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How Lengthy Can We Stay?

Given these statistics, you can expect the record for the longest lifespan to also increase. Yet almost a quarter of a century after Calment’s death, no one is known to have reached or exceeded her 122 years. The next was an American named Sarah Knauss, who died two years after Calment at the age of 119. The oldest living person is Kane Tanaka (118), who lives in Fukuoka, Japan. Very few people make it past 115. (Some researchers have even questioned whether Calment really lived as long as she claimed, though most accept her records as legitimate based on the weight of the biographical evidence.)

As the world population approaches eight billion and science increasingly discovers promising ways to slow or reverse aging in the laboratory, the question of the potential limits of human life expectancy is more pressing than ever. When their work is closely examined, it is clear that longevity scientists have a wide range of nuanced perspectives on the future of humanity. Historically, however, and somewhat frivolously in the view of many researchers, their views have been divided into two broad camps that some journalists and researchers refer to as pessimists and optimists. Those in the first group consider lifespan to be a candle wick that can only burn for so long. They generally think that we are rapidly approaching or have already reached life expectancy and that soon we will not see anyone older than Calment.

In contrast, the optimists see the lifespan as a highly, perhaps even infinitely elastic band. They anticipate significant increases in life expectancy around the world, an increase in the number of extraordinarily long-lived people – and eventually supercenturies who survive Calment and push the record to 125, 150, 200 and beyond. Although unresolved, the longstanding debate has already led to a much deeper understanding of what defines and limits lifespan – and the interventions that could one day extend it significantly.

The theoretical limits The length of a human life has annoyed scientists and philosophers for thousands of years, but for most of history their discussions have been largely based on deliberation and personal observation. In 1825, however, the British actuary Benjamin Gompertz published a new mathematical model of mortality that showed that the risk of death increased exponentially with age. If that risk accelerated further over the course of life, people would eventually reach a point where they essentially had no chance of surviving until the next year. In other words, they would reach an effective life limit.

Instead, Gompertz found that the risk of death was on a plateau with old age. “The lifespan limit is an issue that is likely to never be determined,” he wrote, “even if it should exist.” Since then, other scientists around the world, using new data and more sophisticated math, have found further evidence of accelerating death rates, followed by death plateaus not only in humans but also in numerous other species, including rats, mice, shrimp, nematodes and fruit flies and beetles .

A particularly provocative study in the prestigious research journal Nature in 2016 strongly suggested that the authors had found the limit of human lifespan. Jan Vijg, geneticist at Albert Einstein College of Medicine, and two colleagues analyzed decades of mortality data from several countries and concluded that while the highest reported age of death in these countries rose rapidly between the 1970s and 1990s, it has failed to rise since then and stagnates on average at 114.9 years. The human lifespan seemed to have reached its limit. Although some individuals, like Jeanne Calment, could live to an astounding age, they were outliers and not indicators of continuous life extension.

“Could someone run a two-minute mile? No. The human body is unable to move that fast due to anatomical restrictions. ‘

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New York Metropolis indoor eating capability to extend to 75% in Could

Eataly NYC Downtown reopens with Color Factory for La Pizza & La Pasta, a Colori art installation created by artist Eric Rieger (AKA HOTTEA) in New York City on April 21, 2021.

Noam Galai | Getty Images

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced Friday that indoor restaurant capacity in New York City will increase to 75% on May 7, which will eventually meet indoor restaurant capacity regulations in the rest of the state.

“After a long and incredibly difficult battle, New York State is winning the war on Covid-19. That means it is time to relax some restrictions put in place to protect public health and support our local businesses.” said the governor.

The announcement comes a day after New York Mayor Bill de Blasio announced that the city would reopen fully by July 1 after more than a year of restrictions. Cuomo said he thinks the city could reopen sooner.

Restaurants aren’t the only companies getting capacity expansion. Fitness centers and personal care services will also open their doors to a higher flow of customers.

New York City gyms and fitness centers will expand to 50 percent capacity starting May 15, while hair salons, nail salons, barbershops, and other personal care services will expand to 75 percent capacity starting May 7th.

The governor announced on Wednesday that bar seating restrictions would be lifted on May 3rd. The outdoor dining curfew at 12 noon will end on May 17, and the indoor dining curfew will expire on May 31st.

The capacity of casinos and gaming facilities will be increased from 25% to 50% and that of offices from 50% to 75%.

“We need to reopen and rebuild our economy as data and science improve in our favor. These new announcements will help New Yorkers bounce back after an incredibly difficult year,” said Lisa Sorin, president the Bronx Chamber of Commerce, in a press release.

Due to severe bar and restaurant restrictions that began in March last year, the city suffered from widespread unemployment. As of July 2020, more than 1,200 restaurants closed their doors permanently, according to the New York Comptroller.

The announcements come as the city has a seven-day average of 1,480 new cases. Nearly 6.5 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines have been administered in the city, with 30% of city residents fully vaccinated, according to the city’s health department.

Correction: This article has been updated to clarify that 30% of New York residents have been fully vaccinated, according to the city’s Department of Health.

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Psychiatry Confronts Its Racist Previous, and Tries to Make Amends

Dr. Benjamin Rush, the 18th-century doctor often referred to as the “father” of American psychiatry, was a racist believer that black skin is the result of a mild form of leprosy. He called the condition “Negritude”.

His former apprentice, Dr. Samuel Cartwright, spread the lie throughout Antebellum South that enslaved people who had an unrelenting desire to be free suffered from a mental illness he called “drapetomania,” or “the disease that made negroes run away. ”

In the late 20th century, psychiatry became a receptive audience for drug manufacturers willing to capitalize on racial fears of urban crime and social unrest. (“Attacking and warlike?”, Read an advertisement with a black man with a raised fist, which appeared in the “Archive for General Psychiatry” in 1974. “The collaboration often begins with Haldol.”)

Now the American Psychiatric Association, which carried Rush’s picture on their logo until 2015, is confronting this painful story and trying to make amends for it.

In January, the 176-year-old group apologized for the first time for their racist past. The Board of Directors recognized the “horrific acts of the past” on the part of the profession and committed the association to “identify, understand and correct our injustices in the past” and promised to introduce “anti-racist practices” to address the inequalities of the past quit in nursing, research, education, and leadership.

This weekend the APA is dedicating its annual meeting to the topic of justice. During the three-day virtual meeting of up to 10,000 participants, the group will present the results of their years of efforts to educate their 37,000 mostly white members about the psychologically toxic effects of racism both in their work and in the lives of their patients.

Dr. Jeffrey Geller, the outgoing president of the APA, made these efforts the signature project of his year-long tenure.

“This is really historic,” he said in a recent interview. “We have laid the foundation for long-term efforts and long-term change.”

Dr. Cheryl Wills, a psychiatrist who led a research group that looked at structural racism in psychiatry, said the group’s work could make for a new generation of black psychiatrists who have a much greater chance of knowing they are valued , entering the profession, proving and seen as life changing. She remembered the isolation she experienced in her early years in medicine and the difficulty of finding other black psychiatrists to refer patients to.

“It’s a once in a lifetime opportunity,” she said. “In psychiatry, like in any other profession, she has to start at the top,” she said of her hope for change. “Check out our own garden before we can look elsewhere.”

For critics, however, the APA’s apology and task force is a long overdue but still inadequate attempt to catch up. They point out that in 2008 the American Medical Association apologized for its more than 100-year history of “actively reinforcing or passively accepted racial inequalities and the exclusion of African American doctors.”

“You are taking these tiny, superficial, and palatable steps,” said Dr. Danielle Hairston, a member of the task force who also serves as president of the APA’s Black Caucus and director of psychiatry at Howard University College of Medicine.

“People will be fine to say we need more mentors. People will be fine to say we are going to do these town halls, ”she continued. “This is a first step, but in terms of the real work, the APA still has a long way to go.”

The question for the organization – with its levels of bureaucracy, diverse constituencies and strong institutional tradition – is how to get there.

Critics working both inside and outside the APA say it still has high hurdles to overcome to truly address its racial equity issues – including its diagnostic biases, ongoing shortage of black psychiatrists, and a payment structure that tends to exclude people who cannot afford to pay for services out of pocket.

“All of these procedural structures in place help maintain the system and keep the system the way it is supposed to work,” said Dr. Ruth Shim, director of cultural psychiatry and professor of clinical psychiatry at the University of California Davis, who left the APA in frustration last summer.

They all add up to an “existential crisis in psychiatry”.

White psychiatrists have pathologized black behavior for hundreds of years, wrapping racial beliefs in the cloak of scientific certainty and even big data. According to Dr. Geller, who published a report on the history of structural racism in psychiatry last summer, first referred to the APA as the Association of Medical Superintendents of American Institutions for the Insane. The group came into being after the 1840 census, which included a new demographic category: “Insane and Idiotic”.

The results have been interpreted by slave-friendly politicians and sympathetic social scientists to find a significantly higher rate of mental illness among blacks in northern states than in those in the south.

In the decades following the reconstruction, prominent psychiatrists used words like “primitive” and “savage” to make the cruel racist claim that black Americans were unsuitable for the challenges of life as independent, fully disenfranchised citizens.

TO Powell, superintendent of the notorious state madhouse in Milledgeville, Georgia, and president of the American Medico-Psychological Association (the forerunner of the APA), went so far as to outrageously declare in 1897 that “before the Civil War” there were comparatively few negro madmen. After their sudden emancipation, their number of madmen began to multiply. “

Psychiatry continued to pathologize – and sometimes demonize – African Americans, with the result that by the 1970s the diagnosis of psychosis was so often made that the profession essentially “turned schizophrenia into a black aggression and agitation disorder.” said Dr. Hairston, an author of the 2019 book, Racism and Psychiatry.

Since then, numerous studies have shown that the misalignment of an almost exclusively white profession with black expressions of emotions – and the frequent amalgamation of distress and anger – has led to an underdiagnosis and overconfidence in major depression, particularly in black men Use of antipsychotics. Black patients are less likely than white patients to receive appropriate medication for their depression, according to a report published in Psychiatric Services in 2008.

To change course and better serve black patients, organized psychiatry must give higher priority to training doctors to truly listen, said Dr. Dionne Hart, Minneapolis-based psychiatrist and addiction medicine specialist and assistant professor of psychiatry at the Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science.

“We checked many boxes publicly,” she said in an interview. “Now we have to do the work. We need to show that we are committed to undoing the damage and working with all of our colleagues from across the country to identify trauma and recognize trauma where it exists and treat people appropriately. “

Psychiatrists are liberal and many say that people with mental illness are a marginalized and underserved group. In 1973, the APA made history by removing “homosexuality” as a psychiatric diagnosis from the second edition of its Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders. But the kind of soul searching that went around that decision took much longer with the breed.

Psychiatry remains a strikingly white field to this day, with only 10.4 percent of practitioners from historically underrepresented minorities. According to a 2020 study published in Academic Psychiatry, they now make up almost 33 percent of the US population. This study found that 2013 were black Americans only 4.4 percent of practicing psychiatrists.

The history of the discipline of pathologizing black people – “viewing black communities as seething cauldrons of psychopathology,” as three reformist authors put it in the American Journal of Psychiatry in 1970 – has deterred some black medical students from entering the profession.

“Some people in my family won’t say I’m a psychiatrist even now,” noted Dr. Hairston. “A family member told me on my game day that she was disappointed that I had adjusted to psychiatry rather than some other specialty – it seemed like I was abandoning the family.”

The difficulty of finding a black psychiatrist can affect black patients’ willingness to seek treatment. And psychiatric help is conspicuously inaccessible even to patients without money.

Psychiatry is an outlier among other medical specialties for the extent to which its practitioners choose not to participate in public or private health insurance programs.

In 2019, a study by the Medicaid and CHIP Payments and Access Commission found that psychiatrists were the least likely to accept health insurers: only 62 percent accepted new patients with commercial plans or Medicare, while they were even more anemic, while 36 percent took new patients with Medicaid on. In contrast, 90 percent of all providers said they would accept new patients with private insurance, 85 percent said they would accept those with Medicare, and 71 percent were willing to see Medicaid patients.

Many psychiatrists say they don’t have health insurance because the reimbursement rates are too low. A 2019 study found that reimbursement rates for general practitioners nationwide were nearly 24 percent higher than for psychiatrists – including psychiatrists. In 11 states this gap widened to more than 50 percent.

The APA’s advocacy in this particular area of ​​justice has focused on promoting full insurers’ compliance with the Mental Insurance Equality and Addiction Act, a 2008 law that mandates health insurance plans that provide mental health coverage At a comparable level they provide physical health care.

While the profession hopes for higher reimbursement rates, the short-term gap that affects patients is unequal access to treatment. “What has always bothered me most about the practice of psychiatry is that you can talk about your commitment to things like justice. However, when you have a system where many people do not have access, so many patients are cut off from access to quality care, ”said Dr. Damon Tweedy, Duke University Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences and author of “Black Man in a White Coat: A Physician’s Considerations on Race and Medicine.”

“What are our values?” said Dr. Tweedy seeing patients in the Durham Veterans Affairs Health Care System. “We could say one thing, but our actions suggest another.”

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Dr. Scott Gottlieb expects little impression on U.S. Covid instances

The restrictions recently announced by the Biden government on travelers from India are unlikely to play a significant role in limiting new coronavirus cases in the US, said Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Friday.

“Will it have an impact? Perhaps a minor impact on margins in terms of reducing introductions. This will not affect our trajectory dramatically at this point,” the former Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration told Closing Bell. “It will probably do more harm to India than any good it attributes to us.”

Gottlieb, who sits on the board of directors at Covid vaccine maker Pfizer, believes the White House’s main reasons for restricting travel from India are concerns about the variant of coronavirus known as B.1.617. It was first discovered in the country and is considered highly contagious.

“But that variant is here anyway, and frankly the best way to reduce the risk of this variant is to get more Americans vaccinated,” said Gottlieb, who headed the FDA in the Trump administration from 2017 to 2019, the best Backstop against the spread of this variant without restricting travel at this point. “

White House press secretary Jen Psaki announced the travel restrictions on Friday, which will go into effect on Tuesday. India has seen a sharp spike in Covid cases in the past few weeks and weighs heavily on its health system as the daily death toll hit new records.

According to someone familiar with the matter, the travel order is likely to be for non-US citizens or permanent residents who have recently been to India. This means that the restrictions will have a similar format to those put in place on many trips to the US from China, Brazil and the European Union, effectively excluding most of the visitors from India to the US

“There are some studies that show that implementing travel restrictions can delay the introduction of a virus to a new area – and most of the studies that have been done have looked at pandemic influenza-related introduction and perhaps reduction the height of the epidemic that another country will experience, “said Gottlieb.

If the US had introduced travel restrictions earlier in the pandemic, “which weren’t that leaky,” Gottlieb said, it would be possible that the coronavirus would have taken longer to penetrate the country and limit the severity of the outbreak.

“But at this point we have enough viruses here in the US not to prevent the virus from being brought in from India,” he said.

The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request to comment on Gottlieb’s comments.

Coronavirus cases in the US have continued to decline as more Americans are vaccinated against Covid. On Friday, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed that more than 100 million Americans were fully vaccinated.

However, the pace of daily re-vaccinations has slowed, and states are working to find ways to target Americans who are not particularly eager to get a Covid shot.

“I think we can keep working on it,” said Gottlieb, suggesting that a decrease in the average number of shots per day “doesn’t mean we’re doing a bad job.” He added, “I think it’s inevitable that it slows down when you get into weaker demand.”

“Things like vaccination buses, where they just drive up to communities and people can show up on site without waiting and get vaccinated. That way, more people are vaccinated,” added Gottlieb. “Delivering vaccines through construction sites will also help.”

Disclosure: Scott Gottlieb is a CNBC employee and a member of the boards of directors of Pfizer, genetic testing startup Tempus, health technology company Aetion Inc., and biotech company Illumina. He is also co-chair of the Healthy Sail Panel for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Royal Caribbean.

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The Robotic Surgeon Will See You Now

Dr. Danyal Fer sat on a stool a few feet from a long-armed robot, wrapping his fingers around two metal handles near his chest.

As it moved the handles – up and down, left and right – the robot mimicked every little movement with its own two arms. Then, when he squeezed his thumb and forefinger together, one of the robot’s tiny claws did the same. So surgeons like Dr. Fer has long been using robots to operate on patients. You can withdraw a prostate from a patient while they are sitting at a computer console in the room.

After this brief demonstration, Dr. Fer and his colleagues at the University of California at Berkeley how they hope to advance the state of the art. Dr. Fer let go of the handles and a new kind of computer software took over. As he and the other researchers watched, the robot began to move on its own.

With one claw the machine lifted a tiny plastic ring from an equally small pen on the table, passed the ring from one claw to the other, moved it across the table, and carefully hooked it onto a new pen. Then the robot did the same with several more rings and completed the task as quickly as it would under Dr. Fer.

The training exercise was originally designed for people; By moving the rings from pen to pen, surgeons learn to operate robots like the one in Berkeley. According to a new research report from the Berkeley team, an automated robot performing the test can match or even outperform a human in terms of skill, precision, and speed.

The project is part of a much broader effort to bring artificial intelligence into the operating room. Using many of the same technologies that support self-driving cars, autonomous drones, and warehouse robots, researchers are also working to automate surgical robots. These methods are still far from everyday use, but progress is accelerating.

“It’s an exciting time,” said Russell Taylor, a professor at Johns Hopkins University and a former IBM researcher known in academia as the father of robotic surgery. “This is where I was hoping we would be 20 years ago.”

The aim is not to remove surgeons from the operating room, but to reduce their burden and possibly even increase the success rate – where there is room for improvement – by automating certain phases of the operation.

Robots can exceed the accuracy of humans for some surgical tasks, such as inserting a pen into a bone (a particularly risky task with knee and hip replacements). The hope is that automated robots can perform other tasks like cuts or sutures more accurately and reduce the risks associated with overworked surgeons.

During a recent phone conversation, Greg Hager, a computer scientist at Johns Hopkins, said that surgical automation would advance much like the autopilot software that guided his Tesla while talking on the New Jersey Turnpike. The car drove alone, he said, but his wife still has her hands on the steering wheel if something goes wrong. And she would take over when it was time to get off the freeway.

“We can’t automate the whole process, at least not without human error,” he said. “But we can start developing automation tools that make a surgeon’s life a little easier.”

Five years ago, researchers at the National Children’s Health System in Washington, DC, developed a robot that could automatically sut up a pig’s intestines during surgery. It was a remarkable step in the direction of Dr. Gaunt envisaged future. But it came with an asterisk: the researchers implanted tiny markings in the pig’s intestines that emitted near-infrared light and helped control the robot’s movements.

The method is far from practical as the markers cannot be easily implanted or removed. In recent years, artificial intelligence researchers have greatly improved the performance of computer vision, allowing robots to perform surgical tasks on their own without such markers.

Change is driven by so-called neural networks, mathematical systems that can learn skills by analyzing large amounts of data. For example, by analyzing thousands of cat photos, a neural network can learn to recognize a cat. Similarly, a neural network can learn from images captured by surgical robots.

Surgical robots are equipped with cameras that record three-dimensional videos of each operation. The video is streamed into a viewfinder, where surgeons look into as they lead the operation and observe from the robot’s point of view.

After that, however, these images also provide a detailed roadmap showing how operations are performed. You can help new surgeons understand how to use these robots, and they can train robots to do tasks on their own. By analyzing images that show a surgeon guiding the robot, a neural network can learn the same skills.

In this way, Berkeley researchers have worked to automate their robot, which is based on the da Vinci Surgical System, a two-armed machine that allows surgeons to perform more than a million procedures annually. Dr. Fer and his colleagues collect images of the robot that moves the plastic rings under human control. Then your system learns from these images by pointing out the best ways to grip the rings, guide them between claws, and move them onto new pens.

However, this process was marked with its own asterisk. When the system told the robot where to go, the robot often missed the spot by millimeters. Over the months and years, the many metal cables in the robot’s twin arms stretched and bent in small ways so that its movements weren’t as precise as they needed to be.

Human operators could unconsciously compensate for this shift. But the automated system couldn’t. This is often the problem with automated technology: it struggles to deal with change and uncertainty. Autonomous vehicles are still a long way from being widespread as they are not yet nimble enough to cope with the chaos of the everyday world.

The Berkeley team decided to build a new neural network that would analyze the robot’s errors and learn how much precision it was losing every day. “It learns how the robot’s joints develop over time,” said Brijen Thananjeyan, a PhD student on the team. Once the automated system could accommodate this change, the robot could grab and move the plastic rings, which was what human operators could do.

Other laboratories try different approaches. Axel Krieger, a Johns Hopkins researcher who was part of the Pig Seam Project in 2016, is working on automating a new type of robotic arm, one with fewer moving parts that is more constant than the type of robot used by the Berkeley team becomes . Researchers at the Worcester Polytechnic Institute are developing methods for machines that will allow them to carefully guide surgeons’ hands as they perform certain tasks, such as: B. inserting a needle for a cancer biopsy or burning it into the brain to remove a tumor.

“It’s like a car where the lane following is autonomous, but you still control the gas and the brakes,” said Greg Fischer, one of the Worcester researchers.

Scientists realize that there are many obstacles ahead of us. Moving plastic pens is one thing; Cutting, moving and sewing meat is another. “What happens if the camera angle changes?” said Ann Majewicz Fey, an associate professor at the University of Texas, Austin. “What if smoke gets in the way?”

For the foreseeable future, automation will be something that works with surgeons rather than replacing them. But even that could have profound implications, said Dr. Fer. For example, doctors could perform operations over distances well beyond the width of the operating room – perhaps several kilometers or more – to help wounded soldiers on distant battlefields.

The signal delay is too long to currently allow this. But if a robot could do at least some of the tasks on its own, remote surgery could become profitable, said Dr. Fer: “You could send a high-level plan and then the robot could execute it.”

The same technology would be essential for remote operation over even greater distances. “If we humans operate on the moon,” he said, “surgeons will need entirely new tools.”

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BioNTech expects information on youngsters ages 5 to 11 as early as finish of summer season

16-year-old Thomas Gregory will be vaccinated with the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine by Nurse Cindy Lamica at UMass Memorial Health Care’s COVID-19 Vaccination Center at the Mercantile Center in Worcester, Massachusetts on April 22, 2021.

Joseph Precious | AFP | Getty Images

Data on how well the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine works in children ages 5-11 could be available by the end of this summer, the scientist who helped develop the shot told CNBC.

If clinical trials go well and the Food and Drug Administration approves, young children could be vaccinated by the end of the year, said BioNTech Co-Founder and Chief Medical Officer Dr. Ozlem Tureci, late Thursday.

“We expect the data by the end of summer or fall this year. We will then submit it to the regulatory authorities and, depending on how quickly they react, we will receive approval by the end of the year to also immunize younger children.” ” She said.

In late March, Pfizer and BioNTech began a clinical trial testing their vaccine in healthy children aged 6 months to 11 years. This is a critical step in gaining regulatory approval to vaccinate young children and fight the pandemic.

In the first phase of the study, companies will determine the preferred dosage level for three age groups – between 6 months and 2 years, 2 and 5 years, and between 5 and 11 years. Dosages are assessed 11 first in children ages 5 to 11 before researchers move on to the other age groups, they said.

Since companies rate the older age group first, data on children under 5 could be “a little later,” Tureci told CNBC.

The two-dose vaccine is already approved for use in people aged 16 and over. Earlier this month, Pfizer and BioNTech asked the FDA to allow their Covid-19 vaccine to be given to children ages 12-15 in an emergency.

The companies announced in late March that the vaccine was 100% effective in a study of more than 2,000 adolescents. They also said the vaccine produced a “robust” antibody response in the children that outperformed that in a previous study in older teenagers and young adults. The side effects were generally consistent with those seen in adults, they added.

Vaccinating children is seen as critical to ending the pandemic. The nation is unlikely to achieve herd immunity – if enough people in a given community have antibodies to a given disease – until children can be vaccinated, health officials and experts say.

According to the government, children make up around 20% of the total US population. According to experts, between 70% and 85% of the US population must be vaccinated against Covid to achieve herd immunity and some adults may refuse to get the shots.

In addition to testing the vaccine in young children, Pfizer and BioNTech are testing whether a third dose of the vaccine would provide a better immune response against new variants of the virus.

Ugur Sahin, CEO of BioNTech, told CNBC on Thursday that he was “confident” that the vaccine would be effective against B.1.617, a highly contagious variant of coronavirus first identified in India.

Still, he said, people will likely need a third shot of his two-dose vaccine as immunity to the virus wanes. Researchers see a decrease in antibody responses to the virus after eight months, he added.

“If we give a boost, we could actually increase the antibody response beyond what we started with, and that could give us a real comfort of protection for at least 12 months, maybe 18 months,” said Sahin. “And that is really important at a time when all variants are coming.”

Sahin also said he anticipates demand for the shot will continue to rise, adding that the company will increase production capacity of the vaccine to 3 billion doses by the end of 2021. In December, Sahin expects the company’s production target to increase to 400 million cans per month.

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With New C.D.C Masks Guidelines, Uncertainty on Find out how to Proceed

Mark Rasch got on his bike in Bethesda, Md., On Tuesday, drove off in the afternoon and found that he had forgotten his mask. When he turned, news was coming on the radio through his earphones: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that masks for fully vaccinated people were no longer needed outdoors unless they were in a crowd.

Mr. Rasch, a lawyer, rode naked from nose to chin for the first time in a year. He reached nearby Georgetown and found that he was almost alone as almost everyone else there remained masked.

“I wondered if there was a store I could go to without wearing a mask to buy a mask,” he said. Instead, he went home and said to his wife, “Nothing changes, but it goes quickly.”

It’s pandemic spring. After last year’s trauma, the quarantines are popping up in sunlight and starting to find their way around trips, classrooms, and restaurants. And they discover that many feel uncomfortable when it comes to going back to the old ways. Do you shake hands? Hug? With or without a mask?

It’s a confusion exacerbated by the change in state and federal rules that vary by congressional district or even neighborhood, while the very real risk of infection is greater in some places than others.

Many states and cities are trying to incorporate the agency’s new legal counsel into their own rules. New York has ended its curfew. In California, where masks continue to be recommended, authorities are trying to reconcile clashes of clues.

“We have reviewed and endorsed the CDC’s new masking recommendations and are working quickly to align the California guidelines with these common sense guidelines,” said Dr. Tomás Aragón, director of the California Department of Health, in a statement.

Dr. Susan Huang of the University of California, Irvine, Medical School explained conflict psychology as a function of rapidly changing risk and the difference in tolerance individuals have for risk. Currently, she said, most places have a base for vaccinated people but are nowhere near the 80 percent that characterizes herd immunity – without vaccinating children.

“We’re between the dark and the light,” said Dr. Huang. She compared the psychology of masks and other behavior to the different approaches people take to change their closets at the end of winter: people who are risk-averse continue to wear winter clothing on 50-degree days, with higher risk takers opting for shorts .

“At some point,” she said, “everyone will be wearing shorts.”

It seems that this psychology defines the way the pandemic is subsiding and, after severe trauma, is less about public dictation than about personal comfort. For many, the battle for jurisdiction is internal, with mind and soul arguing about proper personal policy.

“I hugged friends, but in a very awkward posture,” said Shirley Lin, who lives in Fremont, California, where she works on business development for a mobile game company. “The bear hugs with the joyful cry will not be seen for a long, long time.”

Her partner lost his mother to Covid-19. She died in August in St. Petersburg, Russia, at the age of 68. Ms. Lin, scarred, is doubtful that the risk has passed. “I don’t think we can slack off with the right social distancing and masking,” she said. But “we are much more optimistic.”

Updated

April 30, 2021, 7:54 a.m. ET

Masks are so much more than just a barrier between germs and lungs. You can keep this chatty neighbor at bay or help the introvert hide in sight. And vanity? Goodbye.

“It saves me from putting on sunscreen and lipstick,” said Sara J. Becker, associate professor at Brown University School of Public Health.

She recently had an uncomfortable transition moment when she, her husband and two children went to an outdoor fire pit with vaccinated neighbors.

“Someone offered me their hand and I gave my elbow,” said Dr. Becker. She was “not quite ready for handshakes or hugs,” she explained, although “I was definitely a hug before Covid”.

Dr. Shervin Assari too, but he abstains – at least for the time being, especially after the last few weeks. His mother, who lives in Tehran, has just been released from hospital after a dangerous battle with Covid-19, and Dr. Assari feels chastened again.

“I had an abstract idea of ​​the risk and now I really see the risk,” said Dr. Assari who lives in Lakewood, California. He is “half vaccinated,” he said, “and is terrified of Covid-19.” ”

Dr. Assari, a public health expert, seeks to modulate his own behavior in the face of the three different worlds he wants to navigate: the working class neighborhood where he lives in south Los Angeles; his daughter’s elementary school; and the historically black medical school at Charles Drew University of Medicine and Science, where he teaches family medicine.

Everyone is different in culture. Most of the residents in his neighborhood wear masks, but they also seem to respect their individual choices. The elementary school maintains strict standards with daily checklists to ensure that no one is sick or at risk.

And at medical school, people religiously wear masks even when the school is suspicious of vaccination, despite training doctors, nurses, and others in the field.

“It’s shocking – it’s very deep distrust, not just moderate,” said Dr. Assari. The medical establishment’s skepticism has been on the rise for centuries – like the infamous Tuskegee experiments – and he doubts it will end anytime soon. But the distrust at his school is different from that of the Conservatives: vaccination can be slow for either group, but white Conservatives can tear their masks off faster if they wear them at all.

“There’s none of that Tucker Carlson stuff here,” he said. Mr Carlson, a talk show host on Fox News, said on a recent broadcast that it should be “illegal” for children to wear masks outside and that “your reaction should be no different than when someone beats a child at Walmart ” Call the police.

(Dr. Anthony Fauci, the President’s Chief Medical Officer for Covid, immediately shot back at CNN: “I think it goes without saying that this is bizarre.”)

In San Francisco, Huntley Barad, a retired entrepreneur, ventured out on the road with his wife this week, and they took their first maskless walk in more than a year.

“We were walking down the Great Highway,” he said. “We’re ready to stick our heads out from under our rock and maybe find a restaurant with a nice outdoor table – on a warm night if possible.”

But he said their plans for a date night are not set, much like the conflicting leadership and behavior of a nation itself.

“Nothing in particular yet.”

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Singapore experiences 16 Covid instances locally, highest in 9 months

SINGAPORE – The Singapore Ministry of Health reported 16 new locally transmitted coronavirus cases on Thursday, the highest number since July 11 when the country reported 24 cases in the community.

The Southeast Asian country divides the cases into three categories – imported from overseas, in dormitories for migrant workers, and in the community.

In recent months, most of the infections in Singapore have been found in people entering the country and serving its mandatory quarantines.

However, cases in the church have increased this month.

“Overall, the number of new cases in the community has increased from 9 cases in the previous week to 13 cases in the past week,” the ministry said on Wednesday. So far, cases in the community have been around two per week.

People wearing face masks as a precaution walk down Orchard Road, a famous shopping area in Singapore.

Maverick Asio | SOPA pictures | LightRocket | Getty Images

Seven of Thursday’s community cases are family members of a previously confirmed case, while eight are related to a nurse who tested positive for Covid on Tuesday.

These eight cases were discovered through “proactive testing of patients and staff” on the ward where the nurse worked, the ministry said. No details were given about the remaining community case.

The nurse had received both doses of the vaccine but developed symptoms this week. After her infection was confirmed, the hospital closed the ward where she worked. A Facebook post also stated that no visitors were allowed to enter the stations until further notice.

In addition to community cases, Singapore reported 19 imported cases on Thursday, bringing the country’s total since the pandemic started to 61,121. As of April 18, Singapore had given more than 2.2 million doses of a coronavirus vaccine, with nearly 850,000 fully vaccinated out of a population of 5.7 million.

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Does It Matter if I Skip My Second Dose of Covid Vaccine?

It’s also not clear how long the protection of the first dose lasts without the surge of a second dose, said Dr. Fauci during a press conference at the White House in April.

Updated

April 29, 2021, 6:12 p.m. ET

“We were and still are concerned that if you look at the level of protection after a dose, you can say it’s 80 percent, but it’s a little weak 80 percent,” said Dr. Fauci. He said there was concern that more contagious variants that continue to spread around the globe might partially dodge after just one dose of vaccine-induced antibodies. “You’re in a weak zone if you don’t get the full effect of two doses,” he said.

Breakthrough infections after vaccination, while rare, do occur. A recent study of 250 people in Israel who were infected with the Pfizer vaccine after partial vaccination – between two weeks after the first dose and one week after the second dose – showed that they infected disproportionately with B.1.1.7 variant were first identified in Great Britain. The same study found that a group of 149 people infected after the second dose of vaccine developed eight infections with B.1.351 (the variant first identified in South Africa) between the seventh and 13th day after the second dose. No breakthrough infections with the South African variant were observed 14 days after the second dose. Although it was a small sample, the result suggested that full vaccination would provide more protection against the variants, said Adi Stern, the study’s lead author, a professor at Tel Aviv University’s Shmunis School of Biomedicine and Cancer Research .

Another study showing the benefits of full vaccination looked at a group of 91,134 patients previously seen by doctors at the Houston Methodist Hospital system and followed them between December and April. Most were not vaccinated, but 4.5 percent were partially immunized and 25.4 percent were fully immunized. There were 225 deaths from Covid-19 in the group and 219 (97 percent) were among the unvaccinated. However, five deaths (2.2 percent) occurred in the partially immunized. Only one person (0.004 percent) died in the fully immunized group. In this study, full vaccination was protected 96 times from hospitalization and 98.7 percent from death from Covid-19. However, the partially vaccinated were only 77 percent protected from hospitalization and 64 percent from fatal Covid-19.

The study’s lead author, Saad B. Omer, director of the Yale Institute for Global Health, said he started the research with a “neutral” view of the benefits of two doses over a single dose. But he is now convinced that the benefits of a second dose matter.

“Given the data from our study and other evidence, it doesn’t make sense for people to skip their second dose,” said Dr. Omer. “When it comes to preventing death from vaccines, the jar is 64 percent full, but wouldn’t you rather have it almost 100 percent full for a result as drastic and irreversible as death?”

Aside from the obvious health risks, skipping the second dose can also make your life more complicated if you’re traveling or visiting facilities that require proof of vaccination. “You are not considered fully vaccinated,” said Dr. Brownstein. “It can have an impact on getting back to normal. If your vaccination record or card does not show full status, there may be certain things you cannot do. You may not be able to get on a plane. “

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FDA to suggest ban on menthol-flavored cigarettes, with trade prone to problem

The Food and Drug Administration announced Thursday that it would propose a ban on menthol-flavored cigarettes in the US, which would mean a big blow to future tobacco sales.

Menthol is the last permitted flavor for cigarettes. According to the FDA, menthol cigarettes were disproportionately used by teenagers, black people and low-income groups. The vast majority of black smokers prefer menthol brands of cigarettes, and black men currently have the highest rates of lung cancer in the country.

“With these actions, the FDA will help significantly reduce initiation of adolescents, increase the likelihood of smoking cessation among current smokers, and eliminate health gaps that occur among color communities, low-income populations, and LGBTQ + people, all of which are far more likely are to use these tobacco products, “said Janet Woodcock, acting FDA commissioner, in a press release.

This decision was in response to a 2013 citizen application. A court had ordered a response from the agency by Thursday.

Years until implementation

However, Jefferies analyst Owen Bennett said that proposal would take years to reach a conclusion, as it would need sufficient evidence from both sides, which could be difficult.

“If we see a proposed rule for menthol, it could take years to reach the final rule as a waterproof evidence package would have to be put together … the FDA itself has said in the past that there was not enough evidence,” he said in a report, adding that large tobacco companies might strike back in response, which would mean more time.

This decision was made after years of deliberation by public health officials to help smokers make the transition to less harmful practices such as non-flammable products or smoking cessation altogether.

Menthol cigarettes make up about a third of all cigarettes sold in the United States. The leading brands are Newport, owned by British American Tobacco’s RJ Reynolds, and Kool, owned by Imperial Tobacco’s ITG Brands.

British American Tobacco controls a whopping 66% stake in the menthol market, while Altria has a 26% stake and Imperial an 8% stake, according to a report by Bernstein analyst Callum Elliott.

Altria’s business is less exposed to menthol sales. Elliott estimates that only about 17% of its volume falls into this category. It would be a bigger blow to British American as more than half of its cigarette volume comes from that category, Elliott said.

Imperial Brands said the FDA’s decision was “disappointing” but expected. According to Elliott, menthol makes up about 30% of its volume.

“We believe the rulemaking process will show that there is no clear scientific evidence to support a menthol and flavor ban at the federal level. We hope the FDA will comply with the law and prioritize sound politics and science over political pressure,” said the enterprise.

‘Unintended Consequences’

Marlboro cigarette maker Altria has warned of the possibility of a ban that could create an illegal market.

“We share a common goal of switching adult smokers from cigarettes to potentially less harmful alternatives, but the ban is not working,” Altria said in a statement. “The criminalization of menthol will have serious unintended consequences.”

Reynolds and his parent company British American Tobacco were not immediately available for comment.

The argument against flavors

If implemented, the proposal would be of great benefit to anti-tobacco advocates who have long seen flavored cigarettes as a way for consumers to become acquainted with smoking.

Tobacco product smoking is the leading cause of preventable death in the country, according to the FDA. There are plans to introduce product standards to eliminate menthol in cigarettes within the next year, as well as to eliminate all signature flavors, including menthol, in cigars.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, fourteen percent of all American adults smoked cigarettes in 2019. Although smoking rates are similar between black and white populations, black smokers are less likely to quit, which some have attributed to the menthol taste. The mint taste of menthol cools the throat and makes it easier for smokers to tolerate the tobacco taste.

The FDA cited a tobacco control study indicating that a ban could help smokers quit smoking. It pursued behavior after menthol bans were introduced in Canada. The FDA estimates a US ban could cause an additional 923,000 smokers, including 230,000 African Americans, to quit in the first 13 to 17 months.

Last week, the Biden government also announced it was considering limiting nicotine levels in cigarettes. This is another step that the FDA has been pushing for years. However, today’s announcement on menthol cigarettes makes no mention of a reduction in nicotine levels.

Altria and British American Tobacco, Reynolds’ parent company, lost nearly 2% in midday trading.

Read the FDA statement here.