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How Parler deplatforming exhibits energy of Amazon, cloud suppliers

Andy Jassy, ​​CEO of Amazon Web Services.

CNBC

Launching Amazon Web Services is rare, but it has enormous consequences.

It came this week when Amazon dropped Parler, a social network that caught on with conservatives after Twitter banned President Donald Trump and included content that encouraged violence. Parler filed a lawsuit against Amazon in federal district court to prevent Amazon from suspending Parler’s account, and Amazon pushed back, asking the court to deny Parler’s motion.

The incident shows a kind of power that Amazon wields almost uniquely because so many companies rely on it to provide computers and data storage. According to estimates by technology research firm Gartner, Amazon controlled 45% of cloud infrastructure in 2019, more than any other company. The app survived without being listed in the Apple and Google app stores. However, by sending from the Amazon cloud, Parler is not represented on the Internet for days.

Parler’s engineering team had developed software that relied on computer resources from Amazon Web Services, and the company had spoken to Amazon about introducing a proprietary AWS database and artificial intelligence services, the company said in a court case on Wednesday With.

It would take some time to figure out how to perform similar functions on Parler’s own servers or a cloud other than AWS. And in the case of Parler, time is of the essence as the service gained attention and new users after the Trump ban on Twitter.

Parler’s engineers could learn to use other computing infrastructures, or the company could hire developers who already have this knowledge. However, since no cloud provider is as popular as Amazon, Oracle’s clouds, for example, are not as easy to find as those who know how to build on AWS.

The warnings were there

The speed with which Amazon acted shouldn’t come as a shock. Companies have been posting details of their dealings with Amazon for years warning of such sudden crashes.

In 2010, DNA sequencing company Complete Genomics said that “if Amazon Web Services disrupted the services we rely on to deliver ready-made genomic data to our customers, our customers would not receive their data on time.”

Gaming company Zynga warned its AWS foundation could quickly disappear when it filed for prospectus for its IPO in 2011. At the time, AWS was hosting half of the traffic for Zynga’s games like FarmVille and Words with Friends.

“AWS may terminate the agreement without giving reasons with 180 days ‘notice in writing and terminate the agreement with 30 days’ notice in writing for good cause, including all material failures or violations of the agreement by us that we do not within the 30th – Time of day, “said Zynga.

AWS may even immediately terminate or suspend its agreement with a customer in certain circumstances, as was the case with Wikileaks in 2010, indicating violations of the AWS Terms of Service.

Parler began using AWS in 2018, long after the Wikileaks incident and the first company disclosures about the possibility of cloud disruptions.

When AWS announced to Parler that it was planning to block Parler’s AWS account, Parler repeatedly violated the rules, including by not owning or controlling the rights to its content.

Over the course of several weeks, AWS Parler drew attention to cases of user content that led to violence, Amazon said in a lawsuit. Additional content emerged after protesters stormed the Washington Capitol on January 6, disrupting Congress’ confirmation of the electoral college’s results in the 2020 presidential election. AWS said that Parler had not done enough to quickly remove this type of information from its social network.

Parler could have protected himself better. Large AWS customers can sign up for broader agreements that give more customers time to comply when they break the rules.

Gartner analyst Lydia Leong explained this difference in a blog post: “Thirty days is a common time frame specified as a curing period in contracts (and the curing period in the AWS Standard Corporate Agreement), but it is click-through agreements from cloud providers (e.g., because the AWS customer agreement) does not typically have a curing period, action can be taken immediately at the provider’s discretion, “she wrote.

Other cloud providers have their own set of conditions that their customers must follow. AWS now has millions of customers and holds more of the cloud infrastructure market than any other provider. As a result, if they don’t behave according to Amazon’s standards, many companies could be exposed to the type of treatment Parler has received, rare as it is.

Parler recognized the drawbacks of being committed to a cloud provider, but ultimately the flexibility offered by the clouds was too attractive to ignore. “Personally, I’m very much against the cloud and anti-centralization, even though AWS has its place for high-frequency traffic,” wrote Alexander Blair, Parler’s chief technology officer, in a post about the service.

Parler and Amazon did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

CLOCK: Apple pulls Parler out of the App Store while cracking down on violent posts

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Migrant Caravan, Now in Guatemala, May Pose Early Check for Biden

Thousands of migrants from Honduras have entered Guatemala and are planning to travel further north to the United States. This could represent an early test of the immigration policy of President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr., who has pledged to ease the Trump administration’s asylum restrictions.

After a few hundred people were able to pass the border police on Friday, thousands more followed to Guatemala on Saturday. Officials said between 7,000 and 9,000 people have entered the country, many bypassing coronavirus controls.

The government of Guatemala said it “regrets this violation of national sovereignty and calls on the Central American governments to take action to avoid putting their residents and the communities they roam through in the face of the pandemic.”

Migrants are expected to continue to encounter obstacles on their way. The Guatemalan authorities set up checkpoints, blocked parts of the caravan not far from their entry into Guatemala and were able to take some of the migrants back home by bus, The Associated Press reported.

Mexican authorities have dispatched additional troops and immigration officers along the country’s southern border in anticipation of the caravan.

“In our national territory we must ensure orderly, safe and regular migration, respecting human rights and humanitarian policy,” said Francisco Garduño Yáñez, head of the National Immigration Institute in Mexico, in a statement on Friday.

Members of the group told reporters they were forced to escape the crime, poverty and homelessness exacerbated by the pandemic and two hurricanes late last year.

“We have nothing to feed our children and thousands of us have slept on the street,” Maria Jesus Paz, mother of four, told Reuters. She said her family lost their homes in the storms and forced her to flee.

“That’s why we’re making this decision, knowing that the trip could cost us our lives,” she added.

The successive hurricanes that struck Central America in November “devastated livelihoods in a region already facing economic downturn and where the incomes of thousands of families had already plummeted as a result of the pandemic,” according to the International Committee of the Red Cross said on Saturday.

The Trump administration has made a number of agreements with Mexico and Central American countries to prevent migrants from reaching the United States. Mark Morgan, the acting commissioner for customs and border protection, said Saturday that Guatemala is continuing to enforce this agreement.

“Guatemala continues to support the regional alliance committed to safe, orderly and legal migration and the protection of public health during the global pandemic,” Morgan said on Twitter. Guatemala’s immigration service “is already returning caravan members to Honduras after illegally entering Guatemala.”

During the presidential campaign, Mr Biden said he would act quickly to lift the Trump administration’s stricter asylum restrictions, which disqualified people not seeking refuge on their way to the United States and forcing asylum seekers to wait in Mexico.

On his first day in office, Mr. Biden plans to ask Congress for a major overhaul of immigration laws. This proposal, which will be released Wednesday, includes a path to citizenship for 11 million undocumented immigrants now living in the United States, assistance to damaged Central American economies, and plans to help people escape violence.

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UK man makes last-ditch effort to get better misplaced bitcoin onerous drive

The reflection of bitcoins on a computer hard drive.

Thomas Trutschel | Photo library via Getty Images

LONDON – A British man who accidentally threw away a hard drive containing a lot of Bitcoin, again urges local city officials to have him look for it in a landfill.

James Howells, a 35-year-old IT engineer from Newport, Wales, said he threw the device away when he cleared his house in 2013. He claims he has two identical laptop hard drives and wrongly needed the one with the cryptographic “private key” to access his bitcoins and spend them in the trash.

After all these years, Howells is still confident that he can get the bitcoin back. Although the outer part of the hard drive could be damaged and rusted, he believes the hard drive inside could still be intact.

“There’s a good chance the disk in the drive is still intact,” he told CNBC. “Data recovery experts could then rebuild the drive or read the data directly from the platter.”

Howells says he has 7,500 bitcoins, which at today’s prices would be worth more than $ 280 million. He says the only way to get it back is by using the hard drive that he threw in the trash eight years ago.

But he needs permission from his local council to search a dump that he believes contains the lost hardware. The landfill is not open to the public and entering it is considered a criminal offense.

Howells has offered to donate 25% of the shipment, valued at around $ 70.8 million, to a Covid Relief Fund for his hometown if he can dig up the hard drive. He has also promised to fund the excavation project with the support of an undisclosed hedge fund.

However, Newport City Council has so far denied its search requests, citing environmental and financial concerns. And it doesn’t seem like local officials will budge anytime soon.

“As far as I know, they have already turned down the offer,” Howells said. “Without even hearing our plan of action or having the opportunity to present our mitigation of their environmental concerns, it’s just a resounding no every time.”

A spokesman for the council told CNBC that it had “been contacted several times since 2013 to investigate the possibility of retrieving a piece of IT hardware believed to contain bitcoins.” The first time “several months” after Howells first discovered the drive was gone.

“The council has told Mr Howells on several occasions that excavations are not possible under our permit and that excavations themselves would have a huge impact on the environment in the area,” said the council spokesman.

“The cost of digging the landfill, storing and treating the waste could run into millions of pounds with no guarantees that it will be found or that it will still work.”

It’s not hard to imagine why Howells would want to save the equipment. Bitcoin prices have skyrocketed in the last few months, hitting an all-time high near $ 42,000 last week before falling sharply.

The New York Times reported Tuesday that a programmer in San Francisco was banned from 7,002 bitcoins – valued at around $ 267.8 million today – for forgetting the password used to unlock a small hard drive with the private one Key to a digital wallet was required.

Bitcoin’s network is decentralized, which means that it is not controlled by a single person but by a computer network. Every transaction comes from a wallet with a “private key”. This is a digital signature and provides mathematical proof that the transaction came from the owner of the wallet.

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That is how U.Okay. scientists discovered the variant.

Suddenly the coronavirus seemed to be changing.

For months, Dr. Steven Kemp, an infectious disease expert, a global library of coronavirus genomes. He was studying how the virus mutated in the lungs of a patient struggling to shake a raging infection in a nearby Cambridge hospital and wanted to know if those changes would occur in other people.

At the end of November, Dr. Kemp then came up with a surprising match: some of the same mutations seen in the patient, as well as other changes, kept coming back in newly infected people, mostly in the UK.

Worse still, the changes focused on the spike protein that is used by the virus to attach to human cells, suggesting that a virus that is already wreaking havoc around the world has evolved in ways that could make it even more contagious .

“There are a lot of mutations that go along with the same frequency,” he wrote to Dr. Ravindra Gupta, a Cambridge virologist. He listed the most disturbing changes and added, “ALL of these sequences have the following spike mutants.”

The two researchers didn’t know yet, but they had found a new, highly contagious variant of the coronavirus that has since spread across the UK, shaking scientists’ understanding of the virus and threatening to prevent global recovery from the pandemic.

A consortium of British disease researchers, long-time torchbearers in genomics who had helped track the Ebola and Zika epidemics, became known. They gathered on Slack and video calls, comparing notes as they searched for clues, including a tip from scientists in South Africa about another new variation there. Others have since appeared in Brazil.

For almost a year, scientists had only observed incremental changes in the coronavirus and expected more of them. The new variants forced them to change their thinking, suggesting a new phase in the pandemic where the virus could develop to the point that vaccines will be undermined.

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International Amazon websites named in U.S. ‘infamous markets’ listing for counterfeit items

Peter Endig | AFP | Getty Images

A handful of Amazon’s overseas websites have been added to the US government’s annual “Notorious Markets” list due to concerns that they may host counterfeit goods.

The USTR (United States Trade Representative) office released its review of the infamous markets in 2020 on Thursday. The list includes e-commerce websites and companies that are believed to facilitate the sale of counterfeit goods, and to commit intellectual property violations or piracy.

Amazon websites in the UK, Germany, Spain, France and Italy were named in the report. Complainants against the overseas websites alleged that the process of removing counterfeit products from Amazon is slow, even for companies participating in its trademark protection programs. They also argued that Amazon does not thoroughly scrutinize third-party sellers in its market or make it clear to brands and consumers “who is selling the goods”.

Amazon denied the sales agent’s report, which did not include Amazon’s US website, citing its extensive programs and tools designed to stop counterfeiters.

“Amazon’s inclusion in this report is a continuation of a personal revenge against Amazon and nothing more than a desperate stunt in the last days of this administration,” an Amazon spokesman told CNBC in a statement. “Amazon is doing more against counterfeiting than any other private organization known to us.”

USTR officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized Amazon and its CEO Jeff Bezos during his four-year tenure. Bezos owns the Washington Post, which Trump has criticized for its unfavorable reporting on his administration. Amazon has also claimed it did not win a Pentagon cloud computing deal that could be worth up to $ 10 billion due to attacks by Trump against the company and Bezos.

Amazon websites were first added to the USTR’s Notorious Markets list in 2019. The American Apparel & Footwear Association asked the sales representative in 2018 to add some Amazon websites to the list.

In addition to Amazon, the other companies featured on the list include Chinese e-commerce website Pinduoduo, South American e-commerce company Mercadolibre, and file-sharing website The Pirate Bay.

Amazon has stepped up its counterfeit containment efforts as the third-party market has grown. The marketplace now accounts for more than half of the company’s total revenue and is home to millions of third-party providers.

While it continues to be an important component of Amazon’s business, the market has also faced a number of issues related to the sale of counterfeit, unsafe, and expired goods. In 2019, Amazon started mentioning counterfeit products as a risk factor in its annual filing.

The company has prosecuted counterfeiters in court, launched various programs to search for and detect sales of counterfeit goods, and in June set up the Counterfeit Crime Division, composed of former federal attorneys, investigators, and data analysts, to break down the website for fraudulent activity.

As a result of this and other efforts, 99.9% of the pages viewed by customers on the site never had a valid forgery report, the spokesman said.

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Indonesia Earthquake Kills Dozens and Injures Lots of

A 6.2 magnitude earthquake struck the west coast of the Indonesian island of Sulawesi early Friday, killing at least 46 people, destroying homes, flattening a hospital and triggering landslides.

Rescuers looked for people trapped in the rubble. More than 600 people are said to have been injured in the quake inland between the coastal cities of Mamuju and Majene. No tsunami warning was issued.

“I’m afraid to say how many deaths there are,” said Ardiansyah, a West Sulawesi province emergency officer who, like many Indonesians, uses a name. “We’re evacuating and we’re still building shelters. Many people are buried under the ruins. “

The National Disaster Mitigation Agency announced on Saturday that at least 46 people were killed in the quake. Most of the deaths occurred in Mamuju, the larger of the two coastal cities.

Disaster officials said they expected the number of deaths and injuries from Friday’s earthquake to increase as they received information from cut off areas. At least one bridge was destroyed, roads damaged and communications restricted. The provincial governor’s office in Mamuju was also damaged.

A video released by the Indonesian Civil Protection Agency shows a girl, identified only as an angel, trapped in the ruins of her family’s home. Only her face is visible through a gap in the rubble. At least three others were trapped in the house with her, officials said.

In the video, she tells the rescue workers that she can hear the voice of another girl who is trapped nearby and cannot move.

A rescuer asks, “Is she still breathing?”

Angel replies, “Still. But it is difficult.”

In Mamuju, Mitra Hospital collapsed in the quake. Officials said at least five nurses and patients were trapped inside. Mamuju Government Hospital was also badly damaged, officials said. It was unclear whether anyone had been killed in any of the hospitals.

The flight control tower at Mamuju Commercial Airport was damaged by the quake, and flight control tasks were taken over from the air traffic control office in Makassar, south of Mamuju.

Authorities warned the public to avoid buildings because of the possibility of another major earthquake. Thousands of people sought refuge in emergency shelters.

Six tremors, magnitude 2.9 and greater, were recorded in the 12 hours prior to the great quake at 2:28 a.m. local time. Nine aftershocks were recorded in the hours that followed.

Indonesia lies on the so-called Ring of Fire, a line of seismic and volcanic activity that orbits much of the Pacific Ocean and is very prone to earthquakes and tsunamis. In 2018, hundreds more died in an earthquake on the island of Lombok and hundreds more in the islands of Java and Sumatra in a quake and tsunami caused by the eruption of the Anak Krakatau volcano.

Muktita Suhartono contributed to the coverage.

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Citigroup earnings This autumn 2020 beat revenue estimates

Jane Fraser, General Manager for Latin America at Citigroup Inc., speaks during the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California on Monday, April 29, 2019.

Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg via Getty Images

Citigroup released fourth quarter results on Friday that beat analysts’ earnings estimates as the company partnered with rival JPMorgan Chase to free up reserves for credit losses.

Earnings fell 7% to $ 4.63 billion, or $ 2.08 per share, compared to $ 1.34 per share expected by analysts surveyed by Refinitiv, according to Citigroup. Company-wide revenue declined 10% to $ 16.5 billion, below the estimate of $ 16.7 billion.

The bank released $ 1.5 billion in reserves for loan losses, a move larger than analysts expected. That compares with a reserve build-up of $ 436 million in the third quarter and $ 253 million a year ago. As a result, borrowing costs for the period were more than $ 2 billion lower than a year ago.

Over the past year, banks have allocated tens of billions of dollars in provisions for loan losses in the expectation that shutdowns caused by the Covid shutdown would force customers large and small to default on credit. Now it seems like the industry has turned a corner and will begin releasing some of those reserves, increasing earnings and their ability to buy back stocks this year.

“As a sign of the strength and longevity of our diversified franchise, our sales remained unchanged through 2019 despite the massive economic impact of COVID-19,” said outgoing CEO Mike Corbat in the press release.

Citigroup shares fell 6.2%.

Citigroup made history when it announced that Jane Fraser would take over the running of the company. This made it the first major Wall Street bank to be run by a woman. Weeks before her successor at Corbat, Fraser spoke to investors and analysts for the first time on Friday. Shareholders wanted to know how Fraser, a former McKinsey partner who led Citi’s Latin American operations before becoming president in 2019, will improve the company’s bottom line.

Fraser said she is embarking on a review of the company’s strategy to best position it to meet its ROI targets and meet regulatory requirements.

“We’re taking a clinical look at our strategic positioning and assessing which companies can achieve leading market positions in a much more digitalized world,” said Fraser. “Like any true Scot, I believe there is value in unlocking by simplifying the company.”

Citigroup, the third largest US bank by assets, was hurt by relatively poor performance when compared to competitors such as JPMorgan Chase. The results have frustrated investors, including activist hedge fund ValueAct. The bank is also working on a government agency agreement to improve its internal risk controls after it accidentally sent nearly $ 900 million to Revlon lenders last year.

Citigroup has announced that trading sales will increase 15% year over year in the fourth quarter, while investment banking fees should increase 10% to 15%.

The shares of the New York-based bank fell 23% last year, compared with the KBW Bank Index’s 4.3% decline.

Here are the numbers:

  • Earnings: $ 2.08 per share versus $ 1.34 per share for analysts surveyed by Refinitiv.
  • Revenue: $ 16.5 billion versus an estimate of $ 16.7 billion.

JPMorgan on Friday reported fourth quarter earnings and sales that were above estimates.

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Dutch Authorities Resigns After Advantages Scandal

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, one of Europe’s longest-serving leaders, and his cabinet resigned on Friday over a report highlighting his government’s systematic failure to protect thousands of families from overzealous tax inspectors.

Mr Rutte and his cabinet will continue to lead the government as caretakers. The general elections are planned for March. His center-right party is currently leading the polls. The other parties in his coalition that were also affected by the scandal are not expected to call for earlier elections because of the coronavirus pandemic.

“Mistakes have been made at all levels that have resulted in great injustice for thousands of families. Innocent people were criminalized and their lives were destroyed, “said Rutte in a press conference. “This cabinet has taken full responsibility.” Mr Rutte said the report that led to the downfall of the cabinet was “tough as nails” but “fair”.

Mr Rutte submitted his resignation and that of his entire cabinet after cycling to see King Willem-Alexander van Oranje. He had served his third term as Prime Minister and had headed the Netherlands since 2010. If his party receives the largest share of the vote in the upcoming election, he can take up a fourth term.

The report, the result of an investigation that also interviewed Mr Rutte, concluded that innocent families had suffered “unprecedented injustice”, some of whom were forced to repay large amounts of childcare benefits immediately.

In many cases, an administrative error such as a missing signature was enough for the tax authority to label parents as fraudsters and fine families with up to tens of thousands of euros, the report says.

“Basic principles of the rule of law have been violated,” she concluded, blowing up both government and parliament for creating “rock-hard laws” that had little room for individual cases to be fairly considered.

The chairman of the parliamentary committee that led the investigation, Chris van Dam, said the system put in place to track down benefit fraud is “a mass process with no room for nuance”.

In a separate investigation, the Dutch data protection authority came to the conclusion that tax inspectors had discriminated against citizens with dual nationalities.

Former Vice President of the Dutch State Council, Herman Tjeenk Willink, added to the allegations of systematic failure by calling on parliamentarians to also take responsibility for voting in the strict laws.

“You should look yourself in the mirror,” he wrote in a comment in the NRC Handelsblad, “and question your own role in the matter.”

Insiders expected that Mr. Rutte would easily shake off any criticism. “Yes, it’s a shame this happened under Rutte’s responsibility,” said Joost Vullings, a political commentator, “but if anyone knows how not to be ashamed, it’s our prime minister.” He will go all out to win the upcoming elections. ”

Mr Rutte said last month that the tax campaign described in the December report was “shameful” and that the government had announced that nearly 10,000 families will receive compensation of € 30,000 or about $ 36,500 each. Earlier this week, Mr Rutte insisted that the government should not resign as it could weaken the nation’s response to the pandemic.

The Netherlands has been grappling with the coronavirus since March, and its inability to contain the spread of the disease has highlighted what many are calling systemic problems with overregulation. Like many countries in Europe, the Netherlands is also blocked.

A November report ranked the government as one of the world’s leading tax havens for large companies, so the persecution of individuals for relatively small amounts did not go unnoticed.

This duality and others in Dutch politics underscore the drawbacks of the Dutch polder model, a system where every important decision is reviewed by every institution, representative or even person involved. The result is always a compromise.

“This matter is an example of a systematic error that has emerged from our coalition policy where each party scores points for its own supporters,” said Sheila Sitalsing, a commentator for de Volkskrant, “but the final compromise can no longer be implemented . ” for those who have to work with it every day. ”

Ms. Sitalsing also said voters have been rewarding politicians who promise stricter rules for two decades. “So that’s what you get,” she said of the child benefit scandal.

Families referred to by the tax authority on Tuesday increased pressure on Mr Rutte by asking his cabinet to step down in an open letter published in the Trouw newspaper.

“What needs to be done is clear: everything should be fixed and cleaned up,” said a group of families. “We don’t think the current cabinet is capable of that.”

In a move that is unique in the Netherlands, the families filed criminal charges this week against five politicians, including Finance Minister Wopke Hoekstra and Economy Minister Eric Wiebes, for their role in the matter. If convicted, they face up to six months in prison.

“We have brought criminal charges because the victims I represent have been ruined. Some became homeless as a result of these guidelines. These politicians have been extremely negligent, ”said Vasco Groeneveld, a lawyer who represents 20 victims. “Every time I open your files, shivers run down my spine. These people were treated terribly. “

Mr Wiebes, who was finance minister in a previous cabinet, will resign immediately and not stay in the caretaker government, NOS reported.

On Thursday, opposition leader Lodewijk Asscher, a former minister of social affairs, resigned for his role as leader of the Dutch Labor Party. His resignation increased the pressure on Mr. Rutte to reconsider his position.

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Fund supervisor warns Biden’s spending plan might pop inventory market bubble

People gather on Wall Street in front of the New York Stock Exchange, October 25, 1929.

Ullstein picture | Getty Images

President-elect Joe Biden’s Covid spending plan could restore financial conditions leading up to the Wall Street crash of 1929, with rising inflation possibly causing the bursting of an “epic” stock market bubble, according to a hedge fund manager.

The comments come shortly after Biden outlined the details of a $ 1.9 trillion bailout to help households and businesses through the coronavirus pandemic.

David Neuhauser, executive director of the small Chicago-based hedge fund Livermore Partner, said Biden’s spending plan was an attempt to mimic the “roaring 20s” by getting people back on the workforce quickly.

“But be careful, the ‘roaring 20s’ led to the stock market crash and the Great Depression in 1929. So be careful what you want,” he added.

If the American Rescue Plan is passed by the new democratically-controlled Congress, it will include $ 1 trillion in direct aid to households, $ 415 billion to fight the virus, and approximately $ 440 billion to small businesses.

“We don’t just have an economic need to act now – I think we have a moral obligation,” Biden said Thursday as he announced his plan from his interim headquarters in Delaware.

The former vice president is due to be inaugurated on January 20th.

US President-elect Joe Biden speaks out on January 14, 2021 at the Queen Theater in Wilmington, Delaware, on the public health and economic crises.

Jim Watson | AFP | Getty Images

When asked if investors should be concerned that the president-elect’s spending plan could lead to an event like the stock market crash of 1929, Neuhauser replied, “I think so.”

“You are seeing this massive $ 1 trillion deficit spending due to a pandemic that the world has naturally stopped for the past nine months, and the goals, of course, are, ‘We’re going to get a vaccine (and) we’re going to get through this,” said Neuhauser opposite CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe”.

“We still don’t know how quickly and how quickly we can get through this. We also don’t know what global growth will look like in the years to come.”

After the stock market crash of October 29, 1929, the S&P 500 fell 86% in less than three years and did not exceed its previous high until 1954.

Neuhauser cited the expectation that US GDP (gross domestic product) could grow by 6% in 2021, but warned that growth is likely to normalize at a rate between 2% and 3% in subsequent years. An aging US population and massive corporate and national debt would also mean it’s likely a “hard road”, he said.

Neuhauser’s view, however, is not a consensus. James Sullivan, head of Asia Ex-Japan Equity Research at JPMorgan, told CNBC on Friday that Biden’s plan was more than double what the bank had expected.

So it was a “positive surprise” for the market and for general US growth in the years to come.

Separately, Goldman Sachs analysts increased their estimates of US household spending in the news in a release on Friday.

They noted that Biden’s proposal on individual stimulus payments, unemployment benefits, state tax subsidies and public health funding went further than expected, but stressed that he faced hurdles in going through Congress.

Inflation warning

US stock futures were lower Friday morning, with contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 89 points while the S&P and Nasdaq both traded in negative territory. The major US indices are currently on track to close the lower week to date.

Even so, the Dow and Nasdaq posted new all-time highs for the day in the previous session, while the S&P closed around 0.81% of its record high.

“The market is trying to figure out which narrative they should go with. And in the past nine months it has risen almost in a straight line in relation to the stock markets,” said Neuhauser.

“I think what happens in the end is that (there) so much is going to be built into the market and (we) will eventually start inflationary factors coming in. Those are the things that will ultimately burst the epic bubble.”

Earlier this week, data showed that US consumer prices rose in December on a spike in gasoline prices, but underlying inflation remained relatively low. The U.S. Department of Labor announced Wednesday that its consumer price index rose 0.4% last month, after rising 0.2% in November.

In the 12 months to December, the CPI rose 1.4% after rising 1.2% in November. The numbers were largely in line with economists’ expectations.

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Your Friday Briefing – The New York Instances

Clock: The Swiss drama “My little sister” about a sibling’s cancer diagnosis in the end-stage. Our reviewer describes it as “big and small in heart”.

To sing: A sailor’s song. In the past two weeks, a TikTok video of a Scottish postman singing a whaling ballad has been duetted thousands of times by professional musicians, maritime enthusiasts and a puppet from Kermit the Frog, among others.

Make the most of this weekend indoors. At Home offers a comprehensive collection of ideas on what to read, cook, see, and do while staying safe at home.

F. Scott Fitzgerald’s classic novel “The Great Gatsby” is now in the public domain, which means that writers can dismantle the characters and plot for their own purposes without asking for permission or paying a fee.

The book has already been converted into a graphic novel, while independently published variations of the novel include “The Gay Gatsby” by BA Baker and the zombie-themed “The Great Gatsby Undead” by Kristen Briggs. (From the promotional copy for Briggs’ book, “Gatsby doesn’t seem to be eating and dislikes silver, garlic, and the sun, but good friends are hard to make.”)

The most ambitious early entry might be “Nick,” a Michael Farris Smith novel that focuses on the life of Nick Carraway, Fitzgerald’s narrator, before arriving on Long Island and entering Gatsby’s orbit.

All of this follows several films, theatrical adaptations, and other retelling. Gatsby inspired a Taylor Swift song – “Happiness” on her latest record interweaves lines and images from the novel. And even the smallest characters had spin-offs – Pammie, 3 years old in Fitzgerald’s book, told her own story in “Daisy Buchanan’s Daughter” by Tom Carson.