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Biden says count on excellent news in subsequent 24 hours

Biden says expect good news in next 24 hours

UPDATE, 5:15 p.m. ET: Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm just announced that the Colonial Pipeline is resuming gas pipeline operations.

WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden said Wednesday he was expecting good news “in the next 24 hours” of the ongoing cyber attack on the Colonial Pipeline that has been hampering fuel deliveries to the east coast in recent days.

“We have been in very close contact with Colonial Pipeline, the area you are talking about – one of the reasons gasoline prices are rising,” Biden said at an event on Wednesday afternoon.

“I think you will be hearing good news in the next 24 hours. And I think we will get this under control.”

The remarks came as Americans in the southeast and mid-Atlantic faced pump fuel shortages from late Monday, which showed little sign of deterioration until Wednesday afternoon. Panic buying in some states exacerbated supply chain problems.

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“I’ve meanwhile made it easier for us to lift some of the restrictions on the transportation of fuel, as well as access to the US military that provides fuel, and vehicles to get it there, places where it’s badly needed becomes.” “said Biden.

The Biden administration’s recent moves, according to the White House, represent a large-scale mobilization of the government to respond to the crisis that began when Colonial informed federal authorities on Friday that it had been the target of a ransomware attack .

The government said Tuesday it would initiate a “comprehensive federal response” to restore and secure US energy supply chains.

The attack forced the company to shut down approximately 5,500 miles of pipeline, cutting off nearly half of the fuel supply on the country’s east coast.

The attack on Colonial Pipeline was traced back to a hacking group called DarkSide, an organized group of hackers set up on the ransomware as a service business model. This means that the DarkSide hackers develop, market and sell ransomware hacking tools to other criminals who then carry out attacks.

DarkSide is believed to operate out of Russia, but the White House has said there is no evidence to date that the attack was state sponsored or directed by the Kremlin.

The question that remains open is how Colonial Pipeline is solving the attack, including whether Colonial paid the ransom that hackers typically demand in these scenarios.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Wednesday refused to answer specific questions about the collaboration between Colonial Pipeline and the Biden administration, but said the company and relevant authorities are working closely together.

The Department of Energy leads the federal government’s response in coordination with the FBI, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of Defense. A FireEye Mandiant spokeswoman confirmed to CNBC that the US cybersecurity company is working with Colonial Pipeline following the incident.

The national average for a gallon of unleaded gasoline rose to $ 2.985 on Tuesday, up 6 cents over the past week, according to the AAA.

However, regionally, the price increases were sharper, noted AAA. In South Carolina, for example, gasoline prices have increased more than 6 cents since Monday and 13 cents last week. In Georgia, drivers paid $ 2.87 a gallon on Tuesday, an increase of more than 10 cents in just one day and 17 cents a week.

An increase of 3 cents per gallon would bring the average US sales price to its highest level since November 2014.

“We are currently seeing full-fledged panic in a few places that I suspected we could see,” said Tom Kloza, head of global energy analysis at OPIS. “There aren’t enough drivers to get trucks from terminals filled with gasoline to gas stations. We see a lot of gas stations running out. Georgia appears to be Ground Zero.”

Kloza said he expected gasoline prices to rise, but not to spike. The bigger problem is that gasoline will be scarce in the area as it will take some time to replace once the pipeline is turned on and the outages could continue.

Gasoline in the pipeline travels at only 5 miles per hour.

CNBC’s Eamon Javers, Amanda Macias and Patti Domm contributed to the coverage.

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Politics

Biden Indicators Government Order to Bolster Federal Authorities’s Cybersecurity

Biden Signs Executive Order to Bolster Federal Government’s Cybersecurity

WASHINGTON – As the east coast suffered the effects of a ransomware attack on a major oil pipeline, President Biden signed an executive order on Wednesday that set tough new standards for the cybersecurity of software sold to the federal government.

The move is part of an overall effort to strengthen the defense of the United States by encouraging private companies to practice better cybersecurity or at risk of being banned from federal treaties. However, the bigger effect may come from what, over time, might look like a government safety rating for software products, similar to how cars get a safety rating or restaurants in New York get a health safety rating.

The contract comes amid a wave of new cyberattacks that are more sophisticated and far-reaching than ever before. Last year, around 2,400 ransomware attacks hit corporate, local and federal agencies in blackmail schemes that block or publish victims’ data unless they pay a ransom.

The most pressing fear is an attack on critical infrastructure, a point that Americans who panicked to buy gasoline became clear this week. A ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline’s information systems forced the company to shut down a critical pipeline that has been supplying 45 percent of the east coast’s gasoline, diesel and jet fuel for several days.

While every president since George W. Bush has issued new guidelines to strengthen the country’s digital defenses, Biden’s command is designed to dig deep into the private sector. And it’s far more detailed than any previous effort.

For the first time, the US will require all software purchased by the federal government to meet a set of new cybersecurity standards within six months. Although companies would have to self-certify, violations would be removed from federal procurement lists, which could affect their chances of selling their products in the commercial market.

The contract also sets up an incident review board, much like the teams that investigate aircraft accidents to learn lessons from major hacking episodes. The White House dictates that the first incident investigated will be the SolarWinds hack, in which Russia’s leading intelligence agency changed the computer code of an American company’s network management software. It gave Russia broad access to 18,000 agencies, organizations, and companies, mostly in the United States.

The new regulation also stipulates that all federal agencies must encrypt data, regardless of whether it is stored or transmitted – two very different challenges. When China stole 21.5 million files via federal employees and contractors who had security clearance in place, none of the files were encrypted so they could be easily read. (Chinese hackers, investigators later concluded, encrypted the files themselves – so as not to be discovered when they sent the sensitive records back to Beijing.)

Previous efforts to set minimum standards for software failed at Congress, particularly at a major showdown nine years ago. Small businesses have said the changes are not affordable and larger businesses have resisted an intrusive role the federal government plays in their systems.

But Mr Biden decided it was more important to act quickly than try to fight for broader mandates on Capitol Hill. Its staff said it was a first step, and industry officials said it was bolder than expected.

Updated

May 12, 2021, 7:36 p.m. ET

Amit Yoran, the executive director of Tenable and a former cybersecurity officer in the Department of Homeland Security, said the question everyone was wondering was whether Mr. Biden’s orders would stop the next Colonial or SolarWinds attacks.

“No politics, government initiative or technology can do that,” said Yoran. “But that’s a good start.”

Government officials have complained that Colonial had poor defenses, and although it built a hard shell around its computer networks, it had no way of monitoring an adversary who got inside. The Biden administration hopes that the standards set out in the Executive Ordinance, which require multifactor authentication and other protective measures, will become widespread and improve security worldwide.

Senator Mark Warner, Democrat of Virginia and chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, praised the order but said it should be followed by Congressional action.

Mr Warner said the recent attacks “have shown what has become increasingly apparent in recent years: that the United States is simply unwilling to fend off government sponsored or even criminal hackers who intend to compromise our systems for profit or espionage.” “

The new order is the first major public part of a multi-faceted review of defense, offensive, and legal strategies against opponents around the world. However, this arrangement focuses solely on deepening the defense in hopes of deterring attackers because they fear they will fail – or are at greater risk of being detected.

The Justice Department is setting up a new task force to take over ransomware. Now that it has been discovered in recent months that such attacks are more than just blackmail, they can topple economic sectors.

Mr Biden announced sanctions against Russia for the SolarWinds hack, and his national security adviser Jake Sullivan said there would be “invisible” consequences as well. So far, the United States has not taken similar action against the Chinese government because it was believed to have been involved in another attack and exploited loopholes in a Microsoft system used by large corporations around the world.

The Executive Order was first drafted in February in response to the SolarWinds intrusion. This attack was particularly nifty because hackers working for the Russian government managed to modify the company’s under development code that unsuspectingly distributed the malware in an update to its software packages. It was discovered during Mr Biden’s transition and led him to state that he could not trust the integrity of the federal computer systems.

Established under the Executive Ordinance, the review body is jointly chaired by the Minister of Homeland Security and a private sector official, based on the specific episode currently being investigated, in order to attract industry executives who fear the investigation could be fodder for lawsuits .

Since it was created by executive order rather than an act of Congress, the new body will not have the same extensive powers as a security body. However, officials remain confident that this will be helpful in identifying vulnerabilities, improving security practices, and pushing companies to invest more in improving their networks.

Much of the executive order focuses on information sharing and transparency. The aim is to reduce the time it takes for organizations that have been hacked or discover vulnerabilities to share this information with the Cyber ​​Security and Infrastructure Security Agency.

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Business

Biden urges mother and father to get children vaccinated after CDC panel endorses shot

Biden urges parents to get kids vaccinated after CDC panel endorses shot

United States President Joe Biden makes remarks on the Covid-19 response and vaccination program on May 12, 2021 in the South Court Auditorium of the White House, Washington, DC.

Nicholas Comb | AFP | Getty Images

President Joe Biden urged parents on Wednesday to vaccinate their children just before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention approved the use of the Pfid and BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine for teens ages 12-15.

The previous Wednesday, the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) issued its recommendation, which was accepted 14-0 with one abstention. CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky gave final approval to the approval later that day.

Speaking at a press conference, Biden said the approval was “another big step in our fight against the pandemic”.

Almost 17 million Americans can now get vaccinated, Biden said during a speech on the White House’s Covid-19 response and vaccination campaign. “I encourage each of them and their parents to get their vaccination shots right away,” he said.

In the clinical study of 12-15 year olds, the vaccine was found to be 100% effective at two doses. The most commonly reported side effects were pain at the injection site and in joints and muscles, fatigue, headache, chills and fever, said Pfizer scientist Dr. John Perez told the CDC panel on Wednesday. Side effects usually subsided within a day or two, he said.

The Biden government is working to make the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine available in more locations in the United States, including pediatrician offices and local pharmacies, according to senior government officials.

The CDC, in partnership with states, has made efforts to enroll more pediatricians and general practitioners as Covid vaccination providers to expand access to shots in the coming weeks. The CDC will also work with community health centers to provide vaccinations for adolescents.

The CDC panel’s approval comes ahead of the summer camp season and July 4th – a date the Biden government hopes will mark a turning point in the nation’s fight against the virus. According to the Johns Hopkins University, more than 3.3 million people have died of Covid-19 worldwide, almost 600,000 of them in the United States.

Vaccinating children is seen as critical to ending the pandemic. The nation is unlikely to achieve herd immunity – if enough people in a given community have antibodies to a given disease – until children can be vaccinated, health officials and experts say.

As of Tuesday, more than 150 million Americans ages 18 and older had received at least one dose, according to the CDC. Around 115 million American adults are fully vaccinated, according to the CDC. About 13% of adults say they definitely won’t get a vaccine, while 21% say they will “wait and see” or just get one if needed, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

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Politics

Uber, Lyft Will Give Free Rides to Vaccine Websites, Biden Says

Uber, Lyft Will Give Free Rides to Vaccine Sites, Biden Says

President Biden said Tuesday that Uber and Lyft, two of the largest ridesharing in the country, would be offering free rides to vaccination sites starting May 24. This agreement is designed to help him achieve his goal of fully vaccinating 160 million adults by July 4th.

Mr Biden said the ride-sharing initiative would last until then.

In a meeting with a group of six governors from states such as Ohio, Utah, and Maine, he also outlined other initiatives, including setting up vaccination sites at community colleges and another to send FEMA officials across the country to encourage residents to get a shot. The announcement marked an aggressive new phase in the government’s efforts to address vaccine hesitation and expand access.

“We’ll be able to take a serious step towards normalcy by Independence Day,” said Biden, referring to a benchmark he set in March. “And there is still a lot to be done to get there. But I think we can get there. “

Although at least 152 million people in the United States had received at least one vaccine by Monday, according to the Centers for Disease Control, the rate of vaccination has slowed in recent weeks.

Experts say they expected a slowdown, but vaccine reluctance – in part due to an 11-day hiatus in administering the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine – will remain a significant barrier. Only a small percentage of Americans who haven’t been vaccinated say they definitely will, according to recent polls.

Some governors, including West Virginia’s Jim Justice, have begun experimenting with incentives that could sway hesitant or disinterested Americans, though officials are still trying to work out the details of the program. In New York, officials are offering free train and subway tickets with vaccinations.

The governors, who met the president virtually on Tuesday, had their own ideas. Maine Governor Janet Mills announced to Mr. Biden that the state will be offering LL Bean coupons, free fishing and hunting licenses, and tickets to local sporting events as incentives.

“We call this ‘your shot to get outside,'” Ms. Mills said. “Oh, it’s cheesy, I know, but we do know that during the pandemic, the people of Maine took refuge in relief and Mother Nature.”

Mr. Biden seemed amused by the idea and replied, “I suspect this will probably work.”

Ohio Governor Mike DeWine said the Ohio National Guard has set up small vaccination stations in nursing homes across the state. Utah Governor Spencer Cox said pop-up clinics were popping up in churches and health officials were working with clergy to deliver information about the vaccines to parishioners.

Mr. Cox also commended the Food and Drug Administration’s move to approve the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine for children ages 12-15: “Mr. President, we’re really good at having kids here, so we’re excited to have this opportunity, ”he said.

In New York, officials are looking even further afield for potential buyers for their allocation of cans. Governor Andrew M. Cuomo said Monday that the state was waiving residency requirements for vaccination in New York City, meaning tourists from around the country and around the world could come and get vaccinated for free.

The move was first suggested by Mayor Bill de Blasio as a means of increasing tourism, and a vaccine pop-up clinic in Times Square is already serving tourists. More locations in places popular with tourists are expected to follow.

“We had historic tourism levels before the pandemic, up to 67 million tourists in a single year,” said de Blasio on Tuesday. “We want this to come back and I think it’s just a smart thing to roll out the red carpet, welcome people back and say if you need to be vaccinated we want to help you.”

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Politics

Biden ready to take further steps after Colonial Pipeline ransomware assault

Biden prepared to take additional steps after Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack

Fuel tanks are seen at Linden Junction Tank Farm on the Colonial Pipeline in Woodbridge, New Jersey on May 10, 2021.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden said Monday his administration was ready to take further steps as the energy sector grapples with a colossal cyberattack on one of the largest fuel pipelines in the country.

On Friday, the Colonial Pipeline ceased operations and notified federal authorities that it had been the victim of a ransomware attack.

The attack, carried out by criminal cyber group DarkSide, forced the company to shut down about 5,500 miles of pipeline, cutting off half of the fuel supply on the east coast of the country. Ransomware attacks are malware that encrypts files on a device or network and causes the system to become inoperable. Criminals behind such cyber attacks usually demand a ransom in return for releasing data.

The Department of Energy leads the federal government’s response in coordination with the FBI, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of Defense. A FireEye Mandiant spokeswoman confirmed to CNBC that the US cybersecurity company is working with Colonial Pipeline following the incident.

Biden said he has received regular information on the matter since the attack that struck the carotid artery of the American pipeline system. The president said his government had no information to support claims that Moscow directed the ransomware attack. He added that he would continue to discuss the situation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“So far there is no evidence from our intelligence officials that Russia is involved, although there is evidence that the actor’s ransomware is in Russia. They have a certain responsibility to deal with it,” said Biden of the White House.

The Kremlin has previously denied claims that it launched cyberattacks against the United States.

President Joe Biden discusses the US economy as Vice President Kamala Harris stands by in the East Room of the White House in Washington, USA on May 10, 2021.

Kevin Lemarque | Reuters

On the previous Monday, White House national security officials described the attack as financially motivated. However, Biden administration officials would not say whether Colonial Pipeline would agree to pay the ransom.

“Usually this is a private sector decision,” Anne Neuberger, deputy national security advisor on cyber and emerging technologies, told White House reporters when asked about the ransom payment.

“We recognize that cyber attack victims often face a very difficult situation and often only have to weigh the cost-benefit ratio when they have no other choice but to pay a ransom. Colonial is a private company, and we will postpone information about your decision. ” about paying a ransom to them, “said Neuberger.

Anne Neuberg, Deputy National Security Advisor for Cyber ​​and Emerging Technologies, speaks about the colonial pipeline failure following a cyber attack during the daily press conference at the White House in Washington, USA, on May 10, 2021.

Kevin Lemarque | Reuters

She added that the FBI had previously warned victims of ransomware attacks that paying a ransom could encourage further malicious activity.

Colonial Pipeline did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

On Monday before, the DarkSide group described its actions as “apolitical” in a Cybereason statement to CNBC.

“We are apolitical, we do not participate in geopolitics, we do not have to be tied to a defined government and look for our motives,” wrote the group.

“Our goal is to make money and not create problems for society. Starting today, we are introducing moderation and reviewing every company that our partners want to encrypt in order to avoid social consequences in the future,” added the statement.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Monday that the Department of Defense is monitoring the country’s fuel supplies amid concerns that the Colonial Pipeline shutdown could lead to gasoline, diesel and jet fuel shortages. Kirby said there are currently no known shortages in the U.S. military.

Deputy National Security Advisor Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall told White House reporters that the government had forecast no fuel shortages.

Colonial Pipeline wrote in a statement Monday afternoon that it hopes to return service by the end of the week.

“Federal government measures to grant temporary duty relief to motorists and drivers transporting refined products across Colonial’s entire footprint should help alleviate local disruptions in supply, and we thank our government partners for their assistance in resolving this issue “added the statement.

The attack on the Colonial Pipeline comes as the Biden administration is working to pass a $ 2.3 trillion infrastructure plan aimed at partially addressing America’s critical infrastructure vulnerabilities.

“Unfortunately, these types of attacks are becoming more common. They are here to stay. And we have to work with companies to secure networks to defend ourselves,” Commerce Secretary Gina Marie Raimondo told the CBS Sunday program “Face the Nation.” “. “

“Right now it’s entirely manual work. And we’re working closely with the company, the state and local authorities to make sure they get back to normal operations as quickly as possible and that there are no disruptions.” on offer, “she said, adding that infrastructure investments are a top priority for management.

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Politics

Biden Administration Prohibits Well being Care Discrimination vs. Transgender Individuals

Biden Administration Prohibits Health Care Discrimination vs. Transgender People

The Biden government announced Monday that health care providers cannot discriminate against transgender people. This is the latest step in President Biden’s efforts to restore civil rights protection to LGBTQ people who were eliminated by his predecessor.

Under the new directive, the Department of Health and Human Services will once again ban discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity by health organizations that receive federal funding.

The move will reverse a policy passed by HHS under President Donald J. Trump that the anti-discrimination provisions of the Affordable Care Act 2010 do not apply to transgender people. This move was welcomed by the social conservatives and sharply criticized by supporters of homosexual rights.

“Fear of discrimination can lead people to forego care, which can have serious negative health consequences,” said Xavier Becerra, Minister of Health for Mr Biden, in a statement. “It is the position of the Department of Health and Human Services that everyone – including LGBTQ people – should have access to medical care that is free from discrimination or interference.”

The move is part of a broader effort by the President to include lesbians, gays, bisexuals, transgender, queer and respondents – and especially transgender people – in protection against discrimination. In his first address at a joint congressional session last month, Mr. Biden pledged his support for the Gender Equality Act, which would expand civil rights laws to include sexual orientation and gender identity.

“To all the transgender Americans who watch at home, especially the young people, you are so brave,” Biden said in his speech. “I want you to know your president has your back.”

Administrative officials said the new policy was based on a Supreme Court ruling last summer in which judges said civil rights laws protect LGBTQ workers from discrimination in the workplace.

The health department’s new approach doesn’t cover employment, but officials cited the Supreme Court’s decision as support for the change. They said the department’s civil rights office would interpret the anti-discrimination provisions of the Affordable Care Act to mean that “(1) discrimination based on sexual orientation; and (2) gender identity discrimination. “

The new interpretation applies to “covered health programs or activities” that include doctors, hospitals and other health organizations that receive public funding.

“Our department’s mission is to improve the health and wellbeing of all Americans, regardless of their gender identity or sexual orientation,” said Dr. Rachel Levine, the division’s assistant health secretary and the senior transgender officer in the Biden administration.

“All people need access to health services to repair a broken bone, protect their heart health, and check for cancer risk,” she said. “Nobody should be discriminated against when seeking medical services because they are who they are.”

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Politics

Biden Plans an Order to Strengthen Cyberdefenses. Will It Be Sufficient?

Biden Plans an Order to Strengthen Cyberdefenses. Will It Be Enough?

Last month, top executives from Amazon, Microsoft, Cisco, FireEye and dozens of other companies worked with the Justice Department to deliver an 81-page report calling for an international coalition to fight ransomware. Heading the Justice Department is Lisa Monaco, the assistant attorney general, and John Carlin, who headed the agency’s national security division during the Obama administration.

Last month, the two ordered a four-month review of what Ms. Monaco described as “a mixed threat from nation-states and criminal corporations that sometimes work together to exploit our own infrastructure against us.” So far, the Justice Department has largely pursued a strategy of indicting hackers – including Russians, Chinese, Iranians and North Koreans – few of whom are ever tried in the US.

“We have to rethink,” said Ms. Monaco at the recent Munich cyber security conference.

Recommendations in the coalition’s report include urging ransomware-safe havens like Russia to prosecute cybercriminals with sanctions or restrictions on travel visas. It is also recommended that international law enforcement agencies join forces to hold money laundering cryptocurrency exchanges accountable and to know the “know your customers” laws.

The Executive Ordinance also seeks to fill in blind spots in the country’s cyber defense mechanisms uncovered in recent cyber attacks in Russia and China carried out from domestic servers in the United States, where the National Security Agency is legally banned from operating .

“It’s not the fact that we can’t connect the dots,” General Paul M. Nakasone, who heads both the National Security Agency and the Pentagon’s Cyber ​​Command, told Congress in March, reviving the indictment against American intelligence after 9/11 “We can’t see all the points.”

The contract will establish a real-time intelligence exchange ship that will allow the NSA to share threat intelligence with private companies and enable private companies to do the same. The concept has been debated for decades and has even found its way into earlier “feel good laws” – as Senator Ron Wyden, Democrat of Oregon, described a 2015 bill encouraging voluntary threat propagation – but never got implemented at the speed or speed Scale needed.

The idea is to create a ship that would allow government agencies to share classified cyberthreat data with businesses, and encourage businesses to share more incident data with the government. Companies are not legally required to disclose a breach unless hackers have come to terms with personal information such as social security numbers. The order wouldn’t change that, although lawmakers recently called for a stand-alone law to disclose violations.

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World News

Biden has a historic alternative within the Center East to foster progress

Biden has a historic opportunity in the Middle East to foster progress

President Biden’s long experience in the Senate and White House taught him that the Middle East could be quicksand for his ambitions as president.

So it was no accident that his goals in the Middle East were modest, aimed at avoiding resource-damaging distractions from his national ambitions and international priorities: recharging the US economy and recruiting European and Asian allies to deal with China.

The old logic was that US withdrawal from Middle Eastern affairs would leave a dangerous vacuum. The new thought was that by distancing you can promote greater independence.

What surprised Biden government officials is how quickly historical opportunities have emerged. A positive series of loosely related events in the region provides the best opportunity to allay tension, end conflict, build economic progress and advance Middle East integration.

Their combined effect should be to induce the Biden government to recalibrate their “do-no-harm” approach to the region and raise their ambitions. First, it should focus on the four leading indicators of change and examine how to build on them.

  • First, the region’s two bitterest opponents, Saudi Arabia and Iran, are holding secret talks to resolve the region’s arson conflict.
  • Second, this week Turkey added Egypt to its list of countries it seeks to ease tension with – including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel.
  • Third, the signatories of last year’s Abraham Accords continue to build on their historic normalization agreement. The United Arab Emirates and Israel will open free trade talks next month.
  • Finally, Egypt, Jordan and Iraq are holding trilateral talks to deepen their economic ties and highlight the potential for growth-enhancing regional integration.

To support all of this, it would not require the military engagement, endless commitments, or costly investments that have piqued Americans in the region.

What it takes is an increased level of diplomatic and economic creativity and the dusting of history books to examine how the US helped Europe end centuries of post-WWII conflict and build the institutions and cooperative habits that continue to exist today Have consisted.

The process should begin by examining the dynamics of what is unfolding, staying away from what is working well, and engaging where that would support fragile progress.

Given the financial and reputational cost of their disputes, countries that have long been at odds are speaking – Saudi Arabia with Iran, Turkey with Egypt, the United Arab Emirates with Qatar, and Israel with any number of Arab states, and other emerging combinations.

Warring parties in Libya and Yemen are looking for ways to de-escalate, even though they are far from solutions. Leaders have stepped up their efforts for economic growth and recognized the needs of a well-educated, emerging generation who understand global standards.

Most fascinatingly, Saudi Arabia and Iran have had secret talks since January, apparently without US involvement, and mediated by Iraq.

In a dramatic change of tone, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman said: “We do not want the situation with Iran to be difficult. On the contrary, we want it to flourish and grow because we have Saudi interests in Iran, and they do also.” Iranian interests in Saudi Arabia designed to promote prosperity and growth in the region and around the world. “

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has many reasons to change course. Among them was the shock of a sophisticated Iranian attack on Saudi oil facilities in September 2019 that cost Riyadh around $ 2 billion.

Not only did the event uncover the kingdom’s vulnerability and Iran’s growing capabilities, but it also cast doubts about US security guarantees, even from a friend as close as President Donald Trump, who did not reciprocate Riyadh.

“The concern that Biden will be overly nice with Iran,” says Kirsten Fontenrose of the Atlantic Council, “while he is withdrawing from the region and de-prioritizing bilateral relations is currently of crucial importance to Saudi’s calculations.”

Turkey, which is economically and politically isolated, has also repaired fences with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel – who were aware of Istanbul’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood and other groups they consider extremist.

Building on last year’s historic Abraham Accords, a senior Middle East official says Israel and the UAE will begin talks next month on a free trade agreement, just one of many efforts to capitalize on the dynamic of normalized relations.

The UAE continued to function as an oversized regional elixir for economic modernization and political moderation, and this week liberalized its residency requirements to attract wealthy expats. They have set themselves the goal of doubling their GDP within the decade, particularly through technological investments.

Separated and inspired by the Abraham Accords, officials from Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Greece and Cyprus met against the backdrop of the Eastern Mediterranean in April to deepen their cooperation on everything from energy to fighting the pandemic.

Taken alone, these indicators may appear poor rather than transformative. Tie them together and build on them more methodically, and the Middle East could be the beginnings of such de-escalation of conflict, economic cooperation and institution-building that Europe enjoyed after World War II.

With security threats growing in the Horn of Africa and new uncertainties about the future of Afghanistan, the US wants to be able to invite more stable partners in the Middle East to better address growing uncertainties elsewhere in its wider neighborhood.

Nobody should expect the Middle East in the short term to have its own equivalent of the European Union, NATO or the CSCE, the Commission for Security and Cooperation in Europe, where talks between rival Cold War factions take place.

Nor should the US be expected to play the galvanizing role it played when it had half of global GDP, much of Europe was in ruins, and the Soviet Union rose as an adversary.

Still, it would be wrong to underestimate the positive potential influence of the US.

The Trump administration’s support for the Abraham Accord helped fuel growing collaboration among its signatories: Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.

The government of Biden has approved the agreements, most recently in a conversation between President Biden and the Crown Prince of the United Arab Emirates, Mohammed Bin Zayed. However, Biden administrators should invest more in building the agreements.

President Biden’s resumption of negotiation efforts with Iran, his focus on human rights issues and his reluctance to feed the divisions in the region will also play a positive role as long as negotiators do not set the bar too low to lift sanctions against Tehran.

What the Biden administration must avoid is hearing the false conclusion of some analysts that US withdrawal from the region would accelerate progress. What is needed instead is consistent support for the region’s growing modernization and moderation forces, which have won but are still a long way off.

Frederick Kempe is a best-selling author, award-winning journalist, and President and CEO of the Atlantic Council, one of America’s most influential think tanks on global affairs. He worked for the Wall Street Journal for more than 25 years as foreign correspondent, assistant editor-in-chief and senior editor for the European edition of the newspaper. His latest book – “Berlin 1961: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the Most Dangerous Place in the World” – was a New York Times bestseller and has been published in more than a dozen languages. Follow him on Twitter @FredKempe and subscribe here to Inflection Points, his view every Saturday of the top stories and trends of the past week.

More information from CNBC staff can be found here @ CNBCOpinion on twitter.

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Politics

Weak jobs report reveals want for enormous jobs and households payments: Biden

Weak jobs report shows need for massive jobs and families bills: Biden

WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden said Friday that lower-than-expected job growth in April shows that the U.S. economy is still struggling to recover from the Covid pandemic and that its massive bills for infrastructure and family support are now more than ever needed.

“This month’s job numbers show that we are on the right track,” said Biden. “But we still have a long way to go. My laser focus is on growing the country’s economy and creating jobs. My laser focus is on vaccination, and my laser focus is on one more thing: making sure that hard-working people are in this country will no longer be left out in the cold. “

Hours before Biden spoke, the Labor Department reported that the hiring slowed dramatically in April. The number of non-farm workers rose by 266,000, significantly less than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.1% due to the increasing shortage of available labor.

Dow Jones estimated 1 million new jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.8%.

Many economists had expected even higher jobs in the face of signs that the US economy was coming back to life.

Biden said the slow pace of recovery helped disprove critics of the government’s Covid relief efforts.

“Some critics said we didn’t need the American bailout plan, this economy would only heal itself. I think today’s report only underscores the importance of the measures we are taking,” said the president. “Our efforts are starting to work, but the climb is steep and we still have a long way to go.”

The unexpectedly low job growth could bolster the Biden administration’s argument to Congress that the president’s $ 4 trillion plans for jobs and families are required for the U.S. economy to fully recover from the pandemic.

Biden’s Infrastructure Bill, dubbed the American Employment Plan, would spend $ 2.3 trillion on rebuilding the country’s transportation infrastructure and create millions of jobs for workers without a college degree.

The second part of his national agenda, the American Families Plan, would provide an additional $ 1.8 trillion to fund universal preschool kindergarten to offer free community college to every American and subsidize childcare, among other things.

Biden intends to fund his stimulus packages by raising the corporate tax rate, raising taxes on the very rich, filling in loopholes, and increasing IRS enforcement.

And while the president is hoping to gain bipartisan support for the bills, Republicans in Congress have already said tax hikes are a red line they won’t cross.

Negotiations continue, however, and a group of Republican senators are expected to visit the White House in the coming days to meet with the president on possible areas of compromise.

The labor shortage debate

The weak recovery in jobs also reflects what many economists are referring to as multi-sector labor shortages.

“I think it’s as much about a lack of labor as it is a lack of labor demand,” Jason Furman, an economist at Harvard University and a former advisor to the Obama administration, told CNBC. “If you look at April, it seems like there were around 1.1 unemployed for every vacancy. So there are a lot of jobs out there, there just isn’t a lot of labor.”

Republicans and some employers have attributed the labor shortage to what they believe is overly generous unemployment benefits approved by Congress as part of the comprehensive pandemic relief package.

Specifically, they point to a $ 300 weekly unemployment bonus, over and above what states stipulate and which is slated to expire in September.

“I told you weeks ago that every day in Florida I hear from small businesses that they can’t hire people because the government is paying them to keep them out of work,” Republican Senator Marco Rubio tweeted Friday.

Biden rejected this argument. “Today’s report is a refutation of the talk that Americans just don’t want to work,” he said.

“This report shows that there is a much bigger problem: our economy still has 8 million fewer jobs than when this pandemic started.”

The president also said the impact of unemployment benefits on labor markets was “not measurable”.

Census data gathered over the past few weeks suggests that daycare and school closings have forced millions of Americans to stay home and look after children or monitor online learning.

According to a household impulse census poll conducted in late March, 6.3 million people said they were not working because they had to look after a child who was not in school or daycare. Another 2.1 million cared for an elderly person.

Another 4.1 million Americans said they were not working due to concerns about getting or spreading Covid.

— CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this report.

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Business

The Inventory Market Loves Biden Extra Than Trump. So Far, at Least.

The Stock Market Loves Biden More Than Trump. So Far, at Least.

From the moment he was elected president in 2016 through his failed re-election campaign, Donald J. Trump cited the stock market as a report on the presidency.

The market loved him, said Mr Trump, and he hated Democrats, especially his opponent Joseph R. Biden Jr. During the presidential debate in October, Mr Trump warned of Mr Biden: “If he is elected, the market will collapse. ”In a variety of situations, he said that Democrats would be a disaster and that a victory would create“ a depression ”for them that would“ crumble ”the stock market.

So far it has not happened that way.

To the extent that the Dow Jones industrial average measures the stock market’s affection for a president, its early report states that the market loves President Biden’s first terms far more than President Trump’s.

Mr. Biden would get an A for this early period; Mr Trump would get a B for market performance in his early days as president, though he would get a higher grade for much of the rest of the term in office.

From election day to Thursday, the Dow rose 26 percent from 14 percent over the same period four years ago. Given the signs that the United States is making a swift recovery from the pandemic, the early returnees for Mr Biden’s actual tenure have also been exceptional. The rise in the stock market from its inauguration day close to Thursday’s close was the best start to a presidency since that of another Democrat, Lyndon B. Johnson.

For those too young to remember the terrible day of November 22, 1963, Johnson, the vice president, was sworn in as president that afternoon after President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas. If we measure the performance of the stock markets from the end of the day they all took office, we can include both Johnson and Theodore Roosevelt, who became president on September 14, 1901 after President William McKinley died of gunshot wounds.

The Republican Party has long claimed that it is the party of business and that Republican rule is better for stocks. However, historical record shows that the market has generally performed better under Democratic presidents since the beginning of the 20th century.

Overall, the market ranks third for all presidents during a comparable term since 1901 under President Biden. This comes from a balance sheet by Paul Hickey, co-founder of the Bespoke Investment Group, until Thursday (109th day of the Biden administration).

These are the top performers:

  • Franklin D. Roosevelt, inaugurated March 4, 1933: 78.1 percent.

  • Johnson, inaugurated November 22, 1963: 13.8 percent.

  • Mr. Biden, inaugurated on January 20, 2021: 10.8 percent.

  • William H. Taft, inaugurated March 4, 1909: 9.6 percent.

Note that three of the top four – Roosevelt, Johnson, and Mr. Biden – were Democrats. That fits an obvious pattern. Since 1900, the average stock market profit for Democrats at the beginning of their presidency has been 7.9 percent; for Republicans only 2.7 percent.

In contrast, the Dow rose 5.8 percent in Mr. Trump’s early days as president. That was a strong return for a Republican, but not quite able to sniff for a Democrat.

Updated

May 8, 2021, 12:17 p.m. ET

Now look at longer-term returns – how the Dow performed over the course of all presidencies from 1901 onwards. Again, the market fared better among Democrats, with an annual gain of 6.7 percent compared to 3.5 percent among Republicans.

With this metric, the Trump administration looks much better and ranks fourth among all presidencies.

These are the annualized returns for the senior presidents:

  • 25.5 percent under Calvin Coolidge, a Republican, in the twenties.

  • 15.9 percent under Bill Clinton, a Democrat.

  • 12.1 percent under Barack Obama, a Democrat.

  • 12.0 percent under President Trump.

That’s an extraordinarily good market performance under Mr. Trump if you remember that it includes the stock market collapse in late February and March last year when the world was hit by the coronavirus.

The market rebounded quickly when the Federal Reserve stepped in on March 23, 2020 and responded to the emergency relief programs passed by Congress. But neither the market, nor the economy, or the pandemic improved enough in 2020 to win President Trump for another term.

President Biden is undoubtedly benefiting from the uptrend in the economy and markets that began under his predecessor – just as President Trump benefited from the growing economy that President Obama left him with.

It doesn’t always work that way. In the Great Depression, the market roared for Franklin Roosevelt’s first 100 days. It offered a hopeful contrast – and a stark break – from its immediate predecessor Herbert Hoover, who led the worst stock market crash in modern history at the time. During Hoover’s four-year tenure, the Dow lost 35.6 percent on an annualized basis, by far the worst performing by any president.

The recent boom in the market can easily be explained. Back in July, I quoted an investment analysis that suggested that the stock market could do reasonably well in a Biden presidency, despite claims to the contrary by Mr Trump. These factors included more forceful and efficient management of the coronavirus crisis, which would fuel economic recovery and corporate profits. generous fiscal stimulus programs with the possibility of building a colossal infrastructure; Return to international engagement while reducing trade friction; and a renewal of America’s global commitments to climate change.

So far this analysis has continued. But will it produce strong returns from the Biden government?

I have no idea. Unfortunately, nothing tells us where the stock market is going. All we know is that in the long run it has risen more than it has fallen, but has moved fairly randomly day in and day out and has sometimes fallen into long falls. Another decline could happen at any time, regardless of what a president does.

The only approach to investing that I would actively use is passive: use inexpensive equity and bond index funds to build a well-diversified portfolio and stay long-term. And I would try to ignore the admonitions from politicians, especially those who would tie their own voting power to the performance of the stock market.