos.

As the coronavirus turned into a full blown pandemic, CDC scientists struggled to answer even basic questions about what the disease looked like or where or how it spread.

The system itself is profoundly disjointed and the technology behind it is less mature than many American households. State health departments are not meaningfully linked, nor are hospitals, clinics, laboratories and local health authorities. The CDC maintains more than 100 separate disease-specific computer systems (a by-product of the agency’s funding silos), and many of them cannot communicate with one another. Critical data is often passed from health facilities to health departments through a tortured process that can include handwritten notes, manual spreadsheets, fax machines, and mail. It is not uncommon for basic information such as race, ethnicity, age, or address to be missing from clinical reports. It’s also not uncommon for these reports to wane at the state or local level without ever getting to federal officials. Even the most serious diseases, which should be logged within 24 hours of their discovery and reported to the CDC in good time, are not necessarily systematically routed into this chain. “It depends on the jurisdiction,” Janet Hamilton, executive director of the State and Territorial Epidemiologists Council, recently told me. “Some regions have solid health departments and good reporting, while others don’t.”

Disease surveillance is also hampered by the uneven patchwork of surveillance programs across the country and the need to negotiate data sharing and other agreements with each state separately. Antibiotic resistance, respiratory infections and other pathogens are being tracked robustly in some areas and very poorly or not at all in others (for example, respiratory infections are monitored more closely in the Four Corners region than elsewhere), partly because the agency does not have the ability or authority to obtain all of the data it needs every community. Hanage compares the entire apparatus with a Rube Goldberg machine. “There is nothing central,” he says. “Random patchwork collaborations were initiated and transformed and are now having an overwhelming impact on our understanding of public health. Don’t let that criticize the people who did these things because the alternative couldn’t have been anything. But the result is something without a rational plan behind it. “

The loopholes make it difficult to track even known diseases and barely get a grip on new ones. During a recent romaine lettuce E. coli outbreak, officials were forced to make billion-dollar life or death decisions about which products to pull from which shelves in which regions of the country, based on data that included screenshots and text-messages to epidemiologists and health authorities. During the 2019 Vaping Injury (or Evali) outbreak, doctors faxed hundreds of pages of medical records directly to local health officials in some cases. Epidemiologists could hardly process the data in this format, let alone analyze it for clues. “There’s no pre-built process when something like a vaping injury or Zika or SARS-CoV-2 comes up,” says Hamilton. “There are 64 different public health jurisdictions in this country, and each will have their own ideas about what information should be collected and shared.”

In 2020, as the coronavirus went from a few isolated outbreaks to a full-blown pandemic, CDC scientists struggled to answer even basic questions about what the disease itself looked like or where or how it spread. “We were asked who is being hospitalized, who are the severe cases, what are the characteristics, and it was so frustrating,” Anne Schuchat, the agency’s deputy director, told a panel of colleagues last fall. “People went out to check graphs manually. I felt like the health sector has this data. It’s in their system. Can we work with them? ”The agency was unable to reliably track the number of tests or cases across the country. It also struggled to update hospital records, which include things like bed availability and ventilator supplies. The Trump administration hired a private contractor to collect this data on charges of political favoritism. And when multiple vaccines were eventually deployed, the agency was unable to monitor supplies or keep a close eye on waste.

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5 years earlier than vaccine can maintain line towards Covid variants

Covid vaccinator, Petra Moinar, prepares syringes with the AstraZeneca vaccine before it is administered at Battersea Arts Centre on March 8, 2021 in London, England.

Chris J Ratcliffe | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — England’s top medical officer has warned that the coming winter will continue to be difficult for the country’s health system despite the country’s successful coronavirus vaccination program.

A further easing of lockdown restrictions in England was delayed this week due to a surge in cases of the delta variant first discovered in India. 

In a speech to the NHS Confederation Thursday, Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said the current wave of Covid infections due to the delta variant would likely be followed by another surge in the winter.

He said that Covid-19 “has not thrown its last surprise at us and there will be several more [variants] over the next period,” according to Sky News. He added that it would likely take five years before there are vaccines that could “hold the line” to a very large degree against a range of coronavirus variants.

And until then, he said that new vaccination programs and booster shots would be needed.

In the U.K., where the delta variant is now responsible for the bulk of new infections, cases have spiked among young people and the unvaccinated, leading to a rise in hospitalizations in those cohorts.

It’s hoped that Covid-19 vaccination programs can stop the spread of the delta variant and so the race is on to protect younger people who might not be fully vaccinated. 

Analysis from Public Health England released on Monday showed that two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccines are highly effective against hospitalization from the delta variant.

But some vaccines are reported to be less effective against other strains. For example, British Health Secretary Matt Hancock said earlier this month that it has started commercial negotiations with AstraZeneca to secure a variant vaccine — which has been adapted to tackle the variant first discovered in South Africa.

Meanwhile, trials of booster shots are already underway in Britain and there are reports that the population will receive a third shot before winter this year. 

Over 42 million people have had a first dose of a vaccine in Britain — that’s about 80% of the adult population — and over 30 million people have had their second dose.

—CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt contributed to this article.

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Covid Survivors Scent Meals Otherwise

“There are daily reports of recovery from long-distance drivers in terms of improvement in parosmia and fairly good sense of smell in patients,” said Professor Hopkins.

Ms. Viegut, 25, fears that she may not be able to detect a gas leak or fire. That’s a real risk, as shown by the experience of a family in Waco, Texas in January who didn’t realize their home was on fire. Almost all members had lost their sense of smell because of Covid; they escaped, but the house was destroyed.

Parosmia is one of several Covid-related problems related to smell and taste. Partial or complete loss of smell or anosmia is often the first symptom of the coronavirus. Loss of taste or ageusia can also be a symptom.

Prior to Covid, parosmia received relatively little attention, said Nancy E. Rawson, vice president and assistant director of the Monell Chemical Senses Center in Philadelphia, an internationally renowned nonprofit research group.

“We’d have a big conference and one of the doctors could have a case or two,” said Dr. Rawson.

In a French study from early 2005, the majority of the 56 cases examined were attributed to upper respiratory tract infections.

Today, scientists can point to more than 100 reasons for odor loss and distortion, including viruses, sinusitis, head trauma, chemotherapy, Parkinson’s disease, and Alzheimer’s disease, said Dr. Zara M. Patel, associate professor of ENT medicine at Stanford University and director of endoscopic skull base surgery.

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WHO says delta is turning into the dominant Covid variant globally

A joint government and NHS public information display will indicate that a Covid-19 variant concern has been identified locally and will provide guidance to residents on June 11, 2021 in Hounslow, UK.

Mark Kerrison | In pictures | Getty Images

Delta, the highly contagious variant of Covid-19 that was first identified in India, is becoming the dominant strain of the disease worldwide, the World Health Organization’s chief scientist said on Friday.

This is due to its “significantly increased transferability,” said Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, WHO senior scientist, during a press conference at the agency’s Geneva headquarters. Studies suggest Delta is about 60% more transmissible than Alpha, the variant first identified in the UK that was more contagious than the original strain that emerged from Wuhan, China in late 2019.

The situation worldwide “is so dynamic because of the variants circulating,” she added.

The variant has spread to more than 80 countries and continues to mutate as it spreads around the world, the WHO said on Wednesday. It now accounts for 10% of all new cases in the United States, up from 6% last week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky urged Americans on Friday to get vaccinated against Covid, saying she expected Delta to become the dominant variant of coronavirus in the United States.

“As worrying as this Delta strain is about its hypertransmittance, our vaccines are working,” Walensky told ABC’s Good Morning America. If you get vaccinated, “you will be protected against this Delta variant,” she added.

In the UK, the Delta variety recently became the dominant variety there, surpassing Alpha, which was first discovered in the country last fall. The Delta variant now accounts for more than 60% of new cases in the UK

The WHO declared Delta a “questionable variant” last month. A variant can be described as “worrying” if, according to the health organization, it has been shown to be more contagious, more fatal, or more resistant to current vaccines and treatments.

WHO officials said Wednesday there are reports that the Delta variant also causes more severe symptoms, but that more research is needed to confirm these conclusions. Still, there is evidence that the Delta strain may cause different symptoms than other variants.

Swaminathan said Friday that scientists still need more data on the variant, including how it affects the effectiveness of Covid vaccines.

The German company CureVac earlier this week named variants as one of the reasons why its Covid vaccine was only 47% effective in a clinical study with 40,000 people.

An analysis published by Public Health England on Monday found that two doses of the Pfizer BioNTech or AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccines are highly effective against hospitalizations from the Delta variant.

“How many become infected and how many of them are hospitalized and seriously ill?” said Swaminathan on Friday. “That is something that we are watching very closely.”

– CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt and Rich Mendez contributed to this report.

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Biden says delta Covid variant is ‘notably harmful’ for younger folks

President Joe Biden speaks in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington on Friday, June 18, 2021, regarding the achievement of 300 million COVID-19 vaccinations.

Evan Vucci | AP

President Joe Biden on Friday doubled his government’s request that Americans get vaccinated against Covid-19 as soon as possible, warning that the highly transmissible Delta variant appears to be “particularly dangerous” for young people.

“The data is clear: if you are not vaccinated, there is a risk that you will become seriously ill or die or spread,” Biden said during a White House press conference.

Delta, the variant of Covid identified for the first time in India, “will make unvaccinated people even more vulnerable than it was a month ago,” he added. “It’s a more easily transmissible, potentially more deadly, and particularly dangerous variant for young people.”

Biden said that young people can best protect themselves by getting fully vaccinated.

“Please, please, when you have a shot, get the second shot as soon as you can,” he said.

The president’s remarks come as his administration’s latest goal of partially vaccinating 70% of US adults by July 4th is on the way to falling as the pace of vaccination slows.

The World Health Organization’s chief scientist said Friday that Delta is becoming the dominant strain of the disease worldwide. This is due to its “significantly increased transferability,” said Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, WHO senior scientist, during a press conference.

Studies suggest that Delta is about 60% more transmissible than Alpha, the variant first identified in the UK that was more contagious than the original strain that emerged from Wuhan, China in late 2019.

Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, also said Friday that she expects Delta to become the predominant variant in the United States and urged people to get vaccinated. The variant now accounts for 10% of all new cases in the US, up from 6% last week, according to data from CDC.

“As worrying as this Delta strain is about its hypertransmittance, our vaccines are working,” Walensky told ABC’s Good Morning America. If you get vaccinated, “you will be protected against this Delta variant,” she added.

Health experts say the Delta strain is of particular concern for young people, many of whom do not yet need to be vaccinated. While scientists still don’t know if Delta is causing more severe symptoms, there is evidence that it could cause different symptoms than other variants.

Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, said the Delta variant essentially replaced Alpha, the variant that swept Europe and later the US earlier this year. He said as the virus continues to mutate, the US will need a higher percentage of the vaccinated population.

“How much more information do we need to see this virus mutate and create viruses that are more contagious?” said Offit, also a member of the FDA’s Advisory Committee on Vaccines and Related Biological Products. “We have to vaccinate now. Let everyone vaccinate now.”

According to the CDC, as of Friday, more than 176 million Americans, or 53.1% of the population, had had at least one injection. More than 148 million Americans are fully vaccinated, according to the agency.

States are offering incentives ranging from free beer to $ 1 million worth of lotteries to try to convince Americans to get a prick.

On Friday, Biden announced some of these incentives, including the fact that most pharmacies offer 24-hour service on select days in June.