Protesters demonstrate against the military coup in Yangon and demanded the release of the imprisoned Myanmar State Council, Aung San Suu Kyi.
Theint Mon Soe | SOPA pictures | LightRocket via Getty Images
US-China relations may have got off to a bad start under President Joe Biden, but the two countries could find common ground to work together to end the violence in Myanmar.
Scot Marciel, former US ambassador to Myanmar, said both the US and China would not want to see an escalating crisis in the Southeast Asian country.
A military coup on February 1 sparked mass protests across Myanmar and security forces tried to use violent tactics to suppress the demonstrations. According to the advocacy group of the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, 780 people have been killed in the act so far, while over 3,800 people are still detained.
“My feeling would be that this coup, and certainly the turmoil and violence in Myanmar, I don’t see how it is in China’s best interests … My feeling is that China wants stability for a number of reasons, so I think that they’re ‘I’m not thrilled about it, but they’re cautious,’ Marciel said Friday during a webinar organized by the Australian think tank Lowy Institute.
“So there could be some common interests between the United States and China to end the violence and instability,” said Marciel, who was US ambassador to Myanmar from 2016-2020.
The US and other Western powers strongly condemned the coup and imposed sanctions to put the military under pressure. Meanwhile, China’s response has been more subdued as Beijing stressed the importance of stability.
China is a major investor in Myanmar and borders the Southeast Asian country. Some analysts have said China’s relatively cautious response may harm its own interests.
The crisis is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon
One way the US and China could come together on the Myanmar issue is to support the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Rizal Sukma, senior researcher at the Think Tank Center for Strategic and International Studies in Indonesia, said during the webinar .
The regional grouping held an emergency summit last month to address the escalating violence in Myanmar. The ten Member States then issued a statement calling, among other things, for an immediate end to the violence and the appointment of a special envoy to mediate the crisis in Myanmar.
“ASEAN just hopes that whatever plan we have on the ground in Myanmar, the US and China can also help contribute to that plan, such as humanitarian aid,” said Sukma, a former Indonesian diplomat.
Sukma said he was “quite frustrated” that ASEAN had not appointed the special envoy for Myanmar two weeks after the statement. He said the regional grouping should “go ahead” with its plan so that it could enter into dialogue with the various parties in Myanmar.
Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan told CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia on Monday that it was up to the Myanmar military to decide how and when ASEAN could play a role.
Balakrishnan reiterated that the military must stop the violence and release political prisoners – including Aung San Suu Kyi and other democratically elected leaders. He said that only then can “honest direct negotiations” between the army and civilian leaders continue.
“Without this national conversation and this reconciliation, you will see no progress in Myanmar. Indeed, there are signs of a possible civil war,” said the minister.
Marciel said he hoped the group’s initiatives can make “a little bit of headway” in Myanmar. But it is difficult to see an early resolution to the crisis at the moment and that will likely mean more suffering among the people, he added.
“It’s really impossible to predict. I would say that the most likely scenario for the next few months – as far as I can – is unfortunately probably more of the same,” he said. “I don’t see that the (military) give in, I certainly don’t see that the people accept this coup.”
