China’s efforts to expand its growing influence pose one of the greatest threats to the United States, according to a major annual intelligence report released Tuesday that also warned that Beijing is capable of cyberattacks affecting the critical infrastructure in the United States Temporarily disrupt the United States.
In the report, China’s quest for “global power” ranks first on the list of threats, followed by Russia, Iran and North Korea. There are usually few general revelations in the annual reports that are a collection of approved reviews, although the ranking of intelligence threats and how they change over time can be meaningful.
“Beijing, Moscow, Tehran and Pyongyang have demonstrated the ability and intent to advance their interests at the expense of the United States and its allies despite the pandemic,” the report said. “China is increasingly a peer-to-peer competitor, challenging the US in a variety of areas – particularly economic, military, and technological – and pushing to change global norms.”
The section on Iran could influence negotiations on the re-entry of the United States into the nuclear deal. It is important that the intelligence services assess that Iran “is not currently engaged in the most important nuclear weapon development activities” required to build a nuclear device. However, according to the report, Iranian leaders will most likely be reluctant to hold talks with the United States without relieving sanctions.
The intelligence rating also offered a grim assessment of Afghanistan, just days before President Biden will announce when he will be pulling the last troops out of the country. Intelligence agencies believe the prospects for a peace deal remain slim and the Taliban are likely to make profits on the battlefield, the report said. Over the past few weeks, officials who said American troops should stay longer have used the assessment to reinforce their arguments.
China’s strategy, according to the report, is to drive wedges between the United States and its allies. Beijing has also used its success in fighting the Covid-19 pandemic to promote “system superiority”.
The report predicts that China will urge the Taiwanese government to move forward with unification and will criticize the United States’ efforts to step up engagement with Taipei. However, the report did not predict any direct military conflict.
China is using its electronic surveillance and hacking capabilities not only to suppress dissent within its country, but also to intervene that affects people outside its borders, the report said. China also poses a growing threat from cyberattacks against the United States, and intelligence agencies assess that Beijing “can at least cause localized, temporary disruptions to critical infrastructure in the United States.”
There are few surprises when it comes to assessing the secret service in Russia. It makes it clear that American spy agencies still view Moscow as a pre-eminent threat, despite many viewing Moscow as a declining power. They discover that a Russian supply chain hacking operation has created vulnerabilities in around 18,000 computer networks around the world. The assessment said that while Russia would avoid direct conflict with America, it would use campaigns of influence, mercenary operations, and military exercises to advance its interests and undermine those of the United States.
While the report highlights the traditional types of national security threats the nation faces, it gives a nod to the challenges of climate change and global pandemics that the Biden government has announced that intelligence agencies will investigate more closely. The threats are largely long-term, but can also have short-term effects, the report said.
“The American people should know as much as possible about the threats our nation faces and what their intelligence agencies are doing to protect them,” said Avril B. Haines, the director of the national intelligence agency whose office wrote the report published.
The new report is followed by statements from Congress by Mrs Haines; William J. Burns, the CIA director; and other senior intelligence officials on Wednesday and Thursday.
