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Dow rises greater than 200 factors to begin the week whereas traders await key Fed summit

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, August 11, 2021.

Source: NYSE

Stocks were higher in early trading Monday following a volatile week on Wall Street as investors eye a key event where the Federal Reserve could hint at prospects for tapering stimulus.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 245 points, or nearly 0.6%. The S&P 500 added 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1%.

Shares of vaccine makers are trading higher after the Food and Drug Administration granted full approval for the two-dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine on Monday, the first licensing of a vaccine for Covid-19. Pfizer shares are up 3.7%. Its partner BioNTech’s stock jumped 9% and Moderna is 5% higher. Trillium Therapeutics is soaring on news that it’ll be acquired by Pfizer. Its shares are up 188%.

Bitcoin hit a three-month high on Sunday, punching above $50,000 and pulling crypto-adjacent stocks up with it. Coinbase and Microstrategy are 2% higher.

Major averages are coming off a losing week as investors grew worried that the Fed’s potential move to pull back monetary stimulus could slow down the economic recovery that is already challenged by the spread of the delta Covid-19 variant.

Traders are eagerly awaiting the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on the Fed’s timeline for dialing back its $120 billion a month bond-buying program. The event takes place virtually on Thursday and Friday. The Fed previously was going to conduct the event in a mixed virtual and live presentation, but decided Friday to go all virtual in light of the rising virus risk.

Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech will be titled “The Economic Outlook,” which “may suggest the speech could have a more near-term focus,” Nomura economist Aichi Amemiya said in a note.

“Given the recent deterioration in incoming data and the pandemic situation, we see some risk Powell focuses on increased uncertainty due to the latest COVID-19 surge,” Amemiya added. “At a minimum, we view recent comments from Fed officials as supporting our view of a December tapering announcement despite a preference on the FOMC for November as of the July meeting.”

The blue-chip Dow fell 1.1% last week, while the S&P 500 declined nearly 0.6%, breaking a two-week winning streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq dipped 0.7% during the week.

“We suspect investor conviction is being challenged by the potential for upcoming monetary policy changes, shifting growth vs. value rotations, and a rising trajectory of new coronavirus cases,” Craig Johnson, technical market strategist at Piper Sandler, said in a note.

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For the month of August, major benchmarks are poised to post modest gains. The S&P 500 is up 1.1% month to date, while the blue-chip Dow has gained 0.5% and the Nasdaq has climbed 0.3%.

“August is a historically volatile month for markets and this year is no different, with investors currently climbing multiple walls of worries,” said Rod von Lipsey, managing director at UBS Private Wealth Management. “Upticks in Covid-19 cases and a downward spiral in Afghanistan are creating a crisis of confidence, at a time when many investors are on holiday.”

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World News

Traders await Chinese language financial information for July

SINGAPORE — Asia-Pacific stocks looked poised for a lower start on Monday as investors await the release of Chinese economic data for July.

Futures pointed to a lower open for Japanese stocks. The Nikkei futures contract in Chicago was at 27,860 while its counterpart in Osaka was at 27,830. That compared against the Nikkei 225’s last close at 27,977.15. Japan’s GDP data for the second quarter is set to be released at 7:50 a.m. HK/SIN on Monday.

Shares in Australia also looked set to decline, with the SPI futures contract at 7,536.0, against the S&P/ASX 200’s last close at 7,628.90.

South Korea’s markets are closed on Monday for a holiday.

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Investor focus on Monday will likely be on the release of a slew of Chinese economic data at 10 a.m. HK/SIN. That includes China’s industrial production and retail sales print for July.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 92.522 following a recent decline from around the 93 level.

The Japanese yen traded at 109.62 per dollar, following a strengthening late last week from above 110 against the greenback. The Australian dollar changed hands at $0.7365, above levels below $0.735 seen last week.

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World News

Inventory futures rebound as buyers await extra jobs knowledge

Futures contracts tied to the major U.S. equity indexes were mildly higher Thursday morning as Wall Street looked to improve upon a mixed week.

Dow futures rose 49 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures also added about 0.2%.

The moves in the futures markets came after a mostly lower regular session on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 323.73 points, or 0.9%, and closed near its session low at 34,792.67. The S&P 500 slipped about 0.5% to finish at 4,402.66, while the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.1% to 14,780.53.

On Thursday investors will receive yet another update on the U.S. employment situation with the Labor Department’s latest weekly update to initial jobless claims. Recent earnings and economic data have been strong overall, but some economists worry economic growth and employment gains will taper from here.

“Many factors are likely driving worker shortages; concerns about catching the virus, childcare responsibilities, skills mismatches, and generous unemployment insurance benefits,” PNC Senior Economist Abbey Omodunbi said in an email. In the second half of the year, “more competition for workers, particularly in the leisure and hospitality sector, will support acceleration in wage growth, boosting household incomes and consumer spending.”

The results of an ADP private payroll survey released Wednesday showed a gain of 330,000 jobs for July, well short of the consensus estimate of 653,000. The Labor Department’s official jobs report, which typically has more impact on investors, will be released on Friday. Economists expect the report will show the U.S. added 845,000 in non-farm payrolls in July, about even with the previous month, according to Dow Jones estimates.

The 10-year Treasury yield was trading flat near 1.18% on Thursday after briefly dipping below 1.13% on Wednesday.

Shares of Roku and Uber dropped after each issued quarterly earnings results. Etsy fell 12% in premarket trading after the company gave guidance for the current quarter that indicated the pandemic-fueled commerce boom may be coming to an end. Uber was off by 3% in premarket trading.

During regular trading Wednesday, shares of Robinhood surged 50%, continuing a volatile jump after last week’s soft initial public offering. Semiconductor stocks were another bright spot, with Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices rising.

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World News

Asia-Pacific shares rise as buyers await China’s commerce knowledge for June

SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific rose in Tuesday morning trade as investors awaited the release of China’s trade data for June.

The Nikkei 225 in Japan gained 0.55% in early trade while the Topix index advanced 0.57%. South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.54%.

Shares in Australia also advanced as the S&P/ASX 200 edged 0.25% higher.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 0.1% higher.

On the economic data front, China is set to release its trade data for June at 11:00 a.m. HK/SIN on Tuesday.

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Overnight stateside, the major indexes on Wall Street rose to record closing highs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 126.02 points to 34,996.18 while the S&P 500 gained about 0.35% to 4,384.63. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.21% to 14,733.24.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 92.214 as it struggled to return to levels above 92.7 seen last week.

The Japanese yen traded at 110.30 per dollar, still weaker than levels below 110 seen against the greenback last week. The Australian dollar changed hands at $0.7481, above levels around $0.745 seen yesterday.

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Business

Excessive costs, few reductions and low stock await automotive customers

Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Car shoppers hoping to cash in on Memorial Day weekend sales events may want to rein in their expectations.

On top of reduced inventory due to a shortage of microchips — key parts needed for today’s autos to operate — and unrelenting consumer demand pushing prices higher, there are fewer incentives being offered by manufacturers and dealers.

The average incentive is $2,957, down from $4,825 in May 2020 and $3,878 in May 2019, according to a new forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.

“People will be in for a bit of a surprise,” said Ivan Drury, senior manager of insights at Edmunds.com. “There will be little to no negotiation on price.

“We’re seeing more people pay sticker price or above.”

At the start of the pandemic more than a year ago, when dealerships and manufacturing plants were shut down, chipmakers pivoted to focusing on the consumer electronics industry — i.e., computers and gaming consoles — and there are still kinks in their ability to meet the renewed demand from automakers.

Some automakers have idled manufacturing plants or cut back production of certain models, or stopped including certain high-end packages — things like navigation systems or blind-spot detectors — in vehicles that typically would have them, Drury said. 

“The shortage is really kicking the legs out from under the industry,” Drury said.

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In May, an estimated 33% of vehicles are selling within 10 days of arriving at a dealership, according to new estimates from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. That compares to 18% selling that fast in May 2019.

Additionally, car shoppers may struggle to find the car they really want. To that point, 40% of car shoppers say they’re facing that problem, according to a recent survey from Cars.com.

“If you’re picky, this may not be the right time to buy,” Drury said. “But if you’re open-minded … you’ll be in a better position.”

Of course, it’s uncertain when the squeeze on inventory will lessen.

“By the end of year, things will start to improve,” Drury said. “But we’ll be nowhere near normal levels.”

The average price paid for a new car is close to $40,000, according to Edmunds.com. For used cars, it’s above $23,000. Some of the increase in prices are due to consumer preferences shifting over the last decade to pricier pickup trucks and SUVs and away from lower-priced sedans and small cars. Improved technology and safety features add to the price, as well.

Discounts are averaging about 7% or 8%, said Kelsey Mays, assistant managing editor for Cars.com. That compares to past years when that average was 10% to 12%.

Among the incentives being offered: The Chevrolet Silverado 1500, which starts at about $29,000, has a decent discount of around $4,000, depending on the trim level, Mays said. The Toyota Camry, with a starting price of about $25,000, may come with a $1,000 discount, depending on the specifics.

The silver lining to the higher cost for used cars is that trade-ins are worth more, as well. And while there may be little price negotiation for the car you’re buying, you may be able to get more for your trade-in to bring down the amount you have to finance.

“Potential wiggle room for consumers is going to be with their trade-in,” said Mays at Cars.com. “Consumers should leverage those elevated values and get the most they can.”

There are also other ways to bring down the cost of your purchase. Depending on your credit score, you may be able to find a 0% (or close to it) financing deal on a new car. Otherwise, the average interest rate paid on a five-year new-car loan is 4.12%, according to Bankrate. For a three-year used car loan, it’s 4.42%.

“Shop the interest rate,” Drury said. “That’s where savings can come from.”

If you’re picky, this may not be the right time to buy. But if you’re open-minded … you’ll be in a better position.

Ivan Drury

Senior manager of insights at Edmunds.com

Unless paying with cash, you should get preapproved for a loan from a bank or credit union. While there’s no obligation to use the preapproval, you’ll at least be armed with a comparison when the dealership offers its loan terms.

Be aware that the longer you stretch out your loan — say, for 72 or 84 months — in an effort to afford the monthly payments, the more you’ll pay in interest (unless it’s 0%) and the greater the chance that you’ll end up trading in your car for a new one before you’ve paid it off.

And in that scenario, if the trade-in value is less than what’s owed on the loan, consumers often end up rolling that “negative equity” into the loan for their next car.

If you want a brand-new car but can’t find exactly what you want, you may want to consider leasing instead of making a purchase.

“It’s not a long-term commitment … and might be better than financing something over six years that you don’t like,” Drury said.

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Business

China and E.U. Leaders Strike Funding Deal, however Political Hurdles Await

The heads of state and government of China and the European Union reached an agreement on Wednesday It’s easier for companies to operate on each other’s territory. This is a major geopolitical victory for China at a time when criticism of its human rights record and handling of the pandemic have increasingly isolated it.

The landmark pact, however, faces political opposition in Europe and Washington that could ultimately fail it, highlighting the difficulty of dealing with an authoritarian pact Superpower that is both an economic rival and a lucrative market.

A large group in the European Parliament, which must ratify the agreement before it can enter into force, rejects the agreement on the grounds that it is not doing enough to stop human rights abuses in China. In addition, a top advisor to President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. has signaled that the new administration is not happy with the deal.

Chancellor Angela Merkel has made the agreement a priority because of its importance for German automobile manufacturers and other manufacturers with major activities in China.

The pact relaxes many of the restrictions placed on European companies in China, including the requirement that they operate through joint ventures with Chinese partners and share sensitive technology.

The deal also opens China to European banks and contains provisions to cut secret government subsidies. Foreign companies often complain that the Chinese government is secretly subsidizing domestic companies to give them a competitive advantage.

The agreement will “significantly improve the competitive environment for European companies in China,” said Hildegard Müller, President of the German Association of the Auto Industry, in a statement before the announcement. “It will give new impetus to a global, rules-based framework for trade and investment.”

China’s leader Xi Jinping also made reaching the deal a priority and empowered negotiators to make enough concessions to persuade Europeans to move on.

Wednesday’s announcement was preceded by a video call attended by Mr Xi and the President of the European Commission, Ursula van der Leyen, to seek an in-principle deal.

European officials said a breakthrough came in mid-December when China made a major concession to increase its commitment to international standards on forced labor. China also agreed to step up its efforts to combat climate change.

Valdis Dombrovskis, the European trade commissioner, said the deal was the “most ambitious” pact of its kind that China has ever agreed to.

“The value of the deal goes beyond euros and cents as it also anchors our value-based trade agenda with one of our largest trading partners,” Dombrovskis said in a statement on Wednesday.

The conclusion of the pact is a diplomatic victory for China, whose international standing has been damaged in terms of dealing with the coronavirus pandemic and crackdown in Hong Kong and the predominantly Muslim province of Xinjiang.

These issues – and the caution of China’s pledges to genuinely open up to foreign investment – became the focus of opposition to the deal as the final details were clarified. For the Chinese, the agreement has shown that the country is not exposed to any diplomatic isolation worth mentioning when it comes to dealing with human rights.

Economy & Economy

Updated

Dec. Dec. 23, 2020 at 8:59 p.m. ET

China also appeared keen to reach an agreement before Mr Biden took office in January. He reckoned that closer economic ties with the Europeans could prevent the new government from trying to develop an allied strategy to challenge China’s trade practices and other policies.

Speaking on Monday, Mr. Biden said the United States is “stronger and more effective on all issues that matter to US-China relations when we are flanked by nations who share our vision for the future of the world Share the world. ”

Right now, he said, there is “an enormous vacuum” in American leadership. “We need to regain the trust and confidence of a world that has begun to find ways to work around us or without us.”

The White House also opposed the deal, but had little leverage among Europeans to block it. The Trump administration has been trying to isolate China and its businesses for months. She announced new restrictions this week on those tied to the People’s Liberation Army, only to be rejected by countries that are still ready to engage the Chinese.

The decision by the Europeans to overlook objections from Camp Biden was an indication that relations with the United States will not automatically fall back on the relative bonhomie that prevailed during the Obama administration.

President Trump’s fondness for burning bridges with long-standing allies inspired Europe to largely ignore the United States in pursuing trade deals with countries like Japan, Vietnam and Australia. European diplomats said this week that while they hope for a more cooperative relationship with the Biden administration, they could not subordinate their interests to the US election cycle.

Members of the European Green Party, among others, say the deal is not enough to open up China’s markets, honor previous commitments on trade and the environment, or tackle human rights abuses, including forced labor and mass internment of Uyghurs and other Muslims in far west Xinjiang.

Opponents may be able to collect enough votes to block ratification in the European Parliament.

The negotiators for China and the European Union have been working on an agreement for nearly seven years, but progress suddenly accelerated after Mr Biden defeated Mr Trump in the elections.

Unlike Mr Trump, who has often been hostile to Europe, Mr Biden is expected to try to work with the European Union to curb Chinese ambitions. However, it could take many months for these efforts to materialize.

United States law prohibits members of the new administration from dealing directly with foreign officials until Mr Biden takes office on January 20. In an interview in early December, Mr Biden said he planned a full review of trade relations with China and consulted allies in Asia and Europe to develop a coherent strategy before making changes to US trade terms.

“I will not take any immediate steps,” he said.

In the meantime, Mr Biden’s advisers have used public statements to warn European officials against rushing to act and to convince them of the benefits of waiting for coordination with the new American administration.

The decision of Mr. Biden to serve as National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, wrote on Twitter this month that the new administration would “welcome early consultations with our European partners about our shared concerns about China’s economic practices.”

Chinese officials have been pushing to keep the deal on track in recent weeks, especially after the opposition became public in Europe.

When talks stalled last week, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in a statement that the deal “would be of great importance to the recovery of the world economy.” It was said that both sides had to be ready to meet “halfway”, but that China would protect “its own security and development interests”.

Despite the provisions of the treaty on forced labor, Chinese officials have repeatedly denied that the country is practicing in Xinjiang or elsewhere, despite evidence to the contrary. The vehemence of these rejections raises questions about how China can be expected to comply with obligations to protect workers’ rights.

“The so-called forced labor in Xinjiang is an outright lie,” said a Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin recently. “Those responsible for such despicable slander should be convicted and brought to justice.”

Ana Swanson reported from Washington, Keith Bradsher from Beijing and Monika Pronczuk from Brussels.