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Russia, Putin and Alexei Navalny: What occurs subsequent?

Riot police during an unauthorized rally in support of Alexei Navalny in central Moscow on February 2, 2021.

Mikhail Tereshchenko | TASS | Getty Images

The arrest of opposition leader Alexei Navalny in Russia has been widely awaited by Russian observers, but experts say what comes next will likely depend on the dynamics of the protests in support of Navalny, whether the West decides to punish Russia and how the Kremlin does responded to growing unrest in the country.

Navalny, who is widely regarded as one of Putin’s most prominent critics, was sentenced to three and a half years in prison on Tuesday for breaking parole. The allegations he and his team made were fabricated and politically motivated.

The judge said the year Navalny has already spent under house arrest (around 10 months) will be deducted from his prison sentence. Navalny’s defense team has announced that it will appeal the court ruling.

Protests against Navalny’s first imprisonment in mid-January and immediately after his return from Germany to Russia, where he had been treated for nerve agent poisoning since last summer, were carried out over the last two weekends in Russia and again outside the US on Tuesday in the Moscow Court, where the Judgment was made.

The verdict was widely condemned by Western governments, but the US and Europe did not threaten further sanctions against Russia for the time being, as both demanded the immediate and unconditional release of Navalny.

US Senator Mitt Romney, R-Utah, indicated in a tweet that further sanctions could be imposed on Russia, which is already operating under Western restrictions due to the annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and, among other things, has entered the US Meddles in 2016 elections.

Timothy Ash, a leading emerging markets strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, believes more sanctions will come.

“We may not see this promotion this week, it may take weeks / months, but I think when it comes we will be surprised by its scope / scope,” Ash said via email.

“This is not a case of a step-by-step approach, but an overall picture, a common approach to countering the Russian threat. And hit Russia hard from the start – to make it clear to Putin, we know what you’re doing, we know when you get your card we know all you understand is power, and here it is. “

Ash said he expected “a rolling approach to roll back Putin’s offensive campaign against western liberal market democracies.”

More protests?

The scale and extent of the West’s reaction against Russia remains to be seen, but this could also affect the dynamism of the pro-navalny protests in Russia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said police had the right to use harsh methods to break off protests by supporters of Navalny who had gathered outside the Moscow court where the hearing took place.

Peskov also said calls from Navalny’s allies for Russians to take to the streets after he was jailed on Tuesday were a provocation, Reuters reported. More than 1,400 supporters of Navalny in 10 cities were arrested on Tuesday, according to the OVD-Info monitoring group.

The US, Germany and France are among the Western nations that have condemned the violence against protesters in Russia and called for Navalny to be released immediately.

Russia has rejected this criticism, defended the police’s response to protests and accused Western countries of double standards.

“With regard to the events in Russia and not only in Navalny, the reporting of the West is selective and one-sided,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in a press conference on Wednesday, Tass news agency reported.

“The hysteria we heard about the Navalny trial is far exaggerated,” he added.

Daragh McDowell, Russia’s chief analyst at risk analysis firm Verisk Maplecroft, said the conviction and imprisonment of Navalny would “represent a massive blow to the opposition that has lost one of its most effective organizers and communicators.”

The movement continued to suffer as other members of the Navalny National Organization were also arrested and detained. Whether the protests can continue at their current level is unknown.

“The key question is whether the current wave of protests sparked by Navalny’s arrest has reached a point where they will support themselves and continue even if he and his team are removed from the field. The decision to imprison him , will certainly likely be hit. ” at least a short-term spike in street protests, accompanied by a corresponding increase in arrests and aggressive police brutality, “noted McDowell.

Political stalemate

Experts warn Putin of concern that the protests so far also reflect general public dissatisfaction with the Russian ruling class, widespread corruption and kleptocracy, and a decline in living standards.

McDowell said a “major cause for concern for the Kremlin should be that the protests sparked by Navalny’s arrest are more the result of longer-term social and economic stagnation … the protesters are driven less by Navalny’s political program than by them driven are a general feeling of being fed up with the status quo. “

Although there is allegedly a lack of political alternatives to Putin, whom McDowell viewed as not in immediate danger of falling, “his political regime is based less on active support than on tolerance and acceptance, and it appears that the Russian population is rapidly approaching its limits.”

Protesters hold a banner reading “FREE NAVALNY” as around 2,500 supporters of Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny protest to demand his release from Moscow prison on January 23, 2021 in Berlin.

Omer Messinger | Getty Images News | Getty Images

This sentiment was confirmed by Christopher Granville, executive director of EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, but warned of a possible “stalemate” between the Kremlin and the opposition.

“The main cause of the current political ferment in Russia is Vladimir Putin’s long reign, which is entering its final phase. Far from eliminating uncertainties (even at the expense of more acute short-term turbulence), this final is now more likely to drag on.” social tension and polarization, “he said in a note on Tuesday.

Granville said its discouraging outlook for Russia, which also negatively impacted the country’s economic growth prospects and valuations of the country’s assets, “stems from a key feature of Alexey Navalny’s challenge to Putin’s ruling establishment: stalemate.”

“The support base of either side in Russian society is too solid to allow for quick or easy victories. Removing Navalny from the board of directors, be it by murder or, as before, by imprisonment, is not a ‘solution’: far from a cult of personality being the movement he’s galvanized marks a generation change. The Putin base, still a plurality, is now cemented by rational fears of instability, “he said.

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Educational Going through Jail in Iran Escapes to U.Ok.

Mr Ahmady said he was held in solitary confinement in Evin Prison north of Tehran for three months after his arrest in 2019 and blindfolded on repeated interrogations. The detention was so excruciating that he longed to be interrogated, as it was the only form of human contact he received.

“You will only be mentally retarded and insensitive to your surroundings,” Ahmady told the British broadcaster Channel 4.

Mr. Ahmady, who is of Kurdish descent, was born in northwestern Iran and obtained British citizenship in the 1990s. He has published several reports and books on genital cuts and child marriage in Iran. In a report published in 2015, he wrote that genital cutting was “embedded in the social fabric of Iranian culture” in at least four provinces.

“I know for a fact that my sentence is a tool for the Iranian security services and the Ministry of Justice to intimidate and pressure the few remaining people who work on social issues,” Ahmady said in the statement released on Wednesday its website was published.

According to local reports in December, Tehran prosecutors accused him of collaborating with the United States and others, which he denied.

More than half a dozen foreigners and dual nationals are held in Iranian prisons, including Ms. Zaghari-Ratcliffe; Fariba Adelkhah, a Franco-Iranian academic; Siamak Namazi, a businessman, and his father, Baquer Namazi, a former Unicef ​​official, both Iranian-American; Dr. Ahmad Reza Jalali, a Swedish-Iranian doctor and researcher; Nahid Taghavi, a German-Iranian architect; and Morad Tahbaz, an Iranian-American environmentalist.

Kylie Moore-Gilbert, a British-Australian scholar arrested in 2018 for spying for Israel, was released in December in a prisoner swap with three Iranian men.

Farnaz Fassihi contributed to the coverage.

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S&P 500 ekes out small achieve for its third constructive day, Alphabet pops

The S&P 500 rose slightly on Wednesday, rising for the third straight year as investors digested a wave of corporate earnings.

The broad equity benchmark rose 0.1% to 3,830.17, supported by energy and communications services. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 36.12 points, or 0.1%, to 30,723.60. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell less than 0.1% to 13,610.54 as Amazon stocks fell less than 0.1%.

Google’s parent alphabet stocks rose 7.3% after the tech giant posted 23% revenue growth and beat earnings estimates on the back of a rebounding advertising business from Google.

Amazon reported profits that nearly doubled Wall Street’s estimates, while it had its largest revenue ever at $ 125.56 billion, breaking the symbolic $ 100 billion mark for the first time. The e-commerce director also announced that Jeff Bezos is stepping down as CEO. Amazon’s stock fell 2%.

Amgen fell 1.4% after the biotech company released a weaker-than-expected full-year outlook, noting that the pandemic would continue to hurt sales. Amgen was the biggest loser in the blue chip Dow.

Investors welcomed a rebound in US employment last month. A report by contract processing company ADP on Wednesday showed that private companies created 174,000 jobs in January, above the Dow Jones estimate of 50,000.

“Beneath the surface, an economy is regaining momentum,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E-Trade Financial. “Coupled with outstanding earnings reports from big tech names this week, plus a revived vaccine surge and COVID cases in the US, the overall picture is positive.”

Wall Street saw one strong rally in a row as the Reddit-fueled retail frenzy subsided and restored investor confidence in the broader market. The 30-share Dow is up 2.5% this week after posting its best day since November on Tuesday. The S&P 500 is up more than 3% this week while the Nasdaq is up more than 4%.

“Brief squeeze fears are subsiding and the contagion has been contained for now,” said Maneesh Deshpande, head of equity derivatives strategy at Barclays, in a note. “Despite the relatively strong breakout of these names, the affected subset of affected short squeeze stocks is still a negligible part of the US equity market overall.”

After a meteoric, if seemingly synthetic, surge in GameStop over the past week from a brief press, stocks have seen more than 70% crater this week. Other Reddit trades have also returned to Earth due to trading restrictions imposed by major brokers. GameStop hovered between gains and losses in volatile trading on Wednesday, ending the session 2.7%.

Investors are also overseeing negotiations in Washington on another stimulus package. President Joe Biden met with 10 Republican senators on Monday to discuss an alternative, smaller proposal for aid to his $ 1.9 trillion package.

The winning season continues on Wednesday. The chip manufacturers Qualcomm, eBay, PayPal and Yum China report after the closing bell.

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Myanmar Navy Costs Aung San Suu Kyi With Obscure Infraction

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the civilian leader of Myanmar who was deposed by the military in a coup d’état, was charged on Wednesday with an obscure violation: he illegally imported at least 10 walkie-talkies, according to an official from her National League for Democracy Party. The offense can be punished with up to three years in prison.

It was a bizarre epilogue to 48 Hours in which the army put the country’s most popular leader back under house arrest and erased hopes that the Southeast Asian nation might one day serve as a beacon of democracy in a world of increasing authoritarianism.

The surprising use of walkie-talkies to justify imprisoning a Nobel Peace Prize laureate fueled the military’s penchant for using a fine-grained strategy to neutralize its greatest political rival. The country’s ousted president is also jailed for alleged violations of coronavirus restrictions.

The court order to detain Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, issued by officials from the party that ruled Myanmar until Monday’s coup, was dated the day of the coup and authorized her detention for 15 days. The document states that soldiers ransacking their mansion in Naypyidaw, the capital, uncovered various communication devices that had been brought into the country without proper paperwork.

The coup replaced an elected government that was viewed by voters as the final defense against a military that had ruled the country for nearly five decades. During its five-year tenure, the National League for Democracy received two sweeping mandates, most recently in the general election last November.

As the coup progressed before dawn, the military resorted to the dictatorship’s well-known game book: shutdown of the Internet service, suspension of flights and imprisonment of its critics. Along with Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, her most loyal ministers, Buddhist monks, writers, activists and filmmakers were also rounded up.

Yet few soldiers patrolled the streets in the stunned silence that followed the takeover of the military. Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi was back at her mansion in Naypyidaw on Monday evening instead of languishing in one of the country’s notorious prison cells. There were no further mass arrests and the internet came back online.

Relative peace – this seemed to be a largely bloodless coup so far – prompted some people in Myanmar to cautiously raise their voices against the reintroduction of military rule. While some people removed the National League for Democracy flags from outside their homes, others took part in small-scale campaigns against civil disobedience, beating pots and pans, or honking their car horns to protest the coup.

Dozens of workers on a cellular network quit to object to their employer’s military connections. The doctors at a hospital posed together with three fingers each, which were raised in a defiant greeting from the films “Hunger Games”. The gesture has become a symbol of the pro-democracy demonstrations in neighboring Thailand, where coup rumors have surfaced.

The charges against Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, who had been under house arrest for a total of 15 years before the generals released her in 2010, echoed previous allegations of esoteric legal crimes. In one case, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s prison was extended because an American swam to her lakeside villa unannounced and she violated the terms of her detention.

But when such crimes seem absurd, they have real consequences. The military had made a habit of getting rid of political rivals and critics by charging them with arcane crimes.

Along with Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, President U Win Myint, one of her political acolytes, who was also arrested on Monday, was issued a warrant for violating emergency coronavirus regulations. According to U Kyi Toe, the National League for Democracy official, he was accused of greeting a car full of supporters during the campaign season last year.

If Mr. Win Myint is found guilty, he faces three years in prison. Keeping a criminal record could prevent him from returning to the presidency.

On Tuesday, the United Nations Security Council, which had convened a private emergency meeting in Myanmar, declined to issue a statement condemning the coup. China and Russia rejected such a step.

In Washington, the State Department said the takeover of the military was indeed a coup, a label that will affect US foreign aid to the country.

Myanmar’s military, known as the Tatmadaw, staged its first coup in 1962, a bloody exercise that paved the way for nearly five decades of direct iron-fisted rule. Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi and the leaders of her National League for Democracy were imprisoned during their political heyday.

The generals ordered the massacres of pro-democracy protesters and dispatched soldiers to remove ethnic minorities from their country. Even when the junta began giving space to a civil administration to operate, it made sure that the army would still control much of the economic and political sphere.

The confirmation of the charges against Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991 for her peaceful resistance to the army, ended in a whirlwind of rumors on Wednesday. In the early afternoon, lawmakers of the National League for Democracy exchanged misinformation even when they were in military custody themselves.

One rumor said she would be charged with high treason, a crime that can be punished with death. Another repetition said she was accused of electoral fraud. Nobody suspected that their alleged sin would involve walkie-talkies.

In a statement released Tuesday by the army chief’s office, Maj. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, the Tatmadaw said he was acting in the best interests of the citizens of Myanmar.

“For successive periods, the Myanmar Tatmadaw has kept the ‘people are the parents’ motto’ in relation to the people,” the statement said before insisting that the mass fraud in last November elections forced them to take the stage had a coup.

The National League for Democracy, which oversaw the nation’s electoral commission, denied the Tatmadaw’s allegations that voter manipulation had led to the poor demeanor of the military’s proxy party.

On Wednesday, the National League for Democracy lawmakers, who had been confined to their homes by soldiers, issued a statement saying they continue to support Mr. Win Myint as president. They rejected proposals that they had been released from their legislative obligations. The National Assembly was due to meet on the day of the coup for the first time since the November elections.

“Stop intervention,” lawmakers warned the Tatmadaw. There seemed to be a warning two days late.

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Siemens earnings Q1 2021

wallix | iStock Editorial | Getty Images

Siemens raised its full-year guidance on Wednesday after a strong first fiscal quarter in which orders, sales, and net income exceeded market expectations.

The German conglomerate recorded an increase in adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) by 39%, while the net profit for the period from October to December from 1.1 billion euros in the same period to 1.5 billion euros (1, $ 81 billion) rose the previous year.

Orders rose 15%, with the company leading faster-than-expected recoveries in China and Germany after the Covid-19 downturn. For the entire fiscal year 2021, Siemens now expects a net profit of between 5 and 5.5 billion euros.

“What we are seeing in Asia and especially in China is the massive demand, especially for industries or end markets that benefit greatly from people like the games industry and the like staying at home,” Siemens CEO Joe Kaeser told Annette Weisbach on Wednesday CNBC.

Kaeser also noted that China’s global export model also helped stimulate demand for lockdown-friendly industries.

“You think of smartphone games and the like, and that’s where the demand was the greatest, and these are very modern industries. So these are very automated lines and they need a lot of manufacturing software to automate them. That’s why we got in that area benefits a lot. “

However, he suggested that Germany and the rest of Europe would be more of a “catch-up” game than a long-term growth opportunity. Kaeser predicted that the US will be the biggest opportunity for the second half of the calendar year and through 2022.

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Iran Agrees to Free South Korean Ship’s Crew

SEOUL, South Korea – Iran has agreed to rescue the 19-strong crew from a confiscated ship flying the South Korean flag, both countries announced on Tuesday. This appeared to be the first significant gesture by the Iranians, which de-escalated the problem since the ship was seized a month ago.

The Iranian move may also have been intended to send an indirect signal to the Biden administration, suggesting that it should avoid further deterioration in relations with Iran after it deteriorated sharply under former President Donald J. Trump to have.

In return for releasing the occupation, the South Korean government said it had pledged swift action to address Iran’s complaints about its inability to access $ 7 billion in Iranian funds due to US sanctions reimposed by Mr Trump were frozen to fix.

It was not immediately apparent from the announcement when the crew members would be released. Iran said the ship and its captain would remain in custody pending an investigation into the reasons for the ship’s seizure, cited by Iranians as violating the Maritime Pollution Act.

The ship, the Hankuk Chemi, loaded with 7,200 tons of chemicals, was taken into custody by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on January 4 while on patrol in the Persian Gulf. South Korea strongly protested the seizure and the shipowner called Iran’s allegations absurd.

It soon became clear that Iran had at least partially taken into custody of the ship in an attempt to pressure South Korea, a strong American ally, over the sanctions ordered by Mr Trump after breaking on the nuclear deal between Iran and the major world powers 2015 had waived. These sanctions included blocking Iran’s access to Iranian oil revenues in the billions that were deposited with foreign banks.

Iran began disregarding its nuclear deal obligations in response to Mr Trump’s actions and threatened further steps that may include blocking international nuclear inspectors from visiting nuclear sites.

While President Biden has said he wants to rejoin the nuclear deal if Iran resumes compliance, Iran has said the United States should drop sanctions first. Neither side has publicly shown an immediate readiness to find a diplomatic solution.

Iran’s approval of the liberation of the South Korean ship’s crew, which Saeed Khatibzadeh, a State Department spokesman, described as a humanitarian gesture, however, appeared to offer a degree of flexibility on sanction-related issues.

“This could be a signal to show a willingness to resume discussions or at least ease tension and perhaps open the door to South Korea to release seized Iranian assets,” said Farhad Alavi, partner at Akrivis Law Group. a Washington-based company specializing in sanctions law.

“Likewise, I wouldn’t be surprised if President Biden were to lift or suspend less sensitive or perhaps more political sanctions from the Trump era in the coming weeks or months – something more symbolic than essential,” said Alavi.

There was no immediate comment from the Biden administration on the news about the South Korean crew members.

The South Korean Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the decision to free the crew members was taken during a telephone conversation on Tuesday between Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi and his South Korean counterpart Choi Jong-kun.

The crew consists of four South Koreans, and the other members are Burmese, Vietnamese and Indonesians, the statement said.

Mr. Choi welcomed the Iranian decision and called on the Iranian government to release the captain and ship as well.

During his telephone conversation with Mr. Araghchi, Mr. Choi promised “swift” action to deal with Iran’s complaints about the $ 7 billion confiscated.

Mr. Choi also told Mr. Araghchi that South Korea would consult American officials in Washington on the matter, the department said.

Choe Sang-hun reported from Seoul and Farnaz Fassihi from New York. Rick Gladstone reported from Eastham, Mass.

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Dow rallies 600 factors because the GameStop buying and selling mania continues to reverse course

US stocks rose Tuesday, building on a strong rally in the previous session as concerns about a speculative retail frenzy continued to subside.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 610 points while the S&P 500 rose 1.7% after posting its best day since November on Monday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4% and has been gaining nearly 4% for weeks.

Successive advancement on Wall Street coincided with a sharp reversal of GameStop, the video game inventory that intrigued Wall Street with its massive short squeeze coordinated by a group of retail investors on social media. GameStop, which rose 400% last week, was down 30% on Monday and fell another 50% on Tuesday. The stock lost more than half of its value in two days.

“Inevitably, as with any tech-powered short squeeze, the Reddit missile ship ran out of fuel and is now crashing back to earth,” said Max Gokhman, director of asset allocation at Pacific Life Fund Advisors Work and Fundamentals Matters, Others Market participants will be comfortable returning to the market and that likely drove this week’s comeback rally. “

Other highly speculative investments popular with the Reddit crowd also fell. AMC Entertainment fell more than 35%. Silver futures contracts, which saw their biggest one-day jump in eleven years on Monday, fell more than 5% on Tuesday.

Investors took this as a sign that retailers’ speculative mania is subsiding, which is healthy for the overall market and investor confidence. The stock market suffered its worst week since October last week as many feared that the fierce trading activity in these greatly shortened names could be contagious and spill over to other areas of the markets.

However, some believe that this Reddit-fueled commercial frenzy has shown that the collective power of retail investors deserves special attention.

“Retail investors are a force to be reckoned with,” said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. “This particular example will fade and retail investor influence will wane over time. However, I think it is prudent to expect investors to draw attention to certain stocks from time to time.”

In the meantime, investors will be following the stimulus talks in Washington after Republicans in Congress made a counter-offer against President Joe Biden’s $ 1.9 trillion stimulus plan on Sunday.

Biden met with these lawmakers on Monday when Congress Democrats passed a reconciliation law without bipartisan support. Jen Psaki, White House press secretary, described the meeting as “substantive and productive”.

Investors also waited for big earnings reports on Tuesday. Tech giants Amazon and Alphabet will publish quarterly figures after the market closes.

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How a Lethal Energy Recreation Undid Myanmar’s Democratic Hopes

This cycle repeated itself over the next few years as several of Myanmar’s slow-burning riots burned.

“It was actually much tougher than the military,” Connelly said, referring to a particularly bloody campaign in Rakhine, a region that has long been in trouble. “The military has declared a ceasefire and Aung San Suu Kyi should play her part in organizing elections in Rakhine State. She refused to do that, and so the truce was lost. “

These episodes deepened the feeling of a zero-sum and even deadly power struggle and “created conditions for a conservative insurrection” among military officers, Paliwal said, citing his time on the ground in Rakhine during some of the heaviest fighting.

A bloodless, but no less violent battle took place in the capital. In January 2020, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, apparently hoping to replace the lost international allies with military defense, received Xi Jinping, China’s leader, on a state visit.

But Myanmar military leaders widely see China as an enemy propping up their country’s uprisings. The junta is believed to have given up part of power as a move to break China’s hold in the country in hopes that Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi would bring Western support. Instead, she marched Mr. Xi through the capital.

Two months later, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi tried to push through constitutional amendments that would have gradually reduced the military’s share in parliament from 25 to 5 percent. Though it failed, it was a political shot over the bow of an institution with the power to fire actual shots in return.

Her party won the November elections in a blowout and further reduced the seat share of the military representative party. General Min Aung Hlaing was due to retire later that year. To the generals it may have looked like a window was closing.

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Nio deliveries in January quadruple from a 12 months in the past signaling a robust begin to 2021

Bin Li, CEO of Chinese electric vehicle startup NIO Inc., celebrates after the doorbell as NIO stock goes to trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during the company’s initial public offering (IPO), New York, September 12, 2018.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

BEIJING – Chinese electric car start-up Nio has had a solid start to the year, even if there is still a long way to go to catch up with market leader Tesla.

The company announced on Monday it had delivered 7,225 vehicles in January, more than four times the 1,598 vehicles delivered in the same month last year.

Last month’s numbers also mark Nio’s sixth consecutive month of record shipments, bringing the startup’s cumulative shipments to 82,866.

It took Nio about six years to reach this point, while Tesla delivered 180,570 cars in the last three months of 2020 alone.

Nio’s shares, listed on the New York Stock Exchange, are up 17% year-to-date, just ahead of Tesla’s 19% gain. Both stocks outperform the S&P 500 by around half a percent.

Xpeng, another US-listed Chinese electric car company, is up 15% year-to-date.

Xpeng announced on Monday that it had shipped 6,015 electric cars in January, a third record month in a row. The company’s P7 sedan made up more than half of last month’s deliveries, a total of 18,772 since mass launch began in late June.

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World Covid-19 Reside Updates: Information on Vaccine, Variants, Stimulus and Circumstances

Here’s what you need to know:

Credit…Rory Doyle for The New York Times

Vaccinations in the United States are slowly picking up speed as the Biden administration pushes to accelerate inoculations and blunt the spread of more contagious virus variants.

The United States has administered about 30 million doses, and, as of Sunday, is averaging more than 1.3 million doses administered over the past seven days, compared with an average of less than one million per day two weeks earlier, according to a New York Times vaccine tracker.

President Biden, under pressure to speed up coronavirus vaccinations, has recently suggested the nation could soon reach an average of 1.5 million shots a day.

But just as there are signs of progress, another problem has taken root: the spread of the variants, which scientists warn must be contained before they become dominant. Several hundred cases of the more contagious variant discovered in Britain, which experts have said could be the dominant form in the United States by March, have already been confirmed.

The country has also recorded its first two cases of the variant spreading rapidly in South Africa, which has proved to reduce the effectiveness of vaccines.

“If we didn’t have these variants looming,” we would be in a good place, said Dr. Peter Hotez, a vaccine scientist and pediatrician at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. If those variants take over by spring, “as many of us are predicting,” he said, “it changes everything. Now, we really have to vaccinate the American population by late spring, early summer.”

Two key challenges in the weeks ahead are “increasing the supply of vaccines” and “speeding up the time it takes to administer them,” Andy Slavitt, a White House adviser, said in a news briefing on Friday. Many experts have pushed for bringing other vaccine options out and releasing the first doses more widely.

The most effective state programs, said Dr. Ashish Jha, the dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, are “very simple, age-based, not a lot of complex rules. They focus on getting the vaccines out.”

Here is a snapshot of how five of the best-performing states are doing:

  • West Virginia has given at least one dose to 10.7 percent of its population, second only to Alaska, and leads the nation in the percentage of its population that has received two doses (3.7 percent). Early on, the state got a head start because it opted out of a federal program to vaccinate people in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities. While other states chose the federal plan, which teamed with Walgreens and CVS, officials decided the idea made little sense in West Virginia, where many communities are miles from the nearest chain store, and about half of pharmacies are independently owned. Instead the state created a network of pharmacies, pairing them with about 200 long-term care facilities.

  • According to health officials in Alaska, there are several reasons behind the state’s relatively high vaccination rate, The Anchorage Daily News has reported. Those factors include: the state’s having received a high number of doses through the Indian Health Service; the decision to receive doses monthly, versus weekly, as most states do; and declining virus caseloads, which has allowed health care workers to focus on inoculations. The state has vaccinated 13 percent of its population, according to a Times database.

  • North Dakota has used 91 percent of the vaccines distributed to the state, according to the Times vaccine tracker. It is the only state above 90 percent; more populous states like California (58 percent) and New York (64 percent) have used less, proportionally. North Dakota was among the first states to lower the minimum age eligible for vaccination, from 75 to 65.

  • In a recent interview with the American Medical Association, health officials in New Mexico attributed part of the state’s success to its “data-oriented and science-oriented” governor, Michelle Lujan Grisham, and to an app that allowed easy registration and close coordination among hospitals and providers. The state has given 9.8 percent of residents at least one shot, and has used 83 percent of its doses.

  • Connecticut got mass vaccination sites up and running early, and uses an inventory system that allocates unused doses to places that need them. But older residents have complained about long waits.

United States › United StatesOn Jan. 31 14-day change
New cases 111,478 –32%
New deaths 1,875 –5%
World › WorldOn Jan. 31 14-day change
New cases 389,735 –21%
New deaths 8,093 +2%

U.S. vaccinations ›

Where states are reporting vaccines given

A shopping mall in Cergy-Pontoise, near Paris, on Sunday. France is still under a 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. curfew, and places like cafes, museums and theaters are closed.Credit…Andrea Mantovani for The New York Times

PARIS — Public frustration with lockdowns is palpable across Europe, with pensioners protesting this weekend in Vienna, restaurateurs taking to the streets in Budapest and demonstrators clashing with the police in Belgium, prompting dozens of arrests. The Dutch authorities fined more than 10,000 people last week for violating the national curfew.

While none of the protests resulted in the kind of violence seen in the Netherlands in recent weeks, they reflect a growing impatience as political leaders extend restrictions to guard against a resurgence of the virus fueled by new variants.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron has resisted a full lockdown, making a calculated gamble that his government can tighten the rules just enough to avoid a new wave of infections.

Prime Minister Jean Castex appeared in front of television cameras for an unexpected statement on Friday night, announcing a handful of new curbs, including strict border closures.

“Even if the path is very narrow, we must take it,” Mr. Macron was reported to have said at a cabinet meeting last week, according to the Journal du Dimanche, pushing back against the advice of several senior aides. According to the newspaper, he added: “When you are French, you have all you need to get by, as long as you dare to try.”

Polls in France have shown weariness with restrictions, and grumbling about the rules is growing in some quarters.

France is still under a 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. curfew, and places like cafes, museums and theaters are closed. Schools and shops are open.

After a widely publicized breach of the rules at a restaurant in the southern city of Nice last week and a call to “civil disobedience” by some restaurant owners, the French economy minister, Bruno Le Maire, warned on Monday that any establishments that flouted the rules would be cut off from coronavirus aid.

In the French Alps, protesters blocked roads on Monday to demand that ski lifts reopen.

Critics say that Mr. Macron’s approach may simply be delaying the inevitable and that he could be forced to change course if cases started to surge.

“It’s a risk, I’m hoping it was a calculated risk,” Karine Lacombe, an infectious-disease specialist, told the French news channel LCI on Sunday.

Mr. Macron’s plan is rooted partly in the relative stability of the pandemic in France. The number of new daily cases has inched up only slowly and while hospitalizations remain high, there has been no sudden surge. More contagious variants of the virus have been registered in the country, but the authorities say they believe that their spread, so far, is under control.

“Everything suggests that a new wave could occur because of the variant,” Olivier Véran, the French health minister, told the Journal du Dimanche. “But perhaps we can avoid it thanks to the measures that we decided early and that the French people are respecting.”

Aurelien Breeden reported from Paris, and Marc Santora from London.

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N.Y.C. Snowstorm Delays Vaccinations

On Monday, Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York postponed coronavirus vaccinations to prevent older residents from traveling to appointments in blizzard-like conditions.

The storm is disrupting our vaccination effort, and we need to keep people safe. We don’t want folks, especially seniors, going out in unsafe conditions to get vaccinated. We know we can reschedule appointments very quickly because, of course, we have supply. We’re going to use the supply we have. Our problem is lack of supply. So we can take the supply we have and distribute it very quickly in the days to come, and make sure everyone gets the appointments. But it’s not safe out there today. So vaccinations are canceled today. They’re also going to be canceled tomorrow. Based on what we are seeing right now, we believe that tomorrow, getting around the city will be difficult, it’ll be icy, it’ll be treacherous. We do not want seniors, especially, out in those conditions. So we’re going to have vaccinations off for today and tomorrow, come back strong on Wednesday. We’ll be able to catch up quickly because, again, we have a vast amount of capacity. We don’t have enough vaccine. So we’ll simply use the days later in the week. Crank up those schedules, get people rescheduled into those days.

Video player loadingOn Monday, Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York postponed coronavirus vaccinations to prevent older residents from traveling to appointments in blizzard-like conditions.CreditCredit…James Estrin/The New York Times

Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York said on Monday that coronavirus vaccinations scheduled for Tuesday would be postponed because of the winter storm, the second day in a row that they have been delayed.

Heavy snow was also complicating vaccination efforts in Washington, Philadelphia, New Jersey and elsewhere.

At a news conference on Monday, Mr. de Blasio of New York City said he did not want older residents traveling to vaccine appointments amid blizzard-like conditions with gusty winds.

“Based on what we are seeing right now, we believe tomorrow, getting around the city will be difficult,” Mr. de Blasio said. “It will be icy, it will be treacherous.”

He said he believed the city could quickly make up the appointments later in the week.

“We have a vast amount of capacity; we don’t have enough vaccine,” he said. “We’ll simply use the days later in the week, crank up those schedules, get people rescheduled into those days.”

The storm will temporarily derail a vaccine rollout that has been plagued by inadequate supply, buggy sign-up systems and confusion over the New York State’s strict eligibility guidelines. The vaccine is available to residents 65 and older as well as a wide range of workers designated “essential.”

About 800,000 doses have been administered so far in the city, Mr. de Blasio said.

Vaccine appointments originally scheduled for Monday at several sites in the region — the Javits Center in Manhattan, the Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens, a drive-through site at Jones Beach in Long Island, SUNY Stony Brook and the Westchester County Center — would be rescheduled for this week, according to a statement from Melissa DeRosa, a top aide to Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo. “We ask all New Yorkers to monitor the weather and stay off the roads tomorrow so our crews and first responders can safely do their jobs,” she said.

Mr. Cuomo said at a news conference on Monday that New York’s seven-day average positive test rate was 4.8 percent, the 24th straight day it had declined.

Mr. Cuomo added that the state had administered about 1.96 million doses of the vaccine.

In the Philadelphia area, city-run testing and vaccine sites were closed on Monday. Connecticut, New Jersey, Rhode Island and parts of the Washington, D.C., area were following suit. Some areas away from the center of the storm were expected to remain open for vaccinations, including parts of Massachusetts and upstate New York.

A medical technician at a coronavirus testing site in Austin, Texas, last month.Credit…Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

The past few weeks in the United States have been the deadliest of the coronavirus pandemic, and residents in a majority of counties remain at an extremely high risk of contracting the virus. At the same time, transmission seems to be slowing throughout the country, with the number of new average cases 40 percent lower on Jan. 29 than at the U.S. peak three weeks earlier.

Other indicators reinforce the current downward trend in cases. Hospitalizations are down significantly from record highs in early January. The number of tests per day has also decreased, which can obscure the virus’s true toll, but the positivity rate of those tests has also gone down, indicating that the slowed spread is real.

Still, the average reported daily death rate over the past seven days remains above 3,000, compared with less than 1,000 per day in September and October.

Experts say the decrease could mark a turning point in the outbreak after months of ever-higher caseloads. But new, more contagious variants threaten to upend progress and could even send case rates to a new high if they take hold, especially if the national vaccine rollout faces hurdles.

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Biden to Discuss Pandemic Relief Package With Republicans

President Biden will meet with 10 Republican senators on Monday who have proposed a much smaller Covid-19 relief package. Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, told reporters that the Mr. Biden’s biggest concern is releasing a package that is too small.

The president has been clear since long before he came into office that he’s open to engaging with both Democrats and Republicans in Congress about their ideas. And this is an example of doing exactly that. So as we said in our statement last night, it’s an exchange of ideas, an opportunity to do that. This group obviously sent a letter with some outline, some top lines of their concerns and their priorities, and he’s happy to have a conversation with them. What this meeting is not, is a forum for the president to make or accept an offer. His view — it remains — what was stated in the statement last night, but also what he said on Friday, which is that the risk is not that it is too big, this package, the risk is that it is too small. And that remains his view, and it’s one he’ll certainly express today. But it’s important to him that he hears this group out on their concerns, on their ideas. He’s always open to making this package stronger. And he also, as was noted in our statement last night, remains in close touch with Speaker Pelosi with Leader Schumer, and he will continue that engagement throughout the day, and in the days ahead.

Video player loadingPresident Biden will meet with 10 Republican senators on Monday who have proposed a much smaller Covid-19 relief package. Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, told reporters that the Mr. Biden’s biggest concern is releasing a package that is too small.CreditCredit…Doug Mills/The New York Times

White House officials offered a pointed, if polite, warning to 10 Senate Republicans planning to pitch a scaled-back coronavirus relief package to President Biden at the White House on Monday evening: Think bigger.

Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, played down expectations of the meeting, a critical first test of Mr. Biden’s dueling commitments to bipartisanship and speeding pandemic aid, saying no deal would be done without further negotiations — a statement aimed at reassuring Democrats leery of a fast, weak deal.

“What this meeting is not is a forum for the president to make or accept an offer,” Ms. Psaki told reporters on Monday afternoon, repeating the president’s determination to push through a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill.

“The risk is not that it is too big, this package,” Ms. Psaki added. “The risk is that it is too small. That remains his view.”

A coalition of center-right Republican senators, led by Susan Collins of Maine, on Monday outlined a more limited $618 billion stimulus plan, which they are billing as a way for Mr. Biden to pass a pandemic aid bill with bipartisan support and make good on his inauguration pledge to unite the country.

With 10 Republicans on board, joining the Senate’s 50 Democrats, a bipartisan bill could overcome the chamber’s 60-vote filibuster rule. But Democrats have shown little enthusiasm for a measure that amounts to less than one third of what the president says is needed.

Still, after receiving a letter from the senators on Sunday requesting a meeting, Mr. Biden called Ms. Collins and invited her and the other signers to the White House. He also spoke with Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader.

The Republican proposal is likely to be met with resistance from congressional Democrats, who are preparing this week to begin laying the groundwork for passing Mr. Biden’s plan through a process known as budget reconciliation, which would allow it to bypass a filibuster and pass solely with Democratic votes.

The proposal would include $160 billion for vaccine distribution and development, coronavirus testing and the production of personal protective equipment; $20 billion toward helping schools reopen; more relief for small businesses; and additional aid to individuals. The package would also extend enhanced unemployment benefits of $300 a week — currently slated to lapse in March — until June 30.

“We recognize your calls for unity and want to work in good faith with your administration,” wrote the Republican group, which includes Senators Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Mitt Romney of Utah.

The measure omits a federal minimum wage increase that Mr. Biden included in his plan. It would also whittle down his proposal to send $1,400 checks to many Americans, and limit it to lower-income earners.

The proposal calls for checks of up to $1,000 for individuals making $50,000 a year or less and families with a combined income of up to $100,000, with individuals earning less than $40,000 — and families earning less than $80,000 — receiving the full amount.

Previous rounds of direct payments were targeted to Americans earning less than $99,000 annually, with those earning less than $75,000 receiving the full amount.

Congress approved more than $4 trillion through a series of bills last year to address the coronavirus crisis and its economic fallout. Most recently, in December, lawmakers passed a $900 billion stimulus plan that included $600 direct checks to many Americans.

Mr. Biden received an important boost on Monday ahead of his meeting with the senators: Gov. Jim Justice of West Virginia, a close ally of former President Trump, said he supported a bigger relief package than the one that the center-right Republicans are proposing.

“If we actually throw away some money right now, so what?” said Mr. Justice, a former Democrat who switched parties to support Mr. Trump in 2017, told CNN.

A shuttered business in Los Angeles. It may take years to return to the pre-pandemic levels of employment.Credit…Kendrick Brinson for The New York Times

The American economy will return to its pre-pandemic size by the middle of this year, even if Congress does not approve any more federal aid for the recovery, but it will be years before everyone thrown off the job by the pandemic is able to return to work, the Congressional Budget Office projected on Monday.

The new projections from the office, which is nonpartisan and issues regular budgetary and economic forecasts, are an improvement from the office’s forecasts last summer. Officials told reporters on Monday that the brightening outlook was a result of large sectors of the economy adapting better and more rapidly to the pandemic than originally expected.

They also reflect increased growth from a $900 billion economic aid package that Congress passed in December, which included $600 direct checks to individuals and more generous unemployment benefits.

The budget office now expects the unemployment rate to fall to 5.3 percent at the end of the year, down from an 8.4 percent projection last July. The economy is expected to grow 3.7 percent for the year, after recording a much smaller contraction in 2020 than the budget office initially expected.

The rosier projections are likely to inject even more debate into the discussions over whether to pass President Biden’s $1.9 trillion economic rescue package. It could embolden Republicans who have pushed Mr. Biden to scale back the plan significantly, saying the economy does not need so much additional federal support and that another big package could “overheat” the economy.

But the report shows little risk of that happening. The economy is projected to remain below potential levels until 2025 on its current path. And big economic risks remain. The number of employed Americans will not return to its pre-pandemic levels until 2024, officials predicted, reflecting the prolonged difficulties of shaking off the virus and returning to full levels of economic activity.

The Federal Reserve chair, Jerome H. Powell, warned last week that the economy was “a long way from a full recovery” with millions still out of work and many small businesses facing pressure.

Budget officials said the rebound in growth and employment could be significantly accelerated if public health authorities were able to more rapidly deploy coronavirus vaccines across the population.

As it stands, the budget office sees little evidence of growth running hot enough in the years to come to spur a rapid increase in inflation. It forecast inflation levels below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent for years to come, even with the Fed holding interest rates near zero.

Other independent forecasts, including one from the Brookings Institution last week, have projected that another dose of economic aid — like the $1.9 trillion package Mr. Biden has proposed — would help the economy grow more rapidly, topping its pre-pandemic path by year’s end.

Dr. Ricardo Cigarroa hugging a patient at the Laredo Medical Center in Laredo, Texas.Credit…Verónica G. Cárdenas for The New York Times

During January, the pandemic’s deadliest month, Laredo, Texas, held the bleak distinction of having one of the most severe outbreaks of any city in the United States. The death toll in the overwhelmingly Latino city of 277,000 now stands at more than 630 — including at least 126 in January alone.

When the virus made its way to the borderlands almost a year ago, Dr. Ricardo Cigarroa could have just hunkered down. He could have focused on his profitable cardiology practice, which has 80 employees. He could have kept quiet.

Instead, Dr. Cigarroa has become a top crusader and the de facto authority on the pandemic along this stretch of the U.S.-Mexico border.

On regional television stations, he calmly explains, in both English and Spanish, how the virus is evolving. Known for making Covid-19 house calls around Laredo in his old Toyota Tacoma pickup, he is interviewed so often that Texas Monthly called him “The Dr. Fauci of South Texas,” comparing him to Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease expert — though Dr. Cigarroa holds no official government portfolio.

Lately, Dr. Cigarroa has been losing his patience.

Looking exhausted in a video posted on Facebook, he blasted political leaders for allowing the virus to rampage through this part of South Texas. Dr. Cigarroa singled out Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, for refusing to allow Laredo to impose stricter mitigation measures.

“To the governor: It’s OK to swallow your pride,” Dr. Cigarroa said, stunning some viewers with a warning that the virus could kill 1 in 250 Laredoans by midyear. “It’s OK to say that you’re not going to do it, and then do it to save lives.”

Pleading with the people of Laredo to consider civil disobedience in the form of staying home from work if politicians fail to act, he added, “The only thing that will save lives at this point will be staying home and shutting down the city.”

Students waiting to be admitted at a public school in Brooklyn in December. In New York City, about 12,000 more white children have returned to classrooms than Black students.Credit…Victor J. Blue for The New York Times

Even as more districts reopen their buildings and President Biden joins the chorus of those saying schools can safely resume in-person education, hundreds of thousands of Black parents say they are not ready to send their children back. That reflects both the disproportionately harsh consequences the coronavirus has visited on nonwhite Americans and the profound lack of trust that Black families have in school districts, a longstanding phenomenon exacerbated by the pandemic.

It also points to a major dilemma: School closures have hit the mental health and academic achievement of nonwhite children the hardest, but many of the families that education leaders have said need in-person education the most are most wary of returning.

That is shifting the reopening debate in real time. In Chicago, only about a third of Black families have indicated they are willing to return to classrooms, compared with 67 percent of white families, and the city’s teachers’ union, which is hurtling toward a strike, has made the disparity a core part of its argument against in-person classes.

In New York City, about 12,000 more white children have returned to classrooms than Black students, though Black children make up a larger share of the overall district. In Oakland, Calif., just about a third of Black parents said they would consider in-person learning, compared with more than half of white families. And Black families in Washington, Nashville, Dallas and other districts also indicated they would keep their children learning at home at higher rates than white families.

Education experts and Black parents say decades of racism, institutionalized segregation and mistreatment of Black children have left Black communities to doubt that school districts are being upfront about the risks.

“For generations, these public schools have failed us and prepared us for prison, and now it’s like they’re preparing us to pass away,” said Sarah Carpenter, the executive director of Memphis Lift, a parent advocacy group in Tennessee. “We know that our kids have lost a lot, but we’d rather our kids to be out of school than dead.”

In many cities and districts, Latino and Asian-American families are also less likely than white families to send their children back. Asian-Americans have opted out of in-person classes at the highest rates of any ethnic group in New York City. Latino families in Chicago were most likely to say they would keep their children at home when schools reopened.

Still, the pattern is most consistent and pronounced with Black families, which have been particularly affected by decades of underinvestment. By one estimate, a $23 billion gap, or $2,226 per pupil, separates funding for predominantly white districts and nonwhite districts, and Jessica Calarco, a sociologist at Indiana University Bloomington who has studied reopening, said the pandemic had amplified that inequity.

“If you know your school doesn’t have hot running water, how would you feel about sending your child to that school knowing they can’t fully wash their hands before they eat lunch?” she asked.

GLOBAL ROUNDUP

Workers loading South Africa’s first coronavirus vaccine doses at OR Tambo airport in Johannesburg on Monday.Credit…Elmond Jiyane for GCIS, via Reuters

A million doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine arrived in South Africa on Monday, paving the way for the country to begin vaccinating its population of nearly 60 million. Health care workers will be the first to be offered the shots, officials said.

The country has reported by far the most cases and deaths from the coronavirus on the African continent. It has participated in clinical trials of several vaccines.

The plane delivering the eagerly awaited doses from the Serum Institute of India, which produced them, was met at the airport by President Cyril Ramaphosa. The president has come under criticism over the country’s lagging start to widespread vaccination, with many countries in Asia and the West able to start immunizing their populations weeks before South Africa could secure a supply.

South Africa experienced a surge in new cases around the turn of the year, fueled by the more transmissible variant of the virus that was first detected in the country. But the surge has begun to ease in recent weeks. Information has not yet been released on the AstraZeneca vaccine’s effectiveness against the variant, which is now predominant in the country.

Over the course of the pandemic, South Africa has reported about 1.45 million cases, and has lately been averaging about 5,800 new cases a day, according to a New York Times database.

In other developments around the world:

  • Seeking a better understanding of the pandemic’s origins, a team of 15 World Health Organization experts is visiting some of the places first hit by the coronavirus in the Chinese city of Wuhan, including a live animal market, a hospital and a disease control center. The inquiry is expected to take months to complete. Scientists initially believed the outbreak began at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, but many experts now doubt that theory.

  • The European Union will get 75 million additional doses of vaccine in the next few months, the German pharmaceutical company BioNTech announced on Monday. The vaccine jointly developed by the company and Pfizer was the first to be authorized for use in the E.U., but supplies have been limited by production issues in the early going, and several countries, including Germany, are off to slower than expected starts in vaccinating their populations.

  • The police in China said they had broken up a criminal ring that manufactured and sold more than 3,000 fake coronavirus vaccine doses, the state-run Xinhua news agency reported on Monday. More than 80 people were arrested, the agency said. According to Xinhua, the police said that since September, the main suspect had been selling vials of “vaccine” that was really just saline solution.

Congressman Adriano Espaillat of New York at the Capitol this month.Credit…J. Scott Applewhite/Associated Press

The scattered reports from around the country can play like a cruel irony: Someone tests positive for the coronavirus even though they have already received one or both doses of a Covid-19 vaccine.

It’s happened to at least three members of Congress recently:

But it’s been reported in people in other walks of life too, including Rick Pitino, a Hall of Fame basketball coach, and a nurse in California.

Experts say cases like these are not surprising and do not indicate that there was something wrong with the vaccines or how they were administered. Here is why.

  • Vaccines don’t work instantly. It takes a few weeks for the body to build up immunity after receiving a dose. And the vaccines now in use in the U.S., from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, both require a second shot a few weeks after the first to reach full effectiveness.

  • Nor do they work retroactively. You can already be infected and not know it when you get the vaccine — even if you recently tested negative. That infection can continue to develop after you get the shot but before its protection fully takes hold, and then show up in a positive test result.

  • The vaccines prevent illness, but maybe not infection. Covid vaccines are being authorized based on how well they keep you from getting sick, needing hospitalization and dying. Scientists don’t know yet how effective the vaccines are at preventing the coronavirus from infecting you to begin with, or at keeping you from passing it on to others. (That’s why vaccinated people should keep wearing masks and maintaining social distance.)

  • Even the best vaccines aren’t perfect. The efficacy rates for Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are extremely high, but they are not 100 percent. With the virus still spreading out of control in the U.S., some of the millions of recently vaccinated people were bound to get infected in any case.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York has said that he believed he had no choice but to seize more control over pandemic policy from state and local public health officials.Credit…Pool photo by Mary Altaffer

The deputy commissioner for public health at the New York State Health Department resigned in late summer. Soon after, the director of its bureau of communicable disease control also stepped down. So did the medical director for epidemiology. Last month, the state epidemiologist said she, too, would be leaving.

The high-level departures came as morale plunged in the Health Department and senior health officials expressed alarm to one another over being sidelined and treated disrespectfully, according to five people with direct experience inside the department.

Their concern had an almost singular focus: Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo.

Even as the pandemic continues to rage and New York struggles to vaccinate a large and anxious population, Mr. Cuomo has all but declared war on his own public health bureaucracy. The departures have underscored the extent to which pandemic policy has been set by the governor, who with his aides designed a vaccination program hampered by early delays.

The troubled rollout came after Mr. Cuomo declined to use the longstanding vaccination plans that the State Department of Health had developed in recent years in coordination with local health departments. Mr. Cuomo instead adopted an approach that relied on large hospital systems to coordinate vaccinations.

In recent weeks, the governor has repeatedly made it clear that he believed he had no choice but to seize more control over pandemic policy from state and local public health officials, who he said had no understanding of how to conduct a real-world, large-scale operation like vaccinations. After early problems, in which relatively few doses were being administered, the pace of vaccinations has picked up and New York is now roughly 20th in the nation in percentage of residents who have received at least one vaccine dose.

“When I say ‘experts’ in air quotes, it sounds like I’m saying I don’t really trust the experts,” Mr. Cuomo said at a news conference on Friday, referring to scientific expertise at all levels of government during the pandemic. “Because I don’t. Because I don’t.”

His comments reflected a rift between the state’s top elected official and its career health experts of the sort that has occurred across different levels of government during the pandemic.

In Albany, tensions worsened in recent months as state health officials said they often found out about major changes in pandemic policy only after Mr. Cuomo announced them at news conferences — and then asked them to match their health guidance to the announcements.

That was what happened with the vaccine plan, when state health officials were blindsided by the news that the rollout would be coordinated locally by hospitals.

At least nine senior state health officials have left the department, resigned or retired in recent months. They include Dr. Elizabeth Dufort, the medical director in the division of epidemiology; and Dr. Jill Taylor, the head of the renowned Wadsworth laboratory — which has been central to the state’s efforts to detect virus variants — and the executive in charge of health data, according to state records.