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Taxes and inflation might be key themes for markets within the week forward

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Source: NYSE

The last week of April will be a busy one for the markets with a Federal Reserve meeting and a barrage of earnings news.

Inflation and taxes will continue to be hot topics in the markets.

President Joe Biden is expected to detail his American Families Plan and the tax increases to be paid for it, including a much higher capital gains tax for the wealthy. The plan is the second part of its Better Back Down agenda and will include new spending proposals designed to help families. The President addresses a joint session of Congress on Wednesday evening.

With around a third of the S&P 500 reports including big tech names like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, this is a big week of earnings.

As many have already done, companies like Boeing, Ford, Caterpillar, and McDonald’s are likely to describe the cost pressures they face from rising material and transportation costs and supply chain disruptions.

At the same time, the Fed is expected to defend its policy of allowing inflation to run hot while reassuring markets that it sees the rise in prices as temporary. The central bank meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The central bank takes over the main stage

“I think the Fed doesn’t want to be a feature next week, but the Fed is being pushed into the background due to inflation concerns,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.

The central bank is not expected to take any political action, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference after Wednesday’s meeting is being closely watched.

So far, the flood of profit news has been positive: 86% of companies reported winning hits. According to Refinitiv, net income is projected to grow around 33.9% in the first quarter based on estimates and actual reports. Sales are 9.9% higher.

There is important inflation data on Friday when the Fed’s preferred inflation meter is reported.

The personal consumption expenditure report is expected to show core inflation to rise 1.8%, still below the Fed’s 2% target. Further data releases concern first-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday, which, according to the Dow Jones, is expected to have grown by 6.5%.

“I don’t think the Fed has any urgency to change monetary policy right now,” said Ian Lyngen, head of US interest rate strategy at BMO. “The Fed has to acknowledge that the data is improving. We had a strong first quarter.”

“The Fed needs to acknowledge this, but at the same time maintain its highly accommodative policy, so it needs to acknowledge the fact that the simple policy is justified,” he said.

Lyngen said the Fed is likely to point out ongoing concerns about the pandemic around the world as a potential risk to economic recovery.

Powell is also expected to reiterate that the Fed will let inflation rise above its 2% target for a period of time before raising rates to give the economy more time to heal. “It’s going to be a challenge for the Fed,” said Swonk.

The base effects for the next few months cause inflation to rise sharply on the basis of a comparison with a weak period last year. The consumer price index for April could be above 3%, compared to 2.6% last month, added Swonk.

“The Fed is trying to get a lot more people on the dance floor before shouting ‘last call’,” she said. “Really, what Powell has been saying since day one is if we take care of people on the fringes and get them back into work, the rest will take care of themselves.”

Stocks were slightly lower over the past week and government bond yields remained at lower levels. The 10-year return, moving against price, was 1.55% on Friday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.1% to end the week at 4,180 while the Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 0.3% to 14,016. The Dow was just under 0.5% at 34,043.

Outlook for tax hikes

Stocks were hit hard on Thursday when Biden suggested a capital gains tax rate of 39.6% for people who earn more than $ 1 million a year, according to news.

Combined with the 3.8% net investment tax, the new levy would more than double the long-term capital gains rate of 20% or the richest Americans.

Strategists said Biden is expected to propose raising the income tax rate for those who earn more than $ 400,000.

“I think a lot of people are starting to assess the risk that both corporate and capital gains taxes will rise significantly,” said Lyngen.

So far, companies haven’t contributed much to the proposed increase in corporate taxes from 21% to 28%, but they have talked about other costs.

David Bianco, Chief Investment Strategist for America at DWS, expects larger companies to deal better with supply chain constraints than smaller ones. Big Tech is also likely to outperform automakers who have already announced production shutdowns during the semiconductor shortage, he said.

“Next week is tech week. I think we’re going to get on our knees and just be in awe of their business models and their ability to grow on a gigantic scale,” said Bianco.

He said he was not in favor of Wall Street popular trading in cyclicals and out of growth. He still prefers growth.

“We are really overweight because we are concerned about rising interest rates,” said Bianco. “I’m not optimistic that I expect the market to grow that much from here.”

“We have continued to grow and looked deeper into bond replacements, utilities, food staples and real estate,” he said, adding that he is underweight industrials, energy and materials. “Energy is doomed. It will be nationalized through regulation. I like industrial companies, they are well-run companies, but I think the expectations of infrastructure spending for traditional infrastructures are too high.”

He also said industrials are good companies, but stocks are overvalued.

Bianco said he likes big stores, but smaller retailers face huge challenges that affected them even before Covid. He also finds small biotech companies attractive.

“I like health care stocks. These ratings are reasonable. People have been paranoid about politicians beating them since 1992. They make it and lately they are delivering,” he said.

Calendar for the week ahead

Monday

Merits: Tesla, Canadian National Railways, Canon, Check Point Software, Otis Worldwide, Vale, Ameriprise, NXP Semiconductor, Albertsons, Royal Phillips

8:30 a.m. consumer goods

Tuesday

The FOMC begins a two day meeting

Merits: Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Amgen, Advanced Micro Devices, 3M, General Electric, Eli Lilly, Hasbro, United Parcel Service, BP, Novartis, JetBlue, Pultegroup, Archer Daniels Midland, Waste Management, Starbucks, Texas Instrument, Chubb, Mondelez, FireEye, Corning, Raytheon

9:00 a.m. S & P / Case-Shiller

9:00 a.m. FHFA real estate prices

10:00 am Consumer Confidence

10:00 a.m. vacant apartments

Wednesday

Merits: Apple, Boeing, Facebook, Qualcomm, Ford, MGM Resorts, Humana, Norfolk Southern, General Dynamics, Boston Scientific, eBay, Samsung Electronics, GlaxoSmithKline, Yum Brands, SiriusXM, Aflac, Cheesecake Factory, Community Health System, CIT Group, Entergy, CME Group, Hess, Ryder System

8:30 a.m. leading indicators

2 p.m. Fed statement

2:30 p.m. Briefing from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell

Thursday

Merits: Amazon, Caterpillar, McDonald’s, Twitter, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Comcast, Merck, Northrop Grumman, Airbus, Kraft Heinz, Intercontinental Exchange, Mastercard, Gilead Sciences, US-Stahl, Cirrus Logic, Texas Roadhouse, Cabot Oil, PG & E, Royal Dutch Shell, Church & Dwight, Carlyle Group, Southern Co.

8:30 am Initial jobless claims

8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q1

10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

Friday

Merits: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, AstraZeneca, Clorox, Barclays, AbbVie, BNP Paribas, Weyerhaeuser, Illinois Tool Works, CBOE Global Markets, Lazard, Newell Brands, Aon, LyondellBasell, Pitney Bowes, Phillips 66, Charter Communications

8:30 am Personal Income and Expenses

8:30 a.m. Employment Cost Index Q1

9:45 am Chicago PMI

10:00 am consumer mood

Saturday

Merits: Berkshire Hathaway

Categories
World News

J.&.J. Vaccine Will Be Out there Once more Quickly

Until a few hours before the break was recommended by American officials, regulators had planned a revision of the FDA’s emergency approval, similar to the one formalized on Friday, with warnings about the blood clots.

However, in a meeting on April 12, senior health officials decided that the government should take a break while federal agencies and the CDC panel of experts investigated a possible link between the blood clots and the vaccine. They feared a number of cases of the disorder had not been identified and wanted to give those who had just received the vaccine more time to get to the point where infrequent clotting typically occurs.

“As we have done this intense scientific evaluation over the past few days, I think we have become more and more confident about the decision that was made today,” said Dr Janet Woodcock, acting FDA commissioner, on Friday.

In the CDC panel analysis, women between 30 and 39 appear to be at greatest risk with 11.8 cases per million doses. In women between 18 and 49 there were seven cases per million doses. The condition the CDC calls thrombosis with thrombocytopenic syndrome causes severe blood clots and a tendency to bleed due to abnormally low levels of platelets, a component of blood that is involved in clotting.

The disorder is “rare but clinically severe,” said Dr. Tom Shimabukuro, Assistant Director of the CDC Vaccination Safety Office, at the meeting.

Other potential cases, including some in men, are currently being investigated. There was also a case in a 25-year-old man who was in a clinical trial of the vaccine.

Patients’ symptoms closely resemble a rare syndrome that can be caused by heparin, a widely used blood thinner, said Dr. Michael Streiff, a hematologist at Johns Hopkins University, joined the panel. Heparin, which is normally used to treat blood clots, shouldn’t be given to these patients, he said.

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S&P 500 rebounds greater than 1%, ends the risky week flat

US stocks rebounded on Friday as Wall Street reevaluated concerns raised by news that the White House might seek a capital gains tax hike.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 227.59 points, or 0.7%, to 34,043.49 as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan stocks rose 227.59 points, or 0.7%. The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 4,180.17, led by Financials and Materials, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1.4% to 14,016.81.

The S&P 500 ended a turbulent week down just 0.1%, while the Dow and Nasdaq fell 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, over the course of the week.

Wall Street had a tumultuous meeting for stocks after several news outlets reported Thursday afternoon that President Joe Biden is expected to propose much higher capital gains taxes for the rich.

Bloomberg News reported that Biden plans to increase capital gains tax up to 43.4% for wealthy Americans.

The proposal would increase the capital gains rate for those earning $ 1 million or more from the current 20% to 39.6%, Bloomberg News said, citing people familiar with the matter. Reuters and the New York Times later also reported similar stories.

However, given tight Democratic majority control in Congress, such tax legislation could face challenges, and many on Wall Street believe a less dramatic increase is more likely.

“We expect Congress to pass a scaled-down version of this tax hike,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note. “We expect Congress to agree on a more modest increase, possibly 28%.”

Meanwhile, US taxable domestic investors own only about 25% of the US stock market, according to UBS. The rest of the market is in accounts that are not subject to capital gains tax, such as B. Retirement accounts, foundations and foreign investors. Therefore, even with a higher tax rate, the impact on overall stock prices should be limited.

“We would expect opportunistic investors who are not affected by this proposal to step in and benefit from lower prices,” said UBS strategists in a statement on Friday.

Intel stock fell more than 5% after it released an earnings forecast in the second quarter that fell below analysts’ hopes. American Express fell over 4% after the credit card company reported quarterly revenue that fell slightly short of forecast.

Snap stock, meanwhile, rose 7.5% after the company posted accelerated revenue growth and strong user numbers in the first quarter. Snap broke even on balance with sales of $ 770 million.

Companies so far have largely managed to beat Wall Street’s predictions for the earnings season. Even so, strong first quarter results have been met with a tepid reaction from investors who have not yet bought shares in companies with some of the best performing.

Strategists say that already high ratings and near record highs for the S&P 500 and Dow have kept traders’ excitement in check. However, the indices are within 1% of their all-time high.

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Extra Than 100 Migrants Are Feared Lifeless as Boat Capsizes in Mediterranean

CAIRO – More than 100 migrants traveling to Europe are feared dead in a shipwreck off Libya, according to independent rescue groups.

The Libyan Coast Guard searched for the boat but could not find it due to limited resources, a service official said.

The humanitarian group SOS Méditerranée, which operates the rescue ship Ocean Viking, announced late Thursday that the capsized rubber boat, which originally carried around 130 people, had been sighted in the Mediterranean northeast of the Libyan capital Tripoli. The ship did not find any survivors, but the helpers were able to see at least 10 bodies near the wreck.

“We think of the life that has been lost and the families who may never be sure what happened to their loved ones,” the group said in a statement.

Migrant traffic has raised questions in the countries of the European Union and in Libya as to who is responsible for rescuing those at risk at sea.

SOS Méditerranée said the missing were expected to have died, adding to the 350 people who have drowned in the sea so far this year. She accused the governments of failing to conduct search and rescue operations.

In the years since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising, in which longtime Libyan leader Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi was overthrown and killed, the war-torn country has become the dominant transit point for migrants escaping war and poverty in Africa and flee in the Middle East. Smugglers often pack desperate families on poorly equipped rubber boats that stop and sink on the dangerous Mediterranean route.

Eugenio Ambrosi, chief of staff of the International Organization for Migration, said in a tweet: “These are the human consequences of policies that fail to respect international law and the most basic humanitarian requirements.”

AlarmPhone, which provides a crisis hotline for migrants in need in the Mediterranean, said it had close contact with the distressed boat for almost 10 hours before it capsized.

A Libyan Coast Guard spokesman, Cmdr. Masoud Ibrahim Masoud said the service searched the sea for more than 24 hours, adding, “The waves were very rough.”

Mr Masoud said the Coast Guard received rescue alerts around noon on Wednesday from two different rubber boats in distress east of Tripoli. A patrol ship was dispatched immediately and rescued 106 migrants, including women and children, who had been on board one of the two boats.

Two bodies were also pulled out of the water near the capsized vessel. He said the coast guard ship finally returned to port so that rescued migrants could receive medical assistance.

In the meantime, the Libyan authorities have asked three merchant ships and the Ocean Viking to search for the other missing boat until the Libyan patrol ship can join them again.

In recent years the European Union has teamed up with the Libyan Coast Guard and other local groups to contain such dangerous crossings. However, right-wing groups say these guidelines are at the mercy of migrants to armed groups or imprisoned in miserable prisons where abuse occurs.

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Skilled calls on China, Japan to finish financing of abroad coal vegetation

Rich countries like China and Japan must stop funding coal-fired power plants in poorer countries in the fight against climate change, according to Rachel Kyte, who previously served as the UN Secretary-General’s special envoy and Sustainable Energy’s chief executive officer for All.

Kyte, who is now the dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University, said that “coal has no place in the race for zero carbon emissions by 2050”.

“We need those countries that have coal to manage their own energy transition. And we have to stop funding coal in countries, especially in low-income countries,” she told CNBC’s Street Signs Asia on Friday.

Kyte’s comments come after South Korea’s President Moon Jae announced at a climate summit convened by US President Joe Biden Thursday that the country would stop all new overseas coal-fired power plant financing.

“To become climate neutral, it is imperative for the world to downsize coal-fired power plants,” said Moon, adding that developing countries facing challenges due to their reliance on coal should be given due consideration and access to adequate support. “”

Kyte marked South Korea’s step in the right direction and urged China and Japan to do the same.

“That is good with Korea’s announcement that it will stop overseas funding,” she noted. “That leaves Japan and China, as the two countries are still saying they will fund coal overseas. It will take us this year for both of them to find a way to get out of this commitment.”

Both China and Japan are heavy coal consumers and have been criticized by environmental groups for failing to take stronger steps to end their reliance on coal and other fossil fuels.

Even if the US and Europe make significant commitments to reduce their carbon emissions, according to Kyte, western countries still lack efforts to help less developed countries make their transition from coal.

“Also important is that the rest of the world has some kind of big deal on the table to help countries that may have been coal-fired in the past transform renewable and green energy,” said Kyte.

“We haven’t fully seen these types of financial commitments at this summit, so there is a lot to be done at the G-7 in the UK and the G-20 in Italy later this year,” she added.

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Covid-19 Dwell Updates: Vaccines, Variants and Instances

Here’s what you need to know:

Credit…Joao Silva/The New York Times

South Africa will resume the use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to inoculate health care workers next week, offering some relief to the country that has suffered a series of blows to its vaccination efforts in recent months, according to South African authorities.

The country suspended an early-access Johnson & Johnson vaccination program last week after health officials in the United States put a pause on the vaccine amid concerns of rare blood clots that emerged in a handful of people who received it.

South Africa’s decision to move forward again was the second green light this week for Johnson & Johnson. On Tuesday, the European Union drug regulator also recommended resuming the rollout of the company’s vaccine.

Now, many eyes are on Washington, where a federal advisory panel is scheduled to meet Friday to discuss whether to lift the pause in the United States.

The blood clots that led to the Johnson & Johnson suspensions were all reported in the United States. In South Africa, officials confirmed Thursday that no cases of clots have been reported among the roughly 290,000 health care workers who have received the vaccine so far.

“The temporary suspension in South Africa was in line with government’s commitment to ensure comprehensive measures are undertaken regarding vaccine rollout,” Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, a cabinet minister, told reporters on Thursday.

Health experts welcomed the resumption of the vaccine campaign in South Africa, which has recorded more coronavirus cases than any other country on the continent and has suffered serious setbacks in its attempt to combat the virus in recent months.

In February, health officials scrapped plans to use the AstraZeneca vaccine after it proved ineffective against a variant of the virus now dominant in South Africa. The decision came a week after a million doses of the vaccine arrived in the country and amid a devastating second wave of virus cases.

Though the Johnson & Johnson vaccine has not yet been approved for general use in South Africa, it has been used as part of a research study offering early access to the vaccine to the country’s 1.2 million health care workers.

South African health officials are gearing up to extend vaccinations to the general public starting in May. In a first step to launching a national rollout, the country last week opened its vaccine registration to people over 60 years old, who will be among the first to be inoculated.

That plan depends on tens of millions of doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, which requires two doses and will be used in major cities. The single-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which is easier to store and better for hard-to-reach populations, will be used in the country’s rural areas.

United States › United StatesOn Apr. 21 14-day change
New cases 64,853 –4%
New deaths 879 –1%
World › WorldOn Apr. 21 14-day change
New cases 952,928 +23%
New deaths 17,951 +14%

U.S. vaccinations ›

Where states are reporting vaccines given

People waiting in line to register for a vaccination in Brooklyn earlier this month.Credit…Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Federal health officials appear to be leaning toward lifting their recommended pause on the use of Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vaccine after finding only a limited number of additional cases of a rare blood clotting disorder among recipients.

Instead, the Food and Drug Administration is likely to attach a warning to the vaccine’s label to inform health practitioners — and the public — about the exceedingly uncommon, but dangerous possible side effect.

Federal health officials are waiting to act until they hear from a committee of outside experts who advise the C.D.C. The committee is scheduled to meet on Friday to discuss whether to recommend lifting, extending or modifying the pause that was initiated on April 13.

“We know that it’s not a good thing to leave the pause going for any longer than it absolutely has to go for,” Dr. Peter Marks, the Food and Drug Administration’s top vaccine regulator, said Thursday, adding that a protracted pause could contribute to greater vaccine hesitancy. “Once, essentially, the adequate discussion has occurred, we’re prepared to move as quickly as we possibly can.”

When top federal health officials abruptly decided early last week to recommend a temporary halt in the use of the shot, six women had been reported to have suffered from the disorder, a combination of clots in the brain that led to bleeding and low platelets, components of the blood that normally help to heal wounds.

That was fewer than one in a million recipients of Johnson & Johnson’s shot in the United States. But officials worried that more cases were hidden or could develop shortly as the new vaccine rolled out.

That fear has not materialized.

Dr. Marks and Dr. Janet Woodcock, the F.D.A.’s acting commissioner, said the clotting disorder appeared to be nearly as rare as they hoped it would be when they recommended the pause.

“We’ve now received more cases, but it isn’t an avalanche,” Dr. Woodcock said “We’re not seeing a big surge, which is a great relief.”

Even if the C.D.C.’s advisory committee decides Friday that the benefits of Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose vaccine outweigh its risks, the company will still face manufacturing hurdles at a Baltimore plant that regulators have refused so far to certify. That plant was supposed to deliver the bulk of the nearly 100 million doses the firm had promised to have ready by the end of May.

But it would mean a temporary surge of about 10 million shots that were effectively put on hold when the pause was announced.

A man who died of complications from the coronavirus was being cremated in Mumbai on Wednesday.Credit…Atul Loke for The New York Times

India’s rapidly worsening coronavirus outbreak is now expanding on a scale beyond any previously measured in more than a year of the pandemic: The health ministry reported more than 310,000 new infections on Thursday, the most recorded in any country on a single day.

India’s total eclipsed the previous one-day high of 300,669 recorded coronavirus cases, set in the United States on Jan. 8, according to a New York Times database, though differences in testing levels from country to country, and a widespread lack of tests early in the pandemic, make comparisons difficult.

Over the past two months, the outbreak in India has exploded, with reports of superspreader gatherings, oxygen shortages and ambulances lined up outside hospitals because there were no ventilators for new patients.

As cases worldwide reach weekly records, a substantial proportion of the new infections are coming in India, a sobering reminder that the pandemic is far from over, even as infections decline and vaccinations speed ahead in the United States and other wealthy parts of the world. India has surpassed 15.6 million total reported infections so far, second-most after the United States.

The death toll has also begun to climb precipitously.

On Thursday, the Indian government recorded 2,104 deaths, and an average of more than 1,600 people have died of the virus every day for the past week. That is less than the tolls at the worst points of the pandemic in the United States or Brazil, but it is a steep increase from just two months ago, when fewer than 100 people in India were dying daily.

There are signs that the country’s health system, patchy even before the pandemic, is collapsing under the strain. On Tuesday, at least 22 people died in an accident in the central city of Nashik when a leak in a hospital’s main oxygen tank cut the flow of oxygen to Covid-19 patients.

The picture is staggeringly different from early February, when India was recording an average of just 11,000 cases a day, and domestic drug companies were pumping out millions of vaccine doses. More than 132 million Indians have received at least one dose, but supplies are running low and experts warn that the country is unlikely to meet its goal of inoculating 300 million people by the summer.

Critics say Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who imposed a harsh nationwide lockdown in March 2020 in the early stages of the pandemic, failed to prepare for a second wave or to warn Indians to remain vigilant against the virus, especially as more infectious variants began to spread.

Mr. Modi’s Hindu nationalist government has also allowed a massive Hindu festival to take place, drawing millions of pilgrims to the banks of the Ganges River, and his party has held packed political rallies in several states.

“India’s rapid slide into this unprecedented crisis is a direct result of complacency and lack of preparation by the government,” Ramanan Laxminarayan, the director of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy in Washington, wrote in The New York Times on Tuesday.

The hardest-hit region is Maharashtra, a populous western state that includes the financial hub of Mumbai. On Wednesday, the state’s top leader ordered government offices to operate at 15 percent capacity and imposed new restrictions on weddings and private transportation to slow the spread of the virus.

This week, Britain’s prime minister, Boris Johnson, and Japan’s prime minister, Yoshihide Suga, called off plans to visit India. On Thursday, the Australian prime minister, Scott Morrison, said that direct flights from India would be reduced by about 30 percent, and that Australians would be allowed to travel to India only in “very urgent circumstances.” Canada also suspended all direct flights from India and Pakistan starting Thursday night for 30 days.

People relaxed in the Place des Vosges in central Paris on Saturday. Prime Minister Jean Castex said that France will relax many of its coronavirus restrictions in May. Credit…Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York Times

The French government outlined plans on Thursday to gradually reopen the country starting in early May, stoking hopes that life might finally return to something close to normal after more than a year of on-and-off pandemic restrictions.

Prime Minister Jean Castex said at a news conference that primary school students would be allowed to return to classrooms on Monday, followed by middle and high school students the following week. Travel restrictions will be lifted on May 3.

Depending on how things are going at that point, Mr. Castex said, retail stores, outdoor dining, and certain cultural and sporting activities could start to reopen in mid-May.

The pandemic situation appears to be improving in France, with the daily average number of new cases falling to about 32,000 from 42,000 the week before. Hospitalizations seem to have plateaued at nearly 6,000.

“The peak of the third wave seems to be behind us,” Mr. Castex said.

The government is hoping to alleviate the deep sense of pandemic fatigue that has taken root in France. When the country went into its third lockdown at the start of April, once again closing schools and “nonessential” retail stores, the move was met with anger and some pointed protests.

Hundreds of lingerie shops across France, closed under the lockdown order, have been mailing panties to Mr. Castex since the beginning of the week, as part of a campaign called “Action Culottée,” meaning “cheeky action,” which was coordinated on Facebook.

The country’s vaccination campaign, which stumbled for months, has gathered speed recently, and is now administering about 2.5 million doses a week. More than 13 million people have received at least one dose so far, and the country aims to raise the figure to 20 million — 30 percent of the population — by mid-May. Even so, France lags far behind countries like the United States, Britain and Israel in its vaccination efforts.

To limit the spread of highly transmissible virus variants, Mr. Castex said, France will tighten testing and quarantine requirements for travelers arriving from five countries — Brazil, Chile, Argentina, South Africa and India — where the variants are circulating widely.

The Atlantic City boardwalk last July.Credit…Michelle Gustafson for The New York Times

With summer on the horizon, states are beginning to rethink social-distancing measures.

In Rhode Island, Gov. Dan McKee said that starting May 7, the state will stop requiring masks outside, and social gatherings can increase to 25 people indoors and 75 people outdoors. By May 28, the state will lift capacity limits on businesses and houses of worship; the bar areas of restaurants will be able to open; and dance floors can once again be filled.

“It’s a good day for everyone here in the Ocean State,” Mr. McKee said at a news conference Thursday. “It’s a little early to put a ‘Mission Accomplished’ sign up but we’re getting ready to order that sign.”

Mr. McKee attributed the reopening plans to the state’s vaccination rate — 48 percent of residents have received at least one shot and 33 percent are fully vaccinated, according to a New York Times database. But masks will still be required indoors.

Rhode Island is not alone.

On Monday, Gov. Ned Lamont of Connecticut announced that his state would phase out all pandemic restrictions, except the indoor mask mandate, by May 19. And in New Jersey, Gov. Phil Murphy said Wednesday that he would announce “a pretty significant amount of guidance” for summer activities next week.

“We don’t want to lurch, in other words go forward and then have to pull something back,” Mr. Murphy said at his weekly news conference. “And we don’t want to start that now. But we also owe people our best guesses for what it’s going to look like for graduation, summer, the beaches and what not.”

As more people get vaccinated and the outdoors become more appealing with spring weather and sunshine, one question persists: Do we still need to wear masks outside? Science shows that the risk of viral transmission outside is very low. The Times’ Well columnist, Tara Parker-Pope, suggests making sure your activity meets two out of the following three conditions: outdoors, distanced and masked.

Global Roundup

Police officers stood guard in Berlin as Germans demonstrated against coronavirus measures on Wednesday.Credit…Christian Mang/Reuters

BERLIN — State lawmakers in Germany approved a new version of a law on Thursday boosting the federal government’s power to enforce uniform coronavirus lockdown rules. New restrictions are expected in most districts soon after the president signs the bill into law, which could be as early as Thursday afternoon.

The law, which Chancellor Angela Merkel’s cabinet passed last week, is a response to a disjointed virus response by state governments, which previously had the ultimate say in carrying out restrictions. For months, experts have called for a lockdown to control Germany’s surging third wave of coronavirus infections.

Under the law passed by the federal council of states on Thursday, the rules would apply uniformly across the country but would depend on the rate of infection in each district, leading to more severe lockdowns in highly affected areas. There would be a curfew from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. in districts with more than 100 new infections per 100,000 people in a week. Restaurants would remain closed, and nonessential stores would require an appointment and a negative test result in districts with more than 150 new infections per 100,000 people. Schools would close if 165 new infections per 100,000 were registered.

Germany is currently measuring 161 infections per 100,000 in a week, according to the health authorities, which also counted 29,518 new infections on Wednesday.

As many as 8,000 people, including right-wing extremists and coronavirus deniers, took to the streets in Berlin to protest the measures on Wednesday. Several lawsuits against it have already been announced.

Germany has recorded more than 80,000 deaths so far.

In other developments across the world:

  • Japan’s auto industry group canceled the biennial Tokyo Motor Show, scheduled for the fall, because of rising coronavirus cases, the Kyodo News agency reported. It was the first cancellation in the 67-year history of the event, which drew around 1.3 million people in 2019. Akio Toyoda, the chairman of the industry group and president of Toyota Motor Corp., said at a news conference that “it seems difficult to offer main programs in a safe environment.” The cancellation came as Japan reported 5,291 new infections, the highest daily total in three months. And it raised more questions about plans for the Tokyo Olympics, which organizers have insisted will begin in July even as officials plan to impose emergency measures in Tokyo and other municipalities.

  • The European Union will not order an extra 100 million vaccines from AstraZeneca foreseen in its contract, a European Commission spokesman said Thursday, underscoring the soured relationship between the pharmaceutical company and the bloc of 27 countries. The bloc could have added 100 million doses of vaccines to its existing order of 300 million from AstraZeneca but the time to do so has passed, Stefan de Keersmaecker, the spokesman, said. The European Union is embroiled in a dispute with the British-Swedish company over its inability to deliver expected doses, which has set the bloc’s vaccination efforts back significantly. They have been in a legal arbitration process for weeks, and the bloc is considering suing.

Megan Fairchild practicing in her parent’s home in Utah.Credit…Kim Raff for The New York Times

At the beginning of the pandemic, one of Megan Fairchild’s former dance teachers gave her some advice: Now would be a really great time to get pregnant. Ms. Fairchild, a principal at New York City Ballet, was aghast.

“I was like, that’s a ridiculous idea and the last thing on my mind right now,” she said. “This is going to last a couple months, and I don’t want to not be there when we get back.”

But when it became clear that her kind of live performance, dancing for thousands at Lincoln Center, would not be resuming anytime soon, the decision to have another child came to her in three words when she was meditating: Do it now.

For much of the pandemic year, Ms. Fairchild, 36, was pregnant with twins. On April 10, she gave birth to two girls.

She’s not the only one to have taken advantage of the theatrical shutdown. The dance world is experiencing a full-blown baby boom.

Federal regulators have found many shortcomings at a plant of Emergent BioSolutions in Baltimore.Credit…Saul Loeb/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

WASHINGTON — Federal regulators have found serious flaws at the Baltimore plant that had to throw out up to 15 million possibly contaminated doses of Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vaccine, casting doubt on further production in the United States of a vaccine that the government once viewed as essential in fighting the pandemic.

The regulators for the Food and Drug Administration said that the company manufacturing the vaccine, Emergent BioSolutions, may have contaminated additional doses at the plant. They said the company failed to fully investigate the contamination, while also finding fault with the plant’s disinfection practices, size and design, handling of raw materials and training of workers.

The F.D.A. has not yet certified the plant, in Baltimore’s Bayview neighborhood, and no doses made there have gone to the public. All the Johnson & Johnson shots that have been administered in the United States have come from overseas.

The report amounted to a harsh rebuke of Emergent, which had long played down setbacks at the factory, and added to problems for Johnson & Johnson, whose vaccine had been seen as a game changer because it requires only one shot, can be produced in mass volume and is easily stored.

The inspection began after routine checks showed that Emergent workers had contaminated at least part of a batch of 13 million to 15 million doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine with the harmless virus that is used to make the AstraZeneca shot, which is not yet authorized in the United States.

The F.D.A. findings, based on an inspection that ended on Tuesday, underscore questions raised in reports by The New York Times about why Emergent did not fix problems earlier and why federal officials who oversee its lucrative contracts did not demand better performance.

In statements on Wednesday, the F.D.A., Emergent and Johnson & Johnson all said they were working to resolve the problems at the factory. There was no indication of how long that would take.

Nepal’s dethroned king, Gyanendra Shah, center, at Golden Temple in Amritsar, India, last year.Credit…Sameer Sehgal/Hindustan Times, via Getty Images

KATHMANDU, Nepal — At the beginning of this month, Nepal’s dethroned king, Gyanendra Shah, and his wife, Komal, traveled to northern India for the Kumbh Mela, a Hindu pilgrimage where millions seek a dip in the Ganges River to absolve themselves of their sins.

Gyanendra bathed in the river, and for 10 days, he and his aides mingled in crowds and met ascetics, Hindu leaders and other dignitaries. On April 18, he and Komal flew home to Nepal, where supporters welcomed them at the airport and formed a procession to escort them home, chanting pro-Hindu and pro-monarchy slogans along the way.

Three days later, the couple tested positive for the coronavirus. Now they are in quarantine at their residence in Kathmandu, the capital, while health officials in Nepal try to trace anyone who was in contact with them.

“Both king and queen have isolated themselves from other family members,” said Phani Raj Pathak, an aide to Gyanendra, who was dethroned when Nepal became a republic in 2008 and ended a two-century-old Hindu monarchy. The former ruler, who is in his 70s, retains support among some Hindus in Nepal as well as among critics of the elected government.

The infections have cast a harsh spotlight on the Kumbh Mela, where millions of Hindu pilgrims have gathered for weeks, shoulder to shoulder and often maskless, even as highly infectious variants of the coronavirus surge across South Asia. On Thursday, India reported more than 312,000 new infections, the highest daily total in any country since the pandemic began.

The Indian government has defended the gathering as safe, even as news media report thousands of infections among participants. Organizers say that attendees are required to wear masks and show proof of a negative coronavirus test, but they acknowledge that given the size of the event, many could have flouted the rules.

Now there are fears that the Kumbh Mela will cause the virus to explode in Nepal, which shares a porous border with India.

“The majority of people weren’t wearing face masks,” said Yogini Saritanandi, a pilgrim who returned to Nepal. She said she had seen “nothing other than a sea of humans on the bank of the Ganges.”

She said the authorities in the northern city of Haridwar, where the Kumbh Mela is being observed this year, began to slightly restrict entry after a few ascetics were reportedly infected and after India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, urged organizers to observe social distancing. But it appeared to be too late.

“People got Covid one after another,” said Ms. Saritanandi, 43. “When I saw this, I thought of my 10-year-old son, and I cut my visit short to return to Nepal earlier.”

As Indian states impose new lockdowns, tens of thousands of Nepali migrant workers have returned from India without undergoing coronavirus tests. After reporting no new infections for much of January, Nepal is now averaging more than 1,100 cases a day, according to a New York Times database.

The government has closed schools and colleges in urban areas and tried to speed up vaccinations, with more than 1.7 million people having received at least one shot. But the inoculation drive was slowed after India restricted exports of vaccines to fight the outbreak at home, leaving Nepal to rely on a donation of shots from China.

A man used a self-administered coronavirus test kit in Durham, N.C., in February.Credit…Pete Kiehart for The New York Times

The health effects of Covid-19 not only can stretch for months, but also appear to increase the risk of death and chronic medical conditions even in people who were never sick enough with Covid to be hospitalized, according to a new study published Thursday in the journal Nature.

Researchers looked at medical records of more than 73,000 people across the United States who were infected with the coronavirus between March and November 2020 and did not require hospitalization. In the period from one to six months after becoming infected, those patients were 20 percent more likely to need outpatient medical care, and 60 percent more likely to die, than people who had not contracted the coronavirus.

The Covid survivors experienced a vast array of long-term medical problems that they had never had before — not just lung issues from the respiratory effects of the virus, but symptoms that could affect virtually any organ system or part of the body, from neurological to cardiovascular to gastrointestinal. They were also at greater risk of mental health problems, including anxiety and sleep disorders.

Some of the patients’ post-Covid medical issues — like diabetes, kidney disease and some heart problems — could become chronic conditions that would require treatment for the rest of their lives.

Most of the nearly 32 million people who have contracted the coronavirus in the United States have not needed hospitalization, so the findings may have wide implications. But the study sample and the control group they were compared with may not be very representative of the general public: They were Veterans Health System patients, overwhelmingly men with a median age over 60.

A pregnant woman receiving the Pfizer vaccine in Schwenksville, Pa., in February.Credit…Hannah Beier/Reuters

In an early analysis of coronavirus vaccine safety data, researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have found no evidence that the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines pose serious risks during pregnancy.

The findings are preliminary and cover just the first 11 weeks of the U.S. vaccination program. But the study, which included self-reported data on more than 35,000 people who received one of the vaccines during or shortly before pregnancy, is the largest yet on the safety of the coronavirus vaccines in pregnant people.

During the clinical trials of the vaccines, pregnant women were excluded. That left patients, doctors and experts unsure whether the shots were safe to administer during pregnancy.

“There’s a lot of anxiety about whether it’s safe and whether it would work and what to expect as far as side effects,” said Dr. Stephanie Gaw, a maternal-fetal medicine specialist at the University of California, San Francisco.

The new data, Dr. Gaw said, demonstrate that “a lot of pregnant people are getting the vaccine, there isn’t a significant increase in adverse pregnancy effects at this point, and that side effect profiles are very similar to nonpregnant people.”

“I think that’s all very reassuring,” she said, “and I think it will really help providers and public health officials more strongly recommend getting the vaccine in pregnancy.”

Covid-19 poses serious risks during pregnancy. Pregnant women who develop symptoms of the disease are more likely to become seriously ill, and more likely to die, than nonpregnant women with symptoms.

Because of those risks, the C.D.C. has recommended that coronavirus vaccines be made available to pregnant women, though it also suggests that they consult with their doctors when making a decision about vaccination.

The new study, which was published on Wednesday in The New England Journal of Medicine, is based largely on self-reported data from V-safe, the C.D.C.’s coronavirus vaccine safety monitoring system. Participants in the program use a smartphone app to complete regular surveys about their health, and any side effects they might be experiencing, after receiving a Covid-19 vaccine.

The researchers analyzed the side effects reported by V-safe participants who received either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine between Dec. 14, 2020, and Feb. 28, 2021. They focused on 35,691 participants who said that they had been pregnant when they received the vaccine or became pregnant shortly thereafter.

After vaccination, pregnant participants reported the same general pattern of side effects that nonpregnant ones did, the researchers found: pain at the injection site, fatigue, headaches and muscle pain.

Women who were pregnant were slightly more likely to report injection site pain than women who were not, but less likely to report the other side effects. They were also slightly more likely to report nausea or vomiting after the second dose.

Pregnant V-safe participants were also given an opportunity to enroll in a special registry that tracked pregnancy and infant outcomes.

By the end of February, 827 of those enrolled in the pregnancy registry had completed their pregnancies, 86 percent of which resulted in a live birth. Rates of miscarriage, prematurity, low birth weight and birth defects were consistent with those reported in pregnant women before the pandemic, the researchers report.

“This study is of critical importance to pregnant individuals,” Dr. Michal Elovitz, a maternal-fetal medicine specialist at the University of Pennsylvania, said in an email. “It is very reassuring that there were no reported acute events in pregnant individuals” over the course of the study, she said.

But the report has several limitations and much more research is needed, experts said. Enrollment in the surveillance programs is voluntary and the data are self-reported.

In addition, because the study period encompassed just the first few months of the U.S. vaccination campaign, the vast majority of those enrolled in the pregnancy registry were health care workers. And there is not yet any data on pregnancy outcomes from people who were vaccinated during the first trimester of pregnancy.

“I think we can feel more confident about recommending the vaccine in pregnancy, and especially with pregnant people that are at risk of Covid,” Dr. Gaw said. “But we do need to wait for more data for complete pregnancy outcomes from vaccines early in pregnancy.”

Jackie Robinson Day at Dodger Stadium earlier this month.Credit…Kirby Lee/USA Today Sports, via Reuters

Fully vaccinated baseball fans will be granted their own section at the Los Angeles Dodgers game this weekend against the San Diego Padres.

The set-aside seats, reported by The Los Angeles Times, are part of the many incentives being offered — from doughnuts to beer — to encourage people to get vaccinated against Covid-19. The Miami Heat and the San Francisco Giants have introduced similar sections at their stadiums.

To prove they are fully vaccinated, fans will have to show government-issued I.D. and documentation like a vaccination card, according to the Dodgers’ website. Everyone 16 years and older will have to show proof that at least two weeks have passed since they were fully vaccinated. Fans younger than 16 will be required to show proof of a negative coronavirus test taken within 72 hours before admission.

Face masks will still be required, but social distancing will not. The team said spectators in the sections for the fully vaccinated will be seated directly next to each other.

The game Saturday won’t mark the first time fans have entered Dodger Stadium since the pandemic began. The team’s home opener on April 9 was attended by fans — just not all that many of them. Attendance was capped at around 11,000, about 20 percent of capacity.

In the past week, there has been an average of more than 2,300 daily coronavirus cases in the state, and Los Angeles County has seen an average of 435 daily cases — a 20 percent drop over the past two weeks, according to a New York Times database.

As of Wednesday, more than 40 percent of Californians had received at least one dose of the vaccine, and more than 20 percent had been fully vaccinated.

On April 15, Gov. Gavin Newsom loosened some restrictions in the state, permitting limited outdoor gatherings and live events, depending on a region’s Covid-19 risk level.

A 5K run organized by New York Road Runners in October.Credit…John Minchillo/Associated Press

New York Road Runners, the club that puts on the New York City Marathon, has announced the return of its first regularly scheduled race since the beginning of the pandemic.

On Thursday, the club said that it would hold the annual New York Mini 10K on June 12. The 10-kilometer, women-only race has been held annually since 1972, with the exception of last year.

“This is our first real table setting,” said Kerin Hempel, the organization’s interim chief executive. “It’s starting to feel like ‘OK, we’re back, we’re coming back.’”

This will not be the first race the club has held since the onset of the pandemic.

The organization has held a series of “return to racing” events as pilots starting last fall, allowing very small fields to run with safety protocols in place. Among other measures, the races had temperature checks, staggered starts and different corralling of runners.

Those events, Ms. Hempel said, have given N.Y.R.R. the confidence to move ahead with its first regularly scheduled race since March 2020.

The Mini 10K field will be smaller than in past years, with a cap of 1,200 runners. The race will also have safety protocols, such as requiring runners to mask up at the start and finish. (They will be strongly encouraged to wear masks during the race, too.)

It will be the first time N.Y.R.R. has welcomed elite athletes since the 2019 New York City Marathon, with 25 elite athletes expected at the starting line. The 2019 Mini 10K champion, Sara Hall, will return to defend her title.

The announcement comes as runners look ahead — with cautious optimism — to the return of major road races. Ms. Hempel anticipated the question on the minds of many: What does this mean for the New York City Marathon?

“We’ve been saying the marathon is going to happen,” she said. “It’s more about what it’s going to look like, and how many people we can accommodate on the course.”

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S&P 500 provides up acquire and declines in sudden transfer on Biden capital positive factors tax report

US stocks quickly fell to session lows Thursday after reports that President Joe Biden is expected to propose much higher capital gains taxes for the rich.

The S&P 500 erased previous gains and fell 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 330 points to its daily low, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.8%.

Bloomberg News reported Thursday afternoon that Biden is planning a capital gains tax hike of up to 43.4% for wealthy Americans. The proposal would increase the capital gains rate for those earning $ 1 million or more from the current 20% to 39.6%, Bloomberg News said, citing people familiar with the matter.

“Biden’s proposal effectively doubles the capital income tax rate for $ 1 million income recipients,” said Jack Ablin, founding partner and CIO of Cresset Capital Management. “That’s a significant cost increase for long-term investors. Expect a sale this year if investors think the proposal may become law next year.”

Growth stocks, which could come under selling pressure due to higher capital gains taxes, saw Tesla and Amazon decline on Thursday. The iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF fell 0.5%, more than its counterpart in value.

“The markets are heavily focused on a small number of growth names,” said Mark Yusko, CEO and CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management. “These stocks have made the bulk of the gains over the past few years and many investors have made significant gains at current prices. Fears of a higher capital gain rate could motivate these names to sell and trigger a market correction. So some investors will attempt this one.” To use potential. ” Movement by selling or hedging by short selling. “

Before the news hit, key averages traded a little higher as investors scoured corporate earnings and economic data.

Southwest Airlines’ shares rose 1.7% after the airline announced that vacation bookings would continue to rise and “breakeven” by June. Southwest also posted a less than expected loss in the first quarter.

Dow Inc. fell more than 4% even after the chemical company beat earnings and sales estimates for the first quarter. The stock is still up more than 10% through 2021.

Investors also digested a better than expected weekly jobless claims reading. The Department of Labor said Thursday that initial unemployment insurance claims totaled 547,000, down from the Dow Jones estimate of 603,000.

So far, companies have largely exceeded Wall Street’s expectations this earnings season, but strong first quarter results are not allowing the market to climb higher after record highs rose near multi-year highs.

“The string of strong positive EPS surprises is likely to continue, but the increased valuations are now ubiquitous. Sentiment is overly optimistic. A possible corporate tax change is an overhang,” said Maneesh Deshpande, head of equity derivatives strategy at Barclays in one Note.

Even so, the company raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 4,400, which would translate into a 6% profit from here. Barclays warned that an uptrend beyond target is unlikely.

On Thursday, the Republican Party tabled its counter offer to Biden’s $ 2 trillion infrastructure plan. The senators proposed a $ 568 billion framework that includes funding for bridges, airports, roads and reservoirs. Tax increases are not included.

American Airlines erased previous earnings and went negative even after the company announced that cash flow was positive at the end of the quarter with no debt payments.

Shares rose on Wednesday to see a two-day decline as companies tied to the reopening of the economy led the way up. The Dow and S&P 500 are less than 1% off regaining their record highs last Friday amid ongoing optimism about the pace of the economic recovery.

– CNBC’s Maggie Fitzgerald contributed to the coverage.

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Why Did the Couple Marry four Occasions in 37 Days?

In Taiwan, one of the few places in the world that offers marital leave to couples who go to the altar, a bank clerk married his partner on April 6, 2020.

They were divorced days later on April 16.

Then they married again the next day.

Another divorce and third marriage followed on April 28 and 29.

After a third divorce on May 11th, they were married for the fourth time on May 12th.

It was all a conspiracy to use the self-governing island’s release policy for couples getting married – eight days vacation – the man’s employer, a Taipei bank, said on public records.

The bank declined to approve the man’s request for paid time off beyond the eight days required for his first marriage. This prompted him to file a complaint with the Ministry of Labor for violations of vacation entitlements. The bank was fined $ 700 last October but appealed the fine in February claiming the employee had abused his rights.

After much public debate, Taipei City Labor Department head Chen Hsin-Yu announced last week that the bank’s fine would be lifted. The bank, the man and the woman were not identified (the name of the bank was redacted in public documents). But the couple’s rapid succession of marriages and divorces stunned officials.

“I am stunned,” Taipei Deputy Mayor Huang Shan-shan wrote on Facebook last week. “The law exists for people and not for exploitation, profit or harm. Of course, enforcing the law is important, but not knowing when to be flexible is the real disaster! “She added.

The case has also messed up labor authorities in capital Taipei, raising questions about how easy it is to take advantage of marriage vacation policies. In a statement, Ms. Chen, the labor officer, urged the officers not to lose sight of common sense.

“Although my colleagues had studied the labor laws seriously, they had not made a breakthrough about whether the bank clerk had abused his rights.” Ms. Chen added, “Instead, they dug into the black hole to see if the marriage was real.”

Marital leave was introduced in Taiwan as part of other employment benefits, such as holidays and paid time off for sickness and grief, when the island’s labor laws were introduced in 1984, said Chiou Jiunn-yann, professor of labor law at Taiwan Chinese University of Culture.

“Traditionally, Asian regions have placed great emphasis on families, and since ancient times in China, getting married has been seen as the first step in starting a family,” he said in a telephone interview. He added that traditional wedding customs could be time consuming. “When the Labor Standards Act was drafted,” he said, “this” marital leave “was included.”

The marriage leave set out in Taiwan’s Labor Code is generous compared to the few other jurisdictions around the world that offer such leave. Malta offers two working days. Vietnam allows three days for one’s own marriage and one day for a child’s wedding. In China, the length of the vacation varies depending on the region: most offer at least three days, but Shanxi Province offers 30 days.

Taiwanese marriage leave does not set quotas for those who take it, nor does it limit the frequency with which workers can take leave. Eligibility is simply renewed for each marriage, including those who marry repeatedly. (Compared to marital leave, employees receive five days of parental leave.)

“The worker has the right to leave if he remarries,” said Chen Kun-Hung, the chief labor standards officer in the Taipei City government.

The sentence imposed on the bank was lifted after the case was brought up by local news outlets, which fueled public debate, he added. “The public believed that there were concerns about the abuse of labor rights, and the abuse has not been regulated by law or discussed by the central government to clarify the situation,” he said in a telephone interview on Thursday.

Professor Chiou added that the government should consider appropriate measures to ensure fairness to both employers and employees.

“If there is no plan to solve this, there is no guarantee that there won’t be someone playing this type of game with you 365 days a year,” he said.

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Chinese language electrical automotive makers goal Europe as competitors heats up

Nio plans to begin delivering its ET7 electric sedan from 2022.

Evelyn Cheng | CNBC

SHANGHAI – After the final year of growth in the world’s largest auto market, China’s electric car startups are ramping up their plans to take over Europe.

The Chinese authorities have only begun lifting restrictions on full foreign ownership of local automobile production in the last few years. More than a decade ago, Beijing spent billions of dollars developing its own electric vehicles.

This has helped local players get a head start in making battery powered cars that they are now looking to sell overseas. Goldman Sachs analysts predict that in four years’ time, due to new government guidelines, electric cars will have a larger share of auto sales in Europe and the US than in China, despite the fact that this is the largest market.

The US-listed company Nio has announced that it will enter Europe in the second half of the year. And on Monday, co-founder and president Lihong Qin said the company expected to make an official announcement of such an expansion within a month.

He did not name a specific country and stated that after Europe, Nio still intended to enter the US market.

Amid tensions with the US and attempts to secure an investment deal with Europe, China exported 63,500 all-battery electric vehicles in the first eleven months of last year. This comes from a January report by the China Chamber of Commerce for the Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products. While Saudi Arabia and Egypt were the top travel destinations for Chinese cars overall last year, the report saw significant growth in vehicle exports to the UK, Belgium and Germany.

The US-listed company Xpeng is already testing the waters in Norway, where the start-up delivered 100 units of its G3 electric SUV in December.

Later this year, Xpeng hopes to see how customers in Northern Europe react to its P7 electric sedan, said He Xiaopeng, chairman and CEO. He is recruiting new employees and planning to start a business in the region before venturing into Western and Eastern Europe.

Another Chinese electric car startup, Aiways, said it exported more than 1,000 vehicles to Israel and Europe in the first three months of this year.

“It’s no secret that most Chinese EV startups have global ambitions,” said Tu Le, founder of Beijing-based consulting firm Sino Auto Insights. “This will continue as these companies pursue growth and value and see opportunities because there are no viable electric vehicle products in the region.”

He said that with enough local research, some of the Chinese companies in Europe could thrive.

However, the growth in Chinese electric car sales to Europe remains a tiny part of the market.

China accounted for less than 2% of the EU’s car imports in 2019, and the value of 865 million euros means a year-on-year growth of 79%, according to the Association of European Automobile Manufacturers.

In contrast, EU-owned automakers produced nearly 6 million passenger cars in China in 2018, accounting for nearly a quarter of total Chinese automobile production, the association said.

Increasing competition in China

The overseas Chinese startup company comes in when the home market warms up. Nios Qin said the entry of tech companies like Apple and Huawei into the industry creates fierce competition for the automaker.

Tesla is the market leader in the automotive sector and is expanding local production. According to the China Passenger Car Association, the Model 3 was the top-selling electric car in China last year.

With the exception of two mini-electric cars, the association said the next best vehicle in this category would be Aion’s S model, a new energy brand that was spun off from Chinese state-owned automaker GAC. A more expensive model from Nio took ninth place, while Xpeng did not make the top ten list.

“Chinese consumers are increasingly understanding new energy vehicles,” said Qiu Liangping, Aion’s planning director, according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks. In addition to making battery charging easier, Chinese buyers are looking for a better driving experience than fossil-fuel cars with internet-enabled features.

The brand also has its eye on the international market, said Qiu. Prior to the spin-off, Aion and GAC’s Trumpchi brand were already selling cars in Israel, the Middle East and South America.

As the automotive industry continues to move into the electrical space, traditional US and German auto companies are launching their own electric vehicles – many in the Chinese market first.

For example, General Motors’ Cadillac brand presented its Lyriq electric car at the Shanghai Auto Show. According to the company, pre-orders in China will start later this year.

Ford also used the show to unveil its locally made version of the Mustang Mach-e electric car, as well as an Evos SUV developed largely in China that will only be available in the country.

Volkswagen unveiled a third electric car for China, the ID.6, in Shanghai. The German automaker aims to have at least 70% of its cars sold in Europe and at least 50% in North America and China by 2030.

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Putin, Navalny Protests Information: Dwell Updates

Here’s what you need to know:

VideoPresident Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said in an address on Wednesday that the country’s response would be “asymmetrical, quick and tough” against nations that threatened its security interests.CreditCredit…Photo by Alexander Nemenov/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Wednesday delivered an annual address replete with threats against the West but, despite intense tensions with Ukraine, stopped short of announcing new military or foreign policy moves.

Russia’s response will be “asymmetric, fast and tough” if it is forced to defend its interests, Mr. Putin said, pointing to what he claimed were Western efforts at regime change in neighboring Belarus as another threat to Russia’s security.

He pledged that Russia “wants to have good relations with all participants of international society,” even as he noted that Russia’s modernized nuclear weapons systems were at the ready.

“The organizers of any provocations threatening the fundamental interests of our security will regret their deeds more than they have regretted anything in a long time,” Mr. Putin told a hall of governors and members of Parliament. “I hope no one gets the idea to cross the so-called red line with Russia — and we will be the ones to decide where it runs in every concrete case.”

Mr. Putin’s speech had been widely anticipated, with about 100,000 Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s border and Ukraine’s president warning openly of the possibility of war. Some analysts had speculated that Mr. Putin might use his annual state of the nation address to announce a pretext for sending troops into Ukraine.

But that possible outcome did not come to pass, even as Russia’s enormous military presence near Ukraine’s borders showed no sign of receding. Mr. Putin also made no reference to the jailed opposition leader Aleksei A. Navalny, whose supporters were holding protests across the country on Wednesday.

Instead, Mr. Putin spent most of his speech on domestic issues, acknowledging Russians’ discontent with the hardships of the pandemic. He outlined programs to subsidize summer camp for children, smooth the system for child-support payments to single mothers and move more social services online.

Still, it was too early to tell whether Mr. Putin, 68, was pulling back from the brink. Now in his third decade in power, he appears more convinced than ever of his special, historic role as the father of a reborn Russian nation, fighting at home and abroad against a craven, hypocritical, morally decaying West.

“This sense of superiority mixed with arrogance gives him a feeling of power, and this is dangerous,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian analyst who has studied Mr. Putin for years. “When you think you are more powerful and more wise than everyone else around you, you think you have a certain historical mandate for more wide-ranging action.”

Mr. Putin has made moves in recent weeks that, even by his standards, signal an escalation in his conflict with those he perceives as enemies, foreign and domestic. Russian prosecutors last week filed suit to outlaw Mr. Navalny’s organization, a step that could result in the most intense wave of political repression in post-Soviet Russia. And in Russia’s southwest, Mr. Putin has built up a military force, the Kremlin has indicated, that could be prepared to move into neighboring Ukraine.

In Washington, the Biden administration reacted mildly to Mr. Putin’s tough words.

“We don’t take anything President Putin says personally,” Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said when asked for a response. “We have tough skin.”

Asked if the sharpened rhetoric from Mr. Putin would affect the prospects for a possible meeting with President Biden later this year, Ms. Psaki said discussions were ongoing. “Obviously,” she said, “it requires all parties having an agreement that we’re going to have a meeting and we issued that invitation.”

VideoVideo player loadingPresident Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine warned of a possible war with Russia in an address to citizens on Tuesday evening. He directed comments to President Vladimir V. Putin and called for international support.CreditCredit…Ukrainian Presidential Press Service, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine addressed his nation on Tuesday evening, warning citizens of the possibility of war. He addressed President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia directly, urging him to step back from the brink and proposing that the two meet.

The unusual videotaped appearance by Mr. Zelensky — a former comedian elected in 2019 on a promise to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine — was the clearest signal yet that Ukraine is girding for the possibility of a full-fledged war with Russia. Moscow’s buildup of troops on the Ukrainian border, he said, had created “all the preconditions for escalation.”

“Does Ukraine want war? No. Is it ready for it? Yes,” Mr. Zelensky said. “Our principle is simple: Ukraine does not start a war first, but Ukraine always stands to the last man.”

It appeared to be no coincidence that Mr. Zelensky’s address came on the eve of Mr. Putin’s annual state of the nation address on Wednesday. At the end of his video, Mr. Zelensky switched from Ukrainian to Russian, speaking to Mr. Putin directly. He pushed back at Mr. Putin’s contention that Russian forces would be used in Ukraine only if the Russian-speaking population in the east was threatened, and proposed a summit in the war-torn eastern region known as Donbas.

“It is impossible to bring peace on a tank,” Mr. Zelensky said.

“I am ready,” he continued, “to invite you to meet anywhere in the Ukrainian Donbas where there is war.”

There was no immediate response from the Kremlin to Mr. Zelensky’s invitation.

A rally in support of Aleksei A. Navalny in Vladivostok on Wednesday.Credit…Pavel Korolyov/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Protesters in Vladivostok, a major port on the eastern tip of Russia, had no need to hear President Vladimir V. Putin’s annual keynote address on Wednesday, filled with promises of a better future for Russians. They knew what they see as the main issues facing the country would not get mentioned.

“Freedom to political prisoners,” they chanted as they marched through the city center, according to videos posted on social media. “Freedom to Navalny!” they screamed, referring to Aleksei A. Navalny, the Kremlin critic, who is now on a hunger strike in a Russian prison. “Down with the Czar!” they chanted. The police warned protesters through loudspeakers that they could be arrested. “We will not stay silent,” was their response.

Mr. Putin was still speaking when people started gathering on main squares in the country’s Far East — where protests started before rallies extended across the vast nation of 11 time zones.

By the time Mr. Putin had finished, eight people were already detained in the remote city of Magadan, according to Vesma, a local news website. About 40 people came out to protest in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, the capital of the Kamchatka region, with no arrests reported.

In Irkutsk, a major city further west toward Moscow, hundreds of people marched through the city chanting “Freedom to Navalny!” and “Irkutsk, come out!” The police in Irkutsk detained 11 people.

By later in the day, at least 1,226 people had been detained across the country, according to OVD-Info, a rights group that tracks arrests.

About 10,000 people were arrested nationwide in two days of pro-Navalny rallies in January, according to the same group, suggesting that Wednesday’s turnout was lighter.

In Moscow near the Kremlin, several thousand protesters turned out in the gathering dusk. They included Mr. Navalny’s wife, Yulia Navalnaya, who was greeted with chants of “Yulia!”

The Moscow police used loudspeakers warning the protesters to disperse, but there was no sign of heavy-handed tactics to crush the demonstrations. By the end of the day the OVD-Info group said only 23 arrests had been reported in Russia’s capital.

Вот как выглядит шествие в Иркутске сверху (и на фоне красивых деревянных домов в центре города)

Видео: Зоя Кузнецова pic.twitter.com/CJYpQggBUx

— Дождь (@tvrain) April 21, 2021

The last wave of protests were sparked by Mr. Navalny’s return to Russia in January from Germany, where he had been treated after being poisoned with a military-grade nerve agent. Since Mr. Navalny’s return, the Russian government has undertaken an aggressive crackdown on dissent, raising the risks for anyone sympathetic to the protest movement.

Dozens of opposition activists were arrested in 20 cities across Russia ahead of the Wednesday rallies. Some of the activists were beaten and sentenced to administrative arrests, according to OVD Info. Many were members of Mr. Navalny’s political organization, but some were arrested simply for having shared social media posts about the rallies.

Among those detained were two prominent associates of Mr. Navalny: his spokeswoman, Kira Yarmysh; and Lyubov Sobol.

In recent weeks, the Russian authorities have conducted raids on Mr. Navalny’s offices across the country, looking for leaflets and other materials calling for protests. Those items would presumably be used in the Kremlin’s drive to have his organization labeled “extremist,” which would expose its members to potentially lengthy prison terms.

In Kurgan, a city in central Russia, an unidentified person sneaked into Mr. Navalny’s office on Monday morning and destroyed a radiator, flooding the premises.

Under various pretexts, the authorities in cities across Russia blocked central squares and streets. In Yekaterinburg, they rescheduled a Victory Day parade rehearsal to ensure that it overlapped with a scheduled protest. In Kostroma, the central square was closed down, ostensibly for pest control measures.

In universities across the country, students were ordered to sit for unscheduled tests and other gatherings with mandatory attendance, TV Rain, an independent news station reported on Tuesday.

The authorities in Moscow denied Mr. Navalny’s allies a permit for the rally they have planned for Wednesday evening, citing coronavirus concerns. The Prosecutor General’s office warned parents that they would be subject to fines and arrest if their underage children are detained at a rally.

More than 450,000 people nationwide registered online to declare their intent to take part in demonstrations against Mr. Navalny’s incarceration and treatment in prison. More than 100,000 people did so in Moscow, and more than 50,000 in St. Petersburg.

Correction: April 21, 2021

An earlier version of this item misstated Irkutsk’s location relative to the Kamchatka region of Russia. It is further west toward Moscow, not further east. 

Aleksei A. Navalny, left, at a court hearing in February. Credit…Yuri Kochetkov/EPA, via Shutterstock

Russia is moving ahead with efforts to outlaw the organization led by the opposition figure Aleksei A. Navalny, a step that could result in the most intense wave of political repression in the post-Soviet era. But supporters of the jailed opposition leader say they are determined to take to the streets.

Opponents of President Vladimir V. Putin have called for protests across Russia on Wednesday in support of Mr. Navalny, whose allies say he is on a hunger strike and near death in a Russian prison. The police were expected to intervene forcefully to break up the protests, which started in the country’s Far East even before Mr. Putin had finished delivering his state of the nation speech.

Mr. Putin has rarely mentioned Mr. Navalny by name and did not do so in his speech. He did not refer to him in any way.

Mr. Navalny is insisting that he be allowed to be seen by doctors of his choosing. A lawyer who visited him, Vadim Kobzev, said on Tuesday that Mr. Navalny’s arms were punctured and bruised after three nurses had unsuccessfully tried six times to hook him up to an intravenous drip.

“If you saw me now, you would laugh,” Mr. Navalny said in a letter that his team posted to social media. “A skeleton walking, swaying, in its cell.”

United Nations human rights investigators added their voices Wednesday to the demand that Mr. Navalny receive better medical treatment. Independent experts appointed by the world body’s Human Rights Council in Geneva said in a statement that they believed “Mr. Navalny’s life is in serious danger,” and called on the Russian authorities to allow his “urgent medical evacuation from Russia.”

The Kremlin depicts Mr. Navalny as an agent of American influence, and Russian prosecutors filed a lawsuit on Friday to declare his organization “extremist” and illegal.

The extremism designation, which a Moscow court will consider in a secret trial starting next week, would effectively force Russia’s most potent opposition movement underground and could result in yearslong prison terms for pro-Navalny activists.

The White House has warned the Russian government that it “will be held accountable” if Mr. Navalny dies in prison. Western officials — and Mr. Navalny’s supporters and allies — reject the idea that he is acting on another country’s behalf.

But in the Kremlin’s logic, Mr. Navalny is a threat to Russian statehood, doing the West’s bidding by undermining Mr. Putin. It is Mr. Putin who is keeping Russia stable by maintaining a balance between competing factions in Russia’s ruling elite, said Dmitri Trenin, the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center.

“If Putin leaves, a battle between different groups breaks out, and Russia withdraws into itself, has no time for the rest of the world and no longer gets in anyone’s way,” Mr. Trenin said. “The West is, of course, using Navalny, and will use him to create problems for Putin and, in the longer term, help Putin become history in one way or another.”

Protesters in Moscow on Wednesday.Credit…Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times

Several thousand protesters crowded the broad sidewalks near the Kremlin on Wednesday, at one point holding up their cellphones in a symbol of antigovernment defiance.

They called for the jailed opposition leader Aleksei A. Navalny to be freed, but it was a sense of widespread injustice that brought many of them out into the streets despite the threat of arrest.

“I didn’t come out concretely because of Aleksei Navalny — I came out more for myself,” said Svetlana Kosatkina, a 64-year-old real estate agent. “I can’t stand this whole situation of lawlessness and just total humiliation.”

Protesters took up the sidewalks across the street from the exhibition hall next to the Kremlin where President Vladimir V. Putin had given his annual state of the nation speech earlier in the day. They chanted “Go away!” — referring to Mr. Putin; and “Release him!” — referring to Mr. Navalny.

Yulia Navalnaya, Mr. Navalny’s wife, joined the protesters on the boulevard ring in Central Moscow, and was greeted with chants of “Yulia!”

Riot police officers were out in force and blared warnings to disperse through loudspeakers, but they avoided scenes of brutality that could have cast a shadow over Mr. Putin’s speech.

They also effectively kept parts of the city blocked off so that sporadic groups of protesters could never unite into a large crowd.

The outcome, in Moscow at least: The authorities managed to weaken the overall impression the protest made without arresting hundreds of people, as had been done in previous demonstrations.

Only 23 people were arrested in Moscow, according to OVD Info, an independent monitoring group. In earlier demonstrations, the police would typically detain more than 1,000 people.

A 33-year-old advertising professional among the protesters on Wednesday — who gave only his first name, Denis, fearing retribution — blamed Mr. Putin for his current unemployment. It was Mr. Putin’s aggressive foreign policy, he said, that drove away foreign investment and limited young Russians’ hopes for the future.

He had come to the protest with a book, in case he had to spend the night at a police station.

“We are isolated now,” he said. “I don’t see a future for this system. I don’t want to be an enemy to the outside world.”

President Aleksandr Lukashenko of Belarus in Sochi, Russia, in February.Credit…Alexei Druzhinin/Sputnik, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

In a speech filled with bluster and bromides against the West, President Vladimir V. Putin on Wednesday lingered on a grievance that has not gained much traction outside the Russian state news media: an unfounded accusation that the C.I.A. has been plotting to assassinate the leader of Belarus.

Even as he raised the subject, Mr. Putin acknowledged that it was not being taken seriously outside Russia.

“Characteristically, even such lamentable actions are not discussed in the so-called collective West,” Mr. Putin said. “They pretend nothing happened.”

Over the weekend, Russia’s domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Security Service, arrested two men who it said were plotting to murder President Aleksandr Lukashenko of Belarus and to seize television and radio stations.

It said the men had coordinated with U.S. and Polish intelligence agencies and come to Russia to meet Belarusian generals sympathetic to the opposition. The Russian authorities released video that showed the men casually discussing their improbable plot over a meal at a Moscow restaurant.

One of the men, Aleksandr Feduta, is a former spokesman for Mr. Lukashenko. The other, Yuras Zyankovich, has dual U.S. and Belarusian citizenship. The United States and Polish governments denied any role in a murder and coup plot in Belarus.

The arrests aligned with Mr. Putin’s casting of Russia in his state of the nation speech on Wednesday as victimized and pressured by a hypocritical and aggressive Western world that poses imminent threats.

The encroaching West, Mr. Putin said, has “crossed all the boundaries.”

Policies to pressure Russia that were previously limited to economic sanctions “have been reborn as something more dangerous,” he said. “I have in mind the recent facts that came to light of a direct attempt to organize a coup in Belarus and the murder of the leader of that country.”

In an interview in March, President Biden assented when asked whether Vladimir V. Putin was a “killer.”Credit…Amr Alfiky/The New York Times

The election of Joseph R. Biden Jr. as president of the United States, despite his promise to be tough on Russia, initially gave the Kremlin hope, analysts say.

He was seen as more professional, reliable and pragmatic than President Donald J. Trump, with a worldview shaped by a Cold War era of diplomacy in which Washington and Moscow engaged as equal superpowers with a responsibility for global security. In their first phone call in January, Mr. Biden and Mr. Putin agreed to extend the New Start arms-control treaty, a Russian foreign policy goal that the Kremlin had not been able to achieve with Mr. Trump.

Then came the television interview in March in which Mr. Biden assented when asked whether Mr. Putin was a “killer.” A month later, that moment — to which Russian officials and commentators responded with a squall of prime-time-televised, anti-American fury — looks like a turning point. It was followed by last week’s raft of American sanctions against Russia, combined with Mr. Biden’s call for a summit meeting with Mr. Putin, which to many Russians looked like a crude American attempt to negotiate from a position of strength.

“This is seen as an unacceptable situation — you won’t chase us into the stall with sanctions,” said Dmitri Trenin, the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, a think tank.

How far Mr. Putin will go in striking back against the West’s real or imagined hostility is an open question. In the state news media, the mood music is dire. On the flagship weekly news show on the Rossiya 1 channel on Sunday, the host Dmitri Kiselyov closed a segment on Mr. Putin’s showdown with Mr. Biden by reminding viewers of Poseidon — a weapon in Russia’s nuclear arsenal that Mr. Putin revealed three years ago.

“Russia’s armed forces are ready to test-fire a nuclear torpedo that would cause radioactive tsunamis capable of flooding enemy cities and making them uninhabitable for decades,” a translation of a Danish newspaper report intoned.

Still, there are signs that Mr. Putin does not want tensions with the West to spiral out of control.

As Europe and the United States scrambled to assess the Russian troop buildup in late March, Russia’s top military officer, Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov, spoke on the phone with his American counterpart, Gen. Mark A. Milley. On Monday, Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Mr. Putin’s Security Council, discussed the prospect of a presidential summit with Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser. And the Kremlin said this week that Mr. Putin would speak at Mr. Biden’s online climate change meeting on Thursday.

Ms. Stanovaya, the analyst, says she was convinced that Mr. Putin is more interested than his hawkish advisers in looking for ways to work with the United States. She pointed to Mr. Putin’s determination to return Russia to the ranks of great powers.

“Putin very much believes in his mission as a great historic figure with responsibility not only for Russia, but also for global security,” Ms. Stanovaya said. “He doesn’t understand how it is that the American president doesn’t feel the same way.”

A satellite image of Russian military equipment at the Opuk training area on Crimea’s Black Sea coast.Credit…Maxar Technologies, via Associated Press

The Russian authorities closed airspace to commercial traffic near the Ukrainian border starting on Tuesday in another sign of rising military tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

The warning to commercial pilots covers parts of the Crimean Peninsula — annexed by Russia seven years ago — and international airspace over the Black Sea. It formalized what had already become obvious: The region is in the grips of an increasingly ominous military crisis.

Ukraine objected last week to Russia’s closing of areas in the Black Sea to shipping, a ban that the U.S. State Department spokesman, Ned Price, on Monday called an “unprovoked escalation in Moscow’s ongoing campaign to undermine and destabilize Ukraine.”

Over the past month, Russia has massed the largest military force along Ukraine’s eastern border and in Crimea since the outset of war in 2014, according to Western governments. Analysts say that the deliberately high visibility of the buildup indicates that its purpose is more a warning to the West than a prelude to invasion.

“They are deploying in a very visible way,” said Michael Kofman, a senior researcher at CNA, a policy research group in Arlington, Va. “They are doing it overtly, so we can see it. It is intentional.”

The Russian military says it is conducting exercises in response to Ukrainian threats to two Russian-backed separatist regions and to what it calls heightened NATO military activity in the Black Sea area.

Military tensions have also risen elsewhere. On Tuesday, Russia’s Air Force flew two nuclear-capable Tu-160 strategic bombers over the Baltic Sea for eight hours. In the Arctic Ocean, the Northern Fleet has been conducting a huge naval drill, the Defense Ministry said.

A photograph of Mr. Putin on the outskirts of Moscow during his address on Wednesday. He hailed Russians’ “singular cohesion, their spiritual and moral values that in a number of countries are forgotten.”Credit…Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has often sought to bolster domestic support through rally-around-the-flag, aggressive foreign policy moves. But on Wednesday he opened his annual address to the nation by focusing on the bread-and-butter economic issues that polls show most worry Russians.

He rattled off a laundry list of social subsidies that he said his government would begin to provide to new mothers, single parents and low-income families.

“For our entire history, our people triumphed, overcoming challenges thanks to their singular cohesion, their spiritual and moral values that in a number of countries are forgotten, but we on the contrary have strengthened,” Mr. Putin said.

He outlined programs to subsidize summer camp for children, smooth the system for child-support payments to single mothers and move more social services online.

While Russia is still in the throes of a coronavirus wave, Mr. Putin minimized the threat and said Russia would swivel to “healing the wounds” and shoring up the economy. He also laid out a requirement that Russian laboratories be ready to prepare tests for potential new infectious diseases within four days of their discovery.

Mr. Putin traditionally starts his yearly address with a focus on economic issues, and despite rising tensions with the West, this year was no different.

The Russian leader is aware that empty wallets can add fuel to protest movements and that the stagnating economy is taking a toll on support for his government. Russians’ average take-home wages adjusted for inflation have been declining since the Ukraine crisis in 2014, dropping 10 percent since then.

Analysts say it is no coincidence that protests have seeped out of the wealthy cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg to Russia’s far-flung provinces, which are feeling the economic pain more acutely.

The Russian budget fell into deficit during the pandemic last year, but in the first quarter of 2021 was again in surplus, buoyed by rising oil prices. This has provided Mr. Putin room for maneuver on populist policies before parliamentary elections scheduled for the fall.

Over the years, he has padded his speeches with populist announcements that are often repetitions or minor updates on long-running policies.

Russia, for example, has for years paid a bonus of around $10,000 to women for the birth of a child, a policy intended to help reverse Russia’s long demographic decline.

A penal colony in Vladimir, where Mr. Navalny has been moved.Credit…Dimitar Dilkoff/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

United Nations human rights experts, expressing fears for the life of the opposition leader, Aleksei A. Navalny, called on Russia to allow his urgent evacuation for medical treatment abroad.

“We believe Mr. Navalny’s life is in serious danger,” the group of four U.N. experts said in a statement on Wednesday. They cited the attack with a nerve agent last year that nearly killed him, which Western governments believe was ordered by the Kremlin, and his incarceration in conditions that in their view could amount to torture.

These “are all part of a deliberate pattern of retaliation against him for his criticism of the Russian government and a gross violation of his human rights,” according to the experts, including specialists on freedom of speech, torture, extrajudicial killings and the right to health.

“There is no valid legal basis for Mr. Navalny’s arrest, trial and imprisonment,” the experts said. Mr. Navalny has been detained since last month after being convicted of breaching bail conditions while receiving medical treatment in Germany for the Novichok nerve agent attack on him.

Their statement called for his “urgent medical evacuation from Russia.”

Although Mr. Navalny had been transferred to a prison hospital, authorities have not allowed him access to doctors of his own choosing, the rights experts noted.

The Russian authorities’ “apparent violations of the prohibition of torture or other ill-treatment, his right to counsel, and most notably his right to prompt and effective medical care while in detention only deepen our already profound concerns about Mr. Navalny’s life and safety,” the experts said.

Under international law, they said, the Russian government “must take all necessary measures to protect Mr. Navalny’s physical and mental health and well-being.”