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‘The economic system is braking exhausting,’ says billionaire Barry Sternlicht

The US economy is teetering on the brink of a serious downturn if the Federal Reserve doesn’t put the brakes on its rate hikes, said billionaire CEO Barry Sternlicht.

The central bank has already raised interest rates four times this year and is widely expected to raise them by 75 basis points next week to tame inflation. Earlier this week, consumer prices rose 0.1% instead of the 0.1% fall economists polled by Dow Jones had been expecting.

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However, Sternlicht believes the Fed came in too late and is now too aggressive.

“The economy is decelerating sharply,” the chairman and CEO of Starwood Capital Group told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday.

“If the Fed keeps going like this, they’re going to have a serious recession and people are going to lose their jobs,” he added.

Consumer confidence is terrible and CEO confidence is “lousy,” Sternlicht said. Supply chain issues are being resolved, and stocks are now backing up in warehouses, which will result in huge discounts, he said.

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“The CPI, the data they’re looking at, is old data. All they have to do is call Doug McMillon at Walmart, call one of the real estate guys and ask what’s happening with our apartment rents,” he said, noting that rental growth is now slowing.

The continuation of interest rate hikes will also cause a “big crash” in the real estate market, Sternlicht predicted. The once-hot housing market is slowing fast, with mortgage rates on a 30-year term loan up over 6% — up from 3.29% at the start of the year, according to Mortgage News Daily.

While the Fed’s target is 2%, inflation should be 3% to 4%, Sternlicht said.

“Inflation fueled by wage growth is fabulous. We should want wages to go up,” he said.

Interest rates are rising – how to protect your money

“You can pay higher rents, you can buy your equipment, you can go out to restaurants if you have big pay increases.”

Sternlicht believes it is imminent when the “serious recession” will hit.

“I find [in the] fourth quarter. I think now,” he said. “You’ll see cracks everywhere.”

Correction: Doug McMillon is CEO of Walmart. A previous version misspelled his name.

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Pelosi Says Invoice on Investing Guidelines for Lawmakers Will Face Vote This Month

Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Wednesday that Democrats would bring legislation into the House this month that would impose new restrictions on lawmakers’ ability to buy and sell stocks.

Her announcement comes after months of negotiations over whether and how to limit personal financial activities by members of Congress that could create real or perceived conflicts of interest with their public duties. And it came a day after the New York Times published an analysis showing that between 2019 and 2021, 97 congressmen and senators or their immediate family members reported trading in stocks, bonds or other financial assets mandated by committees, who they were could have been influenced serve on.

Ms Pelosi declined to give details of the proposed legislation other than calling it “very strong”.

“We believe we have a product to launch this month,” Ms. Pelosi said during her weekly news conference at the Capitol.

In the seven months since Ms Pelosi first signaled her support for legislation to tighten stock trading in Congress, there have been few signs of legislative progress likely to pass the House. A number of slightly different bills have been proposed in both the House and Senate, some with bipartisan support.

The slump in equity and bond markets this year has been painful and it remains difficult to predict the future.

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  • Persistent Meme Stocks: The frenzy in which traders rallied on social media and drove up the stock prices of companies like GameStop can no longer be explained simply as a pandemic phenomenon.
  • Junk Bonds: Companies with poor credit ratings, whose debt is often labeled “junk,” are now taking the opportunity to borrow more money.

“For months, House and Senate leaders have promised action,” said Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a Virginia Democrat and the main sponsor of a bipartisan trade curb proposal by the Legislature. “It’s long past time to move forward.”

One version of a legal framework in the House of Representatives, outlined in a late August memo reviewed by The Times, would effectively ban lawmakers, their spouses and dependent children from trading in individual stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies and other financial assets that are tied to specific companies.

Under the framework that forms the basis of current negotiations for a proposed law, congressmen would either have to divest these assets or place them in a blind trust in which they would have no visibility or interest. Legislators would still be allowed to invest in mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and some other categories.

According to the memo, the new legislation would also require more detailed transaction disclosures for permitted investments — for example, by narrowing published value ranges of assets — and toughen penalties for those who evade or break the law.

“Congress can add some bite to these penalties, which will encourage compliance and result in harsher penalties for violations,” the memo said.

According to the memo, members of the Supreme Court would be subject to the same restrictions. So would senior congressional officials, according to a Democratic official in the House of Representatives.

Congressional leaders have faced increasing pressure in recent months to crack down on their peers’ financial activities. An ongoing investigation by website Insider that began last year has found 72 examples of lawmakers who have violated applicable laws by late, inaccurate or not filing transaction reports.

A poll conducted earlier this year showed that nearly two-thirds of respondents supported a blanket ban on members of Congress from trading in individual stocks. And with public confidence in Congress down to just 7 percent in June, many lawmakers are reluctant to ignore voters’ demands.

“Congress is mired in a crisis of institutional legitimacy, caused in part by reports by members of both parties who appear to be benefiting from their public trust,” wrote Noah Bookbinder, president of Washington nonprofit group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics, in a letter on Wednesday calling for sweeping restrictions on trade by members of Congress.

In a separate news conference on Tuesday, other senior House Democrats signaled confidence that progress was being made on new trade restrictions.

Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New York, leader of the House Democrats, said he expects legislation “soon” from Rep. Zoe Lofgren, the California Democrat who has commissioned Ms Pelosi to draft a bill that has broad support can.

It’s not clear if the Senate will pass legislation on the issue this year. A number of senators have been working on proposals, but none appear to have garnered the 60 votes required for passage by the Senate.

Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley, who is working on one of the proposals, said Wednesday, “I am committed to getting the stock trading ban in Congress across the finish line. I’ve carried this fight for a decade and I will not let it die.”

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NBA suspends Suns proprietor Robert Sarver for utilizing racial slurs, harassing workers

The NBA suspended Phoenix Suns and Mercury owner Robert Sarver for a year and fined them $10 million Tuesday after an independent investigation uncovered multiple violations of workplace standards of conduct.

The investigation revealed that Sarver repeated the N-word at least five times. He also made gender-related comments and inappropriate language related to female employees. He also abused employees by yelling and verbally abusing them.

The investigation also found that Suns’ human resources department was historically ineffective.

The league launched the investigation in November after an ESPN article detailed alleged wrongdoing by Sarver. The NBA hired the law firm of Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, which reviewed more than 80,000 documents — including emails, text messages and videos — related to Sarver’s conduct.

Sarver initially called the allegations “false,” “inaccurate,” and “misleading,” while firmly denying the allegations of misconduct. In November he said: “I would very much welcome an impartial NBA investigation that could prove ours only outlet to clear my name and the reputation of an organization of which I am so proud.”

The review of Sarver’s 18-year tenure as managing partner of the teams found the results corroborated the original reporting.

“The statements and behavior described in the findings of the independent investigation are disturbing and disappointing,” said NBA Commissioner Adam Silver. “We believe that the result is correct, taking into account all the facts, circumstances and context brought to light by the comprehensive investigation of this 18-year period.”

The $10 million fine is the maximum permitted by the NBA’s constitution and bylaws. Sarver will also be banned from all NBA and WNBA facilities, events, games, practices and business activities.

“The NBA’s organizational findings are largely focused on historical issues that have been addressed in recent years,” said a statement from Suns Legacy Partners, the company that manages the Suns and Mercury. “Robert Sarver also accepts responsibility for his actions. He recognizes that his behavior during his eighteen years of ownership at times did not reflect his values ​​or those of the Suns.”

Sarver’s fine will be donated to organizations working to address race and gender issues inside and outside the workplace. During his suspension, Sarver will complete a training program on respect and proper behavior in the workplace.

“While I disagree with some of the details of the NBA report, I would like to apologize for my words and actions that have offended our staff,” Sarver wrote in a statement sent to CNBC. “I take full responsibility for what I have done. I am sorry for causing this pain and these misperceptions do not align with my personal philosophy or values.”

The findings echo revelations about former Los Angeles Clippers owner Donald Sterling, who was fined $2.5 million and banned for life after audio recordings caught him making racist remarks. The ban forced Sterling to sell the team to former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer for $2 billion after 33 years in ownership. Sterling’s lawsuit against the NBA was settled in 2016.

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Inflation Defined: The Good, the Unhealthy and the Unsure

Inflation in the United States has started to cool year on year due to falling gas prices, but economists are looking for further evidence that the slowdown in price increases will become more widespread and pronounced.

So far, policymakers are getting good news, but the data is far from conclusive.

Here are a few positive developments, a few worrying signs, and a major looming uncertainty that analysts will be watching closely in Tuesday’s CPI data and the months ahead.

  • gas and other raw materials. Falling prices at the pump have dragged down annual inflation and some food prices have also fallen, which could eventually filter through to retail prices. This is good news for consumers, who tend to be sensitive to transportation and grocery costs. But for Federal Reserve officials, lower gas and food prices would be a welcome but not crucial development. As these costs bounce, central bankers tend to look past them when trying to get a feel for where inflation is headed.

  • cars and other physical products. A more meaningful positive development is taking place in commodity prices, which are showing the first signs of cooling. In particular, used car price hikes, which helped fuel the inflation that started last year, are slowly starting to recede. Commodity inflation is slowing in part because consumers are shifting spending away from products they bought during the pandemic and back to services like dining out and vacations. That’s also in part because supply chain issues that have plagued manufacturers for more than a year are showing signs of abating, though not back to normal.

  • Services linked to the labor market. Even as price increases for some goods are easing, prices for services — including the cost of dining out or hiring childcare — have risen rapidly. This could continue as these prices are closely linked to wages, which have risen in particular due to a strong labor market with low unemployment and labor shortages in many areas.

  • Rent. The most important service category is rent-related costs, which account for almost a third of overall inflation. For the time being, economists are assuming that housing costs will continue to rise sharply. There are too few apartments, especially since renters are reluctant to buy houses in view of rising mortgage interest rates. And a sharp rise in rents over the past year is still slowly adding to inflation.

  • War and Disruption Risk. Economists have repeatedly predicted that inflation would be on the verge of a slowdown, only to crush those expectations. In fact, inflation fell briefly last summer before rebounding in the fall. With the war in Ukraine still stoking uncertainty about supply chains and commodity markets, central bankers may hesitate to declare victory over inflation. And even if inflation begins to ease, a key question is how much will inflation slow down?

    “The more important question for the Fed isn’t, ‘Has inflation peaked?’ It’s, ‘What’s the goal?’” said Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies. She believes that without a significant slowdown in economic growth, bringing annual gains back below 4 percent will be difficult. That would be far more than the 2 percent annual average targeted by the Fed.

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5 issues to know earlier than the inventory market opens Monday, September 12

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, the United States, September 9, 2022.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Here is the key news investors need to start their trading day:

1. Futures go up

US stock markets were primed to open slightly higher on Monday morning as investors sought momentum from last week’s gains. All three major indices have been on a three-week losing streak as markets grapple with the reality of another big rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The central bank’s monetary policy committee is expected to hike interest rates by three-quarters of a point next week, even as inflation shows signs of moderating slightly. Investors will get the latest inflation data on Tuesday, when the government is due to release the August consumer price index.

2. Ukraine strikes back

Military personnel from Ukraine’s State Security Service pose for a photo in the recently liberated city of Kupyansk, in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, in this handout picture released on September 10, 2022.

Press Service of the State Security Service of Ukraine | Via Reuters

The Ukrainian military has Russia in two parts of the country on the run. Having made significant progress in southern Ukraine, the nation’s forces, supported by US and other Western allied arms, unleashed a lightning counteroffensive in the northeast. According to a Russian official, “the situation is getting more difficult by the hour” for Kremlin forces in what has been a humiliating few weeks for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ukraine claims it regained more than 1,100 square miles of territory occupied by Russia this month. Follow live updates here.

3. Chapek casts a spell at D23

Disney Chief Executive Officer Bob Chapek speaks at the 2022 Disney Legends Awards during Disney’s D23 Expo in Anaheim, California on September 9, 2022.

Mario Anzuoni | Reuters

Disney CEO Bob Chapek went on a charm offensive at D23 Expo over the weekend, sending positive messages to fans, employees and investors alike. It seemed to be working, too, at least for one big activist investor. Third Point CEO Dan Loeb had been pushing the entertainment and media giant to spin off its ESPN operations, but he backed down on the matter with a tweet Sunday morning. “We have a better understanding of @espn’s potential as a standalone company and another vertical for $DIS to reach global audiences to generate ad and subscriber revenue,” he said. Chapek had told Variety that Disney has “a vision” for where ESPN fits into the company’s plan for the next 100 years. “We didn’t share that plan,” he added.

4. JPMorgan buys another fintech company

JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon speaks at the Boston College Chief Executives Club luncheon in Boston, Massachusetts, the United States, on November 23, 2021.

Brian Snyder | Reuters

To counter the fast-growing Stripe and Block, JPMorgan Chase has agreed to buy fintech payments startup Renovite, reports CNBC’s Hugh Son. Chase is already the world’s leading service provider to merchants. It processes about $9 trillion in transactions every day. But executives at the legacy bank, particularly CEO Jamie Dimon, have sounded the alarm about emerging competitors. Since late 2020, as the Covid pandemic raged, JPMorgan has acquired at least five fintech startups in a tech spending frenzy that has drawn some criticism. The Renovite deal allows the bank to expand more quickly in global markets because it doesn’t require as much coding, Mike Blandina, global head of payments technology at JPMorgan, told CNBC.

5. New chip restrictions

U.S. President Joe Biden attends the groundbreaking ceremony for Intel’s new semiconductor manufacturing facility in New Albany, Ohio on September 9, 2022.

Joshua Roberts | Reuters

The Biden administration will unveil new restrictions on US semiconductor supplies to China next month, Reuters reported, citing several people familiar with the matter. The limits focus on chips used for artificial intelligence and tools used to manufacture semiconductors. KLA, Lam Research and Applied Materials were notified in writing earlier this year of the upcoming changes, and the companies acknowledged the notification. Reuters also reported that some of its sources for the article said the administration may also unveil additional measures against China as President Joe Biden pushes to make the United States more competitive with its rival.

– CNBC’s Carmen Reinicke, Holly Ellyatt, Jeff Cox and Hugh Son contributed to this report.

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The place Walmart, Amazon, Goal are spending billions in slowing financial system

A Walmart employee loads a robotic warehouse tool with an empty shopping cart to be filled with a customer’s online order at a Walmart micro-fulfillment center in Salem, Massachusetts January 8, 2020.

Boston Globe | Boston Globe | Getty Images

When the economy slows, the classic response for consumer companies is to cut back: slow hiring, potentially laying off employees, cutting back on marketing, or even slowing the pace of technology investment and postponing projects until business picks up again.

But that’s not at all what America’s struggling retail sector is doing this year.

With the S&P Retail Index down nearly 30% this year, most of the industry is increasing capital spending investments by double digits, including industry leaders Walmart and Amazon.com. Among the top performers, only struggling apparel maker Gap and hardware store chain Lowe’s fare well. At electronics retailer Best Buy, profit fell by more than half in the first half of the year – but investments rose by 37 percent.

“There’s definitely concern and awareness of costs, but prioritization is happening,” said Thomas O’Connor, vice president of supply chain-consumer retail research at consultancy Gartner. “A lesson has been learned from the aftermath of the financial crisis,” said O’Connor.

The selection? Investments from high-spending leaders like Walmart, Amazon and Home Depot are likely to cause customers to be drawn away from weaker peers over the next year, when cash flow from consumer discretionary is expected to recover from a year-long drought in 2022 and shopping for spending on goods revive is actually shrunk early this year.

After the 2007-2009 downturn, 60 companies classified by Gartner as “efficient growth companies” that invested during the crisis saw their earnings double between 2009 and 2015, while other companies’ earnings were little changed, according to a 2019 report 1,200 US and European companies.

Companies have taken this data to heart. A recent Gartner survey of finance leaders across all industries shows that investing in technology and human resources are the latest spending companies are looking to cut as the economy struggles to prevent recent inflation from triggering a new recession. Budgets for mergers, environmental sustainability plans, and even product innovation are taking a back seat, Gartner data shows.

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Today, some retailers are improving the way supply chains work between stores and their suppliers. That’s a focus at Home Depot, for example. Others, like Walmart, are striving to improve in-store operations so shelves are restocked faster and fewer lost sales.

The trend toward more investment has been developing for a decade but has been catalyzed by the Covid pandemic, said Progressive Policy Institute economist Michael Mandel.

“Even before the pandemic, retailers were moving from investing in structure to actively investing in equipment, technology and software,” Mandel said. “[Between 2010 and 2020]Software investment in the retail sector increased by 123%, compared to a 16% increase in manufacturing.”

At Walmart, money is pouring into initiatives like VizPick, an augmented reality system that connects to workers’ phones and allows employees to restock shelves faster. The company increased its capital expenditures by 50% to $7.5 billion in the first half of its fiscal year, which ends in January. The investment budget is expected to grow 26 percent to $16.5 billion this year, said Arun Sundaram, an analyst at CFRA Research.

“The pandemic has obviously changed the entire retail environment,” Sundaram said, forcing Walmart and others to be efficient in their back offices and make even more use of online channels and in-store pickup options. “As a result, Walmart and all other retailers have improved their supply chains. You see more automation, less manual picking [in warehouses] and more robots.”

Last week Amazon announced its latest acquisition of warehouse robots, Belgian company Cloostermans, which offers technology to move and stack heavy pallets and goods, as well as pack products together for delivery.

Home Depot’s campaign to overhaul its supply chain has been going on for several years, O’Connor said. According to the company’s financials, the One Supply Chain project is hurting profits for now, but it’s central to both operational efficiencies and a key strategic goal — creating deeper bonds with professional contractors who spend far more than they do Home improvement who were the bread and butter of Home Depot.

“To serve our professionals, it’s really about removing friction through a variety of enhanced product offerings and features,” executive vice president Hector Padilla told analysts on Home Depot’s second-quarter conference call. “These new assets in the supply chain allow us to do this at a different level.”

The store of the future for aging brands

Some retailers are more focused on refreshing an aging private label. At Kohl’s, the highlight of this year’s investment budget is an expansion of the company’s relationship with Sephora, which is adding convenience stores to Kohl’s 400 stores this year. The partnership helps the mid-tier retailer add some flair to its otherwise stodgy image, which contributed to its relatively weak sales growth in the first half of the year, said Landon Luxembourg, retail expert at consultancy Third Bridge. At Kohl’s, investments more than doubled in the first half of this year.

About $220 million of the increase in Kohl’s spending was related to investments in beauty inventory to support the 400 Sephora stores opening in 2022, CFO Jill Timm said. “We’re going to continue that next year. … We look forward to working with Sephora on this solution for all of our stores,” she told analysts at the company’s recent earnings announcement in mid-August.

Target is spending $5 billion this year to add 30 stores and modernize another 200, bringing the number of stores renovated since 2017 to more than half the chain. It’s also expanding on its own beauty partnership, first unveiled in 2020 with Ulta Beauty, adding 200 Ulta centers in stores en route to 800.

Telsey: There's a real divide between low-income and high-income consumers

And the biggest lender of all is Amazon.com, which had over $60 billion in capital expenditures in 2021. While Amazon’s reported capital expenditure numbers include its cloud-computing division, the company spent nearly $31 billion on property, plant and equipment in the first half — following an already record-breaking 2021 — though the investment made the company’s free cash flow negative .

That’s enough to make even Amazon hit the brakes a little, as CFO Brian Olsavsky tells investors that Amazon is shifting more of its investment money into cloud computing. This year, it is estimated that around 40% of spending will support warehouses and transport capacity, compared to last year’s combined 55%. It also plans to spend less on global deals — “to better align with customer demand,” Olsavksy told analysts after its recent gains — already a much smaller budget item percentage.

At Gap — whose shares are down nearly 50% this year — executives have defended their capex cuts, saying they need to defend earnings this year and hope for a rebound in 2023.

“We also believe there is an opportunity to more meaningfully slow the pace of our investments in technology and digital platforms to better optimize our operating profits,” Chief Financial Officer Katrina O’Connell told analysts following the latest results.

And Lowe’s deflected an analyst’s question about spending cuts, saying it could continue to take market share from smaller competitors. Lowe’s has been the better stock market performer compared to Home Depot over the past one-year and year-end periods, though both posted sizeable declines in 2022.

“Home improvement is a $900 billion marketplace,” said Lowe CEO Marvin Ellison, without mentioning Home Depot. “And I think it’s easy to just focus on the two biggest players and determine the overall market share gain just based on that, but this is a really fragmented market.”

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Billy McFarland Is Out of Jail and Prepared for His Subsequent Transfer

“Is this technically Dumbo?” Billy McFarland asked, walking toward the East River shoreline. “It’s super cool. Are the rents here crazy too?

“I never spent much time in Brooklyn, until the Brooklyn detention center,” he continued. “I was always like, ‘I’m never going to live in Brooklyn.’ Now, I think it’s kind of nice.”

Mr. McFarland, who in 2018 entered guilty pleas for fraud stemming from his role in organizing the Fyre Festival — a Coachella-for-the-Bahamas affair that went spectacularly awry and established him as the Elizabeth Holmes of party promoters— had been a free man for all of 15 minutes. And he didn’t seem inclined to lay low after spending close to four years in prison, plus another six months of additional confinement.

Moments after removing an electronic ankle monitor at the Gold Street halfway house where he had stayed earlier this year, he was posing for a New York Times photographer and talking to a reporter whom he’d approached toward the end of his confinement with the help of a publicist.

“I thought it was going to be a big process, but it turns out they just hand you scissors and you cut it off,” said Mr. McFarland, 30, who is 6-foot-3 and post-prison lean. He was wearing a dark T-shirt and navy pants that he said were from Uniqlo. On his feet were Gianvito Rossi sneakers that looked like Converse All Stars, but retail for around $700.

Mr. McFarland — who has little money in the bank, around $26 million in financial amends to make and no immediate job prospects — said he had purchased the shoes before his legal problems.

“Friends joke that my entire wardrobe is from 2016,” he said.

Back then, Mr. McFarland — who grew up in Short Hills, N.J., and dropped out of Bucknell University after less than a year — was known as the founder of a company called Magnises, whose flagship charge card was pitched as a kind of American Express Black card for millennials.

Mostly, those who joined were given access to an open bar at a Greenwich Village townhouse where he held parties. Another membership perk: Bahamian excursions, including to Norman’s Cay, a small island that once served as a hub for the Medellín Cartel’s cocaine-smuggling operation.

That was the site Mr. McFarland had selected to hold an epic coming-out festival for his next invention, Fyre, an Uber-like app through which people could book their favorite celebrities for special events. He enlisted Ja Rule, Kendall Jenner, Bella Hadid and Emily Ratajkowski to help promote the 2017 party, which featured more than 30 musical guests, including Blink-182 and Tyga. Tickets cost up to $12,000.

But the Fyre Festival — which would go on to achieve cultural notoriety, if not for the reasons Mr. McFarland had intended — was poorly planned, and its finances were a mess.

The night before the first attendees arrived on the island, an intense rainstorm hit.

People showed up to find that the “luxury villas” that came with their ticket packages were, in fact, disaster relief tents located on a makeshift camping ground.

And the “uniquely authentic island cuisine” guests were promised in promotional materials turned out to be cheese sandwiches served in plastic foam containers, though Mr. McFarland countered in our interview last week that reports of the meals had been vastly overblown.

“There’s a reason there’s only one photograph of that,” he said, referring to a viral shot of a sad pile of lettuce topped by two tomato slices, above two slices of prepackaged cheese serving as a sort of garnish for two slices of untoasted wheat bread.

Ultimately, the event — which stranded thousands of attendees in the Bahamas and left them scrounging for makeshift shelter on a dark beach — was scrapped without a single performance taking place. Less than two months later, Mr. McFarland was arrested and charged with fraud.

“They took me to the Brooklyn detention center for one night,” he said. “My head was swirling with all these things, and I panicked like, ‘I need to pay everybody back tomorrow or else this is real.’”

Class-action lawsuits followed.

While on probation, Mr. McFarland launched a V.I.P. ticket service that promised users tickets he didn’t have to events including the Broadway musical “Hamilton,” the Victoria’s Secret fashion show and the Met Gala.

There was another round of fraud charges.

“I probably added years on to my sentence by doing that,” he said. “I just was making bad decision after bad decision.”

By the water in Dumbo, Mr. McFarland struck a few plaintive poses. “I can’t wait to go swimming,” he said.

He then took an Uber to his small second-floor apartment in the Bedford-Stuyvesant neighborhood.

On the curb outside his new building, he continued to speak of the borough with tourist-like wonder. “Was this street terrible years ago?” he asked. “Because there are all these nice new buildings.” (Before the Fyre Festival, Mr. McFarland had lived in the meatpacking district. “I was 21 when I moved there — cut me some slack,” he said.)

With characteristic vagueness, Mr. McFarland said the rent for his new place was being paid by “family and friends.” He did not say whether that included his parents, Steven and Irene McFarland, who are real estate developers based in New Jersey.

It had taken a lot, Mr. McFarland said, for his parents to understand that “someone they were so close to was capable of lying like I did.” He continued, “I hurt them, and it sucks.”

Had he personally apologized to his victims? “No,” he said, then posed a question of his own:

“What would you say to them if you were me?”

The terms of Mr. McFarland’s six-month house arrest allowed him to go outside only to go to the grocery store or the gym. He chose a membership at Blink Fitness, which he paid for with a debit card. “I don’t think I can get a credit card,” he said.

His new apartment was Airbnb-neutral. The only decorations were a few plants he’d picked up at Trader Joe’s — a bird of paradise, two money trees — along with a white board that was blank as the decor. The bed was perfectly made, the floor immaculate.

The work of a cleaning service? “You’re never going to believe it,” he said. “I learned how to do it!”

As Mr. McFarland recalled it, his housekeeping education began at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, where he was first held, then continued at the Otisville Correctional Facility in upstate New York, where he was transferred in early 2019. “It was like Danbury,” he said, referring to the less hard-line cushy-by-prison standards facility where Martha Stewart did her time. “But I messed it up.”

Guards confiscated the drive and Mr. McFarland spent three months in solitary confinement, where he said he fell asleep to the sounds of a screaming gang member known as the White Tiger, so named because of tattoos of the animal that covered his face and other areas of his body.

After that, he was resettled at FCI Elkton, a low-security federal correctional institution located in Ohio.

Then, in 2020, the coronavirus pandemic hit. Mr. McFarland appealed for compassionate release, claiming that allergies and asthma placed him in a high risk category for health complications. His efforts were unsuccessful. “Hope clouds your judgment,” he said. “There was no way I was going to get out.”

Ultimately, prison records show, Mr. McFarland spent six months there, though the records do not specify why. His lawyer, Jason Russo, said in a phone interview that he had written letters to prison officials attempting to get Mr. McFarland out of solitary confinement, only to be stonewalled at every turn. Mr. Russo said he could not even get a specific answer as to why Mr. McFarland was there for such an extended period of time. Emails and phone calls to the prison by the New York Times were not returned.

Mr. McFarland read a lot during those months. “There was nothing else to do,” he said.

One of the books he finished was Simon Sinek’s “Start with Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Everyone to Take Action.” Another was Gregory David Roberts’s novel “Shantarum.”

“It’s about an Australian who breaks out of jail and joins the Indian mafia,” said Mr. McFarland. “Really cool.”

In Mr. McFarland’s Bedford-Stuyvesant living room, on a small shelf by the gray couch from Wayfair — “A friend bought it for me,” he said, “I couldn’t afford it” — were copies of Don Winslow’s “City on Fire” and Sebastian Mallaby’s “The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the Future.”

But Mr. McFarland said hadn’t been doing as much reading since he began home confinement and acquired a Mac desktop computer with a Westinghouse screen. “I just missed the computer so much,” said Mr. McFarland. “I missed that more than anything.”

As part of his plea, Mr. McFarland is barred for life from serving as a director of a public company. His earnings will be garnished until he pays back the full amount he owes his victims, more than $25 million.

“Obviously, he’s got a lot of work ahead of him,” Mr. Russo said.

At least for now, Mr. McFarland has abandoned the idea of writing his memoir.

“The book’s not going to pay the restitution, let me put it that way,” he said.

So what will?

“I’d like to do something tech-based,” he said a few minutes later, walking to BKLYN Blend, where he ordered an egg sandwich and a coffee. “The good thing with tech is that people are so forward-thinking, and they’re more apt at taking risk.

“If I worked in finance, I think it would be harder to get back,” he continued. “Tech is more open. And the way I failed is totally wrong, but in a certain sense, failure is OK in entrepreneurship.”

Seated at a quiet table in the corner — no one at the coffee shop appeared to recognize him — Mr. McFarland mulled whether he’d prefer to work for himself or someone else. “At the end of the day, I think I could probably create the most value by building some sort of tech product,” he said. “Whether that’s within a company or by starting my own company, I’m open to both. I’ll probably decide in the next couple of weeks which path to go do.”

He said he was “not particularly interested in crypto,” though he would make an exception for the latest frontier in blockchain technology, decentralized autonomous organizations, which he said were “allowing people to come together online to effect real world change in a way they previously couldn’t, taking people to places they couldn’t get to — and, once they’re there, enabling them to effect real-world change.”

In April 2020, while in prison, Mr. McFarland made his first foray into philanthropy. He led a drive called Project 315, which raised money to cover the costs of calls between underprivileged inmates and their families. Four days after the project’s Instagram launch, fees were waived nationwide. “We did it,” the Instagram account associated with Mr. McFarland’s “non profit organization” said, claiming credit. (In fact, the suspension of fees came after campaigning by Senator Amy Klobuchar and a group of other Democratic senators that had begun well before Mr. McFarland got the idea.)

But it whetted his appetite for good works, he said. Now, Mr. McFarland is talking about forming a charity that would pay travel costs for the families of prisoners.

“I met some really amazing people in prison,” he said. “Half the people are just naturally bad and the other half are great.” (Mr. McFarland hedged, when asked which group he belonged to. “But I think I’m a better person than I was four years ago,” he said.)

Mr. McFarland said he wanted people to know that he was sorry for what went wrong with the festival and for his actions. “I deserved my sentence,” he said. “I let a lot of people down.”

He attributed his choices in part to “immaturity” and hubris.

“I didn’t know what I didn’t know,” he said.

Partly, he blamed the tech world — the very same world he was musing about re-entering — which he said sometimes operates by an “ends justify the means” ethos.

Still, he took some issue with news articles that compared him to Bernie Madoff; he wasn’t running a decades-long scheme to defraud people of their life savings, after all. Plus, he said, he hadn’t planned for things to end up the way they did.

Much was made in both the Hulu and Netflix documentaries about the local workers in the Bahamas who were stiffed when the festival was canceled and debts piled up.

Mr. McFarland argued that this characterization was somewhat misleading because, he said, most of them were working on a day-to-day or week-to-week basis, and therefore suffered limited losses. (One restaurant owner said in the Netflix documentary that she spent $50,000 of her savings preparing for the festival and received no compensation from organizers. In May 2017, she told The New York Times that she was owed $134,000.)

Two of his former Bahamian employees traveled to New York for a post-house-arrest party Mr. McFarland hosted on the evening of his release at Marylou, a French bistro in the East Village.

Ozzy Rolle, Mr. McFarland’s principle consigliere in the Exumas, an island district in the Bahamas, said the following afternoon that he’d been paid almost everything he was owed for the festival, before it imploded. “I was treated good. Probably a week I wasn’t paid for.” He even went as far as to say the Fyre Festival had been good for tourism in the Bahamas. “So many people came after reading about what happened,” he said.

But Scooter Rolle, his cousin and travel companion, said he had yet to get a dime of what he was owed for his work, in the days before Fyre. “I came to clarify things,” he said.

That didn’t exactly happen, but Mr. McFarland did buy him a post-party lobster roll at Sarabeth’s Kitchen. “Billy tried his best,” he said.

Back at the Bed-Stuy cafe, Mr. McFarland said the biggest sin he had committed was digging himself in deeper with dishonesty.

“I lied,” he said. “I think I was scared. And the fear was letting down people who believed in me — showing them they weren’t right.”

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Confused concerning the housing market? This is what’s taking place

The slowdown in the otherwise red-hot real estate boom has been amazingly quick.

The US housing market has skyrocketed during the pandemic as housebound people looked for new places to live, boosted by record-low interest rates.

Now real estate agents, who once reported queues of buyers outside open houses and bidding wars on the back deck, say houses are sitting longer and sellers are being forced to lower their views.

This leaves both potential buyers and sellers wondering where they stand.

“As recession concerns weigh on consumer prospects, our survey shows that uncertainty has entered the minds of many shoppers,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.

Here are the key factors behind the upside-down housing market.

mortgage rates

The main driver of the slowdown is rising mortgage rates. The average interest rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which is by far the most popular product today and accounts for more than 90% of all mortgage applications, was around 3% earlier this year. It’s now just over 6%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

That means a person buying a $400,000 home would now have a monthly payment about $700 more than they did in January.

Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwards

High prices, low supply

The other drivers of the slowdown are high prices and low supply.

Prices are now 43% higher than when the coronavirus pandemic began, according to S&P Case-Shiller’s national home price index. The supply of homes for sale is up 27% in early September compared to the same time a year ago, according to Realtor.com. While that comparison seems big, it’s still not enough to make up for years of lack of homes for sale.

Active inventory is still 43% lower than in 2019. New listings were also down 6% at the end of September, meaning potential sellers are now concerned as they see more homes staying on the market longer.

Real estate wealth decreases when vulnerable equity decreases

Paul Legere is a buying agent at the Joel Nelson Group in Washington, DC. Focusing on the embattled Capitol Hill neighborhood, he said he saw offers jump by 20 to 171 just after Labor Day. He now calls the market “bloated.” For comparison: In March, only 65 houses were for sale.

“This is a very traditional post-Labor Day inventory increase and it will be very instructive to see how the market absorbs the new inventory in about a week,” he said. “Very.”

Inventory is taking a hit nationwide as homebuilders slow production due to fewer potential buyers touring their models. According to the US Census, single-family housing starts fell 18.5% in July from July 2021.

According to the National Association of Home Builders, homebuilder sentiment in the single-family home market fell into negative territory in August for the first time since a brief dip earlier in the pandemic. Builders reported lower sales and weaker buyer traffic.

“Tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy and persistently elevated construction costs have led to a housing recession,” NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said in the August report.

Some buyers stay tuned

However, buyers have not completely disappeared despite the still expensive selling market and equally expensive rental market.

“The data suggests some homebuyers are finding silver lining in the form of cooling competition for the rising number of homes for sale,” Realtor.com’s Hale said. “Especially for buyers who are getting creative, for example by exploring smaller markets, this fall could offer a relatively better chance of finding a home on budget.”

We could expect falling home prices nationwide, says Yale's Robert Shiller

Real estate prices are finally starting to cool down. They fell 0.77% from June to July, the first monthly decline in almost three years, according to Black Knight, a mortgage technology and data provider.

While the drop may seem small, it’s the biggest one-month price drop since January 2011. It’s also the second-worst July performance since 1991, after the 0.9% drop in July 2010 during the Great Recession.

affordability issues

Still, this fall in prices will do little to improve the affordability crisis caused by rising mortgage rates. While interest rates fell slightly in August, they have risen sharply again this week, marking the least affordable week for housing in 35 years.

Currently, 35.51% of the median income is required to pay the monthly principal and interest payment for the median home with a 30-year mortgage and 20% down payment. That’s a slight increase from the previous 35-year high in June, when the pay-to-earnings ratio hit 35.49%, according to Andy Walden, vice president of corporate research and strategy at Black Knight.

In the five years before interest rates started to rise, the income-to-payments ratio was steady at around 20%. Although house prices rose sharply in 2020 and 2021, record-low interest rates offset the increases.

“Given the large role that affordability challenges appear to be playing in changing housing market dynamics, the recent decline in house prices is likely to continue,” Walden said.

The housing market slows as mortgage rates hit 6.25%

A new report from real estate brokerage firm Redfin showed that while demand from homebuyers picked up a bit in August, the recent rise in mortgage rates over the past week immediately put them to sleep. Fewer people searched Google for “homes for sale” in the week ended September 3 — 25% fewer than a year ago, according to the report.

Redfin’s Demand Index, which measures requests for home inspections and other home-buying services from Redfin agents, showed that demand in the seven days ended Sept. 4 was up 18% from the 2022 low in June, but still year-on-year has decreased by 11% year.

“The housing market always cools off this time of year,” said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist, “but this year I expect the fall and winter to be particularly cold as sales dry up more than usual.”

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Business

Twilight of Entrepreneurs in China as Extra Depart the Nation

BEIJING – Wealthy and powerful entrepreneurs in China were once idolized by the public, revered by the government and courted by foreign investors. They helped build the Chinese economy into a powerhouse, becoming the global face of Chinese business in a freer era, amassing billions of dollars in fortunes, buying villas abroad and holding court at elite international gatherings.

Now, billionaire tycoons are the underdogs in an increasingly state-run economy that prioritizes politics and national security over growth. As the government cracks down on businesses and the economy falters, they keep a low profile, stepping down from their businesses or leaving the country altogether.

In the latest exodus, two of China’s best-known entrepreneurs, Pan Shiyi and Zhang Xin, resigned as chairman and CEO, respectively, of their Soho China real estate empire this week. Both had relocated to the United States early in the pandemic and were trying to manage their business with late-night callbacks to China.

It’s been a tough year for your company. A deal to sell a majority stake to the Blackstone Group in New York fell through when regulators didn’t approve it. Soho China stock has lost more than half of its value over the past year.

“Highly successful entrepreneurs in the early 21st century generally have to ask themselves whether it’s in their best interest to keep running their businesses and stay in China,” said Michael Szonyi, former director of Harvard’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies University. “For these company founders, the writing is clearly on the wall.”

The husband-and-wife couple had embodied the broader rise of China’s economy from rags to riches. Mr. Pan was born into a poor family in Gansu Province, while Ms. Zhang worked in a garment factory in Hong Kong as a teenager.

They started their real estate business on the island of Hainan in China’s far south, a place that has a reputation, even by Chinese standards, for having experienced dizzying ups and downs in house prices. They then quickly focused on China’s largest cities, Beijing and Shanghai, building luxury apartment and retail complexes in some of the most expensive neighborhoods.

Many real estate developers built rectangular boxes with architectural palettes often limited to garish color choices for the glass and eccentric roofs in poor imitation of European mansions. Instead, Mr. Pan and Ms. Zhang enlisted star architects from the West like Zaha Hadid, a friend of Ms. Zhang’s, and created buildings with curved but minimalist façades.

Their resignations underscore growing concerns among private entrepreneurs that China is moving away from the free-wheeling capitalism pioneered by Deng Xiaoping and former Premier Zhu Rongji. Mr. Deng turned to entrepreneurs in the late 1970s to rebuild the economy after the devastation of Mao’s Cultural Revolution, and Mr. Zhu then ushered China into the World Trade Organization and to its role as the world’s largest exporter.

Xi Jinping, head of state since 2012, has instead led China towards a much more authoritarian, state-run society, where national security concerns increasingly take precedence over economic growth. Both business leaders and human rights activists who dared to publicly question Mr. Xi have been jailed as China tightened the reins on the private sector.

Very wealthy entrepreneurs used to be “able to operate as they wanted as long as they didn’t cross certain political boundaries, but those boundaries were fairly loose even during Xi Jinping’s first term in office,” which ended in 2017, said Victor Shih, a specialist in Chinese Economics and Politics from the University of California San Diego. “That has all changed. They’re not such stars anymore.”

Jack Ma, a co-founder of Alibaba who later led the company to dominance in China’s e-commerce sector, has resigned from top positions at the company. Colin Huang, founder of Pinduoduo, a rival of Alibaba, resigned as chairman early last year, less than a year after stepping down as chief executive.

A year ago, Zhang Yiming, founder of TikTok’s parent company ByteDance, said he would step down as CEO to focus on long-term strategy. And when Shanghai went into a two-month lockdown earlier this spring as part of China’s “zero Covid” strategy, Zhou Hang, another prominent tech entrepreneur and venture capitalist, left the city for Vancouver, British Columbia, where he had a strong case against she spelled out China’s current policy.

The problems in Soho China are piling up. The company announced on July 7 that police are investigating its chief financial officer over possible insider trading in Soho stock. Over the past year, Soho has been repeatedly accused of overcharging tenants for electricity and has been fined nearly $30 million.

The government’s efforts to stem a housing bubble, coupled with frequent lockdowns in Chinese cities as part of the country’s crackdown on the pandemic, have seen the entire property market stumble — and with it, the fortunes of Soho China. Soho China announced that the average occupancy rate of its investment properties in Beijing and Shanghai had fallen to 80 percent as of June 30.

updated

Aug 2022 7:04pm ET

Soho China and Ms. Zhang, who frequently speaks for the company, did not respond to calls and texts asking for comment. Two executives at the company, each with Soho for about two decades, Xu Jin and Qian Ting, have been promoted to co-chief executives, according to a filing with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday. A private equity manager, Huang Jingsheng, has been appointed non-executive chairman of the company.

Mr. Pan and Ms. Zhang will remain as executive directors at Soho, Soho China said in its filing, without specifying senior positions for them.

Her resignation comes as the Chinese Communist Party prepares to hold its national congress for the first time in five years, beginning Oct. 16. Congress is expected to give Mr Xi a third five-year term and possibly amend the party’s charter to further tighten its grip on the country’s private sector.

But China’s economy is on the wane and tensions with the United States are high. This combination has made it difficult for Mr. Xi to present himself to Congress as a successful leader.

“Here he is, six weeks before a convention, and things are tense, so that’s exactly what he didn’t want,” said Barry Naughton, a professor at the University of California, San Diego.

The troubles also make China a less attractive place for wealthy investors like Mr. Pan and Ms. Zhang to hold their money, he noted. “What a good time for her to step down.”

Over the past quarter century, Mr. Pan and Ms. Zhang had benefited from China’s rapid urbanization. When they founded Soho China in 1995, the country had 352 million urban residents — a number that had more than doubled by the last year. For many Chinese, housing has become the most important investment, accounting for two-thirds of household wealth.

The pair catered to China’s wealthiest elite with projects such as Galaxy Soho and Wangjing Soho in Beijing and Sky Soho in Shanghai, all designed by Zaha Hadid Architects. These ambitious projects were a symbol of the central role real estate plays in China’s economy, a sector that soon accounted for nearly a third of China’s total economic activity.

As Mr. Pan and Ms. Zhang’s wealth increased, so did their notoriety as the faces of a new generation of sophisticated, cosmopolitan Chinese business leaders. On his social media account Weibo, Mr. Pan has attracted more than 18 million followers and has used his influence for years to call for changes like cleaner air in Chinese cities. Ms. Zhang, who earned a master’s degree in economics from Cambridge and worked at Goldman Sachs early in her career, became a featured speaker at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

The couple’s penthouse duplex in Beijing has become one of China’s hottest lounges for dinner parties, drawing intellectuals, artists and government leaders from across the country and the world.

But China’s entrepreneurs have come under pressure as Mr Xi has continued his “shared prosperity” campaign for corporations and tycoons to share more wealth with their compatriots in a bid to reduce inequality. Mr. Xi has asserted the Communist Party’s control over the private sector and demanded political allegiance from corporations and businesspeople.

Ren Zhiqiang, another wealthy real estate developer and friend of Mr. Pan, was sentenced to 18 years in prison after criticizing Mr. Xi. Some entrepreneurs have been silenced on social media. While Mr. Pan and Ms. Zhang’s Weibo accounts are still active, they have rarely posted, sticking to mundane, boring topics.

“This is part of the development of the Communist Party,” said Drew Thompson, visiting scholar at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. “Private entrepreneurs — high-profile, wealthy people — are increasingly inconsistent with ‘common prosperity’ and the direction that Xi Jinping has taken.”

Li You contributed to the research.

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Business

Trump SPAC deal in danger as merger deadline approaches

Former US President Donald Trump on Oct. 20 announced plans to launch his own social networking platform, dubbed “TRUTH Social,” which is expected to begin beta launch for “invited guests” next month.

Chris Delmas | AFP | Getty Images

The fate of the proposed merger between former President Donald Trump’s media company and the shell company that aims to take it public — and give it a cash injection — has grown murkier as a crucial deadline approaches.

The Digital World Acquisition Corp. is due to merge with Trump Media and Technology Group, owner of Truth Social, on Thursday. DWAC, a special purpose acquisition company, has spent the past week collecting enough shareholder votes to extend the deadline for the transaction. The companies have not completed the merger, and federal investigations related to the deal and Trump have mounted.

The result of the shareholder vote will be announced Thursday at 12:00 p.m. ET.

DWAC was scheduled to publicly announce the result in a special meeting Tuesday, but CEO Patrick Orlando adjourned the meeting within two minutes to allow additional voting time. Earlier in the day, Reuters reported that the vote had failed, citing sources familiar with the matter.

DWAC has previously warned that failure to approve the extension could result in its liquidation, which would pay out roughly at its original share price of $10 per share. DWAC was trading around $22 on Wednesday; the stock was around $97 in March.

Trump Media and Technology Group is also facing obstacles. His Truth Social app, created by the former president after he was banned from Twitter following the January 6, 2021 uprising, has been banned from the Google Play Store.

The company signaled that they are still working on the deal.

“TMTG will continue to work with all stakeholders in connection with its proposed merger and hopes SEC officials will complete their review in a timely manner and free from political interference,” the company told CNBC on Tuesday.

But Trump indicated in a Truth Social post on Saturday that the issue will be resolved and that he doesn’t need DWAC or the cash injection from the deal to keep the platform going.

“Google is making good progress (I think?). SEC seeks to harm companies providing financing (SPAC),” the former president wrote to his 4 million Truth Social followers on Saturday. “Who knows? Anyway, I don’t need funding, ‘I’m really rich!’ Anyone private company???”

The failure of the DWAC merger could sear retail investors attempting SPAC investing because of the President.

Orlando may be able to delay DWAC’s liquidation, according to an SEC filing Wednesday. Orlando’s corporation and SPAC sponsor, ARC Global Investments II, plans to contribute $2.8 million of its own funds to initiate a three-month extension.

However, DWAC may not be out of the woods. The company faces federal investigations into possible securities violations by DWAC and Trump Media and Technology Group. Trump also faces multiple investigations related to the removal of sensitive documents from the White House and his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riots.

DWAC has also warned in an SEC filing that Trump’s waning popularity could pose a risk to the deal.

Representatives from DWAC and Trump Media did not immediately respond to requests for comment Wednesday.