Categories
Health

How Hospitals Can Assist Sufferers and the Planet

This article is part of our new series on the Future of Healthcare, which examines changes in the medical field.

As climate change evolves from a model of the future to a reality of the present, health systems across the country are facing tough questions. What should doctors do when forest fires, rising floods, or other natural disasters endanger their ability to care for patients? How can these institutions be resilient in the face of these disasters?

For Ramé Hemstreet, these are not abstract questions. Mr. Hemstreet is Vice President of Operations and Chief Sustainable Resources Officer for Kaiser Permanente, the California-based healthcare system. The state is already addressing the effects of climate change: During the Northern California wildfires in 2017 and 2019, Kaiser Permanente had to evacuate more than 100 patients from a Santa Rosa facility and find a way to care for the surrounding communities.

“The climate crisis is a human health crisis and we already live that in California,” said Hemstreet.

For the past decade, Mr. Hemstreet and his colleagues at the company have attempted to remove it from fossil fuels in an attempt to largely reduce the company’s contribution to climate change. However, it has also become clear that fossil fuel dependency is an obstacle to health care as the effects of climate change are increasingly part of the lived experience of many Americans.

Hospitals and health systems across the country are trying to answer the key question of how to care for patients when climate change threatens their ability to keep hospitals open. Many of the changes to improve resilience are not lean, technically advanced responses to crisis. Rather, they often represent sensible solutions: relocation of technical equipment from basements, in which floods could damage them, to higher floors; Arranging patient transfers before disasters; Improving energy efficiency; better air filters; and more backup systems and redundancies, just in case.

Since 2012, Boston Medical Center has reduced its energy use by nearly 40 percent and its greenhouse gas emissions from all energy sources by 90 percent while caring for more patients. Some of these savings can be attributed to a CHP power and heat plant that is 35 percent more efficient than the electricity supplier, who uses their energy needs separately. The hospital also bought enough solar power from a solar farm in North Carolina to cover all of its electricity.

BMC, the largest safety net hospital in New England serving the uninsured and underinsured community in the Boston area, has expanded its sustainability efforts beyond renewable electricity and heating, including a rooftop garden in the hospital that grows about 6,000 pounds of food a year for its pantry, stationary meals, and a hospital farmers’ market, and a biodigester that converts food waste into water.

Robert Biggio, an engineer who served in the Merchant Navy and is now senior vice president of facilities and support services for the hospital, learned resilience on the high seas. “People can’t reach you on a ship in the middle of the sea,” he said. “You don’t have a choice to be resilient.”

While it is often argued that sustainability and climate friendliness are too expensive, all system upgrades – including a cogeneration power plant and a cooling system with chilled water circuit instead of an expensive new tower – have saved BMC, a non-profit, significant amount of money.

“Waste reduction is more efficient and also improves resilience,” said Biggio. “They go hand in hand.”

Healthcare in the United States is responsible for an enormous amount of waste and a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions. For every hospital bed, the American healthcare system produces about 30 pounds of waste every day. Overall, it accounts for around 10 percent of national greenhouse gas emissions.

Much of the waste comes from the shift towards disposable items for single use, apart from personal protective equipment, which is intended for single use only. Many hospitals use outside companies to clean and reprocess many of these items. Kaiser Permanente has committed to recycling, reusing or composting 100 percent of its non-hazardous waste by 2025.

In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, hospitals need to have backup power, usually provided by diesel generators. These run on fossil fuels and produce particulate matter known as PM 2.5, which contributes to asthma and other diseases. The air quality in hospitals, which have to test their generators regularly, is often poor.

A recent study found that colored people are more exposed to PM 2.5 from all sources compared to whites, and black Americans are most affected. As a result, these communities, which often do not have access to health care, are more likely to suffer the health consequences of this exposure. PM 2.5 is also responsible for 85,000 to 200,000 deaths per year in the US (according to the study), and long-term exposure to PM 2.5 correlates with hospitalization from Covid-19.

During the fire season and heatwaves, power may go out or utilities may turn off power to avoid sparks or system-wide blackouts. Both mean that hospitals have to be operated with their generators.

That hospitals are partially responsible for this pollution is an unacceptable irony, said Hemstreet.

Kaiser Permanente has been buying supply-scale renewable energy since 2015 and signed a contract in 2018 to purchase 180 megawatts of wind and solar energy and 110 megawatts of battery storage, which is currently under construction. Since 2010, the company has installed 50 megawatts of solar power in its systems and is installing a 9-megawatt-hour battery on the company’s campus in Ontario, California, which can be used to completely take most of the system off the grid.

In New York City, space constraints and less sunshine make ambitious installations difficult, but heatwaves present a similar challenge – the possibility of power outages and rolling outages that turn off air conditioning, with higher temperatures putting some older adults and the sick, in particular, at risk.

Like BMC, NYU Langone Health has built a cogeneration power plant for air conditioning powered by electricity, heat and steam. It’s 50 percent more efficient than electricity, according to Paul Schwabacher, senior vice president of facility management at NYU Langone.

Construction of the CHP plant was in progress prior to Hurricane Sandy in 2012, which was an eye-opening experience for the hospital system. During the storm, the flood reached the lower floors of the hospital, leaving 15 million gallons of contaminated water. More than 300 patients had to be evacuated from the hospital, including newborns in the intensive care unit who were carried down many flights of stairs by doctors and nurses.

The hospital was closed for two months after the storm. During that time, about 100 electricians were working on repairs, Schwabacher said. “We made lemonade,” he said, adding that they did repairs that would have been much more difficult with the hospital open, like cleaning all of the air ducts. They also rebuilt and expanded the emergency room, which was flooded during the storm.

Since then, the hospital has built a new building and restored older ones.

However, NYU Langone’s biggest effort towards resilience is new flood barriers around campus designed to protect against a storm surge seven feet above the level caused by Hurricane Sandy. The campus also has a 12-foot steel storm barrier on the loading ramp that can be raised hydraulically or manually. Valves on drains and sewers to prevent backflows outside the streets from being flooded; and steel gates and doors to contain the flood at critical points throughout the facility.

But building walls are not going to keep the effects of climate change away. This will be due to the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions across society, Schwabacher said.

“We are very, very confident that we will be protected, but we know that the next disaster will be different from the last.”

Categories
Business

Shopper Costs Rose in April as Buyers Frightened About Inflation

Consumer prices are expected to soar sharply in April data released on Wednesday. This is mainly due to a technical quirk. However, these investors will be watching closely as they attempt to determine whether inflation could change Federal Reserve policy.

The consumer price index is likely to have risen by 3.6 percent by April, predict economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The price increase from March to April is likely to be more restrained at 0.2 percent. The Ministry of Labor will release the numbers at 8:30 a.m.

The annual jump would be the fastest increase since 2011 and a sign that prices are rising as inflation numbers show extremely weak readings from 2020 and to a lesser extent as supply chain disruptions start to bite and demand increases.

Central bankers believe that the surge in prices will be short-lived and have made it clear that they want to look beyond a temporary spike in setting policy. The tech quirks at work in April will only last a few months, officials point out, and while it’s less clear when bottlenecks will be fixed, they are expected to work their way through the system at some point when businesses ramp up production to meet demand.

Wall Street and some economists fear, however, that the rapidly recovering economy, huge economic stimulus from Washington, and pent-up consumer demand could make price gains stronger or more sustainable than the Fed can tolerate.

An essential part of the central bank’s role is to contain price increases. So any likely sustained acceleration in prices could lead them to recall policies that keep money cheap and keep credit flowing. Decreasing support would likely cause stock prices to decline.

While the Fed defines its inflation target using a separate metric, the Personal Consumption Spending Index, this metric is based on data from the CPI and is also expected to go beyond the central bank’s target. Fed officials are targeting annual inflation averaging 2 percent.

It was clear to central bankers that if, contrary to their expectations, there were signs of sustained price increases, they would react. But they have also stated that they want to avoid prematurely withdrawing support from the economy, which could result in the labor market being incompletely healed and longer-term inflation in danger of reverting to uncomfortably low levels where it has been for much of the time have been bogged down in the last decade.

Lael Brainard, a Fed governor, said during a speech Tuesday that “staying patient through the temporary wave associated with the reopening will help ensure economic momentum to” achieve our goals. “

Categories
World News

Why Jerusalem’s Aqsa Mosque Is an Arab-Israeli Fuse

The violent clashes between Palestinians and Israeli security forces at the Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem this month reflect their importance as part of one of the most controversial religious areas in the Holy Land.

Here are some basics of the mosque site, from its importance over the centuries to three major religions, to why it’s such a hot spot today.

The Aqsa Mosque is one of the most sacred structures of the Islamic faith.

The mosque sits on 35 hectares of land known as Haram al-Sharif or Noble Sanctuary by Muslims and the Temple Mount by Jews. The site is part of the old city of Jerusalem, which is sacred to Christians, Jews and Muslims.

In Arabic, “aqsa” means furthest away, and in this case it refers to Islamic scriptures and their account of Prophet Muhammad traveling from Mecca to the mosque one night to pray and then ascending to heaven.

The mosque, which can accommodate 5,000 worshipers, was probably completed at the beginning of the 8th century and is located opposite the Dome of the Rock, the Islamic shrine with the golden dome that is a widely recognized symbol of Jerusalem. Muslims consider the entire site sacred, and many worshipers fill its courtyards to pray on holidays.

For Jews, the Temple Mount, known in Hebrew as Har Habayit, is the holiest place, as two ancient temples stood here – the first, according to the Bible, was built by King Solomon and later destroyed by the Babylonians; and the second stood for nearly 600 years before the Roman Empire destroyed it in the first century.

The United Nations Education, Science and Culture Organization (UNESCO) has classified the Old City of Jerusalem and its walls as a World Heritage Site, which means that it is “of outstanding international importance and therefore deserves special protection”.

During the Arab-Israeli War of 1967, Israel captured and annexed East Jerusalem, including the Old City, from Jordan. Israel later declared a united Jerusalem its capital, although this move was never recognized internationally.

Under a delicate status quo arrangement, a Jordan-funded and controlled Islamic trust called Waqf continued to administer the Aqsa Mosque and Dome of the Rock as it had for decades, a special role affirmed in the 1994 Israeli peace treaty with Jordan .

The Israeli security forces are still present on the premises and are coordinating with the Waqf. Jews and Christians are allowed to visit, but unlike Muslims, they are prohibited from praying for reasons of the status quo. (Jews pray just below the sacred plateau on the western wall, the remains of a retaining wall that once surrounded the Temple Mount.)

Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Updated

May 12, 2021, 3:00 p.m. ET

Tensions over what critics are calling the arrangement Discrimination against non-Muslims has turned into violence at regular intervals.

Adding to the tensions is Israel’s annual celebration of Jerusalem Day, an official holiday to commemorate the conquest of the entire city. The celebration, which last took place on Monday, is a provocation for many Palestinians, including residents of the eastern part of Jerusalem. The Palestinians want East Jerusalem to be the capital of a future Palestinian state – a perspective that seems increasingly distant.

Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have said they have no intention of changing the status quo.

But some Israeli religious groups have long pushed for the right to pray locally. In April, the Jordanian Foreign Ministry officially complained about large numbers of Jewish visitors to the site, calling it a violation of the status quo.

In the weeks leading up to Monday’s violence in Al Aqsa, tensions built between some Jews and Palestinians over issues unrelated to the mosque grounds.

These included violent clashes between Israelis and Palestinians that broke out in the old city a few weeks ago. Some Palestinians attacked Orthodox Jews in Jerusalem, and an extremist Jewish supremacy group held a march in which participants sang “Death to the Arabs.”

The Palestinians were also angry that the police had banned them from gathering in a favorite spot in the old city during the first few weeks of the holy month of Ramadan.

In another spark of tension, Palestinians have fought with Israeli police over the expected eviction of Palestinian residents of the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood in East Jerusalem to make way for Israeli settlements to be built.

The clashes have come after the Israeli government is in political limbo after four undecided elections in the past two years and after Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas indefinitely postponed the Palestinian parliamentary elections scheduled for later this month. It would have been the first such ballot since 2006.

Bitter accusations and hardened attitudes have been reflected in all the clashes over the religious shrines in Jerusalem’s Old City, but some are particularly notable for having shaped Israeli politics.

In 1990, for example, deadly riots exploded after a group of Jewish extremists tried to lay the foundation stone for a temple to replace the two destroyed in ancient times. The violence resulted in widespread condemnation of Israel, including by the United States.

In 2000, there was a site visit to make Jewish claims, led by right-wing Israeli politician Ariel Sharon – then Israel’s opposition leader – that sparked an explosive attack of Israeli-Palestinian violence that led to the well-known Palestinian uprising second intifada.

A crisis broke out in 2017 after three Arab-Israeli citizens shot dead two Israeli Druze police officers on the premises. This prompted the Israeli authorities to restrict access to the site and install metal detectors and cameras.

Arab outrage over these security measures led to increased violence and tension with Jordan, which required US diplomatic mediation. The metal detectors have been removed.

Patrick Kingsley and Isabel Kershner contributed to the coverage.

Categories
Business

WHO says it accounts for 50% of reported instances final week

A Covon-19 coronavirus patient rests in a banquet room temporarily converted into a Covid care center in New Delhi on May 10, 2021.

Arun Sankar | AFP | Getty Images

India’s daily Covid-19 death toll hit another record high on Wednesday as the World Health Organization said the country accounted for half of all reported cases worldwide last week.

Health ministry data showed that at least 4,205 people died within 24 hours – the largest increase in deaths in a day the South Asian country has reported since the pandemic began. However, reports suggest that India’s death toll is under counting.

A total of 23 million cases have been reported in India and more than 254,000 people have died.

The World Health Organization said India accounted for half of all cases reported worldwide last week, as well as 30% of the world’s deaths.

India has reported more than 300,000 cases per day for 21 consecutive days. However, on Tuesday, the Ministry of Health said its data showed a net decrease in total active cases over a 24-hour period for the first time in 61 days.

The second wave began around February and accelerated until March and April, after large crowds, mostly without masks, were allowed to gather for religious festivals and election campaigns in different parts of the country.

India’s health system is under tremendous pressure from the surge in cases despite the influx of international aid, including oxygen concentrators, bottles and generation equipment, and the antiviral drug remdesivir.

To ease pressure on healthcare workers, India is recruiting 400 former medical officers from the armed forces, the Defense Ministry said on Sunday.

WHO update on India, South Asia

In its latest weekly epidemiological update on the pandemic, the UN Department of Health said it was observing “worrying trends” in India’s neighboring countries, where cases are also increasing.

In Nepal, for example, nearly 50% of all people tested for Covid-19 are reported to be infected as the inland struggles with a second wave. Vaccines are said to have run out when India stopped exporting given the situation at home.

The WHO recently classified variant B.1.617 of Covid, which was first discovered in India, as a matter of concern, indicating that it has become a global threat. The variant has three sub-lines, “which differ by a few, but possibly relevant mutations in the spike protein as well as by the worldwide prevalence of detection,” said the WHO in the report.

India’s dramatic increase in cases has raised questions about the role of Covid variants such as the B.1.617 and B.1.1.7, which were first discovered in the UK.

The International Health Authority said it recently carried out a risk assessment of the situation in India and found that the resurgence and acceleration of Covid-19 transmission in the country have several likely factors may have increased portability, as well as mass gatherings and lower compliance with public health and social measures.

“The exact contributions of these factors to increased transmission in India are not precisely known,” said the WHO.

Elsewhere, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will not personally attend a G7 summit in the UK next month due to the situation in Covid-19 at home, the Indian Foreign Ministry said. Modi was invited as a special guest by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the ministry said.

Categories
Politics

Detentions at Southwest Border Attain 20-12 months Excessive

U.S. Customs and Border Protection arrested 178,622 people on the border with Mexico in April. This is the highest number of arrests in at least two decades.

About 63 percent of detainees who attempted to cross the southwest border have been expelled from the United States, the agency said in a press release. The number of minors taken into custody fell by 12 percent to 13,962 from March, according to the agency.

The number of immigrants imprisoned on the southwestern border has risen for twelve consecutive months, according to customs and border guards. President Biden promised a more humane approach to immigration than President Donald J. Trump. Some immigrants, many of whom are fleeing the poor economic conditions in Mexico and Central America, hope that it will be easier for them to enter the United States.

While Mr Biden promised to overturn some of Mr Trump’s policies, he urged immigrants to stay home and gave customs and border guards more powers to send back detained immigrants in accordance with applicable coronavirus protocols.

Categories
Health

‘CDC’s credibility is eroding’ amid conflicting masks steerage, ex-Obama official says

Dr. Kavita Patel criticizes the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for not effectively updating their guidelines on Covid masks.

“I think the CDC’s credibility is waning as fast as the coronavirus cases,” Patel said on CNBC’s The News with Shepard Smith. “This is not good news because we need guidance in the workplace, we need school counseling.”

“There are men and women working outside on phone lines and power lines on the lines and they still wear masks because we make it up without these instructions,” Patel said. “This actually puts more of us at risk, so it is time to step up. These are the difficult parts of government-public health communication, but we desperately need someone to do this.”

Maine Republican Senator Susan Collins said her confidence in the agency was being undermined by conflicting CDC guidelines.

“I used to have the utmost respect for instructions from the CDC,” Collins said during a congressional hearing on Tuesday’s response to the pandemic. “I’ve always viewed the CDC as the gold standard. I don’t remember.”

The CDC did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

Meanwhile, Alaska Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski has stated that federal mask requirements put fishermen’s work at risk.

“You’re on a boat. The winds are howling. Your mask is damp,” Murkowski said during the hearing. “Tell me how anyone thinks this is a sensible and sensible policy?”

Patel, who served in the Obama administration as political director for the Bureau of Intergovernmental Affairs and Public Engagement, echoed Murkowski’s concerns.

Categories
Business

Man Purchased Lamborghini With PPP Mortgage, Prosecutors Say

A California man who received more than $ 5 million in paycheck protection program loans to help businesses in trouble during the coronavirus pandemic was arrested Friday on Friday on federal bank fraud and other charges after prosecutors said he had used the money to buy a Lamborghini and other federal luxury cars.

The man, Mustafa Qadiri, 38, from Irvine, was charged by a federal grand jury on four cases of bank fraud, four cases of wire fraud, one case of aggravated identity theft and six cases of money laundering, the U.S. attorney in the Central District of California announced.

Prosecutors said Mr. Qadiri’s federal loan efforts began in late May 2020 and grossed him nearly $ 5.1 million by early June. Mr. Qadiri is accused of using that money on a shopping spree that included buying a Ferrari, a Lamborghini and a Bentley and paying for “wasteful vacations,” all of which are banned under the paycheck protection program, prosecutors said.

Bilal A. Essayli, a lawyer for Mr. Qadiri, declined to comment.

Mr. Qadiri filed applications for Covid-19 relief funds with three different banks to help four California-based companies that were actually down, according to prosecutors. In addition to submitting fraudulent company information and “changed bank account details”, a statement from the prosecutor said Mr. Qadiri was using someone else’s name, social security number and signature on applications.

Some of Mr. Qadiri’s assets have already been confiscated, prosecutors said. Federal agents seized a 2011 Ferrari 458 Italia registered with All American Capital Holdings, one of the companies listed on Mr. Qadiri’s PPP loan applications. A 2018 Lamborghini Aventador S registered with the same company was also confiscated.

The 2011 Ferrari 458 Italia can sell for more than $ 100,000, according to Cars.com. It has a V-8 engine and 570 horsepower and can go from zero to 62 mph in 3.4 seconds. Says the rating.

Another popular website for auto enthusiasts, Kelley Blue Book, has a listing for a 2011 Ferrari 458 Italia that sells for $ 179,000. The website also has a 2018 report on the Lamborghini Aventador S that states, “There is no better car to showcase your success or to stroke your ego.” This car has a V-12 engine and 740 horsepower and can go from zero to 60 mph in less than three seconds. According to the test report, one of its disadvantages is: “The Aventador is neither the most comfortable car to drive in, nor is it terribly efficient. It deserves an EPA estimated at 10 mpg for city driving. “

On Lamborghini.com, the website describing the Aventador S has the slogan “Dare your ego”.

Prosecutors said in a statement that another luxury vehicle Mr. Qadiri bought with PPP money, a 2020 Bentley Continental GT Coupe, had also been confiscated.

A US law firm spokesman said that if Mr. Qadiri were convicted, the charges against him would result in a maximum sentence of 302 years in prison.

Dozens of people have been arrested and charged with misusing pandemic aid funds. Mr. Qadiri is at least the third person to be charged with buying a Lamborghini.

In July, a Florida man who had received nearly $ 4 million was arrested on bank fraud and other charges after buying a blue Lamborghini for $ 318,497. In August, a Texas man who received more than $ 1.6 million from the same federal program was arrested on bank fraud and other charges after buying a 2019 Lamborghini Urus for $ 233,337.60, among other charges.

In February, Florida man David T. Hines pleaded guilty to wire fraud with a maximum sentence of up to 20 years in prison. He is waiting to be sentenced. The case against Texas man Lee Price III continues.

Categories
Entertainment

Metropolitan Opera Reaches Deal With Union Representing Refrain

The Metropolitan Opera, whose efforts to cut its workers’ wages to survive the pandemic had embroiled them in a bitter dispute with their unions and threatened to derail its planned reopening in September, announced Tuesday it was one I reached an agreement with the union representing his choir and other workers.

The union, the American Guild of Musical Artists, which also represents soloists, dancers, actors and stage managers, is the first of the three largest unions to reach such a deal after months of sometimes bitter separation between work and management over such depth and The pandemic wage cut should be permanent. The Met had tried to cut wages for its highest-paid unions by 30 percent, which would cut these takeaway workers by around 20 percent.

The terms of the contract – the culmination of 14 weeks of negotiations – were not disclosed immediately. The company said they would remain confidential until the union voted to ratify the agreement on May 24.

In the past few weeks, New York officials have taken steps to ease restrictions on live performances, and in the past few days several major Broadway shows have announced their intention to resume performances in September and October. Whether the Met can reopen in September after the pandemic forced the opera house to remain closed for more than a year depends on how quickly it can resolve its remaining labor problems.

Peter Gelb, the Met’s general manager, said in a statement that he was grateful to the guild “to recognize the extraordinary economic challenges facing the Met in the coming seasons”.

Leonard Egert, the guild’s executive director, said in a statement that the new contract “would ensure that the Met becomes a fairer and better place to work”.

“We are excited to strike a new deal at the most difficult time in the history of the performing arts,” he said.

The Met’s deal with the guild is just one step towards reopening. The union that represents its stage workers, Local One of the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees, has been locked out since December after both sides failed to reach an agreement on wage cuts. Without his union stagehands, it will likely be impossible to start performing. And the union that represents the Met orchestra is still negotiating their contract.

The opera company, the nation’s largest performing arts organization, says it has lost $ 150 million in revenue since the coronavirus pandemic – including ticket sales for the Opera House and its cinema simulcasts, as well as revenue from shops and restaurants forced it to close its doors more than a year ago. When the Met reopens in September, it will have been 18 months without performing live at their opera house.

The Met’s management has argued that such a long period of closure – and the uncertainty about audience return at a time when New York tourism could take years to return to preandemic levels – is financial sacrifices of its own Employees. It is said that half of the proposed wage cuts would be restored once ticket receipts and core donations returned to prepandemic levels. Some major American orchestras and opera companies have already negotiated wage cuts with their workers to help them survive the pandemic.

After the opera house closed, the members of the orchestra and choir went unpaid for almost a year. Then the company brought them to the negotiating table with an offer of up to $ 1,543 per week, less than half what they normally get.

Union members plan to gather outside Lincoln Center on Thursday to show solidarity during the tense negotiations with management. Union leaders have accused the Met’s management of using the pandemic as a reason to force concessions from work.

If approved, the agreement with the guild will take effect on August 1st. Union members will continue to receive partial payments for the time being.

Categories
Health

Why Haven’t You Scheduled Your Covid Vaccine?

The rate at which people schedule appointments for their Covid-19 recordings is decreasing across the country. Are you one of the people who didn’t get the vaccine?

The Well Desk wants to hear from readers who are hesitant to get the shot – or have questions on behalf of someone who has concerns. What would you like more information about? Do you have any new questions about adolescents and vaccinations? Are you afraid of side effects or have you read conflicting information from different sources? Tell us what you want to know and we will find the answers.

How to submit a question: You can use the form below to send us your questions.

Categories
Business

economist says states ought to resolve on lockdowns

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is under increasing pressure to demand another nationwide lockdown in India as the overwhelmed health system struggles to fight a devastating second wave of Covid-19.

However, a member of Modi’s economic advisory board says that state governments should instead have the final say on social restrictions.

“All in all, the current policy of leaving it to different states to take local conditions into account and adopt a lockdown strategy – I think it’s a better one overall,” said V. Anantha Nageswaran, part-time member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Board, said Tuesday to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia”.

Calls for a national lockdown – as imposed between late March and May last year – have grown louder as the Indian health system deteriorates and patients suffer from the lack of hospital beds, medical oxygen and drugs needed to treat the disease Disease will be rejected.

Leading coronavirus adviser to the White House, Anthony Fauci, said in an interview with ABC News on Sunday that India must be shut down in order to break transmission chains.

So far, the central government has resisted lockdown calls and allowed states to tighten their own local restrictions, including lockdowns and curfews.

Instead, the government is focusing on delivering global aid – including oxygen concentrators, bottles and generation equipment, and the antiviral drug Remdesivir – to affected areas. The country is also stepping up its vaccination campaign.

People aged 18 and over waiting to be vaccinated against Covid-19 at a vaccination center on the Radha Soami Satsang site operated by BLK Max Hospital on May 4, 2021 in New Delhi, India.

Hindustan Times | Hindustan Times | Getty Images

Nageswaran stated that at this point, the benefits of a statewide lockdown will not significantly outweigh the costs. He added that in cases the increase is still relatively localized in different pockets rather than nationally.

India has reported more than 300,000 cases per day for 20 consecutive days. However, on Tuesday, the Ministry of Health said its data showed a net decrease in total active cases over a 24-hour period for the first time in 61 days.

India’s death toll from coronavirus is close to 250,000.

Economic growth path

Last year’s national lockdown held India back from growth and pushed the economy into a technical recession. Before the second wave of infections, the economy was slowly on the mend – but economists are now predicting that the recovery will be delayed given the current situation.

There is a growing likelihood that localized lockdowns are likely to last through June or beyond. Given the current rate of vaccination, any attempt to fully reopen the economy could lead to a potential third wave of infections, Kunal Kundu, Indian economist with Societe Generale investment bank, said in a recent note.

Kundu said the bank had forecast real GDP growth of 9.5% year-over-year for India’s fiscal year ending March 2022, which is below the market consensus. But even this goal is no longer tenable, as it was assumed that the economy will open sooner due to the rapid pace of vaccination.

“With localized lockdowns through June and beyond, this increases the downside risk to our existing growth forecast. We now expect real GDP to grow by 8.5% for the current year,” said Kundu.

He added that India’s ability to chase the new variants will be key to preventing subsequent waves. To do this, the country must “provide more fiscal resources for genome monitoring and vaccine research” and ensure that all temporary Covid-19 care centers are still in operation, he said.

Nageswaran added that if India’s Covid-19 cases don’t peak in the next two weeks and drag on into the next quarter, it will be more difficult to match the country’s pre-pandemic growth trajectory through fiscal 2022-2023.