Tag: Common

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Health

A Frequent Coronary heart Downside That’s Straightforward to Miss

A Common Heart Problem That’s Easy to Miss

Longer term, most patients with A-fib can be effectively and safely treated with medication, usually drugs called beta blockers and calcium blockers that help the heart sustain a normal rhythm. Patients are also given an anticoagulant to prevent blood clots.

Several currently popular anticoagulants, including Xarelto (rivaroxaban), which Mr. Hallick takes, have persistent anti-clotting effects even if patients miss a dose or two, which may help to avert a stroke. These anticoagulants also do not require close repeated monitoring of their effects on clotting, unlike their predecessor Coumadin (warfarin), which was for many years the leading anticoagulant to treat A-fib. Coumadin has one important advantage over the newer medications of an almost immediate reversal of its anti-clotting effect when patients must stop taking it to prevent excessive bleeding, say, before surgery or following an injury.

Yes, that’s what happened with Mr. Hallick. He was doing well on medication for seven years until May, when a routine checkup revealed that, unbeknown to him, his A-fib had recurred and his heart was beating 165 times a minute, about double the normal rate.

“I had been getting a little out of breath and finding it harder to walk uphill, but I wrote it off,” he recalled. “I thought I’m now 70 and maybe really out of shape thanks to the pandemic.”

A medication change and two shocks to try to restore a normal heart rhythm helped only briefly, and Mr. Hallick has just undergone a procedure that promises a more lasting benefit: destruction of the cells along the back wall of his heart’s left atrium that are transmitting erratic signals to the ventricles. The procedure, called ablation, involves snaking a catheter through a vein into the atrium and usually either burning or freezing the cells that misfire.

Controlled trials have shown that over time, ablation is significantly more effective in correcting A-fib than drug therapy. In one recent study of 203 patients, ablation successfully prevented A-fib a year later in about 75 percent of patients in one group, whereas drug therapy helped only 45 percent of the patients in the other. In otherwise healthy people like Mr. Hallick, ablation often can be done as an outpatient procedure, followed by a few days of limited activity while the heart heals from resulting inflammation.

Dr. Stevenson of Vanderbilt said some patients with persistent A-fib prefer to undergo ablation rather than continually taking medications, which can cause bleeding problems or other side effects. On the other hand, the benefit of ablation is sometimes delayed. In the first few months after ablation, he said, about half of patients experience abnormal heart rhythms and may require a cardiac shock or drug treatment until the heart fully recovers from the procedure.

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Health

Lab origin of Covid ‘one risk,’ animal host is most typical

Lab origin of Covid 'one possibility,' animal host is most common

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Dr. Rochelle Walensky testified during a Senate Funds Subcommittee hearing to consider fiscal 2022 budget application for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on May 19, 2021 in Washington, DC.

Jim Lo Scalzo | AFP | Getty Images

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, on Wednesday, did not rule out the possibility that Covid-19 could have come from a laboratory, saying it was “certainly” “a possibility”.

However, most coronaviruses “are generally of animal origin,” Walensky said on the Senate testimony after saying she hadn’t seen enough data to give her opinion on how the current pandemic was created.

The statements by the Biden government’s chief health official came amid growing calls to investigate whether the virus was zoonotic, animal, or from a laboratory in Wuhan, China.

The World Health Organization said in a report in March that it was “extremely unlikely” that the virus was transmitted to humans through an accidental laboratory leak. However, this conclusion has been heavily criticized, and other scientists have since called for further investigation.

“Theories about accidental release from a laboratory and about zoonotic overflows are still viable,” said a letter from 18 scientists published last week in Science. Other scholars have criticized this letter for drawing the wrong equivalence between the likelihood of a laboratory leak and a natural-origin scenario, the New York Times reported.

The CDC website currently states that while the exact source of the outbreak is unknown, “we do know that it originally came from an animal, likely a bat”.

Covid-19 was first discovered in Wuhan in the Chinese province of Hubei.

The emergence of the virus has also become a hotly debated topic in American politics.

At Wednesday’s hearing on the CDC’s budget for the next fiscal year beginning October 1, Senator John Kennedy, R-La., Asked Walensky for her opinion on where the pandemic began.

“I don’t think I’ve seen enough data, individual data, to comment on this,” said Walensky.

When asked about the possibilities, Walensky said, “Certainly the possibilities from which most of the coronaviruses known to us that have infected the population – SARS CoV-1, MERS – are generally of animal origin.”

Kennedy replied, “Are there any other options?”

“Surely a laboratory-based provenance is a possibility,” said Walensky.

Covid-19 turned into a pandemic in March 2020. The virus has now infected more than 164 million people and killed more than 3.4 million people worldwide, according to Johns Hopkins University.

Robert Redfield, the former CDC director who worked on the U.S.’s response to the pandemic under ex-President Donald Trump, said in March he believed the coronavirus came from a Wuhan laboratory.

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Health

Hug with ‘care and customary sense,’ Boris Johnson says

Hug with 'care and common sense,' Boris Johnson says

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson briefs on the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic during a virtual press conference at 10 Downing Street in central London on March 18, 2021.

Tolga Akmen

LONDON – British Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed on Monday that England will move into the next phase of its program to ease the coronavirus lockdown on May 17th.

Indoor facilities such as cinemas and hotels are reopening, but with some capacity constraints. Pubs and restaurants are allowed to welcome customers back indoors, and indoor mixing is allowed to resume for groups of up to six people.

People can also meet outdoors in groups of up to 30 people.

Johnson said the social distancing rules for public spaces remain in place, but people can make their own judgment in private.

When asked about the hug, Johnson said at a news conference Monday, “People should do it when they see fit, when they think the risks are very, very small.”

“But you should use care and common sense. And people who are not vaccinated must have a clearly higher risk of transmission than those who have been vaccinated,” he added.

Johnson has been heavily criticized for the initial response to the coronavirus pandemic. With more than 127,000 reported deaths, the UK has one of the worst death rates in Europe and the world.

But Johnson has also been at the forefront of a successful vaccination campaign that saw more than 50% of the country’s population receive at least one dose of vaccine.

International travel can be resumed next Monday in most cases, although quarantines and testing would for the most part be required upon return to the UK. The government hopes to lift all restrictions on social contact by June 21st.

Around noon on Monday, UK chief medical officers agreed to lower the country’s Covid-19 alert level from 4 – meaning transmission is high or increasing exponentially – to level 3, meaning the epidemic is in general circulation.

– CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt contributed to this article.

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Health

Jeff Bezos is obsessive about a standard Amazon warehouse harm

Jeff Bezos is obsessed with a common Amazon warehouse injury

An employee searches for items in one of the corridors of an Amazon warehouse.

Carlos Jasso | Reuters

In his last letter to shareholders, Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon, called for a deep dive into musculoskeletal disorders, which account for approximately 40% of work-related injuries across the company and affect millions of workers worldwide in various sectors. It is often synonymous with jobs in manufacturing and places like warehouses.

Of course, from the recent union battle at an Alabama warehouse to the conditions for key employees during the pandemic, Amazon’s treatment of its employees has become a major issue. And it has been cited for a high incidence of work-related accidents in recent years, although the company has stated in the past that it also reports more work-related accidents than its peers due to a more proactive safety culture.

“If you read some of the news, you might think we don’t care about employees,” wrote Bezos in his letter released earlier this month. “In these reports, our employees are sometimes accused of being distressed souls and being treated as robots. This is incorrect. They are sophisticated and thoughtful people who have options for the workplace.”

But they also suffer from MSDs that occur on jobs that can be described as robot-like repetition. Bezos’ in-depth remarks on this workplace injury were one of the first announcements by a large company to bring wider attention to the problem, according to several experts consulted by CNBC. It is estimated that MSDs cost US companies over $ 50 billion each year, resulting in an average of 21 to 32 days of work interruption between 1997 and 2010. In addition to warehouse work at Amazon, MSD issues in meat processing and poultry factories have recently drawn attention.

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MSDs, often referred to as “ergonomic injuries,” are typically strains and sprains caused by repetitive movement, overexertion, or performing tasks in awkward positions, and include problems such as carpal tunnel syndrome and tendinitis. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, retail, manufacturing, and welfare jobs accounted for 50% of all MSD cases in the private sector. While they are common in factory workplaces and with first-time workers, they can also occur through exercise, desk work, and everyday use.

“MSDs are common in the type of work we do and are more likely to occur in the first six months of an employee,” wrote Bezos, adding that the company had started a program to target small groups of employees on body mechanics and safety coaching, which helped a 32% decrease in injuries between 2019 and 2020, while time as a result of injuries “decreased by more than half,” Bezos said in the latest letter. “We need to invent solutions to reduce MSDs for new hires, many of whom may be working in a physical role for the first time.”

Amazon declined to provide additional information to CNBC about its ongoing MSD efforts.

While MSD cases in the US workplace have declined over the past decade, approximately 1.71 billion people worldwide have musculoskeletal disorders, with lower back pain being the most common, the World Health Organization reported. This number is expected to increase as the population ages and grows.

“Many of these injuries are actually preventable, they’re not accidents, we can work to prevent them and make a big difference for patients,” said Anna Miller, vice chairwoman of the orthopedic surgery department and director of the orthopedic trauma department Washington University School of Medicine.

The dangers of repetitive work

While it is common for manufacturing workers to work on the repetitive assembly line, they can also occur while sitting in a home office doing remote work.

One of the biggest problems with MSDs is that there is no specific reason why they are occurring, and they can arise on the fly from a seemingly minor task like climbing stairs, says John Dony, senior director of the National Safety Council. There is little research into how they occur, why they occur, and who is most susceptible. While older workers often suffer from wear and tear, younger workers often try to overcome the risks or fail to understand the risks, Dony said.

Some studies suggest obesity, genetics, or smoking may increase the risk of MSD, but the causal link data isn’t very clear, says Andrew N. Pollak, senior vice president of clinical transformation and chief of orthopedics at the university’s medical system of Maryland.

Very limited federal funding is allocated to this research, but large companies like Amazon, which now employs over a million people, are better able to gather information to share with other companies.

“This type of research has been difficult to do in smaller companies because you just don’t have the same number of people doing the same jobs as you would with a giant like Amazon,” says Pollak.

MSDs can also lead to mental health problems for many frontline workers, and many people keep working after exposure because they need the money, Miller says.

In many service-oriented professions, workers are under pressure to keep working to make the customer happy and deal with injuries to meet the goals, says Jaimo Ahn, professor and chair of education in the Department of Orthopedic Surgery at the Health System University of Michigan.

“If you are not getting there, or if you feel that you are not where you need to be, then move on,” said Ahn.

Solving the MSD Problem

In addition to the WorkingWell coaching program, which was introduced as part of Amazon’s workplace safety efforts last year for 859,000 employees in 250 locations, Amazon is also developing automated workforce plans that use “sophisticated algorithms for rotating employees” across jobs to prevent overuse of certain muscle groups and injuries, and that started rolling out this year.

Rotation schedules are one of the easiest precautionary solutions to preventing continued use of a particular muscle, as well as teaching workers how to lift from their legs instead of their arms or back. It also helps construct a job that involves excessive bending, requires non-slip shoes, or requires workers to lift heavy objects with a partner. Some companies have already put these guidelines in place, but they are sometimes ignored or not well communicated, Dony said.

Other alternatives include automating and implementing robots or machines that can minimize hand use and help with lifting, or handheld devices that show the environment and detail the span and range of motion. Robots have historically been a point of contention for workplace injuries, in some cases because of increasing risks to human workers, including requiring workers to move too fast to keep up ergonomically. However, the company’s executives have rejected this argument.

Solving MSDs outside of Amazon, across the world of work, and for many smaller, less deep-pocketed employers, begins with assessing the risk and walking through the workspaces.

“If you don’t even assess the risk or hazard you’re exposing someone to, you’re already behind the game,” says Dony.

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World News

In Nigeria, ‘Feminist’ Was a Frequent Insult. Then Got here the Feminist Coalition.

In Nigeria, ‘Feminist’ Was a Common Insult. Then Came the Feminist Coalition.

LAGOS, Nigeria – During the largest demonstrations in Nigeria’s recent history, 13 women came together to support their fellow citizens who risked their lives to march against police brutality.

The women were all in their 20s and 30s. All at the top of their fields. Many had never met in person. They found each other months earlier on social media and called their group the Feminist Coalition. They jokingly called themselves “The Avengers”.

“We decided that if we don’t step in, the people who suffer the most would be women,” said Odunayo Eweniyi, a 27-year-old technology entrepreneur and founding member of the Feminist Coalition.

They raised hundreds of thousands of dollars through crowdfunding websites last year to support protesters who took to the streets to denounce human rights abuses by a police unit called the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS). The Feminist Coalition provided the demonstrators with basic services: legal aid, emergency food, masks, raincoats. But when peaceful protesters were shot by the military and the demonstrations ended, the Feminist Coalition did not.

Now their goals are set higher. They want equality for Nigerian women and focus on issues such as sexual violence, women’s education, financial equality and political representation.

The struggle for equality will not be easy. A gender equality law first introduced in 2010 has been repeatedly rejected by the male-dominated Nigerian Senate.

And then it comes down to being proud feminists in a country where the word feminist is often used as an insult.

For years it has been difficult to identify as a feminist in Nigeria. The coalition’s decision to use the word on behalf of the organization and the female symbol in its yellow logo was highlighted. Many of the protesters who benefited from their support were men – and not all had supported women’s rights.

“We only used the word because we wanted to let them know where the money was coming from,” said Ms. Eweniyi.

We spoke to some women behind the Feminist Coalition about why they joined and what they want to change in Nigeria.

Before Oluwaseun Ayodeji Osowobi founded her non-profit Stand To End Rape in 2014, it was common practice to open the newspaper in Nigeria and find a picture of a rape victim in crime coverage without thinking about what that public identification might be affecting her life. Women were raped and killed without consequences. Many health care providers had no idea how to gather evidence of rape.

Ms. Osowobi, 30, seeks to change attitudes by changing public order and practices. Her nonprofit runs seminars to help people prevent sexual violence and a rape survivor network where survivors can share experiences, care for one another, and feel less alone. She has worked on laws that prohibit sexual harassment and violence.

But usually men decide whether or not to pass such laws.

“We need more women to get into these rooms and make important guidelines and decisions that reinforce other people’s voices,” said Ms. Osowobi.

It was Tito Ovia’s National Youth Service who made it clear to her that she wanted to work for public health. At the Nigerian AIDS Control Agency, she found that a lack of data made it difficult to tell whether the money spent on HIV / AIDS prevention made a difference.

Ms. Ovia, 27, co-founded a company with friends in 2016 to ensure that health care across Africa is driven by data and technology. Helium Health has helped hospitals and clinics build electronic health records and hospital management systems.

She said she did not expect the Feminist Coalition’s work to be serious enough to support protesters as they risked their lives to try to change a police system that brutalized young people.

“I thought it would be a lot more fun, don’t let me lie,” she said with a laugh. “I thought we would meet, we would drink, we would complain about men. We would work a little. I didn’t know life was going to be threatened. “

Before joining the Feminist Coalition, 30-year-old Damilola Odufuwa founded Wine and Whine, a self-help group for Nigerian women.

She wanted to create a safe and fun place where young women could get together, have a drink, and complain about sexual harassment in the workplace, marriage pressures, the patriarchal system and its gatekeepers, and other frustrations – and then start finding solutions.

Ms. Odufuwa, the Africa public relations director for a major cryptocurrency exchange, had recently returned to Lagos from the UK to start Wine and Whine. She was impressed with the way women were treated in Nigeria.

She and her co-founder Odunayo Eweniyi – the same duo behind the Feminist Coalition – ensured that Wine and Whine also wore his feminism as a badge of honor.

“We’re a feminist organization,” Ms. Odufuwa told a male talk show host in a 2019 interview about Wine and Whine.

“Oh!” replied the hostess, sounding surprised when she used the word.

“We are very feminist,” she replied with a laugh. “Your reaction tells me that feminism is perceived as that bad thing.”

Odunayo Eweniyi, a 27-year-old tech entrepreneur, wasn’t sure how big it would be to put “feminist” in the group’s name.

“It shouldn’t be a hunt for the entire movement,” she said. “To be honest, I am now very proud that we used the word feminist because people are dealing with it in a way that the word feminist does not equate with the word terrorist.”

Although Nigeria has a history of feminist movements, identifying as a feminist is seen as radical.

Ms. Eweniyi recently got tattoos of her favorite equations: Schroëdinger’s equation, the golden ratio and the uncertainty principle.

She works to reduce the insecurity in the lives of Nigerian women.

The savings app startup Piggyvest, launched by Ms. Eweniyi in 2016, addresses one of the main problems identified by the Feminist Coalition – financial equality for women. The idea is that people should be able to save and invest even small amounts of money. It has more than 2 million customers – men and women.

As the anchor of one of the biggest Nigerian television news shows, Laila Johnson-Salami vividly remembers her male co-host who told a producer to say his name first.

But she was fearless. Via Newsday, the program on the television channel Arise, she kept Nigerians informed of the protests, which adopted the hashtag #EndSARS.

At 24, she is the youngest member of the coalition. Their main goal is to attract a younger audience. And recently she started a podcast that can help with this.

She uses her platform to hold politicians accountable but said, “If there’s one thing I know for sure in this life, it’s that Laila will never get into politics.”

The interviews that Ms. Johnson-Salami conducts on the Broken Record Podcast are very different from her television interviews. They talk extensively about everything from the importance of vulnerability to adoption and investment.

“Time is up, it’s over,” tweeted Fakhrriyyah Hashim in February 2019. “You are done getting away with monstrosities against women.”

Her tweet started the #MeToo movement in northern Nigeria. In it, Ms. Hashim coined the hashtag #ArewaMeToo – Arewa means “north” in Hausa, a West African language spoken by most northern Nigerians.

In a very conservative region where Ms. Hashim, 28, called a “culture of silence,” #ArewaMeToo has sparked a flood of testimonies about sexual violence. The Sultan of Sokoto, the highest Islamic authority in Nigeria, banned it when it spilled into street protests from social media.

Another campaign launched by Ms. Hashim, #NorthNormal, urged Nigerian states to implement laws that criminalize violence and broaden the definition of sexual violence.

Her women’s rights activism has brought her death threats and abuse. Now she has put some distance between herself and the people behind these threats after accepting a scholarship at the African Leadership Center in London.

The Feminist Coalition members all worked from home because of the pandemic. She was also able to raise awareness and resources online during the #EndSARS protests in London.

“I knew we would achieve all of the goals and targets we set,” said Ms. Hashim.

An estimated two-thirds of Nigerian girls and women do not have access to sanitary towels. You can’t afford it.

Karo Omu, 29, has been fighting for four years to bring sanitary towels and other hygiene items to Nigerian girls. It focuses on girls in public schools who come from low-income families and girls who have had to flee their homes and live in camps.

There are 2.7 million internally displaced people in northeastern Nigeria as a result of the violent and uncontrolled uprising by the Islamist group Boko Haram and its offshoots. And for many women and girls who live in the camps, it is a struggle to get enough food and clothing, let alone expensive sanitary towels.

Her organization, Sanitation Aid for Nigerian Girls, is handing out reusable pads bought with money crowdfunded by Ms. Omu and her colleagues to help girls worry less. Some of the girls they helped had never had a block before.

“Women’s problems are fought by women,” she said.

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Health

These are the commonest unwanted side effects from J&J’s

These are the most common side effects from J&J's

A Johnson & Johnson logo is seen in this photo image in front of a medical syringe and vial of coronavirus vaccine.

Pavlo Gonchar | SOPA pictures | LightRocket | Getty Images

Headache, fatigue, and muscle aches were some of the most common side effects in people who received Johnson & Johnson’s one-off coronavirus vaccine in clinical trials, according to a report by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration released Wednesday.

In the report, FDA staff endorsed J & J’s one-shot coronavirus vaccine for approval for emergency use. If approved, it will be the third vaccine to be approved in the US after Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna.

Post-vaccination side effects are common, doctors say, and usually signs that they are helping to protect against the disease. The FDA determined that the clinical trial results and safety data “are in accordance with the recommendations in the FDA guidelines on emergency approval of vaccines to prevent COVID-19.”

The most common, least severe “local” side effect among vaccinated subjects was injection site pain, which was reported by nearly half of vaccine recipients compared with about 17% in the placebo group. Skin redness or erythema and swelling were reported less frequently, the FDA said.

The most common “systemic” side effects, typically less common than local reactions but more serious, were headache and fatigue, according to the report. Almost 40% of people who received the vaccine reported having a headache, and just over 38% reported feeling tired.

More than 33% of people vaccinated said they had muscle pain, around 14% reported nausea, and under 10% had a fever, according to the report. Most of the side effects were reported in younger people ages 18 to 59, according to the FDA, although most age groups reported similar nausea rates.

FDA staff found that most people who received the vaccine were able to shake off the side effects within days of their shot.

While the rate of unexpected side effects was similar between the vaccine and placebo groups, there was a slight imbalance in some responses in the vaccine group compared to those given a placebo. The vaccine group reported 15 cases of “embolic and thrombotic events” or blood clots in 14 recipients compared to 10 in the placebo group.

There were also six cases of tinnitus, a ringing or buzzing in at least one ear, among vaccine recipients compared to none in the placebo group, the FDA found.

However, the agency said current data “is insufficient to establish a causal link between these events and the vaccine”.

The report found a “balanced” number of cases of Bell Paralysis, a condition in which half of your face falls off. The FDA previously announced that the condition would be monitored in recipients of other vaccines and noted that this isn’t necessarily a side effect, but it’s worth looking out for.

The FDA said there have been no reports of anaphylaxis – a serious and life-threatening allergic reaction that rarely occurs after vaccination – immediately after vaccination.

Some cases of anaphylaxis have been reported in people who received either Pfizer’s or Moderna’s shot, although researchers say they occurred in the range of cases reported for the influenza vaccine, according to a report published Friday by the U.S. Centers for the Disease control and prevention stating.

J&J first submitted its Covid vaccine data to the FDA on February 4th. While the vaccine’s level of protection varied by region, the company said the vaccine prevented 100% of hospital admissions and deaths.

– CNBC’s Berkeley Lovelace Jr. contributed to this report.

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Health

CDC says these are the most typical

CDC says these are the most common

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new data on Friday listing the most common side effects Americans have reported after receiving shots of Pfizers or Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccines.

The data is based on transmissions to the agency’s v-safe text messaging system and to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, a national program for monitoring vaccination safety. The analysis used data from the first month of vaccination between December 14 and January 13, when more than 13.7 million doses were administered.

The CDC said there were 6,994 reports of so-called post-vaccination adverse events, including 6,354 classified as “not serious” and 640 as “serious”, including 113 deaths. The mean age of vaccine recipients, according to VAERS data, was 42 years and the majority of adverse events occurred in women.

The most common side effects after receiving the vaccines were headache, tiredness, and dizziness, followed by chills and nausea. The CDC said people also reported muscle pain, fever, joint pain, and pain at the injection site.

For the Pfizer vaccine, responses were more frequent after the second dose according to the v-safe data than after the first. The CDC said the reported rate of fever and chills was more than four times higher after the second dose than after the first.

Most commonly reported side effects (VAERS)

  • a headache
  • Fatigue
  • dizziness
  • chills
  • nausea

There have been 46 reports of anaphylaxis, a severe and potentially life-threatening allergic reaction, from those given Pfizer’s vaccine and 16 cases for those given Modernas, according to the CDC. The agency said the incidence of the response is within the range reported for the influenza vaccine.

Of the 113 reported deaths, two-thirds occurred in long-term care facilities, the agency said.

Medical experts say vaccine side effects are common and are actually an indication that the shots are working as intended. Many doctors advise the public to prepare for some more than usual side effects from the Covid-19 shots, especially after the second dose.

Both Pfizer and Moderna have recognized that their vaccines can produce side effects similar to symptoms associated with mild Covid-19, such as muscle pain, chills, and headaches. While the side effects can be uncomfortable, doctors say the vaccines are safe.

The CDC recommends talking to a doctor about taking over-the-counter medicines if you experience pain or discomfort after the recordings.

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Health

Coronavirus Will Resemble the Widespread Chilly, Scientists Predict

Coronavirus Will Resemble the Common Cold, Scientists Predict

Other experts said this scenario is not only plausible, it is likely.

“I fully agree with the overall intellectual construct of the paper,” said Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute of Immunology in San Diego.

If the vaccines prevent people from transmitting the virus, “it’s much more like the measles scenario where you vaccinate everyone, including children, and the virus really doesn’t infect people,” said Dr. Crotty.

It’s more plausible that the vaccines prevent disease – but not necessarily infection and transmission, he added. And that means the coronavirus will continue to circulate.

“The vaccines we currently have are unlikely to offer sterilizing immunity,” said Jennifer Gommerman, an immunologist at the University of Toronto.

A natural infection with the coronavirus leads to a strong immune response in the nose and throat. But with the current vaccines, Dr. Gommerman: “You don’t get a natural immune response in the actual upper airways, you get an injection in your arm.” This increases the likelihood that infections will still occur after vaccination.

Ultimately, Dr. Lavine’s model on the assumption that the new coronavirus is similar to the common cold coronavirus. That assumption might not be true, however, warned Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health in Boston.

“Other coronavirus infections may or may not be applicable because we haven’t seen what these coronaviruses can do to an elderly, naive person,” said Dr. Lipsitch. (Naive refers to an adult whose immune system has not been exposed to the virus.)