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China-Russia cooperation might be Biden’s greatest problem

China-Russia cooperation could be Biden's biggest challenge

ST PETERSBURG, RUSSIA 7 JUNE 2019: China’s President Xi Jinping (L) and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin at a plenary meeting of the St. Petersburg 2019 International Economic Forum (SPIEF).

Sergei Bobylev | TASS | Getty Images

President Joe Biden faces a nightmare scenario of global consequence: intensified Sino-Russian strategic cooperation to undermine US influence and strengthen Biden’s efforts to rally democratic allies.

It is the most significant and least recognized test of Biden’s leadership to date: it could be the defining challenge of his presidency.

Over the past week, Russia and China have simultaneously escalated their separate military activities and threats to the sovereignty of Ukraine and Taiwan, respectively – countries whose living independence is an affront to Moscow and Beijing but at the center of the interests of the US and its allies in theirs Regions stands.

Even if the actions of Moscow and Beijing do not lead to a military invasion of either country, and most experts still consider this unlikely, the scale and intensity of the military measures require immediate attention. US and Allied officials dare not deny the certainty that Russia and China are exchanging information or the growing likelihood that they will increasingly coordinate actions and strategies.

“The [Russian] The build has reached the point where it could provide the basis for a limited military incursion, “Central Intelligence Agency director William J. Burns told the Senate Intelligence Committee this week. Allies must take it very seriously.”

Regarding China, the secret services’ annual US threat assessment states: “China is trying to exploit doubts about US commitment to the region, undermining Taiwan’s democracy and expanding Beijing’s influence.” A warning of “Russia’s growing strategic cooperation with China – to achieve its goals” was lost in media coverage of the report.

Viewed independently, the challenges in China and Russia would be a handful for any US president. Should China and Russia act more coherently and coherently and you should have a narrative that is more consistent than the plot of a Tom Clancy novel. It is a scenario for which the US and its allies lack a strategy or even a common understanding.

For anyone who has doubts about Sino-Russian ambitions, the Global Times is one of my favorite places to read Chinese tea leaves, often a mouthpiece for Beijing’s leadership. In an editorial late last month, under the headline “China-Russia Relations Deepen as the US and Its Allies Fight”, he wrote: “The most influential bilateral relationship in Eurasia is China-Russia’s broad strategic coordination partnership for a new one Era.”

In a barely veiled warning to Japan and South Korea, it says: “China and Russia understand the weight of their relationship … To be honest, no country in the region can stand alone against China or Russia, let alone fight against the powers that be at the same time. It would be disastrous for any country that tends to confront China and Russia by forming an alliance with the US. “

Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who was asked last October about the possibility of a formal military alliance with China, said: “In theory it is entirely possible.”

In any case, there is nothing theoretical about the military escalations in Ukraine and Taiwan.

Last week, Russia amassed the largest concentration of troops along the Ukrainian border since annexing Crimea in 2014. According to Ukrainian government officials, Russian President Vladimir Putin has brought more than 40,000 soldiers near Ukraine’s eastern border to conduct “combat training exercises” over a border period of two weeks.

At the same time, China has taken its military overflights into Taiwan’s air defense zone to unprecedented levels after flying more than 250 sorties near the island this year. The Chinese military sent 25 fighter jets to Taiwan last Monday, a record high since Taiwan announced figures last year.

The Biden government responded to Putin this week with the carrot of a summit and the rod of new sanctions. On Tuesday, Biden called Putin signaling that he would not try to escalate tensions with the leader, whom he had agreed to be a “killer” just a month ago.

On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stood next to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg as they condemned Russia’s military build-up. The Biden government’s strongest reprimand came Thursday when it announced new economic sanctions against 38 Russian entities accused of electoral disruption and cyberattacks, expelled ten diplomats, and introduced measures to keep U.S. financial institutions trading in newly issued Russian government bonds and bonds prohibited.

China’s raids on Taiwan came soon after the State Department issued guidelines relaxing the rules for US government officials working with Taiwan. Blinken said the government is concerned about China’s “increasingly aggressive actions” and is committed to ensuring that Taiwan “has the ability to defend itself.” The United States demonstrated its support for Taiwan on Wednesday by sending an unofficial delegation consisting of a former US Senator and two former US Assistant Secretary of State to Taiwan.

This unfolding great power drama couldn’t come at a worse time for the Biden government, whose officials won’t reach their 100-day term until April 30. However, this is likely the point for Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping as they try to gain an edge before Biden can move to a safer post by reviewing policy and filling senior leadership positions.

These real events also complicate the Biden administration’s carefully crafted plans to methodically order its actions, and reasonably argue that US renewal is a prerequisite for effective global governance.

Biden’s goal is to suppress Covid-19 through accelerated vaccine distribution, increase economic dynamism and competitiveness through $ 4 trillion in stimulus and infrastructure spending, and restore relationships with key allies, a goal that Biden’s meetings with the Japanese Prime Minister Suga this week reflected Yoshihide.

The Biden administration faces a number of other foreign policy challenges at the same time, from the president’s announcement this week to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan by September 11, to efforts to keep nuclear talks with Iran despite the attack to resume facility on Tehran’s nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz last Sunday.

That’s a lot that every new president has to deal with. However, how skillfully Biden approaches the combined, growing challenge from Russia and China will shape our era.

Frederick Kempe is a best-selling author, award-winning journalist, and President and CEO of the Atlantic Council, one of America’s most influential think tanks on global affairs. He worked for the Wall Street Journal for more than 25 years as foreign correspondent, assistant editor-in-chief and senior editor for the European edition of the newspaper. His latest book – “Berlin 1961: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the Most Dangerous Place in the World” – was a New York Times bestseller and was published in more than a dozen languages. Follow him on Twitter @FredKempe and subscribe here to Inflection Points, his view every Saturday of the top stories and trends of the past week.

More information from CNBC staff can be found here @ CNBCopinion on twitter.

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How the Tiny Kingdom of Bhutan Out-Vaccinated Many of the World

How the Tiny Kingdom of Bhutan Out-Vaccinated Most of the World

THIMPHU, Bhutan – The Lunana area of ​​Bhutan is remote even by the standards of an isolated Himalayan kingdom: it stretches over an area roughly twice the size of New York City, borders the far west of China, includes glacial lakes and some of the highest peaks in the world. and cannot be reached by car.

Still, most of the people who live there have already received a coronavirus vaccine.

The vials of Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine arrived by helicopter last month and were handed out by health workers walking from village to village through snow and ice. Vaccination was carried out in the area’s 13 settlements even after yaks damaged some of the field tents that volunteers had set up for patients.

“I was vaccinated first to prove to my villagers that the vaccine is not fatal and safe to take,” said Pema, a village chief in Lunana who is in his 50s and has a name, over the phone. “After that, everyone here took the push.”

Lunana’s campaign is part of a quiet success story with vaccines in one of the poorest countries in Asia. As of Saturday, Bhutan, a Buddhist kingdom that has emphasized the welfare of its citizens over national prosperity, had given an initial dose of vaccine to more than 478,000 people, over 60 percent of its population. The Department of Health said this month that more than 93 percent of eligible adults had received their first shots.

The vast majority of Bhutan’s first doses were given in around 1,200 vaccination centers over a one-week period in late March and early April. According to a database from the New York Times, the country’s vaccination rate was the sixth highest in the world on Saturday at 63 doses per 100 people.

That rate was higher than that of the United Kingdom and the United States, more than seven times that of neighboring India and almost six times the global average. Bhutan also ranks ahead of several other geographically isolated countries with small populations, including Iceland and the Maldives.

Dasho Dechen Wangmo, the Minister of Health of Bhutan, attributed his success to the “leadership and leadership” of the king of the country, public solidarity, the general lack of vaccine reluctance and a primary health system that enabled us to “use the services ourselves remote parts of the country. “

“As a small country of just over 750,000 people, a two-week vaccination campaign was possible,” Ms. Dechen Wangmo said in an email. “There were minor logistical problems during the vaccination, but they were all manageable.”

All doses used so far have been donated by the Government of India, where the drug is known as Covishield and is made by the Serum Institute of India, the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer. The government of Bhutan has announced that it will give a second dose approximately eight to 12 weeks after the first round, as per the guidelines for the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Will Parks, the representative of UNICEF, the United Nations Organization for Children, in Bhutan, said the first round was a “success story, not only in terms of coverage, but also in terms of the way the vaccination campaign is carried out Implementation was carried out from planning to joint implementation. “

“It involved the participation of the highest authority in the local community,” he said.

The campaign relied in part on a corps of volunteers known as the Guardians of Peace, operating under the authority of Bhutan’s King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck.

Updated

April 17, 2021, 6:20 p.m. ET

In Lunana, eight volunteers set up field tents and helped move oxygen tanks from village to village, said Karma Tashi, a member of the government’s four-person vaccination team. The tanks were a precautionary measure in case villagers had negative reactions to the gunfire.

To save time, the team administered vaccines during the day and walked between villages at night – often 10 to 14 hours straight.

The yak damage to the tents wasn’t the only hiccups. Some villagers were initially not vaccinated because they were harvesting barley or because they were concerned about possible side effects. “But after we told them about the benefits, they agreed,” said Tashi.

By April 12, 464 of the approximately 800 residents of Lunana had received an initial dose, according to the government. The population includes minors who are not eligible for vaccines.

Health care in Bhutan, a landlocked country slightly larger than Maryland and bordering Tibet, is free. According to the World Health Organization, life expectancy there more than doubled to 69.5 years between 1960 and 2014. The immunization rates have been over 95 percent in recent years.

However, the health system in Bhutan is “barely self-sustaining,” and patients in need of expensive or sophisticated treatments are often sent to India or Thailand at the expense of the government, said Dr. Yot Teerawattananon, a Thai health economist at the National University of Singapore.

A government committee in Bhutan meets once a week to make decisions about which patients should be sent overseas for treatment, said Dr. Yot. He said the committee, which focuses on brain and heart surgery, kidney transplants and cancer treatment, is informally known as the “death committee.”

What You Need To Know About The Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Break In The United States

    • On April 13, 2021, U.S. health officials called for an immediate halt to use of Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose Covid-19 vaccine after six recipients in the U.S. developed a rare blood clot disorder within one to three weeks of vaccination.
    • All 50 states, Washington, DC, and Puerto Rico have temporarily suspended use of the vaccine or suspended from recommended vendors. The U.S. military, government-run vaccination centers, and a variety of private companies, including CVS, Walgreens, Rite Aid, Walmart, and Publix, also paused the injections.
    • Fewer than one in a million Johnson & Johnson vaccinations are currently being studied. If there is indeed a risk of blood clots from the vaccine – which has yet to be determined – the risk is extremely small. The risk of contracting Covid-19 in the United States is much higher.
    • The hiatus could complicate the country’s vaccination efforts at a time when many states are facing spikes in new cases and are trying to address vaccine hesitation.
    • Johnson & Johnson has also decided to delay the launch of its vaccine in Europe amid concerns about rare blood clots, which is taking another blow to the vaccine surge in Europe. South Africa, devastated by a contagious variant of the virus found there, also stopped using the vaccine. Australia announced that it would not buy cans.

“I don’t think they could cope with the increase in severe Covid cases if this happens. So it is important that you prioritize Covid vaccination,” he said, referring to Bhutan’s health authorities.

Bhutan has reported fewer than 1,000 coronavirus infections and only one death. The borders, which were already narrow by global comparison before the pandemic, have been closed for a year, with a few exceptions, and everyone who enters the country must be quarantined for 21 days.

This includes Prime Minister Lotay Tshering, who received his first dose of vaccine last month after visiting Bangladesh in quarantine. He has been supporting the vaccination effort on his official Facebook page for the past few weeks.

“My days are characterized by virtual meetings in numerous areas that require attention, as I am closely following the vaccination campaign on site,” wrote the surgeon Dr. Tshering in early April. “So far, with your prayers and blessings, everything is going well.”

The economy in Lunana depends on animal husbandry and the harvest of a so-called caterpillar mushroom, which is valued as an aphrodisiac in China. The people speak Dzongkha, the national language and a local dialect.

Last year, the drama “Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom” was the second film ever selected to represent Bhutan at the Academy Awards. It was filmed using solar batteries and the cast included local villagers.

Lunana’s headmaster Kaka, who has only one name, said the most important part of the vaccination campaign is not on the ground, but in the sky.

“If there hadn’t been a helicopter,” he said, “getting the vaccines would have been a problem as there is no access road.”

Chencho Dema reported from Thimphu, Bhutan and Mike Ives from Hong Kong.

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‘Roaring Kitty’ forgoes fast GameStop choices payday within the tens of millions, raises stake

'Roaring Kitty' Keith Gill defends GameStop posts, says he is as bullish as ever on the stock

Keith Gill, the favorite of the Reddit trading people and the man who inspired the epic GameStop Short Squeeze, just doubled his bet on the video game dealer and foregoing a quick million dollar win to increase his stake.

The investor, who offers DeepF —— Value on Reddit and Roaring Kitty on YouTube, exercised his 500 GameStop call option contracts as they expired on Friday, giving him 50,000 more shares at an exercise price of only 12 USD. If he had sold the options at Friday’s price, he could have made more than $ 7 million on the bet.

In addition to exercising these options contracts, Gill bought 50,000 more GameStop shares and increased his total investment to 200,000 shares valued at more than $ 30 million.

While he’s been giving up the quick payday on this options trading, his long investment is now even wilder profitable at its average cost of $ 55.17, according to Gill’s latest update on the Reddit r / WallStreetBets forum on Friday. GameStop closed at $ 154.69 on Friday, bringing it to a profit of nearly $ 20 million. (The post hasn’t been independently verified by CNBC so we’ll assume it’s his actual account.)

Gill attracted an army of day traders who piled into the stationary video game and call options, propelling stocks up 400% in a single week in January. GameStop is up 720% over the year.

Shares rose slightly after close of business with some investors, perhaps encouraging Gill to exercise his call options to get even longer.

The investor was a former Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance marketer. Through YouTube videos and Reddit posts, Gill encouraged a group of retailers to drive out hedge fund short selling on GameStop.

The action got so wild at one point that brokers, including Robinhood, had to restrict trading in stocks as it blew up their clearinghouse margin. The mania also led to a series of Congressional hearings where Gill discussed broker practices and retail gamifying.

Gill owned 10,000 shares of GameStop at the end of 2020 and increased his stake to 50,000 shares in January and 100,000 shares in mid-February. Judging by the updates he posted on Reddit, he has not sold his GameStop stakes in the incredibly short period of time or in the period that followed.

The GameStop story is far from over. In addition to reviewing the retail saga, the company is itself in the midst of a transformation and hopes to capitalize on the massive price rally.

GameStop announced a $ 1 billion stock sale in early April to accelerate the transition to e-commerce led by activist investor and board member Ryan Cohen, co-founder of Chewy. The company also hired former Amazon and Google CEO Jenna Owens as its new chief operating officer.

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Prince Philip Is Laid to Relaxation in a Somber 50-Minute Ceremony

Prince Philip Is Laid to Rest in a Somber 50-Minute Ceremony

LONDON – His coffin was carried by a military green Land Rover he helped design. Prince Philip was buried at Windsor Castle on Saturday in a rigorous, carefully choreographed funeral that captured his steely role in the British royal family and offered a solemn glimpse into his uncertain future.

Queen Elizabeth II said goodbye to Philip, her husband, who died of solitude in St. George’s Chapel on April 9, two months before his 100th birthday. She was dressed in a mask and kept away from her children and grandchildren by pandemic social distancing requirements that limited attendance to 30 people.

Her grandsons Prince William and Prince Harry were also separated from one of their cousins ​​as they walked behind Philip’s coffin. This quirk of royal protocol dramatized the brotherhood gap that opened following Harry’s marriage to a former American actress, Meghan Markle.

That wedding took place almost three years ago in the same Gothic chapel on a similarly crystal clear Saturday. It was both a joyful contrast and a poignant reminder of the turmoil that has gripped the House of Windsor since its patriarch retired and a new generation of royals took the spotlight.

A thaw shimmered between Harry and William as the brothers walked together after the funeral and spoke softly to each other. But this was a dire occasion, a family sadly gathered to mark the death of a man who many credited with providing stability and discipline to younger kings as they struggled to face the pressures of duty and fame .

If Harry and Meghan’s wedding was a vivid depiction of a new-age royal family with a gospel choir and African-American preacher, Philip’s funeral was a throwback to the traditions of the monarchy. There was no eulogy, despite some reports that Prince Charles would pay tribute to his father.

The Archbishop of Canterbury, the Most Rev. Justin Welby, and the Dean of Windsor, the Right Rev. David Conner, recited the readings and not the family members. A four-member choir, cut off by the pandemic and standing apart on a stone floor, sang hymns chosen by Philip, the voices of which echoed in the empty nave of the chapel.

The royal family listened in silence, separated in family bubbles, their faces softly lit by lamps. Harry sat alone and bowed his head during a hymn.

Less than an hour later, Philip’s coffin was lowered into the royal vault when the dean said, “Go on your journey of this world, oh Christian soul” and the pipe major of the Royal Regiment of Scotland was playing. The brisk schedule matched the uncomplicated manner of Philip, a man known for both his distant demeanor and fondness for gaffes, as well as his constant loyalty to the Queen.

Still, the ceremony was rich in symbols of the military career that Philip, whose official title was Duke of Edinburgh, abandoned when his young wife unexpectedly ascended to the throne in 1953 after the death of her father, George VI.

The Duke’s coffin was wrapped in his personal standard and carried his sword and naval cap. On nine pillows on the altar were military insignia, including the wings of the Royal Air Force of Philip and the staff of the field marshal, as well as the Order of the Elephant given to him by Denmark and the Order of the Savior of Greece. These symbolized his royal ancestry as Prince of Denmark and Greece.

After Philip was buried, the Royal Marines trumpeters played “The Last Post” and “Action Stations,” a call to battle stations that is seldom played at funerals but can be requested by a Royal Navy veteran. During World War II, the Duke saw combat aboard a British destroyer and battleship.

Updated

April 17, 2021, 10:28 p.m. ET

Nothing captured the military feel of the day quite like the bespoke Land Rover Defender that carried Philip on his final trip to the chapel. The Duke tinkered with the vehicle’s design for 18 years, settling on an open back and metal pins to secure his coffin. He asked for the military green paint.

At 3 p.m. after the Land Rover had passed under Windsor’s crenellated towers and arrived at the chapel – to the metronomic crack of cannons and bells – there was a national minute of silence.

The BBC and other broadcasters respectfully covered the ceremony but avoided the blanket programming that generated more than 100,000 complaints last week when the BBC anticipated popular shows to analyze every aspect of Philip’s life. Some compared the wall-to-wall approach to that of North Korea.

Yet for a country that worships its queen, her husband’s funeral was a truly national moment – as some have said, with the funeral of Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother in 2002 that saw more than a million people attending Her Cortege Pass from Westminster Abbey to Windsor Castle.

“There is a tremendous, almost subconscious sense of the monarchy in Britain that is not appreciated by the metropolitan media,” said Vernon Bogdanor, a research professor of British Politics and Government at King’s College London. “It’s inarticulate, but it comes out at those crucial moments.”

Philip’s funeral, however, did not attract the crowd of other royal ceremonies. Because of the pandemic, Buckingham Palace urged people not to come to Windsor, the city west of London that the castle overlooks. On a quiet Saturday, it seemed like most people had followed this advice.

The restrictions meant Philip’s converted Land Rover made a journey of just a few hundred meters, rather than the 22 miles from Buckingham Palace to Windsor. Instead of crowds lining the route, the focus was on troops from the Royal Navy, Marines, Highlanders and the Knights of Windsor in passing.

Queen Elizabeth, who will turn 95 next week, followed the procession in her shiny eggplant Bentley, not at the head, as would have been the custom for a sovereign. Charles, her heir, led the procession, along with his sister, Princess Anne.

These boundaries also meant a circumscribed guest list within the chapel. Among those who weren’t in attendance: Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who, according to Downing Street, gave up his seat so the royal family could invite an extra guest, and Meghan, who is pregnant and was not there on her doctor’s advice.

The Queen invited three German relatives of Philip, a reminder of his non-British roots and a sign of the march of history. In 1947, in the shadow of World War II, the Duke’s German family was kept away from the couple’s wedding.

The Queen had other delicate protocol decisions to make. She decreed that none of the male family members would wear military uniforms at the ceremony – a decision that saved Harry the outrage of appearing in civilian clothes despite serving in Afghanistan. As part of the agreement with the palace under which he retired from royal life, Harry was stripped of his military honorary degrees.

The British news media reported that Prince Andrew, the Queen’s second son, had forced the problem by demanding that he wear an admiral’s uniform, a title he was supposed to acquire on his 60th birthday last year. He moved for the appointment to be postponed after he became embroiled in a scandal over his friendship with disgraced financier and sex predator Jeffrey Epstein that led to Andrew’s exile from royal duties.

The scandal that erupted after an interview Andrew gave the BBC in 2019 sparked a tumultuous time for the royal family. Two months later, Harry and Meghan announced their plans to step down from their official duties and leave the UK.

They settled in Southern California and reappeared last month for an extraordinary interview with Oprah Winfrey in which Meghan said a member or members of the royal family raised concerns about the skin color of the couple’s unborn child.

Royal observers have attributed some of the family’s dysfunction to the diminishing role of their patriarch. Philip retired from his duties in 2017 and moved to a cottage on the grounds of one of the Queen’s estates, Sandringham, where he painted in oils and pursued his hobby of driving carriages.

At the funeral there was a slight nod to Philip’s hobby: as his coffin drove through the square in Windsor, he passed a polished dark green car with his two beloved ponies Balmoral Nevis and Notlaw Storm.

Stephen Castle contributed to the coverage.

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How Amazon fought the union drive in Alabama

How Amazon fought the union drive in Alabama

Die Menschen protestieren am 22. März 2021 in Los Angeles, Kalifornien, um die gewerkschaftlichen Bemühungen der Arbeiter im Amazonasgebiet von Alabama zu unterstützen.

Lucy Nicholson | Reuters

Amazon hat letzte Woche eine Gewerkschaftsaktion in einem seiner Lagerhäuser in Alabama besiegt, ein großer Gewinn für den E-Commerce-Riesen, der seit langem gegen Gewerkschaftsversuche in seinen Einrichtungen gekämpft hat.

Die Arbeiter im Lagerhaus in Bessemer, Alabama, stimmten mit überwältigender Mehrheit für die Ablehnung der Gewerkschaftsbildung, wobei weniger als 30% der Stimmen dafür stimmten. Die Gewerkschaft für Einzelhandel, Großhandel und Kaufhäuser, die die Gewerkschaftsaktion leitete, beabsichtigt, das Ergebnis in Frage zu stellen, und argumentiert, dass Amazon vor und während der Abstimmung mit einigen seiner gewerkschaftsfeindlichen Aktivitäten gegen das Gesetz verstoßen habe.

Das Ergebnis ist ein Rückschlag für die organisierte Arbeit, die gehofft hatte, dass die Bessemer-Wahl dazu beitragen würde, bei Amazon Fuß zu fassen. Gewerkschaften, Arbeitnehmervertreter und einige Mitarbeiter des Bessemer-Werks, bekannt als BHM1, sind jedoch der Ansicht, dass die Bessemer-Wahlen weitere Organisationsversuche in anderen Lagern im ganzen Land ankurbeln werden. Die Gewerkschaftsführer sagten, die Wahlen in Bessemer hätten der Öffentlichkeit auch gezeigt, wie weit die Arbeitgeber gehen werden, um Gewerkschaften zu verhindern.

Nach Angaben mehrerer Arbeitnehmer und Gewerkschaftsvertreter, die die Taktik beschrieben haben, hat Amazon bei BHM1 eine aggressive PR-Kampagne gestartet, die Textnachrichten an Mitarbeiter, Broschüren, eine Website, auf der die Arbeitnehmer aufgefordert wurden, “ohne Gebühren zu arbeiten”, und Flugblätter, die in Badezimmern veröffentlicht wurden und die die Arbeitnehmer aufforderten zu “NEIN stimmen.”

Amazon verschickte Textnachrichten und Mailer, in denen die Mitarbeiter in seiner Einrichtung in Bessemer, Alabama, aufgefordert wurden, “NEIN zu stimmen”.

Die größte Gelegenheit für Amazon, die Arbeitnehmer zu beeinflussen, bestand in Form von so genannten Captive-Audience-Meetings, an denen die Arbeitnehmer während ihrer Schicht teilnehmen mussten. Amazon hielt die Treffen wöchentlich von Ende Januar bis zum Versand der Stimmzettel Anfang Februar ab. Die Mitarbeiter saßen ungefähr 30 Minuten lang in PowerPoint-Präsentationen, um die Gewerkschaftsbildung zu entmutigen, und erhielten die Gelegenheit, Fragen von Vertretern von Amazon zu stellen.

Gefangene Publikumsversammlungen sind eine gängige Taktik, die Arbeitgeber bei Gewerkschaftskampagnen anwenden. Befürworter vorgeschlagener arbeitsrechtlicher Reformen wie des Gesetzes zum Schutz des Organisationsrechts, das im Senat verabschiedet werden soll, haben argumentiert, dass Treffen in Gefangenschaft als Forum für Arbeitgeber dienen, um gewerkschaftsfeindliche Botschaften zu übermitteln, “ohne der Gewerkschaft die Möglichkeit dazu zu geben.” reagieren.” Das PRO-Gesetz würde es Arbeitgebern verbieten, diese Treffen obligatorisch zu machen.

Amazon sagte, es habe laufende Treffen in kleinen Gruppen veranstaltet, um den Mitarbeitern die Möglichkeit zu geben, alle Fakten über den Beitritt zu einer Gewerkschaft und über den Wahlprozess selbst zu erfahren.

Das Unternehmen verteidigte auch seine Reaktion auf die Gewerkschaftskampagne im weiteren Sinne und argumentierte in einer Erklärung nach dem Ergebnis, dass die Arbeitnehmer “weitaus mehr Anti-Amazon-Botschaften von Gewerkschaften, politischen Entscheidungsträgern und Medien gehört haben, als sie von uns gehört haben”.

Warum einige mit “Nein” gestimmt haben

Die Nachrichten von Amazon in den Meetings waren für einige BHM1-Mitarbeiter überzeugender als für andere.

Ein Mitarbeiter von Bessemer, der letztes Jahr bei Amazon angefangen hatte, sagte, er habe das Gefühl, Amazon habe bei Gesprächen mit Arbeitnehmern über die Gewerkschaft einige Schreckensstrategien angewandt, sagte aber auch gegenüber CNBC, er verstehe nicht, wie die Gewerkschaft den Arbeitnehmern bei BHM1 helfen würde. Diese Person, die um Anonymität bat, um Vergeltungsmaßnahmen zu verhindern, sagte, die RWDSU habe nicht erklärt, was sie für die Arbeitnehmer tun würden, und nicht auf ihre Anfrage nach Informationen darüber geantwortet, wie sie Mitarbeitern auf anderen Baustellen geholfen hätten.

Abgesehen von seinen Zweifeln an der RWDSU sagte dieser Mitarbeiter, er habe auch in erster Linie positive Erfahrungen bei Amazon gemacht. Während sich einige Arbeiter über den stressigen und anspruchsvollen Charakter der Arbeit beschwerten, sagte er, ein früherer Baujob habe ihn auf die körperliche Arbeit der Lagerarbeit vorbereitet, so dass er es leicht finde. Die Bezahlung und die Vorteile von Amazon sind auch eine Verbesserung gegenüber seinem vorherigen Job.

Am Ende stimmte dieser Arbeiter gegen die Gewerkschaftsbildung.

In privaten Facebook-Gruppen, in denen Amazon-Mitarbeiter miteinander interagieren, teilten andere BHM1-Mitarbeiter ihre Gedanken über die Gewerkschaftskampagne mit. Ein Arbeitnehmer befürchtete, dass die Arbeitnehmer bei einer Abstimmung in der Gewerkschaft den Zugang zu bestimmten Leistungen von Amazon verlieren würden, beispielsweise zum Weiterbildungsprogramm, bei dem Amazon einen Prozentsatz der Studiengebühren für die Ausbildung von Lagerarbeitern für Jobs in anderen Bereichen mit hoher Nachfrage zahlt.

Ein anderer Arbeiter war der Meinung, dass eine Gewerkschaft nicht notwendig sei, und behauptete, wenn man hart arbeitet, könne man bei Amazon erfolgreich sein: “Ich habe mit Nein gestimmt. Amazon ist nur ein Spiel mit Regeln. Lernen Sie die Regeln, spielen Sie das Spiel, steigen Sie auf, gewinnen Sie. “”

Obligatorische Sitzungen

Einige BHM1-Mitarbeiter empfanden die gewerkschaftsfeindlichen Nachrichten von Amazon als zu aggressiv.

Ein Mitarbeiter von BHM1, der als Stower arbeitet und Gegenstände in leere Lagerplätze in der gesamten Einrichtung überführt, sagte, Amazon habe die Texte, Flyer und obligatorischen Besprechungen so gestaltet, dass die Botschaft vermittelt wird, dass die Gewerkschaft niemandem helfen würde. Dieser Arbeitnehmer bat um Anonymität aus Sorge um den Verlust seines Arbeitsplatzes.

Der Arbeiter, der für die Gewerkschaft gestimmt hatte, sagte, er sei vorsichtig, Unterstützung für die Gewerkschaftsbildung vor Amazon und seinen Mitarbeitern zu zeigen, und sei nervös, Fragen zu stellen, statt dumm zu sein, um nicht gefeuert zu werden.

Luftaufnahme der Amazonas-Einrichtung in Bessemer, Alabama, 5. März 2021, in der die Arbeitnehmer darüber abstimmen werden, ob sie sich gewerkschaftlich organisieren wollen.

Dustin Chambers | Reuters

In einer obligatorischen Sitzung, die vor der Verteilung der Stimmzettel im Februar stattfand, versuchte Amazon, Zweifel daran zu wecken, wie die Arbeitnehmergebühren ausgegeben werden, indem er den Arbeitnehmern mitteilte, dass die RWDSU jährlich mehr als 100.000 US-Dollar für Fahrzeuge für Arbeitnehmer ausgab. Der Arbeiter war skeptisch gegenüber der Präsentation von Amazon und dachte, dass Amazon wahrscheinlich jedes Jahr viel mehr für Autos ausgab als die Gewerkschaft.

Gewerkschaftspräsident Stuart Appelbaum sagte in einem Interview, dass die RWDSU Autos für einige Vertreter kauft, deren Aufgabe es ist, von Arbeitsplatz zu Arbeitsplatz zu reisen, um Mitglieder zu vertreten und zu betreuen.

Amazon sagte, es wolle den Arbeitnehmern, insbesondere denjenigen ohne Vorkenntnisse der Gewerkschaften, erklären, dass eine Gewerkschaft ein Unternehmen ist, das Beiträge erhebt und erklärt, wie diese Beiträge verwendet werden können.

In einem weiteren obligatorischen Treffen teilten die beiden Bessemer-Mitarbeiter CNBC mit, Amazon habe Beispiele früherer Verträge verteilt, die die RWDSU gewonnen habe, und versucht, die Mängel der Gewerkschaft herauszustellen. Amazon behauptete auch, dass die RWDSU in erster Linie eine Geflügelarbeitergewerkschaft sei, die nur über begrenzte Erfahrung in der Vertretung von Lagerarbeitern verfüge.

Appelbaum sagte, Geflügelarbeiter machten einen bedeutenden Teil der RWDSU-Mitgliedschaft in Alabama aus, und viele der Organisatoren, die die Kampagne leiteten und sich beim Abschluss ihrer Schicht an Amazon-Arbeiter außerhalb von BHM1 wandten, stammten aus nahe gelegenen Geflügelfabriken. Die Gewerkschaft vertritt auch Arbeitnehmer in anderen Branchen, darunter Einzelhandel, Lebensmittelproduktion, gemeinnützige Organisationen und Cannabis, sagte Chelsea Connor, Sprecherin der RWDSU.

Auf die Frage, ob die RWDSU als Geflügelgewerkschaft charakterisiert sei, antwortete Amazon, sie wolle den Arbeitnehmern zeigen, wie gut oder schlecht die Gewerkschaft ihren Arbeitgeber verstehen könne.

Während der Treffen versuchte Amazon auch, negative Ergebnisse hervorzuheben, die sich aus der Abstimmung für die Gewerkschaft ergeben könnten. Amazon sagte den Arbeitern, die Gewerkschaft könne die Arbeiter zum Streik zwingen und die Arbeitnehmer könnten in Zukunft ihre Leistungen verlieren, sagten die Arbeiter gegenüber CNBC.

Das Mid-South-Büro der RWDSU, das die Organisation bei Amazon leitete, widersprach der Behauptung von Amazon, dass die Gewerkschaft BHM1-Arbeiter zum Streik zwingen würde, und nannte es laut den an die Arbeiter verteilten Mitteilungen eine “Angst-Taktik”.

“Amazon hat unterstellt, dass die Gewerkschaft Sie in einen Streik ziehen wird”, sagte Randy Hadley, Präsident des Mid-South Council, in einem Brief an die Arbeiter im Februar, in dem auch andere Behauptungen von Amazon angesprochen werden. “Hier sind die Fakten, unsere Mitgliedschaft und unsere Mitgliedschaft kontrollieren NUR, ob mit einer Super-Mehrheit gestreikt werden soll oder nicht. Dies bedeutet, dass fast 4.000 Amazon-Arbeiter abstimmen müssten, um in den Streik zu treten. Ein Streik kann bei Bedarf nützlich sein, ist es aber auch.” sehr, sehr selten. Dies ist eine weitere Angst-Taktik von Amazon. “

Amazon sagte, es wollte die Arbeitnehmer darauf hinweisen, dass die Gewerkschaft bei einer Abstimmung in einer Gewerkschaft einen Streik fordern könnte, da dies der Haupthebel der Gewerkschaft gegenüber einem Arbeitgeber ist.

Als Antwort auf die Frage, ob es den Arbeitnehmern mitgeteilt wurde, dass sie ihre Leistungen verlieren könnten, wenn eine Gewerkschaft gewählt wird, sagte Amazon, es habe versucht, die Arbeitnehmer im Rahmen der allgemeinen Bildung über Gewerkschaften darüber zu informieren, dass es viele Ergebnisse gibt, die sich aus Tarifverhandlungen ergeben können.

Nicht die letzte Anstrengung

Amazon-Mitarbeiter, Gewerkschaftsführer und Arbeitnehmervertreter hoffen, dass der Verlust in Alabama nicht der letzte Versuch sein wird, die weitläufige Belegschaft des Einzelhandelsgiganten zu organisieren.

Möglicherweise gibt es auch zukünftige Kampagnen bei BHM1. Der Arbeiter, der für die Gewerkschaft gestimmt hat, sagte, einige gewerkschaftsfreundliche Angestellte hätten die Möglichkeit diskutiert, sich an die Teamsters zu wenden und eine zukünftige Gewerkschaftskampagne in ihrem Lager durchzuführen.

An anderer Stelle erwägen Amazonas-Arbeiter und Gewerkschaften unterschiedliche Organisationsstrategien. Das Teamsters kommuniziert mit Amazon-Fahrern und Lagerarbeitern in einer Einrichtung in Iowa und erwägt Wege, um Arbeiter über den Wahlprozess hinaus zu sammeln. Amazon-Mitarbeiter in Chicago haben eine Gruppe gebildet, um Mitarbeiter in Einrichtungen in der Region zu organisieren, die Amazonians United Chicagoland heißt.

Ein Mitarbeiter einer Amazon-Einrichtung in New Jersey, der ebenfalls um Anonymität bat, sagte, er habe sich zuvor an eine Gewerkschaft gewandt, um die Einrichtung zu organisieren. Nachdem der Arbeiter das Ergebnis in Bessemer gesehen hatte, sagte er, dass sie zum Zeichenbrett zurückkehren und sich mit informelleren Taktiken befassen, um eine Hebelwirkung zu erzielen.

Susan Schurman, Professorin an der School of Management and Labour Relations der Rutgers University, verwies auf die Alphabet Workers Union, eine kürzlich gegründete Minderheitengewerkschaft mit mehr als 800 Google-Mitarbeitern, als potenzielles Modell für Amazon-Mitarbeiter.

Im Gegensatz zu traditionellen Gewerkschaften repräsentieren Minderheitengewerkschaften nicht die Mehrheit der Arbeitnehmer, sondern nur diejenigen, die sich für einen Beitritt entscheiden. Sie werden auch von der NLRB nicht anerkannt und fungieren nicht als Verhandlungspartner mit Arbeitgebern.

Schurman sagte jedoch, dass Minderheitengewerkschaften als “Weg zu Mehrheitsgewerkschaften” dienen und ein wirksames Instrument für den Aufbau von Arbeitnehmerunterstützung sein können, noch bevor eine formelle Kampagne mit der NLRB gestartet wird.

“Warum nicht bleiben und eine Organisation aufbauen und dabei bleiben?” Sagte Schurman. “Lassen Sie die Arbeiter neue Mitglieder rekrutieren und den Wert einer kollektiven Verhandlungsmacht demonstrieren.”

Appelbaum, der Präsident der RWDSU, sagte, eine Strategie der Minderheitengewerkschaft sei “eine Überlegung wert”.

“Wir haben noch keine Entscheidung getroffen, aber ich denke, wir werden es uns ansehen”, sagte Appelbaum. “Wir wissen, dass wir nicht weggehen.”

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Raúl Castro to Step Down as Head of Cuba’s Communist Social gathering

Raúl Castro to Step Down as Head of Cuba’s Communist Party

MEXICO CITY – Raúl Castro announced on Friday that he was handing over the leadership of the ruling Cuban Communist Party to a younger generation “full of passion and anti-imperialist spirit”, leaving the island nation for the first time without Castro in a leadership role for over 60 years.

Mr Castro, who will turn 90 in June, reiterated his long-awaited intention to resign in a speech opening the Communist Party Congress on Friday. He is expected to officially resign and announce his replacement before the conference ends on Monday.

After two terms as President of Cuba, Mr. Castro resigned from this office in 2018 and was replaced by his hand-picked successor, Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez.

The Cuban leadership is likely to announce further reforms during the party congress that will allow for more free market activity and further divert the country’s economy from the strict, state model introduced after the revolution that brought Mr Castro and his brother Fidel to power in 1959.

The Communist Party has no choice but to reform itself or to face growing discontent as Cuba faces its worst economic crisis since the 1990s following the fall of the Soviet Union. By introducing a new, younger political class, Mr Castro hopes to put the country on track to fully and fully embrace the economic reforms he has put in place in the years since the death of his brother Fidel – the leader of the revolution – five years ago to be fully accepted and implemented.

Mr Castro is seen as more pragmatic than Fidel, who is more willing to turn Cuba away from the communist model his brother advocated, which has brought the country great development achievements, including high literacy rates and quality health care for all Cubans, but it’s gone the economy in ruins.

“Of course, Raúl will continue to have influence, as Deng Xiaoping did when he resigned,” said Carlos Alzugaray, a party insider and former diplomat in the Cuban government, referring to the Chinese revolutionary leader who took over and implemented China after Mao Zedong a time of far-reaching market reforms.

Mr Alzugaray added that Mr Castro could deliberate on fundamental issues such as relations with the United States and major economic issues from his retirement. But he is unlikely to interfere in everyday life in Cuba.

“It won’t be a clean affair, it’s not how the system works in Cuba,” said Alzugaray. “It’s not like the US, where the former presidents have no influence if they step down.”

Mr Castro announced in 2016 that he would give up his post as General Secretary of the Communist Party during this year’s party congress in order to hand over power to a younger generation. The Secretary General is the most powerful position in Cuba, more powerful than the Presidency, and is considered the second highest position.

Mr Díaz-Canel will likely be elected as the new general secretary of the Communist Party over the weekend to consolidate his leadership over Cuba. The two roles are often filled by the same person, with Fidel holding both positions for about 30 years.

Younger members are expected to be elected to the 17-member Politburo before the end of the congress to further clarify what Cubans refer to as the “historical generation,” the veterans of the armed revolution.

Cuba has been ruled by an aging political class for decades, many of whom sparked the revolution in the 1950s and are seen as resistant to the reforms Mr Castro sought to impose.

Maria Abi-Habib reported from Mexico City. Ed Agustin contributed from Havana, Cuba.

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Traders search for hints of inflation in earnings within the week forward

5 things to know before the stock market opens Thursday, April 1

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Source: CNBC

The outcome will be the focus of attention for investors in the week ahead as they know if rising costs are pushing margins and signaling an increase in inflationary pressures.

From Coca-Cola and IBM to Johnson & Johnson to Netflix, investors will hear about a wide range of companies in America.

After a week, companies have outperformed earnings estimates by more than 84%, according to Refinitiv.

This three-month period is the first to be compared to last year’s profits that were hit by the pandemic. Earnings growth for the S&P 500 is an impressive 30.2% this quarter based on actual reports and estimates.

According to FactSet, this is the best three-month period since the third quarter of 2010.

Signs of margin pressure?

Big banks like JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America reported better-than-expected earnings last week.

The S&P 500 ended the week at a record high of 4,185, up 1.4%. The Dow, which was up a fourth week, rose 1.2 to end the week on a record 34,200. Nasdaq was up 1.1% that week to hit 14,052.

Utilities were the top performing large S&P sector, up 3.7%, followed by materials, up 3.2%, and healthcare, up 2.9%. The technology gained 1%. Financials rose 0.7% while industrials rose 0.6%.

Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy at RBC, said she was watching next week’s earnings for signs of margin pressure from higher commodity prices, supply chain issues and other cost factors.

“These big forces that are currently threatening margins don’t really apply to financial stocks. They apply more to industrial companies, materials companies and consumer companies,” she said.

“In my opinion [sectors] How the industrials give you color on the edges, “added Calvasina.” Edges really are the big question mark for the future. I definitely watch and listen to what companies are going to say about taxes. “

President Joe Biden has proposed raising corporate taxes from 21% to 28% to help pay for his infrastructure plan.

While the fate of the tax hike is not yet clear, the rise in other costs is evident. Fuel costs have risen sharply since the beginning of the year, with oil prices up 30%. Sawn timber prices on the futures market are at an all-time high and copper futures have risen by around 17% since the beginning of the year.

According to Calvasina, companies face headwinds and tailwinds.

“Companies say we’ve found new ways to cut costs. When revenues come back, margins will skyrocket,” she said. “Some of the costs associated with Covid will come down. These are some of the positives.”

But not every company will see these benefits. “We could begin to see wage pressure again. Rising raw material costs – rise in the PPI and rise in the CPI – these are negative effects on margins,” said Calvasina, referring to the producer and consumer price indices.

Looking for evidence of inflation

Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said he was also watching the margin comments carefully for effects on individual stocks, but also what they say in general about inflation infiltration into the economy.

“The most interesting thing about the result is the profit margins. Some companies will be under pressure because they will see price increases and others not because they can pass it on,” said Boockvar.

He said he would be very careful to see if the semiconductor shortage shows up in tech companies’ earnings. The automakers have already scored a hit and scaled back production due to the lack of chips.

The March CPI showed headline inflation rising to 2.6% yoy. A 9.1% increase in gasoline prices contributed to earnings.

Some of the inflation gains this spring are likely to be temporary as they have been compared to the very low levels seen last year when the economy closed.

Aside from the receipts, the week should be pretty quiet. Federal Reserve spokesmen have paused and are on a lockdown before the meeting in late April.

“It’s really going to be a shift in focus to earnings and the inflation story,” said Boockvar.

Economic recovery

Last week, economic reports underscored how strong economic momentum could be in the second quarter. Retail sales rose nearly 10% in March and jobless claims were the lowest of the recovery.

Aside from Friday’s manufacturing and services PMI data, little data is in for the coming week. However, following Thursday’s report of 576,000 new claims, markets will be keeping a close eye on unemployment – the lowest level since the pandemic began.

“The sharp decline in claims suggests that job separation rates may normalize, a good sign for April payroll,” say Barclays economists. Surprisingly, 916,000 jobs were created in March, and economists have announced that they are now expecting a series of reports that show the workforce has increased by 1 million or more.

However, Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont, says it may be too early to read too much into damage data, and next week’s report will be important.

He said the decline in claims was due to sharp declines in a number of states, including more than half in California and even larger percentage declines in Kentucky and Virginia.

“Unfortunately, I have no confidence that these steps will not be at least partially reversed next week,” he wrote. “The ongoing claims in the special pandemic programs continue to fluctuate up and down each week, with the most recent reading for the period ending March 27 being a down week.”

Watch bonds

Stock investors will also watch the bond market, where yields fell over the past week and then reversed. The 10-year treasury was at 1.59% on Friday after falling sharply on Thursday.

Returns move against price, and the 10-year maturity is the most commonly observed bond security because it affects mortgage rates and other loans.

“The 10-year mark is now trading in the 1.50% to 1.75% range,” said Boockvar.

“It will break under if inflation is temporary and it will break over if it turns out to be different,” he added. “I think we priced in the latest inflation statistics and then we’ll take into account what the real world is saying about corporations.”

Calendar for the week ahead

Monday

Merits: Coca-Cola, IBM, United Airlines, Zions Bancorp, FNB, Steel Dynamics

Tuesday

Merits: Johnson & Johnson, Travelers, Procter and Gamble, Netflix, Abbott Labs, CSX, Lockheed Martin, Intuitive Surgery, Tenet Healthcare, Philip Morris, Northern Trust, Fifth Third, KeyCorp, Comerica

Wednesday

Merits: Verizon, Chipotle, Whirlpool, Nasdaq, Baker Hughes, Anthem, Netgear, Spirit Airlines, Canadian Pacific Railway, Lam Research, Discover Financial, SLM, Halliburton, Knight-Swift Transportation

Thursday

Merits: AT&T, Intel, DR. Horton, American Airlines, Union Pacific, Alaska Air, Pentair, Tractor Supply, Celanese, Seagate Technology Biogen, Dow, Credit Suisse, SAP, Boston Beer, Mattel, Snap, Valero Energy, Freeport-McMoRan, Quest Diagnostics

7.45 a.m. Interest rate decision by the European Central Bank

8:30 am Initial jobless claims

10:00 am Existing home sales

Friday

Merits: American Express, Honeywell, Daimler, Financial Regions, Schlumberger, Kimberly-Clark

9:45 am Manufacturing PMI

9:45 a.m. Services PMI

11:00 am Sale of new houses

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Iran Says It Started Enriching Uranium to 60 P.c. How Essential Is That?

Iran Says It Began Enriching Uranium to 60 Percent. How Important Is That?

In response to the sabotage of an Israeli-affiliated Iranian nuclear site last weekend, Iran began enriching its uranium supply to 60 percent purity – the level the country has ever reached for a weapon.

Iran’s move, reported in state media on Friday, made good the threats Iranian officials announced following the sabotage that threw a new cloud over the talks to save the 2015 deal that broke the nuclear Limits Iran’s ability to trade in exchange for the relief of sanctions.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani went further and, when those talks resumed in Vienna, boasted that his scientists could easily enrich uranium to 90 percent purity – weapons grade fuel – despite the fact that, as Iranian leaders have repeatedly stressed, he did insisted that Iran “never aspires to make an atomic bomb. “

What is the significance of uranium purity, which is at the heart of the deal the negotiators are trying to save? And why is Iran making these claims? Some basic questions and answers:

Uranium contains a rare radioactive isotope called U-235, which can power nuclear reactors with low enrichment and atom bombs with much higher propulsion. The goal of uranium enrichment is to increase the percentage of U-235, which is often achieved through the use of centrifuges – machines that spin some form of unrefined uranium at high speed.

Under the nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Iran was allowed to keep up to 300 kilograms of uranium, which was enriched to 3.67 percent for civilian nuclear power. Iran also agreed to stop enriching uranium above 5 percent and shut down hundreds of centrifuges. The uranium supply fell well below the amount needed to make a single bomb.

After President Donald J. Trump rejected the Iran deal in 2018, imposed economic sanctions on Iran, and imposed further penalties, Iran took a tiered series of steps from complying with the deal to retaliation – increasing its uranium supply by 3.67 percent , Adding centrifuges and increasing uranium purity in part of the supply to 20 percent and restricting international inspectors’ access to some nuclear sites. Meanwhile, the country said these were easily reversible acts.

What makes the 60 percent enrichment level particularly threatening is that the difficult enrichment process becomes much easier and requires fewer centrifuges when it gets to the higher purities. In other words, a purity of 90 percent is much easier from 20 percent and even easier from 60 percent.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear surveillance arm, Iran had amassed 2,967.8 kilograms of uranium in February – roughly 14 times the nuclear deal limit and theoretically enough to power about three atomic bombs if refined to weapon quality. The stock contains 17.6 kilograms, enriched to 20 percent – also banned until 2030.

Almost certainly yes. While Iranian officials have come up with conflicting reports about the extent of centrifuge damage at Natanz, the sabotaged enrichment complex, at least one has claimed that several thousand machines have been destroyed. But Iran also has a second well-known enrichment site, an underground facility called Fordow, which houses around 1,000 centrifuges. Some were used earlier this year to enrich uranium to 20 percent.

Nuclear experts estimate that Iran would have to use around 500 centrifuges for this task in order to enrich uranium with a purity level of 20 percent to 60 percent. Around 100 more spinning machines would be needed to further increase the degree of cleaning to 90 percent.

In an interview, Olli Heinonen, a former chief inspector of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Iran could theoretically enrich from 60 percent to 90 percent in a week, compared to a month or so if it went up from 20 percent.

“It’s not a big difference. At this point, this is a demonstration, ”he said of Iran’s 60 percent risk of enrichment. “They want to show that they can.”

No. Dr. Heinonen and others said it was far more difficult to turn 90 percent enriched uranium into the core of an atomic bomb. It could take months. And such an estimate does not include the technology, testing, and time required to mount the weapon on a missile warhead, which could take much longer.

The danger of militarizing its nuclear capabilities has always been a negotiating tool for Iran – both in the talks that led to the 2015 agreement and in the ongoing negotiations. At the same time, Tehran has made it clear that it wants to reach an agreement that will end the onerous American sanctions that are severely hampering Iranian oil sales and international financial transactions. This partly explains Iran’s reluctance to take military revenge on attacks on its nuclear sites.

“Iran sees itself as a boxer in the ring,” said Mehrzad Boroujerdi, an Iran expert, professor and director of the School of Public and International Affairs at Virginia Tech. “People hit left and right without damaging the other side.”

With the 60 percent gain, Boroujerdi said, “Iranian leaders are trying to fall back on their aces.”

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Insurgency threatens Mozambique’s historic pure fuel funding increase

Insurgency threatens Mozambique’s historic natural gas investment boom

Pemba, Mozambique – Families wait in front of the port of Pemba for the boat of the evacuees from the coasts of Palma on April 1, 2021. More than a thousand people evacuated from the shores of the city of Palma arrived at the seaport of Pemba after insurgents attacked Palma on March 24, 2021.

Alfredo Zuniga / AFP via Getty Images

Mozambique had placed its economic hopes on the colossal natural gas reserves discovered a decade ago – but an escalating Islamist uprising threatens to tear the carpet out from a surge in private investment.

In late March, an armed Islamist group loosely connected to ISIS and known locally as Al-Shabab – not to be confused with the Somali militant group of the same name – attacked the gas-rich city of Palma in the country’s northern province of Cabo Delgado. inflict mass civilian casualties and displace tens of thousands.

The attack came within hours after French energy giant Total announced it was resuming its Mozambique Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project, a $ 20 billion facility located on the nearby Afungi peninsula Construction is.

According to Standard Bank, up to 120 billion US dollars are at stake nationwide for LNG projects.

The International Monetary Fund expects Mozambique’s GDP to grow by 2.1% in 2021, with inflation projected at 5.3%. However, Standard Bank recently highlighted in a statement that the escalation towards guerrilla warfare could undermine the benefits of the LNG projects.

“While long-term growth prospects, aided by LNG investments, remain broadly positive, armed conflict is limiting prospects for more inclusive growth,” it said.

Tax hit

Together with the humanitarian crisis triggered by the uprising – with the warning from the United Nations World Food Program on Tuesday that almost a million people in the north of the country are suffering from severe hunger – the attacks also pose an existential threat to public finances.

“The longer the conflict pushes back the completion of the planned LNG projects, the longer it will take for the indebted Mozambican government to generate income from gas exports,” said Gerrit van Rooyen, economist at NKC African Economics.

Total has now moved all staff from its Afungi location, but van Rooyen suggested that this could be a tactic to pressure the government to improve security around the Afungi complex and accept foreign aid instead of one accept permanent exit. Total declined to comment when contacted by CNBC.

President Filipe Nyusi’s government has relied primarily on private security companies to support defense efforts while restricting access to aid workers and journalists.

In addition to Total’s LNG project, both the US energy company ExxonMobil and the Italian energy supplier Eni are carrying out separate energy projects in the country, all of which are of crucial importance for the future of Mozambique’s taxation.

The delayed start of LNG exports is likely to reduce government revenues noticeably.

Mozambican soldiers leave the tarmac of the airport in Pemba on March 31, 2021. – Sporadic clashes broke out in Palma on Tuesday as thousands of residents hid in the besieged city in northern Mozambique to escape the area overrun by militant jihadists, agencies said.

AFP via Getty Images

The Mozambican Ministry of the Economy and Finance estimated in 2018 that a 20% cost overrun and 18 month delay in two key areas of LNG projects would reduce government revenues by around 6% – nearly USD 2.5 billion – over a 25-year period. could lower.

“The longer it takes for LNG projects to reap benefits, the longer the government will have to draw on other resources and international aid to finance the country’s economic development and service its external debt,” said van Rooyen.

NKC estimates that external debt was $ 11.8 billion, or nearly 87% of GDP, at the end of 2020, with the government spending more than 13% of total revenue on interest payments over the course of the year.

The LNG projects should push growth back to over 5% per year, said van Rooyen, which – if everything goes according to plan – should help steer the country’s mountain of debt to a more sustainable level.

“Safety vacuum”

Mozambican security forces as well as private military contractors and Total’s security team were blind from last month’s raid on Al-Shabab. The ensuing struggle lasted about 12 days and counterinsurgency operations continue.

The South African 16-nation development community held an emergency meeting last week condemning the violence and promising an “appropriate regional response”.

Risk advisory agency Pangea-Risk said in a research report last week that the attack was not triggered by Total’s announcement that it would resume operations. Instead, it was said that the move took place after months of preparatory planning by militants who have been increasingly active in the region since 2017.

Pangea risk first warned in October 2020 and again on March 12, two weeks before the attack, that insurgents were planning attacks in natural gas hub cities.

Pemba, MOZAMBIQUE – The OCSV Sapura Diamante (Offshore Construction Support Vessel), a pipe-layer ship used in offshore construction, is docked in the port of Pemba, where sailboats with people displaced from the coasts of Palma and Afungi are awaited attacked by armed groups on March 30, 2021.

Alfredo Zuniga / AFP via Getty Images

“There will be a security vacuum in Cabo Delgado next month, if not longer, exposing both Palma and other places in the province to further militant attacks,” said Robert Besseling, CEO of Pangea-Risk.

According to Besseling, local sources expect a raid on the resettlement village of Quitunda near the LNG site on the Afungi peninsula in the coming weeks.

“Such a raid would put pressure on the Afungi garrison to leave the security zone around the LNG site and to use it to protect vulnerable displaced persons in Quitunda, which may violate the Mozambican government’s security treaty with Total, ” he added.

Besseling suggested that the provincial capital Pemba and the Tanzanian port city and gas center in Mtwara in the Rovuma border region between the two countries will be “very ambitious targets” for the insurgents.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in Cabo Delgado is expected to worsen in the coming weeks as refugees continue to flee Palma for camps in nearby districts. The total number of displaced people is estimated at over 700,000 and is increasing.

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European Union Guarantees Additional Covid-19 Vaccine Doses From Pfizer

European Union Promises Extra Covid-19 Vaccine Doses From Pfizer

The European Union will receive an additional 50 million doses of the coronavirus vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech this month, accelerating its efforts to accelerate vaccination amid difficulties with vaccines developed by AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson.

The announcement by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, is part of the European Union’s tough pivot for mRNA vaccines like Pfizer, which is basing its future coronavirus response on it.

The measures come a day after Johnson & Johnson suspended rollout of its vaccine in the European Union and the block continued to suffer from the restrictions of the AstraZeneca vaccine after reports of extremely rare but serious potential side effects from both.

The 27-nation bloc has also started negotiations with Pfizer for the delivery of 1.8 billion new doses of vaccine – including booster shots to extend immunity and new vaccines to combat emerging variants – in 2022 and 2023, Ms. von der Leyen said .

In another setback for AstraZeneca, Denmark became the first country to permanently stop administering the company’s vaccine on Wednesday. The potential side effects are significant enough to do so, given that the pandemic was under control and two other vaccines could be used. from Pfizer and Moderna.

The European Union has not canceled its existing orders for the AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines, but has signaled that they will no longer be placing.

The European Medicines Agency, the bloc’s top medicine agency, goes on to say that the benefits of the AstraZeneca vaccine far outweigh the risks of a dangerous but extremely rare blood disorder for most people. On Wednesday, the agency said it was accelerating its investigation of “very rare cases of unusual blood clots” in recipients of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine and is expected to issue a recommendation next week.

During the ongoing evaluation, the Agency reiterated its view that it will reap the benefits Vaccine also outweigh the risks.

The European Union’s move away from AstraZeneca follows troubled months as relations between the company and the bloc deteriorated due to late deliveries and unpredictable deliveries. And since then, concerns about possible side effects have heightened skepticism about vaccines, which was already dangerously high in Europe.

These problems have contributed to the fact that Europe has lagged seriously behind vaccination campaigns in the US and UK. The block hopes the new Pfizer broadcasts will help it catch up and meet its goal of fully vaccinating 70 percent of its adult population, roughly 255 million people, by the end of the summer.

Pfizer’s commitment to move ahead with deliveries of the 50 million cans originally planned for the end of the year means the company will deliver a total of 250 million cans to the block by the end of June.

“We now have to concentrate on technologies that have proven themselves: mRNA vaccines are a clear example of this,” said Ms. von der Leyen.

Monika Pronczuk contributed to the reporting.