Awful – COOPER GENERAL NEWS

It seemed reasonable that the employment numbers for the final months of 2020 would be as bad as the year as a whole.

It is fair to say that the loss of 140,000 jobs in December signals a relapse in the economic recovery in the summer and fall. Other figures in Friday’s report confirm this generally gloomy picture, such as the persistently depressed proportion of employed adults. In the debate about which letter of the alphabet best describes the pattern of the 2020 economy, the December numbers virtually rule out “V”.

But. But.

The details of this report along with everything else that is swirling around in economic policy and the financial markets are more optimistic. Thanks to monetary and fiscal incentives, there is an opportunity for 2021 to be the year of a remarkable upturn. the delayed effects of buoyant markets in recent months; and most importantly, the prospect of widespread coronavirus vaccination.

December’s numbers suggest an employment crisis limited to sectors dealing with the direct effects of pandemic stalemates. Contrary to the spring 2020 data, the latest numbers do not coincide with the widespread lack of demand in the economy that has made the recovery from recent recessions so long and so slow.

The largest job loss in December was in the leisure and hospitality industry, a sector that lost 498,000 jobs. Think about what that number represents: myriad restaurants, hotels, performance stages, and arenas that are closed; and hundreds of thousands of people are unemployed again and unsure when to return to work.

The good news is we know how and when these jobs can return. If enough Americans are vaccinated, they will likely feel comfortable returning to normal patterns of pastime. A real boom in these sectors is plausible later this year. American savings are going through the roof, and it is easy to imagine the demand for travel, concerts and the like being pent up.

Other sectors less directly affected by public health concerns – industries that were at a recessive level just a few months ago – continued to improve. You are not necessarily back to pre-pandemic levels, but are on track to get there for much longer.

Employment in construction is still 3 percent below pre-pandemic levels, but the sector created 51,000 jobs in December. At this rate it will get well again in spring. The situation is similar with production orders, which are still 4 percent lower than in February, but created 38,000 jobs in December.

The list of sectors that follow this basic pattern – still at a recession-compatible level but steadily retreating – is long and encompasses industries as diverse as trucking, property rental and leasing, and professional and business Services.

Updated

Jan. 8, 2021, 6:36 p.m. ET

Both politics and the market environment should create tailwinds for these sectors in 2021 and help them return to full health faster.

A booming stock market doesn’t lead to more economic activity overnight. As corporate executives create their investment plans and consumers make their spending decisions, rising stocks tend to have a positive effect. This would mean the positive impact of new market highs in the past few weeks should show as public health concerns subside.

December employment numbers cover a period before Congress reached a compromise pandemic relief package worth $ 900 billion. The bill includes improved unemployment benefits, among other things, that will help hundreds of thousands of workers whose jobs went missing in December, as well as $ 600 checks that are set to boost consumer spending in the coming months.

Additionally, Georgia’s Democratic victories this week and the resulting Senate majority make it more likely that these checks will soar to $ 2,000 per person. It also means that the Biden government will have the flexibility to set a more ambitious agenda, including infrastructure spending, that should support macroeconomic activity.

A Democratic Congress is also likely to provide more aid to states, helping one of the other areas of job loss in December along with leisure and hospitality (state and local governments cut 51,000 jobs in the last month).

A lot could still go wrong, such as a prolonged mistake in the vaccine launch or a market correction that damages business and consumer confidence. And none of this relieves the pain of the millions of Americans who are still unemployed.

But all together and more than ever since the pandemic began, the economy has a clear path back to full health.

Saying world wishes for a year had been an illusion; the greatest event in Paris was really one. It may be an optimistic “welcome to the other side”.

Inside a virtual Notre Dame Cathedral – a resurrected, reinterpreted version of the fire-lashed treasure – the city broadcast a computer-generated concert and light show with no one actually inside the cave-like landmark and no crowd outside.

Most of the people living now have never seen a year in which Europe, like much of the world, was so eager to break free of it – or was unable to go out with fanfare. Vaccines are the first real glimmers of hope, but the coronavirus is still ruling uncontrollably, a new variant is fueling new fears and much of the continent is locked in some form.

Concerts? Canceled. Crowds and parties? Forbidden. Stay out all night? Don’t even think about it. Across Europe, where Covid-19 has killed nearly 600,000 people, cities and nations sent the message that the only acceptable place to spend New Years Eve was home, and they tried to arrange enough spectacle or online shows to to keep people there.

“Covid loves a crowd,” said Professor Stephen Powis, England’s medical director for the UK’s National Health Service. “So please leave the parties for later in the year.”

In a televised address from the Élysée Palace, French President Emmanuel Macron, who had recovered from his own virus, said: “The year 2020 will end in the course of development: with efforts and restrictions.”

in the BerlinThe traditional television broadcast from the Brandenburg Gate ended without fireworks or live viewers. It’s one of 56 popular New Year’s Eve spots in the city that authorities are closing overnight in hopes to discourage banned outdoor gatherings. Indoor meetings are limited to five adults from no more than two households. The sale of private fireworks, a tradition for the holidays that Germans call New Years Eve because it is the feast day of St. New Years Eve, was banned – although some went off anyway. “It is necessary that this is probably the quietest New Year’s Eve Germany can remember,” said Jens Spahn, the country’s health minister.
Instead of his annual live concert outdoors Rome replaced an online streamed celebration with a series of performances and a hard-to-describe event, part concert, part light show and part stargazing entitled “How to Hear the Universe in a Spider / Web”. After Italy went under 10 p.m. curfew and banned the traditional New Year’s Eve fireworks, President Sergio Mattarella said in his annual address that the pandemic had changed the country, “exacerbating past fragility, exacerbating old inequalities and creating new ones”.
in the GenevaFireworks around Lake Geneva (also known as Lac Leman) in the heart of the city have been canceled and bars and restaurants have closed, although restrictions on private gatherings have been eased from five to ten people. Many residents of the quiet city had set out for open Swiss ski areas – much to the chagrin of neighboring European countries, which decided to close their slopes to prevent the further spread of coronavirus cases.
in the LondonBig Ben, which has been largely silent in recent years when its clock tower was renovated, was scheduled to ring 12 times at midnight, one of the few standout moments in a country where major celebrations have been canceled. Most Britons were forbidden to socialize with anyone outside their own household. This rule was backed up by a fine of up to £ 1,000 or more than $ 1,300.
Madrid The night curfew was eased from midnight to 1:30 a.m., which is usually this early for a night in Spain, but the traditional gathering in Puerta del Sol square has been canceled. People were told to stay home as much as possible, eating the traditional New Years Eve grapes while watching events on television and gathering in groups of no more than six people.
And in ParisThe only people roaming the Champs-Élysées – where around 300,000 people gathered for giant fireworks a year ago – were some of the 100,000 police officers stationed across the country to keep crowds from gathering. City officials urged people to watch the electronic music artist Jean-Michel Jarre’s Notre Dame virtual concert, an event that connects the old and the modern, the old and the new year, the pandemic and hope for an end. It would be a message of hope and a “tribute to Notre-Dame who is weakened”, Jarre told the French media, “like all of us”.