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World News

Bitcoin (BTC) tops $20,000 in ‘bearish rally’ as U.S. greenback falls

Bitcoin prices came under pressure in 2022 following the collapse of algorithmic stablecoin terraUSD and subsequent bankruptcy filings by lender Celsius and hedge fund Three Arrows Capital.

Nicolas Economous | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Bitcoin skyrocketed on Friday, breaking through $20,000 again as the US dollar weakened and stocks soared.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last trading 8.7% higher at $20,974.00 after falling to its lowest level since mid-June earlier in the week. Bitcoin briefly jumped above $21,000 earlier in the day.

Other digital coins were higher, including ether, which gained about 4%. The total market value of the cryptocurrency jumped back to over $1 trillion.

The recent uptrend for bitcoin was prompted by a slight weakening of the US dollar, which has staged a stunning rally this year. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of other currencies, was down about 1% on Friday morning.

US stock indexes closed higher on Thursday and futures were higher on Friday. Bitcoin is closely correlated with US markets, which often rise when stock indices do. Bitcoin also tends to rise when the dollar weakens.

Bitcoin has been trading in a range of around $18,000 to $24,000 since June and has failed to break this pattern.

Vijay Ayyar, vice president of corporate development and international at crypto exchange Luno, said Friday’s rally could be a “bearish retest” of the price of $22,500-$23,000.

“As such, unless it convincingly breaks through and closes above this level, I would still think this is a bearish rally that could see more reach and downside,” Ayyar said.

Bitcoin has taken a hit this year, and is more than 60% down from its record high in November, when the Federal Reserve aggressively hiked interest rates to dull risky assets like cryptocurrencies.

The crypto market has also been hit by failed projects and high-profile bankruptcies that have spread across the industry.

Ethereum “merge”, focus on inflation

Crypto markets have been anticipating a major network upgrade for Ethereum called Merge, which proponents say will make the blockchain more efficient.

The merger is expected to be completed by mid-September.

Ahead of the event, the price of Ether, Ethereum’s native token, has far outperformed Bitcoin.

Financial markets are also looking for signs of a slowdown in inflation when the US CPI is released next week. And investors are also watching signals on the Fed’s rate hike path.

On Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he was “strongly committed” to fighting inflation and hinted that more rate hikes could be on the way.

As inflation cools and Ethereum merger awaits, Yuya Hasegawa, a crypto market analyst at Japanese crypto exchange Bitbank, said Bitcoin could test $22,000 but also issued a warning.

“Given what some Fed members, including Chairman Powell, have said this week, too much optimism could be dangerous,” Hasegawa said in a note on Friday.

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World News

Bitcoin (BTC) value falls under $19,000 as crypto market drops under $1 trillion

Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight range of $18,000 to $24,000, keeping investors in the loop as to where the price is headed next. The crypto market has been plagued by a range of issues, from collapsed projects to bankruptcies.

Nurphoto | Getty Images

Bitcoin traded below $19,000 on Wednesday morning, hitting its lowest levels since June following a decline in global stock markets and continued US dollar strength.

The value of the overall cryptocurrency market also fell below $1 trillion as digital coins saw a sell-off across the board.

Bitcoin was trading at $18,812.36 as of 03:50 ET, according to CoinDesk, down more than 5%. Ether, which has far outpaced Bitcoin’s gains over the past few months, fell more than 8% to $1,518.59.

Central banks around the world are fighting rampant inflation by tightening monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve made a series of rate hikes totaling 2.25 percentage points. The markets expect further rate hikes.

The Fed’s tightening of monetary policy has strengthened the US dollar, which has weighed on risky assets. The US 10-year Treasury yield has also risen.

Bitcoin has traded in correlation to stocks, so when they fall, so does cryptocurrency generally.

“The macro environment also continues to prove challenging as the dollar continues to make highs. As we can see, this is affecting all risky assets,” Vijay Ayyar, vice president of corporate development and international at crypto exchange Luno, told CNBC.

“If we see the dollar turning back down, we should be able to push risky assets like bitcoin back up.”

The crypto market has been hit this year with nearly $2 trillion lost since its peak in November. Bitcoin is down about 60% from its record high of $68,990.90 set in November.

The sell-off was caused by a difficult environment for risky assets, as well as crypto-specific issues including collapsed projects and bankruptcies that have spread across the industry.

Ethereum merge in focus

Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range between $18,000 and $24,000 since June. Luno’s Ayyar said that “when a bottom is formed, bitcoin usually likes to pull back and test previous lows to see if they hold as support.”

He said that if Bitcoin does not drop below $17,500, the market is likely to consolidate within the $18,000-$24,000 range.

In the meantime, ether and so-called altcoins, i.e. alternative coins, have managed to rise further than Bitcoin. Ether has overtaken Bitcoin since both cryptocurrencies hit bottoms in June.

Ether is the native cryptocurrency on the Ethereum network. Ethereum is planning a huge upgrade this month — known as a merge — that proponents say will make the network more efficient.

“Ethereum hit yearly highs against Bitcoin pair in anticipation of merger,” Ayyar said. “As such, there has been much more interest and activity in the altcoin space as Bitcoin consolidates.”

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World News

How the U.S. turned the world’s new bitcoin mining hub

Well before China decided to kick out all of its bitcoin miners, they were already leaving in droves, and new data from Cambridge University shows they were likely headed to the United States.

The U.S. has fast become the new darling of the bitcoin mining world. It is the second-biggest mining destination on the planet, accounting for nearly 17% of all the world’s bitcoin miners as of April 2021. That’s a 151% increase from September 2020. 

“For the last 18 months, we’ve had a serious growth of mining infrastructure in the U.S.,” said Darin Feinstein, founder of Blockcap and Core Scientific. “We’ve noticed a massive uptick in mining operations looking to relocate to North America, mostly in the U.S.”

This dataset doesn’t include the mass mining exodus out of China, which led to half the world’s miners dropping offline, and experts tell CNBC that the U.S. share of the mining market is likely even bigger than the numbers indicate.

According to the newly-released Cambridge data, just before the Chinese mining ban began, the country accounted for 46% of the world’s total hashrate, an industry term used to describe the collective computing power of the bitcoin network. That’s a sharp decline from 75.5% in September 2019, and the percentage is likely much lower given the exodus underway now. 

“500,000 formerly Chinese miner rigs are looking for homes in the U.S,” said Marathon Digital’s Fred Thiel. “If they are deployed, it would mean North America would have closer to 40% of global hashrate by the end of 2022.”

The new mining mecca

America’s rising dominance is a simple case of luck meeting preparation. The U.S. has quietly been building up its hosting capacity for years.

Before bitcoin miners actually started coming to America, companies across the country made a gamble that eventually, if adequate infrastructure were in place, they would set up shop in the U.S. 

That gamble appears to be paying off.

When bitcoin crashed in late 2017 and the wider market entered a multi-year crypto winter, there wasn’t much demand for big bitcoin farms. U.S. mining operators saw their opening and jumped at the chance to deploy cheap money to build up the mining ecosystem in the States. 

“The large, publicly traded miners were able to raise capital to go make big purchases,” said Mike Colyer, CEO of digital currency company Foundry, which helped bring over $300 million of mining equipment into North America.

Companies like North American crypto mining operator Core Scientific kept building out hosting space all through the crypto winter, so that they had the capacity to plug in new gear, according to Colyer. 

“A majority of the new equipment manufactured from May 2020 through December 2020 was shipped to the U.S. and Canada,” he said.

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Alex Brammer of Luxor Mining, a cryptocurrency pool built for advanced miners, points out that maturing capital markets and financial instruments around the mining industry also played a big role in the industry’s quick ascent in the U.S. Brammer says that many of these American operators were able to start rapidly expanding once they secured financing by leveraging a multi-year track record of profitability and existing capital as collateral.

Covid also played a role.

Though the global pandemic shut down large swaths of the economy, the ensuing stimulus payments that proved a boon for U.S. mining companies.

“All the money printing during the pandemic meant that more capital needed to be deployed,” explained bitcoin mining engineer Brandon Arvanaghi. 

“People were looking for places to park their cash. The appetite for large-scale investments had never been bigger. A lot of that likely found its way into bitcoin mining operations in places outside of China,” continued Arvanaghi.

Making it in America

The seeds of the U.S. migration started back in early 2020, according to Colyer. Prior to Beijing’s sudden crackdown, China’s mining dominance had already begun to slip. 

Part of the appeal is that the U.S. ticks a lot of the boxes for these migrant miners.

“If you’re looking to relocate hundreds of millions of dollars of miners out of China, you want to make sure you have geographic, political, and jurisdictional stability. You also want to make sure there are private property right protections for the assets that you are relocating,” said Feinstein.

It also helps that the U.S. is also home to some of the cheapest sources of energy on the planet, many of which tend to be renewable. Because miners at scale compete in a low-margin industry, where their only variable cost is typically energy, they are incentivized to migrate to the world’s cheapest sources of power.

Thiel expects most new miners relocating to North America to be powered by renewables, or gas that is offset by renewable energy credits.

While Castle Island Ventures founding partner, Nic Carter, points out that U.S. mining isn’t wholly renewable, he does say that miners here are much better about selecting renewables and buying offsets. 

“The migration is definitely a net positive overall,” he said. “Hashrate moving to the U.S., Canada, and Russia will mean much lower carbon intensity.”

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World News

China cracks down on crypto-related providers in ongoing conflict on bitcoin

Budrul Chukrut | LightRakete | Getty Images

The Chinese central bank said Tuesday it had called for the closure of a company that was “suspected of providing software services for virtual currency transactions.” The statement issued by the Beijing Office of the People’s Bank of China also warned institutions not to offer other services related to virtual currency, including providing business premises or marketing.

The fight against digital currencies is nothing new to the authoritarian state.

In 2013, the country ordered third-party vendors to stop using Bitcoin. The Chinese authorities stopped selling tokens in 2017 and promised to continue targeting crypto exchanges in 2019.

But usually every time Beijing hit the crypto industry, Beijing has slacked off and the rules have eventually been relaxed.

This time, however, it seems to be different.

In May, China banned financial institutions and payment companies from offering crypto-related services. In June there were mass arrests in China of people suspected of shamefully using cryptocurrencies. In the same month, regulators increased pressure on banks and payment companies to stop providing cryptocurrency services, and Weibo, the Twitter of China, banned crypto-related accounts.

By July, half of the world’s bitcoin miners had gone dark after Beijing’s call for crackdown on bitcoin mining and trading.

“China’s government is doing everything possible to ensure that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies disappear from the Chinese financial systems and economy,” said Fred Thiel, CEO of Marathon Digital Holdings and a member of the Bitcoin Mining Council.

Why now?

So why did China essentially declare war on cryptocurrencies in 2021?

“We all wonder,” said Nic Carter, founding partner of Castle Island Ventures.

One theory suggests that it is part of a broader legislative and regulatory push ahead of the Chinese Communist Party’s centenary this year.

“They take action against all kinds of undesirable behavior,” Carter said.

Crypto has long been synonymous with crime on the mainland.

“The greatest Ponzi of all time in cryptocurrency was probably Plus Token, a Chinese project,” he said.

In this scheme, scammers tricked investors into $ 5.7 billion and arrested dozens. “You will remember that.”

Another theory is that China is clearing the runway for its own digital yuan, a central bank digital currency that has been in development since 2014.

“Part of it is to ensure the introduction of the Chinese central bank’s digital currency, and part of it is most likely to ensure that all economic activities can be captured by financial monitoring activities,” explained Thiel. The digital yuan could theoretically give the government more power to track spending in real time.

However, Carter argues that Bitcoin and the digital yuan are so different that they cannot really be viewed as direct competitors.

“That is certainly the most common reason given,” said Carter. “I just don’t know if I believe it. They are so different systems from each other. “

The most likely motivator, according to Carter, is that Beijing is trying to stem capital outflows via stablecoins and cryptocurrencies. “China stalling the flow of yuan to crypto is a big deal,” he said.

The price of bitcoin

When it comes to the price of Bitcoin, curbing all of China’s crypto retail “totally moves the needle,” Carter said.

“I think that actually explains a lot of the market weakness and sell-off,” he said. “The good news is that as the crackdown accelerated, Bitcoin stayed pretty flat, which suggests the market has digested that information.”

Thiel believes that the ban on Bitcoin and crypto will actually help Bitcoin in the long term.

“If China’s goal was to kill Bitcoin by shutting down 50% of its mining capacity and banning trading – plummeting its value to punish Chinese owners (a la Didi post-IPO and Ant Financial),” worked it not.
“Instead, Bitcoin has proven its resilience and trading has just moved overseas and miners elsewhere will fill the gap.”

Alyse Killeen, founder and managing partner of Bitcoin-focused venture firm Stillmark, points out that this whole conversation could be a moot point as a government’s ability to enforce a Bitcoin ban will continue to dwindle over time.

“I would expect this type of news to have less of an impact on Bitcoin’s exchange rate than it has in the past,” she said. “It is also true that this news has to some extent been inoculated by the industry – Bitcoin has been banned many times in many regions, yet adoption today is outperforming the Internet at a similar stage in its life cycle.”

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Politics

Bitcoin ETF ought to have been accredited some time in the past, SEC regulator Peirce says

Hester Peirce, Commissioner for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Center, listens during a House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington, DC, the United States, on Tuesday, September 24, 2019.

Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Hester Peirce is at a loss.

For years, the Securities and Exchange Commission, of which Peirce is a member, has rejected requests from national stock exchanges and financial companies to list securities that track the performance of the popular digital currency Bitcoin.

Back in the day – let’s say 10 years ago – concerns about possible market manipulation and liquidity might have made sense, but things have changed.

“This is probably the biggest and most frequently asked question I get: When will the SEC approve a Bitcoin publicly traded product?” Commissioner Peirce said in an interview with CNBC on Thursday.

“I thought if we had applied our standards as we applied them to other products, we would have already approved one or more of them,” she said. “With every day that goes by, the rationale we have used in the past for not being approved seems to be weakening.”

The SEC applies a “unique, elevated standard” to filings related to digital assets, it wrote in 2020. And it has argued that the agency is asking exchanges and potential ETF sponsors for assurances beyond what they do for traditional, stock-based demands products.

“People with a regulatory mindset say, ‘Oh wait, the market for Bitcoin looks a little different from the markets we’re used to,'” said Peirce on Thursday.

Now, she added, the Bitcoin market looks more like an established market with more institutional and established retail investors involved.

“So I think the markets have matured quite a bit,” said Peirce.

Renewed demands for a SEC-approved Bitcoin ETF come just weeks after the regulator announced its ruling on approving an application by VanEck to list shares of its Bitcoin Trust on the Chicago Board of Exchange’s BTZ Exchange move.

Regulators said in a letter dated June 16 that they would take additional time to seek comments from the public. In particular, the SEC asks investors and scientists for their opinion on whether Bitcoin ETFs could be susceptible to manipulation or whether Bitcoin itself is sufficiently distributed and therefore resistant to similar underhand manipulation.

But Peirce, a Republican named one of the SEC’s five commissioners by former President Donald Trump, has long denounced what she sees as double standards for Bitcoin products in her own agency.

Perhaps her sharpest objection came in a dissent in 2018, when she argued that the SEC should have approved an application by the Chicago Board of Exchange’s Bats BTZ Exchange to list and trade shares in the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust.

“By excluding the approval of cryptocurrency-based ETPs for the foreseeable future, the Commission is operating a performance regulation,” she wrote at the time. “Bitcoin is a new phenomenon and its long-term viability is uncertain. It can be successful, it can fail. However, the commission is not well positioned to assess the likelihood of either outcome for Bitcoin or other assets. “

Three years later, VanEck’s current filing – much like pending Bitcoin ETF filings from Fidelity, Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest, and a few others – is viewed by the industry as an SEC litmus test now led by a cryptocurrency expert, Chairman Gary Gensler becomes.

Former chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Gary Gensler, testifies at a US Senate Banking Committee hearing on systemic risk and market oversight on Capitol Hill in Washington on May 22, 2012.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

His appointment as head of the SEC by President Joe Biden, and his subsequent Senate confirmation, met with optimism from many in the crypto community as he is seen as a skilled hand in creating novel financial rules.

Gensler, who taught crypto courses at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is perhaps best known for his influential tenure as chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the Obama administration. There Gensler helped develop and introduce a new supervisory system for the swap market, which was largely unregulated before the financial crisis.

Even if the Democrat Gensler does not necessarily agree with the Trump-appointed Peirce on all issues, they can join a more proactive SEC on Bitcoin regulation.

Rejecting Bitcoin ETF applications not only carries the risk of double standards, it can also provide few, more dangerous alternatives to thousands of investors.

“The Complications of Not Approval [an application] get stronger because people are looking for other ways to do the same things that they would do with an exchange traded product, “she said.” They are looking for other types of products that are not that easy to get in and out of maybe look at companies that are somehow related to bitcoin or crypto in a broader sense. “

Bitcoin itself has taken a violent start to summer and has fainted its price by more than 40% in the past three months. Although it remains one of the most actively traded digital assets, some market watchers say Bitcoin is at a critical juncture.

“It looks like it might be preparing for a $ 30,000 retest, and that could be critical,” Art Cashin, director of NYSE floor operations at UBS, said Thursday. “If you crack $ 30,000, traders will see if there is a trapdoor, a cascade sell-off, to follow.”

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Its dizzying ups and downs even come as a growing number of companies and banks, including payment companies Square and PayPal, began to facilitate Bitcoin transactions.

Meanwhile, the Bank of New York Mellon announced in February that it would start funding Bitcoin, a major development given that it is both the oldest bank in the country and a leader in custody banking.

Late on Friday morning, Bitcoin rose 1.6% to $ 33,550.

Despite the volatile fluctuations in the price of the currency, Peirce remains convinced that a Bitcoin ETF is overdue.

It is not the SEC’s job to approve or deny requests based on the merits of the investment itself, she said Thursday, especially if the exchanges meet legal requirements to protect investors from fraud.

“Bitcoin is so decentralized now. The number of nodes involved in Bitcoin is large and the number of people who have an interest in keeping this work decentralized is very large, ”she said. “People should make their own decisions: if people don’t want to buy bitcoin because they think it’s tampered with, they shouldn’t buy bitcoin.”

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World News

Bitcoin mining problem drops after hashrate collapse in China

A bitcoin mine near Kongyuxiang, Sichuan, China on August 12, 2016.

Paul Ratje | The Washington Post | Getty Images

It just got a lot easier and more profitable to mine for Bitcoin.

The world has known for months that more than half of the world’s bitcoin miners would go dark if China cracked down on mining. Now that it has happened, the Bitcoin algorithm has adjusted accordingly to ensure miners’ productivity doesn’t drop any further from a cliff.

This adjustment – which went into effect early Saturday morning – also means more money will be available to the bitcoin miners who stay online.

“This will be a source of income for miners,” said bitcoin mining engineer Brandon Arvanaghi.

“They suddenly have a significantly larger piece of the pie, which means they are making more Bitcoin every day.”

Mining made easy

A bitcoin miner runs a program on a computer to try to solve a puzzle before someone else does. The solution to this puzzle completes a block, a process that both creates new bitcoins and updates the digital ledger to keep track of all bitcoin transactions.

China has long been the epicenter of bitcoin miners, with previous estimates suggesting 65 to 75% of the world’s bitcoin mining took place there, but government-led crackdown has effectively banned the country’s crypto miners.

For the first time in the history of the Bitcoin network, we have completely stopped mining in a specific geographic region that affected more than 50% of the network, “said Darin Feinstein, Founder of Blockcap and Core Scientific.

More than 50% of the hashrate – the collective computing power of miners worldwide – has fallen off the network since its market high in May.

Fewer people mining means fewer blocks are being solved every day. It usually takes around 10 minutes to complete a block, but Feinstein told CNBC that the Bitcoin network has slowed to 14 to 19-minute block times.

Precisely for this reason, Bitcoin recalibrates and resets every 2016 blocks or roughly every two weeks about how difficult it is for miners to mine. On Saturday, the Bitcoin code automatically made mining easier by about 28% – a historically unprecedented decline for the network – and thus set the block times back to the optimal 10-minute window.

According to Mike Colyer, CEO of digital currency company Foundry, the Bitcoin algorithm is programmed to deal with an increase or decrease in mining machines. “It’s a self-regulating market that doesn’t need an outside committee to determine what to do. This is a very strong concept, ”he said.

Fewer competitors and fewer difficulties mean that any miner with a machine connected will see a significant increase in profitability and more predictable revenue.

“All bitcoin miners have the same economics and mine on the same network, so both public and private miners will see revenue growth,” said Kevin Zhang, former chief mining officer at Greenridge Generation, the first major US power plant to begin with mining on a grand scale behind the counter.

Assuming a fixed cost of electricity, Zhang estimates sales of $ 29 per day for those using the latest generation Bitmain miner, up from $ 22 per day before the change. Longer-term, although mining income can fluctuate with the price of the coin, Zhang also noted that mining revenues were only 17% lower from the Bitcoin price high in April, while the price of the coin was down about 50%.

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“We anticipate a time of much higher mining profitability for Compass Mining customers,” said Whit Gibbs, CEO and founder of Compass, a bitcoin mining service provider. “We assume miners are about 35% more profitable.”

Blockcap’s Feinstein agrees. “We expect an increase in sales and profits for the foreseeable future. This was an unexpected gift to the network, not only in terms of revenue, but also in terms of decentralization and sustainable energy metrics.”

Although the difficulty reduction benefits all miners, those who use new generation equipment benefit the most.

Feinstein tells CNBC that most of the devices in China that got shut down were old generation devices that are inefficient and run on much lower profit margins.

Six month increase

It is difficult to predict how long the hashrate deficit will last. Barbour said it was entirely possible that Beijing could simply reverse its policies and this could only be a short-term hiatus.

If not, most mining crypto experts agree that it will take anywhere from six to 15 months for all of the idle and displaced mining hardware to migrate. “It will be a long time before the surplus finds a home,” said Barbour.

Gibbs believes the miners should generate higher revenues for at least the remainder of 2021.

“Every day, the Chinese miners around the world look for places where they can turn their machines on again. Space is very limited right now, ”said Colyer.

Part of the problem, according to Feinstein, is that even before mining stopped in China, there was a lack of infrastructure to accommodate the new-generation miners deployed monthly by Beijing-based manufacturer Bitmain.

Now that the market is inundated with an oversupply of used mining rigs, it’s hard to say how quickly countries can absorb the influx of equipment.

“Some mining companies built everything and were just waiting for these ASICs to plug in, which would only take a few days,” explained Arvanaghi.

“Others may need to build containers, expand warehouses, or increase their electricity capacity. We won’t see the hash rate hit what it used to be overnight, but we’ll see it rise again over the next few months, ”he continued.

Of all the possible destinations for this gear, the U.S. appears particularly well positioned to absorb this stray hashrate. CNBC is told that major U.S. mining operators are already signing contracts to patrol some of these homeless Bitmain miners.

Bitcoin mining in the US is booming and venture capital is flowing so they are ready to take advantage of miner migration, Arvanaghi told CNBC.

“Many US bitcoin miners who were funded when the price of bitcoin began to rise in November and December 2020 meant they were expanding their power capacity when the Chinese mining ban went into effect,” he said. “It’s great timing.”

However, Barbour believes that much smaller players in the US residential areas also have a chance to catch these surplus miners.

“I think this is a signal that bitcoin mining will inevitably be more distributed in the future,” said Barbour. “Fewer mega mines like the 100 megawatts we see in Texas and more small mines in small commercial and ultimately residential areas. It’s much more difficult for a politician to close a mine in a garage. “

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World News

Bitcoin sell-off intensifies because the crypto falls under $30,000 degree, turns unfavorable for the 12 months

The slump for bitcoin intensified on Tuesday as the leading cryptocurrency fell below the key $30,000 level and turned negative for 2021.

At its low of the day, Bitcoin fell more than 11% to about $28,911, below the $29,026 level where it ended 2020, according to Coin Metrics.The cryptocurrency was last down more than 9% to $29,410.30, according to Coin Metrics.

Technical analysts had been watching the $30,000 level as a key support level on the charts after the cryptocurrency had fallen to near that low during its May crash. The analysts, who study charts to make buying and selling decisions, believe the next level to watch for support could now be as low as $20,000.

Now that it is approaching $29,000, the price of bitcoin is threatening to turn negative for the year.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that bitcoin could still rebound after Tuesday’s move but there was significant downside to the next support level.

“$30,000, we’ll see if it holds on the day. We might plunge below it for a while and close above it. If it’s really breached, $25,000 is the next big level of support,” Novogratz said. “Listen, I’m less happy than I was at $60,000 but I’m not nervous.”

Bitcoin has been struggling to reclaim its highs from earlier in the quarter. It fell dramatically in May following some market-moving tweets by Elon Musk about bitcoin-related environmental concerns, and then even further in early June around fears of the cryptocurrency’s use in the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack.

It’s been on a rollercoaster ride since then, battered by a stream of headlines out of China, where regulators have imposed new restrictions on energy-intensive mining and ordered financial institutions like Alipay to stop doing business with crypto companies. The price briefly touched $40,000 last week and fell again Monday.

With Tuesday’s losses, bitcoin has slid about 54% from its all-time high of more than $64,000 in mid-April, taking other cryptocurrencies along with it. Ether fell 8% and dogecoin is dropping more than 16%.

Significant pullbacks have happened before in the cryptocurrency market, with bitcoin falling about 80% from its late 2017 highs at one point. Professional crypto investors have warned that the space should continue to be volatile in the years ahead.

“The only guarantee with the cryptocurrency space is volatility and obviously, that’s what we have right now,” Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton told CNBC. “It’s not new, we’ve had days like this before, it’s just a matter of navigating through this noise.”

Crypto investment product providers, such as CoinShares, Grayscale and Bitwise, are experiencing their sixth consecutive weeks of outflows, though some providers are seeing inflows, according to CoinShares. Bearish sentiment is more focused on bitcoin, with outflows for the week totaling $89 million.

Novogratz also noted that despite previous pullbacks, crypto market infrastructure is only becoming more mature, which has helped usher in more institutional support over the past year, with major hedge fund managers, pension funds and banks jumping into crypto, while registered investment advisors seek ways to get clients exposure to cryptocurrencies in ways that are compatible with their current workflow and wait for custody banks to introduce crypto services.

The price of bitcoin rose nearly 500% between mid-September of last year and its April peak. Even with the recent decline, the cryptocurrency is still up about 150% over the past 12 months.

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World News

Bitcoin (BTC) worth drops on China crypto mining crackdown

A bitcoin mine near Kongyuxiang, Sichuan, China on August 12, 2016.

Paul Ratje | The Washington Post | Getty Images

Bitcoin sank Monday on reports that China has intensified its crackdown on cryptocurrency mining.

The world’s largest digital currency fell 7% to a price of $32,801 Monday morning, dropping below $33,000 for the first time since June 8, according to data from Coin Metrics. It was last trading at $32,964 as of 5 a.m. ET. Smaller rivals like ether and XRP also tumbled, down 8% and 7% respectively.

Many bitcoin mines in Sichuan were shuttered Sunday after authorities in the southwestern Chinese province ordered a halt to crypto mining, according to a report from the Communist Party-backed newspaper Global Times. More than 90% of China’s bitcoin mining capacity is estimated to be shut down, the paper said.

Bloomberg and Reuters also reported on the move from Sichuan authorities. It follows similar developments in China’s Inner Mongolia and Yunnan regions, as well as calls from Beijing to stamp out crypto mining amid worries over its massive energy consumption.

This appears to have led to a significant decline in bitcoin’s hash rate — or processing power — which has fallen sharply in the last month, according to data from Blockchain.com. An estimated 65% of global bitcoin mining is done in China.

Bitcoin’s network is decentralized, meaning it doesn’t have any central party or middleman to approve transactions or generate new coins. Instead, the blockchain is maintained by so-called miners who race to solve complex math puzzles using purpose-built computers to validate transactions. Whoever wins that race is rewarded with bitcoin.

This power-intensive process has led to growing concerns over the potential environmental harm of bitcoin, with everyone from Tesla CEO Elon Musk to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen raising the alarm. China, where most bitcoin mining is concentrated, relies heavily on coal power. Last month, a coal mine in the Xinjiang region flooded and shut down, taking nearly a quarter of bitcoin’s hash rate offline.

However, miners in China often migrate to places like Sichuan, which are rich in hydropower, in the rainy season. And some industry efforts have been launched — including the Bitcoin Mining Council and the Crypto Climate Accord — in an effort to reduce cryptocurrencies’ carbon footprint.

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Health

Bitcoin 2021 attendees report Covid instances after coming back from Miami

Some of the 12,000 attendees who flew to Miami for the largest Bitcoin event in history last weekend have started testing positive for Covid.

Bitcoin 2021 attracted crypto enthusiasts from around the world to the Mana Wynwood Convention Center in the arts and entertainment district of Miami. For three days, conference attendees huddled in overcrowded lecture halls, happy and hugging. It was the first major conference since the pandemic began, and many attendees said they were relieved to be among colleagues sharing messages and updates.

There was no mask requirement and no proof of compulsory vaccination for participation. Covid was just a topic of conversation in connection with everyone’s excitement about being on the other side of the pandemic.

This is of course until some conference participants said on Twitter that they had tested positive for the corona virus.

For full disclosure, I attended the show after receiving two doses of the Moderna vaccine this spring. Vaccination isn’t a 100% guarantee of immunity, but at the moment I have no symptoms. A lot of my conversations with Uber and Lyft drivers started with a discussion about vaccination together.

It remains to be seen whether the conference will ultimately be billed as a super spreader event.

It is unclear how many people are affected and whether the city of Miami had a contingency plan for such an outcome. The mayor’s office and conference organizers did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

On Tuesday, Florida said it would no longer report daily Covid cases and deaths as vaccinations increase and move into the “next phase” of the pandemic. Florida reported an average of eight new cases per 100,000 residents last week, well below its pandemic high of 84 per 100,000, according to Johns Hopkins University.

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Politics

Bitcoin Is Truly Traceable, Pipeline Investigation Reveals

When Bitcoin hit the market in 2009, fans touted the cryptocurrency as a secure, decentralized, and anonymous way to conduct transactions outside of the traditional financial system.

Criminals, often operating in hidden areas of the internet, flocked to Bitcoin to do illegal business without revealing their name or location. The digital currency quickly became just as popular with drug dealers and tax evaders as it was with contrarian libertarians.

But this week’s revelation that federal officials recovered most of the Bitcoin ransom paid in the Colonial Pipeline’s recent ransomware attack revealed a fundamental misconception about cryptocurrencies: they’re not as difficult to track as cybercriminals think they are.

On Monday, the Justice Department announced that it had tracked 63.7 of the 75 bitcoins – about $ 2.3 million of the $ 4.3 million – that Colonial Pipeline paid to the hackers when the ransomware attack took place the company’s computer systems had shut down, leading to fuel shortages and an increase in revenue for gasoline prices. Officials have since declined to provide any further details on how they precisely recovered the bitcoin, which was fluctuating in value.

Yet for the growing community of cryptocurrency enthusiasts and investors, the fact that federal investigators tracked the ransom as it moved through at least 23 different electronic accounts from DarkSide, the hacking collective, before accessing an account, showed that law enforcement grew with the industry.

That’s because the same properties that make cryptocurrencies attractive to cyber criminals – the ability to instantly transfer money without a bank’s permission – can be used by law enforcement agencies to track and track criminals’ funds at the speed of the internet confiscate.

Bitcoin is also traceable. While digital currency can be created, moved and stored outside the jurisdiction of a government or financial institution, every payment is recorded on a permanent fixed ledger called a blockchain.

This means that all Bitcoin transactions are open. The Bitcoin ledger can be viewed by anyone connected to the blockchain.

“It’s digital breadcrumbs,” said Kathryn Haun, former federal prosecutor and investor in the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. “There’s a path that law enforcement can follow pretty well.”

Ms. Haun added that the speed with which the Justice Department confiscated most of the ransom was “groundbreaking” precisely because of the use of cryptocurrencies by hackers. In contrast, she said, obtaining records from banks often requires months or years of searching through paperwork and red tape, especially when those banks are overseas based.

Given the public nature of the ledger, cryptocurrency experts said, all law enforcement agencies need to do is figure out how to connect the criminals to a digital wallet that holds the bitcoins. To do this, the authorities have likely focused on what is known as a “public key” and a “private key”.

A public key is the sequence of numbers and letters that Bitcoin holders use to transact with others, while a “private key” is used to keep a wallet secure. Tracking down a user’s transaction history was a matter of determining which public key they controlled, authorities said.

The seizure of the assets then required obtaining the private key, which is more difficult. It is unclear how federal agents got hold of DarkSide’s private key.

Justice Department spokesman Marc Raimondi declined to say more about how the FBI confiscated DarkSide’s private key. According to court documents, investigators accessed the password for one of the hackers’ Bitcoin wallets, but did not do exactly how.

The FBI didn’t seem to be relying on any underlying flaw in blockchain technology, cryptocurrency experts said. The most likely culprit was good old-fashioned policing.

Federal agents could have confiscated DarkSide’s private keys by infiltrating a human spy into DarkSide’s network, hacking computers that stored their private keys and passwords, or forcing the service holding their private wallet to do so to surrender them by warrant or other means.

“If they get their hands on the keys, they can be confiscated,” said Jesse Proudman, founder of Makara, a cryptocurrency investment site. “Just relying on a blockchain does not solve this fact.”

The FBI has partnered with several companies that specialize in tracking cryptocurrencies across digital accounts, according to officials, court documents and the companies. Startups with names like TRM Labs, Elliptic, and Chainalysis, tracking cryptocurrency payments and exposing possible criminal activity, have emerged as law enforcement agencies and banks seek to forestall financial crime.

Their technology tracks blockchains in search of patterns that suggest illegal activity. It’s similar to how Google and Microsoft tamed email spam by identifying and then blocking accounts that distribute email links across hundreds of accounts.

“Cryptocurrency allows us to use these tools to track funds and financial flows along the blockchain in ways we could never do with cash,” said Ari Redbord, general manager of legal at TRM Labs, a blockchain intelligence company who sells its analytics software to law enforcement agencies and banks. Previously, he was senior financial intelligence and terrorism advisor at the Treasury Department.

Several longtime cryptocurrency enthusiasts said recovering much of the Bitcoin ransom is a win for the legitimacy of digital currencies. That would help change Bitcoin’s image as a criminal playground, they said.

“The public is slowly being shown on a case-by-case basis that Bitcoin is good for law enforcement and bad for crime – the opposite of what many have believed in the past,” said Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise Asset Management, a cryptocurrency company. Investment company.

In the last few months, cryptocurrencies have become more and more mainstream. Companies like PayPal and Square have expanded their cryptocurrency services. Coinbase, a startup that enables people to buy and sell cryptocurrencies, went public in April and is now valued at $ 47 billion. Over the weekend, a Bitcoin conference in Miami drew more than 12,000 attendees, including Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and former boxer Floyd Mayweather Jr.

As more and more people use Bitcoin, most of them access the digital currency in a way that mirrors a traditional bank, through a centralized intermediary such as a crypto exchange. In the United States, anti-money laundering and identity verification laws require such services to know who their customers are, thereby establishing a link between identity and account. Customers must upload an official ID when registering.

Ransomware attacks have taken a close look at unregulated crypto exchanges. Cyber ​​criminals are flocking to thousands of high risk areas in Eastern Europe that do not obey these laws.

After the attack on the Colonial Pipeline, several financial leaders proposed a ban on cryptocurrencies.

“We can live in a cryptocurrency world or a world without ransomware, but we cannot have both,” Lee Reiners, executive director of the Global Financial Markets Center at Duke Law School, wrote in the Wall Street Journal.

Cryptocurrency experts said the hackers could have tried to make their Bitcoin accounts even more secure. Some cryptocurrency holders go to great lengths to store their private keys for everything connected to the Internet in what is known as a “cold wallet”. Some people remember the sequence of numbers and letters. Others write them down on paper, although they can be obtained through search warrants or police work.

“The only way to preserve the truly invulnerable characteristics of the asset class is to memorize the keys and not have them written down anywhere,” said Mr Proudman.

Justice Department Mr Raimondi said the ransom seizure through the Colonial Pipeline was the federal prosecutor’s latest stabbing operation to recover illegally acquired cryptocurrency. He said the department had “many hundreds of millions of dollars of seizures of non-hosted cryptocurrency wallets” used for criminal activity.

In January, the Justice Department disrupted another ransomware group, NetWalker, which was using ransomware to extort money from communities, hospitals, law enforcement agencies and schools.

As part of that sting, the department received approximately $ 500,000 of the cryptocurrency from NetWalker that was collected from victims of their ransomware.

“While these individuals believe they are acting anonymously in the digital space, we have the ability and tenacity to identify and prosecute these actors to the fullest extent of the law and confiscate their criminal proceeds,” said Maria Chapa Lopez, then US Attorney for the Middle East District of Florida said when the case became known.

In February, the Justice Department announced that it had arrest warrants for the seizure of nearly $ 2 million in cryptocurrencies that North Korean hackers had stolen and debited from two different cryptocurrency exchanges.

Last August, the department also unsealed a complaint against North Korean hackers who stole $ 28.7 million in cryptocurrencies from a cryptocurrency exchange and then laundered the proceeds through Chinese cryptocurrency laundering services. The FBI traced the funds to 280 cryptocurrency wallets and their owners.

In the end, “cryptocurrencies are actually more transparent than most other forms of value transfer,” said Madeleine Kennedy, a spokeswoman for Chainalysis, the start-up that tracks payments in cryptocurrencies. “Certainly more transparent than cash.”