Categories
Business

United will purchase 15 ultrafast airplanes from start-up Growth Supersonic

United Airlines plans to transform the friendly sky into ultra-fast sky with supersonic jets.

The airline announced Thursday that it is buying 15 aircraft from Boom Supersonic with the option to buy 35 more at some point.

Boom’s first commercial supersonic jet, the Overture, has not yet been built or certified. It aims to launch passenger service in 2029 with an aircraft that could fly at Mach 1.7 and cut some flight times in half. This means that a flight from New York to London, which normally takes seven hours, would only take 3½ hours.

A rendering of a United Supersonic Jet

Source: United Airlines

“Boom’s vision for the future of commercial aviation, combined with the world’s strongest network in the industry, will give business and leisure travelers access to a great flying experience,” said Scott Kirby, United CEO, in a press release announcing the deal.

Although the terms of sale were not disclosed, the companies anticipate that the transaction will bring immediate benefits.

Since its inception in 2014, Denver-based Boom Supersonic has raised $ 270 million in capital and grown to 150 employees. For founder and CEO Blake Scholl, winning a firm contract with an old airline confirms his vision of bringing back supersonic flights.

The supersonic Concorde flew commercial flights from 1976 to October 2003.

“The world’s first purchase agreement for carbon-free supersonic aircraft is an important step towards our mission to create a more accessible world,” said Scholl in a statement.

For United, ordering boom supersonic jets fits in with the strategy Kirby has outlined since he took office a year ago.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby

Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images

Kirby is aggressively trying to develop opportunities for the airline. Earlier this year, United acquired a stake in eVTOL start-up Archer Aviation and worked with Mesa Airlines to order 200 short-haul electric aircraft. It did so after United announced a multi-million dollar investment in a carbon capture startup and pledged to be carbon neutral by 2050.

Part of what made buying supersonic jets attractive to United is Boom’s plan to power the planes with engines that run on sustainable aviation fuel.

A rendering of a United Supersonic Jet

Source: United Airlines

However, it remains to be seen whether Boom’s plan to bring back supersonic airliners will get underway.

The company plans to make its maiden flight with a demonstrator jet called the XB-1 later this year. If things go as planned, Boom will start producing the overture in 2023 and make its maiden flight in 2026. The ultimate hurdle will be certification from regulatory agencies, including the Federal Aviation Administration.

In this case, United expects to target long-haul international flights between major cities around the world such as San Francisco to Tokyo and New York to Paris.

Mike Leskinen, United’s vice president of corporate development, said the overture could dramatically change some of the airline’s busiest international routes. “If we can cut the time it takes to fly from the US east coast to certain cities in Europe and do it with lower emissions, we think it will be very attractive,” he said.

Categories
World News

Sri Lanka’s Zoo Animals Are Having a Pandemic Child Growth

COLOMBO, Sri Lanka – To prevent the worst of the devastation from Covid, Sri Lanka imposed lockdowns and suspended flights from overseas for almost a year, weakening the economy and drying up a vital tourism industry.

However, it was a fun time for animals in the island nation’s zoos.

Given the absence of visitors, animal births at zoos rose 25 percent last year, according to Ishini Wickremesinghe, director general of the Sri Lankan Department of National Zoological Gardens. Particularly noticeable, she said, was that several animals were born that have no breeding history in local zoos.

“Animals actually have a less stressful and relaxed time without people,” she said.

Sri Lanka closed its zoos in March 2020 and briefly reopened them to visitors earlier this year before closing again as coronavirus infections rose. The animals bred for the first time include a black swan, a white peacock and a Nilgai, the largest antelope in Asia. Others who have produced offspring include an Arabian oryx, a black duck, a scimitar-horned oryx, and a zebra.

“We also have three new lion cubs,” said Ms. Wickremesinghe. “After years, the animals really got a good break.”

The boys are now about six months old. With no visitors nearby, adult lions can roam freely in their enclosures and group together with potential companions.

In Sri Lanka’s wildlife parks, officials have not been able to confirm whether the brood is increasing, but the animals are “definitely stress-free,” said Manoj Vidyaratne, the overseer of Yala National Park on the island’s southeast coast. “We usually see around 400 vehicles in the park every day,” he said, “but this time nobody is there.”

Creatures in captivity elsewhere have also taken advantage of the pandemic to reproduce. Last April, two giant pandas successfully mated at the Hong Kong Zoo, which was closed to visitors due to the coronavirus.

Sri Lanka, an early success story in containing the spread of the virus, has seen a surge recently, registering nearly 3,000 new infections daily, according to a New York Times database. The pandemic has exacerbated the economic hardship of a country that struggled to recover from the terrorist attacks as early as 2019.

Sri Lanka’s zoos, which are home to around 4,000 species of animals, are among the main attractions of the tourism-dependent country, drawing more than three million visitors a year before the pandemic.

Despite the impact on revenue, Ms. Wickremesinghe said she hoped to keep the zoos closed until cases fell amid fears that primates could catch Covid-19 from an infected visitor. “We don’t know what to do when that happens,” she said.

Categories
Health

Psychedelic drug increase in psychological well being remedy nears actuality

Magic mushrooms are seen in a grow room in the Netherlands in this 2007 file photo.

Peter Dejong | AP

Entrepreneur Dick Simon has never shied away from speaking up about business topics other CEOs might find too stigmatized to touch. He has spent years dedicated to improving U.S. business relations with Iran, and more recently, the Boston-based CEO has embraced another passion: improving the market for and medical community’s understanding of how psychedelic drugs can be used to treat mental illness. It’s a health, and emerging health business, that Simon came to appreciate through the firsthand frustration of watching people in his life suffering — not just from mental illness, but from the failure of existing and costly medical treatments.

Drugs long stigmatized, such as psilocybin and MDMA, are rising in profile as mental illness treatment options. Just last week, results from a phase 3 trial of MDMA combined with talk therapy for post-traumatic stress disorder showed results that were impressive.

“This is a pivotal event,” said Elemer Piros, a biotech analyst at Roth Capital Partners who covers the emerging alternative mental health treatment space. “It may not seem humongous, but it is one of the best and most rigorously executed trials in the space. And the results corroborate what we have seen time and time again from smaller studies over the past two decades,” he said, referencing remission rates double that of a placebo. “The magical experiences kept showing up, but no one had the courage to take it through to regulators.”

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The results of the MDMA study, whose senior author is Rick Doblin, Ph.D., founder and executive director of the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies (MAPS), are expected to be published in Nature Medicine on Monday and FDA approval could come by 2023, according to a New York Times report.

A recent Imperial College London study of psilocybin use in depression reported in The New England Journal of Medicine also produced positive results. Before the end of the year, clinical results also are expected from a study involving Compass Pathways — which IPO’d late last year — using its approach of guided psilocybin experiences as a treatment for drug-resistant depression.

“People still believe that ‘your brain on drugs’ commercial is the truth rather than all scientific evidence on major therapeutic benefits,” said Simon, who heads the Psychedelic Medicines for Mental Health Group at entrepreneurial network YPO and also serves on an advisory council at Mass General Hospital on the topic. (Dr. Sharmin Ghaznavi, Mass General Hospital Assoc. Director, Center for the Neuroscience of Psychedelics, will speak at the CNBC Healthy Returns Summit on Tuesday, May 11.)

A focus on depression treatment outcomes

There are example of stigmatized drugs in FDA-approved medical usage, ketamine, for example, as an anesthesia since the 1970s, and ultimately, used on an “off-label” basis to treat depression based on the existing FDA authorization. In 2019, a Johnson & Johnson ketamine-derived treatment for drug-resistant depression was the first new approach for the mental health condition specifically approved by the FDA in decades.

The current treatment approach of helping people to live with depression and PTSD, and on medication, creates a patient population and cost factor that is a burden on the health-care system. That may ultimately help the new drug companies gain acceptance if the clinical trials results continue to be positive.

A close friend of Simon’s almost lost a child suffering from mental illness. The individual was looking at a prognosis of never going back to school, never being able to work, at best not being a danger to themselves with medication. “That was not a prognosis you want for a 20-year-old,” he said. “They had tried everything, and eventually out of complete desperation, they started learning about the potential for psychedelic-assisted therapies, and it worked,” he told CNBC in an interview conducted late last year.

Now, he says, that person is off medication, in a relationship and leading a normal professional life.

Mental illness is among the most costly medical expenses in the U.S., and it has a high cost to employers in lost productivity. In 2019, 51.5 million adults were living with a mental illness in the U.S., and the number of people suffering and drug costs, already in the tens of billions of dollars annually, are projected to grow in the years ahead, with Covid-19 compounding mental health issues globally.

Roughly 7% of Americans suffer depressive episodes annually, and roughly 1% are resistant to treatment, the latter associated with a significantly higher economic burden including hospitalization. Americans who suffer depressive episodes have additional bouts within 2-5 years at a rate exceeding 40%, according to a recent Cowen & Company research report on Compass Pathways, and that risk increases with each new depressive episode.

“Covid has done a lot of terrible things, but it has elevated mental health visibility, and as a result of that there is lots of interest,” Simon said.

Public vs. professional acceptance of illegal drugs

Denver became the first city in the U.S. to decriminalize psychedelic mushrooms in 2019, and in a 2020 ballot measure, voters in Oregon made it the first state to decriminalize mushrooms and legalize them for treatment purposes. But investors behind the new drug treatment approaches are not focused on public acceptance, the trend of microdosing (for which they say data remains slim) or consumer recreational market potential, though many do find ideas about these drugs to be outdated.

“Consciousness is not the key here,” Simon said. “For purely medical use, there is a tremendous amount of data and traction for expanding use, which is where I’m focused.”

One of the biggest investors in the emerging field is Atai Life Sciences, a holding company for multiple biotech start-ups pursuing alternative treatments for depression, anxiety and addiction based on stigmatized drugs, and backed by venture capitalist Peter Thiel. It recently filed for an IPO.

Atai’s chairman Christian Angermayer — who says he has never touched a beer even though he comes from Bavaria where it is “our daily nutrition,” or smoked a joint or cigarette — is a personal believer in the power of psychedelics to have a positive influence on life. He described his first experience with psychedelics as “the single most meaningful thing” in his life.

“Nothing else even comes close,” Angermayer told CNBC in an interview conducted late last year.

But his personal experience is distinct from his role as an investor and executive focused on the mental health market needs. Angermayer was an early investor in Compass Pathways, where one of the founders, Lars Christian Wilde, suffered from drug-resistant depression and found help in psychedelics.

“We want to bring it back to the legal realm, but in the shamanistic setting of today, and that is with a therapist. We want to make it legal, but solely for doctors or psychotherapists in a clinical setting,” said Angermayer, who will speak at CNBC Healthy Returns on Tuesday. “These are not drugs you can take alone and not everyone can afford to go to the Amazon and see a shaman. We need to bring it into the medical system.”

Investment risks

A common thread among those closely watching, and investing in this space, is the personal experience with family and friends suffering from mental illness and struggling to find a successful medical treatment. “These people have been suffering for decades,” said Piros, who has a family member now struggling with depression and who has not yet found an effective medical therapy.

The new companies come with a high level of investment risk, common in the biotech space, with early trials showing promise but the business generating no revenue today. Advocates and investors in these alternative drug treatments say the economic argument is compelling when compared to current options.

Piros, who has spent more than two decades analyzing biotech companies, says investors need to be mindful that when you get involved with a development stage company it is not about the money being made already, but factors including how long the companies will have IP protection, when they can be expected to enter the market, and potential cash flows over a period between a decade to 15 years.

I’m not a medical professional or a researcher, but as a CEO and entrepreneur, I’m someone who is used to making things happen.

Dick Simon, heads the Psychedelic Medicines for Mental Health Group at entrepreneurial network YPO

Unlike biotechs working with brand new compounds which have a failure rate as high as 90%, the trials using psychedelic drugs that have been studied for decades are less likely to result in outright failures. Still, Piros said that the proper way to think about this new theme is as part of an existing investment risk tolerance for the biotech sector, and these new drugs should be no more than 10% of that existing allocation.

“It’s not chronic medicine, which as a business model is reasonably predictable and a great business model. It remains to be seen how this business model works, but … if we only need treatment for depression twice a year to be in remission that is a thousand times better than anything we can offer today, and PTSD has no approved drug,” Piros said. “It’s not like a crapshoot anymore.”

If a company like Compass makes it to market, its treatment approach could reach millions of Americans — estimates range from roughly 2 million to 4 million — not being served well by the current class of depression drugs. Pricing of the treatment could be $10,000, according to Cowen estimates, or as high as a $20,000, according to Piros, which he said is closer to the cost of current treatments. Depending on the number of patients who are resistant to current drugs that the therapy reaches, a 5%-7% market share could be worth billions. According to a Cowen estimate, $1 billion in annual sales; according to Berenberg Capital Markets, more than $2.5 billion; and according to Piros, possibly as much as $5 billion for a new, successful entrant at peak.

“We don’t expect 5% penetration two years after launch, more like five to seven years after launch, and going beyond 5% is crazy. But that is still a very large chunk of value,” Piros said. “We don’t need to go to the consumer angle.”

Many factors would influence the overall size of the market, from patients who are designated as good candidates for the new treatments, to the number of treatments needed, the infrastructure required for the guided sessions, which need to be in controlled environments like existing treatment centers that currently administer ketamine, and physician acceptance. Compass is creating 100 centers to train medical professionals and offer guided therapy, and plans to grow to 3,800 centers in a peak year.

Medical resistance

Getting the medical establishment to embrace these treatments may be among the most difficult parts of the journey. Piros said he has discussed alternative treatments with psychiatrists on behalf of his family, but they told him they would not be interested until there are decades of placebo-controlled trial data behind the drugs. “These were young doctors, fully up to date on the latest trials and literature. It’s going to be a long road before full acceptance.”

Cowen expects the existing anti-depression drugs in the SSRI (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor) class, which account for upwards of 75% of prescriptions, to remain the first line of choice in therapy, but its analysts also wrote in a recent report that surveying and interviews it has conducted with doctors indicate roughly 30% of patients are resistant to these drugs and as many as 1 in 4 patients might be considered for new treatment alternatives.

The executives in the field know the history, and even with seven decades of research into use of psychedelics culminating in the latest, more rigorous work, they expect continued resistance. But they are determined, and now with a growing body of clinical trial data to back up psychedelics.

“There are those who have been out there in the wilderness metaphorically, major institutions carrying on research over the last decade. How do I help them get past the stigma society still has around this work?” Simon asked. “How do you get veterans groups who don’t like the fact that 22 veterans a day commit suicide, and each year more die in suicide than in all wars since 9/11, how do you engage them, across the political spectrum? I’m not a medical professional or researcher, but as a CEO and entrepreneur, I’m someone who is used to making things happen.”

After his initial psychedelic trip, Angermayer said the first thought he had was that he needed to call his parents and tell them how much he loved them. The second thought: “This must be legal as a treatment. … We’re several years away. It’s not tomorrow, but it’s not in ten years,” he said. 

If you are having thoughts of suicide, call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 1-800-273-8255 (TALK) or go to SpeakingOfSuicide.com/resources for a list of additional resources.

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Categories
Entertainment

‘I Want I Acquired Pregnant in March!’ Contained in the Dance Child Increase.

Zu Beginn der Pandemie gab ihr eine ehemalige Tanzlehrerin von Megan Fairchild einige Ratschläge: Jetzt wäre ein wirklich guter Zeitpunkt, um schwanger zu werden. Fairchild, Direktor des New Yorker Balletts, war entsetzt.

“Ich dachte, das ist eine lächerliche Idee und das Letzte, was mir gerade in den Sinn kommt”, sagte sie. “Das wird ein paar Monate dauern, und ich möchte nicht da sein, wenn wir zurück sind.”

Aber als aus Tagen Wochen und Monate wurden, begann sie eine andere Emotion zu erleben: Wut. Es war klar, dass ihre Art von Live-Performance, die im Lincoln Center für Tausende tanzte, nicht so bald wieder aufgenommen werden würde. Fairchild, ein Planer, wollte ihrer kleinen Tochter immer ein Geschwisterchen geben, damit sie eine Beziehung wie zu ihrem Tänzer-Bruder Robbie Fairchild erleben konnte.

Sie hat nachgerechnet. Die Pandemiepause und eine weitere Schwangerschaft würden sich, wenn sie sich nicht überschneiden würden, auf zweieinhalb Jahre außerhalb der Bühne summieren. “Es hat mich sehr wütend gemacht, dass ich ein ganzes Jahr von meiner Karriere – meiner kurzen Karriere bereits – als Frau in der Elternsituation frei nehmen muss, um ein Kind auf die Welt zu bringen.”

Während eines Großteils des Pandemiejahres war Fairchild, 36, schwanger – mit Zwillingen. (Am 10. April brachte sie zwei Mädchen zur Welt.) Die Entscheidung, ein weiteres Kind zu bekommen, kam in drei Worten zu ihr, als sie meditierte: Tu es jetzt. “Ich dachte nicht, dass ich bereit wäre”, sagte sie, “aber die Idee, es jetzt zu tun, löste irgendwie alle meine Probleme.”

Jetzt ist Fairchild irritiert, dass sie so viel Zeit verschwendet hat. “Ich wünschte, ich wäre im März schwanger geworden!” Sie sagte.

Sie ist nicht die einzige, die die Abschaltung des Theaters ausgenutzt hat. Die Tanzwelt erlebt einen ausgewachsenen Babyboom. “Dies war nur etwas, um uns zu erheben und uns neue Energie zu geben”, sagte Brittany Pollack, 32, eine Solistin des Stadtballetts, die im September mit ihrem Ehemann Jonathan Stafford, dem künstlerischen Leiter des Unternehmens, ein Mädchen erwartet.

Eine Tanzkarriere ist relativ kurz, ebenso wie das Fenster für einen Tänzer, um ein Kind zu bekommen. Es passiert normalerweise später in einer Karriere, wenn bereits Bühnenkredite oder Zeit bei einem Unternehmen festgelegt sind. Während der Babyboom ein freudiges Ergebnis einer schrecklichen Situation ist, bringt er auch den wirklichen Kampf ans Licht, mit dem viele Tänzer, insbesondere Frauen, konfrontiert sind, wenn sie entscheiden, ob und wann sie eine Familie gründen wollen.

“Es ist wie das Ende der Welt”, sagte Heather Lang, ein Darsteller von “Jagged Little Pill”. “Hier, hier ist deine Chance.”

Die Pandemie hat Tänzern, darunter Lang, die während des Herunterfahrens ihr zweites Kind hatte, etwas Seltenes geboten: Zeit – von der Aufführung weg zu sein und dann wieder in Tanzform zu kommen. “Ich muss kein weiteres Jahr des Nachdenkens opfern, sollte ich jetzt aufhören?” sagte Erica Pereira, eine Solistin beim City Ballet, die derzeit schwanger ist. „Soll ich das Baby haben? Es ist wie ein Segen in Verkleidung. “

Die Liste der neuen und werdenden Mütter bestätigt dies: In den letzten Wochen hat Ingrid Silva vom Dance Theatre of Harlem; Teresa Reichlen vom Stadtballett; und Stephanie Williams und Zhong-Jing Fang vom American Ballet Theatre haben Babys bekommen. Lauren Post vom Ballet Theatre, die eine kleine Tochter hat, ist schwanger mit einem Jungen.

Justin Peck, der ansässige Choreograf und künstlerische Berater des City Ballet, und seine Frau, die Tänzerin Patricia Delgado, begrüßten am 29. März eine Tochter. (Und das Phänomen geht über New York hinaus; das Royal Ballet in London hat auch einen Babyboom erlebt. )

Neben Lang haben in den letzten Monaten mehrere Broadway-Tänzer Kinder bekommen: Ashley Blair Fitzgerald („The Cher Show“), Khori Petinaud („Moulin Rouge! The Musical“) und Lauren Yalango-Grant, die mit 34 Wochen schwanger ist. war Teil der Besetzung des kommenden Films “Tick, Tick … Boom!” Unter der Regie von Lin-Manuel Miranda zeigt der Film eine Choreografie des vorausschauenden Ryan Heffington.

“Sie haben mich dabei unterstützt, schwanger zu sein, was ich wirklich großartig finde, weil ich denke, dass Frauen, die arbeiten, im Allgemeinen Schwierigkeiten mit der Schwangerschaft haben”, sagte Yalango-Grant. „Es ist sehr schwer, ein Kind zu bekommen und dann wiederzukommen. Und besonders für Darsteller und Tänzer ist es ein Kampf – und wir sind nicht wirklich auf Erfolg eingestellt. “

Tänzer des Balletttheaters und des Stadtballetts erhalten durch ihre Gewerkschaftsverträge Elternurlaub; Die Höhe der bezahlten Freizeit variiert je nach Unternehmen, Vertrag und den Umständen der Geburt. In der Regel erhalten Künstler am Broadway ihre Plätze bis zu einem Jahr lang unbezahlt.

Petinaud hatte beschlossen, vor dem Herunterfahren ein Kind zu bekommen – “Moulin Rouge!” schien eine Show zu sein, die von Dauer sein würde – und während sie in großartiger Form war, sagte sie, war ihr Körper auch vom Broadway-Zeitplan erschöpft. “Es ist wirklich eine Herausforderung, Platz und Raum für jede Art von Gleichgewicht außerhalb Ihrer Karriere zu schaffen, wenn Sie Tänzer oder Performer sind”, sagte sie. „Du bekommst einen Job und du denkst, großartig – ich werde diesen Job machen. Weil du nicht weißt, wann das nächste sein wird. Und das geht normalerweise zu Lasten Ihres Lebensgefährten oder fehlender Hochzeiten, Beerdigungen und Babys. “

Selbst mit Hilfe ist es schwer. Lang, die zwei Kinder hat, weiß, dass die Unterstützung ihres Mannes und ihrer Familie alles möglich macht. Der Zeitplan eines Tänzers – schwankende Probenpläne während des Tages, Auftritte in der Nacht – kann die Zeit für die Familie erschweren. Wie nachhaltig ist es, ein Baby zu bekommen, während acht Shows pro Woche ausgeglichen werden? Was wäre, wenn eine Broadway-Show zwei oder weniger Casts hätte?

Viele hoffen, dass sich die Kultur ändern kann. “Die Kultur ist Angst, weißt du?” Sagte Lang. “Es ist wie, oh mein Gott, ich kann nicht rufen – ich werde meinen Job verlieren.” Tänzer gehen mit dieser Kultur einher, um an Rollen festzuhalten. “Das muss für mich gehen”, fügte Lang hinzu. “Ich weiß, dass es in der Ballettwelt weit verbreitet ist – es ist überall weit verbreitet.”

Zu Beginn der Pandemie beschloss der 36-jährige Reichlen, Direktor des Stadtballetts, drei Monate frei zu tanzen. Sie hatte seit 20 Jahren keine Pause mehr gemacht; Dann, als diese drei Monate vorbei waren, fand sie heraus, dass sie schwanger war. Sie versuchte, wie andere in der Gesellschaft, ihre Ausbildung fortzusetzen, indem sie in ihrem Wohnzimmer tanzte. “Um ganz ehrlich zu sein, ich hasste das”, sagte sie. “Es ist einfach schrecklich.”

Um 5’9 ”sagte Reichlen, sie habe nicht genug Platz; Wenn sie fallen würde, könnte sie ihren Kopf auf die Küchentheke schlagen. Und sie begann die Schwangerschaft zu spüren. “Mein Körper fühlte sich einfach komisch an”, sagte sie. „Und ich dachte, weißt du was? Ich denke ich bin fertig. “

Jetzt, da ihr Sohn geboren ist, ist sie dankbar, dass sie Zeit hatte, sich zu bewegen, als sie wieder in Form kommt. Aber mit oder ohne Baby wird sich die Landschaft des Unternehmens verändert haben und das kann nicht anders, als auch ihren Tanz zu beeinflussen. “Wie wird die Dynamik sein, wenn wir zurückkommen?” Sie sagte. „Wir hatten nicht nur die Pandemie. Wir hatten all diese sozialen Unruhen, wir hatten die Wahl. Es ist einfach so viel passiert im letzten Jahr und dann habe ich auch ein Baby. “

Mit einem Lachen sagte Reichlen: “Ich meine, zuallererst bin ich nur wie, wie komme ich aus dem Haus?”

Alle Tänzer müssen wieder in Kampfform kommen, aber es gibt größere Herausforderungen für junge Mütter. Eine Schwangerschaft erhöht natürlich das Gewicht; es verändert auch die Ausrichtung des Körpers.

Kristin Sapienza, eine Ärztin für Physiotherapie, die mit Tänzern wie Fairchild zusammengearbeitet hat, sagte: „Die Muskeln im Beckenboden nehmen viel Druck auf und werden gestreckt.“ Diese Muskeln müssen neu koordiniert werden. Und es besteht auch die Möglichkeit einer Diastase recti: „Wenn sich die Bauchmuskeln des Rektus tatsächlich aufspalten und während der Schwangerschaft Platz für das Baby schaffen soll“, sagte Sapienza.

Die Linea alba, die entlang der Mittellinie des Bauches verläuft und die Muskeln verbindet, ist „im Wesentlichen wie ein Stück Saran Wrap, also muss man die Arbeit machen, um das wieder zu schließen“, fuhr Sapienza fort. „Für Tänzer braucht man ein solides Kernfundament, um im perfekten Moment die perfekte Bewegung zu erreichen – man braucht diese Kernstabilität.“

Post, die sich nach ihrer ersten Schwangerschaft mit postpartalen Stimmungsstörungen und Depressionen befasste, hat ihre aktuelle auf Instagram dokumentiert, um zu zeigen, dass es Höhen und Tiefen gibt. Sie sagte, bevor sie ihr erstes Kind bekam, war sie naiv und dachte: “Oh, ich werde ein Neugeborenes bekommen, es wird magisch und so süß.” Die Realität traf sie hart. „Dein ganzes Leben ändert sich über Nacht“, sagte sie, „und plötzlich hatte ich meinen Job nicht mehr. Ich hatte meine Freunde nicht so, wie ich es gewohnt war. Es ist eine ganze physische und emotionale Belastung, von der ich denke, dass sie besser unterstützt werden könnte. “

Diese erste Lieferung verlief reibungslos und unkompliziert, sagte Post, und sie war schockiert darüber, wie schwer es sich anfühlte, zurück zu kommen. “Ich glaube nicht, dass ich meine erste Ballettbarre erst nach drei Monaten nach der Geburt gemacht habe”, sagte sie. „Und in meinen Gedanken dachte ich, ich werde nach sechs Wochen für körperliche Aktivität freigegeben und ich werde wieder in eine sanfte Barre zurückkehren, aber nein. Ich fühlte mich nicht bereit. Ich weiß, dass jeder eine andere Erfahrung hat, aber ich hatte das Gefühl, dass sich mein Körper und meine Muskulatur komplett verändert haben. “

Silva, eine Veteranin des Dance Theatre of Harlem, verbrachte ihre gesamte Schwangerschaft mit Tanzen – ihre Tochter wurde am Freitag ihrer 39. Woche geboren – und sie ist bestrebt zurückzukehren, sagte sie: „Aber mit einem anderen Verständnis meines Körpers und anderen Gefühlen, verschiedene künstlerische Momente. “

Sie fügte hinzu: „Nach der Geburt eines Babys haben Sie das Gefühl, alles erobern zu können. Ich kann es kaum erwarten, wieder auf der Bühne zu stehen und zu sehen, was passieren wird. “

Auch Fang weiß, dass ihre Tochter Zia nicht nur ihre Tanzweise, sondern auch ihre künstlerische Herangehensweise verändern wird. “Mein Mann ist Afroamerikaner, und jetzt gibt es die Stop Asian Hate-Bewegung, und ich bin chinesischer Herkunft”, sagte Fang, 37 Jahre alt. „Wie werden wir Zia als biraciales Kind für diese Generation erziehen? Was ist meine Verantwortung als Tänzerin für diese neue Rolle als Mutter? “

Als Künstlerin, sagte sie, sei es die Verantwortung, die Wahrheit auf ehrliche und anmutige Weise zu vermitteln. “Ich sehe meine Rolle als Mutter in diesem Licht”, sagte sie. „In den klassischen Ballettgeschichten gibt es immer Licht und Dunkelheit. Für Zia wird es wichtig sein zu verstehen, dass dies auch der Weg der Welt ist. Als Tänzer und Choreograf liebe ich es zu vermitteln, dass Dunkelheit immer vom Licht überholt wird. Und das werde ich meiner Tochter beibringen. “

Wenn Sie jemanden haben, um den Sie sich kümmern müssen, kann sich die Leistungsqualität eines Tänzers ändern. Tänzer zu beobachten, die kürzlich Kinder bekommen haben, kann ein Nervenkitzel sein: Die Bühne ist ihre Zeit, um allein zu sein, und sie werden es nicht verschwenden. Sie leben es. Stafford hat bemerkt, dass Tänzer nach der Geburt eines Kindes oft als bessere Künstler zurückkehren. „Vielleicht bringt dieser zusätzliche Mensch in Ihrem Leben nur etwas in Ihnen hervor, das sonst in Ihrer Kunst auf der Bühne nicht herauskommt“, sagte er und fügte Fairchild hinzu: „Ich meine, Megan hat das Beste getanzt, das sie jemals getanzt hat, seit sie von ihr zurückgekommen ist erstes Kind.”

Und sie ist bereit, es wieder zu tun. Aber sie hatte es mit ihrer zweiten Schwangerschaft nicht leicht; Mit 26 Wochen bekam sie vorzeitige Wehen. Ärzte beobachten Frauen, die mit Zwillingen schwanger sind wie ein Falke, sagte Fairchild. Sie war gezwungen, sich auszuruhen und sich „so viele Stunden am Tag wie möglich“ auf die Couch zu legen, sagte sie. „Für einen Tänzer fühlt es sich ekelhaft an. Ich fühle mich ekelhaft. “

Das war Mitte März. Anfang April, als Fairchild in der 35. Schwangerschaftswoche schwanger war, sprachen wir erneut, nachdem sie, ihr Mann und ihre Tochter sich mit dem Coronavirus infiziert hatten.

“Wir haben Covid aus der Kindertagesstätte meiner Tochter bekommen und es war das einzige Risiko, das wir eingegangen sind, weil ich mich ausruhen musste”, sagte sie.

Da die Babys voll entwickelt waren, sagte Fairchild, sie habe sich nie Sorgen um sie gemacht. Aber es war rau. Sie bekam auch Halsentzündungen und entwickelte einen starken sauren Reflux. “Ich hatte Schleim nach unten, Säure nach oben und dann die Halsschmerzen”, sagte sie. „Ich war noch nie so elend. Und obendrein, was bin ich? Achtunddreißig Pfund schwerer als normal? “

Sie blickte finster und fügte hinzu: “Ich kann mich nicht einmal leicht im Bett umdrehen.”

Nein, Fairchild hat sich nie darum gekümmert, schwanger zu sein. (Ihr Wort dafür ist schrecklich.) Aber sie war bereit für den Aufruhr. Da sie gerne weise knackt, wird sie genug Töchter haben, um als Musen in George Balanchines „Apollo“ zu wirken.

“Es wird ein lauter Haushalt, und das wollte ich”, sagte sie. „Bevor wir das erste Mal schwanger wurden, sagte ich zu meinem Mann:‚ In unserem Haus ist es zu ruhig. ‘ Ich will das Leben. Ich möchte, dass jemand uns morgens weckt und ins Bett kriecht. Und so wird es diese wilde Party sein. Ich hasse es, allein zu sein. Ich werde wahrscheinlich nie mehr lange alleine sein. “

Categories
Business

Billionaire Jeff Greene says this housing growth is in a bubble, too

A real estate investor who made a fortune short of subprime mortgages more than a decade ago told CNBC on Friday it believed the current real estate market was in a bubble.

“Absolutely. I think we’re in an omni-bubble. How long does it take? It depends. How long do you keep the faucet open and this money running?” Billionaire Jeff Greene said on “Power Lunch”.

“There’s just so much money on corporate balance sheets … and on people’s balance sheets and in their bank accounts that it only increases the price of everything higher, but at some point it has to stop,” Greene said.

The real estate market was one of the strongest parts of the US economy during the coronavirus pandemic, which also left millions of people jobless and sparked a recession.

Mortgage rates have been historically low, and the rise in remote working has given Americans more flexibility in where they live. Property prices have risen as strong demand collided with low supply.

Greene isn’t the first person to claim the market has overheated, although his previous bet against the mid-2000s real estate market makes his comments on Friday noteworthy. Recently, Google did a search for “When is the real estate market going to collapse?” have shifted dramatically.

“When you see prices go up as they go up, you have to ask yourself: why did this happen?” Greene said the robust monetary and fiscal response to the pandemic played a key role.

“I think 80% of this was because of the extraordinary liquidity in the economy and 20% because of fundamentals,” he said. The investor also pointed to the rising cost of sawn timber, suggesting that different parts of the economy will see significant inflation as it recovers from the crisis.

“I think we’re going to have inflation that nobody … is predicting, and it’s going to have to lead to much higher interest rates, and that’s going to slow down all of these markets,” Greene said.

Jeff Greene

Cameron Costa | CNBC

Not everyone shares Greene’s view that the real estate market is in a bubble, even though they think real estate values ​​could see a brief correction. A big reason some people say this boom is different is that mortgage underwriting standards have improved because of the previous crash.

Others see it differently than Greene, which is what is causing the surge in demand. “I know there is great concern about possible speculation, but that’s really not what is happening in the market today,” Ryan Gorman, CEO of Coldwell Banker Real Estate, told CNBC on Tuesday.

Gorman’s company, owned by Realogy, recently conducted a survey that looked at why people are considering selling a home.

“About 40% is upsizing, the most classic reason people want to move. About 30% see an increase in value in their home, so they say, ‘Maybe I want to monetize that value. Maybe my retirement plans move forward,” Gorman told Power Lunch “.

“You still have about 30% who say, ‘If I can work remotely at least part of the time, maybe all the time, then maybe I want to live somewhere different from now, maybe somewhere a little cheaper,” said Gorman. “As home prices rise, affordability is a relative term and we are seeing some people benefit from it.”

Categories
Health

The Covid-19 Plasma Growth Is Over. What Did We Study From It?

Scott Cohen was on a ventilator struggling for his life with Covid-19 last April when his brothers pleaded with Plainview Hospital on Long Island to infuse him with the blood plasma of a recovered patient.

The experimental treatment was hard to get but was gaining attention at a time when doctors had little else. After an online petition drew 18,000 signatures, the hospital gave Mr. Cohen, a retired Nassau County medic, an infusion of the pale yellow stuff that some called “liquid gold.”

In those terrifying early months of the pandemic, the idea that antibody-rich plasma could save lives took on a life of its own before there was evidence that it worked. The Trump administration, buoyed by proponents at elite medical institutions, seized on plasma as a good-news story at a time when there weren’t many others. It awarded more than $800 million to entities involved in its collection and administration, and put Dr. Anthony S. Fauci’s face on billboards promoting the treatment.

A coalition of companies and nonprofit groups, including the Mayo Clinic, Red Cross and Microsoft, mobilized to urge donations from people who had recovered from Covid-19, enlisting celebrities like Samuel L. Jackson and Dwayne Johnson, the actor known as the Rock. Volunteers, some dressed in superhero capes, showed up to blood banks in droves.

Mr. Cohen, who later recovered, was one of them. He went on to donate his own plasma 11 times.

But by the end of the year, good evidence for convalescent plasma had not materialized, prompting many prestigious medical centers to quietly abandon it. By February, with cases and hospitalizations dropping, demand dipped below what blood banks had stockpiled. In March, the New York Blood Center called Mr. Cohen to cancel his 12th appointment. It didn’t need any more plasma.

A year ago, when Americans were dying of Covid at an alarming rate, the federal government made a big bet on plasma. No one knew if the treatment would work, but it seemed biologically plausible and safe, and there wasn’t much else to try. All told, more than 722,000 units of plasma were distributed to hospitals thanks to the federal program, which ends this month.

The government’s bet did not result in a blockbuster treatment for Covid-19, or even a decent one. But it did give the country a real-time education in the pitfalls of testing a medical treatment in the middle of an emergency. Medical science is messy and slow. And when a treatment fails, which is often, it can be difficult for its strongest proponents to let it go.

Because the government gave plasma to so many patients outside of a controlled clinical trial, it took a long time to measure its effectiveness. Eventually, studies did emerge to suggest that under the right conditions, plasma might help. But enough evidence has now accumulated to show that the country’s broad, costly plasma campaign had little effect, especially in people whose disease was advanced enough to land them in the hospital.

In interviews, three federal health officials — Dr. Stephen M. Hahn, the former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration; Dr. Peter Marks, a top F.D.A. regulator; and Dr. H. Clifford Lane, a clinical director at the National Institutes of Health — acknowledged that the evidence for plasma was limited.

“The data are just not that strong, and it makes it makes it hard, I think, to be enthusiastic about seeing it continue to be used,” Dr. Lane said. The N.I.H. recently halted an outpatient trial of plasma because of a lack of benefit.

Doctors have used the antibodies of recovered patients as treatments for more than a century, for diseases including diphtheria, the 1918 flu and Ebola.

So when patients began falling ill with the new coronavirus last year, doctors around the world turned to the old standby.

In the United States, two hospitals — Mount Sinai in New York City and Houston Methodist in Texas — administered the first plasma units to Covid-19 patients within hours of each other on March 28.

Dr. Nicole M. Bouvier, an infectious-disease doctor who helped set up Mount Sinai’s plasma program, said the hospital had tried the experimental treatment because blood transfusions carry a relatively low risk of harm. With a new virus spreading quickly, and no approved treatments, “nature is a much better manufacturer than we are,” she said.

As Mount Sinai prepared to infuse patients with plasma, Diana Berrent, a photographer, was recovering from Covid-19 at her home in Port Washington, N.Y. Friends began sending her Mount Sinai’s call for donors.

“I had no idea what plasma was — I haven’t taken a science class since high school,” Ms. Berrent recalled. But as she researched its history in previous disease outbreaks, she became fixated on how she could help.

She formed a Facebook group of Covid-19 survivors that grew to more than 160,000 members and eventually became a health advocacy organization, Survivor Corps. She livestreamed her own donation sessions to the Facebook group, which in turn prompted more donations.

“People were flying places to go donate plasma to each other,” she said. “It was really a beautiful thing to see.”

Around the same time, Chaim Lebovits, a shoe wholesaler from Monsey, N.Y., in hard-hit Rockland County, was spreading the word about plasma within his Orthodox Jewish community. Mr. Lebovits called several rabbis he knew, and before long, thousands of Orthodox Jewish people were getting tested for coronavirus antibodies and showing up to donate. Coordinating it all was exhausting.

“April,” Mr. Lebovits recalled with a laugh, “was like 20 decades.”

Two developments that month further accelerated plasma’s use. With the help of $66 million in federal funding, the F.D.A. tapped the Mayo Clinic to run an expanded access program for hospitals across the country. And the government agreed to cover the administrative costs of collecting plasma, signing deals with the American Red Cross and America’s Blood Centers.

The news releases announcing those deals got none of the flashy media attention that the billion-dollar contracts for Covid-19 vaccines did when they arrived later in the summer. And the government did not disclose how much it would be investing.

That investment turned out to be significant. According to contract records, the U.S. government has paid $647 million to the American Red Cross and America’s Blood Centers since last April.

“The convalescent plasma program was intended to meet an urgent need for a potential therapy early in the pandemic,” a health department spokeswoman said in a statement. “When these contracts began, treatments weren’t available for hospitalized Covid-19 patients.”

Updated 

April 17, 2021, 11:41 a.m. ET

As spring turned to summer, the Trump administration seized on plasma — as it had with the unproven drug hydroxychloroquine — as a promising solution. In July, the administration announced an $8 million advertising campaign “imploring Americans to donate their plasma and help save lives.” The blitz included promotional radio spots and billboards featuring Dr. Fauci and Dr. Hahn, the F.D.A. commissioner.

A coalition to organize the collection of plasma was beginning to take shape, connecting researchers, federal officials, activists like Ms. Berrent and Mr. Lebovits, and major corporations like Microsoft and Anthem on regular calls that have continued to this day. Nonprofit blood banks and for-profit plasma collection companies also joined the collaboration, named the Fight Is In Us.

The group also included the Mitre Corporation, a little-known nonprofit organization that had received a $37 million government grant to promote plasma donation around the country.

The participants sometimes had conflicting interests. While the blood banks were collecting plasma to be immediately infused in hospitalized patients, the for-profit companies needed plasma donations to develop their own blood-based treatment for Covid-19. Donations at those companies’ own centers had also dropped off after national lockdowns.

“They don’t all exactly get along,” Peter Lee, the corporate vice president of research and incubations at Microsoft, said at a virtual scientific forum in March organized by Scripps Research.

Microsoft was recruited to develop a locator tool, embedded on the group’s website, for potential donors. But the company took on a broader role “as a neutral intermediary,” Dr. Lee said.

The company also provided access to its advertising agency, which created the look and feel for the Fight Is In Us campaign, which included video testimonials from celebrities.

In August, the F.D.A. authorized plasma for emergency use under pressure from President Donald J. Trump, who had chastised federal scientists for moving too slowly.

At a news conference, Dr. Hahn, the agency’s commissioner, substantially exaggerated the data, although he later corrected his remarks following criticism from the scientific community.

In a recent interview, he said that Mr. Trump’s involvement in the plasma authorization had made the topic polarizing.

“Any discussion one could have about the science and medicine behind it didn’t happen, because it became a political issue as opposed to a medical and scientific one,” Dr. Hahn said.

The authorization did away with the Mayo Clinic system and opened access to even more hospitals. As Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths skyrocketed in the fall and winter, use of plasma did, too, according to national usage data provided by the Blood Centers of America. By January of this year, when the United States was averaging more than 130,000 hospitalizations a day, hospitals were administering 25,000 units of plasma per week.

Many community hospitals serving lower-income patients, with few other options and plasma readily available, embraced the treatment. At the Integris Health system in Oklahoma, giving patients two units of plasma became standard practice between November and January.

Dr. David Chansolme, the system’s medical director of infection prevention, acknowledged that studies of plasma had showed it was “more miss than hit,” but he said his hospitals last year lacked the resources of bigger institutions, including access to the antiviral drug remdesivir. Doctors with a flood of patients — many of them Hispanic and from rural communities — were desperate to treat them with anything they could that was safe, Dr. Chansolme said.

By the fall, accumulating evidence was showing that plasma was not the miracle that some early boosters had believed it to be. In September, the Infectious Diseases Society of America recommended that plasma not be used in hospitalized patients outside of a clinical trial. (On Wednesday, the society restricted its advice further, saying plasma should not be used at all in hospitalized patients.) In January, a highly anticipated trial in Britain was halted early because there was not strong evidence of a benefit in hospitalized patients.

In February, the F.D.A. narrowed the authorization for plasma so that it applied only to people who were early in the course of their disease or who couldn’t make their own antibodies.

Dr. Marks, the F.D.A. regulator, said that in retrospect, scientists had been too slow to adapt to those recommendations. They had known from previous disease outbreaks that plasma treatment is likely to work best when given early, and when it contained high levels of antibodies, he said.

“Somehow we didn’t really take that as seriously as perhaps we should have,” he said. “If there was a lesson in this, it’s that history actually can teach you something.”

Today, several medical centers have largely stopped giving plasma to patients. At Rush University Medical Center in Chicago, researchers found that many hospitalized patients were already producing their own antibodies, so plasma treatments would be superfluous. The Cleveland Clinic no longer routinely administers plasma because of a “lack of convincing evidence of efficacy,” according to Dr. Simon Mucha, a critical care physician.

And earlier this year, Mount Sinai stopped giving plasma to patients outside of a clinical trial. Dr. Bouvier said that she had tracked the scientific literature and that there had been a “sort of piling on” of studies that showed no benefit.

“That’s what science is — it’s a process of abandoning your old hypotheses in favor of a better hypothesis,” she said. Many initially promising drugs fail in clinical trials. “That’s just the way the cookie crumbles.”

Some scientists are calling on the F.D.A. to rescind plasma’s emergency authorization. Dr. Luciana Borio, the acting chief scientist at the agency under President Barack Obama, said that disregarding the usual scientific standards in an emergency — what she called “pandemic exceptionalism” — had drained valuable time and attention from discovering other treatments.

“Pandemic exceptionalism is something we learned from prior emergencies that leads to serious unintended consequences,” she said, referring to the ways countries leaned on inadequate studies during the Ebola outbreak. With plasma, she said, “the agency forgot lessons from past emergencies.”

While scant evidence shows that plasma will help curb the pandemic, a dedicated clutch of researchers at prominent medical institutions continue to focus on the narrow circumstances in which it might work.

Dr. Arturo Casadevall, an immunologist at Johns Hopkins University, said many of the trials had not succeeded because they tested plasma on very sick patients. “If they’re treated early, the results of the trials are all consistent,” he said.

A clinical trial in Argentina found that giving plasma early to older people reduced the progression of Covid-19. And an analysis of the Mayo Clinic program found that patients who were given plasma with a high concentration of antibodies fared better than those who did not receive the treatment. Still, in March, the N.I.H. halted a trial of plasma in people who were not yet severely ill with Covid-19 because the agency said it was unlikely to help.

With most of the medical community acknowledging plasma’s limited benefit, even the Fight Is In Us has begun to shift its focus. For months, a “clinical research” page about convalescent plasma was dominated by favorable studies and news releases, omitting major articles concluding that plasma showed little benefit.

Now, the website has been redesigned to more broadly promote not only plasma, but also testing, vaccines and other treatments like monoclonal antibodies, which are synthesized in a lab and thought to be a more potent version of plasma. Its clinical research page also includes more negative studies about plasma.

Nevertheless, the Fight Is In Us is still running Facebook ads, paid for by the federal government, telling Covid-19 survivors that “There’s a hero inside you” and “Keep up the fight.” The ads urge them to donate their plasma, even though most blood banks have stopped collecting it.

Two of plasma’s early boosters, Mr. Lebovits and Ms. Berrent, have also turned their attention to monoclonal antibodies. As he had done with plasma last spring, Mr. Lebovits helped increase acceptance of monoclonals in the Orthodox Jewish community, setting up an informational hotline, running ads in Orthodox newspapers, and creating rapid testing sites that doubled as infusion centers. Coordinating with federal officials, Mr. Lebovits has since shared his strategies with leaders in the Hispanic community in El Paso and San Diego.

And Ms. Berrent has been working with a division of the insurer UnitedHealth to match the right patients — people with underlying health conditions or who are over 65 — to that treatment.

“I’m a believer in plasma for a lot of substantive reasons, but if word came back tomorrow that jelly beans worked better, we’d be promoting jelly beans,” she said. “We are here to save lives.”’

Categories
World News

Insurgency threatens Mozambique’s historic pure fuel funding increase

Pemba, Mozambique – Families wait in front of the port of Pemba for the boat of the evacuees from the coasts of Palma on April 1, 2021. More than a thousand people evacuated from the shores of the city of Palma arrived at the seaport of Pemba after insurgents attacked Palma on March 24, 2021.

Alfredo Zuniga / AFP via Getty Images

Mozambique had placed its economic hopes on the colossal natural gas reserves discovered a decade ago – but an escalating Islamist uprising threatens to tear the carpet out from a surge in private investment.

In late March, an armed Islamist group loosely connected to ISIS and known locally as Al-Shabab – not to be confused with the Somali militant group of the same name – attacked the gas-rich city of Palma in the country’s northern province of Cabo Delgado. inflict mass civilian casualties and displace tens of thousands.

The attack came within hours after French energy giant Total announced it was resuming its Mozambique Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project, a $ 20 billion facility located on the nearby Afungi peninsula Construction is.

According to Standard Bank, up to 120 billion US dollars are at stake nationwide for LNG projects.

The International Monetary Fund expects Mozambique’s GDP to grow by 2.1% in 2021, with inflation projected at 5.3%. However, Standard Bank recently highlighted in a statement that the escalation towards guerrilla warfare could undermine the benefits of the LNG projects.

“While long-term growth prospects, aided by LNG investments, remain broadly positive, armed conflict is limiting prospects for more inclusive growth,” it said.

Tax hit

Together with the humanitarian crisis triggered by the uprising – with the warning from the United Nations World Food Program on Tuesday that almost a million people in the north of the country are suffering from severe hunger – the attacks also pose an existential threat to public finances.

“The longer the conflict pushes back the completion of the planned LNG projects, the longer it will take for the indebted Mozambican government to generate income from gas exports,” said Gerrit van Rooyen, economist at NKC African Economics.

Total has now moved all staff from its Afungi location, but van Rooyen suggested that this could be a tactic to pressure the government to improve security around the Afungi complex and accept foreign aid instead of one accept permanent exit. Total declined to comment when contacted by CNBC.

President Filipe Nyusi’s government has relied primarily on private security companies to support defense efforts while restricting access to aid workers and journalists.

In addition to Total’s LNG project, both the US energy company ExxonMobil and the Italian energy supplier Eni are carrying out separate energy projects in the country, all of which are of crucial importance for the future of Mozambique’s taxation.

The delayed start of LNG exports is likely to reduce government revenues noticeably.

Mozambican soldiers leave the tarmac of the airport in Pemba on March 31, 2021. – Sporadic clashes broke out in Palma on Tuesday as thousands of residents hid in the besieged city in northern Mozambique to escape the area overrun by militant jihadists, agencies said.

AFP via Getty Images

The Mozambican Ministry of the Economy and Finance estimated in 2018 that a 20% cost overrun and 18 month delay in two key areas of LNG projects would reduce government revenues by around 6% – nearly USD 2.5 billion – over a 25-year period. could lower.

“The longer it takes for LNG projects to reap benefits, the longer the government will have to draw on other resources and international aid to finance the country’s economic development and service its external debt,” said van Rooyen.

NKC estimates that external debt was $ 11.8 billion, or nearly 87% of GDP, at the end of 2020, with the government spending more than 13% of total revenue on interest payments over the course of the year.

The LNG projects should push growth back to over 5% per year, said van Rooyen, which – if everything goes according to plan – should help steer the country’s mountain of debt to a more sustainable level.

“Safety vacuum”

Mozambican security forces as well as private military contractors and Total’s security team were blind from last month’s raid on Al-Shabab. The ensuing struggle lasted about 12 days and counterinsurgency operations continue.

The South African 16-nation development community held an emergency meeting last week condemning the violence and promising an “appropriate regional response”.

Risk advisory agency Pangea-Risk said in a research report last week that the attack was not triggered by Total’s announcement that it would resume operations. Instead, it was said that the move took place after months of preparatory planning by militants who have been increasingly active in the region since 2017.

Pangea risk first warned in October 2020 and again on March 12, two weeks before the attack, that insurgents were planning attacks in natural gas hub cities.

Pemba, MOZAMBIQUE – The OCSV Sapura Diamante (Offshore Construction Support Vessel), a pipe-layer ship used in offshore construction, is docked in the port of Pemba, where sailboats with people displaced from the coasts of Palma and Afungi are awaited attacked by armed groups on March 30, 2021.

Alfredo Zuniga / AFP via Getty Images

“There will be a security vacuum in Cabo Delgado next month, if not longer, exposing both Palma and other places in the province to further militant attacks,” said Robert Besseling, CEO of Pangea-Risk.

According to Besseling, local sources expect a raid on the resettlement village of Quitunda near the LNG site on the Afungi peninsula in the coming weeks.

“Such a raid would put pressure on the Afungi garrison to leave the security zone around the LNG site and to use it to protect vulnerable displaced persons in Quitunda, which may violate the Mozambican government’s security treaty with Total, ” he added.

Besseling suggested that the provincial capital Pemba and the Tanzanian port city and gas center in Mtwara in the Rovuma border region between the two countries will be “very ambitious targets” for the insurgents.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in Cabo Delgado is expected to worsen in the coming weeks as refugees continue to flee Palma for camps in nearby districts. The total number of displaced people is estimated at over 700,000 and is increasing.

Categories
Business

China’s First-Quarter Development Is Anticipated to Growth on Paper

Factories are buzzing, new apartments are being snapped up and more jobs are available. When China released its new economic data on Friday, they showed a remarkable post-pandemic increase.

The question is whether small businesses and Chinese consumers can fully participate in good times.

China reported Friday that its economy grew a staggering 18.3 percent in the first three months of the year compared to the same period last year. While the number is steep, it also reflects the past – the country’s production fell 6.8 percent year over year in the first quarter of 2020 – like an indication of how China is doing now.

A year ago, entire cities were shut down, planes grounded, and highways blocked to control the spread of a relentless virus. Today, global demand for computer screens and video consoles in China is increasing as people work from home and a pandemic recovers. That demand has continued as Americans conduct stimulus checks to try to spend money on patio furniture, electronics, and other goods made in Chinese factories.

China’s recovery was also fueled by large infrastructure. Cranes dominate the city’s skyline. Construction projects for highways and railways have created short-term jobs. Property sales have also helped boost economic activity.

But exports and real estate investments can only carry China’s growth so far. Now China is trying to get its consumers to return to their pre-pandemic routes, something other countries will soon struggle with with newly available vaccines.

Demand for Chinese exports is likely to weaken over the course of the year. Policymakers have tried to contain overheating in the property market and the corporate sector, where some companies have borrowed beyond their means. Many economists are looking for signs of a broader recovery, relying less on exports and government and more on Chinese consumers to fuel juice growth.

A slow rollout of vaccinations and fresh reminders of bans have unsettled many consumers in the country. The restaurants are still struggling to recover. Waiters, shopkeepers and students are not yet ready for the “revenge spending” that economists hope will fuel growth. When virus outbreaks happen, Chinese authorities quickly put in place new bans that harm small businesses and their customers.

To avoid a wave of outbreaks in February, authorities have canceled millions of migrant workers’ travel plans for the New Year holiday, the biggest public holiday in China.

“China’s Covid strategy has been to destroy it when it comes back, but there seems to be a lot of voluntary social distancing and that is affecting services,” said Shaun Roache, chief economist for Asia Pacific at S&P Global. “It is holding back normalization.”

Wu Zhen runs a family business with 13 restaurants and dozen of banquet halls in Yingtan, a city in southeast China’s Jiangxi Province. When China got back on its feet last year, more people went to their restaurants to enjoy their favorite dishes like braised pork. But just as she and her staff were preparing for the Lunar New Year, a new outbreak of Covid-19 caused authorities to limit the number of people allowed to gather in one place to 50.

“It should have been the best time of year for our business,” said Ms. Wu, 33.

That year, Ms. Wu decided that it would be cheaper to close the entire store while on vacation. “If we want to serve New Year’s Eve dinner, the wages for a day are three times higher than the usual time. We’re saving more money by just closing the doors and the shop, ”she said. It is the second year in a row that restaurants have closed their doors during the holidays.

Updated

April 15, 2021, 9:08 p.m. ET

Ms. Wu inherited the business from her father two years ago and employs more than 800 people. Before the pandemic, three quarters of business revenue came from large banquets for weddings and family reunions. She said business has not returned to normal after months of the virus restrictions being lifted.

The setbacks that small business owners like Ms. Wu face also affect regular consumers who are nervous about opening their wallets. Zhaopin, China’s largest job-recruiting platform, says there are more vacancies in hotels and restaurants, entertainment services and real estate than there was a year ago. But households are still cautious about spending.

Families continue to save faster than they did before the pandemic, worrying economists like Louis Kuijs, head of Asian economics at Oxford Economics. Mr Kuijs sees household savings as an indication of whether Chinese consumers are ready to start splurging after months of being stuck at home.

“More people still don’t seem to be going all the way in terms of carefree spending,” he said. “Sometimes there are still some concerns about Covid, but maybe there are also concerns about the general economic situation.”

Many families have taken on more debt over the past year to buy real estate and cover expenses during the pandemic. China is still largely lacking the social safety net that many affluent countries offer, and some families have to invest in savings for health care and other large expenses.

Unlike most developed countries, China does not subsidize its consumers. Rather than handing out checks last year to stimulate the economy, China ordered state banks to lend to businesses and offered tax breaks.

Travel restrictions during the Chinese New Year holidays dampened consumer appetites and slowed the momentum of Chinese shoppers. However, Friday retail data showed that March sales were better than expected, raising hopes that consumers like Li Jinqiu, 25, could feel more confident in the months ahead.

At the moment, Mr. Li, who is recently married and has a baby at home, still chooses to save rather than spend. He had planned to work for the family business but it has been hit by the pandemic and he doesn’t think there will be many options for him if he stays.

“The whole family has a sense of crisis,” said Mr. Li. “Because of the pandemic and the family business, I feel a sense of crisis.”

Mr. Li said he received a sales job with a financial firm in Beijing, but postponed the start date to care for his newborn. He said he borrowed once to spend on items like his $ 150,000 Mercedes. Now he drives a $ 46,000 electric car and has postponed buying new clothes.

“When I spend,” he said, “I’m more careful.”

Categories
Business

‘The U.S. Economic system Will Possible Increase,’ Jamie Dimon Predicts: Reside Updates

Here’s what you need to know:

Credit…Jeenah Moon/Reuters

The annual letter to shareholders by JPMorgan Chase’s chief executive, Jamie Dimon, was published early Wednesday. The letter, which is widely read on Wall Street, is not just an overview of the bank’s business but also covers Mr. Dimon’s thoughts on everything from leadership lessons to public policy prescriptions.

“The U.S. economy will likely boom.” A combination of excess savings, deficit spending, vaccinations and “euphoria around the end of the pandemic,” Mr. Dimon wrote, may create a boom that “could easily run into 2023.” That could justify high stock valuations, but not the price of U.S. debt, given the “huge supply” soon to hit the market. There is a chance that a rise in inflation would be “more than temporary,” he wrote, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively. “Rapidly raising rates to offset an overheating economy is a typical cause of a recession,” he wrote, but he hopes for “the Goldilocks scenario” of fast growth, gently increasing inflation and a measured rise in interest rates.

“Banks are playing an increasingly smaller role in the financial system.” Mr. Dimon cited competition from an already large shadow banking system and fintech companies, as well as “Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google and now Walmart.” He argued those nonbank competitors should be more strictly regulated; their growth has “partially been made possible” by avoiding banking rules, he wrote. And when it comes to tougher regulation of big banks, he wrote, “the cost to the economy of having fail-safe banks may not be worth it.”

“China’s leaders believe that America is in decline.” The United States has faced tough times before, but today, “the Chinese see an America that is losing ground in technology, infrastructure and education — a nation torn and crippled by politics, as well as racial and income inequality — and a country unable to coordinate government policies (fiscal, monetary, industrial, regulatory) in any coherent way to accomplish national goals,” he wrote. “Unfortunately, recently, there is a lot of truth to this.”

“The solution is not as simple as walking away from fossil fuels.” Addressing climate change doesn’t mean “abandoning” companies that produce and use fossil fuels, Mr. Dimon wrote, but working with them to reduce their environmental impact. He sees “huge opportunity in sustainable and low-carbon technologies and businesses” and plans to evaluate clients’ progress according to reductions in carbon intensity — emissions per unit of output — which adjusts for factors like size.

Other notable news (and views) from the letter:

  • With more widespread remote working, JPMorgan may need only 60 seats for every 100 employees. “This will significantly reduce our need for real estate,” Mr. Dimon wrote.

  • JPMorgan spends more than $600 million a year on cybersecurity.

  • Mr. Dimon cited tax loopholes he thought the United States could do without: carried interest, tax breaks for racing cars, private jets and horse racing, and a land conservation tax break for golf courses.

This was Mr. Dimon’s longest letter yet, at 35,000 words over 66 pages. The steadily expanding letters — aside from a shorter edition last year, weeks after Mr. Dimon had emergency heart surgery — could be seen as a reflection of the range of issues top executives are now expected, or compelled, to address.

Target said its commitment added to its other moves to improve racial equity in the past year,.Credit…Kendrick Brinson for The New York Times

Target will spend more than $2 billion with Black-owned businesses by 2025, it announced on Wednesday, joining a growing list of retailers that have promised to increase their economic support of such companies in a bid to advance racial equity in the United States.

Target, which is based in Minneapolis, will add more products from companies owned by Black entrepreneurs, spend more with Black-owned marketing agencies and construction companies and introduce new resources to help Black-owned vendors navigate the process of creating products for a mass retail chain, the company said in a statement.

After last year’s protests over police brutality, a wave of American retailers, from Sephora to Macy’s, have committed to spending more money with Black-owned businesses. Many of them have joined a movement known as the 15 Percent Pledge, which supports devoting enough shelf space to Black-owned businesses to align with the African-American percentage of the national population.

Target’s announcement appears to be separate from that pledge. It said its commitment added to other racial-equity and social-justice initiatives in the past year, including efforts to improve representation among its work force.

A Samsung store in Seoul. The company’s Galaxy S21 series of  phones have sold well in the United States since their introduction in January. Credit…Jung Yeon-Je/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Samsung’s sales grew by an estimated 17 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, and operating profit increased by 44 percent, the company said on Wednesday. The South Korean electronics titan’s growth has been helped during the pandemic by strong demand for televisions, computer monitors and other lockdown staples.

The company released its latest flagship smartphones, the Galaxy S21 series, in January. In the United States, the devices handily outsold Samsung’s last line of premium phones in their first six weeks on the market, according to Counterpoint Research, which attributed the strong performance in part to Americans receiving stimulus payments.

Samsung’s handset business has also been buoyed of late by the U.S. campaign against Huawei, one of the company’s main rivals in smartphones. The Chinese tech giant’s device sales have plummeted because American sanctions prevent its phones from running popular Google apps and services, limiting their appeal to many buyers.

Another competitor, LG Electronics, said this week that it was getting out of the smartphone business to focus on other products.

Samsung’s first-quarter revenue was likely hurt by February’s winter storm in Texas, which caused the company to halt production for a while at its manufacturing facilities in Austin.

The company is expected to report detailed financial results later this month.

Jeff Bezos in 2019. He said in a statement on Tuesday that he applauded the Biden administration’s “focus on making bold investments in American infrastructure.”Credit…Jared Soares for The New York Times

Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and chief executive, said on Tuesday that he supported an increase in the corporate tax rate to fund investment in U.S. infrastructure.

President Biden is pushing a plan to spend $2 trillion on infrastructure improvements, in part by raising the corporate tax rate to 28 percent, from its current rate of 21 percent.

Mr. Bezos said in a statement on Amazon’s corporate website that he applauded the administration’s “focus on making bold investments in American infrastructure.”

“We recognize this investment will require concessions from all sides — both on the specifics of what’s included as well as how it gets paid for (we’re supportive of a rise in the corporate tax rate),” Mr. Bezos said.

For years, Amazon has been a model for corporate tax avoidance, fielding criticism of its tax strategies from Democrats and former President Donald J. Trump. In 2019, Amazon had an effective tax rate of 1.2 percent, which was offset by tax rebates in 2017 and 2018, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a left-leaning research group in Washington. In 2020, the company paid 9.4 percent in taxes on U.S. pretax profit of about $20 billion, the group said.

The company has said in the past that it “pays all the taxes we are required to pay in the U.S. and every country where we operate.”

Companies employ varied strategies to reduce their tax liabilities. In 2017, the same federal bill that lowered the tax rate to 21 percent expanded tax breaks, including allowing the immediate expensing of capital expenditures. The goal was to lift investment, but the change also caused the number of profitable companies that paid no taxes to nearly double in 2018 from prior years.

Brandon Brown and Jeremiah Collins, students at American Diesel Training.Credit…Brian Kaiser for The New York Times

American Diesel Training, a school in Ohio that prepares people for careers as diesel mechanics, is part of a new model of work force training — one that bases pay for training programs partly on whether students get hired.

The students agree to an share about 5 percent to 9 percent of their income depending on their earnings. The monthly payments last four years. If you lose your job, the payment obligation stops.

Early results are promising, Steve Lohr reports for The New York Times, and experts say the approach makes far more economic sense than the traditional method, in which programs are paid based on how many people enroll. But there are only a relative handful of these pay-for-success programs. The challenge has been to align funding and incentives so that students, training programs and employers all benefit.

State and federal officials are now looking for new ways to improve work force development. President Biden’s $2 trillion infrastructure and jobs plan, announced last week, includes billions for work force development with an emphasis on “next-generation training programs” that embrace “evidence-based approaches.”

Social Finance, a nonprofit organization founded a decade ago to develop new ways to finance results-focused social programs, is seeking, designing and supporting new programs — for-profit or nonprofit — that follow the pay-for-success model.

“There is emerging evidence that these kinds of programs are a very effective and exciting part of work force development,” said Lawrence Katz, a labor economist at Harvard. “Social Finance is targeting and nurturing new programs, and it brings a financing mechanism that allows them to expand.”

A former Kmart in West Orange, N.J., is now a coronavirus vaccination center. The International Monetary Fund said successful vaccination programs have improved countries’ growth prospects.Credit…James Estrin/The New York Times

Major U.S. and European stock indexes hovered near record highs on Wednesday after a stream of mostly upbeat economic data and the progress on vaccinations.

U.S. stock futures were little changed on Wednesday, but the S&P 500 was set to open within half a percentage point of its record. The Stoxx Europe 600 and DAX index in Germany both fell about 0.1 percent after climbing to new highs on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its forecast for global economic growth and said some of the world’s wealthiest countries would lead the recovery, particularly the United States, where the economy is now projected to grow by 6.4 percent this year.

The rollout of vaccines is a major reason for the rosier forecast in some countries, the I.M.F. said. President Biden said that he wanted states to make all adults eligible for vaccines by April 19, two weeks earlier than his previous deadline. In Britain, the Moderna vaccine was administered for the first time on Wednesday, making it the third vaccine available.

Still, the I.M.F. warned on Tuesday against an unequal recovery because of the uneven distribution of vaccines around the world with some lower-income countries not expected to be able to vaccinate their populations this year.

  • The yield on U.S. 10-year bonds dropped for a third straight day to 1.64 percent, the lowest in two weeks, before the Federal Reserve publishes the minutes from its mid-March meeting. Last month, policymakers released new economic projections that had the central bank’s interest rate near zero for several more years.

  • Oil price fell with futures for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, declining 0.5 percent to $59.06 a barrel.

  • Shares in Carnival, the cruise ship operator, rose nearly 5 percent in premarket trading after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said sailings could restart “hopefully, by midsummer,” Bloomberg reported. Carnival shares have already jumped 10 percent since the C.D.C. issued new guidance for the cruise industry on Friday.

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Business

Why there is a growth in boomer rock stars promoting their songs

Paul Simon performs on stage during the Nearness Of You benefit concert at Frederick P. Rose Hall, Jazz at Lincoln Center on January 20, 2015 in New York City.

Ilya S. Savenok | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

From Bob Dylan plugging his electric guitar on for the first time to Super Bowl commercials, there have always been moments in music history when die-hard fans accuse their idols of doing the unthinkable: selling out. But right now, “sellout” has a new connotation and it’s a booming market for both investors and superstar recording artists.

A wave of boomer rock icons are selling out their song catalogs. The steps of which Paul Simon took the last last week point to a clear truth about the intersection of art and money: music has always been a business where creative genius deserves to be richly rewarded. And it’s a business that is currently going through big changes from streaming and further disruption from the pandemic. The deals of Paul Simon, Bob Dylan, Neil Young (in Young’s case 50% of the shares) and Stevie Nicks (80% of the rights to their songs) highlight important trends in the entertainment industry, capital markets and wealth management.

Music publishers like Hipgnosis Songs Fund and Primary Wave Music, as well as conglomerates like BMG, Sony, Warner Music Group, and Vivendis Universal Music Group, are buying up top-notch song catalogs in big deals fueled by record low interest rates, with the belief that they will generate more lucrative returns in the future by selling the rights to these songs through entertainment platforms.

Pick up cheap fuel music deals

Larry Mestel, CEO of Primary Wave Music, the company that just acquired a controlling stake in the catalog of two-time Rock and Roll Hall of Fame candidate Stevie Nicks, told CNBC the economic environment that the coronavirus pandemic created have had a positive impact on companies looking to acquire large assets. These low interest rates make it easy to borrow money, and high returns have created a perfect opportunity for buyers.

“They talk about a low interest rate environment and they can get 7% to 9% … and then increase that through marketing and get returns for teens. This is a very attractive place for people to invest money,” he said.

Music catalogs have also proven recession-proof, and the pandemic has only increased the number of deals done as the music industry is going through a massive disruption caused by the closure of live venues and touring.

Streaming music is increasing

The deals also come at a time when streaming music – despite all the controversy and skepticism of the musicians themselves about getting a raw deal – has proven to be an economic juggernaut, at least for the record companies. In 2020, Goldman Sachs predicted that global music sales will hit $ 142 billion by the end of the decade. This corresponds to an increase of 84% compared to the level in 2019 of 77 billion US dollars and a streaming of 1.2 billion users by 2030, four times the level in 2019. Companies like Sony, who have bought Simon’s catalog, will benefit most from this , and Universal, who purchased Dylan’s songs.

Worldwide revenue from streaming music hit an all-time high in the industry last year (83% according to a recent report) and is also favoring the superstars. Spotify said its mission is “to enable one million creative artists to make a living from their art”. A recent analysis by the New York Times found that Spotify’s data generated only about 13,000 payments of $ 50,000 or more over the past year.

It’s not just streaming, however. Once purchased, the rights to larger catalogs of acts can be used for dubbing placements that license music for a variety of media including movies, television shows, advertising, and video games.

“From a publisher’s point of view, having the rights to a particular catalog that we can make available for dubbing is extremely valuable,” said Rebecca Valice, copyright and licensing manager for PEN Music Group. “A catalog can pitch its own just because of its legendary success.”

Appreciation of rock icons

The more recognizable a catalog is, the more valuable it becomes for businesses to buy and use films or television. The best catalogs “pay off over time,” she says, as syncing helps regain the money spent, “and then some over time”.

“I think the icons and legends are worth more than the other artists,” said Mestel. Primary Wave owns the catalogs of stars like Whitney Houston, Ray Charles, Frankie Valli and The Four Seasons.

Some famous boomer-era musicians have grappled with the situation the industry has put them in, like David Crosby, who said in a December tweet, “I’m selling mine too … I can’t work …” and streaming stole my record money … I have a family and a mortgage and I have to take care of them so it’s my only option … I’m sure the others feel the same way. “

In March, he sold his entire catalog to Irving Azoff’s Iconic Artists Group, which had recently also acquired a controlling stake in the Beach Boys’ intellectual property, including part of the song catalog.

“Given our current inability to work live, this deal is a boon to me and my family and I believe these are the best people to do it with,” Crosby said in a statement setting out the deal was announced.

Boomer Generation Estate Planning

For the musicians themselves, there is a megatrend: the estate planning needs of America’s richest generation. Boomer musicians age just like their fans. “Artists are getting older now so they can use cash and make estate plans,” says Mestel.

The downside, of course, can be the loss of control over an artist’s most valuable asset: the creative genius who made his career.

“These aging rock stars may want to cash out to care for their estates … but you lose some control of your brand and heritage depending on the protections you’ve put in place as part of the business,” said John Ozszajca , Musician and founder of Music Marketing Manifesto, a company that teaches musicians how to sell and market their music.

Crosby and Azoff have been friends for a long time, a point Azoff addressed in the deal’s disclosure.

It seems like everyone who has a relationship in the music business knows someone is trying to raise money.

Larry Mestel

CEO of Primary Wave Records

Some fans aren’t particularly happy to hear hits like Nicks’ “Edge of Seventeen” or Dylan’s “Like a Rolling Stone” selling cars and clothes – although Dylan has made several Super Bowl commercials for GM, IBM and his has songs featured in others alone – but choosing to sell catalogs can also help musicians avoid the posthumous litigation that they endured the estates of Tom Petty, Prince and Aretha Franklin.

BMG acquired the catalog interests of Nicks’ bandmate Mick Fleetwood of Fleetwood Mac earlier this year and in its announcement noted some stats that show that, as old as boomer acts, they can get a new lease on life from streaming viral hits . The Fleetwood Mac song ‘Dreams’ generated over 3.2 billion streams worldwide (in a period of eight weeks from September 24 to November 19, 2020) based on a video with a cranberry juice-loving fan and introduced a new generation who is used to TikTok to Fleetwood Mac. The band’s album “Rumors” peaked at number 6 on Billboard’s Streaming Songs chart 43 years after its release.

Dylan’s deal is the largest to date, valued at $ 300 million, although no sales price has been officially announced, and Universal said in only one publication that it was “the most significant music publishing deal of this century.”

Mestel believes the boom is not going to end.

“It seems like anyone who has a relationship in the music business knows that someone is trying to raise money. But that doesn’t mean they can identify assets to sell or even know what they’re doing.”

BMG and private equity giant KKR recently signed an agreement for a major acquisition of music rights. A senior executive told Rolling Stone, “We’re not chasing hits as of January 2021. We’re looking for a repertoire that has proven itself.” be a part of our life. “

KKR has made big music deals in the past and the trend of buying rights is not new, but the current boom is remarkable and fits in with the asset class appreciation that is happening in so many parts of the market as investors look for more avenues in their business Bring money to work. While the boomer deals are the biggest headlines, the latest acts are also seeing big paydays. Earlier this year, KKR bought a stake in OneRepublic’s Ryan Tedder catalog for a supposedly large sum.

Companies like Primary Wave are partnering with artists like Nicks to try to keep them as part of the deal and make that deal even better for them in the future, according to Mestel, who says many didn’t understand they were signing a contract partnership, sell a piece of their catalog, and that piece may become more valuable in the future than the 100% they previously owned.

“If everything goes right, [artists] Get the most of what they want to sell it for and it’s usually a win-win scenario for both buyers and sellers, “Valice said.