Tag: bigger

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Health

The Delta Variant Is the Symptom of a Larger Menace: Vaccine Refusal

The Delta Variant Is the Symptom of a Bigger Threat: Vaccine Refusal

Of the 39 percent of unvaccinated adults, around half say they are not vaccinated at all. But even within this group, some say they would do it if asked to.

Understand the state of vaccine mandates in the United States

Some are hesitant and may come with the right conviction from people they trust, while still others plan to get vaccinated but say they just didn’t stand a chance.

Politics is only a driver for some of these people, noted Dr. Richard Besser, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In New Jersey, where he lives, rates fluctuate dramatically due to socio-economic factors. In the predominantly white Princeton, 75 percent of adults are vaccinated, compared to 45 percent in Trenton, only 22 kilometers away, which is very black and Latin American.

“Both are strong democratic areas so it’s really important to break things down and address the issues that are hindering vaccination progress in every segment of the unvaccinated population,” said Dr. Better.

However, there is no doubt that the political divide is playing a role in the rising infection rates. From the start, vaccinations in counties that voted for Donald J. Trump have lagged behind those in counties that voted for Joseph R. Biden, and the gap has only widened – from two percentage points in April to now almost 12 points, according to a recent survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation.

According to another poll nationwide, 86 percent of Democrats got at least one shot, compared with 52 percent of Republicans. Even the national goal of getting 70 percent of adults vaccinated by July 4th somehow became “Biden’s goal,” said Dr. Nahid Bhadelia, director of the Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases Policy and Research at Boston University.

“Suddenly, even getting out of the pandemic became a left-versus-right problem.”

As of May, fewer than half of Republicans in the House of Representatives are vaccinated, compared with 100 percent of Democrats in Congress. For months, several Republican lawmakers, including Senators Ron Johnson from Wisconsin and Rand Paul from Kentucky, as well as conservative news commentators like Tucker Carlson, have voiced their skepticism about vaccines.

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Business

A dangerous bitcoin purchase in greater bull market than the cryptocurrency

A risky bitcoin buy in bigger bull market than the cryptocurrency

All commodity markets have their leverage investment bets. Crude oil has wild exploration and production companies; Gold and precious metals let mining do the dirty work in the ground. A future commodity, bitcoin, is no exception to the rule that when there is a scarce resource in the world to be exploited and investors increasingly value it, miners will make their claim to the riches.

The recent wins on what is possibly the riskiest Bitcoin bet of all led Leeor Shimron, Vice President, Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, to take a look at the “digital gold rush” in Bitcoin miners trading.

These mining companies are fairly new and young, they lack a track record, and some came to market through “detours” – and some of the largest, like Riot Blockchain, were scrutinized by regulators in their early days. They have also faced losses, but Shimon found they hit over $ 1 billion in market cap after investing heavily in the hardware and facilities that helped them in the current Bitcoin during the Bitcoin downturn -Bull market cycle “make it big”.

High beta, high risk bitcoin trading

Shimron described the miners in a note last week to customers who expressed interest in the rising stocks as a “high beta play” for Bitcoin. During the recent bull run for the cryptocurrency, which saw Bitcoin jump 900%, the average return among the largest publicly traded miners was 5,000%, according to his analysis.

Bitcoin miners form the core backbone of the Bitcoin blockchain, according to Shimron, as they “burn electricity to make computer-generated guesses to solve cryptographic puzzles” and generate income in the form of mined Bitcoin. While the bitcoin is being mined, the miners sell the assets to cover their expenses. Many are also choosing to keep some of their mined bitcoin on their corporate balance sheet, a trend that is gaining traction among the digitally-minded, disruptive CEO class in the broader market, like Jack Dorsey at Square and Elon Musk at Tesla . Musk just added “Technoking” to his leadership title, and Tesla’s CFO recently added “Master of Coin” to his. North American mining company Marathon Digital Holdings recently announced that it had purchased $ 150 million worth of Bitcoin to help keep it on its balance sheet.

The largest publicly traded mining companies the Fundstrat analyst examined include the two Nasdaq-listed companies Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings, as well as the two over-the-counter market stocks Hive Blockchain and Hut 8.

In the past year, Bitcoin miners clearly outperformed Bitcoin, a momentum that Fundstrat Global Advisors said will continue as the bull market progresses but could turn violently downward with any correction.

Fundstrat Global Advisors

Shimron’s analysis shows that the beta that these Bitcoin mining companies have generates a return of 2.5% for every 1% movement of the cryptocurrency. While there isn’t enough historical data to draw firm conclusions, the miners’ performance is clearly tied to the price of bitcoin and their trading profile amplifies the up and down movements, he said.

It’s a “notoriously competitive industry,” as Shimron puts it, where the ability to be profitable may be due to cheap electricity and access to specialized mining hardware. As Bitcoin prices rise, “miners are building new oil rigs or upgrading their hardware with more powerful and efficient machines.”

Marathon recently closed a $ 170 million deal for 70,000 Bitmain S-19 ASIC miners that, when fully deployed later this year, will increase its mining output to 103,000 machines.

These high costs of doing business in Bitcoin mining result in low or negative free cash flow and subdued earnings, writes Shimron. However, for the time being, the mining companies have captured the growth of the current Bitcoin bull cycle due to their spending. (You also saw wild trading in the 2017 bitcoin boom.)

Now they have also caught the attention of some of the latest forces in the market, as a recent Bloomberg article on the Bitcoin miners discussion on the WallStreetBets forum on Reddit noted, which fueled the mania in GameStop stocks.

“For investors seeking exposure to miners, this beta is a great opportunity in the midst of a roaring bull market. … There are seizures and setbacks, but we still have plenty of room to grow here,” Shimron said in an interview with CNBC.

Investing in Bitcoin in 2021 and beyond

It is the broader cryptocurrency bull market that has fueled the miners, and Shimon believes it can continue in 2021, driven by macroeconomic and demographic factors. Fears of inflation will prop up bitcoin prices, and even with the recent pressure on returns from the 10-year Treasury Department that can impact cryptocurrency like tech stocks, the Fed signals suggest that the central bank intends to maintain its cautious policy in place until 2023.

Another driving force is the continued adoption of new digital technologies and digital assets among younger investors. “You can see that younger people are interested in Bitcoin and other digital currencies as opposed to gold and commodities, and that speaks for a demographic shift. … It is not crazy for them to interact with money purely digitally,” he said opposite CNBC.

Last week, Morgan Stanley became the first major Wall Street bank to offer Bitcoin to its wealthy clients. Due to the risks involved, access to customers with at least USD 2 million was restricted.

There are already other avenues into the crypto market than the underlying currencies, such as the exchanges that trade coins and that will soon be available to more investors. Coinbase was recently valued at $ 68 billion in the private market and plans to list directly on the Nasdaq.

Waiting for a Bitcoin ETF in the US

There are three Bitcoin ETFs in Canada, and at some point a Bitcoin ETF may be available in the US. The most recent attempt at the Securities and Exchange Commission was filed by VanEck ETFs in mid-March, but investors don’t have high hopes that the SEC will soon approve a Bitcoin fund. You’re looking elsewhere for cryptocurrency investment ideas that go beyond buying Bitcoin itself.

Shimon, who ran an early cryptocurrency and blockchain venture fund prior to joining Fundstrat, said he viewed the miners as the foundation of the crypto space. “The top companies will stay here,” he said, citing the economies of scale in investing in equipment that newer entrants will face tougher.

After taking the “smart move” during the Bitcoin bear market to build operations, the current supply chain bottlenecks in the technology sector caused by Covid may further aid these miners’ positioning after the capital they have already invested in special purpose machinery for space.

However, like many traders and hedge funds with gold miners and small cap oil explorers, he tends to trade the bitcoin miners in a bull market run rather than viewing them as long term investments.

The performance of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF compared to the VanEck ETF is an index of gold mining companies in recent history.

Shimron continues to prefer Bitcoin as a long-term investment, as well as any ETF that has ultimately been approved by the SEC for US investors. “It is only a matter of time before the SEC approves a Bitcoin ETF,” he said. “When a BTC ETF hits the market, the fees are low and it’s the safest and easiest way to get into Bitcoin using traditional rails,” he said.

The miners have been criticized for the enormous amount of electricity required to run Bitcoin, but Shimron’s view depends on financial data and market performance. (He says there is also much to be criticized about the impact of the fiat monetary system on the world.)

“It’s pretty clear that the US dollar as a global reserve currency is on its last legs and not disappearing anytime soon, but we are in the later stages of the US dollar as reserve currency and decentralized is the next stage.”

While Bitcoin mining stocks pose too high a risk for most investors, he is confident that everyone should be talking about the cryptocurrency world. “This is where everything runs. Finances were the last holdover that the internet didn’t touch,” said Shimron.

Categories
World News

China’s growing older inhabitants is greater downside than ‘one-child’ coverage: Economists

China's aging population is bigger problem than 'one-child' policy: Economists

A medical worker takes care of a newborn baby lying in an incubator at Jingzhou Maternity & Child Healthcare Hospital on the eve of Chinese New Year, the year of the ox, on February 11, 2021 in Jingzhou, Hubei Province.

Huang Zhigang | Visual China Group | Getty Images

BEIJING – China’s decade-long one-child policy attracted renewed attention in recent weeks after authorities gave mixed signals as to whether they were any closer to lifting limits on the number of children people can have.

The authorities have withdrawn the controversial one-child policy in recent years to give people the opportunity to have two children. However, economists say other changes are needed to spur growth as births decline and China’s population ages rapidly.

“There are two ways to address this. One way is to loosen birth control. Something (that) helps on the verge, but even if you loosen control completely it is likely to be difficult to reverse the trend,” said Zhiwei Zhang, Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

“The other way to deal with it from an economic policy perspective is to make industry more dependent on other sectors,” he said.

China’s economy has relied heavily on industries such as manufacturing, which require large amounts of cheap labor. However, rising wages make Chinese factories less attractive, while workers need higher skills to make the country more innovative.

The bigger problem for China is that an aging population feeds into an existing problem: slower labor productivity growth, said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Natixis’ chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region. She watches whether China will grow faster in capital-intensive sectors, which can be attributed more to investments in automation.

Births will fall by 15% in 2020

China introduced its one-child policy in the late 1970s to curb population growth. According to official figures, the country had doubled in size from more than 500 million people in the 1940s to over 1 billion in the 1980s.

Over the next 40 years, the population grew by only 40% – to 1.4 billion, more than four times the US today.

I don’t think the easing of birth policies could have much economic repercussions as the slow population growth is not due to political restrictions, not in the last 20 years.

Dan Wang |

Chief Economist Hang Seng China.

Similar to other major economies, high housing and education costs in China have deterred people from having children in recent years.

Despite a change in 2016 that allowed families to have two children, births fell for the fourth year in a row in 2020, falling 15% to 10 million, according to analysis of a public safety report.

“In general, I don’t think the birth policy easing could have a big economic impact as the slow population growth is not due to political restrictions, not in the last 20 years,” said Dan Wang, Shanghai chief economist at Hang Seng China.

She said, based on the experience of other countries, the most effective policy for a country the size of China would be to accept more migrants, but that would be an unlikely change in the short term.

Other options that policymakers are already pursuing include raising the retirement age, improving the skills of the existing workforce through more education, and using more machines and artificial intelligence to replace human workers, Wang said.

Policy changes are only a matter of time

The one-child policy received renewed attention last month when the National Health Commission issued a statement authorizing research into the economic benefits of lifting restrictions on birth in a northeastern region. The three-province area known as Dongbei has economic problems and the lowest birth rates in the country.

Two days later, the commission issued another statement saying that, despite much online speculation, the news was not a test for the complete repeal of family planning policy.

However, according to economists polled by CNBC, lifting the limits is likely only a matter of time.

Yi Fuxian, critic of the one-child policy and author of “Big Country with an Empty Nest,” said he expected a decision by the end of the year after China released census results once in a decade in April.

Challenges posed by China’s aging population

The Chinese government has also stated that implementing a strategy to respond to an aging population will be a priority for its next five-year plan, which will be formally approved at a parliamentary session starting this week.

Meanwhile, the generations born before the one-child policy was implemented in the 1980s are becoming a significant segment. Over the next 10 years, 123.9 million more people will be entering the age bracket of 55 and over. This is the largest demographic increase among any age group, according to Morgan Stanley.

This demographic shift will create its own economic demands, said Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the economic research department at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges in Beijing.

Liu said more workers are needed to care for the elderly, while retirement communities and other infrastructures tailored to an older population will see greater demand.

Categories
Politics

Trump calls for greater stimulus checks in Covid reduction invoice

Trump demands bigger stimulus checks in Covid relief bill

United States President Donald Trump attends a medal ceremony in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on December 3, 2020.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

In a stunning tweet Tuesday night, President Donald Trump called the US $ 900 billion Covid Aid Bill passed by Congress an inappropriate “disgrace” and called on lawmakers to make a number of changes to the measure, including larger direct payments to individuals and families.

Trump also suggested that his administration could be the “next administration,” despite losing to President-elect Joe Biden. The relief bill passed by Congress on Monday was partially negotiated by a senior Trump administration official, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Trump himself has not been in the talks since before the elections.

The president’s tweet, which included a video discussing what he thought the law’s many shortcomings are, including overseas funding, came less than 24 hours after the Senate passed the measure. The foreign aid provision is part of a $ 1.4 trillion move to maintain government funding that has been combined with the Covid Relief Act.

Trump did not threaten a veto in the video and was expected to sign the laws along with the bill to keep the government open. The legislation passed both Houses of Congress with a majority with a veto-safe majority.

“I’m asking Congress to change this bill and increase the ridiculously low $ 600 to $ 2,000 or $ 4,000 for a couple,” Trump said in the video.

In another twist, House spokeswoman Nancy Pelosi, one of Trump’s political arch enemies, agreed to his request for $ 2,000 in payments. “The Democrats are ready to unanimously bring this to the ground this week. Let’s do it!” she tweeted.

Spokespersons for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The package includes, among other things, increased unemployment benefits, more small business loans, a direct payment of $ 600 to individuals, and funds to distribute Covid-19 vaccines.

Legislators wanted to avoid phasing out unemployment programs that would result in 12 million people losing benefits the day after Christmas. They also tried to prevent an eviction moratorium from expiring. Without the moratorium, tens of millions of people could lose their homes by the end of the month.

The amount of direct payments was a major sticking point in the final bill, which came after months of failed talks and false starts while the economy struggled to recover and hundreds of thousands of Americans died from the coronavirus.

GOP Senator Josh Hawley and independent Senator Bernie Sanders, who is negotiating with Democrats, had called for $ 1,200 checks for individuals, which would have matched what the government sent to people in the earlier stages of the pandemic this spring.

Mnuchin told CNBC earlier this week that people could get stimulus checks as early as next week.

Trump also said if Congress fails to deliver the aid package it desires, it will be left to the next administration.

“And maybe I am that administration and we will make it,” he said.

Trump lost to Biden in the November election. However, the president continued to falsely insist that he did indeed win the election and that he was the victim of widespread electoral fraud. Several judges have denied Trump and Trump’s efforts in court to overturn Biden’s victory.

Later on Tuesday, Trump hit the Republican leadership of the Senate, particularly McConnell and the Senate majority whip, John Thune, RS.D. McConnell and Thune have said the Senate would not stand in the way of confirming Biden as the winner of the presidential election.