Month: August 2021

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Politics

CBO says bipartisan plan would add to finances deficits

CBO says bipartisan plan would add to budget deficits

A woman holds an umbrella against the sun as she walks the grounds of the U.S. Capitol, days after the removal of security fencing, during a heat wave in Washington, July 12, 2021.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

The bipartisan Senate infrastructure bill would add $256 billion to budget deficits over a decade, the Congressional Budget Office estimated Thursday.

The report from the nonpartisan agency did not take into account potential revenue increases created by economic growth. As it stands, the CBO said the bill, which does not include tax increases, would generate about $50 billion in revenue.

Senators who crafted the plan had said it would be fully paid for through a range of sources including repurposed coronavirus relief funds, unused unemployment insurance aid and economic activity generated by the investments.

In a statement responding to the CBO estimate, lead infrastructure negotiators Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, and Sen. Krysten Sinema, D-Ariz., said the bill’s spending “is offset through a combination of new revenue and savings, some of which is reflected in the formal CBO score and some of which is reflected in other savings and additional revenue identified in estimates, as CBO is limited in what it can include in its formal score.” They said they would work to get the bill passed by Congress and signed into law.

The Senate was considering amendments to the bill Thursday, and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., aims to pass it before early next week. The release of the CBO report was one of the key steps remaining before the Senate votes on the proposal.

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The legislation includes about $550 billion in new spending on transportation, broadband and utilities.

Republicans have renewed their concerns about federal spending and deficits as the Democratic Congress and White House push to invest trillions of dollars in infrastructure and social programs. Several GOP senators whose support may be needed to pass the bill have said its effect on long-term deficits would play a role in how they decide to vote on it.

It is unclear whether the CBO’s score would be enough to make any Republicans who back the plan reconsider their support for it. Senators who voted to move forward with the bill, including Roy Blunt, R-Mo., have said they wanted to see the CBO’s cost estimate for the plan.

President Joe Biden proposed a more than $2 trillion infrastructure plan earlier this year, calling for a hike in the corporate tax rate to 28% to pay for it.

Republicans criticized his plan, saying they would not support a bill that reversed their 2017 tax cuts. The law slashed the corporate rate to 21% from 35%.

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Health

The Delta Variant Is Sending Extra Kids to the Hospital. Are They Sicker, Too?

The Delta Variant Is Sending More Children to the Hospital. Are They Sicker, Too?

What is clear is that a confluence of factors – including Delta’s contagiousness and the fact that people under the age of 12 are not yet eligible for vaccination – will result in more children being hospitalized, especially in areas of the country in where the virus is increasing. “If you have more cases then of course it eventually comes down to the kids,” said Dr. Malley.

Many children’s hospitals had hoped for a quiet summer. Several common childhood viruses are less common in the warmer months, and national Covid rates declined in the spring.

But that started to change last month as Delta spread. “The number of positive Covid tests began to rise in early July,” said Marcy Doderer, president and chief executive officer of Arkansas Children’s Hospital. “And then we really started to see the kids get sick.”

The vaccines are effective against Delta – and offer strong protection from serious illness and death – but children under 12 are not yet eligible for them. As more adults are vaccinated, children make up an increasing proportion of Covid cases; between July 22 and July 29, they accounted for 19 percent of reported new cases, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics.

“They’re the unvaccinated,” said Dr. Yvonne Maldonado, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at Stanford Medicine and chair of the AAP Infectious Diseases Committee. “We see all new infections there.”

According to the association, almost 72,000 new pediatric Covid cases were reported from July 22 to July 29, almost twice as many as in the previous week. At Johns Hopkins All Children’s Hospital, 181 children tested positive for the virus in July, up from just 12 in June.

Most of these children have relatively mild symptoms such as runny nose, constipation, cough, or fever, said Dr. Wassam Rahman, the medical director of the Pediatric Emergency Center at All Children’s. “Most children are not very sick,” he said. “Most of them will go home and receive preventive treatment at home. But as you can imagine, families are scared. “

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Health

Covid delta will result in improve in breakthrough infections: Moderna

Covid delta will lead to increase in breakthrough infections: Moderna

The highly contagious Delta variant will lead to an increase in breakthrough infections in those who are fully vaccinated as people begin to exercise indoors after the summer, Moderna said Thursday.

While Moderna’s two-dose vaccine remains “stable” six months after the second vaccination, immunity to the coronavirus will continue to decline and ultimately reduce the vaccine’s effectiveness, the company said in the slides accompanying its second quarter earnings report were attached.

The company said its vaccine was 93% effective six months after the second dose. By comparison, Pfizer and BioNTech reported that their vaccine effectiveness decreased to about 84% after six months.

“Given this overlap, we believe a dose 3 refresh will likely be needed before the winter season,” wrote Moderna.

Moderna’s warning comes as the Delta variant becomes more widespread in more than 100 countries, including the United States. Delta, the predominant form of the disease in the United States, is more transmissible than the common cold, 1918 Spanish flu, smallpox, Ebola, MERS, and SARS, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

A healthcare worker treats a patient in a negative pressure room in the Covid-19 Intensive Care Unit (ICU) at Freeman Hospital West in Joplin, Missouri, Tuesday, August 3, 2021.

Angus seed dressings | Bloomberg | Getty Images

For some Americans, concerns about the effectiveness of the vaccine have grown with the advent of the variant, which can cause more serious illnesses than the original coronavirus. Some people have even gone so far as to look for an extra dose not yet recommended by the CDC. This week, San Francisco health officials announced that they would allow patients who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to have a second vaccination from Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna.

Drug makers have been saying for months that they expect people to need booster shots and perhaps additional doses annually at some point, just like they did with seasonal flu.

Moderna said Thursday that results from a Phase 2 study showed that a booster dose of its vaccine elicited a “robust” antibody response against three variants, including Delta.

The CDC and World Health Organization say booster doses are not currently required due to a lack of data. In fact, on Wednesday the WHO called on wealthy nations to stop distributing Covid booster vaccinations to give the world a chance to meet the WHO’s goal of vaccinating 10% of each country’s population by October.

“We need an urgent turnaround from moving the majority of vaccines to high-income countries and the majority to low-income countries,” said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

The move comes after Israel announced that the country will be giving booster doses to its elderly population. The Dominican Republic has also given its population booster doses, while neighboring Haiti recently secured its first vaccine doses.

People in the US are also finding ways to get booster vaccinations.

– CNBC’s Rich Mendez contributed to this report.

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Politics

As Taliban Seize Cities, U.S. Says Afghan Forces Should Fend for Themselves

As Taliban Capture Cities, U.S. Says Afghan Forces Must Fend for Themselves

“We’ve seen this movie before,” Mr. Austin told his boss, in a reference to the Obama-era withdrawal from Iraq, which was followed by the rise of the Islamic State. The United States ended up returning to Iraq and launching five years of airstrikes in Iraq and Syria to help Iraqi security forces beat back that insurgent group.

Mr. Biden has argued for pulling out of Afghanistan for years. In 2009, while serving as vice president, he argued for a minimal force, only to be overruled as Mr. Obama ordered a surge of forces, then a rapid drawdown.

But a dozen years later, as president, he made the decision to withdraw, one of the most significant decisions of his presidency so far. And despite the likelihood that the White House will confront terrible images of human suffering and loss in the coming weeks and months, Mr. Biden has vowed to press ahead regardless of the conditions on the ground.

Polls show that large numbers of Americans in both parties support leaving Afghanistan.

Mr. Biden, declaring that the United States had long ago accomplished its mission of denying terrorists a haven in Afghanistan, said in April that all American troops would leave the country by Sept. 11. That date has since been moved up to Aug. 31, giving the Pentagon — and Afghan forces — just over a month to slow the Taliban surge.

Administration and military officials have voiced conflicting views on whether the United States will continue airstrikes after Aug. 31 to prevent Afghan cities and the Afghan government, led by President Ashraf Ghani, from falling. But even if the airstrikes continue, they can only do so much; the bulk of the effort will have to come from Afghan forces on the ground.

In any event, Kunduz was never going to be the Afghan city that might prompt Mr. Biden to rethink his strategy, two U.S. officials said on Sunday on condition of anonymity.

His hand might be forced if Taliban forces are on the verge of overrunning Kandahar, Afghanistan’s second-largest city, or even Kabul, where the United States maintains an embassy with some 4,000 people.

Helene Cooper and Katie Rogers reported from Washington, and Thomas Gibbons-Neff from Kabul. Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington.

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Entertainment

Gossip Woman: See the Costumes From the Halloween Episode

Gossip Girl: See the Costumes From the Halloween Episode

HBO Max’s Gossip Girl reboot has been treating fans to a variety of fun Easter eggs, but the Halloween episode certainly tops them all. In the latest episode, titled “Hope Sinks,” the students of Constance Billard attend an extravagant Halloween bash in costume. In an attempt to win the costume contest, Julien and Zoya plan the perfect sisters costume as they go as Beyoncé and Solange. However, their plans are quickly thwarted when they realize that two of the popular girls from a rival school, Pippa and Bianca, have leaked their costumes in an attempt to put the spotlight on their own costumes as Blair Waldorf and Serena van der Woodsen.

Julien and Zoya eventually ditch their clothes and put on Aki and Obie’s suits to transform themselves into Dan Humphrey and Chuck Bass. In addition to the meta reference to the original series, there are also some other fun celebrity costumes, including Monet and Luna going as supermodels Naomi Campbell Claudia Schiffer, respectively. Ahead, see more of the Halloween looks side by side the real-life people who inspired them.

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World News

Rising Covid Instances Drive Organizers to Cancel New Orleans Jazz Fest

Rising Covid Cases Force Organizers to Cancel New Orleans Jazz Fest

The New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival has been canceled, officials said Sunday, citing the “exponential growth of new Covid cases in New Orleans and the region.”

The festival, which usually takes place in the spring, has been postponed to October 8-17 in the hopes that vaccinations would make the event possible. Ticket holders will receive emails shortly describing the refund options.

Coronavirus infections hit a record high in Louisiana this month, with the state reporting an average of 4,600 new cases per day over the past week, according to a New York Times database. Hospital stays rose 140 percent to an average of 2,037 per day, and deaths rose 193 percent to an average of 30 per day.

Louisiana reintroduced indoor masking requirements this month in an attempt to contain infections fueled by the state’s low vaccination rate and the highly contagious Delta variant of the virus. Only 37 percent of the state’s population, including children under 12 who are not yet eligible for vaccination, have been fully vaccinated, according to the New York Times.

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Health

The unvaccinated might face new restrictions for winter

The unvaccinated could face new restrictions for winter

Federal Minister of Health Jens Spahn on the way to the presentation of the National Reserve Health Protection at the Federal Press Conference on July 21, 2021 in Berlin.

Andreas Gora | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The German Ministry of Health is preparing comprehensive measures in the coming month that could exclude unvaccinated people from many areas of public life if the Covid-19 infection rates continue to rise.

Health Minister Jens Spahn has submitted proposals to parliament and representatives of the 16 federal states on how the state should deal with the pandemic in the coming months.

The plan comes as German authorities remain cautious about the potential impact of the highly transmittable Delta-Covid-19 variant at a time when many pandemic restrictions have been dropped. Covid-19 cases have risen gradually across the country in recent weeks, albeit from a relatively low level.

Respiratory diseases like Covid tend to thrive in cooler weather conditions, as people typically spend more time together in enclosed spaces, with less ventilation and less personal space than in summer.

The country’s new Covid plan, entitled “Safe through autumn and winter”, was reported for the first time by the German media DPA and the Süddeutsche Zeitung.

What is proposed

The measures, which would be among the strictest in Europe, would ensure that only those who have been vaccinated against the virus, have recovered from infection or have a negative test result have access to many facilities.

Shops, restaurants, hairdressers, beauty salons, indoor sports and large outdoor events were all listed as venues that could become inaccessible to those who did not comply with the proposed changes.

This was known as the “3G rule” and refers to the German terms for vaccinated, recovered (recovered) and tested (tested). The directive already applies to several areas of public life, including air travel and hotel accommodation.

The Ministry of Health said the government was also considering restricting unvaccinated people if infections and hospital stays continued to rise. This has been called the “2G rule” because only vaccinated or recovered people are allowed to visit certain facilities, while unvaccinated people are excluded.

A woman will be tested for the coronavirus on July 23, 2021 in a mobile test station next to a nightclub in Berlin-Kreuzberg amid the ongoing coronavirus / COVID-19 pandemic.

STEFANIE LOOS | AFP | Getty Images

In parallel with these measures, the ministry recommended masking requirements by spring 2022; Test, ventilation and hygiene guidelines would have to be implemented nationwide in schools and day-care centers; and the country should get rid of free Covid-19 testing. Hopefully the latter will provide some incentive to vaccinate, as vaccinations are offered free of charge to all adults.

However, free rapid tests would still be offered to those who cannot be vaccinated or who do not recommend it, such as pregnant women, under the required age for vaccination, allergy sufferers, or other risk groups.

The Covid-19 plan is to be debated on Tuesday at a summit between Chancellor Angela Merkel and the Prime Minister. If approved, the measures should come into effect from September.

Legislators split

Civil rights groups have warned that vaccination-like measures are likely to be counterproductive from a public health perspective, and lawmakers should instead give priority to educating people about vaccination.

At a press conference last month, Merkel warned that measures that constitute an “indirect compulsory vaccination” must be carefully considered and indicated that the focus would remain on encouraging people to get their Covid vaccinations for the time being.

The legislature seems to be divided on this issue. Merkel Chief of Staff Helge Braun said late last month that those who oppose the vaccine should not expect the same freedoms as those who have been fully vaccinated.

Family and Justice Minister Christine Lambrecht has since rejected this view, defended the country’s current application of the “3G Rule” and called on the government to consider other ways of promoting vaccine uptake.

More than 44.5 million people in Germany, around 53% of the total population, are fully vaccinated against the virus.

At her last summer federal press conference as Chancellor at the end of last month, Merkel again called for vaccinations. “The more of us vaccinated, the more freedom we will regain.”

Stressing the importance of people encouraging their family, friends and colleagues to consider vaccinating, Merkel warned that the German Robert Koch Institute for Infectious Diseases could see another sharp rise in Covid-19 in the coming months. Cases expected.

“I tell everyone who is still unsure: A vaccination not only protects you, but also the people who are important to you, who mean a lot to you, your loved ones,” said Merkel.

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Health

Epidemiologist Larry Good on delta variant, vaccinations

Epidemiologist Larry Brilliant on delta variant, vaccinations

The pandemic is not coming to an end soon — given that only a small proportion of the world population has been vaccinated against Covid-19, a well-known epidemiologist told CNBC.

Dr. Larry Brilliant, an epidemiologist who was part of the World Health Organization’s team that helped eradicate smallpox, said the delta variant is “maybe the most contagious virus” ever.

In recent months, the U.S., India and China, as well as other countries in Europe, Africa and Asia have been grappling with a highly transmissible delta variant of the virus.

WHO declared Covid-19 a global pandemic last March — after the disease, which first emerged in China in late 2019, spread throughout the world.

The good news is that vaccines — particularly those using messenger RNA technology and the one by Johnson & Johnson — are holding up against the delta variant, Brilliant told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Friday.

Unless we vaccinate everyone in 200 plus countries, there will still be new variants.

Larry Brilliant

Epidemiologist

Still, only 15% of the world population has been vaccinated and more than 100 countries have inoculated less than 5% of their people, noted Brilliant.

“I think we’re closer to the beginning than we are to the end [of the pandemic], and that’s not because the variant that we’re looking at right now is going to last that long,” said Brilliant, who is now the founder and CEO of a pandemic response consultancy, Pandefense Advisory.

“Unless we vaccinate everyone in 200 plus countries, there will still be new variants,” he said, predicting that the coronavirus will eventually become a “forever virus” like influenza.

Probability of ‘super variant’

Brilliant said his models on the Covid outbreak in San Francisco and New York predict an “inverted V-shape epidemic curve.” That implies that infections increase very quickly, but would also decline rapidly, he explained.

If the prediction turns out be true, it means that the delta variant spreads so quickly that “it basically runs out of candidates” to infect, explained Brilliant.  

There appears to be a similar pattern in the U.K. and India, where the spread of the delta variant has receded from recent highs.

But I do caution people that this is the delta variant and we have not run out of Greek letters so there may be more to come.

Larry Brilliant

Epidemiologist

Daily reported cases in the U.K. — on a seven-day moving average basis — fell from a peak of around 47,700 cases on July 21 to around 26,000 cases on Thursday, according to statistics compiled by online database Our World in Data.

In India, the seven-day moving average of daily reported cases has stayed below 50,000 since late June — far below the peak of more than 390,000 a day in May, the data showed.

“That may mean that this is a six-month phenomenon in a country, rather than a two-year phenomenon. But I do caution people that this is the delta variant and we have not run out of Greek letters so there may be more to come,” he said.

The epidemiologist said there is a low probability that a “super variant” may emerge and vaccines don’t work against it. While it’s hard to predict these things, he added, it’s a non-zero probability, which means it cannot be ruled out.

“It’s such a catastrophic event should it occur, we have to do everything possible to prevent it,” said Brilliant. “And that means get everyone vaccinated — not just in your neighborhood, not just in your family, not just in your country but all over the world.”

Covid vaccine boosters

Some countries with relatively high vaccination rates such as the U.S. and Israel are planning booster shots for their population. Others, such as Haiti, only recently secured their first batch of vaccine doses.

WHO has called on wealthy countries to hold off on Covid vaccine boosters to give low-income countries a chance to vaccinate their people.

But in addition to boosting vaccination in countries with a low inoculation rate, Brilliant said one group of people needs a booster shot “right away” — those who are 65 years and above, and were fully vaccinated more than six months ago but have a weakened immune system.

“It is this category of people that we’ve seen create multiple mutations when the virus goes through their body,” said the epidemiologist.

“So those people, I would say, should be given a third dose, a booster right away — as quickly as moving the vaccines to those countries that haven’t had a very high chance to buy them or have access to them. I consider those two things about equal,” he added.

— CNBC’s Rich Mendez contributed to this report.

Categories
Politics

Unemployment falls however is increased for Black, Hispanic employees

Unemployment falls but is higher for Black, Hispanic workers

A man hands his resume over to an employer at the 25th annual Central Florida Employment Council Job Fair on the Central Florida Fairgrounds. More than 80 companies recruited for over a thousand positions.

Paul Hennessy | LightRakete | Getty Images

Unemployment fell to 5.4% when the economy created 943,000 jobs in July, with strong increases in all population groups despite persistent labor market inequalities.

The unemployment rate for blacks and Hispanic Americans fell to 8.2% and 6.6% respectively, but the numbers are high compared to the unemployment rate for whites and Asians. Unemployment was lowest among whites at 4.8% and among Asians it fell to 5.3%.

These numbers represent a broad improvement on June when the overall unemployment rate was 5.9%. Broken down by group, it was 9.2% for blacks, 7.4% for Hispanic workers, 5.8% for Asians, and 5.2% for whites.

The total employment rate or the share of employed or jobseekers remained largely unchanged. However, it actually fell slightly among blacks, suggesting that the fall in unemployment may be partly due to some blacks dropping out of the labor market.

Still, blacks are almost as likely to be in the labor force as whites, but earn 23% less on a weekly basis at $ 799 compared to $ 1,012, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics median wage data for the second quarter.

Hispanics, who are more labor market participants than any other demographic, earn 26% less than whites at $ 779 a week. Asians are the top earners overall, with an average weekly wage of $ 1,281.

Black and Hispanic workers are disproportionately represented in low-wage industries such as transportation and warehousing, and leisure and hospitality.

For example, black workers make up about 13% of the US workforce, but 21% of all transportation and warehouse workers. Hispanic workers make up 17% of the labor force but 24% in the leisure and hospitality industries.

The differences are even greater when one compares the wages of white men and women across the different demographic categories. White women earn 19% less, black women nearly 40% less, Hispanic women 43% less, and Asian women earn 7% less.

Asian men were the highest earners overall, with an average weekly wage of $ 1,473.

The general employment trend is moving in the right direction as the economy recovers from the pandemic, said Heidi Shierholz, former chief economist at the Department of Labor under the Obama administration.

“Because people of color were disproportionately affected by this downturn and we are recovering from it, workers of color are seeing disproportionate gains,” said Shierholz, senior economist and policy director at the liberal Economic Policy Institute.

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World News

Inventory futures are flat after Dow closes at file Friday

Stock futures are flat after Dow closes at record Friday

A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, August 5, 2021.

Andrew Kelly | Reuters

Stock futures were flat in overnight trading Sunday after the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a record close Friday following a stronger-than-expected jobs report.

Futures on the Dow added 2 points, or 0.01%. S&P 500 futures edged 0.06% lower and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.13%.

U.S. senators reconvened Sunday to work toward the passage of a $1 trillion infrastructure bill, a top political priority of President Joe Biden. The Senate is slated to hold another key procedural vote late Sunday and vote on final passage Tuesday. The bipartisan package is expected to have sufficient Republican support to pass in the Senate and move to the House for consideration in September.

The moves in futures trading came after the Dow rose 144.26 points, or 0.4%, to close at an all-time high of 35,208.51. The S&P 500 rose 0.17% to reach its own record close of 4,436.52. The Nasdaq Composite bucked the trend, dipping 0.4% to 14,835.76. All three major indexes ended the week higher and saw their second positive week in three.

The Labor Department jobs report Friday showed the U.S. economy added 943,000 jobs in July. Economists expected 845,000 new jobs last month, according to Dow Jones estimates. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.4%, below the expectation of 5.7%.

“You saw a lot more jobs being created in those areas that are reopening — restaurants, hotels, logistics, transportation,” Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam said. “That’s a good sign. I think that puts more spending power behind the consumer going forward and I think that that’s ultimately a good thing for the economy.”

The signs of a strong economic recovery could prompt the Federal Reserve to pull back its monetary support measures and prepare to begin tapering its bond-buying program.

“If it does continue to this magnitude, that probably does bring the Fed a little sooner into the game when it comes to tapering,” Adam said.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note jumped as high as 1.3% after the better-than-expected jobs report. The 10-year yield this summer has pulled back significantly from its highs in March, when it neared 1.8%.

The financial sector led gains Friday as rates edged up, increasing banks’ profitability prospects. Industrials, retailers and energy stocks also moved higher as the strong jobs report eased concerns about the economic recovery.

Meanwhile, technology stocks retreated after the jump in rates. Rising rates discount the value of future earnings and therefore can hit growth stocks like technology names particularly hard.

Investors are awaiting key inflation data scheduled for release this week. The consumer price index and the producer price index are scheduled to come out Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

Several Fed officials are scheduled for speaking appearances in the week ahead, with investors listening with a close ear for insights into the central bank’s tapering decision making. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Kansas City Fed President Esther George are all set to speak this week.

Companies including Tyson Foods, AMC Entertainment, Coinbase, Lordstown Motors, Bumble, Palantir, Disney, Airbnb and DoorDash are set to report quarterly earnings this week.