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Blockchain analyst weighs in on bitcoin (BTC), ether

Blockchain analyst weighs in on bitcoin (BTC), ether

The cryptocurrency space could branch out into three different markets — and people may even stop talking about crypto as a single entity one year on, predicted Paul Brody, global blockchain leader at EY.

Bitcoin and ether have had a wild ride in recent weeks, with billions of dollars wiped off their market value, according to Coinmarketcap.com.

Bitcoin, the largest digital currency by market cap, at one point plunged by 30% to hover near the $30,000 level. It has since bounced back partially to current levels of about $38,090, according to Coin Metrics.

There are currently three “very different” stories going on in the cryptocurrency space, Brody told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Tuesday.

1. ‘Meme coins’

Read more about cryptocurrencies from CNBC Pro

This segment of cryptocurrencies “could be categorized as investing as entertainment,” Brody said.

“It’s hard for me to predict where they’re going to go, but I don’t see them as having a very big future in the ecosystem,” he added.

2. Bitcoin as ‘digital gold’

The next part of the ecosystem revolves around bitcoin, Brody said. The digital token has often been cited as a potential competitor to gold as a hedge against inflation and safe-haven asset. Still, bitcoin’s price volatility tends to be much higher as compared with gold.

According to Brody, however, bitcoin is “better than gold” in some ways.

“When the price of gold goes up people mine more, but you can’t really do that with bitcoin,” he said.

The cryptocurrency is limited and a maximum of 21 million bitcoins can be “mined” — there are currently more than 18 million already in circulation. New bitcoin is created by computer users who solve complicated mathematical puzzles, and they take up a lot of energy.

“Bitcoin is gonna go up if everybody buys into this idea that you should have some percentage of your … portfolio in bitcoin — that will drive a lot of participation,” Brody said.

Questions remain around bitcoin’s exact place in an investment portfolio, with analysts from Societe Generale saying that it’s still “highly contested.”

3. The Ethereum ecosystem

“The third ecosystem, that could potentially diverge here, is the Ethereum ecosystem,” Brody said, adding that it builds a “whole business ecosystem” around sectors such as decentralized financial services and storage.

It will be “driven by demand for those services and the growth of that ecosystem,” he added.

Billionaire investor Mark Cuban is a firm supporter of Ethereum and has said that “the number of transactions and the diversity of transaction types along with the development efforts in Ethereum dwarf bitcoin.”

Meanwhile, New York University’s Aswath Damodaran told CNBC last week that he sees ether — the cryptocurrency that runs on the Ethereum blockchain — as having “a better shot” at becoming a commodity than bitcoin.

For his part, Brody predicted that “we’ll stop talking, I think, in a year about crypto as a whole — and start talking about the Ethereum ecosystem or the bitcoin value proposition.”

— CNBC’s MacKenzie Sigalos contributed to this report.

Categories
Business

It is ‘harmful’ if the EU experiments with vaccine nationalism: Analyst

Europe's suspension of AstraZeneca's Covid vaccine is damaging

The European Union could open a “Pandora’s Box” if it decides to restrict exports of coronavirus vaccines, a political analyst told CNBC last week.

Vaccinations in the 27-person block were hampered by production problems. Anglo-Swedish company AstraZeneca lowered its target for the first quarter from 90 million cans to 30 million cans earlier this year.

The shot, developed in collaboration with Oxford University, is preferred for the launch of vaccines in the European Union.

Officials have already imposed strict rules on export. The EU will check whether the receiving country has the virus under better control than Europe and whether there are any restrictions on vaccines or raw materials before allowing the shots to be sent.

However, some EU countries have concerns about the new rules and want the supply chains to remain open.

There is tremendous political pressure … to experiment with some kind of vaccine nationalism.

James Crabtree

Associate professor in practice

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen “is really fighting” because other rich countries are doing much better than the EU on vaccinations, said James Crabtree, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

“There is tremendous political pressure … to experiment with some kind of vaccine nationalism,” Crabtree told CNBC’s Street Signs Asia on Friday.

“This is of course very dangerous as the EU is usually one of the most responsible international actors,” he said.

‘Pandora’s Box’

He also warned that other countries could follow the EU’s lead in prioritizing vaccines for local populations.

“When it tries to restrict the flow of vaccine from EU factories, it opens a Pandora’s box where countries like India may begin to do the same,” Crabtree said.

That could be very harmful as new variants of Covid are likely to keep popping up, he added.

EU trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis said it was “highly unfair” to accuse the EU of vaccine nationalism because it is “one of the largest vaccine exporters”.

Data shows that since December the EU has exported 77 million cans of the shots to 33 countries, while 88 million have been shipped to EU countries.

The bloc has also complained that London lacks the same level of reciprocity in the distribution of vaccines.

Heather Conley of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) noted that the UK and the EU are working towards a “mutually beneficial relationship”.

Still, leaders in Europe are nervous about their political futures as some countries vote in the coming year or so, said Conley, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at CSIS.

“The political anger of the heads of state and government and this hysteria about the political future will lead the EU to take action that could ultimately counter its long-term interest in embracing these vaccines very quickly,” she told Friday CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia”.

“I think the international damage this would do to global vaccine production would be greater than the increased number of vaccines in the EU,” she said.

A doctor administers the Astrazeneca vaccine at a mass coronavirus (COVID-19) drive-through clinic in Milan, Italy on March 15, 2021.

Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Categories
Business

Analyst on outlook for High Glove, Malaysian glove shares

Analyst on outlook for Top Glove, Malaysian glove stocks

SINGAPORE – The recent fall in prices for Malaysian rubber glove manufacturers is “unjustified,” said an analyst who predicts further uptrend for stocks.

Top Glove, the world’s largest manufacturer of rubber gloves, was down 17.7% this year at the close of trading on Monday. The smaller colleagues Hartalega, Supermax and Kossan fell between 18% and 30%.

In comparison, the benchmark index FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI fell 0.9% over the same period.

Employees at Top Glove, the world’s largest glove manufacturer, will test latex glove production in a waterproof test room at one of the company’s factories in Selangor, Malaysia on February 18, 2020.

Samsul said | Bloomberg | Getty Images

“We are maintaining our overweight position in the sector as we believe the recent decline in share prices is not justified,” wrote Ng Chi Hoong, an analyst at Malaysian investment bank Affin Hwang, in a report on Monday.

The decline in Malaysian glove inventories followed a significant jump last year as the Covid-19 pandemic boosted demand for medical gloves.

Factors affecting investor confidence in the stocks include a potential decline in glove retail prices with lower demand as more people are vaccinated around the world, Ng said.

In addition, Top Glove’s plans to list in Hong Kong – the third public listing after Malaysia and Singapore – also sparked concerns that the company is raising funds in anticipation of a weaker outlook, he said.

But those concerns are likely to subside, Ng said. Here are its target prices for Malaysia’s glove inventory.

Affin Hwang’s target price for Malaysian glove stocks

Stocks Monday is over (Malaysian ringgit) Guide price (Malaysian ringgit) head
Top glove 5.04 10.10 100%
Hartalega 9.70 5 p.m. 75%
Super max 4.21 10.90 159%
Kossan 3.66 9.30 154%

Challenge to stay above pre-covid levels

The analyst said the increase in average glove retail prices was unsustainable and forecast a 30% to 35% price drop in 2022. Still, prices are likely to stay above pre-pandemic levels for at least the next two to three years. he said.

This is partly because the demand for gloves is expected to continue to grow in the coming years as the medical sector makes more personal protective equipment use, Ng said.

He added that he agreed with the report by consultants Frost and Sullivan, commissioned by Top Glove, which said demand for disposable gloves would grow an average of 15% annually for the next five years.

Such demand growth would be accompanied by a 20% annual supply increase over the next few years, Ng said.

Top Glove is planning a listing in Hong Kong

Another development that has fueled recent price moves in Malaysian glove stocks is Top Glove’s planned third listing in Hong Kong.

The company announced last month that it had applied for a “double primary listing” in Hong Kong that could raise up to 7.7 billion ringgit ($ 1.87 billion). It said it will keep its current primary listing in Malaysia and secondary listing in Singapore.

Investors reacted negatively to news that the additional listing would dilute Top Glove’s earnings per share.

Nonetheless, Ng has kept his buy recommendation for Top Glove and his Malaysian colleagues. He said the decline in stock prices had lowered valuations to levels “too cheap to ignore”.

The analyst added that Malaysian glove makers have a higher dividend yield and better return on equity compared to their international counterparts – a measure of financial performance.

Top Glove on Tuesday reported an increase in quarterly earnings to 2.87 billion ringgit ($ 695 million) for the three months ended February from 115.68 million ringgit ($ 28.03 million) a year ago.

The company said global demand for gloves continues to be “strong” as the Covid pandemic has led to an increase in glove use and hygiene awareness.

Categories
Health

$100 billion market cap is the blue sky state of affairs for Moderna: analyst

$100 billion market cap is the blue sky scenario for Moderna: analyst

The medic Robert Gilbertson loads a syringe with the vaccine Moderna Covid-19.

APU GOMES | AFP | Getty Images

Biotech and pharmaceutical company Moderna, a pioneer in developing coronavirus vaccines, has the potential to reach a market capitalization of over $ 100 billion, according to an analyst.

When asked what the blue sky scenario could look like for Moderna, whose coronavirus vaccine is 94% effective against severe Covid infections and who is already working on a booster shot to prevent the Hartaj Singh variant, which appears for the first time in South Africa CNBC, managing director and senior biotechnology analyst at Oppenheimer, told CNBC on Thursday that sales trends from similar companies showed what Moderna could see in the future.

“We’re alerting people to other companies in the biotech sector that have peaked or scored a rating when their first line of products was launched. Companies as diverse as Alexion, Regeneron, and Vertex are currently essentially peaking at about ten times future sales, future sales three to five years later. “

“I think with Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine franchise they are also starting to develop flu vaccines that should hit the market in the next few years. You know, we could see a $ 10 billion franchise in five to seven years. If you can If you put ten times the sales multiple and you can do the math, it’s a company with a market capitalization of over $ 100 billion, ”he told CNBC’s Street Signs Europe. The market value is currently just over 57 billion US dollars.

Moderna shares rose 3% in premarket trading on Thursday, as fourth-quarter revenue of $ 571 million far exceeded estimates of $ 318.9 million and was $ 14 million in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Covid-19 vaccine sales were projected to reach $ 18.4 billion in 2021, following $ 199.87 million in sales of Covid-19 vaccines in the fourth quarter. However, the company reported a quarterly stock loss of 69 cents, more than analysts’ forecast loss of 35 cents.

In the income statement, CEO Stephane Bancel said 2020 will be a historic year for Moderna and 2021 will be a “turning point” for the company.

“We used to believe that mRNA would lead to approved drugs, and our ambitions were constrained by the need for regular fundraising and multi-year cash holdings to manage funding risk. We now know that mRNA vaccines can be highly effective and approved and we are a cash flow generating trading company, ‘he said.

“We plan to accelerate and significantly increase our investment in science and expand our development pipeline faster. By implementing our priorities for 2021, we will advance our mission to deliver on the promise of mRNA science, a new generation of transformative drugs for patients This is just the beginning, “he said.

Booster vaccination

The drug maker announced on Wednesday that it would begin testing its new vaccine booster shot, Covid-19, which is said to provide better protection against a new variant of the virus, first discovered in South Africa. The biotech company said it sent cans of the shot to the U.S. National Institute of Health for testing.

Moderna’s current two-dose burst provokes a weaker immune response against the South African strain of the virus, which has been classified as more infectious than other variants, although the company said the antibodies in patients remain above levels expected to be prior to the virus protect.

“Moderna is committed to making as many updates as needed to our vaccine until the pandemic is under control,” Bancel said in a press release. “We hope to show that booster doses can be given at lower doses when needed, which will allow us to make many more doses available to the global community when needed in late 2021 and 2022.”

Separately, the company announced on Wednesday that it is expected to produce up to 700 million doses by 2021 and 1.4 billion Covid-19 vaccine doses by 2022, assuming the vaccine will be administered at its current level of 100 micrograms .

Should the vaccine turn out to be effective at a lower dose, the company could deliver up to 2.8 billion doses in 2022. Moderna has signed a contract with the US government to supply 300 million cans.

Disclaimer: Hartaj Singh does not hold any position in Modernas shares.

– CNBC’s Berkeley Lovelace contributed to this story.

Categories
Politics

C.I.A. analyst Morgan Muir to run Biden’s every day briefings

C.I.A. analyst Morgan Muir to run Biden’s daily briefings

For her part, Ms. Sanner was instrumental in providing Ms. Haines with full information through the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and working on White House inquiries for new intelligence assessments. But Ms. Sanner plans to “complete her tour in May,” said Amanda Schoch, the bureau’s top spokeswoman.

“Beth Sanner is an exceptional professional intelligence officer who has served as Deputy Director of the National Intelligence Services for Mission Integration with honors,” said Ms. Schoch.

For nearly two years, Ms. Sanner, a CIA analyst, briefed Mr. Trump on an assignment that required her to endure the president’s digressions, abuse, and conspiracy theories about the 2016 and 2020 elections. After 20 months as president and top advisor to five directors of the national intelligence agency, Ms. Sanner is ready to end her current role, according to an intelligence officer who was not authorized to speak publicly.

Ms. Sanner could retire, but it is also possible that she may be offered another high-level intelligence position. Some presidential representatives have held senior positions in the CIA, while others have directed other intelligence agencies.

Ms. Sanner, like most intelligence officers, was uncomfortable with media attention to her role in the Trump administration, which her colleagues did not do well for the intelligence community.

When Mr Trump was attacked for dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, he blamed Ms Sanner, if not by name, for a newscast that he said underestimated the dangers of the virus, a report that her defense lawyers were very skeptical of .

While all presidents are known to create bad days for senior intelligence officials, intelligence officials say no shorter president has had a more challenging job than Ms. Sanner. Until the last few months leading up to the election, when Mr Trump spoke frequently to his National Intelligence Director, John Ratcliffe, Ms. Sanner held meetings for the President twice a week.