This cycle repeated itself over the next few years as several of Myanmar’s slow-burning riots burned.
“It was actually much tougher than the military,” Connelly said, referring to a particularly bloody campaign in Rakhine, a region that has long been in trouble. “The military has declared a ceasefire and Aung San Suu Kyi should play her part in organizing elections in Rakhine State. She refused to do that, and so the truce was lost. “
These episodes deepened the feeling of a zero-sum and even deadly power struggle and “created conditions for a conservative insurrection” among military officers, Paliwal said, citing his time on the ground in Rakhine during some of the heaviest fighting.
A bloodless, but no less violent battle took place in the capital. In January 2020, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, apparently hoping to replace the lost international allies with military defense, received Xi Jinping, China’s leader, on a state visit.
But Myanmar military leaders widely see China as an enemy propping up their country’s uprisings. The junta is believed to have given up part of power as a move to break China’s hold in the country in hopes that Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi would bring Western support. Instead, she marched Mr. Xi through the capital.
Two months later, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi tried to push through constitutional amendments that would have gradually reduced the military’s share in parliament from 25 to 5 percent. Though it failed, it was a political shot over the bow of an institution with the power to fire actual shots in return.
Her party won the November elections in a blowout and further reduced the seat share of the military representative party. General Min Aung Hlaing was due to retire later that year. To the generals it may have looked like a window was closing.
