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Business

Twilight of Entrepreneurs in China as Extra Depart the Nation

BEIJING – Wealthy and powerful entrepreneurs in China were once idolized by the public, revered by the government and courted by foreign investors. They helped build the Chinese economy into a powerhouse, becoming the global face of Chinese business in a freer era, amassing billions of dollars in fortunes, buying villas abroad and holding court at elite international gatherings.

Now, billionaire tycoons are the underdogs in an increasingly state-run economy that prioritizes politics and national security over growth. As the government cracks down on businesses and the economy falters, they keep a low profile, stepping down from their businesses or leaving the country altogether.

In the latest exodus, two of China’s best-known entrepreneurs, Pan Shiyi and Zhang Xin, resigned as chairman and CEO, respectively, of their Soho China real estate empire this week. Both had relocated to the United States early in the pandemic and were trying to manage their business with late-night callbacks to China.

It’s been a tough year for your company. A deal to sell a majority stake to the Blackstone Group in New York fell through when regulators didn’t approve it. Soho China stock has lost more than half of its value over the past year.

“Highly successful entrepreneurs in the early 21st century generally have to ask themselves whether it’s in their best interest to keep running their businesses and stay in China,” said Michael Szonyi, former director of Harvard’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies University. “For these company founders, the writing is clearly on the wall.”

The husband-and-wife couple had embodied the broader rise of China’s economy from rags to riches. Mr. Pan was born into a poor family in Gansu Province, while Ms. Zhang worked in a garment factory in Hong Kong as a teenager.

They started their real estate business on the island of Hainan in China’s far south, a place that has a reputation, even by Chinese standards, for having experienced dizzying ups and downs in house prices. They then quickly focused on China’s largest cities, Beijing and Shanghai, building luxury apartment and retail complexes in some of the most expensive neighborhoods.

Many real estate developers built rectangular boxes with architectural palettes often limited to garish color choices for the glass and eccentric roofs in poor imitation of European mansions. Instead, Mr. Pan and Ms. Zhang enlisted star architects from the West like Zaha Hadid, a friend of Ms. Zhang’s, and created buildings with curved but minimalist façades.

Their resignations underscore growing concerns among private entrepreneurs that China is moving away from the free-wheeling capitalism pioneered by Deng Xiaoping and former Premier Zhu Rongji. Mr. Deng turned to entrepreneurs in the late 1970s to rebuild the economy after the devastation of Mao’s Cultural Revolution, and Mr. Zhu then ushered China into the World Trade Organization and to its role as the world’s largest exporter.

Xi Jinping, head of state since 2012, has instead led China towards a much more authoritarian, state-run society, where national security concerns increasingly take precedence over economic growth. Both business leaders and human rights activists who dared to publicly question Mr. Xi have been jailed as China tightened the reins on the private sector.

Very wealthy entrepreneurs used to be “able to operate as they wanted as long as they didn’t cross certain political boundaries, but those boundaries were fairly loose even during Xi Jinping’s first term in office,” which ended in 2017, said Victor Shih, a specialist in Chinese Economics and Politics from the University of California San Diego. “That has all changed. They’re not such stars anymore.”

Jack Ma, a co-founder of Alibaba who later led the company to dominance in China’s e-commerce sector, has resigned from top positions at the company. Colin Huang, founder of Pinduoduo, a rival of Alibaba, resigned as chairman early last year, less than a year after stepping down as chief executive.

A year ago, Zhang Yiming, founder of TikTok’s parent company ByteDance, said he would step down as CEO to focus on long-term strategy. And when Shanghai went into a two-month lockdown earlier this spring as part of China’s “zero Covid” strategy, Zhou Hang, another prominent tech entrepreneur and venture capitalist, left the city for Vancouver, British Columbia, where he had a strong case against she spelled out China’s current policy.

The problems in Soho China are piling up. The company announced on July 7 that police are investigating its chief financial officer over possible insider trading in Soho stock. Over the past year, Soho has been repeatedly accused of overcharging tenants for electricity and has been fined nearly $30 million.

The government’s efforts to stem a housing bubble, coupled with frequent lockdowns in Chinese cities as part of the country’s crackdown on the pandemic, have seen the entire property market stumble — and with it, the fortunes of Soho China. Soho China announced that the average occupancy rate of its investment properties in Beijing and Shanghai had fallen to 80 percent as of June 30.

updated

Aug 2022 7:04pm ET

Soho China and Ms. Zhang, who frequently speaks for the company, did not respond to calls and texts asking for comment. Two executives at the company, each with Soho for about two decades, Xu Jin and Qian Ting, have been promoted to co-chief executives, according to a filing with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday. A private equity manager, Huang Jingsheng, has been appointed non-executive chairman of the company.

Mr. Pan and Ms. Zhang will remain as executive directors at Soho, Soho China said in its filing, without specifying senior positions for them.

Her resignation comes as the Chinese Communist Party prepares to hold its national congress for the first time in five years, beginning Oct. 16. Congress is expected to give Mr Xi a third five-year term and possibly amend the party’s charter to further tighten its grip on the country’s private sector.

But China’s economy is on the wane and tensions with the United States are high. This combination has made it difficult for Mr. Xi to present himself to Congress as a successful leader.

“Here he is, six weeks before a convention, and things are tense, so that’s exactly what he didn’t want,” said Barry Naughton, a professor at the University of California, San Diego.

The troubles also make China a less attractive place for wealthy investors like Mr. Pan and Ms. Zhang to hold their money, he noted. “What a good time for her to step down.”

Over the past quarter century, Mr. Pan and Ms. Zhang had benefited from China’s rapid urbanization. When they founded Soho China in 1995, the country had 352 million urban residents — a number that had more than doubled by the last year. For many Chinese, housing has become the most important investment, accounting for two-thirds of household wealth.

The pair catered to China’s wealthiest elite with projects such as Galaxy Soho and Wangjing Soho in Beijing and Sky Soho in Shanghai, all designed by Zaha Hadid Architects. These ambitious projects were a symbol of the central role real estate plays in China’s economy, a sector that soon accounted for nearly a third of China’s total economic activity.

As Mr. Pan and Ms. Zhang’s wealth increased, so did their notoriety as the faces of a new generation of sophisticated, cosmopolitan Chinese business leaders. On his social media account Weibo, Mr. Pan has attracted more than 18 million followers and has used his influence for years to call for changes like cleaner air in Chinese cities. Ms. Zhang, who earned a master’s degree in economics from Cambridge and worked at Goldman Sachs early in her career, became a featured speaker at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

The couple’s penthouse duplex in Beijing has become one of China’s hottest lounges for dinner parties, drawing intellectuals, artists and government leaders from across the country and the world.

But China’s entrepreneurs have come under pressure as Mr Xi has continued his “shared prosperity” campaign for corporations and tycoons to share more wealth with their compatriots in a bid to reduce inequality. Mr. Xi has asserted the Communist Party’s control over the private sector and demanded political allegiance from corporations and businesspeople.

Ren Zhiqiang, another wealthy real estate developer and friend of Mr. Pan, was sentenced to 18 years in prison after criticizing Mr. Xi. Some entrepreneurs have been silenced on social media. While Mr. Pan and Ms. Zhang’s Weibo accounts are still active, they have rarely posted, sticking to mundane, boring topics.

“This is part of the development of the Communist Party,” said Drew Thompson, visiting scholar at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. “Private entrepreneurs — high-profile, wealthy people — are increasingly inconsistent with ‘common prosperity’ and the direction that Xi Jinping has taken.”

Li You contributed to the research.

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World News

Information exhibits China manufacturing unit exercise progress slowed in August

SINGAPORE – Asia Pacific stocks fell mainly in trading on Tuesday as August data showed slower growth in Chinese factory activity.

In mainland China, the Shanghai composite lost 0.75% while the Shenzhen stake lost 1.674%.

China’s factory activity grew more slowly in August compared to the previous month, data released on Tuesday showed. The official purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing was 50.1 in August compared to 50.4 in July.

PMI values ​​above 50 indicate expansion, while those below this value indicate contraction. The PMI readings are sequential and represent a monthly expansion or contraction.

Hong Kong-listed Tencent and Netease stocks fell amid regulatory concerns. They fell 3.18% and 3.46%, respectively, in the city by Tuesday afternoon. It came after new rules released Monday by China’s National Press and Publication Administration showed plans to limit the time people under the age of 18 spend playing video games to just three hours a week.

Hong Kong’s broader Hang Seng index fell 1.43%.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 was up 0.57% while the Topix index was up 0.32%. South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.61%.

Elsewhere in Australia, the S&P / ASX 200 climbed 0.38%.

MSCI’s broadest index for Asia Pacific stocks outside of Japan fell 0.46%.

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Overnight in the States, the S&P 500 rose 0.43% to 4,528.79 while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9% to 15,265.89. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, dropping 55.96 points to 35,399.84 points.

Currencies and oil

The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback versus a basket of its competitors, hit 92.573 after falling above 93.0 last week.

The Japanese yen was trading at 109.86 per dollar, weaker than yesterday against the greenback below 109.8. The Australian dollar was trading at $ 0.7304 and largely held gains after rising below $ 0.72 last week.

Oil prices were lower during Asian trading hours, with international benchmark Brent crude futures falling 0.4% to $ 73.12 a barrel. US crude oil futures declined 0.51% to $ 68.86 a barrel.

– CNBC’s Arjun Kharpal and Lauren Feiner contributed to this report.

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World News

VP Kamala Harris talks South China Sea in Vietnam amid U.S.-China rivalry

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris arrived in Hanoi, Vietnam on August 24, 2021. Harris is on an official trip to Southeast Asia to gather regional allies while the US’s global leadership status is being marred by the aftermath of the aftermath in Afghanistan.

Evelyn Hockstein | AFP | Getty Images

Strategic competition between the US and China came to the fore when Vice President Kamala Harris opened the second leg of her official visit to Southeast Asia in Vietnam.

Harris told Vietnamese officials in the capital Hanoi on Wednesday that it was necessary to pressure Beijing to take action in the South China Sea. Vietnam is a vocal opponent of China’s enormous territorial claims in the strategic waterway.

“We need to find ways to put pressure and increase pressure on Beijing to comply with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and challenge its bullying and excessive maritime claims,” ​​Harris said.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, or UNCLOS, is an international treaty that defines the rights and obligations of nations in space. It forms the basis of how international courts, such as the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, resolve maritime disputes.

Harris’ comment followed her speech in Singapore on Tuesday in which she said Beijing had continued to “force, intimidate and make claims on the vast majority of the South China Sea.”

The South China Sea is a resource-rich waterway that is a major merchant shipping route, carrying trillions of dollars of world trade every year. China claims almost all of the sea – parts of it have has also been claimed by some Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines.

In 2016, a tribunal at China’s Permanent Arbitration Court dismissed the lawsuit as legally unfounded – a ruling Beijing ignored.

In answer At Harris’ speech in Singapore, Chinese state media accused the American vice president of attempting to drive a “wedge” between China and its Southeast Asian neighbors.

Prior to arriving in Vietnam on Tuesday evening, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and the Chinese Ambassador to Vietnam held a previously unannounced meeting, Reuters reported. During the meeting, the Chinese ambassador pledged to donate two million doses of Covid-19 vaccine to Vietnam, according to the report.

“Biggest” geopolitical competition

While Harris was cautious about meeting Beijing, political analysts and former diplomats said there was little doubt their trip was part of US strategy to compete with China.

The rivalry between the US and China is currently the “biggest” geopolitical issue, said Kishore Mahbubani, a prominent former Singapore diplomat.

“So Vice President Kamala Harris’ visit is clearly part of the competition between the US and China,” Mahbubani, now a distinguished fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Asia Research Institute, told CNBC’s Street Signs Asia on Wednesday.

“Southeast Asia is going to be a very, very critical arena for this competition,” he said.

His opinion is shared by Curtis Chin, a former US ambassador to the Asian Development Bank. Chin said the rise of China was “a major foreign policy challenge” for the US and much of the world, even if the aftermath in Afghanistan continues.

The United States must have its eyes on Southeast Asia, and indeed much of Asia, not just the countries with which we have formal alliances.

Curtis Chin

Senior Fellow, Milken Institute

US President Joe Biden has been criticized for handling the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. The issue overshadowed Harris’ trip to Southeast Asia as reporters focused their questions on Afghanistan at the Vice President’s joint press conference with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Monday.

“The United States needs to have its eyes on Southeast Asia, and indeed much of Asia, not just the countries we have formal alliances with,” Chin, a senior fellow at the Milken Institute, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia on Wednesday.

“And when I say all things considered, it’s not just diplomatic and military engagements, but real business engagements – that is what the United States needs to focus on,” he added.

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In her talks with Singapore’s Prime Minister, Harris discussed issues ranging from supply chains to climate change and the pandemic.

It announced in Vietnam that the US will donate an additional one million doses of Pfizer’s Covid vaccine – bringing the total US donation to the Southeast Asian country to six million doses. Harris also opened the new Southeast Asia Regional Office of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Hanoi.

The Vice President is due to end her trip to Southeast Asia on Thursday.

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Politics

Biden to faucet Nicholas Burns ambassador to China, Rahm Emanuel to Japan

Nicholas Burns

Scott Mlyn | CNBC

WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden announced on Friday his intention to appoint a career diplomat and former US ambassador to NATO, Nicholas Burns, as his ambassador to China.

The president also announced that Rahm Emanuel, the former two-term mayor of Chicago, will be nominated as his ambassador to Japan.

Both announcements have been eagerly awaited, and once officially nominated, both Burns and Emanuel are expected to be ratified by the Senate.

Burns is one of America’s most skilled and respected diplomats, serving both Republicans and Democrats for more than 25 years. He was ambassador to Greece in the Clinton administration, ambassador to NATO in the George W. Bush administration and from 2005 to 2008 undersecretary of state for political affairs.

With the Biden administration making economic and geopolitical competition with China the cornerstone of its broader foreign policy, Burns would be the spearhead as ambassador.

He would likely undertake the double duty of implementing policies deeply unpopular with his Chinese hosts while maintaining a warm working relationship.

The White House has signaled that it will seek a relationship with Beijing that, in some ways, reflects Washington’s strategy towards the Kremlin.

While Russia and the United States are adversaries on almost all fronts, senior diplomats in both countries maintain specific areas of cooperation on issues where cooperation is in their mutual interest, such as nuclear arms control.

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Such a model could be applied to US-China relations, with collaboration on issues such as North Korea and climate change.

In contrast to Burns, Emanuel is neither a professional diplomat nor a Japan expert.

As former White House Chief of Staff to then President Barack Obama and previously an Illinois Congressman, Emanuel has close ties with several of the top figures in the Biden White House, including current White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain.

However, within the broader Democratic Party, Emanuel is a polarizing figure.

As a centrist on issues such as immigration and health care, Emanuel has drawn the wrath of progressives in Congress since the early days of the Obama administration.

But it was his time as Mayor of Chicago that nearly ruined any chance Emanuel had to join the Biden administration.

As mayor, Emanuel has been heavily criticized for refusing to post police dashcam footage for more than a year after the 2014 shooting of Laquan McDonald, a black teenager who was shot 16 times by a police officer who alleged , McDonald pounced on him.

The footage of that shooting showed that McDonald was actually turned away by the policeman when the policeman shot him. McDonald collapsed on the first shot, but the officer didn’t stop; he fired another 15 shots at McDonald while the teenager was on the ground.

Emanuel claimed he never saw the video, which clearly showed the Chicago police’s version of the events was a lie.

Emails later revealed that Emanuel’s closest mayor’s aide knew early on that the police story did not match the footage.

Emanuel’s nomination as Biden’s ambassador to Japan is a blow to the progressives who fought against him.

But as with any ambassador, it is Emanuel’s personal friendship with Biden and other senior White House officials that is most important to the Japanese government.

In this regard, Tokyo is no different from any other foreign capital: a US ambassador is only as good as the time it takes to get the president on the phone.

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World News

Chinese language shares fall round 1%; China holds regular on benchmark lending price

SINGAPORE – Asia Pacific stocks fell mainly in Friday trading as China left its policy rate unchanged.

Mainland stocks fell as the Shanghai Composite fell about 1% and the Shenzhen stake fell 1.013%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 1.18%.

China’s one-year policy rate (LPR) and five-year LPR were both left unchanged on Friday at 3.85% and 4.65%, respectively. According to Reuters, this was in line with the expectations of the majority of traders and analysts in a quick poll.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.74% in morning trading while the Topix index lost 0.5%.

Japanese automaker stocks continued to decline on Friday, with Toyota Motor falling 2.14% during the month
Nissan Motor lost 5.69% and Honda Motor lost 3.63%.

That came after Toyota announced Thursday that it would cut global production for September by 40% from its previous plan, Reuters reported. Toyota’s shares plunged more than 4% Thursday after the Nikkei first reported the company’s plan.

Elsewhere, the South Korean Kospi lost 0.84% ​​while the S & P / ASX 200 in Australia climbed 0.2%.

MSCI’s broadest index for Asia Pacific stocks outside of Japan was trading 0.73% lower.

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Overnight in the States, the S&P 500 was up 0.13% to 4,405.80 while the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.11% to 14,541.79. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, shedding 66.57 points to 34,894.12.

Currencies

The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback versus a basket of its competitors, hit 93.521 after rising below 93 earlier this week.

The Japanese yen was trading at 109.76 per dollar, up against the greenback above 110 yesterday. The Australian dollar changed hands at $ 0.7141 after falling above $ 0.728 earlier in the week.

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Health

Map reveals newest outbreak in mainland China as delta instances rise

In recent weeks, new pockets of Covid-19 cases have surfaced in parts of mainland China as the highly contagious Delta variant spreads across the country.

So far this month, locally transmitted cases reported in mainland China have risen to 878 – more than double the 390 cases recorded for the entire month of July, according to the CNBC daily statistics from China’s National Health Commission.

To be clear, the number of reported infections is much lower in China than many countries – including the US, where an average of about 100,000 new cases a day, and Southeast Asia, where daily cases have risen sharply.

Still, Chinese authorities have imposed targeted bans, tightened movement controls and ordered mass tests to curb the recent resurgence in Covid cases.

Impact on China’s Economy

Economists have raised concerns about China’s zero tolerance for Covid. The government has insisted on stamping out any flare-ups in Covid cases, even as many countries around the world – including the UK and Singapore – have started to accept that the virus will never go away.

The recent resurgence of Covid cases in China is due to the fact that some economic growth engines continue to lose momentum while domestic consumption struggles to fully recover, HSBC economists said in a report on Wednesday.

The economists found that the number of new infections reported in China is the highest since an outbreak in northern China in December 2020.

“As a result, many provinces and cities have tightened social distancing restrictions and bans on travel between cities and provinces,” the report said.

“These measures will inevitably weigh on growth, especially domestic consumption, which has not yet seen a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels,” the analysts said.

HSBC said mounting economic pressures could lead Beijing to adopt “more supportive” fiscal policies. This could include major infrastructure spending and tax cuts for small and medium-sized businesses, the bank said.

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World News

China partially shuts down port after one Covid case

Heavy cranes in the port of Ningbo in China.

Philippfotograf | iStock | Getty Images

China closed a key terminal in its port of Ningbo-Zhoushan, the world’s third largest port, after a worker was discovered to be infected with Covid – a move that is likely to put further pressure on already congested utility networks.

It was the second time this year that the country ceased operations at one of its major ports.

Analysts say China’s “zero tolerance” approach to Covid will tighten already stressed supply chains this year. Some warn that this may not be the last port closure as long as Beijing takes this stance.

Dawn Tiura, CEO of the Sourcing Industry Group – an association for the procurement and procurement industry, said China’s stance will lead to “serious” ramifications for the supply chain.

“China has zero tolerance for COVID. One person who tests positive is enough to close (the) port, ”she told CNBC in an email.

Ningbo-Zhoushan is the third largest container volume in the world. According to the World Shipping Council, 27.49 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEU) of container handling were handled in 2019. The container volume rose in 2020 by almost 5% to 28.72 million TEU.

As long as the authorities adhere to this “zero covid” stance, there is still a risk of sudden disruptions due to tests or bans …

Nick Marro

Economist Intelligence Unit

All incoming and outgoing services at the Meishan Terminal at the port of Zhoushan were suspended until further notice on Wednesday, according to Chinese state media. The terminal is the key to processing shipments to Europe and North America.

The supply chains have already been severely disrupted this year by crises such as the shortage of shipping containers and the incident in the Suez Canal. In June, Covid infections sparked disruption at shipping hubs in southern China, including major ports in Shenzhen and Guangzhou – the first time China has shut down ports due to Covid cases.

Effects of China’s “zero covid” stance

China’s zero tolerance for Covid suggests this latest port disruption may not be the last, said Nick Marro, head of global trade at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

“China’s ‘zero-covid’ approach means officials will prioritize containment of the pandemic above all else, especially given the highly contagious nature of the Delta tribe and the risks the current outbreak poses to future economic performance in the third quarter “He said in a note on Wednesday.

“As long as the authorities maintain this ‘zero covid’ stance, there is still a risk of sudden interference from tests or bans, which ties all hopes of normalcy closely to factors such as national vaccination deadlines,” he added.

China is experiencing a resurgence of Covid cases due to the highly transferable Delta variant. The daily cases exceeded the 140 mark on Monday – the highest number of daily infections since January, according to Reuters. The Chinese authorities have ordered mass tests in some areas and wide-ranging restrictions on movement in major cities such as Beijing.

The suspension of services at the Meishan Terminal comes as container shipping rates continue to rise this year. The container freight rates from China and East Asia to the west coast of North America have risen by over 270% to over 15,800 USD per TEU this year, according to the global container freight index from Freightos Baltic. Meanwhile, rates on the east coast have risen by over 220% to over USD 17,500 per TEU, according to the index.

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Analysts warn of further delays and consumers will likely have to bear the cost as the holiday season approaches.

Tiura pointed out that the June Covid outbreak caused Shenzhen’s main Yantian terminal to cut 70% of its exports. The waiting time for processing shipments has been tripled from 3 days to 8 or 9 days.

Given that Ningbo-Zhoushan is the third largest container port in the world, this closure makes the already dire situation much worse.

Dawn Tiura

CEO, Sourcing Industry Group

“If we see something similar here, and the time it takes to move ships through port doubles or triples, we will have a significant and long-term impact on exports that will impact the holiday season and drive inflation,” she said.

“The shortage of containers was already affecting global supply chains. Given that Ningbo-Zhoushan is the third largest container port in the world, this closure will make an already dire situation much worse, ”said Tiura.

She said container capacity is likely to become more expensive and shippers are likely to pass the cost on to consumers, further fueling global inflation ahead of the all-important holiday season.

Mario Ciabarra, CEO of digital analytics company Quantum Metric, said retailers will face a lot of uncertainty before the holiday season and one of them will be inventory challenges.

“Inventories will be the primary concern of retailers as they face the decision to either have limited or no stocks of certain items, or instead face higher costs associated with air freight,” he told CNBC.

Marro from the EIU also pointed out disruptions that are exacerbated by the key demand before the Christmas season.

“Trade disruptions pose problems not only to shipping and consumers, but also to manufacturers who rely on critical import components,” he said.

– CNBC’s Iris Wang contributed to this report.

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Health

David Roche on China Covid outbreak hitting progress, markets

Medical personnel work on the sixth round of covid-19 test since late July in Nanjing in east China’s Jiangsu province on Sunday, August 08, 2021.

Feature China | Barcroft Media | Getty Images

China has tightened Covid-19 measures to combat an uptick in daily cases — a move that could hold back the country’s economic growth and hit its stock markets, said veteran strategist David Roche.

Investor sentiment toward Chinese stocks has been dampened by Beijing’s regulatory crackdown on sectors including technology and after-school tutoring.

“Markets have got into the mode of thinking Covid is very … bad, but economic recovery (is) taking away lockdowns, removing social restrictions — that’s kind of the world recipe at the moment,” Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Tuesday.

“Well it’s very much not the world recipe in China for good reasons, and therefore markets have to come to terms with the fact that there are economic costs not only within China, but globally as a result of this,” he added.

I think China is in the process of exiting its big recovery story from Covid …

David Roche

president and global strategist, Independent Strategy

The country’s National Health Commission reported 143 new Covid cases in mainland China on Monday — the highest number of daily infections since January, according to Reuters. Chinese state media attributed the latest resurgence in infections to the highly transmissible delta variant.

Chinese authorities last week ordered mass testing in Wuhan city — where the coronavirus was first detected — and imposed widespread movement restrictions in major cities including Beijing.

Some economists have raised concerns about China’s “zero tolerance” approach to Covid, which refers to the country’s aggressive clampdown on any flare-ups in Covid cases. The approach, which includes strict lockdowns and mass testing, helped China keep previous outbreaks under control before the latest resurgence.

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But the delta variant is more contagious and could be more difficult to contain — and that could hurt economic recovery in China, economists have warned.

“If lockdowns and vaccination progress do not allow local economies to reopen by mid-August or early September we will need to revisit our 8.8% 2021 GDP forecast,” economists from Australian bank ANZ wrote in a Tuesday report.

China effect on the global economy

Any disruptions in the Chinese economy could affect global economic growth, said Roche.

The strategist explained that broader lockdowns across China could interrupt global supply chains – much of which are located in the country.

That could hit international trade, increase the costs of some goods, and raise inflation expectations around the world, he added.

Roche expects China’s year-on-year growth in the third quarter to slow to between 2% and 3% from the second quarter’s 7.9% expansion.

Over the longer term, China’s economic growth will settle at around 5% to 6%, according to Roche.

“I think China is in the process of exiting its big recovery story from Covid, which of course is ahead of the world … and is now converging with a long-term growth trajectory which is much, much lower than what people became used to in China,” he said.

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Politics

Biden blocks elimination of Hong Kong residents, cites China repression

United States President Joe Biden delivers a speech in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC on July 29, 2021.

Anna Money Maker | Getty Images

President Joe Biden signed an order on Wednesday blocking the forced deportation of many Hong Kong residents from the United States for 18 months and giving them a “temporary safe haven” from ongoing Chinese repression in the region, the White House said.

The order allows Hong Kong residents whose U.S. visas have expired and who are otherwise legally removable to remain in the United States.

Biden on Wednesday also directed the Department of Homeland Security to legally work in the United States for Hong Kong residents subject to the order.

“With politically motivated arrests and trials, media silence, and the shrinking space for elections and democratic opposition, we will continue to take steps to support the people of Hong Kong,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a written statement.

The order imposing memorandum signed by Biden also states that China has undermined “the enjoyment of rights and freedoms” in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, including those protected by the so-called Basic Law and the Sino-British Joint Declaration.

Since June 2020, when China unilaterally imposed its national security law on Hong Kong, police in the semi-autonomous region have detained at least 100 opposition politicians, activists and protesters on charges under the law, the memo said.

In addition, police arrested more than 10,000 people in connection with protests against the government.

China’s action came in response to the anti-government protests that began in Hong Kong in 2019.

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“There are compelling foreign policy reasons to postpone the forced exit of Hong Kong residents currently in the United States,” the memo said.

“The United States is committed to a foreign policy that combines our democratic values ​​with our foreign policy goals that focus on defending democracy and promoting human rights around the world,” the memo reads.

“Providing a safe haven for Hong Kong residents who have been deprived of their guaranteed freedoms in Hong Kong promotes US interests in the region.”

Biden’s order applies to Hong Kong residents currently in the United States, with certain exceptions.

These exceptions include those who cannot be admitted or deported to the United States under immigration law, those convicted of one or more offenses in the United States, and those whose presence is not in the interests of the United States

Senator Ben Sasse, the Republican from Nebraska who tabled a bill last year that automatically grants asylum to Hong Kong residents in the US, said Biden’s order was “a solid step, but we need to go further.”

“We must offer full asylum to Hong Kong people who are fleeing the brutal repression of Chairman Xi,” said Sasse, referring to the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jingping.

“America must stand firmly behind the victims of communism and show the world that we will always stand up for freedom around the world.”

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Health

China orders Wuhan mass testing, Beijing restrictions as Covid delta spreads

Residents of Wuhan city in China’s Hubei province queue to take nucleic acid tests for Covid-19 on August 3, 2021.

STR | AFP | Getty Images

China is facing pockets of resurgence in major cities from Beijing to Wuhan, and authorities have imposed mass testing and widespread travel restrictions in some areas.

Daily Covid-19 cases are rising again as the delta variant spreads across the country.

China’s National Health Commission said it confirmed 96 Covid cases on Wednesday — the third straight day it reported 90 cases and above. Of the newly confirmed cases, 71 were locally transmitted, said the health commission.

Economists are concerned that a strict government clampdown on movements could hurt the economy — the only major economy to grow last year.

“China has shown before that it is willing to take tough action to control Covid, and we don’t doubt that it will do so again this time,” Robert Carnell, regional head of Asia-Pacific research at Dutch bank ING, said in a note on Wednesday.

“Tough restrictions on movement and travel already in place will likely bring the desired results. But the delta variant is a particularly slippery little critter, and the concern for us, and we imagine, many others, is how quickly this will occur, and at what economic cost in the meantime,” he added.

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When Covid-19 first emerged in the country in late 2019, authorities used strict lockdowns and mass testing to control the nationwide outbreak.

Since then, Chinese authorities have clamped down hard on any flare-ups in Covid infections. The latest spread of the more transmissible Covid delta variant has again led authorities to tighten containment measures across the country.

State media Xinhua News Agency reported that authorities have urged people to limit travel and avoid gatherings, as well as suspended some flights, trains and long-distance bus services.

The capital of Beijing imposed strict entry and exit controls on Sunday and is said to be at a “critical stage” of epidemic control after cases rose late July for the first time in months, Xinhua reported.

Wuhan city, where the coronavirus first emerged, will test all its residents for Covid new cases emerged, the news agency said.

As of July 20, more than 17 million doses of Covid vaccines have been administered in Wuhan, and the vaccination rate of those 18 years and above hit 77.63%, according to the Wuhan municipal health commission.

‘Slow patch’ in China’s economy

China’s economic recovery has been uneven, with exports-oriented sectors driving most of the growth while domestic consumption has been slower to return.  

The resurgence in Covid-19 infections and the latest containment measures would delay a recovery in Chinese household spending, said Sian Fenner, lead Asia economist at consultancy Oxford Economics.

“The geographical spread of the delta variant is going to be concerning the Chinese authorities. We’ve already seen that they have a very low tolerance towards, you know, even a relatively small flare up,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday.

“We had hoped that with the increase in vaccination rates, that would actually improve that service consumption, but it looks like we’re in for another sort of slow patch going forward and … the delayed recovery in household spending,” she added.

Fenner said she’s maintaining her full-year growth forecast of 8.4% for China for now. That’s slightly higher than the International Monetary Fund’s projected growth of 8.1% in China.

— CNBC’s Weizhen Tan contributed to this report.