A deadly attack on American and Afghan civilians would be a disaster not only for the US but also for the Taliban, who want to consolidate control over Kabul. The Taliban and the Islamic State were enemies and fought for control of parts of the country on the battlefield.
Understanding the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan
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Who are the Taliban? The Taliban emerged in 1994 amid the unrest following the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan in 1989. They used brutal public punishments, including flogging, amputation and mass executions, to enforce their rules. Here is more about their genesis and track record as rulers.
Who are the Taliban leaders? These are the top leaders of the Taliban, men who for years have been on the run, in hiding, in prison and dodged American drones. Little is known about them or how they plan to rule, including whether they will be as tolerant as they say they are.
What is happening to the women of Afghanistan? When the Taliban was last in power, they banned women and girls from most jobs or from going to school. Afghan women have gained a lot since the Taliban was overthrown, but now they fear that they are losing ground. Taliban officials are trying to reassure women that things will be different, but there are indications that they have begun to reintroduce the old order in at least some areas.
Western counter-terrorism analysts say a high-profile attack by ISIS during the evacuation would most likely add to the group’s dwindling wealth, recruitment and prestige.
A June United Nations report found that “Islamic State’s territorial losses have affected the group’s ability to recruit and generate new funds.”
Although the ISIS affiliate was believed to still have 1,500 to 2,200 fighters in small areas of Kunar and Nangarhar provinces, the report said, “It has been forced to decentralize and consists mainly of cells and small groups across the country that act autonomously ”. while they share the same ideology. “
While the group suffered military setbacks from the summer of 2018, the report concluded that since June 2020, under its ambitious new leader Shahab al-Muhajir, the subsidiary has “remained active and dangerous” and is trying to increase its ranks with disaffected Taliban fighters and other militants.
“Given that ISIS-K and the Taliban are enemies, it will be a challenge for ISIS-K,” said Clarke. “Nevertheless, the Taliban now have their hands full governing, which will consume a considerable amount of bandwidth within the organization.”
Nathan Sales, the State Department’s Counter-Terrorism Coordinator in the Trump administration, said on Sunday that if the ISIS affiliate were able to attack the Kabul airport, “it suggests that Afghanistan may be after the departure of the USA will be a permissive environment for all types of terrorist groups. even those who are hostile to the Taliban. “
