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Lithium Mining Tasks Might Not Be Inexperienced Pleasant

Atop a long-dormant volcano in northern Nevada, workers are preparing to start blasting and digging out a giant pit that will serve as the first new large-scale lithium mine in the United States in more than a decade — a new domestic supply of an essential ingredient in electric car batteries and renewable energy.

The mine, constructed on leased federal lands, could help address the near total reliance by the United States on foreign sources of lithium.

But the project, known as Lithium Americas, has drawn protests from members of a Native American tribe, ranchers and environmental groups because it is expected to use billions of gallons of precious ground water, potentially contaminating some of it for 300 years, while leaving behind a giant mound of waste.

“Blowing up a mountain isn’t green, no matter how much marketing spin people put on it,” said Max Wilbert, who has been living in a tent on the proposed mine site while two lawsuits seeking to block the project wend their way through federal courts.

The fight over the Nevada mine is emblematic of a fundamental tension surfacing around the world: Electric cars and renewable energy may not be as green as they appear. Production of raw materials like lithium, cobalt and nickel that are essential to these technologies are often ruinous to land, water, wildlife and people.

That environmental toll has often been overlooked in part because there is a race underway among the United States, China, Europe and other major powers. Echoing past contests and wars over gold and oil, governments are fighting for supremacy over minerals that could help countries achieve economic and technological dominance for decades to come.

Developers and lawmakers see this Nevada project, given final approval in the last days of the Trump administration, as part of the opportunity for the United States to become a leader in producing some of these raw materials as President Biden moves aggressively to fight climate change. In addition to Nevada, businesses have proposed lithium production sites in California, Oregon, Tennessee, Arkansas and North Carolina.

But traditional mining is one of the dirtiest businesses out there. That reality is not lost on automakers and renewable-energy businesses.

“Our new clean-energy demands could be creating greater harm, even though its intention is to do good,” said Aimee Boulanger, executive director for the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, a group that vets mines for companies like BMW and Ford Motor. “We can’t allow that to happen.”

This friction helps explain why a contest of sorts has emerged in recent months across the United States about how best to extract and produce the large amounts of lithium in ways that are much less destructive than how mining has been done for decades.

Just in the first three months of 2021, U.S. lithium miners like those in Nevada raised nearly $3.5 billion from Wall Street — seven times the amount raised in the prior 36 months, according to data assembled by Bloomberg, and a hint of the frenzy underway.

Some of those investors are backing alternatives including a plan to extract lithium from briny water beneath California’s largest lake, the Salton Sea, about 600 miles south of the Lithium Americas site.

At the Salton Sea, investors plan to use specially coated beads to extract lithium salt from the hot liquid pumped up from an aquifer more than 4,000 feet below the surface. The self-contained systems will be connected to geothermal power plants generating emission-free electricity. And in the process, they hope to generate the revenue needed to restore the lake, which has been fouled by toxic runoff from area farms for decades.

Businesses are also hoping to extract lithium from brine in Arkansas, Nevada, North Dakota and at least one more location in the United States.

The United States needs to quickly find new supplies of lithium as automakers ramp up manufacturing of electric vehicles. Lithium is used in electric car batteries because it is lightweight, can store lots of energy and can be repeatedly recharged. Analysts estimate that lithium demand is going to increase tenfold before the end of this decade as Tesla, Volkswagen, General Motors and other automakers introduce dozens of electric models. Other ingredients like cobalt are needed to keep the battery stable.

Even though the United States has some of the world’s largest reserves, the country today has only one large-scale lithium mine, Silver Peak in Nevada, which first opened in the 1960s and is producing just 5,000 tons a year — less than 2 percent of the world’s annual supply. Most of the raw lithium used domestically comes from Latin America or Australia, and most of it is processed and turned into battery cells in China and other Asian countries.

“China just put out its next five-year plan,” Mr. Biden’s energy secretary, Jennifer Granholm, said in a recent interview. “They want to be the go-to place for the guts of the batteries, yet we have these minerals in the United States. We have not taken advantage of them, to mine them.”

In March, she announced grants to increase production of crucial minerals. “This is a race to the future that America is going to win,” she said.

So far, the Biden administration has not moved to help push more environmentally friendly options — like lithium brine extraction, instead of open pit mines. The Interior Department declined to say whether it would shift its stand on the Lithium Americas permit, which it is defending in court.

Mining companies and related businesses want to accelerate domestic production of lithium and are pressing the administration and key lawmakers to insert a $10 billion grant program into Mr. Biden’s infrastructure bill, arguing that it is a matter of national security.

“Right now, if China decided to cut off the U.S. for a variety of reasons we’re in trouble,” said Ben Steinberg, an Obama administration official turned lobbyist. He was hired in January by ​Piedmont Lithium, which is working to build an open-pit mine in North Carolina and is one of several companies that have created a trade association for the industry.

Investors are rushing to get permits for new mines and begin production to secure contracts with battery companies and automakers.

Ultimately, federal and state officials will decide which of the two methods — traditional mining or brine extraction — is approved. Both could take hold. Much will depend on how successful environmentalists, tribes and local groups are in blocking projects.

On a hillside, Edward Bartell or his ranch employees are out early every morning making sure that the nearly 500 cows and calves that roam his 50,000 acres in Nevada’s high desert have enough feed. It has been a routine for generations, but the family has never before faced a threat quite like this.

A few miles from his ranch, work could soon start on Lithium Americas’ open pit mine that will represent one of the largest lithium production sites in U.S. history, complete with a helicopter landing pad, a chemical processing plant and waste dumps. The mine will reach a depth of about 370 feet.

Mr. Bartell’s biggest fear is that the mine will consume the water that keeps his cattle alive. The company has said the mine will consume 3,224 gallons per minute. That could cause the water table to drop on land Mr. Bartell owns by an estimated 12 feet, according to a Lithium Americas consultant.

While producing 66,000 tons a year of battery-grade lithium carbonate, the mine may cause groundwater contamination with metals including antimony and arsenic, according to federal documents.

The lithium will be extracted by mixing clay dug out from the mountainside with as much as 5,800 tons a day of sulfuric acid. This whole process will also create 354 million cubic yards of mining waste that will be loaded with discharge from the sulfuric acid treatment, and may contain modestly radioactive uranium, permit documents disclose.

A December assessment by the Interior Department found that over its 41-year life, the mine would degrade nearly 5,000 acres of winter range used by pronghorn antelope and hurt the habitat of the sage grouse. It would probably also destroy a nesting area for a pair of golden eagles whose feathers are vital to the local tribe’s religious ceremonies.

“It is real frustrating that it is being pitched as an environmentally friendly project, when it is really a huge industrial site,” said Mr. Bartell, who filed a lawsuit to try to block the mine.

At the Fort McDermitt Indian Reservation, anger over the project has boiled over, even causing some fights between members as Lithium Americas has offered to hire tribal members in jobs that will pay an average annual wage of $62,675 — twice the county’s per capita income — but that will come with a big trade-off.

“Tell me, what water am I going to drink for 300 years?” Deland Hinkey, a member of the tribe, yelled as a federal official arrived at the reservation in March to brief tribal leaders on the mining plan. “Anybody, answer my question. After you contaminate my water, what I am going to drink for 300 years? You are lying!”

The reservation is nearly 50 miles from the mine site — and far beyond the area where groundwater may be contaminated — but tribe members fear the pollution could spread.

“It is really a David versus Goliath kind of a situation,” said Maxine Redstar, the leader of the Fort McDermitt Paiute and Shoshone Tribes, noting that there was limited consultation with the tribe before the Interior Department approved the project. “The mining companies are just major corporations.”

Tim Crowley, a vice president at Lithium Americas, said the company would operate responsibly — planning, for example, to use the steam from burning molten sulfur to generate the electricity it needs.

“We’re answering President Biden’s call to secure America’s supply chains and tackle the climate crisis,” Mr. Crowley said.

A spokesman noted that area ranchers also used a lot of water and that the company had purchased its allocation from another farmer to limit the increase in water use.

The company has moved aggressively to secure permits, hiring a lobbying team that includes a former Trump White House aide, Jonathan Slemrod.

Lithium Americas, which estimates there is $3.9 billion worth of recoverable lithium at the site, hopes to start mining operations next year. Its largest shareholder is the Chinese company Ganfeng Lithium.

The desert sands surrounding the Salton Sea have drawn worldwide notice before. They have served as a location for Hollywood productions like the “Star Wars” franchise.

Created by flooding from the Colorado River more than a century ago, the lake once thrived. Frank Sinatra performed at its resorts. Over the years, drought and poor management turned it into a source of pollutants.

But a new wave of investors is promoting the lake as one of the most promising and environmentally friendly lithium prospects in the United States.

Lithium extraction from brine has long been used in Chile, Bolivia and Argentina, where the sun is used over nearly two years to evaporate water from sprawling ponds. It is relatively inexpensive, but it uses lots of water in arid areas.

The approach planned at the Salton Sea is radically different from the one traditionally used in South America.

The lake sits atop the Salton Buttes, which, as in Nevada, are underground volcanoes.

For years, a company owned by Berkshire Hathaway, CalEnergy, and another business, Energy Source, have tapped the Buttes’ geothermal heat to produce electricity. The systems use naturally occurring underground steam. This same water is loaded with lithium.

Now, Berkshire Hathaway and two other companies — Controlled Thermal Resources and Materials Research — want to install equipment that will extract lithium after the water passes through the geothermal plants, in a process that will take only about two hours.

Rod Colwell, a burly Australian, has spent much of the last decade pitching investors and lawmakers on putting the brine to use. In February, a backhoe plowed dirt on a 7,000-acre site being developed by his company, Controlled Thermal Resources.

“This is the sweet spot,” Mr. Colwell said. “This is the most sustainable lithium in the world, made in America. Who would have thought it? We’ve got this massive opportunity.”

A Berkshire Hathaway executive told state officials recently that the company expected to complete its demonstration plant for lithium extraction by April 2022.

The backers of the Salton Sea lithium projects are also working with local groups and hope to offer good jobs in an area that has an unemployment rate of nearly 16 percent.

“Our region is very rich in natural resources and mineral resources,” said Luis Olmedo, executive director of Comite Civico del Valle, which represents area farm workers. “However, they’re very poorly distributed. The population has not been afforded a seat at the table.”

The state has given millions in grants to lithium extraction companies, and the Legislature is considering requiring carmakers by 2035 to use California sources for some of the lithium in vehicles they sell in the state, the country’s largest electric-car market.

But even these projects have raised some questions.

Geothermal plants produce energy without emissions, but they can require tens of billions of gallons of water annually for cooling. And lithium extraction from brine dredges up minerals like iron and salt that need to be removed before the brine is injected back into the ground.

Similar extraction efforts at the Salton Sea have previously failed. In 2000, CalEnergy proposed spending $200 million to extract zinc and to help restore the Salton Sea. The company gave up on the effort in 2004.

But several companies working on the direct lithium extraction technique — including Lilac Solutions, based in California, and Standard Lithium of Vancouver, British Columbia — are confident they have mastered the technology.

Both companies have opened demonstration projects using the brine extraction technology, with Standard Lithium tapping into a brine source already being extracted from the ground by an Arkansas chemical plant, meaning it did not need to take additional water from the ground.

“This green aspect is incredibly important,” said Robert Mintak, chief executive of Standard Lithium, who hopes the company will produce 21,000 tons a year of lithium in Arkansas within five years if it can raise $440 million in financing. “The Fred Flintstone approach is not the solution to the lithium challenge.”

Lilac Solutions, whose clients include Controlled Thermal Resources, is also working on direct lithium extraction in Nevada, North Dakota and at least one other U.S. location that it would not disclose. The company predicts that within five years, these projects could produce about 100,000 tons of lithium annually, or 20 times current domestic production.

Executives from companies like Lithium Americas question if these more innovative approaches can deliver all the lithium the world needs.

But automakers are keen to pursue approaches that have a much smaller impact on the environment.

“Indigenous tribes being pushed out or their water being poisoned or any of those types of issues, we just don’t want to be party to that,” said Sue Slaughter, Ford’s purchasing director for supply chain sustainability. “We really want to force the industries that we’re buying materials from to make sure that they’re doing it in a responsible way. As an industry, we are going to be buying so much of these materials that we do have significant power to leverage that situation very strongly. And we intend to do that.”

Gabriella Angotti-Jones contributed reporting.

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Business

Covid vaccine makers’ shares seesaw after U.S. says it would again patent waivers

A healthcare worker fills a syringe with the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine. At the Giorgio Companies site in Blandon, PA where the CATE Mobile Vaccination Unit was on site to deliver Moderna COVID-19 vaccines to workers on Wednesday morning April 14, 2021.

Ben Hasty | MediaNews Group | Getty Images

Stocks of two Covid vaccine makers fluctuated Thursday after the Biden government announced it would support a motion before the World Trade Organization to forego patent protection for the mRNA technology used to manufacture the vaccines.

Pfizer was down as much as 5% on Thursday from Wednesday’s close of trading, while Moderna fell nearly 12% before both stocks made up for most of those losses. The companies use the same mRNA technology to make their recordings.

Pfizer, which makes its Covid-19 vaccine with German pharmaceutical company BioNTech, closed about 1% that day, while Moderna lost about 1.4% that day.

South Africa and India are urging US officials and the WTO to temporarily forego patent protection so developing countries can manufacture life-saving vaccines until world leaders can bring the pandemic under control. Human rights organizations such as Doctors Without Borders, Oxfam and Amnesty International have all signed letters in support of the proposal.

US sales representative Katherine Tai released a statement Wednesday evening in support of the waiver.

“This is a global health crisis and the extraordinary circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic call for extraordinary measures,” she said. “The government firmly believes that protecting intellectual property, but in the service of ending this pandemic, supports the removal of this protection for COVID-19 vaccines.”

Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel told investors on a earnings call Thursday that he had “not lost a minute of sleep” on the news and said traders’ concerns were false.

Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca both use an adenovirus, a common type of virus that typically causes mild cold symptoms, to make their Covid vaccines. The stocks of these two companies barely changed on Thursday.

President Joe Biden made an election promise last year to “absolutely positively” renounce vaccination patents. The waiver of patent protection can take months or even years.

Critics of the move say that developing countries do not have the infrastructure to produce the vaccines, others disagree.

Analysts largely shook off the news.

“We believe a new manufacturing operation can take 6 to 9 months to scale up, effectively limiting the impact of other manufacturers. While we expect the headlines to put pressure on MRNA, we don’t see any significant practical impact from this news,” said the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research report Thursday.

Bank of America analysts cited “obstacles to vaccine development, including sourcing raw materials, developing manufacturing and engineering know-how.” They also note that “US support does not mean approval when WTO decisions require consensus and other members such as the EU, UK, Japan and Switzerland are currently opposed to surrendering intellectual property.”

The German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke out against the exemptions together with these countries on Thursday. “The limiting factor in the manufacture of vaccines is the production capacity and high quality standards, not the patents,” a Merkel spokeswoman said in a statement.

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, did not accept the waiver plan and stated in a speech that she was “ready to discuss proposals that would address the crisis in an effective and pragmatic way”.

Both Pfizer and Moderna already have plans to produce billions of cans in the meantime, leaving essentially all competitors far behind in the manufacturing process.

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S.E.C. Chair Gensler Emphasizes Transparency in Markets

Gary Gensler puts market transparency and the need to understand the impact of new technology high on his priority list as the new chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

“I think transparency is at the heart of efficient markets,” said Gensler on his first Capitol Hill testimonial as the country’s top securities cop.

Speaking from his living room, Mr. Gensler video appeared before the House Committee on Financial Services to discuss the SEC’s response to the tumultuous trading of GameStop stock in January. The massive surge in the video game company’s stock price was fueled by retail investors who bought their stocks through Robinhood and other commission-free trading apps, and banded together on social media to inflict huge losses on a hedge fund that had bet on GameStop stocks would fall. Some investors who bought GameStop stock at peak times later lost money.

Mr Gensler said SEC officials were working on a report addressing the issues raised by the episode, which will be released this summer. He also said new rules might be needed for brokerage apps that turn stock trading into a game or competition, a method called gamification.

“Through gamification, you are using psychological props to get people to act more,” Gensler said. Apps that encourage easy trading are part of a wider financial transformation where new technologies have opened markets to ordinary investors, but they also bring new risks, he said.

Mr. Gensler used his appearance to speak on other issues facing the markets and Wall Street. He said the SEC needs to “lean in” to ensure that traders, corporations and others are not using social media to manipulate the markets. Mr Gensler said he plans to work with Congress to develop a strategy to regulate the exchanges on which cryptocurrencies are bought and sold.

Legislators took the opportunity to invite Mr. Genslers’ views on a number of other issues, including whether companies should be required to disclose the environmental impact of their business and whether new regulations are needed for business development companies.

In business today

Updated

May 6, 2021, 11:23 a.m. ET

Mr Gensler, 63, reminded lawmakers that he was only his third week on the field and that while he had many things on his to-do list, he had some catching up to do on topics the SEC had already been working on.

In his prepared testimony, Mr Gensler said the staff who prepared the report on GameStop were also looking into whether professional investors who bet that stocks will fall – meaning keeping them short – should be required to disclose .

Mr Gensler said the collapse of Archegos Capital Management, which caused Wall Street banks to lose more than $ 10 billion, has led regulators to consider whether traders should be required to disclose derivatives – the financial trading instruments which allowed Archegos to take massive positions in stocks without attracting any attention. Much of Archegos’ losses was attributed to the company’s heavy investment in total return swaps, a type of heavily leveraged derivative that can allow a trader to get exposure to a stock without actual ownership.

Mr Gensler’s tenure got off to a rocky start after Alex Oh, his enforcement director election, was forced to step down just days after his appointment because Paul, Weiss, the major law firm she had worked for, faced potential sanctions in a case in which she was heavily involved.

The hearing with Mr. Gensler was the third and last to deal with GameStop and the frantic trading in the House Financial Services Committee’s markets. The first hearing was held on February 18, when GameStop’s shares were trading around $ 40 per share after falling from a high of $ 347 per share. Since then, the stock has risen again, rising nearly 300 percent to $ 160 per share.

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How Apple’s newest iOS replace may assist Amazon’s rising advert enterprise

Ein illustratives Bild der Amazon Shopping App, das auf einem Handybildschirm vor einem alten (L) und einem neuen (R) Amazon Shopping App-Symbol auf einem Bildschirm angezeigt wird. Amazon hat sein neues Amazon Shopping-App-Symbol stillschweigend geändert und das blaue Band oben ersetzt, das einige ungünstige Vergleiche gezogen hat. Am Mittwoch, dem 3. März 2021, in Dublin, Irland.

Artur Widak | NurPhoto | Getty Images

Das Werbegeschäft von Amazon steigt rasant.

Die massive “andere” Geschäftskategorie des Unternehmens, bei der es sich hauptsächlich (aber nicht ausschließlich) um Werbeeinnahmen handelt, stieg im ersten Quartal um 77% auf 6,9 Mrd. USD.

Die jüngsten Datenschutzänderungen von Apple, die es den Nutzern erleichtern, Werbetreibende daran zu hindern, sie zu verfolgen, könnten das Wachstum des Unternehmens beschleunigen.

Amazon verfügt über eine enorme Menge an detaillierten Verbraucherdaten. Bis zum letzten Monat gab das Unternehmen an, mehr als 200 Millionen Mitglieder weltweit in seinem Prime-Programm zu haben. Mit dem Inkrafttreten der Änderungen der App-Tracking-Transparenz von Apple werden die Daten von Amazon wahrscheinlich zu einem selteneren und wertvolleren Gut für Vermarkter.

Durch die Änderungen von Apple an iOS 14.5 können iPhone- und iPad-Benutzer die Art der Nachverfolgung, mit der Werbetreibende Anzeigen gezielt ausrichten oder messen können, ob Anzeigen funktionieren, einfacher deaktivieren. Obwohl Amazon diese Aufforderung auch seinen Kunden zeigen muss, ist dies für den E-Commerce-Riesen weniger wichtig. Wenn Benutzer bei Amazon angemeldet sind, kann das Unternehmen weiterhin nachverfolgen, was sie in der App tun, welche Anzeigen sie gesehen, angeklickt oder gekauft haben, unabhängig davon, ob sich ein Benutzer angemeldet hat oder nicht.

Es ist noch nicht klar, wie sehr oder wie lange andere wichtige Akteure, die sich mehr auf Informationen von Drittanbietern verlassen (wie Facebook), von Apples Änderungen betroffen sein werden. Die Verantwortlichen der Werbeagenturen teilten CNBC mit, dass ihre Kundenbudgets größtenteils stabil bleiben, während sie abwarten, wie sich diese Änderungen auf die Leistung ihrer Kampagnen auswirken.

Viele in der Marketingwelt gaben jedoch an, Amazon und ähnliche datenreiche Anzeigenangebote von Unternehmen wie Walmart oder Target als zuverlässigen Weg zu betrachten, um die Art von Daten zu erhalten, auf die sie sich verlassen, um Anzeigen auszurichten und die Leistung zu messen. Aufgrund der starken Erstanbieterbeziehung von Amazon zu Verbrauchern kann Amazon weiterhin Aktivitäten über seine verschiedenen Immobilien hinweg sammeln. Wenn Käufer beispielsweise eine Anzeige auf Prime Video ansehen und später einen Kauf tätigen, sollte sie in der Lage sein, Marketingfachleuten diese Informationen anzubieten.

Mit diesem Status auf dem Markt scheint Amazon bereit zu sein, seine Rolle im Anzeigen-Ökosystem weiter auszubauen. Es könnte von seiner traditionellen Rolle als Ort, an dem Vermarkter von Konsumgütern bestimmte Produkte vorantreiben, zu einem potenziellen Kraftpaket für Markenwerbung werden.

Vertreter von Amazon lehnten es ab, sich zu den Änderungen an iOS 14.5 und den möglichen Auswirkungen auf die Werbeeinnahmen des Unternehmens zu äußern.

Was die Änderung von Apple für die Anzeigen von Amazon bedeutet

Apple hat letzte Woche iOS 14.5 veröffentlicht, ein regelmäßiges Update seines iPhone- und iPad-Betriebssystems. Das Update enthielt ein neues Framework, das den Benutzern mehr Transparenz und Kontrolle über Apps bietet, die sie für Werbezwecke verfolgen möchten.

Wenn Benutzer unter dem neuen iOS eine App öffnen, wird ein Popup-Fenster angezeigt, in dem sie gefragt werden, ob die App auf ihre eindeutige Geräte-ID für Werbetreibende zugreifen kann. In diesem Popup werden Sie gefragt, ob sie nachverfolgt werden möchten, und es wird angezeigt, warum Sie sich für die App anmelden möchten. Beispielsweise könnte eine App anzeigen, dass Sie Anzeigen erhalten, die für Ihre Interessen relevanter sind, wenn Sie die Nachverfolgung zulassen.

Die Auswirkungen dürften variieren. Im Januar veröffentlichte MKM Partners eine Studie, die auf einem Rahmen basiert, um das IDFA-Risiko für Online-Unternehmen anhand von sieben Faktoren zu bestimmen. Von den untersuchten Unternehmen würde Amazon zu den niedrigsten Risikopositionen gehören, sagten sie.

Experten sehen die “ummauerten Gärten” von Facebook, Google und Amazon größtenteils weniger unter den Veränderungen in der Branche. Obwohl Werbung einen Großteil der Daten verliert, auf die sich die Spieler verlassen haben, haben die großen immer noch Daten darüber, was die Leute auf ihren eigenen Grundstücken tun.

Aber selbst auf der Ebene der ummauerten Gärten hängen die Auswirkungen ab, und soziale Netzwerke verfügen möglicherweise über weniger Daten, die Vermarkter benötigen als ein E-Commerce-Player wie Amazon.

“Nicht alle ummauerten Gärten sind gleich”, sagte Shane McAndrew, Chief Data Strategy Officer von Mindshare.

Wenn es um die Brot-und-Butter-Anzeigenprodukte von Amazon geht – Anzeigen, mit denen Unternehmen Placements auf Amazon-Websites und -Apps kaufen können -, werden Werbetreibende wahrscheinlich nur geringe Auswirkungen haben, sagte Will Tjernlund, Chief Marketing Officer von Goat Consulting, einem Unternehmen, das sich auf Marken konzentriert Verkauf bei Amazon.

“Die traditionellen, älteren Werbeprodukte bei Amazon werden keine Wirkung zeigen. Sie sollten genauso gut wie normal sein”, sagte Tjernlund. “Da sie Amazon-eigene Daten verwenden, ziehen sie Menschen auf Amazon-eigenen Websites oder eigenen Apps an.”

Wenn Benutzer über verschiedene Amazon-Eigenschaften angemeldet sind, sollten diese Daten nicht beeinträchtigt werden. Wenn beispielsweise jemand bei der kommenden IMDb TV-App von Amazon angemeldet war, können diese Daten für Marketingzwecke in der Amazon-App verwendet werden, selbst wenn dieser Benutzer die Freigabe seiner Anzeigenkennung auf seinem Telefon deaktiviert hat.

“All diese Daten sind ein faires Spiel für die Ausrichtung von Anzeigen auf Amazon-Nutzer in Amazon-eigenen Immobilien”, sagte Eric Seufert, Analyst und Inhaber der Website Mobile Dev Memo.

Wenn Werbetreibende in einer Post-IDFA-Welt auf Schwierigkeiten mit Amazon stoßen könnten, handelt es sich um Anzeigenprodukte des Unternehmens, die eine externe Nachverfolgung beinhalten und keinen großen Teil seines Geschäfts ausmachen.

Beispielsweise hat Amazon möglicherweise Probleme mit seiner nachfrageseitigen Plattform, mit der Werbetreibende Verbraucher sowohl auf Amazon-Websites als auch auf Websites von Drittanbietern erreichen können.

Amazon teilt die Einnahmen für seine verschiedenen Produkte nicht öffentlich auf, aber Experten glauben, dass Anzeigen, die außerhalb der Website geschaltet werden, einen relativ kleinen Teil seines Anzeigengeschäfts ausmachen. EMarketer schätzt, dass 89% der Nettoeinnahmen von Amazon in Bezug auf digitale Anzeigen in den USA aus E-Commerce-Kanalanzeigen stammen, was bedeutet, dass Anzeigen vor Ort wahrscheinlich die überwiegende Mehrheit ausmachen.

Nach den Änderungen von Apple und Google, die planen, Tracking-Cookies von Drittanbietern zu verwerfen, wird das Tracking außerhalb der Website nicht so einfach sein.

“Es wird eine Herausforderung für sie sein, Medien außerhalb des Unternehmens mithilfe ihrer Daten von ihrem Grundstück zu kaufen. Wir wissen, dass dies ein Problem auf dem Desktop und auf Mobilgeräten sein wird”, so Forrester senior Analyst Collin Colburn sagte. “Der Gegenwind wird sicherlich außerhalb des Geländes sein, eine Kategorie, die sie zu wachsen versucht haben.”

Die Pandemie und der Aufstieg der “Einzelhandelsmedien”

Amazon steht an der Spitze eines weiteren Marketingtrends.

Da so viele Verbraucher zu Hause waren und zu Beginn der Pandemie nicht in Geschäften einkauften, suchten Marken nach noch mehr Informationen darüber, wer ihre Kunden sind und wie sie einkaufen.

Walmart, Target, CVS, Kroger und eine Reihe anderer Unternehmen bieten Anzeigenangebote im Bereich “Einzelhandelsmedien” an – die Möglichkeit, Anzeigen auf Produkte auszurichten, bei denen Verbraucher sie tatsächlich auf diesen Websites kaufen. Forrester Research schätzt, dass Marken im Jahr 2020 mindestens 5 Milliarden US-Dollar für Einzelhandelsmedien ausgegeben haben. Obwohl einige dieser Angebote seit Jahren bestehen, haben sich Einzelhändler wie Walmart in der Region verdoppelt.

“Es boomt. Ich meine, es ist zu diesem Zeitpunkt absolut riesig”, sagte Colburn. “Wir haben sehr konservativ gesagt, dass Marken im Jahr 2020 mindestens 5 Milliarden US-Dollar für Einzelhandelsmedien ausgegeben haben. Es ist viel mehr als das.”

In einer Welt, in der es Werbetreibenden schwerer fällt, Verbraucher über Websites hinweg zu verfolgen, bieten Einzelhandelsmedienlösungen eine Möglichkeit, am Kaufort mehr Einblicke zu erhalten.

“Das Problem ist, wenn Sie auf eine Google-Anzeige oder eine Facebook-Anzeige klicken und nicht wissen, ob diese konvertiert wird oder nicht”, sagte der ehemalige Amazon-Mitarbeiter und CEO von CommerceIQ Guru Hariharan. CommerceIQ berät Marken in ihrem Amazon-Geschäft. “Sie wissen, dass es angeklickt wurde, aber Sie wissen nicht, wer darauf geklickt hat. Wir sehen also, wie sich ein Haufen dieser Dollars bewegt.”

Nach den Änderungen von Apple “wird die Fähigkeit für mich, Sie als Profil oder Verbraucher anzusprechen, verringert, was bedeutet, dass es noch weniger messbar wird, während Amazon und Walmart immer messbarer werden”, sagte Hariharan. “Wenn Sie General Mills sind, wird Walmart für Sie viel interessanter, weil der Einkauf von Lebensmitteln immer noch mehr bei Walmart als bei Amazon stattfindet.”

Den Trichter nach oben bewegen

Werbetreibende möchten wissen, dass sie auf ihre Kosten kommen. Selbst wenn sie große Branding-Anstrengungen unternehmen, die einen Verbraucher nicht unbedingt dazu drängen, ein Paar Shorts zu kaufen oder sofort eine App herunterzuladen, möchten sie wissen, dass die Werbung etwas bewirkt hat. Marken suchen möglicherweise nach Werbeumgebungen, die ihnen diese Antworten geben, sobald diese Fähigkeit schwieriger wird und sie sich nicht mehr auf so viele Daten von Drittanbietern verlassen können. Amazon positioniert sich mit seinen umfangreichen Datenbeziehungen von Erstanbietern zu so vielen Verbrauchern zunehmend als eine Lösung.

Das boomende Werbegeschäft von Amazon wird derzeit hauptsächlich von kauforientierter Werbung angetrieben. Dies schließt “niedrig hängende Früchte” wie gesponserte Anzeigen bei der Suche oder an anderer Stelle auf der Website ein, sagte Aaron Goldman, Chief Marketing Officer von Mediaocean. Aber Amazon setzt sich zunehmend auch für markenorientiertere Werbung ein, was das Wachstum erheblich beschleunigen könnte.

Amazon hat bereits signalisiert, dass es seine Markenwerbeinitiativen vertieft. Während seiner Eröffnungspräsentation von NewFronts am Montag hob das Unternehmen die Möglichkeiten für Vermarkter hervor, seine Videoeigenschaften zu nutzen, darunter die Streaming-Plattformen Prime Video, IMDb TV und Twitch sowie Veranstaltungen mit großen Eintrittskarten wie “Thursday Night Football”. Zu diesem Zweck erreicht der werbefinanzierte Videoinhalt von Amazon mittlerweile mehr als 120 Millionen Zuschauer pro Monat.

Vermarkter und Branchenanalysten sagten gegenüber CNBC, dass es nicht lange dauern wird, bis Amazon auch die Audiowerbung hochfährt. Das sagte das Unternehmen letzten Monat auf dem jährlichen Führungstreffen des Interactive Advertising Bureau, bei dem es über die bevorstehenden Schritte im Podcast-Werbebereich sprach. Das Unternehmen kann den kürzlich erfolgten Kauf des Podcasting-Start-ups Wondery und des werbefinanzierten Amazon Music-Dienstes nutzen, um zusätzliche Werbeeinnahmen zu erzielen, indem Marken neben Audioinhalten auch Anzeigen kaufen können.

Amazon baut auch Markenwerbung auf seiner zentralen E-Commerce-Plattform aus, indem gesponserte Videoanzeigen in der Suche geschaltet werden. Dies ist ein wertvolles Tool für kleine und große Unternehmen, die Produkte bei Amazon verkaufen.

“Ich denke, dies ist eine enorme Chance”, sagte McAndrew von Mindshare. “Sie werden sehen, wie sie gezielt in den Bereich der Markenwerbung vordringen, wie sie es noch nie zuvor getan haben. Sie haben alle Zutaten”, um in diesem Bereich zu gewinnen, sagte er.

Aber in diesem Bereich gibt es noch viel zu tun, sagte Nicholas Seo, Markteinführungsdirektor von MightyHive.

“Für einige dieser kreativeren Formate, bei denen es sich mehr um Ausführungen und Integrationen handelt, muss im Backend viel Arbeit geleistet werden”, sagte er. “Ich denke, das Interesse ist definitiv da, zumindest von unseren Kunden, aber mehr noch, Amazon hat Prioritäten zu setzen, wo sie sich konzentrieren möchten. Aber wir sehen definitiv eine Menge Dinge auf dieser Seite.”

Und es könnte ein noch höheres Wachstum fördern.

“Ich denke immer noch, dass sie aufgrund der direkten Reaktion um 70% weiter wachsen können. Ich denke, dass sie nördlich von 100% wachsen können, sobald sie die Markenchance vollständig monetarisieren”, sagte Goldman und wies auf Möglichkeiten wie Video- und Audio-Anzeigen hin.

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Unemployment claims fell sharply final week.

Unemployment records fell again last week as the improving public health situation and the easing of pandemic-related restrictions allowed the labor market to continue its gradual return to normal.

About 505,000 people were filing applications for state unemployment benefits for the first time, the Labor Department said Thursday, down more than 100,000 from a week earlier. In addition, 101,000 people applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a federal program for freelancers, self-employed and other people who are not entitled to regular benefits. None of the figures are seasonally adjusted.

Claims for unemployment benefits remain high by historical standards, but have fallen significantly in recent weeks after progress stalled in the fall and winter. Weekly claims for government benefits, which peaked at more than six million last spring, fell below 700,000 for the first time at the end of March and have now been below that level for four consecutive weeks.

“In the past few weeks, claims data has improved dramatically, and I think this suggests that the labor market recovery accelerated in April,” said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor (not ZipRecruiter as reported earlier here) has been).

By mid-April, more than nine million people were still receiving unemployment insurance through government programs – or emergency programs to extend government benefits – the latest available data. That amount, which does not include workers on pandemic unemployment benefits, has declined in recent weeks, but at a slower pace than new claims. At the height of the crisis last spring, more than 20 million people were receiving benefits.

Economists should get a clearer picture of progress in the labor market on Friday when the Labor Department releases data on recruitment and unemployment in April. The report is expected to show employers created about a million jobs in the last month, up from 916,000 in March. The leisure and hospitality industry, which was hardest hit by the early stages of the pandemic last spring, has spearheaded the recovery in recent months, a trend that forecasters believe continued into April.

Even last month’s strong job growth will still weigh on the U.S. economy with millions fewer jobs than it did before the pandemic. Forecasters expect the report to show the unemployment rate fell below 6 percent in April, compared to nearly 15 percent last spring. However, this does not take into account people – especially women – who have left the workforce, including those who look after children while schools are closed. If these people had been counted as unemployed, the unemployment rate would have been above 9 percent in March and most likely near that level in April.

Many employers have said in the last few weeks that they want to hire even faster but are having difficulties finding enough workers. Some have blamed increased unemployment benefits for preventing people from returning to work. On Tuesday, Montana Governor Greg Gianforte said his state would be pulling out of a federal program that provides improved benefits to unemployed workers and instead pay recipients a $ 1,200 bonus when they find new jobs.

Economic research has shown that unemployment benefits can reduce the intensity of job search for workers. However, most studies find that the overall labor market impact is small, especially when unemployment is high. And Mr. Zhao and other economists say there are other reasons why labor supply is recovering more slowly than demand. Many potential employees are juggling childcare or other chores at home. others remain cautious about the health risks of returning to personal work.

“I think we will see that the labor supply will improve quite dramatically in the coming months as the pandemic subsides,” Zhao said.

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Every day U.S. knowledge on Could 6

A sign on site instructs people to get their COVID-19 vaccine at the UCI Health Family Health Center in Anaheim, California on Wednesday April 28, 2021.

Paul Bersebach | MediaNews Group | Orange County Register via Getty Images

According to data released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, more than 70% of Americans aged 65 and over are fully vaccinated.

CDC data shows that an average of 2.1 million vaccinations per day were reported for the past week, up from a high of 3.4 million in mid-April.

At the same time, the rate of new infections continued to decline. About 46,600 new cases are reported daily in the US, based on a 7-day average from Johns Hopkins University data, the lowest since the fall.

US percentage of the vaccinated population

About 45% of Americans have received at least one dose of vaccine, and nearly a third are fully vaccinated, CDC data shows.

These numbers are much higher among seniors, one of the most vulnerable groups for whom vaccination eligibility was opened the earliest. 83% are at least partially vaccinated and more than 70% are fully vaccinated.

President Joe Biden set a goal on Tuesday to get 70% of adults in the US to receive at least one dose of a Covid vaccine by July 4th. By Wednesday, around 57% of adults had done this.

US vaccine shots administered

With 1.8 million vaccinations reported Wednesday, the last 7-day average of daily shots given is 2.1 million per day, according to CDC data.

The rate of reported daily vaccinations has been falling for weeks, down 37% from its peak a few weeks ago.

US Covid cases

The U.S. reports an average of 46,600 new infections per day over the past seven days, an 11% decrease from the previous week, according to Hopkins.

In more than half of the states, the number of cases per day has decreased by at least 5% in the past week.

The CDC said Wednesday that its projections show that US cases are likely to pick up again due to the highly contagious variant B.1.1.7, which peaked in May and then fell sharply in July.

High vaccination rates and adherence to pandemic safety measures “are essential to control COVID-19 and prevent an increase in hospital stays and deaths in the coming months,” the federal health authorities wrote in the report.

US Covid deaths

The latest seven-day US death toll from Covid is 686, according to Hopkins data, and the total death toll over the course of the pandemic is nearly 580,000.

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Jobless Claims Knowledge Anticipated to Present Progress: Dwell Updates

Recognition…Saul Martinez for the New York Times

Government data from Thursday is expected to show that new government claims to unemployment insurance have continued to decline over the past week as the improving public health situation and easing of pandemic-related restrictions allowed the labor market to continue its gradual normalization .

Claims for unemployment benefits remain high by historical standards, but have fallen significantly in recent weeks after progress stalled in the fall and winter. The weekly requests for government benefits, which peaked last spring of more than six million, fell below 700,000 for the first time at the end of March; Economists expect the Department of Labor to report Thursday that filings have fallen below 600,000 for the third year in a row.

“In the past few weeks, claims data has improved dramatically, and I think this suggests that the labor market recovery accelerated in April,” said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

Economists should get a clearer picture of progress in the labor market on Friday when the Labor Department releases data on recruitment and unemployment in April. The report is expected to show employers created about a million jobs in the last month, up from 916,000 in March. The leisure and hospitality industry, which was hardest hit during the early stages of the pandemic last spring, has led the recovery in recent months, a trend that forecasters believe continued into April.

Many employers have said in the last few weeks that they want to hire even faster but are having difficulties finding enough workers. Some have blamed increased unemployment benefits for preventing people from returning to work. On Tuesday, Montana Governor Greg Gianforte said his state would be pulling out of a federal program that provides improved benefits to unemployed workers and instead pay recipients a $ 1,200 bonus when they find new jobs.

Economic research has shown that unemployment benefits can reduce the intensity of job search for workers. However, most studies find that the overall labor market impact is small, especially when unemployment is high. And Mr. Zhao and other economists say there are other reasons why labor supply is recovering more slowly than labor demand. Many potential employees are juggling childcare or other chores at home. others remain cautious about the health risks of returning to personal work.

“I think we will see that the labor supply will improve quite dramatically in the coming months as the pandemic subsides,” Zhao said.

Tim Lorentz with the LaBoata in Spokane, Wash.Recognition…Allie Lorentz

Tim Lorentz, a special education teacher in Spokane, Washington, loves both cars and boats. He has driven cars and owned a variety of muscle and exotic vehicles.

“Car guys always want to own or drive a unique car that no one else owns,” said Lorentz. “I created a convertible with eight passengers. Why not a boat over a convertible? I’ve never seen one like this before. “

And so the LaBoata was born. Mr. Lorentz, now 65, built it in 2009 using a white 1993 LeBaron, a used 17-foot boat that he got for $ 100, reports Mercedes Lilienthal for the New York Times.

The LaBoata was “instantly funny,” he said until it received a letter from the Washington Department of Motor Vehicles canceling its registration and title. The authorities had noticed his converted convertible and were not amused. He removed the boat shell, drove the car to the DMV and had it rechecked, restored, and re-licensed. He went home and turned the boat back on, and since then he has had no problems.

Mr. Lorentz is part of a community that builds cars from scrap. 19-year-old Kelvin Odartei Cruickshank, who lives in Accra, Ghana’s capital, built a two-person car from the ground up that looks like a dilapidated DeLorean. It took three years to complete. Mr. Cruickshank used about $ 200 scrap metal and parts that are not normally used in automobiles for financial reasons.

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China journey bookings soar throughout Could Labor Day vacation as Covid eases

Visitors stroll along the Badaling section of the Great Wall of China in Beijing, China on Tuesday May 4, 2021.

Yan Cong | Bloomberg | Getty Images

BEIJING – Millions of Chinese rushed to travel over the five-day Labor Day holiday, another sign of a gradual recovery in domestic consumption.

May 1-5 was the “hottest” holiday travel holiday since the coronavirus pandemic, Chinese travel booking site Trip.com said in a statement translated by CNBC on Wednesday. The reappearance of Covid-19 on the outskirts of Beijing earlier this year prompted local authorities to restrict travel during the Spring Festival in February.

Labor Day vacation bookings for hotels, rental cars, and other trips have more than tripled from the same period last year and are up more than 30% since 2019, Trip.com said without disclosing the dollar amounts. According to Trip.com, the Shanghai Disney Resort was one of the top 10 travel destinations, even for 21 year olds and youngsters.

Chinese consumers spent 1.67 billion yuan ($ 260 million) on movies during the holidays, mostly domestic movies, according to Maoyan ticketing website.

In total, 230 million trips were made within the country during this period, an increase of almost 18% from 2019, according to the Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism.

However, the total spending of 113.23 billion yuan ($ 17.48 billion) was about 4 billion yuan lower than the 2019 spending, the data showed.

At that level, per capita spending during the holidays was around 75% of 2019’s spending, said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “Overall, the economic trend continues to improve, but part of the service sector is not yet at the pre-Covid level.”

Individual consumer spending lagged behind the recovery in the Chinese economy as Covid-19 forced more than half of the country to temporarily shut down in early 2020. Retail sales declined last year despite overall GDP growth before rising in the first quarter of 2021.

International travelers turn to Hainan

The rush to travel domestically comes with quarantine requirements, and travel bans keep most Chinese people from venturing overseas.

Chinese international travel is down 87% over the past year and is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until the second quarter of 2023, consulting firm Oliver Wyman said in a report last week.

That means billions of dollars not spent overseas could potentially be spent at home or saved for future purchases, the report said. Chinese consumers spent $ 245 billion overseas in 2019.

The analysis found that nearly 60% of these travelers migrate to the southern tropical island province of Hainan, which has expanded its duty-free shopping centers in recent years.

For high-end luxury brands, Hainan will be much more appealing to them if they can open their own stores in the future rather than through a duty-free operator.

Imke Wouters

Partner at Oliver Wyman

According to state media, duty-free sales in Hainan from May 1st to May 4th were over 700 million yuan, citing the latest available figures from the local customs authority. For comparison, an eight-day vacation in October saw duty-free sales of 1.04 billion yuan in Hainan.

“May is the first (moment when) you can really see the true potential of Hainan without travel restrictions,” said Oliver Wyman partner Imke Wouters in a telephone interview on Thursday.

However, she pointed out that brands are currently required to partner with duty free centers in Hainan. As a result, profitability could be up to 50% less than in-house branches on the mainland.

“For high-end luxury brands, Hainan will be much more appealing to them if they can open their own stores in the future rather than through a duty-free operator,” said Wouters.

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Biden Defends Plans to Tax the Wealthy

“Ultimately, its political standing is measured by the health and well-being of the economy,” said Josh Holmes, political advisor to Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader. “From a tax point of view, he speaks of suicide by the administration.”

In business today

Updated

May 5, 2021, 6:08 p.m. ET

But Mr. Holmes agreed that Mr. Biden would do a successful political calculation, at least in the short term. “He’s right that corporate tax increases aren’t unpopular,” said Holmes. But the political rationale for Republicans is that even in the midterm elections, politics will prove unpopular with American voters because of its impact on workers and the economy, he said.

Independent forecasters largely expect the economy to boom this year as the country reopens to economic activity due to Covid-19 vaccinations. The analyzes differ on how Mr Biden’s $ 4 trillion agenda could affect it. Penn Wharton Budget Model analysts predict the tax hikes would hurt overall growth. Wells Fargo forecasters wrote this week that Mr Biden’s infrastructure package, including the corporate tax increases that would fund it, would fuel growth for years to come.

The battle in Washington over Mr. Biden’s plans is a continuation of a battle that began under President Donald J. Trump, who signed a $ 1.5 trillion tax cut package in 2017. Democrats successfully portrayed the cuts as benefits to the rich, and they never reached the public popularity that Republican leaders envisioned. Republicans largely abandoned their plans to focus on the 2018 campaign tax cuts.

“There were far more Democratic ads than Republican ads,” said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster.

In many ways, these tax cuts have given Mr Biden an opportunity, Mr Garin said.

“When Biden talks about the corporate tax rate, he puts it in the context of withdrawing the 2017 corporate tax cut as opposed to a corporate tax hike out of the blue,” he said. “Polls suggest that support for the Biden proposal is even higher when you give the context of the 2017 corporate tax cut, which most voters believe is excessive and wasteful.”

White House officials also cite the 2017 law to explain their aggressive stance on the tax issue. “The pandemic has exposed huge inequalities in this country,” said Anita Dunn, a senior White House adviser. “Even before that, the 2017 tax cut was very unpopular.”

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Is it secure to journey this summer time or fall? Right here’s what consultants say

For some local travelers looking for a vacation, the question is not whether to book a vacation this year, but when.

The enthusiasm for travel is at its highest level in a year. According to a survey conducted last week by travel market research firm Destination Analysts, 87% of American travelers are expected to take a trip this summer.

But is summer the best time to go this year or is it advisable to wait? Doctors present various scenarios of how the rest of 2021 could develop.

1. A summer with low infection rates

Dr. Sharon Nachman, director of pediatric infectious diseases at Stony Brook Children’s Hospital, expects infection rates to be lower this summer than in winter.

“If I add the idea that children 12 and older also have access to vaccines this summer, the risk for families will continue to decrease, allowing more activity and less risk for everyone,” she said.

Dr. Anne Rimoin, professor of epidemiology at UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, said there was “a real chance for a summer with much lower disease rates. But that means we must all pull ourselves together and do our best.” Part “through vaccination, wearing masks, social distancing and hand hygiene.

Vaccinations are important for a safe summer trip, said Dr. Anne Rimoin of UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, despite finding they are “no guarantees” against infection.

Tetra Images / TGI | Tetra Pictures | Getty Images

Whether it is safe to travel this summer depends on two factors: vaccinations and variants.

“It all depends on how many vaccines we get our arms about,” said Rimoin. “The variants are more contagious, so … those who aren’t vaccinated are more likely to get infected.”

2. A good summer and a mild autumn

Former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” in April that he expected US infection rates to be “really low” this summer, likely leading to a “relatively mild decline” will lead.

Things might change after that, he said.

We’ll have to do things differently when we get into winter.

Scott Gottlieb

Former FDA commissioner

“I think we should think about late winter,” he said. “I think the overall death and disease from Covid will hopefully be reduced, but there is a chance they could spread again.”

Gottlieb said Covid-19 will “move from a more pandemic to a seasonal burden this year”. However, that could change if variants develop that can “penetrate” a previous immunity or vaccine, although he noted that “that’s not on the horizon right now.”

“I don’t think we’re going to be having Christmas parties on December 20th in the back room of a crowded restaurant,” he said. “I think we have to do things differently when we come into winter.”

“But I think that will be a fact for a few years,” said Gottlieb.

3. Flares and outbursts

Dr. Charles Bailey, medical director of infection prevention at Providence St. Joseph Hospital and Providence Mission Hospital, doesn’t see this summer as a safe time to travel before infections return in the fall as he expects the outbreaks to continue year round.

He anticipates the majority of the United States will continue on its path to normal while the areas will experience “episodic flare-ups – local and regional” hotspots “- of Covid activity by late 2021 and early 2022.”

Mark Cameron, epidemiologist and associate professor in the School of Medicine at Case Western Reserve University, does not see summer as a “window of opportunity for perfectly safe travel itself,” as he has concerns about last summer’s waves and the possibility of a variant Fuel has bursts.

He compared the current state of the pandemic to “watching the tick and drying an irregular clock pendulum”.

“The pandemic could cause the virus to circulate unpredictably and new variants could cause outbreaks or epidemics on a regular basis, especially if vaccine availability is low or vaccine hesitation is high, similar to what is happening now with the flu,” Cameron said .

“The moment we are in – with vaccination rates, variant spread and Covid-19 fatigue in competition – is vital to stop this virus and its growing penchant for evading our eradication efforts,” he said.

4. The chance of another summer climb

William Haseltine, former professor at Harvard Medical School and author of “Variants! The Shape-Shifting Challenge of COVID-19,” said there was a risk of another summer surge and summer travel would only make the problem worse.

“The more people choose to escape the very real pandemic stress and fatigue, the more we risk another spike in cases this summer,” he said.

Covid-19 is expected to become a seasonal disease at some point, but it is not known when this will occur.

Marko Klaric / EyeEm | EyeEm | Getty Images

Haseltine said many people hope that warm summer weather will lead to a decline in Covid cases due to the seasonality of other coronaviruses and influenza viruses.

But as it turns out, this virus is “far less seasonal than many expect,” he said. “If you look back on 2020 and the early part of 2021, you will find that, as expected, there have been falls and winter flare-ups, but also spring and summer flare-ups.”

While the virus that causes Covid-19 is expected to become seasonal at some point, the United Nations World Meteorological Organization has highlighted in a report that “there is no evidence” that this year will be different from 2020.

Read more about summer travel in the age of Covid

Dr. Supriya Narasimhan, chief infectious disease surgeon at Santa Clara Valley Medical Center, agreed that another spike is possible in the summer, even in places where vaccines are being aggressively introduced.

She agreed that Covid is “less seasonal than the flu” and said the factors that will influence whether it will continue to rise are public adherence to masking, vaccine intake and variants.

“It’s a game of cat and mouse where the virus mutates. The only way to stop it is to stop transmission,” she said. “We might still hit a vaccine wall because people just don’t want to take it, even if it’s available.”

“I think we need more data to make travel decisions,” she said.

Disclosure: Scott Gottlieb is a CNBC employee and a member of the boards of directors of Pfizer, genetic testing startup Tempus, health technology company Aetion Inc., and biotech company Illumina. He is also co-chair of the Healthy Sail Panel for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Royal Caribbean.