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Specialists Urge Air High quality Requirements as Safeguard Towards Coronavirus

Clean water in 1842, food safety in 1906, ban on leaded paints in 1971. These sweeping public health reforms have changed not only our environment but also expectations of what governments can do.

According to a group of 39 scientists, now is the time to do the same for indoor air quality. In a sort of manifesto published Thursday in Science magazine, researchers called for a “paradigm shift” in the way citizens and government officials think about the quality of the air we breathe indoors.

The timing of the scientists’ call to action coincides with the large-scale reopening of the country as coronavirus cases drop sharply: Americans are about to return to offices, schools, restaurants, and theaters – exactly the kind of crowded indoor spaces that the coronavirus is thought to thrive.

There is little doubt that the coronavirus can linger in the air indoors and soar well beyond the recommended six-foot distance, the experts said. The accumulated research places policymakers and civil engineers under an obligation to provide clean air in public buildings and to minimize the risk of respiratory infections.

“We expect clean water from the taps,” said Lidia Morawska, group leader and aerosol physicist at the Queensland University of Technology in Australia. “We expect clean and safe food when we buy it in the supermarket. We should also expect clean air in our buildings and in all common spaces. “

Fulfilling the group’s recommendations would require new workplace air quality standards, but the scientists claimed that remedial action needn’t be onerous. Indoor air quality can be improved with a few simple fixes: adding filters to existing ventilation systems, using portable air purifiers and ultraviolet lights – or just opening windows where possible.

Dr. Morawska led a group of 239 scientists who last year called on the World Health Organization to recognize that the coronavirus can spread in tiny droplets, or aerosols, that drift through the air. WHO had insisted that the virus only spread in larger, heavier droplets and by touching contaminated surfaces, which went against their own 2014 rule of assuming that all new viruses are in the air.

The WHO admitted on July 9th that aerosol transmission of the virus could be responsible for “Covid-19 outbreaks that have been reported in some closed settings, such as in a public house. For example, in restaurants, night clubs, places of worship or workplaces where people may shout, speak or sing ”, but only at a short distance.

The pressure to take measures to prevent airborne spread has increased recently. In February, more than a dozen experts requested the Biden administration to update workplace standards for high-risk environments such as meat packers and prisons where Covid outbreaks were widespread.

Last month, a separate group of scientists detailed 10 lines of evidence demonstrating the importance of indoor air transmission.

On April 30, the WHO pushed forward and allowed aerosols to “float in the air or move more than 1 meter (long range)” in poorly ventilated rooms. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which were also slow to update their guidelines, realized last week that the virus can be breathed indoors, even if a person is more than three feet from an infected person.

“You have ended up in a much better, more scientifically feasible place,” said Linsey Marr, Virginia Tech airborne virus expert and signatory of the letter.

Updated

May 17, 2021 at 11:35 a.m. ET

“It would be helpful if they ran a public service messaging campaign to promote this change more widely,” she said, especially in parts of the world where the virus is soaring. For example, in some East Asian countries, stacked toilet systems could transport the virus between the floors of a multi-story building, she noted.

Further research is also needed to determine how the virus moves indoors. Researchers at the Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory modeled the flow of aerosol-sized particles after a person in a three-room office with a central ventilation system had a five-minute coughing fit. Clean outside air and air filters reduce the flow of particles in this room, the scientists reported in April.

A rapid exchange of air – more than 12 in an hour – can move particles into connected rooms, just as second-hand smoke can pour into lower levels or nearby rooms.

“A lot more ventilation is a good thing for the source room,” said Leonard Pease, chemical engineer and lead author of the study. “But this air goes somewhere. Perhaps more ventilation is not always the solution. “

In the United States, the CDC’s license can cause the Occupational Safety and Health Agency to change its air quality regulations. Air is harder to hold and clean than food or water. However, OSHA already prescribes air quality standards for certain chemicals. The guide for Covid does not require ventilation improvement except in healthcare.

“Ventilation is really part of the approach OSHA takes to all airborne hazards,” said Peg Seminario, who served as the AFL-CIO’s director of safety and health at work from 1990 until her retirement in 2019 these approaches should apply to the air. “

In January, President Biden instructed OSHA to issue temporary emergency guidelines for Covid by March 15. OSHA missed the deadline, however: the draft is reportedly under review by the White House regulator.

In the meantime, companies can do as much or as little as they want to protect their workers. Citing concerns about the continuing shortage of protective equipment, the American Hospital Association, an industry trade group, endorsed N95 respirators for healthcare workers only during medical procedures known to produce aerosols or when in close contact with an infected person Patients have. These are the same guidelines that the WHO and CDC offered at the start of the pandemic. Face masks and plexiglass barriers would protect the rest, the association said in a March statement to the House Committee on Education and Labor.

“They are still stuck in the old paradigm, they have not accepted the fact that speaking and coughing often produce more aerosols than these so-called aerosol producing processes,” said Dr. Marr from the hospital group.

“We know plexiglass barriers don’t work,” she said and can actually increase the risk, possibly because they obstruct proper airflow in a room.

The improvements don’t have to be expensive: in-room air filters cost less than 50 cents per square foot, although a lack of supply has raised prices, said William Bahnfleth, professor of architectural engineering at Penn State University and head of the Epidemic Task Force at Ashrae ( the American Society for Heating, Cooling and Air Conditioning Engineers), which sets standards for such devices. UV light built into a building’s ventilation system can cost up to $ 1 per square foot. Those that are installed room-by-room perform better, but could cost ten times as much, he said.

If OSHA rules change, demand could lead to innovation and lower prices. There are precedents to believe that this could happen, according to David Michaels, a professor at George Washington University who served as OSHA director under President Barack Obama.

When OSHA tried to control exposure to a carcinogen called vinyl chloride, which is the building block of vinyl, the plastics industry warned about it threatening 2.1 million jobs. In fact, within a few months, companies have “actually saved money and not a single job has been lost,” recalls Dr. Michaels.

In either case, absentee workers and healthcare costs can prove more costly than ventilation system updates, the experts said. Better ventilation helps thwart not only the coronavirus but other respiratory viruses that cause influenza and colds, as well as pollutants.

Before people realized the importance of clean water, cholera and other water-borne pathogens claimed millions of lives worldwide each year.

“We live with colds and runny nose and just accept them as a way of life,” said Dr. Marr. “Maybe we don’t really have to.”

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Relentless Amazon has new plan to chop employee accidents by 50%

The working conditions in the Amazon warehouse and the injuries suffered by workers were a constant source of tension between the corporate giant and its critics. A new safety and wellness program will be rolled out at all US locations by the end of the year as Jeff Bezos’ company continues to add large numbers of new employees.

CHRIS J RATCLIFFE | AFP | Getty Images

Amazon is known for its relentless nature. Can this corporate approach, which has led to so much success, be successfully applied to workplace injury prevention? Amazon employees and the world are figuring out what could be the greatest experiment in safety culture in the workplace that has ever been conducted.

Amazon announced on Monday that WorkingWell, a program that provides physical, mental, and nutritional support to employees, will be rolled out across the U.S. operations network by the end of the year to reduce the frequency of reportable incidents – an OSHA measurement of injuries and Workers’ illnesses – by 50% by 2025. The company, which has faced criticism of working conditions due to its size and increased customer demand, is investing $ 300 million in safety projects this year without breaking the program specifically as part of that budget.

WorkingWell is not entirely new to Amazon employees, nor is it planned to reduce the injury rate. It was first piloted in 2019 and has already reached a large number of workers, 859,000 employees in 350 locations in North America and Europe. In Amazon’s latest earnings report, released in late April, the company said it was expanding the program, although it didn’t provide all the details. A company executive said never having offered all program components in all locations and hopes to reach 1,000 locations by the end of 2021 and then expand to Europe (where pilot locations exist) and beyond.

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“We want them to be healthy, safe and interested in Amazon and proud to work for them,” said Heather MacDougall, vice president, global health and safety at Amazon. Employee health and wellbeing “is not just a topic of conversation,” she said.

Amazon is adding new employees at a breakneck pace. The youngest employees include 75,000 workers in the United States and Canada. The retail, logistics, and tech giant hired large numbers of workers during Covid, more than 500,000 in 2020, and a common type of injury known as musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) – which was discussed by Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon , recently wrote extensively in an annual letter to shareholders – is associated with new employees.

About 40% of work-related injuries on Amazon are MSDs, including sprains or strains caused by repetitive motion. Bezos noted in the letter that the program helped reduce injuries caused by MSD by 32% from 2019 to 2020. Highlighting the problem of workers and work culture, Bezos wrote, “If you read some of the news you might think we don’t have any.” Care for the employees. ”

According to John Dony, Senior Director at the National Safety Council, MSD risk exposure can and should be measured and reduced. “Just as coaches are now preventing pitchers from throwing too many pitches in baseball and addressing their risk of injury from mechanics, employers can also help prevent MSDs in the workplace by systematically measuring exposure to MSD risk factors and by systematically measuring exposure to MSD risk factors and assessing workplace and health problems Redesign work items to limit them. ” Exposure to these risk factors, “said Dony.

Body, Mind, and Wellbeing of an Amazon Worker

Program elements that will be added in all US locations include daily meetings for operations managers and small groups of employees near workplaces so they can watch short interactive videos on topics such as grasping and manipulating, pushing and pulling, and feeding. Amazon calls them “Health & Safety Huddles”.

Experts say there isn’t a lot of data on video training, but when skilled on-site professionals teach staff positioning to avoid injuries and spot checks on the floor, it has been shown to work and it has become more popular for warehouse operations to employ coaches in recent years.

Among the more than 6,000 security employees at Amazon are certified sports trainers, so-called injury prevention specialists, who usually work in separate wellness centers, but also in buildings that offer individual coaching with employees and ergonomic adjustments to the workstation, a spokeswoman said by email.

Hourly prompts at workplaces encourage employees to engage in physical and mental activities that should not last longer than 30 to 60 seconds. However, the company says it can decrease muscle and mental fatigue and reduce the risk of injury. Experts say stretching is key to injury prevention, although most popular workplace programs that are successful run sessions of at least five minutes several times per shift.

Amazon will have dedicated spa areas in buildings dedicated to activities like volunteer stretching and interactive videos. Other aspects of the WorkingWell program include videos on mindfulness practices such as meditation, which will be available at interactive kiosks, as well as promoting healthier eating options and making them available to employees.

“We made hundreds of changes based on employee feedback,” said MacDougall of the new program, which will include a WorkingWell mobile app that is currently being developed to provide access to home wellness education and training.

Some Amazon ideas aren’t new, but the scale is new

Occupational safety experts say many of the elements of the new Amazon program are common features of workplace culture where safety is a priority. In many ways, it is the sheer size of the effort that is striking and can provide scientists and professionals with a new source of data on workplace injury prevention.

“I don’t know of any company with so many people doing this type of work at the same time,” said Deborah Roy, president of the American Society of Safety Professionals. “Just by the sheer numbers, there is a good chance that we can learn from their implementation if they collect data well and do comparisons in a controlled manner. … But we need to see the data published.”

Amazon said it was working with universities on research into workplace safety, including understanding the mechanisms behind MSD injuries, and it was working with health and safety experts, but an Amazon spokeswoman turned down formal plans for sharing of research to work out even though she said so is something the company is contemplating for the future.

I am not aware of any company with so many workers doing this type of work at once.

Deborah Roy, President of the American Society of Safety Professionals

New employees who are not conditioned to do their jobs may be the most susceptible to MSDs. However, as the largest tenant in the US, Amazon also faces the problem of an aging workforce that needs to be kept healthy in a tight and shrinking job market. “They want to take the time and spend the money upfront on new employees, get them to do the job right, and help them position themselves better,” said Roy, but added that existing, older employees ” If you do not.” If you don’t support this workforce, you won’t have new young people to take their place. We just don’t have volume in many parts of the country. “

Some of the technology-driven injury prevention ideas Bezos outlined in the letter, such as: B. Algorithms that allow employees to rotate through jobs continued to be used in a pilot phase, but are not part of this program.

Claims that Amazon has a high rate of work-related accidents have continued over the years, especially during times of high demand like the upcoming Prime Day. Amazon has also fought in the court system to keep some infringement records confidential. The company also recently faced a union formation vote at an Alabama site, in which union officials said injuries were a factor in helping their efforts.

A reduction in accidents at work by 50% is possible

Jeffrey Ku, an operations manager from Amazon provided to CNBC who has piloted several aspects of the program at one of its Denver facilities, “DEN2,” said he had no injury in the six months he was in his team was responsible for training.

“50% is doable,” said Roy. “There have been many organizations that have been able to do this. It is a focus and must be a value in this company.”

While it may seem like a high bar, according to OSHA’s own published studies, companies with the right safety management system should be able to reduce injury rates by 52%.

Roy saw the change firsthand and oversaw an inventory program that increased the operations of 12 out of 100 injured manual laborers to zero injuries over a two-year period. “It is to their advantage to address these issues,” she said. “The support of these people contributes to business results and productivity.”

Having offered “a lot of training for new hires,” Ku has found the short videos and even the shortest pauses to reset helpful. “I’m very adamant about safety, security, security,” he said.

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How a Colorado Campus Grew to become a Pandemic Laboratory

The CMU is also looking ahead, considering how they can customize Scout for the fall when many students get vaccinated and whether their new tools can slow the spread of other infectious diseases like the flu. “We spoke to Fathom on the phone a few days ago and had a dream about what the long game would be like,” said Dr. Bronson.

With the end of this weekend, Mr. Marshall, the soon-to-be President of the CMU, is pleased with the way the past year went. “I see it as a success, not a small one,” he said. “I think we will look back on this year as one of the defining moments for our university.” Yes, they had Covid-19 cases, he said, but they also had 881 freshmen who were the first in their family to go to college – who actually got to go to college.

“It was never about how to stop a virus?” Mr. Marshall said. Instead, the challenge is: “How do you deal with life while dealing with a pandemic? And in that regard, I’d say we did as good a job as anyone else. “

Lucas Torres, a biology student who graduated on Saturday, had initially been nervous about returning to CMU during a deadly pandemic. And it had become an extremely difficult year for him: During the winter break, he and some of his family members got Covid-19. His mother developed pneumonia and his grandmother died of the disease.

The school had turned out to be a bright spot. Mr. Torres was “inspired” by the CMU’s response and said, “It enabled the students to have a purpose. There was a responsibility, a shared responsibility, that returned to campus. “

Shortly after recovering from Covid-19, he proposed to his girlfriend. (She said yes.) He is about to take his EMT certification exam and hopes to go to medical school.

“I’ve made the most of my time at CMU and I’m glad they allowed it,” said Torres. “Even if it wasn’t the same as without Covid, it was better than sitting in front of a screen at home.”

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UK lifts lockdown however India Covid variant threatens June 21 easing

Busy bars and restaurants on Old Compton Street, Soho, in London in April 2021.

SOPA pictures | LightRocket | Getty Images

The UK continued easing restrictions on its economy and social contact on Monday, but the spread of the variant of Covid, which first appeared in India, threatens a total lifting of the measures.

From Monday, pubs, bars and restaurants will be able to serve customers inside. Museums, cinemas and theaters can be reopened; and exercise classes and indoor sports can be resumed. In addition, up to six people or two households can socialize indoors, and gatherings of up to 30 people are allowed outdoors.

International travel can also be resumed on Monday if people are allowed to participate in foreign holidays. Countries have been put on a “green”, “amber” or “red” list – with different quarantine rules for returning to the UK – determined by their infection rate.

While the reopening is a sigh of relief for the hospitality, leisure and travel industries, the lifting of restrictions will be tempered by a surge in Covid cases attributed to a variant of the coronavirus that first emerged in India.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called for a cautious approach to the reopening, warning that the proliferation of the new variant could threaten further easing on June 21 in hopes that all restrictions on social contact would be lifted.

On Friday, Johnson said there is currently no evidence that the variant is dodging Covid vaccines used across the country, but that the new variant “could seriously disrupt our progress … and I must stress that we will do this. ” whatever it takes to protect the public. “

He said the variant was more transmissible than other strains but cautioned it wasn’t clear by how much. UK Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty speaks next to Johnson, added that there was “confidence” that the strain was “more transferable” than other variants already circulating in the country.

In cases rise

The new variant is also believed to be more transferable than a variant that first launched in the UK last fall. This became the dominant strain in the country, along with the US and parts of Europe.

On Sunday, the UK reported just over 1,900 new cases, bringing the total number of infections registered in the UK to 4,450,777. As of Sunday, 15,918 cases had been reported in the past seven days, an 8.6% increase over the May 3-9 period, according to government figures.

This surge in cases has led the government to change its vaccination strategy. Those over 50 and those at risk will receive their second dose eight weeks after the first dose rather than 12 weeks according to the previous vaccination strategy.

It was announced on Friday that the UK would be running vaccinations and testing in areas where the new variant of Covid, first discovered in India, is spreading.

To date, nearly 70% of the UK adult population have received a first dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while just over 38% have received two doses. This UK reached the milestone on Sunday of giving 20 million people a second dose of a Covid shot.

UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the government would make a decision on June 14 whether to finally lift the restrictions a week later. Speaking to Sky News on Sunday, Hancock said variants are one of the “greatest risks to this opening”.

“Because of the speed of transmission, it can really spread like wildfire among the unvaccinated groups. So it is important to vaccinate as many people as possible, especially those most susceptible to hospitalization.”

– CNBC’s Matt Clinch contributed to this story.

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Many Unvaccinated Latinos within the U.S. Need the Shot, New Survey Finds

About 18 percent of Latino respondents said they did not yet have permanent residential status in the US. Although the Biden administration and local health authorities have reiterated that the recordings are available to everyone regardless of immigration status, more than half of this group said they were unsure whether they would be eligible for the recordings.

Updated

May 16, 2021, 9:09 p.m. ET

Nearly 40 percent of all unvaccinated Latinos who responded to the survey feared they would need to show government-issued ID in order to qualify. And about a third said they feared the shot would endanger either their immigrant status or that of a family member.

Many health departments have been taking increasingly inventive steps to attract Spanish speakers and reassure them that their immigration status will not be jeopardized, said Erin Mann, program manager for the National Resource Center for Refugees, Immigrants, and Migrants at the University of Minnesota, which guides communities on best practices advises to reach underserved people. This includes language-specific drive-on lanes for tests and vaccinations, running events in the evening, and telephoning health care workers to sign them up.

The survey results come from a nationally representative telephone poll conducted April 15-29 of 2,097 adults, including 778 English- and Spanish-speaking Latinos.

The report of the results also examined the disproportionate impact of the pandemic on Latino families, which explained their willingness to be vaccinated. About 38 percent of Latino adults said a relative or close friend had died from Covid-19, compared with 18 percent of white adults who said they had similar experiences. Two-thirds of adults in Latino said they feared either they or a relative could contract the coronavirus. Financial fears related to the pandemic have also plagued Latino families. Almost half said they had been economically affected, compared with about a third of white respondents who said so.

While about a third of non-vaccinated Latino adults wanted to get a shot as soon as possible, two-thirds hesitated and described themselves as waiting and seeing (35 percent) only when it was necessary for work (13 percent) or definitely not (17 percent). However, this group appeared to be accessible to incentive strategies, the report said. Better access would be helpful for them.

More than half of this group, overall hesitant and also busy, said they would get the chance if their employers gave them paid time off to recover from side effects, a rate almost three times as high like those of the white workers. (The Biden government has urged companies to take the action.) And 38 percent of that group would like to be vaccinated if their employer arranges for the shots to be distributed on site. Almost four in ten respondents said they would be more likely to get the shot if their employer offered a $ 200 incentive to do so.

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Eire needs distant working to now revive its rural cities

Terrace of historic shops and buildings, Skibbereen, County Cork, Ireland, Irish Republic. (Photo by: Geography Photos / Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Geography Photos | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

DUBLIN – In March the Irish government unveiled a plan to revitalize the country’s rural economy by encouraging more people to work remotely.

A longstanding challenge for rural Ireland has been migration to urban areas. With the shadow of the Covid-19 pandemic and what can be achieved through remote working, the Our Rural Future plan aims to encourage more people to stay in or move to non-urban areas.

The plan is to provide financial support to local authorities to convert vacant properties in cities into remote work centers. This includes a plan for “over 400 remote workplaces” across the country.

Grainne O’Keeffe has firsthand experience attracting people to a rural town. She heads the Ludgate Hub, a start-up collaboration and support organization in the small town of Skibbereen, about 80 km west of the city of Cork in southern Ireland.

Ludgate Hub – named after scientist Percy Ludgate – was founded in 2016 and has been a pioneer in rural start-up efforts.

O’Keeffe told CNBC that Ludgate is a practical example of attracting founders and employees to a small town.

It works in an old bakery and opens a second facility in an empty school building later that year. It has mostly drawn people whose startups have the option to work remotely, including the Eric Yuan-backed start-up Workvivo.

O’Keeffe said significant investments in physical infrastructure like high-speed broadband and the procurement of suitable buildings are key to making any city viable for remote working.

Skibbereen is connected to high-speed broadband through a Vodafone-owned company called Siro.

“This is without a doubt a game changer for any region. That is fundamental, as is a building that is conducive to a work environment,” she said.

The rural broadband connection was a regular mistake in Ireland. The government’s National Broadband Plan provides for the introduction of services in previously underserved areas, but has experienced a fair amount of delays. Other operators like Eir are in the middle of their own rural rollouts while Elon Musk’s Starlink is testing at a location in Ireland.

working environment

Garret Flower moved from Dublin to his hometown of Longford on the Central Plateau. He is the managing director of the software start-up ParkOffice, whose team of 15 has now been completely removed.

“The landscape has so much to offer,” he said. “I think remote working can really bring people back to the rural areas.”

But he also warned against excessive reliance on home work. As lockdowns eventually wear off, the availability of office space or desks in towns and villages will be a key component of any strategy, he said.

“Not everyone has a comfortable living area to work in. You can’t put this pressure on everyone to work from home. I grew up in the family home and it was a mess. I could never have worked with everyone there. ” in the house, “he said.

Separately, a government-funded start-up accelerator called NDRC, now operated by a consortium of business groups across the country, is focused on developing start-up ecosystems in different regions of the country.

One of its members is the RDI Hub, a facility in the town of Killorglin, County Kerry, in the southwest of the country.

“In Kerry we have traditionally had a very deeply rooted migration. People are leaving Kerry. It seldom happens that you stay, most people go to college, most go to start a job. Some come back, but they do The majority go and carry on. ” said Reidin O’Connor, the manager of RDI Hub.

Originally from the area, O’Connor moved with her partner and children from Dublin a few months before the pandemic.

She said the government’s efforts to create remote work centers need to focus not only on workers, but also on how they can be integrated into local communities.

“Hubs should be where your startups and your creatives work together. But you also have classes and it becomes the beehive of the community and this is where people gather,” she said.

PA Thompson | The image database | Getty Images

Housing and transportation

Housing construction is a persistent problem for the development of a region in Ireland. Before the pandemic, the housing shortage was a hot topic for a long time. However, since the outbreak of the pandemic, the problem has worsened as construction ceased.

Recently, institutional investing activity in the real estate market has generated much public contempt.

Ludgate’s O’Keeffe said that rural revitalization efforts are grappling with housing and that authorities such as county councils “need to recognize that the population is increasing and that housing is needed”.

O’Keeffe admits that transport links between rural towns like Skibbereen and nearby towns like Cork or further afield in Dublin are also challenges.

“It is certainly a problem we have for ourselves, this remoteness, but I think digital activation is reducing the physical divide,” she said, adding that narrowing the digital divide can help address deficiencies in the physical Fix infrastructure such as transport links.

Flower said there was a significant opportunity to revive large parts of the land that might otherwise be forgotten.

“A shipload of my friends in the last recession left for Australia and Canada and didn’t come back. We need to put pictures in people’s heads so they can come back and do these world-class jobs in remote areas of the country.”

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How the USA Beat the Coronavirus Variants, for Now

On December 29, a National Guard in Colorado became the first known case in the United States of a contagious new variant of the coronavirus.

The news was unsettling. The variant, named B.1.1.7, had upset Britain, began to grow in Europe, and threatened to do the same in the United States. And while scientists didn’t know it yet, other mutants began popping up across the country. These included variants that had ravaged South Africa and Brazil that appeared to bypass the immune system, as well as others that were native to California, Oregon, and New York.

This mixture of variants could not have come at a worse time. The nation was at the beginning of a spate of post-vacation cases that would dwarf any previous waves. And the spread of powerful vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech has been botched by chaos and misunderstandings. Scientists warned that the variants – and especially B.1.1.7 – could lead to a fourth wave and that the already strained health system could give way.

That didn’t happen. B.1.1.7 became the predominant version of the virus in the United States and now accounts for nearly three quarters of all cases. But the surge experts feared they were just a slip-up in most of the country. The nationwide total daily new cases began to decline in April and is now down more than 85 percent from horrific highs in January.

“It’s pretty humble,” said Kristian Andersen, a virologist at Scripps Research in La Jolla, California.

Dr. Andersen and other virus watchers still see variants as a potential source of problems in the coming months – especially one that has ravaged Brazil and is growing rapidly in 17 US states. But they are also taking stock of the past few months to better understand how the nation has evaded the variant threat.

Experts point to a combination of factors – masks, social distancing, and other restrictions, and possibly a seasonal decline in infections – that gave tens of millions of Americans crucial time to vaccinate. They also attribute a good dose of serendipity as B.1.1.7 is powerless against the vaccines unlike some of its competitors.

“I think we were lucky to be honest,” said Nathan Grubaugh, an epidemiologist at Yale University. “We are saved by the vaccine.”

After B.1.1.7 appeared at the end of December, new variants with combinations of disruptive mutations came to light. Scientists worried about how competition between the variants might develop.

In January, researchers in California discovered a variant with 10 mutations that was becoming more common there and drifting to other states. Laboratory experiments suggested that the variant of antibody treatment that had worked well against previous forms of the virus could be evaded, and that it was possibly more contagious as well.

In the months that followed, the United States dramatically improved its surveillance for the mutation of the variants. Last week, more than 28,800 virus genomes, nearly 10 percent of all positive test cases, were uploaded to an international online database called GISAID. This clearer picture has allowed scientists to observe how the mutants compete with each other.

The California variant proved a weak competitor, and its numbers fell sharply in February and March. It’s still common in parts of northern California, but it has virtually disappeared from the southern parts of the state and never gained a foothold anywhere else in the country. As of April 24, it made up only 3.2 percent of all virus samples tested in the country, while B.1.1.7 rose to 66 percent.

“B.1.1.7 went to knockout and it’s like ‘Bye bye, California variant’,” said Dr. Andersen.

Across the country, researchers reported in February that a variant called B.1.526 spread quickly in New York and appeared to be a formidable opponent for B.1.1.7. By February, each of these variants was down to about 35 percent of the Dr. Grubaugh’s Connecticut laboratory has grown. But B.1.1.7 has the edge.

Updated

May 16, 2021, 6:13 p.m. ET

In fact, B.1.1.7 seems to have an advantage over almost every variant identified so far. At a congressional hearing on Tuesday, Dr. Rochelle P. Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, that B.1.1.7 accounts for 72 percent of cases in the country.

“We really see how B.1.1.7 decisively pushes out other variants,” said Emma Hodcroft, epidemiologist at the University of Bern.

The variants identified in California and New York were found to be only moderately more contagious than older versions of the virus, and much of their initial success may have been luck. The general boom in cases last fall exacerbated what might otherwise have gone undetected.

It is unclear what gives B.1.1.7 an advantage over the others. “Is it the largest of all the variants? It’s hard to tell right now, ”said Angela Rasmussen, virologist at the University of Saskatchewan’s Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Organization. “We need more research to find out what all these combinations of mutations do.” Some of the answers may come from California, where researchers are holding a head-to-head competition in a laboratory and injecting mice with a cocktail of B.1.1.7 and six other variants.

“The idea is to see who will prevail,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, a virologist at the University of California at San Francisco, who was the first scientist to discover the California variant.

In Michigan, one of the few states to see an increase in projected cases this spring, B.1.1.7 found a catch in younger people returning to school and engaging in contact sports.

“Because it’s more transmissible, the virus finds behavioral cracks that normally wouldn’t have been as problematic,” said Emily Martin, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan.

But in the rest of the country, of course, people became more cautious when faced with the terrible numbers of the virus after the holidays. B.1.1.7 is thought to be about 60 percent more contagious than previous forms of the virus, but the way it spreads is no different. Most states had at least partial restrictions on indoor eating and introduced mask mandates.

“B.1.1.7 is more transferable but cannot jump through a mask,” said Dr. Hodcroft. “So we can still stop its spread.”

However, other experts are still concerned about how much the virus appears to have defied predictions.

“I can’t necessarily attribute it to behavior,” said Sarah Cobey, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Chicago. Respiratory viruses sometimes go through seasonal cycles, but it’s not clear why the coronavirus cycle would have caused it to go back in the middle of winter. “That might make me even more ignorant,” she said.

It is also puzzling why variants that have beaten other countries have not yet become widespread in the United States. B. 1,351 rapidly dominated South Africa and several other African countries late last year. It was first reported in the US on January 28, but it still only accounts for 1 percent of the cases. This may be because it is not ahead of the rapidly expanding B.1.1.7.

“I think that’s because it doesn’t really have much of a transmission benefit,” said William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health.

P.1, a variant that is devastating Brazil, got off to a sluggish start in the US but is now estimated to account for more than 10 percent of the country’s cases.

“I think it is a matter of time before the P.1 variant becomes one of the most widespread in the US,” warned Dr. André Ricardo Ribas Freitas, a medical epidemiologist at the Faculdade São Leopoldo Mandic in Brazil.

Still, Nels Elde, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Utah, said the events of the past four months had raised questions about whether it was worth fretting over different variations rather than focusing on the behaviors that can limit them all.

“We split the hair between a handful of mutations here and there, we lost perspective,” he said. “It’s catnip for an inquisitive mind.”

The United States also has a plethora of powerful vaccines that make variants an academic problem rather than a concern for the average person. The vaccines may be slightly less effective against the variants identified in South Africa and Brazil, but prevent serious illness in all known variants.

It is not impossible that the situation could get worse. Only about 35 percent of people in the United States are fully immunized, and protection from the vaccines could wear off by winter. Nobody knows how variants that appear in other parts of the world, like one that has grown in importance in India and is circulating at a low level in the US, will behave here. And even more variants will inevitably appear in places where the virus is widespread, warned Dr. Cobey: “There is still a lot to be done.”

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Instances rise however stay under Could 7 peak

Health workers with personal protective equipment care for Covid-19 patients in a banquet room that was temporarily converted into a Covid care center in New Delhi on May 7, 2021.

Prakash Singh | AFP | Getty Images

India’s total Covid-19 cases surpassed 24 million as the country battled a devastating second wave of infections that overwhelmed its healthcare system.

Government data released on Friday showed that 343,144 new cases were reported within 24 hours, killing at least 4,000 people. It was the third day in a row that the official death toll was 4,000 or more.

Even so, daily cases have remained below the record high of 414,188 reported on May 7, but the pressure in hospitals has not yet eased. Reports also suggest the virus is making the rounds in rural India, where experts have said the health system was not designed to handle a surge in cases.

A professor at the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, said Friday that daily cases in India may have peaked.

“According to our model, the number of new cases occurring every day has peaked and we are on our way down,” Manindra Agrawal, professor in the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, told CNBC’s Street Signs Asia. He added that India’s number of active cases is also “very close to its peak” and that this could happen in the next few days, after which the situation is likely to improve.

Together with two scientists, Agrawal wrote a mathematical model for pandemics called SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (Positive) and Removed Approach) to predict the spread of the coronavirus.

Previously, the model predicted that India’s second wave would peak in the third week of April and that daily cases would likely stay at 100,000. April was India’s worst month yet, with nearly 7 million officially reported cases while more than 48,000 people died. Experts have said the real number is likely much higher.

The scientists behind SUTRA then said the model’s shortcomings were due to the changed nature of the Covid-19 virus.

Agrawal told CNBC that the SUTRA model had predicted that the second wave would be of similar intensity to the first and would peak in late April.

“This is the feedback we’ve given the government,” he said, adding, “We’ve got the location or timing of the summit more or less right, but we haven’t adjusted the intensity right.”

“Nobody could really measure the intensity of the wave and that surprised us all,” added Agrawal.

Indian officials are already observing a possible third wave as the government seeks to ramp up its massive vaccination program by increasing vaccine production.

Chief Scientific Advisor to the Government of India, K. VijayRaghavan, said earlier this month a third wave was “inevitable given the higher number of viruses circulating”.

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Issues To Do At House

When 21 clock

Where livetalksla.org/events/michael_lewis

Find out what net zero emissions could look like in a discussion by The New York Times and Morgan Stanley. The Times’s Andrew Ross Sorkin joins Dame Ellen MacArthur, founder of the Ellen MacArthur Foundation. Matt Dwyer, vice president, product impact and innovation, Patagonia; and other experts to examine how the economy can transform in the fight against climate change. Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike will also meet with Motoko Rich, chief of the Times’s Tokyo office, to discuss the city’s plan to incorporate circular strategies into policy. Finally, Whitney Richardson, the Times international event manager, will speak to Alice Aedy, a documentary photographer and filmmaker, and Daiara Tukano, an indigenous activist and artist, about the impact of art on climate change awareness. Participation in this event is free and registration is required.

When 1:30 p.m.

Where nytimes.com/2021/04/30/climate/net-zero-circular-economy-climate-event.html

Immerse yourself in the work of the photographer Dawoud Bey, presented by the Whitney Museum of American Art. Josh Lubin-Levy, a senior lecturer for Joan Tisch at the Whitney Museum, will examine Mr. Bey’s work, which focuses on underrepresented and marginalized communities and their history. This event is free and registration is required.

When 12 o’clock

Where whitney.org/events/art-history-from-home-may-20-21

Commemorate the 50th anniversary of Marvin Gaye’s album “What’s Going On”. with a concert conducted by Grammy Award winner Christian McBride, followed by a conversation with those who knew Mr. Gaye best. His widow Janis Gaye and David Ritz, author of “Soul Divided: The Life of Marvin Gaye”, as well as music journalist Nelson George, writer and critic Angelika Beener and music director Steven Reineke will take part in the discussion. Tickets to this event, presented by 92Y, are priced at $ 15.

When 19 o’clock

Where 92y.org/event/marvin-gaye-what-s-going-on-at-50

Watch a conversation about eating in the Black Community and its impact on American culture. Carla Hall, a television chef on The Chew and author of Soul Food: Everyday and Celebration, and Tonya Hopkins, founder of The Food Griot, will discuss the history of black food and their personal memories associated with it. Presented by the New York Botanical Garden Humanities Institute, this event is free.

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Health

Dr. Scott Gottlieb agrees with new CDC masks steerage

The CDC’s updated face mask instructions are likely to induce vaccine-reluctant Americans to get a Covid shot, said Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Friday.

“This will be a pretty strong incentive for many people who may have been on the fence to get vaccinated to get vaccinated,” the former commissioner for the US Food and Drug Administration told Squawk Box.

In most indoor and outdoor areas, fully vaccinated people are currently not required to wear face covering or maintain a social distance of 6 feet from other people, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday. Masks still need to be worn in businesses that need them, according to the CDC, as well as on airplanes and public transportation.

Still, the health department’s laid-back demeanor is a major development in America’s efforts to fight the coronavirus. According to CDC data, 36% of the US population has been fully vaccinated against Covid. Approximately 47% of Americans have received at least one dose of Covid vaccine.

The pace of new vaccinations has slowed in recent weeks, causing government officials to look for ways to encourage more Americans to sign up for a Covid shot. This includes efforts to build trust in the vaccine, expand availability to hard-to-reach communities, and create incentives. In Ohio, for example, Governor Mike DeWine unveiled a plan that would give five state residents $ 1 million through a lottery. The recipient must be vaccinated to qualify for the prize.

According to Gottlieb, who headed the FDA in the Trump administration from 2017 to 2019, the loose guidance from the CDC alone could be enough to boost vaccinations. Today he is a board member of the vaccine manufacturer Pfizer.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the number of people getting vaccinated increases because now there is more value to vaccination. You can walk around in a mask in an honest way,” he said.

Gottlieb acknowledged the concerns of some public health experts who believe that unvaccinated people will use the new CDC guidelines as cover to forego a mask in businesses. However, he said, “I think people who are going to do this would have done it anyway.”

In general, Gottlieb said the CDC’s mask decision is now correct, as the country has seen a continued decline in new coronavirus infections and a significant portion of the population has been vaccinated to protect against serious illness and death.

He specifically pointed out the high vaccination rates among older Americans who are at increased risk of dying from Covid. Almost 72% of America 65+ is fully vaccinated.

“I think the worst thing you can say about the measures taken by the CDC is,” Well, maybe you could have waited another week, “said Gottlieb.” At some point we have to move past coronavirus and live normally again “he added.” We are at this point right now. We’re about to take off masks and return to normal activities. “

Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, told CNBC on Thursday that the new mask line was “really great news” for people who are fully vaccinated. However, Jha said he believes states should keep their inner mask mandates for another month. This would allow people who received their first Covid shot on April 19 – the day all U.S. citizens aged 18 and older were eligible – to get a full vaccination, he said.

Disclosure: Scott Gottlieb is a CNBC employee and a member of the boards of directors of Pfizer, genetic testing startup Tempus, healthcare technology company Aetion, and Illumina biotech. He is also co-chair of the Healthy Sail Panel for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Royal Caribbean.